Time Line Baseline Year Definition

Baseline Profile — Southern Agro-Pastoral: Cattle, Camels and Sorghum

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone and Population Figures Event Production # 1990 Normal year DHUSA-MAREEB Government Harvest good, BELET WEYNE collapse normal rains, some # stocks XUDUR 1991 Bad year # Fighting between Bad Gu, near normal SDM, USC, SPM Deyr More Information Available: # BAYDHABA Lack of space restricts this profile and SNF - Looting GARBAHAREY # 1992 Worst year JOWHAR to just some of the details on this # baseline. FSAU has further Stocks depleted No harvest, information available on request; Famine, UNTAF no pasture, MOGADISHU contact [email protected] . intervention no stocks; # MERKA 1993 Normal year BUAALE UNOSOM starts Good harvest, # Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop IDP’s and refugees good pasture; Bakol 212,500 124,720 59% return. increased livestock Bay 600,500 227,345 25% prices and herd sizes; Gedo 385,000 61,450 16% 1994 Good year Hiran 175,500 82,130 47% Fighting in Wajid. Good crops, # KISMAYO L. Juba 295,000 17,500 6% WFP starts FFW good health and programmes. increased livestock L. Shabelle 619,920 37,440 6% prices and herd sizes; M. Juba 240,000 67,000 28% 1995 Normal year M. Shabelle 346,870 118,729 34% Fighting in Wajid Good harvest, Total 2,875,290 736,314 and Hudur. UN and good health and NGOs evacuated. increased livestock Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 prices herd sizes; 1996 Bad year Fighting SNA and Fields abandoned, local RRA. livestock migrate; Population Description of LZ displaced. • The LZ is found in all southern regions especially in Bakol, Hiran, Gedo, Bay, Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba. 1997 Bad Year • This is a marginal agricultural LZ and livestock is more important than crops for most households. Heavy mining. Bad crop and human • All three species, cattle, shoats and camel are found all over the LZ. Sorghum is the main crop but cowpea and maize Villages burnt and health; floods and are also common. Some may plant tomatoes and sesame, while others harvest honey, especially in Bay, Bakol, and people evacuated. soil erosion. 1998 Middle Shabelle regions. Bakol recaptured • Main water sources are shallow wells, boreholes and natural and artificial water catchments. from SNA. • In general market access is reasonable as this LZ is generally found not very far from towns. 1999 Below Normal Year • Seasonal population movement, especially of stronger family members to urban centres and riverine farms for Fighting in Bay & Poor crop production employment is not uncommon. Livestock movement is common in the dry seasons, especially towards rivers. Bakol regions, as in rain-fed areas, • Variations exist within the LZ, in terms of livestock composition, type of other crops grown, market dependence, etc. well as North Gedo poor/erratic rainfall in most parts For example, donkeys are more commonly found in Hiran and Gedo than Bay and Bakol. 2000 Good Year • The most vulnerable are the poor and the lower rungs of the middle wealth groups because their livestock are few and RRA captured Bumper harvest in farm sizes are small and low yielding. They have very little access to remittances and community support is generally Baidoa – fighting Bay & Bakol, good limited because the LZ is generally resource-poor and the better-off WG is small. continues in North harvests elsewhere • Interaction is with pastoral (camel and shoats), riverine, urban and high-potential sorghum LZ’s, for seasonal grazing Gedo except North Gedo and water, employment, trade and exchange. 2001 Below normal Poor rainfall in Gu harvest for most areas season except Wanle Weyne. Gedo very Bad 2002 Normal to Poor Wealth Breakdown Intra-clan fighting in Slightly below Wealth is measured by livestock rather than land cultivated. Baidoa normal in Bay, Poor in North Gedo, Bakol and Hiran

Baseline Year Definition:

Poor Middle Better off Sorghum yields range from 250-400 30-45% 50-60% 5 –15% kg/Ha. Maize yields range from 200-400 Wealth Group Characteristic kg/Ha.

Poor (25-35%) Middle Better off In a baseline year, terms of trade are: HH size 6 HH size 7 HH size 8 0-3 camels 4-6 camels 15→ camels 1 L milk = 750-800 g sorghum 0-5 cattle 5-10 cattle 15→ cattle during Gu and Deyr seasons 5-20 shoats 20-50 shoats 50-100 shoats 1 local quality goat = 1 bag (50 kg) Land size: 1 - 3 ha Land size: 3 - 7 ha Land size: 4 - 6 ha of sorghum; better rate for cereals in Annual income: Sshs 220.000 Annual income: Sshs 400.000 Bay region Very Poor (5-10%) 1 export quality goat = 1½ bags (75 0-1 camels, 0-2 cattle, 5-9 shoats, kg) of sorghum and 1-2 ha land

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Total income = Sshs 220.000 Total income = Sshs 400.000 Wild foods Livestock sales Milk/meat 0-5% Other Shoes/clothes 0-5% Own products Honey 0-5% 10-15% Cereals/pulses Fuel/soap/light 0-5% 5-10% 50-60% 10-20% Purchase 5-15% 35-45% Milk/ghee Remit/zakaa 10-15% 0-10% Self-employment Wild foods Employment 15-25% 0-5% Food 70-80% 20-30%

¾ Foods purchased include cereals, sugar & oil ¾ Employment includes agricultural labour, ¾ Majority of the poor expenditure is on food – ¾ Own production of sorghum and beans providing mudding walls, portaging and herding. cereal, sugar and oil. 2 meals per day for 6-7 months. ¾ Self-employment includes collection and sale of ¾ Non-food expenditure includes household items ¾ Poor receive 1-2 bags (50 kg) of cereal as gifts in bush products, honey and dik-dik sale. such as clothes, shoes, kerosene and medicine. the Gu season. ¾ Livestock products include the sale of ghee, ¾ Poor households do not employ others except ¾ Cows and goats milk converted into ghee or eggs, limited milk and male livestock. skimmed milk. ¾ Ghee is sent to Bosasso & Yirowe markets.

MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Total income = Sshs 400.000 Total income = Sshs 400.000

Milk/meat Koranic school Remit/zakaa Livestock sale Shoes/clothes 0-10% 0-5% 15-25% 25-35% Medicine 5-10%

Purchase 0-5% 25-35% Other Cereal sales 20-25% Food 10-20% Own 45-55%

production Fuel/soap Agric. input 55-65% Milk/ghee /light 0-10% 30-40% 5-10% Gifts 0-5%

¾ Significant proportion comes from cereal ¾ Main income from livestock products & sales ¾ Typical middle household will employ 5-7 production. ¾ Rainy seasonal source of income from honey sales labourers for agricultural activities. Cash ¾ Purchase sugar, oil, meat, cereal & tea. ¾ Remittance from relatives in urban centres in payment as well as 1-2 meals per day. Somalia – average amount received ¾ Additional employment of herd boys/girls & ¾ Sshs 50,000 – 100,000 per month water collectors ¾ Assets are kept in livestock and investments in petty trade.

SEASONAL CALENDAR Agric. Labour (land preparation, Sorghum & other crop planting RISK FACTORS ploughing & ridging) APRIL Milk production increases • Crop failure Collection of grasses & poles, Increase in livestock prices • Access to water charcoal & hunting Kable, other wild vegetables • Access to pasture consumed • Access to market Increase in honey supply JILAAL GU Increase in cereal prices Decrease in milk supply Main dry Main rainy Peak season for ghee season (long, season production Decrease in livestock prices hot and dry) Agric. labour available Sorghum harvest (planting and weeding) COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Moderate ghee supply DEYR HAGAY Crop harvest Reduced ghee production Short rains Cool Dry • More sale of livestock/livestock products Decrease in honey (wild bees) season Increase in honey production (domestic bees) • More seeking of employment and self employment Increase in cereal prices Decrease in cereal prices • Bush product collection/sale and hunting Agricultural labour (Planting Increase in herding, labour seeking, • Herd migration & weeding) hunting, and collection of bush • Family splitting (for labour and herd products (poles, grasses, charcoal) Cowpea harvest migration) OCTOBER Planting Camels near farms, increase in milk supply

Prepared by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU), with assistance from Save the Children (SC-UK) for Somalia. While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU nor any of its supporters or partners endorse any figure or political boundary as definitive. Contact FSAU, PO Box 1230, Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: (254-2) 3741299 / 3748297 / 3745734/ 3752062 / 3752063

1.1. Baseline Profile — Southern Inland Pastoral: Camels, Goats and Sheep

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1992 Bad year Al-Itihad forces No rain, low milk present in region. production & poor Drought & famine pasture, 1993 Normal/Good year More Information Available: UNOSOM starts good harvest & livestock Lack of space restricts this profile Food aid available in good condition to just some of the details on this improved security baseline. FSAU has further information available on request; 1994 Normal year contact [email protected] . WFP starts FFW Medium rains, livestock programmes prices normal pastures Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ LZ as % of total Reg. Pop Bakol 215,180 71,009 33% 1995 Bad year Low food stocks. Gu & Deyr failed. Bay 655,686 52,455 8% Ethiopian troops Livestock production was Gedo 385,380 211,959 55% invade Gedo poor. Hiran 280,590 86,983 31% 1996 Good year L. Juba 329,240 59,263 18% IDP’s from Good crop & livestock L. Shabelle 891,000 80,190 9% Bay/Bakol in Luuq. production. SNF captured. M. Juba 248,620 32,320 13% M. Shabelle 409,630 69,637 17% 1997 Poor Year Total 3,415,326 663,816 El-Niño floods. Excessive rains Malaria outbreak. - Livestock prod. Source: POPULATION WHO, 2002 Good pasture & fodder. Camel high mortality. 1998 Normal year Imposition of Pasture and water livestock ban by availability was normal Description of LZ Saudi government due to the El-Niño event • This is part of the largest LZ in southern Somalia it is found in all the regions of the south. It covers almost all the 1999 Bad year land that is not suitable for crop production. High migration , Poor rains, low livestock • The predominant species is camels, goats and to a lesser extent sheep. Displacement and less price, high cereal price • In most parts of the LZ as in Bakol, Bay, Hiran, Middle Shabelle, most goats are sold to exporters who sell it in the food aid gulf countries. Most of the camels from this LZ are sold in Mogadishu. 2000 Normal year • Because they are not permanently settled these pastoralists have the ability to travel long distances for water and security condition Good livestock condition, pasture for their livestock. Consequently, in a normal year, the middle, the better off and even upper poor wealth improved, more food and good market groups are considered less vulnerable to food insecurity, despite the hardships that characterises their way of life. aid • Average livestock holdings are higher than for agro-pastoral & riverine. However, due to consecutive droughts and 2001 Poor year civil strife, which resulted in big livestock losses, holdings are much lower than normally expected for this LZ. • The poorer of the households are more vulnerable because of their inability to get enough from their herds to support 2002 Very bad year them. Also because movement for the family of 7-8 people with only 3-5 camels is not a sustaining process, so they Failed Gu and Deyr rains, have to split their families with some being left to other sources of livelihood or at the mercy of community support. out migration of livestock • This LZ interacts well with the agro-pastoral (camel, cattle, sorghum), which neighbours it from all the sides, as they share water points and pastures especially in the rainy seasons. However, more interaction is with the urban LZ for which the LZ depends on for employment, market and exchange. Baseline Year Definition The baseline year chosen for this LZ was from April 2000 to March 2001. Wealth Breakdown Wealth is determined by livestock ownership. Following a bad year – the proportion of the wealth groups may alter due Annual rainfall in south Gedo lower to changes in the herd size: Shabelle ranges from 300 to 400 mm, while that in Middle/Lower Juba ranges from 400 to 600 mm and that of Bakol, Hiran and Bay varies Very Poor Poor Middle Better-off 0-5% 15-30% 40-50 % 25-35% between 200 and 300 mm.

Terms of trade are: -In Gedo, Hiran and Bakol: 1l camel milk = 1 kg sorghum

After Harvest 1 local quality goat = 1 50kg sack of

sorghum. Wealth Group Characteristic Very Poor Poor Middle Better off In the rainy seasons, animals stay closer to home, while in dry seasons HH size 4-6 HH size 5-7 HH size HH size the herd is split, with some lactating 5-15 camels 20-30 camels 40-60 camels 70-100 camels animals staying with the family and 2-4 cattle 5-10 cattle 15-25 cattle 30-40 cattle the rest sent off with the herder. 15-25 shoats 30-50 shoats 60-90 shoats 100-250 shoats 0-1 donkey 1-2 donkey 2+ donkey

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

Milk & dairy - 300% 300% Non-staple cattle 250% 250% 9% purchase Milk & dairy 200% 200% 5% camel & 150% 15 0 %

shoats 100% 10 0 % 29% 50% 50% 0% 0% Staple Meat B A SELIN E A C C ESS M A XIM UM A C C ESS BASELINE INCOM E M AXIM ISING FOOD purchase 1% M ilk &dairy sales- camels & shoats M ilk &dairy sales -cattle ACCESS gifts 52% Livesock sales Gums and resins 4% Staple purchase Non-staple purchase Tax self employment Ho useho ld items Input Surplus income Social services

¾ Most food needs of the poor pastoralists ¾ The majority of household income comes from the sale of livestock ¾ In the baseline, households in this group have a are obtained by purchasing cereals. 14 products — x l per month of milk and 25 kg per year of ghee would relatively large amount of ‘surplus income’ —used for Bags (each 50 kg) of cereal are bought be sold in a typical baseline year. Households could almost double re-stocking or for buying less essential items. This is per year. this by switching consumption to sales; however this usually happens all converted to staple purchase in a bad year. ¾ Sugar purchase increases during the dry in poor years when the overall production is decreased. ¾ A significant amount of expenditure is made on season when milk production is low. ¾ Livestock sales contribute a small amount to income in baseline years household items (clothing, soap, salt, tea and coffee). Approximately 55 kg of sugar is bought but may be expanded significantly if the household is seeking This is reduced in times of difficulty. per year. additional funds. This is applied during times of stress (particularly ¾ Social services comprise expenditure on health, ¾ Almost 17 l per day of milk is produced during drought) when milk production is poor, although reduced schooling, clan taxes and loan repayments. Since the from all species during the wet season animal quality and unfavourable prices can substantially erode this. former two are insufficient, they should not but often and 7 l per day during the dry season. Typically, a household sells 2-3 shoats a year; this can be pushed to are reduced. The latter two can be waived for Approximately xx of this is consumed. 6-8 shoats, 1 head of cattle and 1 camel per year. households from this wealth group during hard times. ¾ Households from this wealth group also ¾ Poor households usually herd animals belonging to wealthier families ¾ A significant expenditure is made on non-staple food, receive gifts from relatives. to distant markets, receiving payment in the form of a sheep or goat mostly sugar and edible oils, which are partially from the herd being sold. This is converted into cash. reduced in times of difficulty (at the expense non- ¾ Gums and resins are collected in the bush towards south Gedo; these energy nutritional requirements). are not as abundant as in other pastoral areas. Of the inputs, veterinary drugs are essential, while money ¾ The poor receive support through zakaa (Islamic tax) and kaalmo used for camel salt is switched to food. (kinship support). They may also be given cash loans during stress. ¾ Since the civil war, a small market for hides and skins has developed, although income from this is still minimal. This is one area for development of income improvement. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

250% 250% Non-staple Milk & dairy - 200% 200% Staple purchase cattle purchase 8% 8% 150 % 150% 26% 100% 100%

50% 50% Milk & dairy - 0% Camel & 0% Meat BASELINE ACCESS MAXIMUM ACCESS shoats BASELINE INCOM E M AXIM ISING FOOD ACCESS 8% M ilk &dairy sales- camels & shoats M ilk &dairy sales -cattle 50% Staple purchase Non staple purchase Social services Livestock sales Gums and resins Tax Input Surplus income Household items

¾ Higher milk and meat production means that this group ¾ This group depend entirely on their animals for their ¾ This group are able to put considerably more money does not need to purchase as much food as the poor. income; either through direct sales or through sales of into the purchase of staple food from their income than Furthermore, a slightly higher percentage of food needs milk and milk products. However, their comparatively the ‘poor’ group, but their wealthier status and the cost comes from purchased items that are not staples, this is large herd sizes means that they can significantly of maintaining their larger herds means that the due to the higher purchasing power enjoyed by the increase their income by switching milk from percentage of expenditure available for use on staple group. consumption to sales and by selling more animals. food is less than that of the ‘poor’.

SEASONAL CALENDAR RISK FACTORS In the rainy season, animals stay within north Gedo rangelands, while in dry seasons herds move towards the Dawa and • Prolonged and/or severe Juba Rivers drought with depleted Access to wild meat, fruits and birds pasture APRIL Milk and ghee peak season • Insecurity Decrease in milk/water supply Kable, other wild vegetables • Market Access JILAAL GU Livestock feeding on farm stalks available or from fodder purchases Main dry Main rainy season season Increase in cereal prices Cereal to livestock terms (long, hot of trade down and dry) JANUARY JULY COPING STRATEGIES DEYR HAGAY Moderate milk/ghee supply Livestock may feed on farm Short rains Cool dry stalks and from fodder Season • Sale of livestock, starting with smaller species. Honey less available purchases Sale of some cattle may also be done when Increase in cereal prices Decrease in cereal prices drought conditions are forecast or when the market (in Kenya) is good. Increased milk, decreased Collection of some wild fruits and • Seek more employment, especially herding others’ OCTOBER ghee consumption vegetables livestock to distant markets. Honey • More collection of bush products (for sale)

• Increased reliance on relatives and community support

1.1. Baseline Profile — Addun Pastoral: Sheep, Goats and Camels

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone and Population Figures Event Production 1991 Very poor year Severe conflict and Below normal Gu looting. Very poor rains; poor Deyr terms of trade rains. LAS CAANOOD # 1992 Below normal # GAROOWE Heavy and wide- year spread clan conflict. Normal Gu and More Information Available: Influx of IDP’s and Deyr rains. Lack of space restricts this profile returnees. to just some of the details on this Disrupted trade baseline. FSAU has further information available on request; 1993 Normal year contact [email protected] . Migration to Nugal Normal Gu and GALKACYO # in Deyr. Human poor Deyr rains. and livestock Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of diseases Regional Pop 1994 Normal year Mudug 308500 106650 34-35% No abnormal events Normal Gu and Deyr rains. Nugal 164700 7875 4-5% # DHUSA-MAREEB 1995 Poor year Galgadud 299335 57800 19% Influx of IDP’s and Poor Gu and below Total 772535 172325 returnees. Outbreak normal Deyr rains. Source: POPULATION, WHO 2001 of camel disease 1996 Very poor year Exceptional Below normal Gu migration towards and very poor Deyr. southern grazing areas ‘Gololaad’ 1997 Good year Pastoral inter-clan Normal Gu and conflict. El Nino very good Deyr Description of LZ related rains. exceptionally heavy • The Addun Pastoral LZ comprises mixed herds of shoats (60% goats, 40% sheep), camel and few cattle. The area is Deyr rains known as ‘Guri Ari’ (home for shoats). 1998 Poor year • A defining feature of this LZ, and a key factor determining its vulnerability, is its inaccessibility and isolation from Livestock ban – Below normal Gu major markets and roads, which imply poor terms of trade for herders; lower livestock prices, higher food prices. March. Benefits of and poor Deyr. • This is a poorer pastoral LZ most others, due in particular to its lack of milk marketing (inaccessibility). El Nino into 1998. Good 1st half 1999, nd • Addun pastoralists are also characterised by low mobility – they tend to move within the Addun ecological zone High reproduction poor 2 half. only. This is in part due to the low livestock resistance to ectoparasites (e.g. ticks), as ticks are few in the area, low of shoats in Gu. levels of predators and relatively low prices and reasonable availability of water. 1999 Very poor year Livestock ban lifted Poor Gu and Deyr • The Addun landscape is flat and sandy with low lying vegetation and few trees. Vegetative variety is limited from March. 2nd rains – 2nd year of reducing livestock productivity but the vegetation found there has a high resistance to drought. year of drought. drought. Low • Dry season water is obtained mainly from boreholes. prices and high • Increasing and expanding settlements and berkads, particularly over the past 20 years, are increasing environmental rejection rate degradation and reducing livestock productivity. 2000 Normal Year • There has been chronic insecurity, especially since 1990, due to the border with southern clans – restricting grazing Recovering from Late normal Gu. access. drought. Low livestock • This LZ has been very hard hit by the 1998 and 1999 droughts. reproduction. • The expanding fishing industry over the last 10 years offers some alternative income opportunities. • Credit is a vital part of the local economy (due in large part to the homogenous clan located in the area), and allows livestock sales to be concentrated in the peak Hajj season when prices are highest. Wealth Breakdown Normal Year Definition: Wealth is measured by herd size. In a normal year terms of trade are: 2 local quality goats = 1 sack rice 1.5 export quality goats = 1 sack rice 1 export quality goat in Hajj = 1 sack rice Poor Middle Better off Normally, livestock only migrate 25-30% 45-55% 20-25% within the Addun ecological zone

Wealth Group Characteristic Milk production (per animal): Poor Middle Better off 2 l camel milk in wet season (5 m) HH size 5-6 HH size 6-8 HH size 8-10 1 l camel milk in dry season (7 m) 40-60 shoats 80-120 shoats 150-200 shoats 2-5 camels 10-15 camels 25-30 camels Water costs (from boreholes): 1-2 berkads 1 full watering for 1 pack camel (100 l) + 80 l = 2,000 Sshs; Annual income: $ 300-350 Annual income: $ 400-450 100 goats = 3,000 Sshs

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $300-350 Livestock products Water Self- Livestock sales Other needs 15-20% Livestock & 5-10% employment 35-45% 0-10% human drugs 20-25% 5-10% Gifts 10-20% Gifts & Purchase remittances 70-75% 10-20% Food 85-90% Employment 20-25%

¾ The majority of food needs are purchased – ¾ The largest source of income is from livestock ¾ The vast majority of income is spend on food mainly rice, sugar and oil sales, particularly small ruminants ¾ Much smaller amounts are spent on human and ¾ Gifts are an important source of food & income – ¾ Gifts are in different forms – clothes, money. livestock drugs, water and other commodities these may be received in the form of cereal, sugar ¾ Labour employment includes fishing & and/or lactating animals construction/masonry ¾ Milk from own livestock comprise the remainder ¾ Self-employment income includes shoe-making, of food consumption blacksmithing & tea-shops MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $400-450

Milk and meat Water production Labour Remits 5-10% Other needs 25-35%% 0-10% 0-10% Livestock & 5-10% human drugs 5-10% Purchase 65-75% Food Livestock Sales 85-90% 85-90%

¾ Approximately 30% of food comes from own ¾ The vast majority of income is from the sale of ¾ The majority of income is spent on food milk (camel & goats) & meat production live animals – approximately 15-20 shoats and 1 ¾ Livestock and human drugs and water comprise ¾ The majority of food is purchased (70%) – rice (7 camel per year the other major expenses x 50 kg bags), flour (5 bags), sugar (6 sacks), oil ¾ Remittances from abroad are only received by (30 l) and beans (2 sacks) about 30% of households ¾ Contributions from urban-based kin are important ¾ Access to credit is important – allowing animals to be sold when prices are high

SEASONAL CALENDAR More visits from urban relatives High ectoparasite & Marrying time respiratory tract infections RISK Highest labour opportunities APRIL Time of community re-distribution & re- stocking FACTORS Highest livestock mortality Insecurity Inaccessibility Low livestock migrationLow labour intensity period Environmental Water scarcity – possible degradation Highest milk (camel) & meat water trucking High remittanceJILAAL season GU production Main dry Main rainy Highest livestock season (long, season High endoparasite infestation movement hot & dry) Lower cereal & Highest temperature sugar consumption COPING STRATEGIES extremes JULY JANUARY DEYR HAGAY Poor terms of trade as • Strong traditional community support – remittances, More visits from Short rains Cool dry, windy sea trade ceases credit & re-distribution urban relatives season High ectoparasite & respiratory • Job opportunities exist in main towns and fishing area tract infections • Water trucking Peak goat milk Few labour opportunities • Good radio communications production & start of ghee production Increased sugar & cereal purchase • Drought resistant vegetation • Species & family dividing Re-start of sea trade Decreased milk production • Camel slaughtering – conversion in to high value fat & OCTOBER meat products

1.1. Baseline Profile — Bay-Bakol-Bardera Agro-Pastoral: High Potential Sorghum, Cattle, Camels

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line for Bay Region Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1991 Bad year #Y BELET-WEYNE Fighting between No rains, no SDM and SPM. harvest, no pasture. XUDUR Looting. Madhaytu #Y # TIE# GLO 1992 Very bad (worst) Conflict between year GARBAHAREY #Y BAYDHABA SNF and USC. No rains; no stocks; #Y Stocks depleted discrimination; QANSAX DHEERE BURHAKABA # JOWHAR # #Y Aid; famine started. slaughtering. BAAR-DHEERE 1993 Excellent year # More Information Available: UNOSOM starts. Good rains; good %[ MOGADISHU Lack of space restricts this profile to just some of the details on this Sorghum price harvest; livestock #Y baseline. FSAU has further drops dramatically. prices high. MERKA BUAALE information available on request; 1994 Normal year #Y contact [email protected] . Quelea-quelea birds Gu season rains reduced sorghum good; Deyr rains Region Total Pop. in Total pop. per LZ in LZ pop. as % of yield by 50%. failed. each region each region Regional pop. 1995 Normal year Bakol 190,050 13,005 7% UNOSOM finished. Good rains; good Conflict between crop; good #Y Bay 697,100 323,829 46% KIS MAY O SNA and RRA. livestock prices. Gedo 355,000 27,000 8% Aideed captured. Total 1,242,150 363,834 1996 Normal year Source: POPULATION; WHO, 2001 Insecurity and clan Eastern part of Bur conflict in Bur Hakaba suffers but Hakaba. west has normal production. 1997 Poor year General Description of LZ RRA/SNA fighting. Poor Gu; floods in • The LZ is defined by an area of better soils and higher rainfall that provides the ‘high potential’ cereal production. Much banditry. Deyr. Grain stocks Except for Bardera, the higher rainfall is largely due to higher altitude. flooded/destroyed. • By far the greater proportion of this LZ (±89%) is located in Bay region around Baidoa, Bur Hakaba and Qansah Dere Good livestock towns. The LZ is also found in Bakol region between Wajid and Rabdure (Madhaytu and Mooragaabey) as well as conditions. south of Tieglo. A strip east of Bardera in Gedo region is also covered by this LZ. 1998 Below normal SNA still in control Poor Gu rains, near • Households in this LZ are more dependent on crops than on livestock. of Bay region normal Deyr. • Farming is wholly rain-fed and sorghum is the main cereal. Prior to the civil war, this LZ was the main source of Worse situation in sorghum for the country. Other crops grown are groundnuts, cowpeas, mung beans and maize. Cowpeas or mung beans Bur Hakaba. are usually inter-cropped with the cereals. 1999 Below normal • Crop yield tends to be higher in Qansah Dere and Dinsor due to better soil fertility and planting methods. Bur Hakaba RRA recapture Bay Gu below normal, has lower yields due to soil erosion and a rockier environment. The average yield per ha of sorghum is 500-600 kg in a in June. Deyr near normal good year, 350 kg in an average year and 100 kg in a bad year. The average yield per ha of cowpea is 144 kg in a good 2000 Good year year, 72 kg in an average year and 36 kg in a bad year. National Good Gu rains in reconciliation • When the Gu season has been satisfactory, Deyr season sorghum is ratooned. Surplus crops are either stored unthreshed crop production process in Djibouti. in most of Bay. underground in sealed anaerobic pits, called bakars or are sold, as are sorghum and maize stalks for fodder. • The main livestock reared are cattle. Cattle have become more popular than camel ownership as they can stay closer to 2001 Bad year the compound (better access to milk and market), are more in demand for export and can be easily transported. Selling Relative peace Very poor Gu livestock is unusual except during crop failure. and stability. season but • Livestock move away in search of grazing and water during the Jilaal, Gu and Deyr seasons and return in the Hagay recovery in the season to graze on stalks. Livestock from Bur Hakaba are seasonally moved towards lower Shabelle River. Deyr. • Households from this LZ have links with the Baidoa Urban and Southern Agro-pastoral LZ’s for grazing, employment and markets. Baseline Year Definition: Wealth Breakdown The baseline year chosen for this LZ Wealth is measured by the amount of land cultivated in the household, which in turn is determined by ownership and was from July 2000 to June 2000 labour, i.e. it depends on household resources (of which assets and livestock are important) which are used to hire labour. (2000 cropping year).

Rainfall in a ‘normal’ year ranges from 500-600 mm/year; in 2000 it was 600 mm

Crop yields: 450-800 kg/ha Very Poor 5-20% Poor 35-45% M iddle 30-40% Better off 5-20% Milk yields: 3 ℓ per cow per day for 6 months Wealth Group Definitions In a baseline year, the poor and middle households will avoid selling Very Poor Poor Middle Better off livestock HH size: 6 people HH size: 6 people HH size: 8 people HH size: 9 people

Land cultivated: 1-3 ha Land cultivated: 2-3 Ha Land cultivated: 3 –5 ha Land cultivated: 4-6 ha Prices: (this is borrowed or (owned, rented or (owned) (owned) Crop, selling: 50,000/- per quintal rented and is lower borrowed land) Livestock and assets: Livestock and assets: Staple, buying: 1160/- per kg potential) Livestock: 0-3 camels Camels 5-10 Milk: 1,000/- per ℓ Livestock: 1-3 cattle 3-5 cattle Cattle 8-15 Labour: (avg.) 5,800/- per person-day 0-2 cattle 2-5 shoats 5-10 shoats Shoats 10-15 Exchange rate: (avg.) $1 = 13, 250/ 0-2 shoats 5 chickens 1 donkey + cart 1 Donkey + cart

POOR Income & Expandability (Sshs. 1.4 m or $110 Sources of Food Expenditure & Maximising Food Access for the year) Cereal Non- 14 0 % 14 0 % harvest staple 12 0 % 12 0 % 60-70% Purchase 10 0 % 10 0 % 10 - 2 0 % 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% Non-cereal 20% 20% Staple harvest Wild 0% Purchase Animal 5-10% 0% foods BASELINE MAXIMISING FOOD 10 - 2 0 % Product s BASELINE ACCESS MAXIMUM ACCESS 0-2% EX PENDITURE ACCES 0-5% Staple crop sales Non-cereal crop sales St aple p urchase No n-st ap le f o o d Animal product sales Self emp loyment Social services Ho useho ld it ems Agric labour Livestock sales Additional flexibility ¾ The main source of food is own-produced cereals, of ¾ The main source of income for this group is from ¾ In good or normal years, the bulk of family expenditure which about ¾ are consumed, the rest being sold or kept agricultural employment, which is seasonal and goes into non-staple foods (milk, sugar, edible oils, for seeds. dependent on climatic & economic conditions. beans, etc.) and into household items such as soap, ¾ The poor do not grow enough to store in bakars, Households will try to increase this during difficult clothing, utensils, etc. Expenditure on these items is because they have small pieces of land and spend much times. reduced during times of stress. of the agricultural season working on other people’s ¾ Other sources of income are from milk and animal ¾ A small amount goes into basic staple purchases; this is fields in order to earn money. production, self-employment/collection activities and considerably expanded in bad years. ¾ Non-staple food grown comprises mostly cowpeas, Livestock sales. Attempts are made to maximise all of ¾ Expenditure on social services is low, although these although vegetables both wild & cultivated are eaten. these sources during times of stress. Self-employment are essential and will probably need to be maintained ¾ They obtain some milk for part of the year, half of includes petty trade, sale of bush products (charcoal, (increased?) in bad years which is sold during this period. firewood, poles, etc.), fodder and water. ¾ Households in the poor category have very little ¾ A substantial cereal component is purchased, during late ¾ In a baseline situation (good or normal production), ‘flexible’ (or disposable) money available from their Jilaal and early Gu, when home stocks run out and cereals are sold to settle debts or buy HH items. In bad income (this is used for re-stocking animals or for prices are high. years, all cereal/crop production is eaten to maximise making slightly more ‘luxurious’ purchases. ¾ Additionally, sugar, oil & skimmed milk are purchased. food access. MIDDLE Income & Expandability (Sshs. 4.2 m or Sources of Food Expenditure & Maximising Food Access $310 for the year)

Cereal 16 0 % 16 0 % harvest 14 0 % 14 0 % 65-80% 12 0 % 12 0 % 10 0 % 10 0 % 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% Non-staple 20% 0% purchase Non-cereal 0% B A SELINE M AXIM ISING FOOD 10 - 2 0 % harvest B A SELINE A CCESS M A XIM UM A CCESS 5-10% EX PENDITURE ACCES Animal Cereal crop sales Non-cereal cro p sales St ap le purchase Non-st aple f oo d Animal products Livestock sales Social Services Inputs Wild food Products St ocks Household it ems A ddit ional f lexibilit y 0-2% 1- 10 % ¾ Own production of grain provides by far the majority of ¾ Income for this group is quite evenly split and ¾ The middle group have high additional flexibility, households in the middle group’s food. They are able to diversified. which they mainly use for restocking goats and bulls. sell just under half of their production and put away ¾ In a poor year they will decrease their crops sales ¾ They employ agricultural labourers to prepare their about 10% for seeds. They eat about ⅓ of their cowpea somewhat, while increasing that of milk and livestock. land, plant, weeding, bird scaring, harvesting and production as well. ¾ This group is also able to carry stocks over from year threshing; this contributes to ‘inputs’. ¾ About ⅓ of their milk production is consumed fresh, the to year. Last year’s stocks can thus be sold if the ¾ This group also spends more on health and education as rest being converted into ghee and sold. situation requires it. well as giving other poor relatives cereal. ¾ A proportion of food comes from purchasing sugar, ¾ Households will try to avoid selling livestock. ¾ All of these can be reduced in hard times, enabling a milk, oil & meat. large switch to grain purchase. ¾ Wild foods are collected for variety and contribute very little.

SEASONAL CALENDAR RISK FACTORS Farm land preparation, ploughing Sorghum, maize, cowpea, peanut planting Prolonged drought Access to wild meat, fruits,birds APRIL Milk & ghee production peak season Consecutive crop failure Decrease in milk/water supply Kable, other wild vegetables available Market access Increase in cereal prices L/stock feeding on farm Agric. labour available (planting stalks and fodder sales & weeding) JILAAL GU Cereal/livestock prices Bird scaring decrease Main dry Main rainy COPING STRATEGIES season (long, season Green maize/beans Sorghum harvest hot and dry) consumption. JANUARY JULY Sale of livestock; sale of larger stock is only common in hard times. Sorghum, cowpea, peanut Moderate milk /ghee Sale of stored grain. supply harvest DEYR HAGAY More employment and self-employment Honey less available Building/renovating seeking. At times stronger family Short rains Cool Dry underground storage members may travel for these. Increase in cereal prices season Beans & green maize L/stock feeding on farm stalks More collection of bush products for food harvest and fodder sales and income – wild foods, building sticks Collection/sale of wild Decrease in cereal prices and poles, hunting, etc Increased community support e.g. kinan fruits/vegetable Increased milk, reduced ghee produced Sorghum ratooning, planting and weeding (visiting relatives who have, to seek help) OCTOBER Increase in honey production is common.

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Event Production Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures 1991 Poor year Government Poor rains, low collapse. Start of livestock DHUSA-MAREEB insecurity. production # 1992 Bad year Insecurity and Very poor rains. # BELET WEYNE severe drought, Poor livestock # XUDUR # ICRC help. New production and More Information Available: ports –Cige, death GARBAHAREY Lack of space restricts this profile # X/Deere, # to just some of the details on this JOWHAR 1993 Near-normal year BAYDHABA # baseline. FSAU has further Average rains, information available on request; Relative peace in livestock improves; MOGADISHU contact [email protected] . the area. Poor year # 1994 MERKA BUAALE Relative peace Long dry periods in # prevails, dry some parts. Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop conditions exist. Galgadud 371,000 27166 7% 1995 Normal Year M. Shabelle 346,870 37040 11% Post-drought Good livestock # KISMAYO 263340 recovery. production; cowpea Mudug 20085 8% crop average. 981,210 Total 84291 1996 Normal year Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 Improvement and Good livestock continued recovery production; average cowpea crop. 1997 Poor year Start of El Nino Good pasture but Description of LZ rains, lots of insects only average and crop diseases. livestock • The cowpea belt covers six districts in three regions of central Somalia - Hobyo and Harardeere in Mudug; Ceel Bur production; poor /Galhareeri and Ceel Der in Galgadud; and Adan Yabal and Cadale/Warsheikh in Middle Shabelle region. crops. • The LZ is mainly livestock-dependent and is classified among the Agro-pastoral (livestock) food economy groups. 1998 Poor year • Livestock reared are mainly camels and goats with cattle and sheep being less dominant. Livestock export Good pasture due to • Modal farm sizes range between 3 and 4 Ha. Shifting cultivation is practiced with farms abandoned after 3 years and ban. Insects and El Nino effects, only average live- only returned to after 30-35 years. Therefore, large tracts of land are constantly cleared and fencing is very thick diseases persist. stock production; causing serious loss of vegetation. Farm families are estimated to have increased 100 % - 120 % since 1991 due to poor cowpea crop. influx of people originally from other regions of Somalia as a result of the civil war. 1999 Normal year • Cowpea is the major crop grown in both Gu and Deyr seasons. Sorghum cultivation is rare but happens mainly in the Lifting of livestock Low Gu and good Deyr season because it is more resistant to water stress. The two crops are often intercropped with watermelon. export ban. Deyr rains; good • Main income source is livestock, especially goat. Main food sources are livestock products, purchase and cowpea. livestock and crop. • Seasonal livestock movement is practised and the main determinants are pasture, water and livestock pests. 2000 Normal year Re-imposition of Good Gu rains.

• The poor agro-pastoralists are most vulnerable since their herd sizes are small and the cowpea crop is unreliable. livestock ban – • Water is mainly from private berkads and boreholes. Boreholes are rare and the Jilaal season is a time of chronic September. water scarcity in the inland areas and livestock trek long distances for water. Body condition reduces and prices plummet. • The cowpea belt is surrounded by sheep pastoralists on the coastal side and camel and shoat pastoralists to the west. There is little interaction with the sheep pastoralists but more with the camel and shoat pastoralists. • The seasonality of sea trade and livestock demand from Saudi Arabia is important. Cattle and camel are exported to Yemen. Northern areas are more economically integrated with Bosasso, southern areas with Mogadishu.

Normal Year Definition: Wealth Breakdown Wealth is measured by herd size. 1996 is considered the most recent ‘normal’ year and defines the baseline.

In a baseline year, terms of trade are: Poor Middle Better off 20-30% 50-60% 15-25% At Hagay (harvest time), 1 export quality shoat = 2 sacks sorghum/ Wealth Group Characteristic maize and 1 sack cowpea Poor Middle Better off HH size 7-8 HH size 7-8 HH size 7-8 1 l milk = 1 kg sorghum/maize 20-40 shoats 50-70 shoats 80-150 shoats 1-5 camels 5-15 camels 20-40 camels In Jilaal, 1 shoat = 1 sack sorghum/ 0-3 cattle 3-5 cattle 5-10 cattle maize 1-2 hectares of land 3-4 hectares of land 1.5-2.5 hectares of land In Gu, livestock move far inland, in Income: $293 per year Income: $575 per year Income: $1050 per year Hagay, livestock move to coastal areas

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $293

Shoes & Wild foods and L/stock products Other Sources Livestock & livestock products clothes gifts 10-20% 10-20% Community 5-15% 45-55% 10-20% support 5-15% Other needs 5-10%

Purchase Crop products Shoat 35-45% 25-35% Replacement Food Self employment 25-30% 5-10% 60-65%

¾ Over one third of the annual food consumption is ¾ The main source of income derives from ¾ About two-thirds of the annual income is spent met through purchase comprising mostly of livestock and livestock products & self- on foodstuffs and the balance spent on non-food cereals (rice, cowpea, sugar.) Another third is employment. Self employment activities are items such as clothes, kerosene, medicine, soap obtained from crop products; this is mainly mainly charcoal making and collection of and Koranic schooling. because the poor households neither give zakaa construction poles and sticks ¾ The poor have small goat flocks, so they try hard nor gifts of crop products. ¾ Community support is in the form of zakaa, gifts to purchase about 3 shoats annually as ¾ Livestock products include milk mainly from and credit. Remittance is generally unavailable replacements towards the 10 or so that are sold. camel and goats. Wild foods such as gocoso, to the poor WG. ¾ Veterinary drugs are hardly purchased because xabag, meat, and food gifts constitute another ¾ Other sources of income include crop sales and of the very small cattle and camel numbers. 15% of food consumption. employment. Main employment is farm work ¾ Other needs are mainly, non-food essentials, and payment is usually in kind (cereal). Koranic school and human medicine. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $575

Livestock & Purchase Livestock l/stock products Other needs Food products 30-40% Other 15-25% 70-80% 15-20% 35-45% 35-45% Self- Debt repayment employment 5-10 0-10% Shoes & Crop products clothes 20-30% 10-20% Shoat replacement 15-25%

¾ The most important food source is livestock ¾ Main income from the sale of their livestock ¾ 35-45% of income is spent on food items mainly products especially milk, with ghee and meat (mainly shoats) & sale of animal products cereal, sugar, & oil. playing relatively smaller roles. Of almost equal especially camel milk. Goats’ milk is more ¾ Middle households take some credit, mainly in importance is food purchases and crop products important for home consumption. kind during land preparation and weeding. (cowpea, melons, some sorghum) ¾ Self employment includes, charcoal burning, Younger shoats (usually fewer than those sold) ¾ 4130 litres of milk is produced per year mainly construction poles and sticks. are bought to replace old ones at a lower price from camels. Skimmed milk is of little ¾ Other income sources include, credits. and the margin is used to buy household needs. significance because cattle ownership is small. ¾ Other needs category mainly includes Koran ¾ No significant wild food usage school, non-food essential, vet and human medicines, detergents, and gifts.

Collection of construction SEASONAL CALENDAR materials, rehabilitation of Herds/families may divide to spread risk APRIL RISK FACTORS Planting and weeding Camels travel far a field • Livestock ban • Access to water & pasture Stock piling of livestock for export Peak season for milk/ghee production – increase in income from sale • Crop failure • Livestock disease High cereal and sugar JILAAL GU Increase livestock & meat • Inter-clan conflict purchase Long dry Heavy & prices – low sales, animals Wild fruits collection season in most fattened plateau important rain Livestock migration season towards water points JULY COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY Charcoal making DEYR HAGAY Decrease in milk/ghee Collection of Light rains Cool, windy, production - More people turn to selling more milk & construction showers charcoal. materials - More remittances received especially by the High cereal & sugar purchase middle and better off groups Increase in Milk/Ghee - More wild fruits being consumed & sold Decrease in livestock - Searching for limestone and graphite Increase in Livestock and meat prices – high supply - Sale of water - Looking for work in fishing and salt collecting OCTOBER areas

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line

Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production

Ra b Dh u 1991 Poor year # Heavy clan fighting – Harvest low; Livestock # More Information Available: DOL OW large numbers of looting & killing Lack of space restricts this profile # IDP’s. BELET XA WO to just some of the details on this LUUQ WAJI# # baseline. FSAU has further 1992 Bad year information available on request; Al-Itihad forces No rain, low milk production GARBAHAREY contact [email protected] . present in region. & poor pasture #Y BERDA Drought & famine # 1993 Normal/Good year QANSAX DHEE # UNOSOM starts; Good harvest & livestock in # CE EL WAQ Food aid available good condition improved security DI NS OR # District District. Pop Dis. LZ total LZ as % of BAAR-DHEERE# Dis. Pop 1994 Normal year Dolo 45,000 31,500 70% WFP starts FFW Medium rains, livestock Belet Hawa 65,000 45,500 70% programmes prices normal pastures SAKO W 2 # Luuq 106,730 58,700 55% 1995 Bad year Garbahare 35,000 26,250 75% Low food stocks. Gu & Deyr failed. Livestock Ethiopian troops production poor. Total 385,000 212,250 55 % invaded. 1 Source: WHO NIDS, September 2001 2 Source: CARE registration, January 2002 1996 Good year IDP’s from Good crop & livestock Bay/Bakol in Luuq. production. SNF captured. General Description of the LZ 1997 Poor Year • This LZ lies in Northern Gedo in the districts of Luuq, Dolo, Belet Hawa and parts of Garbahare. It covers almost all El-Nino floods. Excessive rains; Good the land in those districts that are not suitable for crop production, intersecting with areas of the Southern Agro-pastoral Malaria outbreak. livestock production; camel LZ and Southern Inland LZ. high mortality. • The predominant animal species kept are shoats, followed by cattle, camels and donkeys. 1998 Normal year • Milk and dairy production forms the backbone of daily household survival; milk provides an important nutritional Camel abortion year Normal Gu, poor Deyr. component for children and when made into ghee, combines a high energy value with long storage. Milk calories are and livestock ban Livestock production good. typically worth 5 times the value of cereal calories, so milk is an important commodity for exchange. UNOPS assistance • Goats and cattle are sold in Mandera and then traded in the Kenya livestock market. Cattle may also be herded south to 1999 Poor year enter Kenya through the Garissa Market. Camels from this LZ are sold in Luuq and trekked to Mogadishu. General insecurity in Gu poor, Deyr poor. • As they are not permanently settled, these pastoralists have the ability to move to other areas, seeking water and pasture the region Livestock production low, so for their livestock. Consequently, when conditions are normal, most households are considered less vulnerable to food movement to Bay, Bakol, Ethiopia and Kenya insecurity, despite the hardships that characterise their way of life. Average livestock holdings are higher than for agro-pastoral & riverine zones. However, due to big livestock losses 2000 Poor year • SNF split into two Below normal rainfall and resulting from consecutive droughts, environmental degradation and civil strife, average holdings are much lower now factions production for Gu and Deyr than what they were before. 2001 Very bad year • This LZ interacts well with the Southern Agro-pastoral (camel, cattle, sorghum) zone, which neighbours it on the Drought and intra Failed Gu and Deyr rains, eastern side, as they share water points and pastures, especially in the rainy seasons. However, households interact clan fighting out migration of livestock more with the urban LZ, for which members depend on for markets, exchanging and employment. • In bad years, households may send their livestock far off their places of origin, travelling long distances to Middle/lower Juba, Ethiopia or Kenya in search of pasture and water. When this happens, households are separated from their animals and lose access to them and their products for survival. Baseline Year Definition: The baseline year chosen for this LZ was from April 1998 to March 1999

Wealth Breakdown Rainfall in N. Gedo ranges from 300 mm Wealth is measured entirely by the number of animals kept by the household. to 500 mm in this area. Milk yields: • Goats: 400 ml / day (wet season) and 200 ml / day (dry season); • Cattle: 3 l / day (wet season) and 1½ l / day (dry season); • Camels: 5 l / day (wet season) and 3 Very Poor 0-10% Poor 25-35% Middle 40-50% Better Off 10-20% l / day (dry season) • Prices: Wealth Group Definitions Goats’ milk: 1,500/- per l Camels milk: 1,000/- per l Very Poor Poor Middle Better off Ghee: 9,000/- per kg Goat, local (secundo): 80,000/ Hh size: 4-6 people HH size: 5-7 people HH size: 7-8 people HH size: 7-12 Goat, export (primo): 160,000/ Livestock: Livestock: Livestock: Livestock: Cattle, local (secundo): 300,000/- 30-40 shoats 60-80 shoats 100-150 shoats 150-200 shoats Camel, local (secundo): 500,000/ 3-5 cattle 10-15 cattle 20-25 cattle 30-40 cattle Staple price (avg.): 50,000/- per 50 kg 3-5 camels 5-10 camel 15-20 camel 20-30 camel bag 1-2 donkeys 2-3 donkey 3-5 donkey 5-10 donkey Exchange rate: US$ 1.00 = 7,550/

POOR Sources of Food Income & Expandability (Sshs. 4 m or $450 for the whole Expenditure & Maximising Food year) Access

120% 120% Expenditure Patterns Meat Hunting/w ild Milk & diary - Non-staple 1% foods shoats & 100% 100% purchase 3% camels 80% 80% 12% 28% 60% 60%

40% 40% 20% 20% Milk & diary - 0% Staple 0% cattle BA SELINE A CCESS MA XIMUM A CCESS purchase BA SELINE INCOME MA XIMISING FOOD A CCESS 8% live s to ck s a le s Milk - s hoats & cam els 48% Staple purchas e Non-staple purchas e Milk - c a ttle Em ploym ent Household item s Input gum s /res ins g ifts Surplus incom e social services

¾ Poorer households have barely enough ¾ The sale of milk and milk products contribute the most (>60%) to ¾ In the baseline, households in this group have a animals to support them, and are likely to household income in the baseline year. Households attempt to relatively large amount of ‘surplus income’ — ‘drop out’ from the pastoral lifestyle by obtain more income (to purchase much-needed cereal) in a bad used for re-stocking or for buying less essential growing crops or moving into urban areas. year by switching milk consumption to sales; this may be at the items. This is all converted to staple purchase in Very often, a family unit may be split with expense of dietary quality. When conditions are very bad, animals a bad year. some members tending the animals and are sent far from the household, removing the possibility of extra ¾ A significant amount of expenditure is made on others seeking opportunities in the towns or income. household items (clothing, soap, salt, tea and farming areas. ¾ Livestock sales are also important; becoming much more so coffee). This is reduced in times of difficulty. ¾ The bulk of household food comes from the during times of stress (particularly during drought) when milk ¾ Social services comprise expenditure on health, purchase of staples; this is done throughout production is poor. schooling, clan taxes and loan repayments. the year. Households also purchase most of ¾ Poor households herd animals belonging to wealthier families to Since the former two are insufficient, they their other food needs except for dairy and distant markets, receiving payment in the form of a sheep or goat should not but often are reduced. The latter two meat. from the herd being sold. This is converted into cash. can be waived for households from this wealth ¾ Meat is obtained either through the ¾ Gums and resins are collected in the bush towards south Gedo; group during hard times. slaughter of domestic animals or through these are not as abundant as in other pastoral areas. ¾ A significant expenditure is made on non-staple hunting, which is more prevalent in Dawa ¾ The poor receive support through zakaa (Islamic tax) and kaalmo food, mostly sugar and edible oils, which are than in other areas. (kinship support). They may also be given cash loans during partially reduced in times of difficulty (at the ¾ Milk from camels is either sold or stress. expense non-energy nutritional requirements). consumed fresh; that of shoats and cattle ¾ Since the civil war, a small market for hides and skins has ¾ Of the inputs, veterinary drugs are essential, can also be made into ghee for storage or developed, although income from this is still minimal. This is one while money used for camel salt is switched to for selling later. area for development of income improvement. food. MIDDLE Sources of Food Income & Expandability (Sshs. 10.5 m or Expenditure & Maximising Food Access $1,250 for the year)

160% 160% 140% 140% Non-staple Meat Milk & dairy - 120% 120% 100% purchase 1% shoats & 100% 14% camels 80% 80% 40% 60% 40% 60% 20% 40% 0% Staple 20% BASELINE ACCESS MAXIMUM ACCESS purchase 0% Milk & dairy - 33% Milk sales - camels & shoats Milk sales - cattle BA SELINE INCOME MA XIMISING FOOD A CCESS cattle livestock sales livestock product sales 12% Remittance Staple purchase Non staple purchase Social services Input Surplus income Household items

¾ Higher milk and meat production means that this ¾ This group depend entirely on their animals for ¾ This group are able to put considerably more money group does not need to purchase as much food as income; either from direct sales or from sales of into the purchase of staple food from their income than the poor. Furthermore, a slightly higher percentage milk and milk products. Their comparatively large the ‘poor’ group, but their wealthier status and the cost of food needs comes from purchased items that are herd sizes also means that they can significantly of maintaining their larger herds means that the not staples, this is due to the higher purchasing increase their income by switching milk from percentage of expenditure available for use on staple power enjoyed by the group. consumption to sales and by selling more animals. food is less than that of the ‘poor’

SEASONAL CALENDAR In the rainy season, animals stay within north Gedo rangelands, while in dry seasons herds move towards the Dawa and Juba Rivers. Risk Factors Access to wild meat, fruits and birds • Prolonged and/or APRIL Milk and ghee peak season severe drought with Decrease in milk/water supply depleted pasture • Insecurity Livestock feeding on farm Kable, other wild vegetables • Market Access stalks or from fodder purchases JILAAL GU available Main dry Main Cereal to livestock terms of Increase in cereal prices trade down season (long, rainy hot and dry) season JANUARY JULY Coping Strategies DEYR HAGAY Livestock may feed on Moderate milk/ghee supply Short rains Cool dry farm stalks and from • Sale of livestock, starting with smaller species. Sale of some cattle may also be done when drought conditions Honey less available season fodder purchases are forecast or when the market (in Kenya) is good. Increased milk, decreased Increase in cereal prices ghee consumption • Seek more employment, especially herding others’ livestock to distant markets. Collection of some wild fruits and Decrease in cereal prices • More collection of bush products (for sale) vegetables OCTOBER Honey • Increased reliance on relatives and community support

Food Security Analysis Unit Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1990 Normal year Government Normal rains; collapse. Start of normal livestock insecurity. conditions. BOSSASO # 1991 Poor-normal year CEERIGAABO Fighting; Republic Gu normal, Deyr # of Somaliland poor. declared. BORAMA # 1992 Bad year HARGEYSA BURCO # # Conflict and Poor Gu and Deyr reconciliation rains. between clans in LAS CAANOOD Burao # # GAR OOWE 1993 Normal year Widespread conflict Normal Gu rains; and then poor Deyr rains. reconciliation in Toghdeer. Region Reg.Pop Reg.LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop Awdal 252695 120875 48% 1994 Normal year W.Galbeed 354145 67243 19% Gu and Deyr normal.

Sanag 190455 38409 20% Togdheer 324465 18640 6% 1995 Normal year Total 1121760 245167 Start of two-year Normal Gu rains; bad conflict centred in Deyr rains. Source: POPULATION, WHO, 2001 Burao between clans. 1996 Bad-normal year 3rd national Bad Gu rains; normal reconciliation in Deyr rains. Hargeisa. Description of LZ 1997 Flooding • The LZ mainly covers the northwest and is known to have strong connections with the Middle East and many of the New government Normal Gu; Somalis in this area are of the diaspora origin. More remittances are received from abroad in this group. strengthening peace excessive El Nino Pastoralists make up 75% of the population in the Togdheer region. in the region. Deyr rains. Damaged crops but increased

• Livestock conditions are good in this LZ, due to the presence of the mountains, which guarantee a good water livestock production. source. 1998 Bad year • Camel and cattle as well as shoat are all typically owned by pastoralists from this LZ. February – • In general animal and human population have increased over the last few years with high numbers of returnees from livestock ban on southern and central Somalia. Somali exports to • Security in the Burao area has been good since 1996; prior to this, intermittent conflict had taken place with Burao Saudi. town a particular target. 1999 • 70% of the total livestock population are sheep, 25 % goats, 4 % camel and1 % cattle. 80 % of herd composition in April/May – end of livestock ban mountainous zones are goats, whilst in the Hawd plains 75 % are sheep • This is a relatively wealthy area with diversified livestock holdings and a more guaranteed mountainous water supply. 2000 • Cattle are predominantly found in the mountainous areas.

Wealth Breakdown Normal Year Definition: Wealth is measured by herd size. 1994 used as the baseline/normal year.

Milk production: Jilaal 135 l, Gu 443 l, Hagay 295 l and Deyr 357 l = a total of 1,230 l per year.

Poor Middle Better off 20-35% 50-60% 5-15% Wealth Group Characteristic: Poor (20-30%) Middle Better off (5-10% HH size 5-8 HH size 6-12 HH size 6-12 10-70 shoats 100-150 shoats 200-300 shoats 1-2 cattle 3-7 cattle 20-40 camels 1-3 camels 5-15 camels 10-30 cattle Annual income: $1100-1200 Annual income: $1400-1500 Very poor 0-5

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $1100-1200

Gifts Livestock Own products Self/ 0-5% Non food drugs 15-25% employment Livestock items 5-10% 25-35% 20-30% 25-35%

Purchase 75-85% Livestock products 30-40% Non essential foods Food 50-55% 5-15%

¾ The main source of food comes from purchase ¾ The main source of income derives from ¾ About half the annual income is spent on comprising mostly of cereals & sugar. livestock and livestock products (milk & ghee). foodstuffs and the balance spent on non-food ¾ Milk, meat and ghee from the family herd ¾ 25-35% of the annual income for the poor items such as clothes, kerosene, medicine, soap make up the reminder of the annual food comes from employment such as livestock and koranic schooling. consumption. herding, labouring & construction and ¾ 45% of expenditure occurs during Jilaal, 12% portering. in Gu, 25% in Hagau and 18% during the Deyr ¾ Self-employment activities may be charcoal season. The income seasonality relates to this production, fodder, gum and sale of wildfoods. expenditure – 38% in Jilaal, 20% in Gu, 18% in Hagau and 25% in the Deyr season.

MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $ Non essential food Own production Livestock products 5-15% 15-20% 60-70% Livestock 30-40% Livestock drugs 0-10% Food 40-50% Purchase Non food 80-85% 20-30% Gifts 10-20%

¾ The middle group sources of food come from ¾ Main income from the sale of their own ¾ 40-50% of income is spent on food items their own production, with a small proportion production including cereals, pulses, other particularly sugar, oil, meat & milk. coming from purchasing sugar, milk, oil & crops, fodder & milk. ¾ Middle groups employ agricultural labourers meat. ¾ Households will try to avoid selling livestock. to prepare their land, plant, weeding, bird ¾ Remittance from relatives. scaring, harvesting and threshing ¾ Additionally this group will by new clothes and give other poor relatives cereal.

SEASONAL CALENDAR 20% of HH move to mountainous areas in search of water & pasture APRIL Peak season for ghee RISK FACTORS ↓ milk ♦ Livestock ban ♦ Job loss in Access to wild meat, Milk livestock sector fruits & birds increase ♦ Access to water JILAAL GU & pasture Long dry Heavy & Water scarcity – season in most cost of water rises plateau important rain Cereal purchase & season prices increase DECEMBER JULY COPING STRATEGIES Moderate DEYR HAGAU ↑ milk ↓ ghee Light rains Main dry season ghee During the livestock ban: Increase in credit More people turned to facilities Access to wild meat, fruits selling (more) milk & Sale of wild fruits & birds charcoal In dorought years: More remittances were Increased migration to Water scarcity – cost of being received mountainous areas for Cereal purchase & water rises More wild fruits being water & pastures prices increase SEPTEMBER consumed & sold

Food Securit y Analysis Unit

Time Line

Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production

1990 Normal year Insecurity Normal Gu and

# Deyr rains and production. BO RAMA # 1991 Poor year HARGE YSA BURCO # # Government Poor rains, low collapse. Start of livestock insecurity. production. LAS CAANOOD # # GAROOWE 1992 Bad year Insecurity and Poor rains. Poor livestock loss livestock trade PIA and production. IO TH E GALKACYO # 1993 Normal year Peace restored in the Good rains. north.

# DHUS A-MAREE B 1994 Normal year Trade routes Localised drought reopened. in Hawd. # BELET WEYNE 1995 Bad year Acute water shortage Low animal in Hawd. High camel production. deaths. 1996 Good year Post drought Good livestock recovery. production.

Description of LZ 1997 Good year • Sool is a higher area that stretches north towards the border with Sanag and east to the border with Bari region. El Nino induced Excellent Located south of Lasanod town, the Hawd plateaux merge with the wider Hawd zone in Ethiopia. These plateaux rains. High animal livestock have no permanent natural water sources and rely on man-made berkads and balleys. production rate. production and • The Hawd is an area of prime browsing and good grazing. good pasture. • Pastoralists make up 80-90% of the population. 1998 Bad year • Camels and goats are the major animals. Cattle and sheep are less dominant, though cattle rearing has become more Livestock ban – low Low Gu, pastoral purchasing production common with the increase of berkads – cattle need less herding and allow good ghee production. power. maintained by • In the dry season, the herd is divided, with smaller ruminants and less hardy animals (pregnant and lactating) staying 1997 Deyr. with the core family near villages and berkads, while hardy and mobile animals are led to distant ranges and water 1999 year points. • Export of livestock fund a large part of the import of foods in this area. Livestock is often bartered for foodstuffs • Cattle and goat milk is consumed fresh, especially in the wet season and also converted into ghee. Camel milk is consumed sour, and lasts longer for storage and sale. Meat is eaten fresh and preserved using traditional methods. 2000 year • Remittances are an important part of HH income, from urban relatives and the diaspora. Livestock ban re- introduced in • A particular vulnerable group are those that were displaced by war and are struggling to restock their herds. September. • Only the better-off and some middle HHs own berkads and therefore, sell water in the dry season. Kaliil is the hunger season just before the Gu rains and is a time of high labour needs for collecting water. • Poor pastoralists, with small livestock size and high water expenditure in dry times are a vulnerable group.

Wealth Breakdown Normal Year Definition: Wealth is measured by herd size. In a normal year, terms of trade are: 1 shoat = 1 50 kg bag of rice

Normal dry season water price is Ssh 1,000 for 20 l Poor Middle Better off No water trucking would be 20-30% 45-55% 15-20% necessary in the dry season.

Wealth Group Characteristic Poor Middle Better off HH size 8-9 people HH size 6-7 people HH size 8-10 people 50-60 shoats 80-100 shoats 200-250 shoats 5-10 camels 10-15 cattle 25-30 camels 0-1 donkey 25-30 camels 30-40 cattle 0-1 berkad 1-2 berkads

Annual income: $ 350 Annual income: $ 450-500 Annual income: $ 700 +

Hawd and Sool Pastoral – pg 2

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $ Wild foods Gifts 0-5% Own products Wild Shoes & Livestock 10-15% 25-35% Gifts & foods Livestock & clothes drugs remit 5-10% livestock products 10-15% 5-10% 10-15% 40-45% Other needs 5-10% Purchase 50-60% Water Food 50-55% Employment 35-40% 15-20%

¾ Over half the annual food consumption is met ¾ The main source of income derives from ¾ About half the annual income is spent on through purchase comprising mostly of cereals livestock and livestock products & foodstuffs and the balance spent on non-food (rice, flour & sorghum) & sugar, dates & employment. items such as clothes, kerosene, medicine, soap animal fats. ¾ Employment opportunities include herding, and koranic schooling. ¾ Goats milk and wild foods contribute the rest labouring & construction. ¾ Water is a significant expense in a normal year with gifts of milk donations & lactating animals ¾ Remittances are a regular and normal part of on loan. the Somaliland economy and benefit the poor ¾ Wild foods include hohob, figs, dik-dik significantly.

MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $

Wild Water foods sales Remits Shoes & Other needs Purchase Own production Livestock Sale 0-10% 5-10% 0-10% clothes 5-10% 45-55% 45-55% Self- 40-45% 10-15% employment Food Livestock 10-15% 40-50% drugs 5-10%

Livestock products Water 30-35% 15-25%

¾ Most of the annual food contribution comes ¾ Main income from the sale of their livestock & ¾ 30-35% of income is spent on food items from own produce including meat, milk & ghee, sale of animal products especially camel milk. cereal, sugar, & oil. with a small proportion coming from Goats milk is more important for home ¾ 60-70% of middle households do not have their purchasing cereal, sugar, dates and oil consumption. own water supply and so spend up to 30% of ¾ 5,110 litres of milk is produced per year with ¾ Control of milk income is shifting from the their income on water costs for their livestock. 1,250 litres skimmed and 46kg of ghee – 50- women’s responsibility to the men as it 60% consumed. becomes more of a commercial commodity.

SEASONAL CALENDAR High cereal & sugar purchase APRIL Herding of traded livestock before being RISK FACTORS Sale of grass & fodder trucked to port. ♦ Livestock ban Stock piling of livestock for Hajj Peak season for ghee ♦ Job loss in exports - ↑ income from sale livestock sector Milk production increases Wild fruits & gum ♦ Access to water Berkad construction (costs) & pasture JILAAL GU ♦ Wild predators Camel moved to Nugal valley Main dry Main rainy ↑ meat Firewood collection & sale season (long, season i hot & dry) Collection of Charcoal making construction materials COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Ghee production DEYR HAGAU ↑ milk • Increased sales of milk & charcoal Short rains Cool dry windy ↓ ghee • Remittances often increase in difficult times season Collection of • More wild fruits being consumed & sold building materials & Collection & sale of wild • Increase in credit facilities construction of huts food & gum • Livestock prices reduced • Increased migration to mountainous areas Increased sugar & cereal Rehabilitation of Maal - donation of milking animals; Xoolo goyn – re- purchase berkads stocking of poorer relatives; Qaadhan – donations in OCTOBER cash/animal to disaster stricken people; Sako – wealth distribution to the poor; Kaalo- livestock to newly weds

Prepared April 2000 by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) and Save the Children (SCF (UK)) for Somalia. While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU, SCF nor any of their supporters or partners endorse any figure or political boundary as definitive. For more information, contact FSAU, PO Box 64902, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: (254-2) 622929

1.1. Baseline Profile — Hiran Riverine: Sorghum, Maize and Cattle

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production

# 1990/91 Poor year DHUSA-MAREEB Government Poor rains. BELET WEYNE collapse -insecurity. # 1991/92 Bad year XUDUR The year of Poor rains. # starvation and famine. GARBAHAREY# BAYDHABA 1992/93 Very Poor year # More Information Available: Famine with lots of No rains, no stocks JOWHAR Lack of space restricts this profile # to just some of the details on this oedema -cagagarar from the Gu baseline. FSAU has further 1993/94 Good year MOGADISHU information available on request; UNOSOM arrives, Good Gu rains, contact [email protected] . # security improves. good Deyr rains; MERKA BUAALE Good harvest, high # livestock prices. 1994/95 Poor to normal Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop Aideed captured the year Hiran 175,500 27,050 15% region in July ‘94 Good Gu rains, poor April ‘95. 50 % of Total 175,500 27,050 15% Deyr rains; poor # KISMAYO the population crops: normal to Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 displaced. below normal 1995/96 Normal year Aideed captured Gu and Deyr: good; Baidoa town. Good harvests; good Livestock livestock prices. marketing moved to Belet-Weyne town. 1996/97 Normal year Normal Gu and Deyr; normal crop Description of LZ production. • This group live alongside the river in Hiran region, no more than 5-8 km from the river itself. However some 1997/98 Bad year households alongside the river do not always have access to irrigation facilities. El Nino floods; Gu: below normal • The Bantu make up 70-80 % of this LZ, with 20-30 % from other clans in the region. Most of the villages on the west crops destroyed; Deyr: El Nino rains bank are Bantu while on the east bank, 50% are Bantu. People displaced. cause floods. • This LZ was initially badly affected by the late 1997 El Nino floods, which damaged property and fields and brought Seasonal crops destroyed. Livestock human and livestock diseases. However, the floods also brought better soils and increased pasture and water and off-season crop availability for many months into 1998. good. • Some villages and households own pumps while some must rent pumps to irrigate their fields. 1998 Below Normal year • The population depend on both rain-fed and irrigated crop production (sorghum and maize) and have a combination of End of El-Nino Gu failure, good rain-fed and irrigated fields lying along the Shabelle River. rains. Deyr rains. Crop • Cattle are commonly owned but numbers are few. production normal. Livestock good. • The main cereals grown are sorghum (dura) and some maize. Intercropping is common - sorghum and cowpeas 1999 Poor Year • Cash crops include sesame, onions, tomatoes, green peppers, and watermelon. Households use cowpea leaves and Ugas Khalif died. Gu and Deyr poor; stalks for fodder and as a source of income. Mango trees provide another source of income for some households Security situation Rain-fed crop failure. • Belet-Weyne has become an important marketing town between Ethiopia, Mogadishu, the northeast and Bay and deteriorates. Bakol. Livestock, cereals, vegetables and other commodities are all traded. This growth of Belet Weyne town and the 2000 Gu: normal. general stability of the area have generated additional job and market opportunities for the local population. Heavy insect and Good rain-fed/ and • This LZ sells fodder to the agro-pastoralists and sell their produce and bring construction materials to towns bird infestation in irrigated crop. rain-fed crop areas.

Wealth Breakdown Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated. Baseline Year Definition:

In a baseline year, the availability of food at the household level for the poor tends to be lower at the beginning of the Gu and Deyr seasons. Poor Middle Better off

30-40% 50-60% 5-15% Consume premature crops prior to Wealth Group Characteristic harvest to increase their food Poor Middle Better off consumption Hh size 6-7 persons HH size 6-7 persons HH size 6-7 persons ½ - 1.3 ha of rain fed land and 1.5-3 ha of rain-fed land and may 3-6 ha rain-fed; 2-3 ha irrigated Yields: may irrigate a further 0.3 ha. irrigate a further 0.5-1.5 ha. 5-10 cattle Sorghum 250-300 kg/ha no pumps 3-5 cattle 20-25 shoats Maize 300-350 kg/ha 0-3 cattle 10-15 shoats 1 donkey + cart Cowpea 200-250 kg/ha (mainly as 0-4 shoats 1 donkey + cart green harvest) Annual income: $ 325-350 Annual income: $ 450-500 Annual income: $ 800-1000 Very poor: 0-5%

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $325-350

Sale of cereals Schooling Own products Purchase & pulses Agric. inputs 0-10% 55-75% Employment 30-40% 5-10% 0-10% 5-15% Other 15-25%

Sale of fruit Self- & vegetable Employment Food 65-75% 20-30% Honey 5-10% 25-35%

¾ The main sources of food are from ¾ A poor household may sell some cereal after the harvest: to ¾ The largest proportion of expenditure is production of cereals & pulses. However, settle debt and ensure access to credit in the future, to make spent on food including cereal, sugar, oil & the poor households do not make up their purchases requiring large sums of money and to reduce the skimmed milk. annual needs through their own products pressure to provide food for other relatives coming for a loan ¾ Poor households will also spend money on so have to purchase additional cereals. of cereal. Poor households may also sell some honey and agricultural inputs particularly fuel and ¾ Sugar & oil are also purchased. some fruit. pump hire, Koranic schooling and non-food ¾ Employment consists of agricultural labour - ploughing, items including household items such as ridging, planting, weeding, bird scaring & harvesting. At clothes, soap, shoes, kerosene, & human least one member per family for 90-100 days per year (Sshs drugs. 5000/day) ¾ Self-employment includes sale of crop residue for fodder and collection & sale of grass. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $450-500 Schooling Livestock sales Livestock Cereals/pulses 5-15% 0-8% Shoes/clothes Own production 5-10% 15-25% Medicine 0-8% 2-10% Purchase 60-75% Other 0-6% 20-30% Food Fruit & Agricultural 40-50% vegetable Inputs 20-30% Milk sales 10-20% Self-employment 30-40% 5-15% Gifts 15-20% ¾ Own production consists of cereal & pulses ¾ The main sources of income come from sale of ¾ The middle wealth group also employ consumption. The middle wealth group will not milk, sale of cereal (maybe 6 sacks when agricultural labourers both to prepare land, plant need to purchase additional cereals. required), sale of fruit and sale of small stock (2 & weed. A proportion of the farm labour would ¾ Purchase items include sugar & oil. 3 animals a year if remittance is not available). be done by the household and the balance would ¾ A proportion of own milk will be consumed, ¾ Self-employment is another source of income be done by hired agricultural labourers. some sold & some made into ghee for home from collection & sale of bush products, ¾ Middle groups hire a tractor to prepare land. 1 consumption. firewood & charcoal using a donkey cart. Ha takes 3-4 hours & can cost Sshs 50-60,000 ¾ Remittance from relatives usually invested in for 1 hour. Additionally expenditure may agriculture. include the hire of a pump. ¾ The middle group gives gifts of cereal & honey.

SEASONAL CALENDAR Land preparation, ploughing, planting Sorghum, maize, cowpeas 1st plant/replant Collection & sale RISK FACTORS Decrease in milk APRIL Milk production increases of bush products availability • Flooding Cereal prices increase Maize planting • Fuel & pump rental Mangos in costs for fodder Blocked roads season • Pest infestation Fish peak – water transport/trade disruptions • Looting levels low JILAAL GU Peak season for ghee Cereal prices decrease Long dry Heavy & production season in most Honey production plateau important rain Fishing peak when increases river is high Sorghum harvest season COPING STRATEGIES JULY JANUARY Maize, sorghum, DEYR HAGAY cowpea harvest Sale of cereals in store Light rains Short dry, Fodder/grass harvest • Migration to areas of better production/potential, windy season Milk increases Decrease in Ghee/milk including Wabi Shabelle area in Ethiopia, for labour, sharecropping & shifting cultivation Cereal prices Collection and sale of grasses, • Movement to Belet Weyne town for job/market increases poles and charcoal opportunities • Increased fish collection Planting of sorghum, Land preparation some maize & cowpea OCTOBER • Increased livestock sales • Increased collection of bush products

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Time Line Event Production 1990 Very Poor year # No rains, no stocks BELET WEYNE

# XUDUR 1991 Conflict year Conflict, looting, displacement, # BAYDHABA disease GARBAHAREY # 1992 Conflict year # Fighting, drought No farming JOWHAR and disease No harvest outbreak. MOGADISHU More Information Available: Lack of space restricts this profile 1993 Good year # to just some of the details on this Improved security. Good rains; good MERKA baseline. FSAU has further Markets open via harvest. BUAALE information available on request; # Mogadishu. contact [email protected] . 1994 Poor to normal Water pumps year distributed by IRC. Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop Good maize Start of recovery harvest. Good Gedo 385,000 35,050 9% for riverine people. onion and tomato M. Juba 240,000 14,000 6% prices. # KISMAYO Total 625,000 49,050 8% 1995 Good year Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 Excellent onion and Good cash crop tomato prices harvest. Poor rain- fed harvest. 1996 Good year Good market prices Good production in and good road irrigated fields. accessibility Normal harvest in rain-fed areas. Description of LZ 1997 Mixed year • The LZ is found along the upper Juba River and the Dawa River - North of Sakow up to Dolo and Belet Hawa Deyr – El Nino Good Gu districts, except for sections in Burdhubo and Luuq districts, where there is no riverine agriculture. floods. Sand and production. Deyr • The land is cultivated by a mixture of owner occupiers, share-croppers and renter farmers. Most farmers rent pumps. silt dunes over flood damage. • It is the major producing area for onion and tobacco in Somalia. Maize is also a major crop. Also tomatoes and pepper irrigated fields. • In general this riverine agriculture is equally intense along the river, though around Luuq and Bardhera, cultivations is 1998 Poor to normal Abandoning part of slightly more intense (particularly of onion and tobacco) year the irrigated fields. Poor Gu, following • Since the El Nino rains and subsequent droughts, livestock holdings have dropped to insignificant levels. Normally Hiring of farms El Nino. Better livestock ownership would be very small, with a few lactating cattle, a few shoats as well as chickens kept. These further from the Deyr. Good cash animals would be zero grazed. Richer households might keep larger herds with kin in inland areas. river. crop production. • The major market for onions is Mogadishu, though with peace and people returning to Baidoa, this is also a growing 1999 Normal Year market. Tobacco is supplied to all of Somalia. Maize tends to be sold only locally. Onion seeds Maize produced in • This group is vulnerable to high input prices, flooding, low producer prices and market access. expensive. January- both seasons, as • This group is most closely linked to urban and agro-pastoral LZ’s, through crop-sharing, marketing and kin-ship, and SACB ban imposed cereal prices high on Gedo region least linked to pastoralists, who in dry years sometimes come into conflict over access to land and the river. 2000 Normal Gu • In the Gu season, maize occupies a majority of the area, while in the Deyr maize occupies about 50% of the land River level low in season cultivated. The state of rain-fed production will also influence choice of crops. early Gu. Lower cereal prices • Sharecropping or labour opportunities offer alternative income opportunities for other groups in bad rainfall years. Gedo ban lifted in due to good rain- • Poor rain-fed production benefits this group as prices for their cereal production will be higher. July fed production

Wealth Breakdown Baseline Year Definition: Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated. A baseline (normal) year occurs when the local commercial crop production is neither very high nor very low and prices do not fluctuate.

Poor Middle Better off 1996 was considered a baseline year. 30-40% 50-60% 5-20% Normal Gu: 60-70% of land area to cereal, 30-40% to cash crops. Wealth Group Characteristic Normal Deyr: 40-60% maize, 40- 60% cash crops. Poor Middle Better off Maize yield: 0.6-0.8 MT/Ha

HH size 3-5 HH size 8-15 HH size 15 + Land ownership is higher in the south and lower in the north. 3-5 ha 8-15 ha 20 + ha or 2-3 different farms 0-1 pumps owned 1-2 pumps owned 1-3 pumps owned Pumps are 1 piston, Indian rocket Annual income: $ 325-550 Annual income: $ 400-500 pumps.

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $1500-1600

Wild foods Gifts Credit/loan 0-5% Other needs 0-10% Own products 15-25% 60-65% 10-15% Food 25-25% Purchase 25-30% Crop sales 75-85% Non-food essentials 55-65%

¾ In a normal year the poor access their food ¾ The main sources of income are sales of maize ¾ The largest amount of money is spent on non- through own production (20 bags – 1000 kg (16 bags @ 60,000 per bag), tobacco (300 rolls food essentials including fuel, oil, spare parts consumed of maize) @ 4000 per roll), onions (100 bags @ 50,000 per and repairs for the irrigation pumps. ¾ Additionally, a small amount of food comes bag) and sesame (6 bags @ 200,000 per bag). ¾ Food purchases include sugar, tea and oil. from the market including sugar, oil & skimmed ¾ Additionally they take a credit loan that they pay ¾ Other needs are household items such as milk. back from the next sale of the own production kerosene, clothing and schooling. ¾ Gifts amount to 2 bags of cereal. harvested. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $2650-2750 Purchase Own production Remittance Other needs 60-70% Credit/loan Food 25-35% 30-40% 0-5% 10-15% 5-15%

Crop production 80-90% Non-food essential 55-65%

¾ The middle group sources of food come from ¾ Main income from the sale of their own ¾ Similarly to the poor, the largest amount of their own production of maize and cowpeas, with production including maize (45 bags @ 60,000 money is spent on non-food essentials including a small proportion coming from purchasing sugar, per bag), tobacco (800 rolls @ 4000 per roll), fuel, oil, spare parts and repairs for the irrigation oil, wheat flour & meat. and onions (200 bags @ 50,000 per bag). pumps and pesticides & seed. However, more ¾ Middle households will take a loan of about money is spent on fuel and oil to pump-irrigate a Sshs 2 million. larger piece of land. ¾ Other costs include food purchases (oil, sugar, meat, vegetables & wheat flour) and household items, clothing & schooling.

SEASONAL CALENDAR RISK FACTORS Early maize planting: 20-30% of total • High input prices – fuel, spare Land preparation, ploughing, Crop planting (maize, cowpeas, sesame) parts ridging, etc) APRIL Onion/Tobacco nursery • Flooding/low river level • Crop pests and diseases Onion harvest every two Planting & weeding • Reduced marketing opportunities months from nursery Green maize/beans • Indebtedness Tobacco harvest every JILAAL GU consumption • Insecurity four months from nursery Main dry Main rainy Early maize harvest Decrease in maize prices season (long, season hot and dry) Increase in cereal prices Maize harvest prior to harvest COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Increase in maize prices DEYR HAGAY Bulk of maize/sesame prior to harvest harvest Short rains Cool Dry - More seeking of credit facilities – especially Green maize/cowpeas season Decrease in maize prices by middle and better-off. consumption. Tobacco harvested every - Increased remittances, by non-Bantu and Planting & weeding two months from nursery upper middle and better-off groups. - Poor will look for work on other farms (crop- Tobacco/Onion harvest every two shareholding, labouring) months/4 months from nursery Onions harvested every four months from nursery - Increased self-employment (bush products, OCTOBER charcoal, firewood) Crop planting (Maize, cowpeas, sesame)

1.1. Baseline Profile — Lower and Middle Juba Agro-Pastoral: Maize and Cattle

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Map of Food Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1991 Poor to medium year More Information Available: USC attacked Juba Gu rains were Lack of space restricts this profile Valley and captured average but Deyr to just some of the details on this Kismayo. IDP’s to rains failed. baseline. FSAU has further Kenya. Looting. information available on request; contact [email protected] . 1992 Bad year SPM recaptured Crop failure, cattle BUAALE Kismayo. Relief died from drought. # food. SPM conflict with Col. Jess. 1993 Normal-good year Cholera outbreak. Good rainfall and SPM-SNA and USA- crop production SNA recaptured Region Reg. Reg. LZ LZ as % of Kismayo. UNOSOM Pop total Reg. Pop sponsored M. Juba 203000 22200 11% reconciliation L. Juba 339140 63919 19% 1994 Good year KISMAYO Repatriation Good crop and # Total 542140 86119 Source: POPULATION, WHO, 2001 movement and peace livestock production conference in Dobley and Kismayo 1995 Normal year Repatriation Average crop and movement by livestock production. UNHCR succeeds. 1996 Bad year Mass livestock Average crop slaughter due to production but very disease and drought. poor livestock IDP’s move to Kenya condition. 1997 Mixed year Description of LZ El Nino Deyr: camel Above normal Gu • This agro-pastoral LZ covers Badhaadhe, Afmadow, Hagar, Jilib and Sakow districts in Lower and Middle Juba. and shoat death rate production. El Nino high. Poor crop and Deyr. • The LZ is mainly dependent on cattle, shoats and maize for their livelihood. livestock production • The agro-pastoralists rely on rain-fed dheshek cultivation, the latter being water holding depressions, where 1998 Mixed year recessional cropping is commonplace. The main crop grown is maize. Sorghum is grown mainly in Sakow district, the Serious clan fighting Bad Gu-rats and maize-sorghum border area. Cowpeas are grown, largely for consumption, as well as sesame, for sale. in Sakow. birds’ infestation. • Livestock products include milk, ghee and live animal sales. Anthrax and tick • During the cultivation period (Gu and Deyr rains), animals are moved away from the farming area and only a few born diseases. milking animals are left behind. Better/normal Deyr 1999 Normal year • Livestock, especially cattle, are traded in Kenya, with good prices during the Gu and Deyr season as well as the Capture (June) of Gu normal rains and beginning of the Jilaal. Livestock prices and demand decrease during the Hagay season. Kismayo by Juba production, Deyr • Poor and middle wealth groups do not own camels, while the better-off wealth group has few camels. Valley Alliance below normal • There has been little international or agency presence since 1994, due to sporadic clashes and a lack of effective 2000 Normal year administrative structures. Unusual live-stock Gu – poor production • The Lower Juba area has higher and more reliable rainfall than other parts of Somalia, with coastal areas benefiting movement from for crops and Kenya. livestock. from Hagay showers. This region is also relatively rich in natural resources, having a coastline (fishing), good agricultural potential (river and dhesheks), thick forests (wood and charcoal) and livestock (especially cattle). • The bulk of the agro-pastoralists are predominantly of the Absaame group, with Rahanweyn east of the river. • In the dry season livestock are moved towards dheshek and riverine areas, with core Hh's remaining at home.

Wealth Breakdown Baseline Year Definition Wealth is measured by land holding and herd size. In a normal year rainfall ranges from 500-600 mm. Normal yields: Very Poor Poor Middle Poor Maize 0.7-0.8 tons/ha 2-4% 25-30% 50-60% 15-20% Sorghum 0.4-0.5 tons/ha Cowpea 0.4-0.5 tons /ha Sesame 0.3-0.4 tons/ha

In a normal year, terms of trade are: Wealth Group Characteristic: -At harvest: 1l milk = 2.5 kg cereal (cattle or Poor Middle Better off camel) HH size 6-7 HH size 7-8 HH size 7-8 1 local quality goat = 1 50 kg sack Land holding: 0.75-1 Ha. (3-7 darab) Land holding: 3-4 ha. of land Land holding: 7-10 ha. of land cereal 0-6 cattle 10-20 cattle 40-50 cattle -After harvest (Hagay), livestock will 1-6 shoats 10-15 shoats 20-30 shoats graze in the fields (baldaaq); in Gu 5-10 camels and Deyr, livestock will move away Annual income: $ 636 (Sshs from the household and fields. .5,094,000) In Jilaal, livestock will move to local water points.

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

12 0 % 12 0 %

10 0 % Non-staple 10 0 % purchase Cereal crops 80% Staple 14% 54% 80% purchase 60% 20% 60% 40% 40% Wild food 20% 1% 20% 0% Gifts BA SELINE INCOM E M A XIM ISING FOOD A CCESS 4% Milk Non-cereal 0% crops 6% B A SELINE A CCESS M A XIM UM A CCESS Staple purchase No n-staple purchase 1% cereal cro p sales no n-cereal cro p sales Milk sales Ho usehold items Input Surplus inco me so cial services livesto ck sales Emplo yment Self-emplo yment ¾ Poor households consume their own- ¾ Sale of livestock products, especially milk, makes ¾ Half of the expenditure is on food items (65-70%) produced cereals and cowpeas, which make up one-half of poor Hh’s income. indicating that the poor do not produce sufficient food up almost two-thirds of the food sources. ¾ Employment and sale of livestock products for consumption. ¾ Livestock products contribute little (5-10%) contribute each about one-quarter to income for ¾ Household items include salt, kerosene, clothes, etc. the ¾ Purchase of sugar, oil, rice and some meat, this wealth group. Employment income is mainly minimum requirement of which comprises around 20% makes up about a quarter of food sources. from farm labour. of total baseline expenditure. ¾ Wild foods include leaves like such as garas, ¾ In hard times, cereal crops will be consumed ¾ Inputs are animal and human medicines, expenditure on mareer, shalooley and wild honey. while more milk will be sold. which would be cut under duress, as would social services (Koranic school). ¾ Under stress, much expenditure on non-staple food will be also be reduced, leaving approximately 80% of baseline expenditure available for staple purchase. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $ 636 Livestock Milk/meat Own production Remittance sales Other needs Wild foods 5-10% 60-65% 0-5% 5-10% 20-25% 15-25%

Purchase Food 25-30% 45-50%

Non-food Crop sales Livestock 35-40% products essentials 30-35% 30-35% ¾ The middle wealth group consume mostly their ¾ Crop products (mainly cowpea & sesame) and ¾ About half of the expenditure is on food items – own-produced cereals and cowpeas, which make up livestock products (milk & ghee) are the main sugar, oil, meat and rice (45-50%). two thirds of the food sources. income sources, contributing 35-40%, and 30-35% ¾ Non-food essentials-clothing, agric expense, ¾ Livestock products contribute little (5-10%) respectively. animal & human medicines, make up 20-25% ¾ Purchase of sugar, oil, rice and some meat, makes ¾ Live animal sales (especially cattle) are not very ¾ The ‘other needs’ category purchased by this up about a quarter of food sources. common and are resorted to mostly in the dry WG include tea leaves, detergents, salt, Koran ¾ Common wild foods include garas, mareer, seasons. Although they are high-value, they school and kerosene shalooley and wild honey. contribute only 20-25% to income ¾ Middle households receive some remittance.

SEASONAL CALENDAR Livestock around water points Increase in agricultural labour opportunities - Gathering and sale of firewood, APRIL planting and weeding- maize, sorghum, cowpeas fodder and water Increase in commodity prices as roads RISK FACTORS Wild ‘garas’ available cut-off by rains • Low cattle mobility & Decrease in crop prices Increase in milk and ghee high water demand production. • Livestock diseases Increase in milk/ghee JILAAL GU • Cattle trade with Kenya Collection/sale of wild foods production Long dry Heavy & • Few dry season water pts season in most Peak honey production Increase in livestock and in grazing areas plateau important meat prices Crop harvest rainy season Peak honey production JANUARY JULY Increase in livestock DEYR HAGAY Crop harvest COPING STRATEGIES prices Light rains Main dry season Drop in crop prices Increase in honey, wild – showers in leaves and wild seeds coastal areas Decrease in milk and ghee - Increased livestock sales availability production - Collection of wild foods (especially water Increase in self-employment Increased collection of construction lilies) in riverine and dheshek areas materials - More employment and self-employment Bird scaring for sorghum Crop prices start to rise sharply seeking (bush products) - Community support – easier if localise Increase in milk/ghee production Livestock OCTOBER vulnerability in nearby Land preparation, planting & weeding High cereal & sugar purchase - Increased remittance seeking (within Somalia) fields

Food Security Analysis Unit

Time Line

Map of Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1990 year

BO SS AS O # 1991 Conflict year

CE ERI GAABO # 1992 year

BO RAMA # 1993 year HARGE YSA BURCO # # 1994 year

LAS CAANOOD # # GAROOWE 1995 year

1996 Near Normal Region Reg. Pop Reg. LZ total LZ as % of Reg. Pop Number of sellable year Nugal 164700 21875 13% livestock few. Recovery from Sool 145880 122189 83% previous drought

Sanag 190455 19040 10% good market access

Total 501035 163104 for all animals Source: POPULATION, WHO, 2001 1997 Good year Normal livestock condition. Good pasture. 1998 Below Normal year Description of LZ Below normal • Nugal Valley is a flat lowland beginning from the border of Togdheer with Sool and extending eastwards to the rains. Large out-

Indian Ocean. The area is characterised by vast grass plains dissected randomly by hills and mountains with streams migration to Sool

flowing towards the plains carrying run-off water. The majority of the Nugal valley belongs to the Sool region, Plateau while the lower part (eastern) of the valley is located in the Nugal region. This area is well known for its’ seasonal 1999 Poor year grazing plains – Banadde and Karamaan. Poor Gu rains • Main livestock are sheep and camel, but the eco-zone is good for all four species, but for lack of pasture. affecting most • The Nugal has been labelled as a drought prone zone due to its’ scanty, unpredictable rainfall (100-150 mm average parts. annual precipitation). 2000 Normal year • Livestock are taken to Nugal for water and to browse salty drought resistant plants. Water sources are hand-dug Livestock Ban Normal Gu and wells, shallow wells and springs that contain hard water rich in minerals. Sheep, camels, and cattle exploit these Deyr rains. resources in a cycled seasonal grazing system moving between different grazing units. However, this area is suffering from over grazing involving soil erosion, galley formation, loss of perennial grass and an increase of 2001 Very Poor year unpalatable plants. Below normal • Camels are normally trucked to the Nugal once a month and stay for some weeks to benefit from the salty plants. rainfall Gu and Deyr Horses, sheep and special camel herds known as Qazaal, are kept in the Nugal to access water. In a drought situation, sheep are grazed on the Nugal lowland and camel and goats are kept on the Haud and Sool plateau. 2002 Normal to Poor • Commercial dairying is practised by those who own Qazaal camels,which rarely migrate and can lactate for over 2 Slightly below normal Gu. In- years. The Qazaal camels feed on drought resistant plants and constitute 20-25% of Nugal camels. migration from sool • The LZ interacts with fishing, urban, and Hawd pastoral LZs, for seasonal grazing, water, market and employment plateau

Wealth Breakdown Normal Year Definition: Wealth is measured by herd size. In normal years the pastoralists widely disperse themselves into the vast plains.

Poor Middle Better off 30-35% 50-60% 15-20% Wealth Group Characteristic

Poor Middle Better off HH size 6-7 HH size 7-8 HH size 9-11 4-8 camels 25-30 camels 80-100 camels 60-75 shoats 100-150 shoats 200-250 shoats 1-2 donkeys 0-3 horses 5-7 donkey/horses Annual income: Ssh. 3,730,000 Annual income: Ssh. 4,600,000 2-3 houses

Very poor

POOR

Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = 3,730,000 Ssh

Shoes & Other needs Own production Livestock clothes 5-10% 20-30% Employment 20-30% 50-60% 5-10% Livestock Purchase drugs 0-5% 70-80%

Food 75-85% Livestock products 15-25% ¾ 70-80% of food is from purchase of ¾ Main income is from animal sales both to cereals, sugar and oil. local and export markets (about 15 shoats ¾ Main expenditure is on food items. These ¾ About one third is achieved through own per year) items include cereals, sugar and oil. production (mailnly milk) ¾ Employment opportunities make up for ¾ Expenditure on clothes/shoes is about 20-30% of income sources – poor double expenditure on livestock drugs pastoralists may work up to 60 days/year. ¾ Expenditure on ‘other needs’ include ¾ The main livestock product sold is milk expenditure on non-food essential, Koran sales (about 365 litres per year is sold) school, soaps and detergents, etc.

MIDDLE

Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = 4,600,000 Ssh Shoes & Other needs clothes 10-15% Own production Livestock products 5-15% Purchase Livestock Sale 30-40% 35-45% 60-70% 55-65% Livestock Food drugs 0-10% 70-75%

¾ 60-70% of food is from purchase of ¾ About one-third of the income is from cereals, sugar and oil. livestock sales both to local and export ¾ Main expenditure is on food items (70- ¾ The rest of food is from own production – markets (about 20 shoats per year) 75%); these items include cereals, sugar mainly milk. ¾ The rest of the income is from livestock and oil. product sale – mainly milk sales (about ¾ Expenditure on clothes/shoes (10%) is 900 litres per year is sold) about double that on livestock drugs (6%) ¾ ‘Other needs’ includes non-food essential, koran school, soaps and detergents, etc.

SEASONAL CALENDAR

Sale of grass & fodder Herding of traded livestock before APRIL RISK FACTORS Stock piling of livestock for being trucked to port. ♦ Distance between export - ↑ income from sale water and pasture Peak season for milk & ghee ♦ Environmental Peak (Haj) livestock exports degradation/ Structural Wild fruits & gum colleciton ↑ meat prices factors JILAAL GU ♦ Livestock ban Firewood collection Main dry Main rainy Berkad construction/renovation & sale season (long, season hot & dry Collection of Charcoal making construction materials COPING STRATEGIES DECEMBER JULY

DEYR HAGAU ↑ milk & ↓ ghee Diversification of livestock species in order to Short rains Cool dry season exploit the Nugal and neighbouring ecozones Ghee production Collection & sale of wild More employment seeking, through household food & gum splitting Collection of building materials & construction of huts High cereal & sugar purchase Increased remittances or increased contact with urban relatives Rehabilitation/construction of berkads SEPTEMBER Terms of trade? Credit from traders

Food Security Assessment Unit

Time Line Map of Food Economy Group & Population Figures Event Production 1990 year

SAKOW # KU 1991 Bad year Conflict between USC Limited or no BUAALE Y# and SPM, mainly east production of the river. People Xagar fled to Kenya and Mog # 1992 Bad year JILIB Conflict between SPM Limited production # # AFMADOW and SNA as people had fled cause of conflict JAMAAME # 1993 Normal year UNOSOM. A few Good Harvests people returning o the Y# KISMAYO Region Reg. Pop Reg. FEG FEG as % of area, in February

total Reg. Pop 1994 Normal year

M. Juba 244000 45250 19% Over 70% of the Good Production BADHADHE L. Juba 298140 40765 14% population reported to # Total 542140 86015 have returned to the district Source: WHO Population 2001 1995 Average to Good Over 80% of the year population reported to Poor in the rainfed have returned to the area, good in the district dheshek areas 1996 Bad year Poor rainfall in Description of FEG deyr, poor ? The riverine FEG covers Jamame, Kismayo, Jilib, and Buale districts in Lower and Middle Juba. production. Normal ? The inhabitants are predominantly ethic Bantu group, whose livelihoods depend on farming within the range of 5 production in Gu 12Km on both sides of the river Juba. The eastern side of the river is densely populated than the western side due 1997 Bad year to better security and river flooding damages. El Nino endemic El nino. Flooding ? They are currently flood recession farmers, mainly relying on rainfall but occasionally open riverbank gates (not diseases outbreaks crops were controllable), which create substantial damages to crops, village settlements and road linkages. Previously they (malaria, skin diseases) damaged.

were known as Dheshek farmers this was not accurate. Dhesheks are natural depressions in the flood plain of the Juba River, of which recessional cropping is practised. 1998 Normal year Good production ? The poor own neither cattle nor shoats. The middle wealth groups do not own cattle and have insignificant number of shoats and ox carts, while the better-off have a few cattle, shoats and ox carts. ? The main crops grown are maize, sesame, pumpkin, tomatoes and mangoes. Also grown are cassava, potatoes, and 1999 Bad year cowpea. Drought: mango Poor rainfall. No ? Riverine groups also have perennial fruit trees mainly mangoes and coconut. Mangoes plantations are at the consumption production riverbanks stretching from north of Jilib until Bulo-gadud area of Kismayu. Coconut trees start from the coast due to higher salinity of the area up to the lower part of the river, that is part of Kismayu.

2000 Bad year Recapture of Kismayu No rainfall. No by SNF. production. Displacements

Wealth Breakdown Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated. Normal Year Definition:

Poor Middle Better off 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% Wealth Group Characteristic Poor Middle Better off HH size 7-9 HH size 7-9 HH size 7-9 0.75 - 2ha. land 1.5 - 2 ha. land 2.5 - 5 ha. land 0 cattle 0 - 1 cattle 1 - 2 cattle 0 shoats 2 - 5 shoats 5 - 10 shoats Mango and coconut plantation 0 - 1 ox cart 1 - 2 ox cart Annual income: $ Mango and coconut plantation Mango and coconut plantation Annual income: $ Annual income: $

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

Wild Gifts gifts Other Foods Own self 3% 3% 10% 1% productio employme crop Non-food n nt sales essential 55% 20% 35% 26% Food Purchase Purchase 41% Agricultur livestock 64% e labour sales 40% 2% � The main food sources are mainly own � Agricultural labour and crop sales (maize, � Most of the expenditure is on food items (64%) production but also a reasonable amount from sesame, pumpkin, mangoes) contribute about indicating that the poor WG do not produce purchases which include maize, sugar, oil, three quarters of the income sufficient food for home use meat, fresh and skimmed milk � Self- employment consists of collection of bush � Non food essentials are clothing, kerosene, � Fish consumption contributes substantially to products and charcoal sale school fees, fishing hooks, medicine the food sources. � Livestock sales consists of sale of chicken and � ‘Other needs’ include hoes, chemicals, social � Wild food is widely consumed common eggs contribution, tobacco and coffee include fish, wild animals, birds, roots and � The poor WG receive remittances grain. � Gifts consist of 1 bag of maize

MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

self Social Wild agricultu Other Purchase employ support Food re 3% 35% ment 7% 1% labour 13% 6% Non food Food Own Crop essential Purchase productio livestock sales s 55% n sales 79% 35% 64% 2%

� The middle WG consume most of their own � Crop sales (maize, sesame, cowpea, pumpkin, � About half of the expenditure is on food items production which makes up to two thirds of the tomatoes & potatoes) are the main income – maize, sugar, meat, fresh and skimmed milk food sources sources � Non food essentials include clothing, kerosene, � Common wild food include ambogo, rasow and � Self employment includes ox-cart and salt and soap, pesticides, school fees, fishing, dhereriow and fish charcoal tobacco and coffee. � Purchased food include maize, sugar, meat, oil, � Livestock sales consists of sale of chicken and � They provide some social support fresh and skimmed milk eggs � ‘Other needs’ consist of expense incurred in harvesting

SEASONAL CALENDAR Early maize planting: 20-30% of total RISK FACTORS Land preparation, ploughing, APRIL Crop planting (maize, cowpea, ? High input prices – fuel, ridging, etc) groundnut, vegetable) spare parts ? Flooding/low river level Harvest of sesame Collection/sale of wild foods Planting & weeding ? Crop pests and diseases ? Reduced marketing opps Charcoal burning, Green maize/cowpea ? Indebtedness JILAAL GU collection of bush products consumption ? Insecurity Main dry Main rainy Early maize harvest Decrease in maize prices season (long, season hot and dry) Increase in cereal prices Maize harvest prior to harvest COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Increase in maize prices DEYR HAGAAY Bulk of maize harvest prior to harvest Short rains Decrease in maize prices Cool Dry - More seeking of credit facilities – especially by Pot making and small season skill handicraft Consumption of maize and middle and better-off. cowpea - Increased remittances, by non-Bantu and upper Planting & weeding middle and better-off groups. Collection/sale of wild - Poor will look for work on other farms (crop foods Harvest of sesame shareholding, labouring) Crop planting (sesame, - Increased self-employment (bush products, Crop planting (Maize, cowpeas, watermelon) charcoal, firewood) sesame, water melon) OCTOBER -Increased collection of wild foods and fishing

Prepared April 2002 by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) for Somalia. While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU, nor any of their supporters or partners endorse any figure or political boundary as definitive. For more information, contact FSAU, PO Box 1230, Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: (254 -2) 3741299 1.1. Baseline Profile — Shabelle Riverine: Irrigated Maize

FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT

Map of Food Economy Zone & Population Figures Time Line Event Production # 1990 Normal year BELET WEYNE Large displaced XUDUR # population from Mogadishu arrived

GARBAHAREY 1991 Bad year Heavy fighting # BAYDHABA # Looted goods in the # JOWHAR market More Information Available: 1992 Very bad year Lack of space restricts this profile to just some of the details on this High food prices Poor livestock MOGADISHU baseline. FSAU has further condition #MERKA information available on request; 1993 Bad year BUAALE contact [email protected] . Abundant food aid # Security OK 1994 Good year Region Reg. Pop Reg. FEZ total FEZ as % of Reg. Many primary Good livestock & Pop canals rehabilitated crop production L. Shabelle 619,920 106200 17% by SC US 1995 Normal year # M. Juba 240,000 6000 3% KISMAYO Irrigated crop 346,870 54921 16% M Shabelle normal; Deyr rain Total 1,206,790 167121 fed crops poor Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 1996 Bad to normal Severe drought year High maize prices Normal irrigated High cattle deaths crop production Poor livestock condition 1997 Bad Year Description of FEZ Late 1997 – El ? The households of this FEZ within 10 km of the river throughout lower and middle Shabelle. Nino floods, disease, destruction ? Crops grown are maize, sesame and a variety of vegetables. & displacement ? There are extensive irrigation systems in the area, many of which were destroyed in the 1997/98 El Nino floods but which are being repaired since then. 1998 Poor Year ? In the upper parts of L Shabelle, Bantu people predominate, who are specialist irrigation farmers with very small or Abundant water & Poor Gu rains non-existent livestock holdings. In the lower parts, communities are more mixed with more livestock around. pasture from El Good off-season ? Rainfall is more reliable in this coastal area, and it benefits particularly from the Hagay rains Nino rains. crop production Unusual rodent ? Production is also more reliable due to the irrigation facilities infestation ? A more diversified economy, with fruits, vegetables and other cash crops complement the cereal production ? The existence of the Hagay rains and irrigation (river levels peak in September-October) allows considerable off season production.

Wealth Breakdown Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated.

Poor Middle Better-off 35-45% 45-60% 5-10% Baseline Year Definition:

July 1999 to June 2000 is the year considered as baseline. NB. 1 bag = 75 kg Wealth Group Characteristic Yields: Poor (25-40%) Middle 50-60% Better off 5-10% Maize: l Qt/ha (8-1,200 kg/ha) or 20 HH size 4-8 HH size 8-9 HH size 5-6 bags/ha (@ 75 kg) per year + 1 bag of green, depending on farm size) Land holding 0.5-1 ha Land holding 1.5-2 ha Land holding 3-5 ha Cowpeas: 4 bags/ha (@ 75 kg) per year Family structure: 1-3 wives per man, Family structure: 1 wife per man, Family structure: 1 wife per Sesame: 3 bags/ha (@ 60 kg) per year 8-15 members of family 8-9 members per family man, 5-6 members per family Annual income in baseline: $ 180-200 Prices (large difference between buying and selling prices): Very poor sub-group (10-15%) Maize per bag: $3.57 selling, $8.20 per 0-0.3 Ha bag buying Average cereal price: $4.46 per bag Cowpeas: $8.50 per bag Sesame: 25¢ per kg

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $ 180 -$200

140% 140% 120% 120% Harvest - Non-staple cereals 100% 100% purchase 42% 80% 16% 80% 60% 60% Staple 40% purchase 40% 21% 20% 20% 0% 0% BASELINE INCOME MAXIMISING FOOD Animal Harvest - non- BASELINE ACCESS MAXIMU M ACCESS ACCESS products cereals cereal sales Non-cereal sales Animal products 2% 19% Staple purchase Non-staple purchase casual labour self employment Fodder sales Household items Input Surplus income social services

� Cereals (maize) and pulses � Seasonal agricultural work is very � Close to half of household (cowpeas) normally cover 60-70% important and comes at a time when expenditure is on food, the bulk of of annual food needs. food stocks are low (just before it on non-staple types. � Some animal products from harvest). It includes: planting, weeding, � Household stocks have usually run poultry are also consumed (eggs harvesting & canal digging. Other out 1-2 months prior to the and meat) types of work include portaging, availability of green maize, in � Sugar, oil, meat, milk, whey, fish guarding, broking and herding. June. In this period frequency and and fruits are purchased to vary � Crops provide about half of income, size of meals may be reduced diet most of it from the non-cereal types while food is purchased. � Cereals comprise the remainder of (especially sesame and cowpeas) � Agricultural inputs include tractor food needs, which are all � Self-employment includes the hiring, irrigation and insecticides purchased. During the dry season. collection & selling of fish, wild foods, and seeds. firewood, and water. Baskets, stools & � Social services are few and pots are also made expensive; the primary ones are � Fodder and animal (poultry) product Koranic schools and health sales add a little as well. services.

SEASONAL CALENDAR RISK FACTORS APRIL Collection and sale of fish and wild foods ? Flooding represents the biggest Gathering and sale of firewood ‘disaster’ risk fodder and water Peak season for ghee ? Cost of agric. inputs (e.g. fuel) Livestock brought close Livestock taken out towards Bay ? Low river levels can bring to river: fodder sales Region problems JILAAL GU ? Influx of people (compete for Move to urban Long dry Heavy & Peak in agricultural labour market) & livestock centres/Mogadishu to season in most labour opportunities (compete for land) seek labour plateau important rain season Increase in Meat prices JANUARY JULY COPING STRATEGIES DEYR HAGAY Increase in milk availability Light rains Main dry season and a decrease in ghee Livestock migrate in from ? Fodder is an important income source in a Bay Region: fodder sales bad year. High cereal and sugar purchase ? Fishes, wild foods, bananas and mangoes Livestock moved Collection of construction are all seasonally abundant, as food and towards Bay region materials income opportunities. OCTOBER ? Labour opportunities are fairly good due Some canal digging labour Highest threat of to the commercialised nature of this area. flooding ? Off-season opportunities –people move to the urban centres, including Mogadishu.

Food Security Assessment Unit

Time Line Event Production 1990 year # BAYDHABA GARBAHAREY #

# JOWHAR 1991 Bad year Conflict, civil war MOGADISHU # 1992 Bad year MERKA Heavy displace Poor agriculture BUAALE ment, insecurity # and looting 1993 Poor year Insecurity and Poor agricultural UNOSOM II production

1994 Above normal Insecurity year # Rehabilitation of Good Gu; KISMAYO primary canals Bad Deyr Region Reg. Pop Reg.FEG total FEG as % of Reg. Pop 1995 Normal year 619,920 354852 57% L.Shabelle IDPs from Bay Normal Gu Total 619,920 354852 region. UNOSOM production Source: POPULATION; UNDOS, 1998 leaves 1996 Poor year Drought. Unusual Below normal Gu; livestock migration very poor Deyr High maize prices Description of FEG in Deyr season 1997 Mixed year ? This group extends from the coastline inland up to a distance of 20-40 kms from the river. The population of this El Nino Deyr rains Above normal Gu FEG practice both rainfed and irrigated cultivation and are distinct from the riverine FEG who practice only irrigated and river floods. production. Floods cultivation, live within 5-8 kms of the river, and have few/no livestock Banana industry in Deyr ? Severe damage has occurred to the irrigation infrastructure during and after the civil unrest – as a result of looting, devastated very heavy rainfall and flooding 1998 Mixed year ? Management and control of remaining key irrigation water flow points lies with militia, who charge for operations Serious floods on Good livestock th conditions. Poor ? Significant areas under commercial farming (e.g. bananas) are now used by small-holder farmers, growing cereals, June 24 Gu. Good Deyr and or lie fallow off-season productn ? Ownership of land in this and the riverine areas is hotly contested and extremely politically sensitive 1999 Good year ? The major crops grown are maize, cowpeas, sesame, vegetables, bananas, citrus fruits and sorghum Heavy influx of Good Gu and Deyr ? Cattle are the dominant livestock type of this group (suruqa, dawara and gasara varieties) livestock from ? This agro-pastoral group comprise the majority population of the following districts: Brava, Sablale, Kurtonwarey, drought affected Koriole, Merka (and Afgoi?) areas ? The agricultural potential and variety of agricultural activities in this area (rainfed and irrigated) make it an 2000 Gu – variable Late river cresting important host area for seasonal and vulnerable populations from Bay (Burhakaba in particular), in normal and bad Pockets of crop failure in Qorioley, and late rains. years Brava and Kurton Overall, above ? This area also has the advantage of 3 cropping seasons, the hagai showers season, in between the main Gu and Deyr warey, due to con normal harvest seasons – this maintains water and pasture conditions for longer flict and poor rains ?

Wealth Breakdown Normal Year Definition: Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated. Terms of trade are: -After harvest: 1l milk = 1-1.5kg maize -Jilaal: 1l milk = 1.5-2kg maize

In normal years in the rainy seasons Poor Middle Better off cattle move towards Bay or coastal 20-25% 40-60% 20-35% areas, and away from the busy fields.

In Jilaal and Hagay seasons, cattle Wealth Group Characteristic: gather in the fields.

Poor 25-35% Middle 40-55% Better off 5-15% Labour is available in the agricultural HH size 5-7 HH size 6-10 HH size 8-12 seasons, attracting people from other Ha land 0.5-1.5 Ha land 1-5 Ha land 3-10 regions. Cattle 0-10 Cattle 10-40 Cattle 20-60 Shoats 0-10 Shoats 0-50 Shoats 10-60 Very poor 5-15%

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

Animal products Livestock & Non-food essentials 0-15% Own products livestock products Purchase 65-80% 0-20% 10-20% 10-20% Other needs 5-25%

Food 60-80% Self/employment 45-65%

� Food needs from own cereals – maize & or � 45-65% of annual income is gained from � 60-80% of expenditure on food sorghum & pulses employment (esp. ag labour) & self-employment � 10-20% on clothes, kerosene, water & soap � Food needs from the purchase of cereals, (esp. collection & sale of bush products) activities � 5-25% on schooling, drugs, ag inputs sugar, oil, meat and milk opportunities � 0-15% from animal products � 0-20% of income from sale of livestock & livestock products

MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

Animal Livestock & Non-food products Own production livestock products essentials Purchase 10-25% 60-80% Sale of own crops 20-35% 20-30% 10-20% 40-50% Food 40-50%

Self/ employment 20-40% Other needs 25-35%

� 60-80% of annual food needs from own � 40-50% of income is from sale of own crops; � 40-50% of expenditure on food production of maize & or sorghum & pulses maize, sorghum, sesame, cowpeas, vegetables � 20-30% of expenditure on non-food essentials � 10-25% from animal products; milk, meat, ghee � 20-35% of income from the sale of livestock & – clothes, kerosene, water, soap, fuel � 10-20% from purchase of cereals, sugar, oil, livestock products � 25-35% on non-essentials including meat and milk � 20-40% of income from employment & self- schooling, drugs and land preparation employment activities

Collection of building materials SEASONAL CALENDAR & construction of huts & water catchment Wild fruits available RISK FACTORS APRIL ? in labour from Bay region especially Burhakaba ? High influx of people Consumption & sale of ghee & animals Collection/sale of grass & Rainfed & irrigated land preparation ? Flooding/irrigation fodder – from riverine areas High milk production but low infrastructure market access ? Costs/availability of inputs Increased livestock sales JILAAL GU Livestock taken to distant grazing areas ? Conflict over land Livestock brought closer to river Main dry Main rainy Cereal harvest season (long, season Firewood collection & sale hot & dry) High cereal & sugar purchase Charcoal making COPING STRATEGIES Consumption of JANUARY JULY green maize High cereal & sugar purchase DEYR HAGAY - Self-employment, especially fodder sales and other Short rains Windy, dry Harvest. Poor sell own bush products can be increased in a bad year season, with crops at low prices for - Seasonal availability of bananas, mangoes & job coastal showers debt repayment opportunities Ghee production - Year round availability of cheap bananas Sesame cultivation Highest milk availability- - Sweet potatoes in Koriole, K-Warey and Merca Agricultural labour opportunities livestock in nearby fields - Increased livestock sales - Consumption of wild foods (water lilies) Irrigated land preparation OCTOBER - Intra-community support/credit, of food, seeds

Food Security Assessment Unit

Time Line Map of Food Economy Group & Population Figures Event Production 1990 year # CALUU LA

KANDALA # 1991 Good year BOSSASO BARGAAL #Y # IDPs pouring into the Rainfall was very region: lobster harvest good shipwrecked

1992 Normal year XAAFUUN Civil war and people Rainfall was ISKUSHU BAN # # displaced normal 1993 Bad year UNISOM. Failure of Very low rainfall livestock and BANDER BEYLA frankincense market QARDHO # # Region Reg. Pop Reg. FEG FEG as % of 1994 Good year total Reg. Pop Livestock sale was Rainfall was good Bari 266,450 good; frankincense Total 266,450 sale was good Dan Gorayo Source: population WHO 2002 1995 Normal year # Livestock sell normal; Rainfall was N frankincense sale normal normal 0 25 50 75 100

Kilometers 1996 Below normal livestock sale was year below normal to Rainfall was below normal normal

Description of FEG 1997 Normal year ? The FEG is found in an area stretching from the village of Turmasaale in Kandala district on the west to the Frankincense sale was Rainfall was Taageer village of Iskushuban on the east, El gal village of Kandala on the North and Timirshe on the south. good normal ? The area is characterised by rugged terrain and skyline mountain ranges. The topography is mainly undulating with highly eroded hills, barren mountain peaks, shoulders, ridges, saddles and valleys. The vegetation is scarce 1998 Below Normal and less diversified, it consists of evergreen trees, shrubs and acia trees along the banks of the river. Livestock Ban year ? The gagaab pastoral frankincense population, 90% belong to Kandala district and 10% from Iskushuban. Rainfall was below

? The FEG’s herd composition is 30% sheep and 70% goat. Camel herds are extremely rare. A few camel herds can normal be found in Unuun and El-gal villages because there is more grass and trees for browsing in these villages than in 1999 Good year other parts of the FEG. Livestock sell was High rainfall high; the price of ? In Gagaab the only permanent water sources are located in El-gal village with shallow wells and a borehole; in frankincense was very Buq-Atoti, 15km south of El-gal there is a spring flowing round the year. good ? Main sources of income are sale of livestock and livestock product, frankincense and employment related to frankincense production such as harvesting, cleaning and collecting resins; self employment such as petty trading, 2000 Bad year remittances from the urban centers such as Bosasso and from the diaspora. Livestock Ban Low rainfall. ?

Wealth Breakdown Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated. Normal Year Definition:

The average normal rainfall is 300 400mm per year.

Very Poor Poor Middle Better off Rich 12% 16% 23% 43% 6% Wealth Group Characteristic Very Poor Poor Middle Better off HH size 5-7 HH size 5-7 HH size 6-8 HH size 7-9 25 - 30 shoats 45 - 55 shoats 90 - 110 shoats 150 - 250 shoats 1 donkey 1 donkey 1 camel 1 - 2 camel 50kg frankincense land 100kg frankincense land 1 donkey 400kg frankincense land Annual income: $ Annual income: $ 200kg frankincense land Annual income: $ Annual income: $

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

Own Koranic Clothes Employme Others Productio 5% 10% Gift n nt 3% 8% 10% 25% Field rent 7% Frankince Vet drugs Livestock Food nse & 13% 67% 62% medicine Purchase Water 82% 3% 5%

� Own production consists of milk and meat � The bulk of their income comes from sales of � Most of the expenditure is on food (rice, wheat � The poor WG purchase foods like rice, wheat frankincense (maydi, beeyo, other resins) flour, sugar, oil, tea leaves and salt) flour, sugar and oil � Employment is mainly labour in the � The balance is spent on vet drugs, medicine, � Gifts consists of 100kg of rice frankincense fields water, koranic school, field rent and clothes � The sales consists of 5 export quality goats and skins

MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

Ow n Field rent Koranic productio Livestock Water 9% 3% n 25% 7% 18% Vet drugs & Medicine Frankinc Food 3% Purchase ense 67% 82% 75% Clothes 11%

� The middle WG consume mainly purchase � About three quarters of their income comes � More than half of the middle WG expenditure food, the rest comes from own production from sale of frankincense (maydi, beeyo) is on food (rice, wheat flour, sugar, oil, sauce, which consists of meat and milk � The other source of middle WG income is sale tea leaves, salt) � of livestock (export and local quality shoats) � The rest is on non-food items such as clothes, and skins medicine and vet drugs, water, field rent and koranic school

SEASONAL CALENDAR No rainfall, increase in water demand RISK FACTORS Low sales frankincense and low prices ? High input prices – fuel, ? Frankincense related APRIL High demand of frankincense spare parts employment and high prices ? Flooding/low river level ?Frankincense related employment ? Livestock sales ? reproduction ? Crop pests and diseases ? Reduced marketing opps ? Livestock sales ? reproduction ? Indebtedness ? Milk production and ? JILAAL GU ?giving of gifts ? Insecurity sugar consumption Main dry Main rainy season (long, season Very low credit ? port activities hot and dry) ? Milk production and moderate sugar consumed ? Credit COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Increase in maize prices DEYR HAGAAY Bulk of maize harvest prior to harvest Short rains Decrease in maize prices Cool Dry - More seeking of credit facilities – especially by Pot making and small season ?Frankincense related skill handicraft middle and better-off. employment - Increased remittances, by non-Bantu and upper Planting & weeding Consumption of maize and middle and better-off groups. cowpea - Poor will look for work on other farms (crop Harvest of sesame shareholding, labouring) High demand of - Increased self-employment (bush products, Low sales frankincense and low frankincense and high prices charcoal, firewood) prices OCTOBER -Increased collection of wild foods and fishing

Food Security Assessment Unit Time Line Map of Food Economy Group & Population Figures Event Production 1990 Normal year Collapse of Siad Normal livestock Barre’s regime and and crop many refugees. production. BOSSASO # 1991 Bad year CEE # R I G AAB O Somaliland Poor Deyr rain and declared Republic minimal crop and

BO# R O M A livestock product. 1992 Bad year HA# RGEYSA B#URC O No events that Very poor rains and effected agro production. pastoralists. LAS C AA NOO D # GAROOWE # 1993 Normal year UNOSOM Good Gu rains and International normal production. intervention.

1994 Normal year Region Total Pop. Total pop. per FEZ pop. as % No major events.

in region FEZ in each of regional region pop. 1995 Normal year Togdheer 324,465 15319 5% Inter-clan conflict Source:POPULATION WHO 2001 in Burao and Sheikh. 1996 Bad year Clans peace Poor Gu rain agreement leading to bad crop succeeded. and livestock Description of FEG production. ? This agro-pastoral area lies at the foothills of the Golis mountains and benefits from run-off water – the run-off 1997 Very good year water supplements the rainfed conditions. President Egal was Gu below normal., ? Livestock ownership is very mixed and income opportunities are varied – diversified economy. re-elected. excellent El Nino Deyr rains. ? This has traditionally been a very good grazing area with only small pockets of land being cultivated. 1998 Below normal ? Many voluntary returnees from Ethiopia returned in 1997 and 1998, after peace was restored. Many returnees came Livestock ban year back with new agricultural skills. declared. After Gu rains below ? Vegetable and livestock/livestock products sales are very important for this group; cereal cultivation is limited. effects of El Nino normal, Deyr poor. ? This FEG benefits from its proximity to Berbera port and Burao/Yirow market and the large livestock trade that is rains good st associated with both places - through fodder sales and various types of employment. throughout 1 half ? Nearby Burao town is a dynamic and rapidly expanding centre, offering employment possibilities. of year. ? Livestock rearing conditions are good with mountains nearby, offering (limited) dry season water and pasture. 1999 Poor year Livestock trade ban Gu poor and Deyr ? Remittances from the diaspora are an important support and component of this economy. lifted, effectively in poor for crops and ? There are many inter-marriages between the urban and the agro-pastoral FEGs, strengthening their ties and therefore March. livestock. the support and opportunities they can give each other. 2000 Gu below normal ? Enclosing of rangeland by this FEG is causing problems and conflict with pastoralists. Livestock ban re rains. ? 80% of shoats owned are goats. imposed – ? The timing of Ramadan and the Haj are very important for determining the peak livestock demand/export time. September.

Wealth Breakdown Normal Year Definition: Wealth is measured by amount of land cultivated. 1993 and 1994 were considered normal years

Normal year Terms of Trade: 1 export quality goat = 1 sack (50kg) rice 1 export quality goat in Haj = 60kg rice Poor Middle Better off 1 local quality goat = 25 kg rice 20-25% 40-60% 20-35% 1 local quality goat = 50 kg maize 1 lt milk (any animal) = 2,500 Wealth Group Characteristic: 3,000Sh Poor 20-25% Middle 40-50% Better off (15-20 HH size 6-7 HH size 6-8 HH size 7-9 Sorghum yield = 0.8 MT/Ha ha. land 2-3 ha. land 4-6 ha. land 8-12 Households keep some milking cattle 1-2 camels 0-1 cattle 4-5 camels 3-4 cattle 10-15 camels 5-6 animals and send remaining to their shoats 20-25 donkeys 1 shoats 40-45 donkeys 2 shoats 80-100 donkeys 2-3 pastoral relatives in the Hawd area Annual income: $ ????? Annual income: $????? Annual income: $?????

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $1200-1400

Livestock Gifts Livestock products 10% Own products products Balance Non-food 0-5% 30-40% 20-25% Employment 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% Agri inputs Non 5-10% essential Agricultural food items Purchase products 0-10% 50-60% 20-30% Vet drugs Food items Livestock sales 10-15% 0-5% 40-45%

� Livestock products include milk production � Livestock sales for the year consist of 2 goats and � A relatively lesser proportion of income is from 6 goats producing 0.7 litres for 120 days = one ox. normally spent on food, indicating a relatively 504 litres and one cow producing 2 litres for 180 � Livestock sales include milk & skins. wealthy FEG days = 360 litres. 70% of milk is sold & 30% is � Agricultural products include the sale of cereal and consumed. hay. � Food purchased consists of 337kg cereal, 228kg � The better off groups employ the poor to do � Daily Kcal consumption per person is estimated sugar, 77kg oil & 29kg meat. weeding, planting & harvesting. at 2,500 � Own production includes 600kg of cereal, � The poor group produces charcoal to generate pulses and vegetables supplementary income. � Gifts consist of 100kg of cereal. � The poor group receive no remittance. � Poor receive loans of milking cows from better off groups. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $2300-2500

Livestock Agricultural Remittance Employment Livestock sales Balance products production 10-15% 5-10% 10-20% Non 20-30% 20-30% essentials 15-20% Food 0-5% 40-50% Agri. inputs Purchase Agricultural 5-10% 50-60% Livestock products Products 30-35% 65-70% Vet drugs 0-5% Non-food 10-15%

� Livestock products include milk production from � Livestock sales for the year consist of 7 shoats, � A relatively lesser proportion of income is 23 shoats producing 0.7 litres for 120 days =1932 one ox, & one camel. normally spent on food, indicating a relatively litres and 2 cows producing 2 litres for 180 days = � Livestock sales include milk, ghee & skins. wealthy FEG 720 litres & 1 camel producing 900 litres. 50% of � Agricultural products include the sale of cereal milk is sold & the rest consumed. and hay. � Food purchased consists of 510kg cereal, 390kg � Remittance from relatives amounts to $180 per � Daily Kcal consumption per person is estimated sugar, & 106kg oil. year. at 2,800 � Own production includes 706kg of cereal, pulses � Employment (one family member) and vegetables � Gifts consist of 100kg of cereal.

High livestock sales & low SEASONAL CALENDAR prices. High meat consumption. Low milk yields APRIL High milk production/low Dry planting of short Lowland grazing RISK FACTORS Livestock grazing in cycle sorghum Land preparation ? Poor rains mountainous areas ? Flooding – from ? labour Camel diseases ? (in Sheikh) heavy rains Tick borne diseases in JILAAL GU ? Lack of cattle & shoats Peak season for Long dry Heavy & most milk/ghee developmental season in important rainy support High labour demand & high plateau season Completion of harvest. vegetable production – in Land preparation near mountainous areas COPING STRATEGIES JANUARY JULY Good vegetable production – DEYR HAGAU Short cycle harvest October to April Light rains Dry, windy Pasture ? Employment in livestock sector season ? labour Moderate milk yield in moderate ? Increased fodder sales if crop fails highland Grazing in foothills & mountains ? Increased remittances through strong connections to the diaspora Normal livestock sales – grazing in lowlands Low milk, high price. Meat availability ? Relatively diversified herd composition and economic normal.. Livestock sales and prices normal activities High labour demand ? Loans of milking animals are received by the poor Weeding & Harvesting, 2nd planting - sorghum OCTOBER harvesting ? Normal Kcal consumption is high and proportion of Long cycle harvest Very high vegetable production income spent on food relatively low, indicating that cutting back on consumption and expenditure are both possible coping means