Preemptive and Preventive War: a Preliminary Taxonomy
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How Technology Impacts Doctrine in Asymmetric Warfare
0 How Technology Impacts Doctrine in Asymmetric Warfare Jeremiah Rozman Northfield Vermont Bachelors of Arts, University of Vermont, 2014 A Thesis presented to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Virginia in Candidacy for the Degree of Master of Arts Department of Foreign Affairs University of Virginia May, 2016 1 Abstract How does technology impact military doctrine, and how does this in turn impact political support for offensive, preventative or preemptive military action?1 I study defensive weapons systems, specifically focusing on missile defense in the theoretical context of technology and defense-based strategies as a whole. Through the study of Israel’s use of Iron Dome, I aim to demonstrate that technology can be an exogenous factor affecting military doctrine. Through careful case study analysis, I demonstrate that operationally successful defensive technologies can lead to the adoption of a defensive military doctrine by decreasing the political cost of inaction to the extent that allowing attrition becomes politically less costly than launching an offensive. Introduction A comparison of Israel’s two recent wars in Gaza, Operation Cast Lead in 2008/9 and Operation Protective Edge in 2014, indicates that the tactical success of Iron Dome, as a defensive military technology, can effect a change in military doctrine. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the effect of an unexpectedly successful defensive military technology on military doctrine, an effect which leads to prioritizing defense, allowing attrition, and moving away from a long-standing offense-based doctrine, specifically when dealing with asymmetric conflict. This study focuses on Israel, specifically in the Gaza theater of conflict and not in the Northern theater of conflict where Israel’s adversary, Hezbollah is 1 Preemptive war is defined as actor A launching a first strike in order to gain advantage in a situation where an attack by actor B is anticipated to be imminent. -
Working Paper: Do Not Cite Or Circulate Without Permission
THE COPENHAGEN TEMPTATION: RETHINKING PREVENTION AND PROLIFERATION IN THE AGE OF DETERRENCE DOMINANCE Francis J. Gavin Mira Rapp-Hooper What price should the United States – or any leading power – be willing to pay to prevent nuclear proliferation? For most realists, who believe nuclear weapons possess largely defensive qualities, the price should be small indeed. While additional nuclear states might not be welcomed, their appearance should not be cause for undue alarm. Such equanimity would be especially warrantedWORKING if the state in question PAPER: lacked DO other attributesNOT CITE of power. OR Nuclear acquisition should certainly notCIRCULATE trigger thoughts of WITHOUT preventive militar PERMISSIONy action, a phenomena typically associated with dramatic shifts in the balance of power. The historical record, however, tells a different story. Throughout the nuclear age and despite dramatic changes in the international system, the United States has time and again considered aggressive policies, including the use of force, to prevent the emergence of nuclear capabilities by friend and foe alike. What is even more surprising is how often this temptation has been oriented against what might be called “feeble” states, unable to project other forms of power. The evidence also reveals that the reasons driving this preventive thinking often had more to do with concerns over the systemic consequences of nuclear proliferation, and not, as we might expect, the dyadic relationship between the United States and the proliferator. Factors 1 typically associated with preventive motivations, such as a shift in the balance of power or the ideological nature of the regime in question, were largely absent in high-level deliberations. -
Extending the Concept of Preventive War and Understanding Its Implications
Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports 2008 Strategies of prevention: Extending the concept of preventive war and understanding its implications Steven T. Walker West Virginia University Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd Recommended Citation Walker, Steven T., "Strategies of prevention: Extending the concept of preventive war and understanding its implications" (2008). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 2747. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/2747 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by the The Research Repository @ WVU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you must obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in WVU Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports collection by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Strategies of Prevention: Extending the Concept of Preventive War and Understanding Its Implications Steven T. Walker Dissertation Submitted to the Eberly College of Arts and Sciences at West Virginia University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Political Science Joe D. Hagan, Ph.D., Co-chair Scott Crichlow, Ph.D., Co-chair Robert Duval, Ph.D. Hong Kim, Ph.D. James Siekmeier, Ph.D. -
World War Ii in Context
April 12, 2001 // 17.423 Causes and Prevention of War // MIT poli. sci. dept. Van Evera, Gabbitas and Lejlic ORIGINS OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR I. WORLD WAR II IN CONTEXT World War II was the greatest war in world history. Some 35-60 million people died in this enormous global conflagration. This vast war closely followed the most elaborate and hopeful effort ever made to design a peaceful world--the 1919 Versailles peace. Never before had world leaders sought so consciously to use their power to shape a peaceful world as they did in 1919. And never has the world seen such violence as it did in Versailles' aftermath. In contrast, the peace that emerged in 1945 was undesigned yet proved far more durable. What does this say of our capacity to engineer a more peaceful world?1 II. WAR & REMEMBRANCE: HOW ILLUSIONS REPLACED REALITY IN EUROPE'S MEMORY OF THE FIRST WORLD WAR (See Holger Herwig, "Clio Deceived...") Sometimes losers write history. They did here, and sold this history to the winners. The world paid dearly for the German-authored Great Social Science Experiment of 1898-1918. (The experiment destroyed the laboratory!) But then someone falsified the lab notes. III. NATIONAL POLICIES AND IDEAS A. Germany: 1. Germans practiced creative history. Weimar-era (1920's) German schools & scholars told and believed lies about: a. The origins of WWI--"The Entente powers encircled Germany and instigated the war!" b. The causes and responsibility for Germany's defeat--"the Jews and the socialists did it!", not Ludendorff and the superhawks. -
The Ethics of Cyberwarfare Randall R
This article was downloaded by: [University of Pennsylvania] On: 28 February 2013, At: 08:22 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK Journal of Military Ethics Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/smil20 The Ethics of Cyberwarfare Randall R. Dipert a a SUNY (State University of New York) at Buffalo, NY, USA Version of record first published: 16 Dec 2010. To cite this article: Randall R. Dipert (2010): The Ethics of Cyberwarfare, Journal of Military Ethics, 9:4, 384-410 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15027570.2010.536404 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Full terms and conditions of use: http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and- conditions This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material. Journal of Military Ethics, Vol. 9, No. 4, 384Á410, 2010 The Ethics of Cyberwarfare RANDALL R. -
Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Comparative Analysis James J
Naval War College Review Volume 60 Article 13 Number 2 Spring 2007 Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Analysis James J. Wirtz Lyle J. Goldstein Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Wirtz, James J. and Goldstein, Lyle J. (2007) "Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Analysis," Naval War College Review: Vol. 60 : No. 2 , Article 13. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol60/iss2/13 This Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen 154 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW Wirtz and Goldstein: Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Secretary of Defense was focused on technologies, with the attendant as- building up Army and Air Force strength sumption that fewer forces will be in Western Europe, while naval forces needed as a consequence. Further, he languished because they were seen as of questions whether the process of trans- lesser utility. Hayward set out to chal- formation is really advanced by grafting lenge this strategic vision by commis- an “Office of Force Transformation” sioning and then championing a naval (since abolished) onto the Department force-planning study called “Sea Plan of Defense, arguing that the services 2000.” The essence of this plan was the were in fact taking full advantage of in- assertion that any assault across the formation technologies for a decade be- inner-German border would result in a fore a “revolution in military affairs” global war. -
STRIKING FIRST – Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. STRIKINGFIRST Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy KARL P. MUELLER JASEN J. CASTILLO FORREST E. MORGAN NEGEEN PEGAHI BRIAN ROSEN Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. -
Contrasting Perspectives and Preemptive Strike: the United States, France, and the War on Terror
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of Maine, School of Law: Digital Commons Maine Law Review Volume 58 Number 2 Symposium: French and American Perspectives Towards International Law Article 12 and International Institutions June 2006 Contrasting Perspectives and Preemptive Strike: The United States, France, and The War on Terror Sophie Clavier Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.mainelaw.maine.edu/mlr Part of the International Law Commons, Military, War, and Peace Commons, and the National Security Law Commons Recommended Citation Sophie Clavier, Contrasting Perspectives and Preemptive Strike: The United States, France, and The War on Terror, 58 Me. L. Rev. 565 (2006). Available at: https://digitalcommons.mainelaw.maine.edu/mlr/vol58/iss2/12 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at University of Maine School of Law Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Maine Law Review by an authorized editor of University of Maine School of Law Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 566 MAINE LAW REVIEW [Vol. 58:2 CONTRASTING PERSPECTIVES ON PREEMPTIVE STRIKE: THE UNITED STATES, FRANCE, AND THE WAR ON TERROR Sophie Clavier· I. INTRODUCTION A few years ago, Samuel P. Huntington's article in FOREIGN AFFAIRS, "The Clash ofCivi/izations?" 1 described a "West vs. the Rest" conflict leading to the assumption of an essentially unified Western civilization settling "[g]lobal political and security issues ... effectively ... by a directorate of the United States, Britain and France" 2 and centered around common core values "using international institutions, military power and economic resources to run the world in ways that will .. -
Preventive War
Georgetown University Law Center 2003 Working Paper Series in Public Law and Legal Theory Preventive War by David Luban This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=469862 PREVENTIVE WAR David Luban1 The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq had three stated justifications: a legalistic argument that the war was necessary to enforce United Nations resolutions in the face of Iraqi defiance, a humanitarian argument that the war would remove a brutal dictator, and a preventive war argument that, in the words of President Bush’s National Security Statement (NSS), the U.S. must “stop rogue states and their terrorist clients before they are able to threaten or use weapons of mass destruction against the United States and our allies and friends,” which requires acting “against such emerging threats before they are fully formed.”2 While the legalistic and humanitarian arguments are by no means unimportant or uncontroversial, the preventive war argument forms my topic in this paper. Not only was it the principal argument offered by the U.S. government, it represents an important revision in just war theory and the law of armed conflict. In addition to the three stated justifications for the Iraq invasion, pundits, analysts, and critics offered a number of putative justifications beyond those the government was willing to acknowledge. The influential journalist Thomas Friedman, who supported the war, argued that creating a vibrant, successful democracy in Iraq would spur reform of the despotic and 1 This paper was prepared for a roundtable discussion at the August 2003 American Political Science Association revisiting Michael Walzer’s Just and Unjust Wars. -
Chinese Attitudes on Preventive War and the “Preemption Doctrine”
CHINESE ATTITUDES ON PREVENTIVE WAR AND THE “PREEMPTION DOCTRINE” Scott A. Silverstone 2009 INSS RESEARCH PAPER US AIR FORCE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES USAF ACADEMY, COLORADO Chinese Attitudes on Preventive War and the “Preemption Doctrine” by Scott A. Silverstone* July 2009 With the release of President Bush‘s first National Security Strategy (NSS) in September 2002, the administration articulated a bold claim about the use of military force that had been crystallizing in American strategic circles over the previous decade. According to a central element in the emerging ―Bush Doctrine‖, launching attacks against so-called rogue states suspected of pursuing weapons of mass destruction was a normatively legitimate strategically necessary response to the changing threat environment. This paper examines the attitudes on preventive war in the case of the Peoples Republic of China. Specifically it asks how Chinese elites – government officials and academics – view preventive war in the wake of American efforts to recast the preventive war norm and the invasion so Iraq. How do Chinese elites react to the logic and normative claims at the heart of the Bush administration‘s ―preemption doctrine‖? Do Chinese elites reject it in normative terms reminiscent of the anti- preventive war attitudes prevalent in the United States during the decades after World War II? Or have Chinese elites accepted America‘s position on this issue as a precedent that the Chinese government itself might mobilize politically in potential conflicts on its periphery? With the release of President Bush‘s first National Security Strategy (NSS) in September 2002, the administration articulated a bold claim about the use of military force that had been crystallizing in American strategic circles over the previous decade. -
Ethics, Intelligence, and Preemptive and Preventive Actions Ralph L
Ethics, Intelligence, and Preemptive and Preventive Actions Ralph L. DeFalco III . Since it appeared in the National Security Strategy of the United States in 2002, the Bush Doctrine of preemption has been a source of much confusion, partisan debate, and controversy. Part of that confusion flowed from the tendency by both the Bush administration and the press to conflate preemption and prevention. In addition, a great deal of debate in the media and in the halls of Congress was generated by the putative doctrinal approach to the use of military force in preeinptive actions-and even prompted the press to pose a question on doctrine to a vice presidential candidate. The contro versy, of course, stems from the U.S. military involvement in the Iraq War, an action the Bush administration claimed as preemptive and critics vilified as aggression, as preventive war, and therefore as immoral. Despite the flurry of confusion, debate, and controversy on this issue, only modest efforts have been made to evaluate the nature of the intelligence requirements that support preemptive and preven tive actions undertaken by policymakers. Even less attention has been focused on the ethical bounds of intelligence in support of preemptive and preventive actions. This article addresses the ethical issues raised by intelligence support of preemptive and preventive actions and makes an assessment of these issues presented within the context of the elements of just war tradition. It argues that the just use of preemptive and preventive acts of state, and especially those employing armed force, must be preceded by telling intelligence that unambiguously identifies the threat to the state and to its security. -
Preemption, Prevention, and Jus Ad Bellum
Portland State University PDXScholar Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations Political Science 1-15-2013 Preemption, Prevention, and Jus Ad Bellum Craig L. Carr Portland State University David Todd Kinsella Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/polisci_fac Part of the International Relations Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Citation Details Carr, Craig L. and Kinsella, David Todd, "Preemption, Prevention, and Jus Ad Bellum" (2013). Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations. 17. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/polisci_fac/17 This Conference Proceeding is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. PREEMPTION, PREVENTION, AND JUS AD BELLUM Craig L. Carr David Kinsella Hatfield School of Government Portland State University ________________________ Paper prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, March 2006, San Diego. Carr can be reached at [email protected]; Kinsella at [email protected]. PREEMPTION, PREVENTION, AND JUS AD BELLUM Abstract In The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, released one year after the 9/11 attacks, the Bush administration asserted that “we must adapt the concept of imminent threat to the capabilities and objectives of today’s adversaries.” The administration’s reconceptualization has triggered an intense debate within academic and policymaking circles about the legal and ethical distinction (if any) between anticipatory and precautionary self- defense, and thus preemptive and preventive warfare.