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Arista Networks NYSE: ANET Recommendation: BUY Arista Networks NYSE: ANET Recommendation: BUY Alex Tullman & Connor O’Brien Investment Thesis Recommendation: Arista Networks is (NYSE: ANET) is a great high growth stock as it holds a position as the high-end provider and lead innovator in a rapidly growing industry, while currently being underpriced because of a market overreaction. Rationale: The current price of $193.68 provides a cheap entry into a company on the supplier side of one of the fastest growing sectors in tech. As a recognized high-end supplier, Arista Network will continue to succeed as long as cloud network services are demanded. 1. Strong tailwinds and growth potential in the cloud network industry 2. Arista Network is known as the high-end provider for specialized cloud network hardware and software 3. Recent 25% drop in share price is an overreaction that has left the stock undervalued Price Target: $230.73 19.17% upside to current price of $193.68 2 Company Overview Overview Management • Arista Networks, Inc. develops, markets, and sells, cloud • President and CEO (2008-Present) networking solutions in the U.S. and internationally • Jayshree – left 15-year career with Cisco to be CEO • Solutions consist of extensible operating systems, a set of network • Chief Development Officer and Chairman (2004-Present) applications, and gigabit Ethernet switching and routing • Bechtolsheim – gigabit startup acquired by Cisco, VP of platforms – focus is on ethernet switches Gigabit Systems Business at Cisco • Contracts with Jabil Circuit, Sanmina Corp., and Foxconn to • Founded Arista Network in 2004 to create a company make its switches more specialized in gigabit ethernet switches • Has approximately 5,500 end customers worldwide in • OG investor in google, founder of Sun Microsystems approximately 86 countries. • Chief Technology Officer and Senior VP (2004-Present) • Duda – pioneer in networking software, architect of EOS Revenue Segmentation • Cisco design head on software after Granite acquisition Product Service $600,000 $100,000 $90,000 $500,000 $80,000 $400,000 $70,000 $60,000 $300,000 $50,000 $40,000 $200,000 $30,000 $100,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $0 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 3 The Cloud Work and data is When requested, the All work is done on the Rather than everyone stored in remote server User has access to data data is sent to the personal computer, needing sufficient warehouses rather stored in remote server user’s computer but is then sent to the hardware to store data, than the computer’s warehouses utilizing switches servers and stored this process is hardware remotely “outsourced” Importance: Saves costs and increases efficiency by leveraging the infrastructure of large data storage firms. Computers become access points to a “cloud” of remotely stored Requests Delivery information. “Sharing the for data of data same Netflix account,” or specialization 4 1. Strong Cloud Industry Outlook Cloud Services Public Spending Growing % of Data Center Revenues $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Key Industry Drivers High-End Customers Cloud services are becoming more mainstream Together Microsoft and • Apple, Google → Microsoft, Amazon, Verizon, Facebook, Dropbox Facebook comprise roughly Demand for data to be shared rapidly and efficiently is increasing 10% of ANET’s annual revenue. This concentration Ability to store data in-house is less feasible due to the amount being can be concerning, but both transmitted and analyzed customers are committed to working with ANET as they In-house computing technology is expensive and not currently continue to develop their cloud feasible for many firms networks. Both customers have deep pockets, are Software as a Service (SaaS), Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and currently financially healthy, Platform as a Service (PaaS) are three emerging industries that are and should continue to be currently maturing into definite sectors of the “Cloud” which is leaders in their respective providing clarity in the market industries. 5 2. Competitive Advantage Arista’s Extensible Operating System (EOS) • Market leading proprietary software that allows integration with third-party devices to achieve effective solutions in multi-vendor networks • Arista has more than 10 million lines of code and 10,000 person- years of software engineering into EOS • Open and Programmable • Built on an Open Source Linux Kernel which allows for software to be highly modular • Self healing and automotive capabilities • Creates very limited downtime and troubleshooting • EOS software runs across all of its products, increasing reliability, and decreasing complexity and cost to set-up and maintain network Leading Hardware Capabilities CloudVision • Market Leading merchant silicon • While Cloud titans have utilized EOS to develop their own automation and management tools, CloudVision provides an • Traditionally vendors have engineered processors that interface for proactive troubleshooting, performance are task specific circuits (ASIC) and are coupled with task monitoring, and compliance to all of Arista’s customers specific software leading to vendor lock-in and limiting customer choice • Arista sees CloudVision benefitting 3 major segments • Merchant silicon circuits are not task specific, but can be • Cloud Titans – that prioritize scale and control generally used across networking switches, which • Traditional Enterprises – that value turnkey solutions prevents such limitation • Long-term Cloud Enterprises – that rely on top of • Top of the Market Cooling and Energy Efficiency market solutions for a competitive advantage • Important to maintain optimal functioning of major server warehouses 6 Networking Equipment - Switches Market Overview Global Ethernet Switch Market by Share • In a network, switches receive and send data from one end- 100 point (usually a server) to another endpoint 80 • Many different types of switches based on layer, throughput, and networking abilities 60 • Networking ethernet switches be made for small business or 40 campuses to the biggest cloud titans like Microsoft and Amazon 20 • Market contains both cloud and non-cloud capable ethernet 0 switches Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 '11 '12 '12 '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 '15 '16 '16 '17 '17 '18 '18 '19 • Major cloud players: Cisco, Arista, and Juniper Cisco Juniper Arista Others Ethernet Switch by Throughput Arista’s positioning • Throughput segments: 100 Mb, 1 Gb, 10 Gb, 40 Gb, 100+ Gb • As the amount of data increases and cloud computing becomes • $400 mm or 67% of Arista’s Q1 2019 Revenue, from the 100+ more prevalent, higher and higher throughput switches will be Gb switch category demanded • Large service providers and hyperscale cloud • Through its software capabilities, Arista will allow for more providers were the first to adopt 100 Gb networking traditional businesses and campuses to adopt higher switches throughput switches • Due to falling costs and increased need for high • Long-term, this will allow for Arista to diversify bandwidth and low-latency switches, more demand customer base and limit dependence on cloud Titans will come from traditional enterprises for 100 Gb • Meanwhile, Cloud titans will continue to demand increasingly throughput switches high throughputs of over 400 Gb • In 2018 Arista developed a 400 Gb ethernet switch series and • As a leading innovator in the ethernet switches competitors like Cisco quickly followed market, Arista has the ability to capitalize first on this new demand 7 3. Market Overreaction to Q3 5-Year Stock Chart Q3 2019 350 20 In Q3 2019, Arista Network lowered guidance for both Q4 ’19, and 18 2020. 300 16 250 14 This guidance was a result of a decrease in demand from one of 200 12 10 their “Cloud Titans.” ANET services two cloud titans, Microsoft Millions 150 8 and Facebook, and they have explicitly stated that the decrease in 100 6 demand was not a result of Microsoft, so we can assume it was 4 Facebook. 50 2 0 0 $115 million in common stock repurchased at a weighted average cost per share of $224: “$1 billion stock repurchase program…to repurchase shares of our common stock opportunistically Close Price Volume Market Analysis Our Analysis The reduction in demand is a long-term problem in the cloud ANET is currently developing and maturing multiple new revenue market, not just isolated to Facebook streams, including service revenue, the CloudVision, and are also spending lots on R&D to become a more broad provider of cloud The company is too dependent on concentrated revenue streams and network services, like Cisco. the cloud The “cloud” is not going to be as big of a money maker as people ANET did not lose Facebook as a customer, and will continue to originally thought acquire new customers as demand for cloud services grows Mojo merger and cloud campus is not significant The share repurchase program implies a long-term confidence in the fundamentals of the business We also believe the market is finding it difficult to price ANET due to its lack of direct comps They operate in a high margin, rapidly growing industry and deserve to be trading at multiples over their “competitors” 8 Risks and Mitigants Risks Mitigants ▸ Major Customer concentration ▸ Arista has already begun to diversify its client base into campus networking and more traditional enterprises ▸ The cloud networking industry is intensely ▸ Arista is currently the market leader in high- competitive end cloud ethernet switches and solutions
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