Making Migrations: Population Displacement Strategies in Civil Wars by Adam G. Lichtenheld A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science in the Graduate Division of the University of California, Berkeley Committee in charge: Associate Professor Ron Hassner, Chair Associate Professor Saira Mohamed Associate Professor Leonardo Arriola Associate Professor Aila Matanock Summer 2019 Making Migrations: Population Displacement Strategies in Civil Wars Copyright 2019 by Adam G. Lichtenheld 1 Abstract Making Migrations: Population Displacement Strategies in Civil Wars by Adam G. Lichtenheld Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Berkeley Associate Professor Ron Hassner, Chair Why do armed groups uproot civilians in wartime? This dissertation identifies variation across civil wars in three population displacement strategies – cleansing, depopulation, and forced relocation – and tests different explanations for their use. I develop a new “assortative” theory of displacement, which argues that while some strategies (cleansing) aim to expel undesirable or disloyal populations, others (forced relocation, and perhaps depopulation) seek to identify the undesirables or the disloyal in the first place. When combatants lack information about opponents’ identities and civilians’ loyalties, they can use human mobility to infer wartime sympathies through “guilt by location.” Triggering displacement forces people to send costly and visible signals of loyalty based on whether, and where, they flee. This makes communities more “legible,” enabling combatants to use people’s movements as a continuous indicator of affiliation and allegiance; and to extract rents and recruits from the population. I therefore show that in some cases, displacement is attractive because it offers unique solutions to information and resource problems in civil wars by acting as a sorting mechanism and a force multiplier. To evaluate my theory, I adopt a multi-method, multi-level research design that focuses on displacement by state actors, the primary perpetrators of these methods. I introduce a new dataset of population displacement strategies in 160 civil wars (1945–2008), disaggregated by type, and conduct a series of quantitative tests. The data show that strategic displacement has been much more common in wartime than previously thought. I also find that, consistent with my expectations, different displacement strategies occur in different contexts and appear to follow different logics. Cleansing is more likely in conventional wars, where territorial conquest takes primacy, and when counterinsurgents have access to group-level identifiers that link civilians to an armed group. Forced relocation – the most common displacement strategy – is more likely in irregular wars, where identification problems are most acute, and when counterinsurgents lack access to other group-level heuristics for inferring civilian loyalties. The evidence indicates that cleansing follows a logic of punishment. The results for relocation, however, are consistent with the implications of my assortative logic: it is more likely to be employed by resource-constrained incumbents fighting insurgencies in 2 “illegible” areas – rural, peripheral territories – and it correlates strongly with state efforts to mobilize the population into civilian defense forces. While the cross-national analysis lends indirect support for my arguments, a series of case studies provide direct evidence for the assortative logic. Two in-depth case studies, of civil wars in Uganda and Syria, are based on extensive field research conducted between 2016 and 2019, including hundreds of interviews with perpetrators and victims of displacement. An additional chapter features three shorter case studies of conflicts in Burundi, Vietnam, and Indonesia. As the most comprehensive study of strategic wartime displacement to date, this dissertation challenges some core assumptions about a devastating feature of modern conflict and an increasingly salient issue in world politics. My findings have important implications for research on forced displacement, civil war, and political violence, and can inform policy efforts to prevent, mitigate, and better respond to wartime migrations and their myriad consequences. i For the victims; for the uprooted. ii Contents Contents ii List of Figures iv List of Tables vi 1 Introduction1 1.1 Purpose and Relevance............................... 3 1.2 The Argument in Brief ............................... 8 1.3 Definitions...................................... 10 1.4 Scope Conditions .................................. 17 1.5 What We Know About Wartime Displacement ................. 19 1.6 Research Design................................... 24 2 An Assortative Theory of Displacement 29 2.1 The Sorting Logic of Strategic Displacement................... 32 2.2 The Capturing Logic of Strategic Displacement................. 49 2.3 Alternative Explanations for Strategic Displacement.............. 60 2.4 Conclusion...................................... 64 3 Forced Relocation in Uganda 66 3.1 Rebellions in Uganda, 1986–2006 ......................... 68 3.2 Methods and Data Sources............................. 73 3.3 Evidence for the Assortative Logic of Displacement .............. 77 3.4 Alternative Explanations.............................. 98 3.5 Conclusion......................................108 4 Cross-National Analysis of Wartime Displacement Strategies 110 4.1 Data and Measurement...............................112 4.2 Analysis .......................................126 4.3 Robustness Checks and Additional Tests.....................140 4.4 Conclusion......................................150 iii 5 Comparative Evidence of the Assortative Logic: Burundi, Vietnam, and Indonesia 153 5.1 From Cleansing to Regroupment in Burundi ..................155 5.2 Strategic Hamlets in Vietnam ...........................165 5.3 Relocating the Acehnese in Indonesia.......................175 5.4 Conclusion......................................184 6 Cleansing and Depopulation in Syria 186 6.1 The Syrian Civil War ................................189 6.2 Methods and Data Sources.............................191 6.3 Displacement by Pro-Government Forces ....................195 6.4 Alternative Explanations..............................217 6.5 Conclusion......................................220 7 Conclusion 221 7.1 The Politics of Wartime Displacement ......................222 7.2 Scholarly Implications ...............................227 7.3 Policy Implications .................................231 7.4 Concluding Thoughts................................241 References 242 A Global Trends in Aid 278 B List of Interviews in Uganda 280 C Field Sites in Uganda 287 D Violent Events Data in Uganda 290 D.1 ACLED Data, by Region (Raleigh et al. 2010 and Author) . 291 D.2 UCDP GED Data (Sundberg and Melander 2013) . 293 E Coding Strategic Displacement 297 E.1 Previous Data Collection Efforts..........................298 E.2 SDCC Coding Procedure..............................301 F Robustness Checks for Cross-National Analysis 303 F.1 Binary Logit Results.................................304 G List of Interviews in Syria 324 G.1 List of Interviews in Syria .............................325 H Violent Events Data in Burundi 326 iv List of Figures 1.1 Frequency of Strategic Wartime Displacement by Perpetrator (1945–2008).... 8 1.2 Forced Displacement Framework........................... 13 1.3 A Typology of Strategic Wartime Displacement................... 16 3.1 Internal Displacement in Uganda (1987–2008).................... 73 3.2 Map of Field Research Sites in Uganda........................ 76 3.3 Sketched Logic of IDP Policy.............................. 83 3.4 Settlement Patterns in Northern Uganda....................... 85 3.5 IDP Camp Identification Letter ............................ 87 3.6 UPDF Personnel and Rebel Groups (1987–2008)................... 94 3.7 LRA Violence in Uganda (1990–2008).........................102 3.8 ADF Violence in Uganda (1995–2003).........................103 3.9 Abductions in Uganda (1992–2006)..........................105 4.1 Frequency of Strategic Wartime Displacement by Perpetrator (1945–2008) . 118 4.2 Prevalence of State-induced Displacement Strategies . 120 4.3 Predicted Probability of Strategic Wartime Displacement . 131 4.4 Strategic Wartime Displacement and Mass Killing, by Decade . 134 4.5 Strategic Displacement and Mass Killing (Irregular Wars Only) . 135 4.6 Predicted Probability of Forced Relocation (Irregular Wars Only) . 139 4.7 Incumbent Capacity (Irregular Wars Only) .....................140 5.1 Military Battles and Rebel Attacks in Burundi (1993–2006) . 163 5.2 Civilians Deaths from Rebel and Government Attacks (1993 – 2006) . 164 6.1 Forced Displacement in Syria (2011–2018)......................192 6.2 Scorched Earth Massacres in Syria (2011–2013)...................198 6.3 Monthly Deaths from Violence by Pro-Regime Forces, 2012–2016 . 201 6.4 Deaths due to Violence by Pro-Regime Forces, 2011 – 2018 . 202 6.5 ‘Safety Pass’ Dropped by the Syrian Army......................206 6.6 Population in Syria by Sect...............................214 7.1 Third-Country Resettlements of Refugees, 1985-2017 . 239 v A.1 Total Annual Net Official Development Assistance (ODA), 1960-2016 . 279 A.2 Total Annual Humanitarian Aid, 1970-2016.....................279 D.1 LRA Violence in Uganda (1990-2008), by District..................291