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Monthly Newsletter Griffon Iran Flagship Fund Griffon Asset Management Asset Management and Private Equity IN THIS ISSUE: • Presidential elections: Mr. Rouhani secures a second term • Market within touching distance of previous year’s high • Q4 corporate earnings and annual AGMs under way • Corporate M&A on the rise • An overview of Pasargad Insurance Company MONTHLY NEWSLETTER MAY 2017 Please see the important Sanctions Disclaimer on pages 6 and 7 of this document. 1 Griffon Iran Flagship Fund Griffon Asset Management IRAN EQUITY MARKETS MAY 2017 II Indices TSE Farabourse Frontier Market Emerging Market MARKETS AT A GLANCE (TEDPIX) (IFX) (MSCI FM) (MSCI EM) The run-up to the presidential Past month elections and Mr. Rouhani’s 1.0% -0.9% 3.8% 4.0% victory (confirmed May 20th) 81,600 940 570 1,020 had a moderately positive 560 1,000 monthly 80,800 930 performance effect on the markets. The 80,000 920 550 980 TEDPIX closed 1.0% higher at 79,200 910 540 960 80,600. The TEDPIX is now Last close 80,600 917 562 1,017 within touching distance Past 12 (<1.1%) of its previous year months 5.9% 12.3% 9.1% 26.0% high posted on March 30, Year to date 2.2% 7.5% 12.5% 17.9% 2016. The IFX was 0.9% lower however, as it was weighed P/E 7.0x 8.4x 13.8x 12.2x down by the drop of a few Div. Yield 9.2% 10.7% 4.0% 2.4% companies (such as Shiraz and Lavan refiners) that have relatively large weights in the TEDPIX Index & P/E Ratio junior index. Q4 corporate II TEDPIX Index & P/E Ratio earnings and AGMs are also 8.00 P/E Ratio Index 85,000 under way, with approx. 60 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.4 companies already reporting 7.3 7.4 7.50 7.2 80,000 their full-year results. 7.0 6.9 7.0 6.8 May’s average daily traded 7.00 75,000 value (ADTV) was $116m, a 15% decline versus April’s 6.50 70,000 Index ADTV of $136m. Institutional P/E Ratio activity (68.7%) outpaced retail 6.00 65,000 activity (31.3%), and was a 5.50 60,000 reversal from April’s retail- dominated activity. The most 5.00 55,000 actively traded sectors were 2,751 2,334 1,722 2,151 2,323 chemicals (12.6%), auto 1,263 1,412 1,492 1,279 1,067 1,063 1,452 (12.1%), base metals (8.0%), J J A S O N D J F M A M utilities (6.8%) and refineries Monthly traded value (million $) (5.1%), which together made up 44.6% of total trades. The average YTMs on the Islamic Market Capitalisation Treasury Bills remained unchanged versus April at TSE Farabourse ~23.0-23.5%. Post election, the Market Cap rial rose against both the dollar (million $) 87,506 23,067 and euro. For May as a whole, Value traded the rial tracked the euro/dollar (million $) 1,884 439 move, gaining 1.0% and losing 1.1% versus the dollar and euro, respectively. $1 : 37,521 IRR is the monthly average free market exchange rate used for this report. All market data represents the period May 1-29, 2017. Sources : Tehran Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, MSCI, Royal Exchange, Griffon Asset Management. Page| 2 Griffon Iran Flagship Fund Griffon Asset Management IRAN EQUITY MARKETS MAY 2017 Sector Performance SECTOR NEWS Auto Best Performing sectors Worst Performing sectors The auto industry saw a 20% y/y production increase in the first month of this new fiscal Publishing & media 25.1% Coal & lignite mining -12.8% year (March – April 2017). Peugeot, which is part of IT & computers 13.6% Wood -10.7% Group PSA, began mass- producing its latest flagship Paper & paper products 13.4% Other mining -7.5% crossover in Iran; although originally priced at around 700 million rials (~$19,000), high Sugar & by-products 10.6% Oil & gas extraction -7.4% demand for the 2008 model means it is expected to sell for Transportation & storage 6.4% Metal products -5.8% more than 900 million rials (~$24,000). Another Group PSA manufacturer, Citroen, took ownership of SAIPA Kashan. It was recently reported that the company Top Gainers and Losers had officially renamed itself SAIPA Citroen, with the first model, the Citroen C4, to be Shahdiran 67.2% Takceram Tile Manuf. -25.4% manufactured in the next few Food stuff excl. sugar Ceramics & tiles months. Steel & Mining Shirin Khorasan Agro. Ind. 58.2% Vehicle Axle Manuf. -23.4% Sugar & by-products Motor vehicles Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the largest steel Iran Carton 40.8% Pardis Housing Inv. -23.1% producer in Iran, increased its ownership in the Mines and Paper & paper products Construction & real estate Metals Development Investment Company (MMDIC) Saman Insurance 38.5% Petro. Transportation -21.3% with the purchase of a 16.1% Insurance companies Transportation & storage block. MMDIC is Iran’s largest mining Investment Company Rouz Darou Pharmaceutical 36.8% Iran Auto-Parts -21.1% and a major shareholder in Pharmaceuticals Motor vehicles several large domestic miners and steel producers. With this acquisition, MSC’s stake in MMDIC increases to 35.4%, making it the largest shareholder. MSC’s vertical integration will likely mean it $1 : 37,521 IRR is the monthly average free-market exchange rate used for this report. can exert greater influence All market data represents the period May 1-29, 2017. Sources: SEO, Financial Tribune, Chemorbis, Mine News, Griffon Asset Management. Page| 3 Griffon Iran Flagship Fund Griffon Asset Management IRAN EQUITY MARKETS MAY 2017 Top 10 Companies by Market Capitalisation on the mining supply chain in such matters as long-term Price values in IRR Market Cap pricing, contracts and export Last price 1-month Year to date 52 w/h 52 w/l (million $) polices. Khalij Fars Petrochem 6,218 4,499 1.1% -0.5% 5,000 4,120 IT & Telecoms Chemicals 5.6% MTN, the South African MCI 3,425 31,901 7.1% 17.3% 32,300 23,078 telecommunication company, Telecoms 3.1% reached an agreement for a Maroon Petrochemical 3,405 32,100 -0.6% -5.6% 34,300 28,000 49% stake in Iranian Net. MTN Chemicals 3.0% plans to invest ~$300m in the fixed-line broadband network TCI 3,107 1,950 1.5% 6.4% 2,049 1,735 company and lend it a further Telecoms 2.8% $450m. Separately the Telecommunication Company Mobarakeh Steel 2,816 1,392 3.1% 2.5% 1,455 1,086 of Iran (TCI), the incumbent Base metals 2.5% fixed-line telco, is developing NICICO 2,499 1,851 -4.0% -2.1% 2,180 1,291 the country’s fibre optic Base metals 2.2% network with three foreign firms — China’s Huawei and Jam Petrochemical 2,472 9,430 1.6% -2.3% 9,800 7,713 FibreHome and Finland’s Nokia Chemicals 2.2% — enabling the launch of fibre- to-the-home (FTTH) services in TAPICO 2,178 1,846 -6.9% -3.4% 2,020 1,733 Iran. FTTH significantly Chemicals 1.9% increases the connection Ghadir Investment 2,176 1,111 2.4% -8.4% 1,286 1,081 speeds available to computer users. Conglomerates 1.9% Banking Bandar Abbas Oil Refining 2,069 5,511 4.9% 15.5% 5,748 4,131 Petroleum products 1.9% The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has ordered banks and credit institutions to terminate their involvement in investment funds and to refrain from USD/IRR Exchange Rate buying bonds and other securities deemed by the CBI as "non-banking activity". In addition, FAM, the company handling the liquidation of banks’ excess non-core assets (as part of the CBI’s banking reform), announced new USD/IRR 37,320 USD/IRR 32,449 - 380.00 +8 auctions for ~250 properties -1.01% +0.02%↑ belonging to Tejarat Bank, Industrial & Mining Bank and Export Development Bank. All market data represents the period May 1-29, 2017. a) Trading in the stock has been suspended. Sources: SEO, CBI, IFB, Financial Tribune ,Tehran Stock Exchange, Royal Exchange, and Griffon Asset Management. Page| 4 Griffon Iran Flagship Fund Griffon Asset Management IRAN EQUITY MARKETS MAY 2017 Pasargad Insurance Co. (BIPZ) Symbol: BIPZ Exchange: IFB Listed since: 2006 Last close: IRR 2,499 90-day change: ↓-0.2% Market cap.: $181.8m P/E (17-18E)(b): 9.2x 12-month return: 0.7% Total assets: $601.0m 5-yr (avg.) dividend payout ratio: 65.2% MC/premium(c) (16-17A)(a): 0.6x % of market (TSE): 0.2% Dividend yield (17-18E)(b): 7.1% P/BVPS (16-17A)(a): 1.8x Return/net earned premium(c) Free float: 27% Avg. daily trade value: $20,108 (16-17A)(a): 12.9% Shares outstanding: 2.5bn 52-wk high/low (IRR): 2,847/2,159 ROTE(c) : 21.2% BIPZ and TEDPIX — Last 2 years Net Earned Premium & Combined Ratio Cash Flow 250 200 130% 3,100 124% 200 122% 120% 125% 2,900 150 150 117% 120% 100 2,700 50 2,500 115% 100 0 107% 110% 2,300 $ (million) (50) $ $ (million) (100) 2,100 105% 50 (150) 1,900 100% (200) 1,700 0 95% (250) 2015-05-03 2015-12-03 2016-07-03 2017-02-03 2014-15A 2015-16A 2016-17A 2017-18E 2018-19E 2014-15A 2015-16A 2016-17A 2017-18E 2018-19E TEDPIX Rebased Pasargad Insurance Net Earned Premium Combined Ratio Operating Investing Financing Financial Statements ($ millions) Company overview 2014-15A 2015-16A 2016-17A(a)2017-18E(b) 2018-19E(b) Pasargad Insurance is a subsidiary of Pasargad Bank, the seventh Underwritten largest listed bank in Iran by assets.
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