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Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia

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Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia SLOWDOWN IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia Justin Yifu Lin, Peter J. Morgan, and Guanghua Wan ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE SLOWDOWN IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia Edited by Justin Yi-fu Lin Peking University Peter J. Morgan Asian Development Bank Institute Guanghua Wan Institute of World Economy, Fudan University © 2018 Asian Development Bank Institute All rights reserved. Published in 2018. ISBN 978-4-89974-077-3 (Print) ISBN 978-4-89974-078-0 (PDF) The views in this publication do not necessarily refl ect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB’s Board or Governors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. ADBI uses proper ADB member names and abbreviations throughout and any variation or inaccuracy, including in citations and references, should be read as referring to the correct name. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “recognize,” “country,” or other geographical names in this publication, ADBI does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works without the express, written consent of ADBI. ADB refers to China by the name People’s Republic of China. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan www.adbi.org CONTENTS Figures and Tables v List of Contributors xii Abbreviations xiv Preface xv 1 Introduction 1 Justin Yifu Lin, Guanghua Wan, and Peter J. Morgan 2 Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to the People’s Republic of China 11 Robert J. Barro 3 Will the People’s Republic of China Be Able to Avoid the Japan Syndrome? 30 Yang Yao 4 The People’s Republic of China’s Slowdown: Lessons from Japan’s Experience and the Expected Impact on Japan’s Economy 61 Kyoji Fukao and Tangjun Yuan 5 The Republic of Korea’s Economic Growth and Catch-Up: Implications for the People’s Republic of China 96 Jong-Wha Lee iv Contents 6 On the Sustainability of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Model—A Productivity Perspective 143 Harry X. Wu 7 Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or A Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis 181 Chong–En Bai and Qiong Zhang 8 Factors Aff ecting the Outlook for Medium- to Long-term Growth in the People’s Republic of China 220 Justin Yifu Lin, Guanghua Wan, and Peter J. Morgan 9 Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis 250 Fan Zhai and Peter Morgan 10 Spatial Estimation of the Nexus between the People’s Republic of China’s Foreign Direct Investment and ASEAN’s Growth 281 Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama 11 Investigating How a Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China Aff ects Its Trading Partners and How Asia Can Mitigate the Impact 303 Willem Thorbecke 12 Estimating the Impact of Slower People’s Republic of China Growth on the Asia and the Pacifi c Region: A Global Vector Autoregression Model Approach 335 Tomoo Inoue, Demet Kaya, and Hitoshi Ohshige Index 374 FIGURES AND TABLES FIGURES 2.1 Cross-Country Dispersion of the Log of Real Per Capita GDP —25 countries, 1870–2010 25 2.2 Cross-Country Dispersion of the Log of Real Per Capita GDP —34 countries, 1896–2010 26 3.1 Japan’s Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates in Yen and Purchasing Power Parity 33 3.2 Japan’s Path from Infl ation to Defl ation 35 3.3 Prices of Japan’s Housing Market 36 3.4 Japan’s Stock Price Index 37 3.5 Current Account Balance and Exchange Rate in Japan 38 3.6 Impacts of Aging on Domestic Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Japan 41 3.7 People’s Republic of China’s Trade Surpluses and Offi cial Foreign Reserves 43 3.8 People’s Republic of China’s Nominal and Real Exchange Rates 43 3.9 People’s Republic of China’s Domestic Price Levels 44 3.10 Distributions of Income and Wealth by Age Cohorts (2012) 45 3.11 Actual and Rate of Return-adjusted Years of Schooling (2010) by Age 46 3.12 Regional Disparities in the People’s Republic of China 50 3.13 Japan’s Actual and Potential Growth Rates 54 3.14 People’s Republic of China’s Actual and Potential Growth Rates 55 4.1 PPP-based GDP per Capita: Major East Asian Countries and the United States 65 4.2 Capital Coeffi cient and Gross Rate of Return on Capital in Japan 69 vi Figures and Tables 4.3 Gross Rate of Return on Capital in the People’s Republic of China’s Manufacturing Sector: By Subsector 72 4.4 Estimates and Median Projections of Annual Average Growth Rate of Working Age Population (Aged 15 to 64): the PRC, Japan, and the Republic of Korea 73 4.5 Share of Labor Input by Sector: People’s Republic of China 75 4.6 Share of Labor Input by Sector: Japan 75 4.7 Relative Labor Productivity between Sectors: People’s Republic of China 76 4.8 Japan’s Saving–Investment Balance: Relative to Nominal Gross Domestic Product 77 4.9 Gross Saving/GDP and Gross Investment/GDP in the PRC, the Republic of Korea, and Japan 79 4.10 Japan’s Household and Corporate Saving Relative to Nominal GDP 81 4.11 Economic Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Slowdown and Economic Reforms on Japan in 2020: by Sector 87 4.12 Labor Income Share in the People’s Republic of China 89 4.13 Gross Saving of Each Sector/GDP 90 4.14 Simultaneous Determination of the Gross Saving Rate and the Labor Income Share 90 5.1 Trends in per Capita Gross Domestic Product in Selected Economies 100 5.2 Per Capita Income Level and Growth Rates of the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan Relative to the United States 102 5.3 Change in the Gap of per Worker Output and Its Components between the Republic of Korea and the United States, 1960–2010 108 5.4 Investment Rates of the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States, 1960–2014 109 5.5 Trends of Average Schooling Years of Total Population Aged 15 Years and Over, 1960–2010 111 5.6 Sector Shares of Employment, 1980–2010 128 6.1 Growth of Total Factor Productivity in the People’s Republic of China: An APPF Approach 155 Figures and Tables vii 6.2 Domar and Non-Domar Weighted Factor Input Indices and Reallocation Eff ects 160 6.3 People’s Republic of China’s Industrial GDP Growth: Offi cial versus Alternative Estimates 168 6.4 People’s Republic of China’s “Non-material Services” GDP Growth: Offi cial versus Alternative Estimates 172 6.5 People’s Republic of China’s GDP Growth: Offi cial versus Alternative Estimates 174 7.1 Distribution of the Provincial TFP Growth Rate, 1978–2014 195 7.2 Change in TFP Growth Rate and Its Source, 2008–2014 209 7.3 Investment Surge Impact over the Period 2008–2014 212 8.1 Total Factor Productivity Levels of the People’s Republic of China and Reference Economies 237 8.2 Share of GDP of Major Final-Demand Components (Nominal Basis), 1990–2014 238 8.3 Growth of the People’s Republic of China’s Real Exports and Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 1990–2014 241 9.1 Macroeconomic Eff ects of Investment Slowdown of the PRC, 2015–2020 261 9.2 Macroeconomic Eff ects of Investment Slowdown of the PRC, 2015–2020 261 10.1 Foreign Direct Investment Infl ows in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2002–2014 285 10.2 People’s Republic of China’s Direct Investment Flows to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2009–2014 286 10.3 Share of Foreign Direct Investment Infl ows in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by Major Investors, 2009–2014 287 10.4 Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ Strategic Investment Policy 300 11.1a Actual and Predicted Exports from Australia to the PRC 313 11.1b Actual and Predicted Exports from Brazil to the PRC 313 11.1c Actual and Predicted Exports from Germany to the PRC 314 11.2a Actual and Predicted Exports from East Asia to the PRC 315 11.2b Actual and Predicted Exports from ASEAN-5 to the PRC 316 11.2c Actual and Predicted Exports from Japan to the PRC 316 viii Figures and Tables 11.2d Actual and Predicted Exports from the Republic of Korea to the PRC 317 11.2e Actual and Predicted Exports from Taipei,China to the PRC 317 11.3 Actual and Predicted Exports (excluding electronic parts and components) from East Asia to the PRC 326 11.4 Actual and Predicted Exports from the PRC to East Asia 328 12.1 Trade Links between the PRC, Asia, and the World 339 12.2 Trade Weights of 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2013 for 12 Sample Countries 340 12.3 GIRFs for a One Percentage Point Decline in the People’s Republic of China’s GDP Growth Rate 359 12.4 Bootstrapped GIRFs for a One Percentage Point Decline in the PRC’s Growth using the Trade Weights of 2013 361 12.5 68% Bands of the GIRF Distributions for Diff erent Trade Weights 362 12.6 Bootstrapped GIRFs for a One Percentage Point Decline in the People’s Republic of China’s Growth using the Trade Weights of 2013 364 12.7 Bootstrapped GIRFs for a One Percentage Point Decline in the People’s Republic of China’s Growth using the Trade Weights of 2013 365 12.8 GIRFs for a One Percentage Point Decline in the People’s Republic of China’s GDP Growth Rate With and Without Full Set of Commodities 366 TABLES 2.1 Growth Regressions for Cross-Country Panels 14 2.2 Sample of 89 Countries Used in Table 2.1, Column 1 16 2.3 Growth
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