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This Item Was Submitted to Loughborough's Institutional This item was submitted to Loughborough’s Institutional Repository (https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/) by the author and is made available under the following Creative Commons Licence conditions. For the full text of this licence, please go to: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ SYNERGIES OF SYNTHESES: A COMPARISON OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND SCIENTIFIC REALIST EVALUATION METHODS FOR CRIME PREVENTION by Louise Elizabeth Grove A Doctoral Thesis Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University July 2010 © L.E. Grove 2010 Abstract This thesis makes two significant contributions to the advancement of knowledge within crime prevention. The first of these is to evaluate the success of repeat victimisation prevention interventions. Interventions across four crime types are assessed herein, and the context-mechanisms-outcome configurations examined. The second contribution of this thesis is to assess two techniques of meta-evaluation: systematic reviews and realist syntheses. Each of these techniques is used in turn to assess the repeat victimisation prevention interventions. The contribution of each technique to the knowledge pool is then discussed, and the question of whether they are complementary or contradictory approaches answered. The thesis is framed in the context of evolutionary epistemology, which is the philosophy underpinning both approaches to meta-evaluation addressed herein. The thesis starts, with an examination of: firstly, how the evaluation methods in question have evolved, and the background to their scientific worth; and secondly, how situational crime prevention measures have evolved over time. The thesis then examines the two competing approaches for their contribution to the evaluation ecosystem by using both to assess repeat victimisation prevention interventions. Finally, the last section poses the question of whether it is survival of the fittest, or whether co-existence or adaptation could be the key to survival for these two meta-evaluative methodologies. Repeat victimisation prevention is revealed as an effective way of reducing crime, with a need for further research to apply the principle across further crime types. A requirement is identified for a greater breadth and depth of information to be included in future crime prevention evaluations. The systematic review is shown to be a useful way of assessing the overall effectiveness of the interventions, whilst the realist synthesis fills in the detail of why some interventions work and others fail. It is concluded that both approaches to meta- evaluation have useful contributions to make, and that a ‘third way’ incorporating the best elements from each method should be developed. Key words Meta-evaluation; repeat victimisation; situational crime prevention; realist synthesis; systematic review; evaluation methodology Acknowledgements Particular thanks are due to my supervisor Graham Farrell. The unwavering support of my husband Mark deserves special recognition. I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who was there for me throughout my PhD – the process would have been infinitely harder without the encouragement of my parents and friends. Thanks to everyone for being generous with their time, expertise and contacts: Pete Bumpus, Sylvia Chenery, Alan Edmunds, Ken Pease, Robert Street, Rebecca Thompson, Nick Tilley, and Mark Wilson. Thanks also go to the authors who were kind enough to send me copies of evaluations, your help made this possible: Rick Cummings, Stephanie Taplin, and Janice Webb I would also like to acknowledge the support of the ESRC in funding my postgraduate studies, award number PTA-031-2006-00065. My heartfelt apologies to anyone I’ve neglected to list by name, your contribution is nonetheless greatly appreciated. Contents Chapter One: Introduction ................................................................................................. 2 Chapter Two: The Evaluation Debate ................................................................................ 9 Chapter Three: The Evolution of Situational Crime Prevention and the Prevention of Repeat Victimisation......................................................................................................... 38 Chapter Four: Systematic Review Methodology ............................................................. 68 Chapter Five: A Systematic Review of Repeat Victimisation Prevention Programmes 83 Chapter Six: Realist Synthesis Methodology .................................................................. 133 Chapter Seven: Realist Synthesis of Repeat Victimisation Prevention Evaluations ..... 144 Chapter Eight: Comparative Analysis of Systematic Reviews and Realist Syntheses ... 174 Chapter Nine: Conclusions & Recommendations .......................................................... 188 References ....................................................................................................................... 206 Appendix A: Summary of studies excluded from the systematic review ...................... 235 Appendix B: Domestic burglary study level coding manual ......................................... 243 Appendix C: An example of a completed comments form ........................................... 246 SECTION I: INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance - Confucius 1 | P a g e Chapter One: Introduction This report, by its very length, defends itself against the risk of being read. - Winston Churchill BACKGROUND This thesis makes two significant contributions to the advancement of knowledge within crime prevention. The first of these is to evaluate the success of repeat victimisation prevention interventions. Interventions across four crime types are assessed herein, and the context-mechanisms-outcome configuration examined. The second contribution of this thesis is to assess two techniques of meta-evaluation: systematic reviews and realist syntheses. Each of these techniques is used in turn to assess the repeat victimisation prevention interventions. The contribution of each technique to the knowledge pool is then discussed, and the question of whether they are complementary or contradictory approaches answered. The thesis is framed in the context of evolutionary epistemology, which is the philosophy underpinning both approaches to meta-evaluation addressed herein. The thesis starts, with an examination of: firstly, how the evaluation methods in question have evolved, and the background to their scientific worth; and secondly, how situational crime prevention measures have evolved over time. The thesis then examines the two competing approaches for their contribution to the evaluation ecosystem by using both to assess repeat victimisation prevention interventions. Finally, the last section poses the question of whether it is survival of the fittest, or whether co-existence or adaptation could be the key to survival for these two meta-evaluative methodologies. Repeat victimisation prevention is revealed as an effective way of reducing crime, with a need for further research to apply the principle across further crime types. A requirement is identified for a greater breadth and depth of information to be included in future crime prevention evaluations. The systematic review is shown to be a useful way of assessing the overall effectiveness of the interventions, whilst the realist synthesis fills in the detail of why some interventions work and others fail. It is concluded that both approaches to meta- 2 | P a g e evaluation have useful contributions to make, and that a ‘third way’ incorporating the best elements from each method should be developed. DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS THE EVOLUTIONARY EPISTEMOLOGY OF THEORIES This approach to the nature of knowledge stems from the Darwinian theories of evolution. It draws on issues such as “pragmatism, empiricism [and] the validation and legitimation of knowledge” (Plotkin, 1982:3). It is characterised by the change in focus “from science as product to science as process” (Zammito, 2004: 122) thus acknowledging the ever changing nature of knowledge as new theories and problems are identified. Popper (1959) is credited with the recognition that the succession of theories in science has a “similar selective elimination process” to natural selection (Campbell, 1974 [1982:75]), although it was Donald Campbell who coined the term ‘evolutionary epistemology’ (Bradie and Harms, 2008). Campbell (1974 [1982:101]) argues that the evolutionary epistemology is fully compatible with his own and with Popper’s stance of “critical hypothetical realism”. Indeed, Campbell and Popper shared much common ground in their understanding of evolutionary epistemology. This is an important notion, as each of these academics spawned one of the approaches to meta-evaluation discussed in this thesis. EVOLUTIONARY THEORIES AND THEIR APPLICATION TO CRIME Evolutionary theories provide a theme which can be applied throughout this thesis. The realist synthesis and systematic review approaches share a common ancestor in the evolutionary epistemology discussed above. They have pushed each other to develop in a way akin to co- evolution, where each has exerted pressures on the other, thereby affecting the way in which each evolves. Situational crime prevention has evolved, adapted, and occasionally taken leaps analogous to mutation in the years since it was first developed, often in order to face new crime challenges,
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