Economic Profile of New Jersey’s Coastal Regions

New Jersey Coastal Resilience Summit October 9, 2018 Overview

 Coastal Management Program Area  How to approach it? – 4 regions?  New Jersey trends  Regional trends- available data  Industrial Composition  Employment Trends  Housing Trends  Property Losses from Sandy  Other Value at Risk Coastal Management Program Area

 239 Municipalities

 All or part of 17 Counties

 About 53% of NJ population

 About 52% of NJ employment A Diverse Region

 Shore Counties – Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May

 Northern urban industrial “coastal” areas – Jersey City, Newark, Bayonne

 Delaware Bay – Cumberland/Salem

 Delaware River/Industrial Coast Long-Term Employment Trends in NJ

Employment Change, 1990-2017 600 492 500

400

300 280.3 227.7 200

75.7 100 51.8 53 38.1 29.2 37.4 7.3 23.8 14.6

Thousands 0 -11.1 -100

-200

-300 -284.4 -400

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Post-Recession Employment Trends in NJ

Employment Change, 2010-2017

300 278.7

250

200

150

100 Thousands 75 70.1

50 41.1 25.5 24.9 22.7 27.5 8.7 13.1 12.2 0.3 0 -7.5 -50 -27.8

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shore Tourism Counties

CMP Population, Ocean Counties

 Most of the municipalities and County CMP Total CMP Share population of these counties falls in Atlantic County 241,883 269,918 89.6% the CMP area Cape May County 93,553 93,553 100.0% Monmouth County 423,211 626,351 67.6% Ocean County 589,400 597,943 98.6%  About 85% of population and Total 1,348,047 1,587,765 84.9% employment in those counties

CMP Municipalities, Ocean Counties  They account for about 28% of total population in the CMP area County CMP Total CMP Share Atlantic County 19 23 82.6% Cape May County 16 16 100.0%  A total of 590,000 jobs Monmouth County 42 53 79.2% Ocean County 32 33 97.0% Total 109 125 87.2%  15% of state employment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; NJ Dept. of Labor. Industry Employment Shares, 2017

Industry Shares 2017, NJ and Shore Region 18.0% 16.0% NJ Shore Counties 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shore Counties Employment Growth

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.1

1.08

1.06

1.04

1.02

1

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

0.9 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NJ Shore Counties

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shore Region Growth by County

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.3

1.25

1.2

1.15

1.1

1.05

1

0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Atlantic Cape May Monmouth Ocean

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Change, 2001-2017 NJ and Shore Region

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

-40.0%

-50.0% NJ Ocean Counties

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tourism and Recreation

Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, © Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, © Legend OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Legend OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Housing Development – Shore Counties

Building Permits, 2007 15000

10000

5000

0 NJ Shore Region Atlantic Cape May Monmouth Ocean Single Multi

Building Permits, 2017 20000

15000

10000

5000

0 NJ Shore Region Atlantic Cape May Monmouth Ocean Single Multi Hurricane Sandy Property Losses (Total property value in $ millions)

County 2011 2014 Change Percent

Atlantic 45,746.0 37,298.3 -8,447.7 -18.5%

Cape May 50,679.7 47,881.7 -2,798.0 -5.5%

Monmouth 75,735.7 74,360.7 -1,375.0 -1.8%

Ocean 95,157.1 86,513.7 -8,643.4 -9.1%

Total 267,318.5 246,054.3 -21,264.2 -8.0% Other Value at Risk - Recreation Annual Beach Visitations (2000)

Selected # of Participants # of Days States (millions) (millions)

New Jersey 3.965 40.881 Florida 15.246 177.153 California 12.598 151.429 North Carolina 3.185 27.936 Only Florida, California and Hawaii have more beach days than New Jersey!

Source: Leeworthy, Vernon and Peter Wiley, “Current Participation Patterns in Marine Recreation,” National Survey on Recreation and the Environment 2000, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, November 2001. Annual Value of NJ Beach Visits

$ Value # of Days Annual Value Method per Day (millions) ($Mln, 2007)

Travel Cost $31.451 40.881 $1,286

Contingent $5.36 40.881 $219 Valuation

1. New Jersey estimate : Leeworthy and Wiley, “Recreational Use Value for Island Beach State Park,” Technical Report, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Strategic Environmental Assessments Division, Office of Ocean Resources and Conservation, 1991.

2. Massachusetts estimate: Kline and Swallow, “The Demand for Local Access to Coastal Recreation in Southern New England,” Coastal Management, Vol. 26, Issue 3, July-September 1998. Asset Value of New Jersey Beaches

Annual Value Discount Asset Value Method ($Mln, 2007) Rate ($Mln, 2007)

Travel $1,286 5% $25,720 Cost

Contingent $219 5% $4,380 Valuation

17 North-Central Industrial Counties

CMP Population, North-Central Industrial Counties

County CMP Total CMP Share  About 50% of the population Bergen County 377,601 948,406 39.8% and employment of these Essex County 350,580 808,285 43.4% Hudson County 621,256 691,643 89.8% counties falls in the CMP area Mercer County 174,042 374,733 46.4% Middlesex County 596,849 842,798 70.8% Passaic County 157,854 512,607 30.8%  They account for about 54% of Somerset County 66,734 335,432 19.9% total population in the CMP Union County 203,402 563,892 36.1% area Total 2,548,318 5,077,796 50.2% CMP Municipalities, North-Central Industrial Counties

County CMP Total CMP Share  Counties account for about 57% Bergen County 24 70 34.3% of state employment (2.3 Essex County 3 22 13.6% Hudson County 11 12 91.7% million jobs) Mercer County 2 12 16.7% Middlesex County 12 25 48.0% Passaic County 2 16 12.5% Somerset County 1 21 4.8% Union County 3 21 14.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Total 58 199 29.1% Industry Employment Shares, 2017

Industry Shares 2017, NJ and North-Central Region 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% NJ North-Central 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. North-Central Counties Employment Growth

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.06

1.04

1.02

1

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

0.9 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NJ North-Central

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. North-Central Region Growth by County

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.2

1.15

1.1

1.05

1

0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Bergen Essex Hudson Mercer Middlesex Passaic Somerset Union

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Change, 2001-2017 NJ and North-Central Region

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

-40.0%

-50.0% NJ North-Central

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Location of Marine Transportation Industry

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Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Housing Development – North-Central Region

Building Permits, 2007 15000 10000 5000 0

Single Multi

Building Permits, 2017

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

Single Multi Delaware Bay Counties

CMP Population, Delaware Bay Counties CMP  About 62% of the population of County CMP Total Share these counties falls in the CMP Cumberland County 88,592 152,538 58.1% area, but only about 50% of Salem County 45,802 62,792 72.9% employment Total 134,394 215,330 62.4%

 They account for about 3% of total population in the CMP CMP Municipalities, Delaware Bay Counties area CMP County CMP Total Share

Cumberland County 11 14 78.6%

 Counties account for about 2% Salem County 11 15 73.3%

of state employment (80,000 Total 22 29 75.9% jobs)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Industry Employment Shares, 2017

Industry Shares 2017, NJ and Delaware Bay Region 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% NJ Delaware Bay 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Delaware Bay Counties Employment Growth

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.1

1.08

1.06

1.04

1.02

1

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

0.9 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NJ Delaware Bay

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Change, 2001-2017 NJ and Delaware Bay Region

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

-20.0%

-40.0%

-60.0%

-80.0% NJ Delaware Bay

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Delaware River Counties

CMP Population, Delaware River Counties CMP  About 58% of the population of County CMP Total Share these counties falls in the CMP Burlington County 300,001 448,596 66.9% area and 66% of employment. Camden County 301,547 510,719 59.0% Gloucester County 124,295 292,206 42.5% Total 725,843 1,251,521 58.0%  They account for about 15% of total population in the CMP area CMP Municipalities, Delaware River Counties CMP County CMP Total Share

 Counties account for about 13% Burlington County 27 40 67.5%

of state employment (516,000 Camden County 11 37 29.7%

jobs) Gloucester County 12 24 50%

Total 50 101 49.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Industry Employment Shares, 2017 Industry Shares 2017, NJ and Delaware River Region

18.0%

16.0%

14.0% NJ Delaware River

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Delaware River Counties Employment Growth

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.1

1.08

1.06

1.04

1.02

1

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

0.9 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NJ Delaware River

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. River Region Growth by County

Employment Growth, 2001-2017 1.25

1.2

1.15

1.1

1.05

1

0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Burlington Camden Gloucester

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Change, 2001-2017 NJ and Delaware River Region

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

-20.0%

-40.0%

-60.0% NJ Delaware River

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industrial/Manufacturing Establishments

Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community State Outlook

▪ Slower employment and population growth than the U.S. over the next ten years ▪ Good outlook for 2018 – likely to be stronger than our current forecast due to casino reopenings ▪ Slowing in 2019 ▪ Recession looming in national 2020 forecast

▪ Most NJ growth concentrated in services ▪ Some in transportation/warehousing and retail trade. ▪ Stasis in goods-producing industries