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Extending the Concept of Preventive War and Understanding Its Implications Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports 2008 Strategies of prevention: Extending the concept of preventive war and understanding its implications Steven T. Walker West Virginia University Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd Recommended Citation Walker, Steven T., "Strategies of prevention: Extending the concept of preventive war and understanding its implications" (2008). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 2747. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/2747 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by the The Research Repository @ WVU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you must obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in WVU Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports collection by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Strategies of Prevention: Extending the Concept of Preventive War and Understanding Its Implications Steven T. Walker Dissertation Submitted to the Eberly College of Arts and Sciences at West Virginia University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Political Science Joe D. Hagan, Ph.D., Co-chair Scott Crichlow, Ph.D., Co-chair Robert Duval, Ph.D. Hong Kim, Ph.D. James Siekmeier, Ph.D. Department of Political Science Morgantown, WV 2008 Keywords: preventive war, preventive action, international relations Abstract Strategies of Prevention: Expanding the Concept of Preventive War And Understanding Its Implications Steven T. Walker This dissertation contributes to the literature on prevention in two specific ways. First, it broadens the concept of preventive war, developing the idea that dominant states have a choice when it comes to dealing with rising challengers. The choice is not a dichotomous variable of either war or no war. Instead, there is a range of choices that decision makers within the dominant state have at their disposal. This dissertation examines the relationship—over time— between two conflictual states, one in relative decline and the other in relative ascendance, and studies the response of the dominant but declining power. Second, I focus more than others have on the perceptions of decision makers and the workings of domestic politics in determining how dominant states respond to rising challengers. I use three broad historical case studies to empirically test my ideas about the extended concept of preventive action. Using components of the method of structured, focused comparison, I examine the internal domestic decision making processes of the cases. Finally, I utilize a foreign policy analysis approach and develop a model that illuminates nuances that have been largely overlooked in the scholarly literature. Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my lovely wife, Kristy. Without her love and support, this dissertation would never have materialized. It has been a long road, but we have finally made it. iii Acknowledgements In any project that covers seven years, there are many people to thank for their invaluable assistance. First, I would like to thank the Co-chairs of my dissertation committee, Dr. Joe Hagan and Dr. Scott Crichlow. Dr. Hagan provided keen editing of earlier drafts and indispensable advice all along the way. Dr. Crichlow gave timely input every step of the way in this project, even when I was half a continent away. Without his help, this project would simply never have come to fruition. Second, I would like to thank the other members of the committee: Dr. Bob Duval, Dr. Hong Kim, and Dr. James Siekmeier. I would also like to thank Dr. Jamie Jacobs and Dr. Jason Parker, who were there in the beginning but have since moved on. Specifically, I would like to thank all of them for their patience in waiting for drafts and their suggestions that helped make this dissertation a better product. I would also like to thank the Department of Political Science at West Virginia University for providing a pleasant and collegiate atmosphere within which to pursue a graduate degree. Specifically, Dr. Allan Hammock—who was the Chair of the department during my time in residency at WVU—should be commended for making the department a great place to study during his tenure. I would also like to thank the department for its financial support while I was in residence. This project would have been impossible without that support. I would also like to thank the faculty, staff, and administration of Northwest College for providing financial and moral support over the past two years. A project of this length requires many resources, and without the support of Northwest College, this would have been impossible. I have been fortunate to have many professors during my college career who encouraged me along the way and helped shape my thinking over the years. Key professors in this regard include the late Dr. Bernard V. Burke (Portland State University), Dr. Ronald Schlundt (University of Maryland, University College, European Division), and Dr. J. Thomas Hogle (University of Maryland, University College, European Division). These professors, and many others along the way, have helped foster my love of knowledge and my dedication to learning and teaching. I would like to thank my parents, Ted and Leona Walker, for their love, support, and encouragement throughout my life. They deserve a great deal of credit for all that I accomplish. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank my wife, Kristy, and our three children: Brittany, Rachel, and Anna, for their unconditional love, patience, and support as I pursued this degree. We have sacrificed much as a family to get to this point, but I am confident that it all has been worth it. Of course, any errors or omissions are mine alone. iv Table of Contents Abstract ii Dedication iii Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents v List of Tables viii List of Figures ix Chapter One—Introduction 1 Chapter Two—Literature Review 7 International Systems Theory and Preventive War 9 Balance of Power Theory and War 10 Power Transition Theory and the Hierarchy of the International System 12 Hegemonic Stability Theory and Prestige 16 Perception and Preventive War 16 Empirical Work 18 State Level Theories and Preventive War 20 Conclusion—Expanding the Concept and Examining Domestic Factors 25 Chapter Three—The Domestic Politics Model of Prevention (DPMP) 27 Assumptions of the DPMP: Prospect Theory 28 Components of the DPMP 29 Causal Mechanism 1: Internal Power Constraints 29 Causal Mechanism 2: Domestic Political Constraints 32 Causal Mechanism 3: Ruler Belief Systems 34 Dependent Variable: Form of Preventive Action 45 Testing the DPMP 48 Hypotheses 49 Alternative Model 1: Offensive Realism as a Structural Model of Preventive War 52 Alternative Model 2: Schweller’s Democratic Peace as a Model of Preventive War/Action 54 Methodology 55 The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison 55 The Case Study Method 56 Process Tracing 63 Typological Theories 66 Chapter Four—The Decline of the United Kingdom 70 Power Relations 71 Nature of the Threat 76 Economic Threats 76 Military Threats 87 Continental Powers 88 v United States 98 Japan 105 Analysis 108 Conclusion 123 Chapter Five—The Decline of Russia and the Soviet Union 124 A Brief History to 1816 124 Power Relations 125 Nature of the Threat 130 Economic Challenges 130 Military Threats 135 Germany (1816-1938) 142 United Kingdom (1936-1946) 145 United States (1816-1860) 146 Japan (1860-1944) 146 Analysis 148 Conclusion 164 Chapter Six—The Decline of the United States 165 A Brief Overview of American Power and Foreign Policy 165 Power Relations 167 Nature of the Threat 171 Economic Challenges 173 Russia/Soviet Union 173 Prussia/Germany 174 Japan 174 United Kingdom 177 Military Threats 177 Russia/Soviet Union 177 Prussia/Germany 190 Japan 199 United Kingdom 205 Analysis 207 Conclusion 248 Chapter Seven—Conclusion 253 The Models: Reviews and Evaluations 255 Alternative Model 1: John Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism Model 255 Alternative Model 2: Schweller’s Democratic Peace as a Model of Preventive War/Action 258 The Domestic Politics Model of Prevention 267 Which Model—or Models—Works Best? 272 Implications 277 Conclusion 278 vi Bibliography 282 Appendix A: The Decision Making Process in the Domestic Politics Model of Prevention 289 Appendix B: A Typology of Preventive Action 310 Appendix C: Selected Polity IV Scores 311 vii List of Tables Table 4.1—A Typology of Preventive Action 109 Table 4.2—Mearsheimer’s and Schweller’s Predicted Outcomes 122 Table 5.1—A Typology of Preventive Action 149 Table 5.2—Mearsheimer’s and Schweller’s Predicted Outcomes 163 Table 6.1—A Typology of Preventive Action 207 Table 6.2—Mearsheimer’s and Schweller’s Predicted Outcomes 247 Table 7.1—Summaries of Model Performance 273 viii List of Figures Figure 4.1—United Kingdom-United States CINC Scores 71 Figure 4.2—United Kingdom-Germany CINC Scores 73 Figure 4.3—United Kingdom-Japan CINC Scores 74 Figure 4.4—United Kingdom-Russia CINC Scores 75 Figure 5.1—Russia-United States CINC Scores 126 Figure 5.2—Russia-Germany CINC Scores 127 Figure 5.3—Russia-Japan CINC Scores 128 Figure 5.4—Russia-United Kingdom CINC Scores 129 Figure 6.1—United States-Russia/Soviet Union CINC Scores 168 Figure 6.2—United States-United Kingdom CINC Scores 169 Figure 6.3—United States-Prussia/Germany CINC Scores 170 Figure 6.4—United States-Japan CINC Scores 171 ix Chapter One Introduction This dissertation contributes to the literature on prevention in two specific ways.
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