www.-confidential.com 7 March 2003 Vol 44 No 5 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL II 3 NIGERIA I The battle in the states Outgunning the opposition Shaky administration and growing political violence threaten the The 36 state governors have proved a durable crowd. All but credibility of April’s national elections two of those elected in 1999 are to The political scene has been ominously quiet as several constitutional issues rumble. The most serious stand again for the same party in is whether the 18 April presidential election can be held within President ’s April’s elections. This continuity mandate. The defeated aspirant for the ruling party’s nomination, Alex Ekwueme, has launched a series doesn’t imply stability. Few of the governors expect an easy ride back of legal challenges to Obasanjo’s candidacy; the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) has to power. Some of the political approved only a fraction of the candidates for elections at local, state and national level (AC Vol 44 No 3). struggles are turning violent with Perhaps most damning, diplomatic sources described the electoral register compiled last September as the worst flashpoints in the Niger ‘about 50 per cent accurate’. The latest register, revamped in January, is said to be an improvement but Delta, Kwara and Niger in the has just under 67 million names on it. Given a median age of 15, that would give Nigeria a population and in the north. of well over 140 mn., compared to and calculations of under 130 mn. Expect to hear accusations of millions of missing names and millions more inserted to favour the ruling People’s NIGERIA III 3 Democratic Party (PDP). Obasanjo is set against tampering with the election schedule although his die-hard opponents believe Governorship race they can force the case through a combination of legal argument and political disruption on the ground. Our analysts reckon that 14 of the Much depends on the next two weeks. The electoral roll is open for verification for the next two weeks. 36 governors stand a strong Adjudicating on complaints about the roll and the candidates’ eligibility will sorely test the dour chance of re-election, with the Ambassador Abel Guobadia, who chairs INEC. His success may determine the credibility of the south-western AD keeping almost election. The Commission has been inadequately funded, and so is administratively chaotic, has poor all its states but with the PDP emerging as overall winner again. relations with the autonomous state electoral commissions and is liable to government pressure. Guobadia has had a bad press (Nigerian electoral commissioners always do) but he shows occasional sparks of independence, although it is not encouraging that he drives a government car. FRANCE/AFRICA 5 The killing of Harry Jacques is back The other big threat is communal violence, which has worsened sharply under Obasanjo’s presidency, The African summit was leaving more than 10,000 people dead since 1999. More targeted political violence is growing, also. The overshadowed by war talk: the hot latest victim, Marshall Harry, a veteran politician from oil-rich who had fallen out with war in Côte d’Ivoire and war plans State Governor , was shot dead at his home in the early hours of 5 March. Harry had for Iraq. President Chirac’s triumphal diplomacy seemed to been organising an election rally for the opposition presidential candidate, General Muhammadu secure the summit’s support for Buhari, in Rivers State on 8 March. The killing was carried out by a team of gunmen who injured nobody the Paris line on both issues – but else and took nothing from the premises. for how long? Last year, Obasanjo tried unsuccessfully to get a political violence bill through the National Assembly. It included the banning of private militias such as the Oodua People’s Congress in the south-west, or the 6 Bakassi Boys in eastern states such as Abia, where they started, and Anambra, where they have a stranglehold. The Bakassi Boys’ alleged connection with the murder last September of Barnabas Igwe, Poison and Chairman of the branch of the Nigerian Bar Association, caused outrage. Police either connive with the groups or are overwhelmed by them. Out-of-control militias carrying out political vendettas bankruptcy amid rising communal tensions are poisoning the climate for the elections. Yet there is no sign that the The arrest of ex-President Chiluba government plans to address the issue with the sort of anti-violence summit and monitoring system that on 66 counts of corruption will make helped to dampen tension ahead of ’s elections in 1994. many African leaders keener to hold on to their jobs. It might also Meanwhile, the election bandwagon rolls forward. The two generals and leading presidential split the ruling MMD which is candidates, Obasanjo and Buhari (AC Vol 44 No 3), have launched their campaigns to an apparently stumbling under President indifferent public. Last weekend, Buhari was in , the Catholic heartland, trying to persuade Igbos Mwanawasa’s leadership. that he was not the Islamist ogre that his opponents claimed. Obasanjo was in the mainly Muslim north- eastern city of , trying to shore up his failing support in the region. POINTERS 8 Obasanjo has had a spring in his step since winning re-nomination at the 3-5 January PDP convention (AC Vol 44 No 1). This came as a surprise after several challenges to his power last year that undermined Somalia, Sudan/ his standing, presumably a bid to persuade his party that he would be an electoral liability and that the winning candidate should come from elsewhere. Obasanjo’s fightback at the presidential primaries Iraq, Algeria & (unexpectedly boosted by his Vice-President, ) was the riposte to the party campaign Ethiopia against him. 7 March 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 5

Steadily worsening relations between Obasanjo’s presidency and ever. Civilian politics hasn’t produced the hoped-for improvements. the National Assembly culminated in the impeachment crisis last year, Its practitioners have proved in some cases to be as brutal and corrupt the ashes of which are still smouldering. There had been rumours of as their predecessors. Many of the good things that the an impeachment bid launched from the Senate last June but the main Obasanjo government has done – on human rights, accountability and explosion came in August, when substantial majorities in both houses military reform – have been overshadowed and compromised by the came up with a long list of impeachable charges. It was a sobering lack of material improvement in the grinding poverty faced by most experience for Obasanjo. Even his street-wise handlers in the presidency Nigerians. The ostentatious luxury enjoyed by civilian politicians and at Aso Rock hadn’t understood how much he had alienated legislators, their apparatchiks reinforces popular distaste for them. to the extent that most of his own party was ready to vote against him. Voters, and defeated politicians, will be far less tolerant of the type Initially, Obasanjo’s office dismissed the impeachment lobby as of electoral irregularities seen in the 1999 polls. Prospects for a free jokers. Then it quickly realised that a hard core of legislators had smelt and fair election do not look good. The biggest worry is that the abuses blood and would not be amenable to the usual mixture of inducement, will be so egregious that they spark widespread political violence – cajoling and threats. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, especially in the north. Omar Ghali Na’Abba, an ambitious young Kano politician and The last comparable elections were the federal and state elections of friend of former military leader Gen. , had been the prime August 1983. These were also a return match after the transition to mover in the impeachment and staked his career on its success. The civilian rule and polls in 1979. The issues raised then are familiar Senate President, , once regarded as an Obasanjo today: the use of incumbency to ensure re-election by hook or by stooge, then joined the campaign. crook; the shamelessness of the political class’s use of politics as a The impeachment motion charged Obasanjo with autocracy, gravy train; growing public horror at the arrogance and venality of incompetence and waste. The indictment was so comprehensive that many national and regional politicians. It took just four years of even if it didn’t win the necessary majorities in the House and Senate, civilian politics for Nigerians to rejoice when the military overthrew the process would have left him irretrievably damaged. Time was the Second Republic on 31 December 1983. pressing and the impeachment campaign was threatening to spill over That will not happen again. Few would rejoice if the military into preparations for the elections. returned to power and few believe it’s possible. That’s partly because of the discrediting of military rule under Gen. Sani Abacha and partly Republic under threat because international opinion has turned against military regimes and A compromise worked out by two former heads of state, Alhaji Shehu in 1999, the Organisation of African Unity resolved to exclude them. Shagari and , was drafted out of concern that the Those factors may not, though, be decisive in extremis. Some Nigerians impeachment threatened the republic. This reportedly included cite Pakistan’s military leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who has concessions on privatisation and revenue allocation. The 21 state skillfully used his country’s strategic position to win international, if governors from Obasanjo’s PDP, who had acted in concert and not national, legitimacy. One of the world’s biggest oil and gas sometimes against the President, played a backstairs role in ending the producers (much of it bought by the United States) with growing impeachment threat from the Assembly. Relations between the tensions between fundamentalist Christians and Muslims, Nigeria national legislators and state governors, themselves powerful regional also has strategic importance. executives, remain delicate. A number of pay-offs were suspected and little more was heard from the National Assembly after the early Painstaking and volatile November compromise. A military coup may no longer be the probable response to a disputed Another manoeuvre to undermine the President came from a group election, though a declaration of martial law by the winner remains an of elder statesmen called the Patriots, led by a veteran barrister, Chief option, given the volatility of politics in the states (see Nigeria II). In Rotimi Williams, and Igbo constitutional lawyer Ben Nwabueze, preparation for what it sees as its inevitable second term, the government both of whom hail from Obasanjo’s south-western Yoruba support is beginning to refine its tactics. Most important is its campaign base. Claiming to be motivated by concern about the dangers of an against corruption, which tries to convince voters and outsiders that Obasanjo second term, the Patriots called for a constitutional amendment it’s holding public servants to account but is also a way to fell for a single five-year term for the president. This was strongly and Obasanjo’s opponents within the ruling party and outside. successfully resisted by Aso Rock – although again the struggle The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences damaged Obasanjo’s public standing. It also helped his challengers for Commission, set up under Justice Mustapha Akanbi last year, the PDP nomination at the party congress and means that a substantial wasn’t taken seriously (earlier in Obasanjo’s government, some dissident wing of the party will not back his campaign: some remain legislators had demanded payments from the PDP to vote in favour of nominal PDP members and grumble threateningly, others crossed into an anti-corruption law). It has built up some respect after painstaking the Buhari camp with tales of intrigue and grand corruption, and others investigations and has examined complaints against the re-nominated joined one of the many small new parties which could damage governors. Of 21 PDP governors, only ’s Chinwoke Obasanjo in some of his regional battles. Mbadinuju had his nomination rejected by the PDP. All this presumes that the election will, in the words of the European All candidates have submitted their papers to INEC. There are 20 Union on Obasanjo’s 1999 electoral victory, ‘generally reflect the will candidates for president, although some of the 30 registered political of the people’. Then almost everyone wanted a consensus on the result parties didn’t make the deadline. Among late candidates joining the and to avoid months of legal wrangling: the main point of that poll was figures (Obasanjo, Buhari, Emeka Ojukwu) were to break the cycle of two decades of disastrous military rule. In fact, human rights lawyer and activist Gani Fawehinmi for the National many of the 1999 results were surrealistic: they were grudgingly Conscience Party; a popular evangelist, Reverend , for accepted on the basis that most people thought Obasanjo would have the Justice Party; and lawyer Tunji Braithwaite of the Nigeria beaten his rival in a fair vote. Advance Party. Nigerians are going into the 2003 elections more disillusioned than The candidacies of several governors in the PDP, the All Nigeria

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People’s Party and the Alliance for Democracy (AD) are under threat NIGER Lake Chad because petitioners have sent many colourful allegations of wrongdoing to INEC. Particularly in the spotlight are the AD Governor of Lagos , , and the PDP Governor of , James ZAMFARA JIGAWA YOBE BORNO KANO Ibori – both of whom are accused of benefiting from drug trafficking. KEBBI

Both have denied it. Four governors – from Ogun, Kogi, Taraba and BENIN BAUCHI Yobe States – are being challenged because they were briefly civilian governors in the Third Republic and the constitution forbids NIGER NIGERIA governors from serving more than two terms. Constitutional PLATEAU ADAMAWA KWARA Abuja deliberations on their cases have dragged on for more than a year. NASSARAWA OYO TARABA The order of the elections has finally been resolved. In 1979, 1993, EKITI OSUN KOGI and 1999, polling began with local government elections followed by BENUE OGUN ONDO CAMEROON assemblies and the federal assembly some days later, moving on EDO LAGOS ANAMBRA EBONYI to governors and president. In 1983, the presidential election came Party affiliations of state governors: ABIA CROSS first, followed by the governors in descending order, which favoured DELTA IMO RIVER People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 300 kilometres RIVERS AKWA Alliance for Democracy (AD) the incumbents. This year’s polls will start with the local elections, BAYELSA IBOM All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) building up to the gubernatorial and presidential polls. That is one less 150 miles cause for dispute, yet the much bigger problems of an inaccurate electoral register and political violence still threaten the process. 2003 Governorship race State Governor Party Under Chances for NIGERIA II investigation * reelection Abia PDP Yes Strong Adamawa Bonnie Haruna PDP Weak Akwa Ibom PDP Yes Even The battle in the states Anambra PDP Yes Weak Bauchi Adamu Muazu PDP Yes Even The ruling PDP’s grip on the state governors Bayelsa Diepreye AlamieyeseighaPDP Yes Weak is under attack from all sides Benue PDP Weak Nigeria’s 36 state governors have proved a durable crowd. All but two Borno ANPP Weak of those elected in 1999 are to stand again for the same party in April’s Cross River PDP Strong elections (AC Vol 43 No 25). All the state governors seem to have Delta PDP Strong negotiated a two-term agreement with the leadership of their respective Ebonyi PDP Even parties: the Alliance for Democracy, All Nigeria People’s Party and Edo PDP Yes Strong Ekiti Otunba Adeniyi Adebayo AD Strong People’s Democratic Party. Only Chinwoke Mbadinuju in Anambra Enugu PDP Yes Even State and Mala Kachalla in Borno seemed to have quarrelled badly Gombe Abubakar Hashidu ANPP Even enough, with the PDP and ANPP respectively, to have had their Imo PDP Even candidacies dismissed. Jigawa Ibrahim Saminu Turaki ANPP Weak This continuity doesn’t imply stability. Few of the governors expect Kaduna Ahmed PDP Yes Even an easy ride back to power and in more than half the states, bitter Kano PDP Yes Weak power-struggles have started. Moreover, in Kwara, Niger, Kano, Katsina Umaru Musa Yar’Adua PDP Even Kaduna, Enugu, Borno, Delta, Rivers, Lagos and Oyo states, political Kebbi ANPP Strong violence is rising and rival supporters and their militias have clashed. Kogi ANPP Even Kwara ANPP Weak Lagos Bola Tinubu AD Yes Even Roll up, roll up, big political prizes Nassarawa PDP Yes Weak After the presidency, the state governorships are the greatest political Niger Abdukadir Kure PDP Yes Weak if not economic prizes. Governorships are a major source of patronage Ogun AD Strong and a stepping stone to the presidency or party leadership. This is the Ondo AD Strong arena in which struggles between the periphery and centre are played Osun Adebisi Akande AD Strong out, especially in the ruling PDP, where the state governors looked set Oyo AD Strong to rebel against President Olusegun Obasanjo at the PDP convention Plateau PDP Weak in January and vote instead for Alex Ekwueme as their flagbearer. Rivers Peter Odili PDP Strong Sokoto ANPP Strong Obasanjo and his running mate, Atiku Abubakar, secured support Taraba Jolly Ngame PDP Strong from the 21 PDP state governors by a mix of promises and threats. Yobe Bukar Abba Ibrahim ANPP Strong Firstly, their own nominations as the PDP’s gubernatorial candidates Zamfara Ahmed Sani Yerima ANPP Yes Even went through unimpeded, although now several PDP governors are the subjects of investigation by the Independent Corrupt Practices and * Petition submitted to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC). Mbadinuju has been ruled out Related Offences Commission as PDP candidate in Anambra and more PDP incumbent governors could follow, including some of the more vocally anti-Obasanjo. national battle between General Obasanjo and his challenger, Gen. The toughest governorship contests will be in the north and Middle , who has to win several states to make inroads Belt, where 19 of the 36 states are located. They will also reflect the into Obasanjo’s support base. From Daura in the north- of

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Katsina (the home state of Vice-President Abubakar’s late political of victory had he not fallen out with campaign manager Suleiman mentor Yar’ Adua) Buhari believes he can win support Othman Hunkuyi, who has decamped from the PDP to the ANPP. form northerners frustrated with the Obasanjo govermment’s failure PDP strategists see Jigawa and the north-western as the to tackle the endemic poverty in the north. weakest links in the ANPP chain. Its grip on Jigawa may also be vulnerable because Governor Saminu Turaki, a computer enthusiast, ANPP ambitions is known as the ‘virtual governor’, accused of ruling the State by e- Buhari and the ANPP also hope to make big gains in the south-east, mail. His nomination on the ANPP ticket has been challenged by where the Igbo (the third biggest ethnic group) believe they have been , an Abacha minister. sidelined by Obasanjo’s government. As a walking embodiment of this, two Senate presidents (the third most powerful position in the The North-East system after the vice-presidency) from the south-east moved from Atiku Abubakar from Adamawa wields influence in the north-east. In tight political friendship with Obasanjo to vehement opposition. One, Borno, incumbent Mala Kachalla may win again but for the AD, is now Buhari’s running mate and the other, Anyim having quarrelled with the ANPP, on whose ticket he stood in 1999. Pius Anyim, helped to lead the attempt to impeach Obasanjo. He lost the governorship primaries to former mentor Modu Sheriff. His chances now are helped by the Shehu of Borno, Mustapha Umar The Middle Belt el Kanemi. Obasanjo launched his election campaign in in a bid to counter hostility to him and his government (particularly to the The South-South Minister of Defence, Gen. ) over the army’s Violence over resources, government boundaries and ethnic rivalries Zaki-Biam massacre in October 2001. All the victims were Tiv, the has scarred the and sharpened over the past decade. state’s main ethnic group. Obasanjo’s belated and qualified apology Clashes between the Urhobo and Itsekiri last month gripped the oil for the atrocities (launched in retaliation for a militia attack on federal town of Warri. Insiders claim Obasanjo has a secret deal with the soldiers) may not be enough to swing the vote for State Governor South-South governors over revenue distribution. The PDP should George Akume. The ANPP flagbearer is veteran Paul Unongo. hold most states in the Delta – unless the ANPP or AD can link the , where the Saraki family has been trying, on behalf of grassroots protests to their own agendas. Party rivalries may exacerbate the PDP, to unseat the governing ANPP’s Governor Mohammed the Delta’s fault-lines. The killing of Marshall Harry, Rivers State Lawal, has seen mounting violence. Over two years, there have been veteran politician and defector to the ANPP, was the campaign’s first clashes within the ANPP: one faction is led by the Governor, retired assassination. His old rival, Rivers Governor Peter Odili, is an Rear Admiral Lawal; the other is led by his erstwhile mentor, Olusola Obasanjo-loyalist and spoken of as a future presidential candidate. Saraki, the godfather of Kwara politics. Saraki, who has been behind every Kwara governor since 1979, lost control of the ANPP to Lawal The South-West last year. He defected in 2002 to the PDP and his son, , Obasanjo will win mass support in the presidential poll from his has been nominated as the state’s PDP governorship candidate. in the six south-western states but the PDP looks A proxy fight between national politicians is also brewing in Niger fragmented in the governorship polls. The cultural organisation that State. PDP Governor Abdukadir Kure champions the Sharia criminal backs the AD, Afenifere, argues that if the AD doesn’t put up a code and is at odds with Obasanjo over this. In the cat-and-mouse presidential candidate against Obasanjo, then his party, the PDP, game with Obasanjo, Kure also sides with former military leader Gen. should stand down its governorship candidates in the south-west. , whose home base is in Minna, the state capital. There’s no chance the PDP will accept that. Osun, home state of Bola So the presidency in Abuja wants to defeat Kure, the PDP candidate, Ige, the Attorney General murdered at Christmas 2001, is still a tinder- and is backing former Trade Minister Mustapha Bello, governorship box. Deputy Governor was impeached in December candidate of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP). and then joined several other defendants in the trial of Ige’s murderers. In Nassarawa, it was going to be a straight fight between Governor AD Governor Adebisi Akande is set for another big victory. Abdullahi Adamu and , the Senate’s former Deputy President. Abubakar won his senate seat on the PDP platform The South-East but has since moved to the National Development Party (NDP) Upsets for the PDP are likely in the Igbo-dominated south-east. The because of rivalry with Adamu. Adamu also faces investigation by the most serious challenge comes from the ANPP with its south-east vice- ICPC as well as the problem of the deep pockets of Abubakar: he was presidential candidate, Okadigbo. Igbo politicians are split almost Managing Director of the Nigerian National Corporation’s evenly between the PDP, ANPP and a host of minority parties such as pipeline company (NNPC) under Sani Abacha. Gen. ’s UNDP. The Igbo cultural organisation Ohaneze Ndigbo has proved much less effective than its Yoruba The North-West equivalent, Afenifere. Many activists in Kano support Sharia and resent what they see as Much hope was resting on the bid by veteran Igbo politician Obasanjo’s vendetta against the Abacha family. Kano’s PDP governor, Ekwueme to secure the PDP presidential nomination from Obasanjo. Rabiu Kwankwaso, is widely disliked. He’s challenged by the ANPP When that attempt failed, Igbo political ambitions splintered. Okadigbo flagbearer, Ibrahim Shakarau, as well as his former Accountant has benefited from Ekwueme’s failure as has the former secessionist General, Umar Dan Hassan, who is backed by former Governor leader Emeka Ojukwu, whose All Progressive Grand Alliance has . Kano pits Abuja and Kwankwaso against an organised huge rallies. Ojukwu’s strategists say that the APGA is alliance between the Abachas and Kano kingmakers led by Rimi. As trying to play the role in the south-east’s Igbo-speaking areas that the long as the ANPP can resolve its rifts, Shakarau will beat Kwankwaso. AD plays in the south-west. This may be important when it comes to In Kaduna, PDP Governor Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi has who votes for Obasanjo in the presidentials and for some of the shakier rehabilitated state buildings and services. He would have been assured PDP governors.

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rare state visit on 2 March. He was lucky. The visit had been planned FRANCE/AFRICA for many months but had it taken place six months earlier, he would have been damaged goods, reeling from his near defeat by far right Front National leader Jean-Marie le Pen. While Morocco’s King Mohammed VI and Algeria’s President Jacques is back did not manage a bilateral meeting in Paris, a France’s triumphal return to Africa is marred only new French diplomatic initiative may help to resolve the dispute over slightly by the tricky problems it faces there Western Sahara, which has hobbled North African relations for years. Paris remains very close to Rabat and hopes to consolidate its new It was an impressive turnout. Forty-two heads of state or government political profile in Algiers while also protecting Moroccan interests. braved the icy cold of Paris and its unlovely Porte Maillot conference A French diplomatic push on the disputed territory could even centre for the biennial Franco-African extravaganza. The festive complement the current efforts of the UN envoy, US former Secretary ambiance was somewhat overshadowed by the crisis in Côte d’Ivoire, of State James Baker. If Algeria could be persuaded to soften its despite furious French efforts to secure a peace deal before the tough line on Saharawi statehood, it would add to the pressure on the summit, but President Laurent Gbagbo wasn’t there to hear President Polisario Movement to compromise. Jacques Chirac explicitly condemn the death squads and threaten war On the domestic front, France has signalled it will pay lip service to crimes prosecutions (AC Vol 44 No 3). human rights concerns in Algeria but has ruled out support for the With a decisive presidential mandate coupled with a big Kabyle uprising. French relations with Morocco remain as warm as parliamentary majority, Chirac and his Foreign Minister Dominique ever, as illustrated not least by February’s publication by La Maison de Villepin see history beckoning, not to mention an open field in de la Poésie au Maroc of a book of De Villepin’s poems illustrated by Africa while Britain and the United States are busy in Iraq. Franco- the multi-talented Moroccan artist and lobbyist Mehdi Qotbi. British cooperation was renewed, not without some difficulty, at Chirac’s stand on Iraq has made him an international superstar, Chirac’s January summit with Premier Tony Blair in Le Touquet. especially in the Arab world, but it has implications for the Ivorian Overall relations then took a turn for the worse. conflict. The UN passed Resolution 1464 on 4 February, which France says it wants to use its presidency of the Group of Eight endorsed the Marcoussis and mandated French and West leading industrial nations this year to promote Africa and Chirac made African troops in Côte d’Ivoire to use force where necessary. However, a headline-grabbing speech condemning rich countries’ agricultural if France succeeds in blocking the US and British vote on Iraq, it is export subsidies, though if this was a policy U-turn, he did not appear unlikely to get a renewal in six months’ time. to have mentioned it to his Agriculture Minister. Rather than announcing an end to French subsidies, he said he would propose a The Paris-Pretoria axis multilateral initiative to the G8, which gives plenty of room for fudge. France is forging closer ties with South Africa’s President Thabo Even the title of the summit, ‘Africa and France, together in a new Mbeki, who sat appropriately at Chirac’s right hand at the summit’s partnership’ raised some eyebrows, especially with the cancellation of opening session. Strong opposition to war on Iraq has been expressed the Euro-African summit scheduled for Portugal in April. Some in South Africa and both states support engagement with ’s European diplomats wondered how exactly France’s new partnership President . France said it invited Mugabe – along might fit in with the New Partnership for Africa’s Development with the heads of every African country except Somalia and Western (Nepad) and indeed the Franco-British cooperation in Africa launched Sahara – in part because to leave him off the guest list would have at the Saint-Malo summit in 1998. De Villepin is known as a fan of meant a boycott by Southern African leaders. Paris is also aware that bilateral action but for all Chirac’s tough words on impunity, suspicion Mugabe is less of an issue within Africa than for the British press. lingers over the wisdom of letting France do as it will in Africa. The Paris-Pretoria axis is well supported by long-standing business Whatever the shortcomings of Gbagbo’s government (and of the ties, with cooperation between the two state-owned power utilities electoral process that brought it to power), France’s treatment of the Electricité de France and Eskom, and Framatome’s work on the Ivorian President sits uncomfortably with the Quai d’Orsay’s past Koeberg nuclear reactor, as well as plans by Pechiney to build an claims that it does not operate its foreign policy according to whom it aluminium smelter at the new Coega Industrial Development Zone does and doesn’t like (AC Vol 43 No 24). January’s Marcoussis peace near Port Elizabeth. It remains a somewhat bizarre alliance of African talks put not just the main rebel Mouvement Patriotique de la Côte anti-colonialists sharing common cause with French neo-colonialists d’Ivoire (MPCI) but the two far less disciplined western groups, the but suggests that South Africa is steering a more individual foreign Mouvement Populaire Ivoirien du Grand-Ouest and Mouvement pour policy course away from its traditional patrons. la Justice et la Paix, on an equal footing with the ruling party. They Less keen on France are Nigeria, which didn’t send a minister, also led the rebels to understand that they could expect the interior and Angola, which is still seething at revelations over the French role in defence portfolios in an interim government. The rebels came to Paris arms-for-oil deals, and Rwanda, whose President did to discuss forming a new government with interim Prime Minister not support the summit resolution backing the French position that Seydou Elimane Diarra, a process that is making little headway. ‘there is an alternative to war’ and echoing the view expressed by the A demonstration against La Françafrique on 20 February gathered African Union summit on 3 February. General Kagame complained a couple of thousand people cheerfully protesting against anything that it had not been adequately debated. Despite reconciliation with from France’s treatment of Gbagbo to the impunity enjoyed by long- France, he is determined to show that he is not in Chirac’s pocket. standing friends of the Elysée Palace, such as ’s President Liberian President Charles Taylor, who in the past has had good Gnassingbé Eyadéma and Congo-Brazzaville’s President Denis relations with Paris, was conspicuously absent. He may have been Sassou-Nguesso. preoccupied with events at home but we hear that intervened France’s stand against war with Iraq has transformed its international by drawing attention to the United Nations embargo on him. Taylor status. Chirac was greeted as a hero in Algiers when he arrived for a lost an ally at court when Chirac’s senior Africa advisor, Michel

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Dupuch, resigned last July for health reasons. One success for De Villepin’s engagement with Africa, ZAMBIA Madagascar’s Marc Ravalomanana, was making his first visit to France as President. His accession to the presidency had been eased when Paris decided to recognise him but his relations with the AU are still uncertain. While France paid for ten delegation members from Poison and bankruptcy each country, Central African Republic sent a remarkable 25, Arresting the former President sets a precedent including attendants for the first lady, Angèle Patassé. The Paris- and splits the ruling party based human rights movement, the Fédération Internationale des Droits de l’Homme, welcomed President Ange-Félix Patassé to Paris The arrest of former President on 24 February, to by bringing a war crimes case at the International Criminal Court face 66 charges of corruption, will make a lot of African leaders even against him, as well as Chadian former rebel Abdoulaye Miskine keener to hold on to their jobs. It could also split the governing and Congo-Kinshasa rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba. Movement for Multi-party Democracy. Chiluba is jointly charged Chirac paid tribute to the mediation and peacekeeping efforts of with seven others, including his confidant and ex-intelligence chief, regional bodies such as the Economic Community of West African Xavier Chungu, suspended Treasury Secretary David Diangamo States and the Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique and Chungu’s ex-deputy, Yogham Zuru. Chiluba was arrested after Centrale. CEMAC’s new peacekeeping force is deploying in CAR to the Supreme Court had decided, on 19 February, that the ex-President’s replace Libyan and Sudanese troops. Having lost patience with immunity from prosecution could be lifted. He is now out on bail of Patassé, France is resisting calls for military intervention and contenting K1.5 billion (US$3,400), his passport confiscated by the Court. itself with providing logistical support. The Libyan government, as a The legal arguments could continue indefinitely, outlasting President good Africanist these days and a big player in the Sahara region, was ’s five-year term of office, which ends in 2006. On represented by its dynamic Minister for African Affairs, Ali Tereiki. 28 February, Chiluba’s lawyers challenged the constitutionality of the charges before the High Court, arguing that the alleged offences were Handbagged committed in the course of Chiluba’s official duties as President. The A key indicator for the success of the CEMAC force is whether constitution says a former president whose immunity has been lifted Cameroon can be persuaded to punch its weight. President can stand trial only for acts committed in his private capacity. On 3 has always been very reticent about regional politics, though the size March, a magistrates’ court temporarily halted the case, pending the and geographical position of Cameroon imply that it should play a outcome of the High Court challenge. The courts are already overloaded stronger role. One interesting test will be how Yaounde votes in any and Chiluba’s cases are complicated and require a host of witnesses. UN Security Council vote on Iraq. After the Paris summit resolution, it was thought Biya would vote with Chirac. The other African UNSC MMD disarray members, Angola and , are less clear: they are more susceptible The MMD is in disarray. Some senior party officials, including its to US pressure, heavily applied. Whitehall is also busy: the astonishing Chairman Chitalu Sampa, have publicly declared their support for visit to all three countries by Africa Minister Valerie Amos (with, Chiluba. Some members of parliament from the MMD strongholds, according to a Foreign and Commonwealth Office source, a bulging Luapula and Northern provinces, plan to quit the party in solidarity handbag) at least ended speculation in Paris that President Lansana with Chiluba, complaining of ‘victimisation of Bembas’ by Conté was dead, since she trekked out to his village to meet him. Mwanawasa. His 8 February reshuffle fuelled this notion, as both the Congo-Kinshasa took up remarkably little summit time in Paris, in sacked Ministers were Bemba: Norman Chibamba from Community contrast to the 2001 gathering in Yaounde overshadowed by the death Development and Lupando Mwape from Transport and of President Laurent-Désiré Kabila. However, signalling France’s Communications. entry into another long-running conflict, Chirac used a bilateral The incensed Chiluba may now testify against his successor in the meeting to tell Sudan’s President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir ongoing presidential petition – last year’s bid by the main opposition that he had named Henri Benoît de Coignac, a former Ambassador party leaders to have the Supreme Court declare Mwanawasa’s to Ireland, as a special envoy to Sudan, where peace efforts so far December 2001 election victory invalid. This case, too, could drag on, have been led by Britain, the USA and Norway. The US appointed maybe for another year. Mwanawasa needs to produce his defence Senator John Danforth as its Special Envoy in September 2001. The against various allegations of vote rigging made in court (AC Vol 43 National Islamic Front government has pushed hard to involve Paris, No 22); his legal team threatens to prolong the case by calling over which it hopes to play off against Washington and London. 1,000 witnesses. Mwanawasa has said he will not call a snap election, The French activity on so many fronts suggests that the much despite damaging evidence against him. This gives him time to vaunted new relationship with Africa announced in 1994, when Paris improve his re-election chances by scuttling the opposition, a task he said it would no longer endlessly bail out its former colonies, had more has embarked upon with relish. to do with the lack of enthusiasm for the continent of the then Prime Encouraged by December’s electoral defeat of President Daniel Minister, Edouard Balladur, than any loss of love at Elysée level. arap Moi and his Kenya African National Union, Zambia’s five This was later compounded under Premier Lionel Jospin by reaction opposition parties have agreed to put up single candidates to challenge to France’s earlier Rwandan disaster. Though such familiar old faces the MMD in by-elections. Their alliance is not yet formalised, though, as former Ivorian protocol chief Georges Ouegnin were at the Paris and the strategy fell at the first hurdle when the sole alliance candidate, summit, with the arrival of a new generation of diplomats, many old Nevers Luambula of the United Party for National Development networks have lost their significance. If France still has as much (UPND), was soundly beaten by the MMD’s Ronnie Shikapwasha at enthusiasm for conflict after handling Côte d’Ivoire, there are plenty the Keembe by-election on 7 February. Shikapwasha commanded the more wars and areas of instability to be tackled before the next summit airforce until Chiluba removed him after the 1997 coup attempt and the in Mali in 2005. MMD’s sustained effort to get him elected included food distribution

6 7 March 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 5 on the eve of the poll. Mwanawasa, who is related to Shikapwasha, Local commentators criticise Mwanawasa for neglecting coalition contributed some ethnically enthusiastic election speeches. politics and cherry-picking the opposition. The President says he will The President’s deployment of state resources for the MMD at by- carry on until the opposition, and the UPND in particular, is no longer elections gives the opposition alliance little chance outside its constituent a threat. Patel, apparently troubled by the damage he has inflicted on parties’ strongholds. The alliance could crumble if the MMD scores the FDD and his own reputation, may be aiming for the Finance more easy victories, although it enjoys the support of that well known Ministry, currently occupied by Emmanuel Kasonde; if Kasonde is political strategist, Chiluba. Currently, he backs his ex-confidant, promoted to the vice-presidency by Mwanawasa, the new Commerce of the opposition . In 2001, Chiluba Minister is well placed to move over to Finance. Kasonde recently snubbed Sata and picked Mwanawasa as his successor. The Chiluba acted as President while Mwanawasa and Vice-President Enock factor in the alliance seems to involve bringing in a Bemba candidate Kavindele (who is old and has acute diabetes) were abroad. Replacing to dilute Mwanawasa’s support, mainly in the Bemba-dominated Kavindele by Kasonde would help Mwanawasa win back Bemba Northern and Luapula provinces. support. Anyway, Kasonde is close to Mwanawasa, who seems Another potential challenger to Mwanawasa within the MMD is ex- determined to keep him afloat politically. Foreign Minister Katele Kalumba, who says he wants to be president but is in detention for corruption and theft. The ‘Bemba factor’ also Anti-privatisation popularity affects the alliance because supporters of its strongest component, the Kasonde has become increasingly isolated in cabinet for championing UPND, worry that their leader, Anderson Mazoka, a Tonga, may not the MMD’s 2001 manifesto commitment to privatisation, a precondition have a political future if it remains in the alliance. for support from donors. In recent months Mwanawasa has turned On 10 February, Mwanawasa further disrupted the opposition against privatisation, especially of key assets – the energy parastatal parties by bringing some of their MPs into government via private Zesco, state-owned telecommunications service Zamtel and Zambia arrangements that excluded the party leaders. The new Commerce National Commercial Bank (Zanaco). Moreover, Kasonde had to Minister, Dipak Patel of the Forum for Democracy and Development revise his 2003 budget after it was rejected in parliament by his own (FDD), used to be one of Mwanawasa’s most effective critics; the sole party. MP for the Zambia Republican Party (ZRP), Sylvia Masebo, became Despite these setbacks he refuses to resign but holds on, presumably Local Government and Housing Minister. To spread the damage, hoping for the vice-presidency. It is also said that, if he left office, he Mwanawasa appointed deputy ministers from the Heritage Party (HP), would have difficulties servicing a substantial personal loan from the United National Independence Party (UNIP, former single party) and Development Bank of Zambia – and the donors like his pro-privatisation Mazoka’s more substantial UPND. stance. Mwanawasa’s latest line is to placate both donors and voters If Patel and the new HP and UPND ministers were expelled from by advocating that state companies should be run in joint partnership their parties, the consequence would be even more by-elections and with the private sector and by calling for renegotiation with some possible court actions, which can only hurt the opposition. Patel says donors. The trades unions warn the government that any form of he joined the government after his party leadership had initially agreed privatisation will be met by countrywide strikes. to accept the appointments. Yet the turnabout has lost him much of his Popular opposition to privatisation is high and the opposition political credibility and a by-election in his constituency could end his parties were mobilising against it until Mwanawasa moved on to their political career. Some say he jumped on Mwanawasa’s bandwagon ground. The President’s anti-privatisation shift may be popular at because most of his businesses had stopped making a profit. home but has gone down very badly with donors. The International Monetary Fund insists on a commitment to privatising Zesco, Zamtel Prison plots and Zanaco before agreeing a new poverty reduction and growth The courts have heard damning testimony from witnesses, including facility when the current one runs out in March (AC Vol 44 No 1). If former intelligence chief Chungu, confirming what was widely the Fund pulls out, so will other donors. Mwanawasa says there is suspected – that Mwanawasa’s campaign was illegally financed with room for further negotiation on privatisation and is demanding an state money and that some results were rigged. Chungu said in court explanation of why most companies that were sold have since closed he had used intelligence officers to rig the polls and mobilise state down. Yet in the end, the IMF’s demand for privatisation will funds for the campaign. A few days before he gave evidence, his probably prevail. Almost half the government’s revenue is due to prison food was poisoned by fellow inmates. This was said to be a plot come from donors this year. by the state security apparatus, foiled when he was tipped off by an intelligence contact. He alerted the prison authorities and his family Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com lodged a formal complaint. The police are investigating. Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at Police sources say that, a week after Chungu’s testimony, another 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, . plot was organised involving two prisoners, including Chungu’s cell- Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk mate. It is said that two fellow prisoners were given poison to put in and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. his food; money was paid to the family of one of the prisoners, who was Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa promised unconditional release as a reward for success. However, the Confidential in advance: prisoner told Chungu of the plot and he told the police, whose Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 laboratory found the substance highly toxic. Preliminary investigations Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 are said to indicate Mukutulu Sinyani, head of the Drug Enforcement African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 Commission (DEC), as chief plotter; in a press release, Sinyani said All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept Chungu had invented the story. Three prisoners then confirmed the American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 plot and named the agents who had tried to recruit them. The security 1FH England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 apparatus is in turmoil and Sinyani is said to have walked out of a joint Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. security meeting when the poison plot was mentioned. ISSN 0044-6483

7 7 March 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 5

standards. The Union Générale des Travailleurs Pointers SUDAN/IRAQ Algériens Secretary General, Mohammed Sidi Saïd, displayed his growing power: after wildcat strikes outside UGTA control, he took on the SOMALIA Bum steer government, calling a general strike late last month. The National Islamic Front government aims to World Bank ex-official Khelil’s closeness to persuade the West it holds the smoking gun on Boutef was thought to insulate him from competing Playing by the rules Iraq, we hear. To attack President Saddam clans in government (AC Vol 44 No 1). But he has After ten years of neglect, the United Nations Hussein, the United States and Britain fallen foul of an alliance of politicians and trades arms embargo on Somalia is finally seeing action. desperately seek a substantive link between his unions under Sidi Saïd, whose networks stretch The embargo was introduced in January 1992 but secular Baathist regime and Al Qaida, anti-secular from shop-floor to military power-brokers. He only last year did the UN attempt to give it force, to the death. The NIF, with links to both, wants to and petroleum workers’ leader Mohamed by appointing a panel of experts. Ernst Jan give Washington and London what they want, Lakhdar Badreddine have forced Khelil’s law Hogendoorn (Netherlands), Brynjulf Mugaas presenting Hassan el Turabi as holding the secrets off parliament’s agenda; they have support from (Norway) and Mohamed Abdoulaye M’Backe of a Qaida-Iraq axis. senior officers and Premier Ali Benflis, who (Senegal) completed their investigation last month, The purpose would be threefold: to reinforce opposes one of his own government’s key policies. having visited over 20 countries, and started Khartoum’s flagging ‘cooperation on terrorism’ Benflis is now a political force, having led the consultations about their findings on 27 February so valuable in staving off US attacks; to polish the revived Front de Libération Nationale to sweeping at the UN Secretariat in New York, with the myth (Egypt’s favourite) that Turabi is out of wins in 2002’s local and parliamentary polls. He Security Council Committee chaired by Bulgarian power, while those who are in have abandoned his may challenge Boutef before 2004’s vote but he Ambassador Stefan Tafrov. The report is not yet extremism; to help trigger a war which helps also faces challenges: difficult preparations for a public but Africa Confidential has seen a copy that Islamists, by toppling Saddam, destabilising the rare FLN congress are under way. documents a clear pattern of violation. area and enflaming anti-Western feeling among Boutef may well stand again: this will need The report says neighbouring states have uncounted Islamist recruits. complex deals. Powerful people are battling it out regularly given arms, equipment, militia training But a long and presumably forensic Western in private. Boutef’s rivals could well defeat both and financial support to Somali factions. Ethiopia, search has failed to produce a link of substance Khelil and his energy bill, till a new deal is forged Eritrea, Yemen, Djibouti, Sudan and Egypt are between Qaida and Saddam – hardly surprising for the elite. But who will be the elite’s presidential all said to have violated the embargo over the last since they have opposing interests. Islamists have candidate? It is still for Boutef to lose. decade. In its annex, the report attaches several been Saddam’s biggest internal threat. Interviews Djiboutian end-user certificates it found had been with Iraqi oppositionists make it clear they want ETHIOPIA on the black market in 2002. One was used by a the USA to overthrow Saddam then get out, leaving person the panel identified as likely to be from a the aftermath for them to sort out. Somali faction, who tried to buy weapons in Any information from the NIF would be near Royal echoes Bulgaria but was refused by Sofia. impossible to verify. As with all relations with The last Ethiopian leader to visit Britain was The panel also investigated Somalia’s arms Usama bin Laden, any proffered link to Iraq in 1972. Last month, Premier markets and found it easy to obtain an assortment would have to involve not only Turabi but also his also laid a wreath on the grave of of military ammunition and a range of weapons chief , the visible face of the ruling a nineteenth-century Ethiopian prince in the British including: a ZSU-23mm. truck-mounted anti- NIF. The real unholy alliance may link the NIF royal town of Windsor. Haile Selassie’s trip aircraft artillery gun for US$50,000 or a bargain and George Bush’s government: a ‘proven’ link coincided with a disastrous Ethiopian famine; two ‘Abdi Bile’ jeep (named after the Somali runner) between Saddam and Qaida would suit both. years later he was overthrown. Today, up to 14 with mounted machine gun for $15,000. An AK- million Ethiopians need food aid. 47 assault rifle sold for $120-$250. ALGERIA Meles was warmly welcomed by the Prime The panel did not find that international terrorist Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer, and the groups have used Somalia as a haven. Although Foreign and Development secretaries. He spoke the Somali Islamic group Al Itahad al Islami Minister in peril at the Chatham House think-tank on the New continues to operate in Somalia, it appears to have President Abdelaziz Bouteflika basks in the glow Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development, a largely local agenda and few formal links with of an unprecedented visit from French President for which, unlike most African leaders, he visibly Al Qaida, the report says. The experts recommend Jacques Chirac, welcomed as a hero on 2-4 shares an enthusiasm with his British counterpart, further investigation and targeted secondary March after his standoff with the United States Tony Blair. sanctions, including financial restrictions, a travel over Iraq. Meanwhile, Boutef’s friend and high- Human rights were raised by demonstrators ban, and diplomatic sanctions. With Iraq profile Energy and Mines Minister, Chakib Khelil, outside Chatham House and in official talks but dominating Security Council thinking, most looked a lame duck, even as one of Chirac’s blue- Britain’s main concern was the peace deal with members appear keen to enforce the sanctions. chip business companions, TotalFinaElf boss Eritrea. Addis Ababa, while insisting it won’t go At the Somali peace conference at Mbagathi, Thierry Desmarest, said he might invest up to back to war, claims the Boundary Commission is near Nairobi, a commission has been set up to US$1 billion in Algeria. not doing its job. Meles might not survive if monitor the poorly respected October ceasefire. Khelil’s ambitious but delayed hydrocarbons Badme, centre of the 1998-2000 war, were handed Despite a surfeit of delegates and disputes over the bill is a central plank of Algerian economic reform; to Eritrea, whose President Issayas Aferworki, representation of subclans, Kenyan mediator it would put national oil company Sonatrach on a equally set on the town, has offered bases to the Bethwel Kiplagat has resolved to settle the matter more commercial basis and encourage private United States – which declines to accept them through traditional Somali inter-clan mediation, investment in strategic sectors. But it is embroiled because two US Embassy local employees have rather than trying to untangle the disputes himself. in elite infighting and popular protest over living been detained without charge since 2001.

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