Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper
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Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper Delaware River Region Common Waters Partnership Pinchot Institute for Conservation Author: Susan Beecher Model Forest Policy Program | Cumberland River Compact Foreword n 2012, the Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP), the Cumberland River Compact, Headwaters Economics, the Common Waters Partnership and the Pinchot Institute for Conservation came I together to create a climate adaptation plan for the communities of the Upper Delaware River Region. Development of the plan came about because all parties, led by MFPP, recognized the critical need for local community resilience against the impacts of climate change by protecting forest and water resources. This climate adaptation plan for the Upper Delaware Region of southeastern New York, northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey presents the results of a community team effort, deep and broad information gathering, critical analysis and thoughtful planning. The Common Waters Partnership and Pinchot Institute for Conservation shared the local leadership role to engage with the Climate Solutions University: Forest and Water Strategies program (CSU) and lead their community toward climate resilience with an adaptation plan that addresses their local climate risks and fits their local conditions and culture. This achievement was made possible by the guidance and coaching of the CSU program created by the Model Forest Policy Program in partnership with the Cumberland River Compact and the assistance of Headwaters Economics. The goal of CSU is to empower rural, underserved communities to become leaders in climate resilience using a cost effective distance-learning program. The result of this collaborative effort is a powerful climate adaptation plan that the community can support and implement in coming years. The outcome will be a community that can better withstand impacts of climate upon their natural resources, economy and social structure in the decades to come. Acknowledgements Climate Solutions University would not have been possible without the major funding of The Kresge Foundation and other funders, which allowed us to develop the in-depth curriculum and provide grants for local community participation. The team that leads the CSU program includes: Nancy Gilliam, Gwen Griffith, Alyx Perry, Toby Thaler, Todd Crossett, Margaret Hall, Jeff Morris, Ray Rasker, Vanitha Sivarajan, Josh Dye, and Mike Johnson. A special thanks to staff and community members from our OR, AK, NM and MI communities and to Core Group member Nalat Phanit for her organizational assistance. Cover inset photo(s) courtesy of DRBC Collection and Dave Soete. Suggested citation: Beecher, S., & Thaler, T., Griffith, G., Perry, A.., Crossett, T., Rasker, R. (Eds). 2013. Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper Delaware River Region. Model Forest Policy Program in association with Common Waters Partnership, Pinchot Institute for Conservation the Cumberland River Compact and Headwaters Economics; Sagle, ID. Available for download from: www.mfpp.org Date of publication: December, 2013 © 2013 Model Forest Policy Program Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper Delaware River Region i Author Susan Beecher Editors Gwen Griffith, Toby Thaler, Todd Crossett, and Ray Rasker Copyright It is the intent of the authors and copyright holder that this plan be implemented and used as a model for climate adaptation planning by other communities. Any part of plan may be reproduced without permission for non-commercial purposes provided that it is reproduced accurately and not in a misleading context and the source of the material is clearly acknowledged by means of the above title, publisher, and date. The wide dissemination, reproduction, and use of the plan for non-commercial purposes are all encouraged. Users of the plan are requested to inform the Model Forest Policy Program at: Model Forest Policy Program, P.O. Box 328, Sagle, Idaho 83860 [email protected], (509) 432-8679; www.mfpp.org No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Model Forest Policy Program. Disclaimer The material in this publication does not imply the opinion, endorsement, views, or policies of the Model Forest Policy Program, the Cumberland River Compact or Headwaters Economics. Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper Delaware River Region ii Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 6 A Call to Action ........................................................................................................................................ 6 The Upper Delaware River Region at a Glance ........................................................................................ 8 About the Lead Organizations ................................................................................................................ 10 The Planning Group and Planning Process ............................................................................................. 11 Climate Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 12 The Global Picture .................................................................................................................................. 12 Trends in the Northeastern United States ............................................................................................... 12 Trends in the Delaware River Basin ....................................................................................................... 13 What Climate Change Means to the Upper Delaware River Region ...................................................... 14 Why Adaptation Planning Is Important .................................................................................................. 15 Goals for the Adaptation Planning Process ............................................................................................. 16 Economics and the Environment ................................................................................................................ 17 Demographic and Economic Trends in the Upper Delaware Region ..................................................... 17 Relationship of the Economy to the Environment .................................................................................. 30 Economic Vulnerabilities Associated with a Changing Climate ................................................................ 31 Forest and Water Resources Assessment Findings ..................................................................................... 42 The Region’s Forests and Waters – A Brief History .............................................................................. 42 Forests - Current Conditions and Trends ................................................................................................ 48 Forest Climate Risk Findings .................................................................................................................. 61 Policy and Practices Affecting Forest Conservation ............................................................................... 70 Potential Forest Solutions - Strategies for Climate Resilience ............................................................... 70 Water Resources - Current Conditions and Trends................................................................................. 80 Current Water Resources Stressors ....................................................................................................... 102 Climate-Related Water Risks ................................................................................................................ 111 Potential Water Solutions - Strategies for Climate Resilience .............................................................. 122 Analysis and Recommendations to Address Assessment Findings .......................................................... 129 Climate Adaptation Action Plan ............................................................................................................... 133 Plan Implementation ................................................................................................................................. 149 Anticipated Outcomes ............................................................................................................................... 151 References ................................................................................................................................................. 153 Appendix 1: Members of the Common Waters Partnership ..................................................................... 161 Appendix 2: DRBC Flood Advisory Committee (FAC) Recommendations for more Effective Floodplain Regulations in the Delaware River Basin, October 2009 ........................................................ 162 Appendix 3: Climate Risk Analysis Tables .............................................................................................. 165 Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities