Time Line Baseline Year Definition
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Baseline Profile — Southern Agro-Pastoral: Cattle, Camels and Sorghum FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone and Population Figures Event Production # 1990 Normal year DHUSA-MAREEB Government Harvest good, BELET WEYNE collapse normal rains, some # stocks XUDUR 1991 Bad year # Fighting between Bad Gu, near normal SDM, USC, SPM Deyr More Information Available: # BAYDHABA Lack of space restricts this profile and SNF - Looting GARBAHAREY # to just some of the details on this 1992 Worst year # JOWHAR baseline. FSAU has further Stocks depleted No harvest, information available on request; Famine, UNTAF no pasture, MOGADISHU contact [email protected] . intervention no stocks; # MERKA 1993 Normal year BUAALE UNOSOM starts Good harvest, # Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop IDP’s and refugees good pasture; Bakol 212,500 124,720 59% return. increased livestock Bay 600,500 227,345 25% prices and herd sizes; Gedo 385,000 61,450 16% 1994 Good year Hiran 175,500 82,130 47% Fighting in Wajid. Good crops, # KISMAYO L. Juba 295,000 17,500 6% WFP starts FFW good health and programmes. increased livestock L. Shabelle 619,920 37,440 6% prices and herd sizes; M. Juba 240,000 67,000 28% 1995 Normal year M. Shabelle 346,870 118,729 34% Fighting in Wajid Good harvest, Total 2,875,290 736,314 and Hudur. UN and good health and NGOs evacuated. increased livestock Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 prices herd sizes; 1996 Bad year Fighting SNA and Fields abandoned, local RRA. livestock migrate; Population Description of LZ displaced. • The LZ is found in all southern regions especially in Bakol, Hiran, Gedo, Bay, Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba. 1997 Bad Year • This is a marginal agricultural LZ and livestock is more important than crops for most households. Heavy mining. Bad crop and human • All three species, cattle, shoats and camel are found all over the LZ. Sorghum is the main crop but cowpea and maize Villages burnt and health; floods and people evacuated. soil erosion. are also common. Some may plant tomatoes and sesame, while others harvest honey, especially in Bay, Bakol, and 1998 Middle Shabelle regions. Bakol recaptured • Main water sources are shallow wells, boreholes and natural and artificial water catchments. from SNA. • In general market access is reasonable as this LZ is generally found not very far from towns. 1999 Below Normal Year • Seasonal population movement, especially of stronger family members to urban centres and riverine farms for Fighting in Bay & Poor crop production employment is not uncommon. Livestock movement is common in the dry seasons, especially towards rivers. Bakol regions, as in rain-fed areas, • Variations exist within the LZ, in terms of livestock composition, type of other crops grown, market dependence, etc. well as North Gedo poor/erratic rainfall in most parts For example, donkeys are more commonly found in Hiran and Gedo than Bay and Bakol. 2000 Good Year • The most vulnerable are the poor and the lower rungs of the middle wealth groups because their livestock are few and RRA captured Bumper harvest in farm sizes are small and low yielding. They have very little access to remittances and community support is generally Baidoa – fighting Bay & Bakol, good limited because the LZ is generally resource-poor and the better-off WG is small. continues in North harvests elsewhere • Interaction is with pastoral (camel and shoats), riverine, urban and high-potential sorghum LZ’s, for seasonal grazing Gedo except North Gedo and water, employment, trade and exchange. 2001 Below normal Poor rainfall in Gu harvest for most areas season except Wanle Weyne. Gedo very Bad 2002 Normal to Poor Wealth Breakdown Intra-clan fighting in Slightly below Wealth is measured by livestock rather than land cultivated. Baidoa normal in Bay, Poor in North Gedo, Bakol and Hiran Baseline Year Definition: Poor Middle Better off Sorghum yields range from 250-400 30-45% 50-60% 5 –15% kg/Ha. Maize yields range from 200-400 Wealth Group Characteristic kg/Ha. Poor (25-35%) Middle Better off In a baseline year, terms of trade are: HH size 6 HH size 7 HH size 8 0-3 camels 4-6 camels 15→ camels 1 L milk = 750-800 g sorghum 0-5 cattle 5-10 cattle 15→ cattle during Gu and Deyr seasons 5-20 shoats 20-50 shoats 50-100 shoats 1 local quality goat = 1 bag (50 kg) Land size: 1 - 3 ha Land size: 3 - 7 ha Land size: 4 - 6 ha of sorghum; better rate for cereals in Annual income: Sshs 220.000 Annual income: Sshs 400.000 Bay region Very Poor (5-10%) 1 export quality goat = 1½ bags (75 0-1 camels, 0-2 cattle, 5-9 shoats, kg) of sorghum and 1-2 ha land POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Total income = Sshs 220.000 Total income = Sshs 400.000 Wild foods Livestock sales Milk/meat 0-5% Other Shoes/clothes 0-5% Own products Honey 0-5% 10-15% Cereals/pulses Fuel/soap/light 0-5% 5-10% 50-60% 10-20% Purchase 5-15% 35-45% Milk/ghee Remit/zakaa 10-15% 0-10% Self-employment Wild foods Employment 15-25% 0-5% Food 70-80% 20-30% ¾ Foods purchased include cereals, sugar & oil ¾ Employment includes agricultural labour, ¾ Majority of the poor expenditure is on food – ¾ Own production of sorghum and beans providing mudding walls, portaging and herding. cereal, sugar and oil. 2 meals per day for 6-7 months. ¾ Self-employment includes collection and sale of ¾ Non-food expenditure includes household items ¾ Poor receive 1-2 bags (50 kg) of cereal as gifts in bush products, honey and dik-dik sale. such as clothes, shoes, kerosene and medicine. the Gu season. ¾ Livestock products include the sale of ghee, ¾ Poor households do not employ others except ¾ Cows and goats milk converted into ghee or eggs, limited milk and male livestock. skimmed milk. ¾ Ghee is sent to Bosasso & Yirowe markets. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Total income = Sshs 400.000 Total income = Sshs 400.000 Milk/meat Koranic school Remit/zakaa Livestock sale Shoes/clothes 0-10% 0-5% 15-25% 25-35% Medicine 5-10% Purchase 0-5% 25-35% Other Cereal sales 20-25% Food 10-20% Own 45-55% production Fuel/soap Agric. input 55-65% Milk/ghee /light 0-10% 30-40% 5-10% Gifts 0-5% ¾ Significant proportion comes from cereal ¾ Main income from livestock products & sales ¾ Typical middle household will employ 5-7 production. ¾ Rainy seasonal source of income from honey sales labourers for agricultural activities. Cash ¾ Purchase sugar, oil, meat, cereal & tea. ¾ Remittance from relatives in urban centres in payment as well as 1-2 meals per day. Somalia – average amount received ¾ Additional employment of herd boys/girls & ¾ Sshs 50,000 – 100,000 per month water collectors ¾ Assets are kept in livestock and investments in petty trade. SEASONAL CALENDAR Agric. Labour (land preparation, Sorghum & other crop planting RISK FACTORS ploughing & ridging) APRIL Milk production increases • Crop failure Collection of grasses & poles, Increase in livestock prices • Access to water charcoal & hunting Kable, other wild vegetables • Access to pasture consumed • Access to market Increase in honey supply JILAAL GU Increase in cereal prices Decrease in milk supply Main dry Main rainy Peak season for ghee season (long, season production Decrease in livestock prices hot and dry) Agric. labour available Sorghum harvest (planting and weeding) COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Moderate ghee supply DEYR HAGAY Crop harvest Reduced ghee production Short rains Cool Dry • More sale of livestock/livestock products Decrease in honey (wild bees) season Increase in honey production (domestic bees) • More seeking of employment and self employment Increase in cereal prices Decrease in cereal prices • Bush product collection/sale and hunting Agricultural labour (Planting Increase in herding, labour seeking, • Herd migration & weeding) hunting, and collection of bush • Family splitting (for labour and herd products (poles, grasses, charcoal) Cowpea harvest migration) OCTOBER Planting Camels near farms, increase in milk supply Prepared by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU), with assistance from Save the Children (SC-UK) for Somalia. While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU nor any of its supporters or partners endorse any figure or political boundary as definitive. Contact FSAU, PO Box 1230, Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: (254-2) 3741299 / 3748297 / 3745734/ 3752062 / 3752063 1.1. Baseline Profile — Southern Inland Pastoral: Camels, Goats and Sheep FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1992 Bad year Al-Itihad forces No rain, low milk present in region. production & poor Drought & famine pasture, 1993 Normal/Good year More Information Available: UNOSOM starts good harvest & livestock Lack of space restricts this profile Food aid available in good condition to just some of the details on this improved security baseline. FSAU has further information available on request; 1994 Normal year contact [email protected] . WFP starts FFW Medium rains, livestock programmes prices normal pastures Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ LZ as % of total Reg. Pop Bakol 215,180 71,009 33% 1995 Bad year Low food stocks. Gu & Deyr failed. Bay 655,686 52,455 8% Ethiopian troops Livestock production was Gedo 385,380 211,959 55% invade Gedo poor. Hiran 280,590 86,983 31% 1996 Good year L. Juba 329,240 59,263 18% IDP’s from Good crop & livestock L. Shabelle 891,000 80,190 9% Bay/Bakol in Luuq. production. SNF captured. M. Juba 248,620 32,320 13% M. Shabelle 409,630 69,637 17% 1997 Poor Year Total 3,415,326 663,816 El-Niño floods.