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Strategic Discourse on the People's Republic of China Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China Military, Power and Politics Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China Military, Power and Politics Edited by Lt Gen Gautam Banerjee Foreword by Gen NC Vij, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM Director, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi Vivekananda International Foundation New Delhi PENTAGON PRESS Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China: Military, Power and Politics Editor: Lt Gen Gautam Banerjee Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-933-7 First Published in 2017 Copyright © RESERVED All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Publisher. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the book are the individual assertion of the Authors. The Publisher does not take any responsibility for the same in any manner whatsoever. The same shall solely be the responsibility of the Authors. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Foreword vii Preface ix Contributors xi 1. India–China Relations: Problems and Prospects 1 Kanwal Sibal 2. Have the Chinese Core Interests Increased? 24 Ashish Sirsikar 3. Understanding the Chinese One-Belt-One-Road 40 Prabhat Prakash Shukla 4. China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Old String with New Pearls? 63 Gopal Suri 5. The Communist Party-Army Equation in China 93 Gautam Banerjee 6. China’s Defence White Paper, 2013: The Assertions of a ‘Superpower’ in the Making? 110 Gautam Banerjee 7. Trends in Chinese Military Modernisation: Implications and Responses 130 Vinod Anand 8. Growing Muscle of the PLAAF 159 V.K. Saxena vi Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China 9. Consecration of China’s ‘New Period’ People’s Liberation Army 175 Gautam Banerjee 10. Chinese Quest for Space Supremacy: Implications for India and the World 193 Radhakrishna Rao 11 China’s Geography: A Boon or Bane? 209 Ashish Sirsikar Index 241 Foreword China’s nearly three decade long march to superpower status has ever been an interesting object of study and analysis among the China- watchers as well as the strategic community in India and abroad. That interest is a corollary to China’s rise in the global economic equation and its traditional propensity to back up its regional ambitions with hard diplomacy, economic allurements and finally, military power. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) today is a global player, an influential one at that, its outreach second only to the superpower, the United States of America. It is India’s great neighbour, and a powerful one at that. But regrettably, the PRC carries an innate wariness of India, viewing the latter as a challenge to its regional hegemony. It therefore needs no emphasis that every diplomatic, economic or strategic step that the PRC takes, assumes significance in India’s context. We, the scholars, analysts and mentors at the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi, are committed to understanding China’s ambitions, compulsions and misgivings, and do our bit to assuage the perceptive differences. To that end, the VIF undertakes wide-ranging studies and analyses of various facets of endeavours that the PRC is intent on and publishes objective papers for the strategic community to peruse. This Book, Perspectives on the People’s Republic of China is a compilation of some of the notable papers authored by eminent scholars of the VIF, its purpose being to bring these analyses to the readership viii Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China in one compact volume. I am sanguine that the effort put in by us would be of value to the readers. New Delhi (General N C Vij), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM (Retd) March 2017 Director, VIF, Former Chief of the Army Staff & Founder Vice Chairman, NDMA Preamble Notwithstanding the centuries old religious and cultural relationships, India and China have never really been geographical neighbours. On ground and in all intents and purposes, that situation actually prevailed in the Indo-Tibet context, till the People’s Republic of China (PRC) asserted its effective sovereignty over the entire Tibetan landscape and its hapless people. Thus within a span of just two years in the early 1950’s, China’s shadow of neighbourhood fell upon India. Regrettably, that shadow, instead of bringing solidarity, shattered the centuries of peace that the Himalayas had bestowed upon the Indian Sub- Continent. PRC is our great neighbour, and a great power much in excess of India’s not so inconsequential global status. It is ruled with a firm hand by its communist-autocratic regime which sets it own codes, exclusive norms of behaviour, brooks no opposition and is not shy of using force to have its way. That such a power finds in India a competitor and an obstacle to its regional hegemony is indeed a burden India must bear. The foremost endeavour in that context would be to know the Chinese strengths, vulnerabilities and aspirations, the purpose being to seek reconciliation with these, accommodate when possible and stand up when unacceptable. This book is a compilation of perceptions that noted China watchers have come to register from gestures, promulgations, publications and actions made by the PRC in the recent years. Obviously, due to limited visibility of PRC’s quests and intents, papers presented in this book had sometimes to be tinged with subjective analyses of known facts and informed inferences. x Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China It is hoped that the book would serve its purpose to propagate deeper understanding of our great neighbour. Jai Hind. March 2017 LT GEN GAUTAM BANERJEE, PVSM,AVSM,YSM (Retd) (Former Chief of Staff Central Command & Commandant, Officers’ Training Academy, Chennai) Member Executive Council & Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi Contributors Kanwal Sibal is India’s former Foreign Secretary. He has been India’s Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, Russia and France. He is the Dean of the Centre for International Relations and Diplomacy at the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi. Colonel Ashish Sirsikar is a Senior Research Fellow at the VIF. His areas of study encompass Chinese security perspectives and vision for the 21st Century with particular emphasis on the ongoing PLA modernisation. Prabhat Prakash Shukla is an Indian Foreign Service Officer and has served in diplomatic assignments in Brussels, London and Kathmandu and as the Indian ambassador to Russia. He was the Diplomatic Adviser to the Prime Minister from 1996 to 2000. He is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the VIF, New Delhi. Commodore Gopal Suri is a Senior Research Fellow at the VIF. His areas of study encompass the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific region. Lieutenant General Gautam Banerjee, PVSM, AVSM, YSM (Retd) is a former Chief of Staff, Central Command, and Commandant of the Officers’ Training Academy, Chennai. He is a Member of the Executive Council and a Distinguished Fellow at the VIF, New Delhi. Brigadier Vinod Anand (Retd) is a Senior Fellow at the VIF. He holds a post-graduate degree in Defence and Strategic Studies. Earlier, he has been a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, and at the United Service Institution, New Delhi. xii Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China Lt Gen (Dr) V K Saxena, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) is a former Director General of the Corps of Army Air Defence, and presently an Advisor to a leading DPSU. Shri Radhakrishna Rao has served with the ISRO for about twenty years. He has been writing extensively on issues concerning outer space, defence, aerospace, computers and communications. * 1 India–China Relations: Problems and Prospects Kanwal Sibal Rise of China: Challenge or Opportunity? China’s extraordinarily rapid rise in the hierarchy of global power is raising concerns about its future policies. The opinion is divided whether China will increasingly assert its power in disruptive ways or will act more responsibly as its own stakes in the international system grow. Arguments can be made for both views, though emerging signs suggest that China’s self-assertion is becoming an unpleasant reality, whereas the expectation that it will work for and within a global consensus remains more a matter of hope. A rising China presents both a threat and an opportunity. The dilemma for India, the US, Japan, the major European countries and others is how to find a balance between engaging China to build on the positives and constraining it to ward off the negatives. China’s economic and commercial expansion is making it a crucial country in global trade and financial flows. The opportunities provided by the huge and growing Chinese market cannot be ignored by governments and corporations. At the same time, with recession and unemployment in the Western countries, concerns about China’s mercantilist approach, its Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) violations and resort to unfair competition are growing. The accumulation of huge 2 Strategic Discourse on the People’s Republic of China foreign exchange reserves by China has led to demands by the West of financial re-balancing, revaluation of the Chinese currency and a shift in China’s export-led strategy towards the stimulation of domestic demand. At the same time, with the Eurozone in crisis, China is being wooed to invest in European securities to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis there. China’s growing military strength has been a natural fallout of its phenomenal economic growth in the last thirty years.
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