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Monthly World Markets Report

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Monthly World Markets Report INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP MONTHLY WORLD MARKETS REPORT INSIDE THIS ISSUE December 2020 THE HANGOVER FIXED INCOME LIQUID 3 In January, it seemed that little FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO could go wrong for the North ALTERNATIVES 140% American economies. Low CANADA unemployment, inflation, 120% U.S.A. CANADIAN EQUITIES: 3 interest rates, and a confident consumer, suggested the year 100% ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD would end as it began - strongly. INC. 80% The outbreak of COVID- 60% MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. 19 in China and the spread of the virus to the rest of the world has 40% MARKET RETURN DATA 4 left the North American economies looking quite unlike 20% they did in January. The Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. 5 economic damage caused by Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK lockdowns imposed by governments on the free people Source: Bloomberg; CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. of the world may not easily be repaired. To be sure, entrepreneurs have been among the hardest ECONOMIC OUTLOOK hit by the economic downturn caused by the outbreak. With small businesses expected to be a COMPANY DISCLOSURES AND substantial source of economic growth, this may weigh on GDP growth in 2021 and beyond. DISCLAIMERS However, the announcement in November of the development of vaccines for COVID-19, each having demonstrated a success rate of over 90% in clinical trials, has been welcomed by investors. The resulting surge in the financial markets shows how important this has been in helping to CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. 6 restore confidence. However, everything has its price. RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM In response to the COVID-19 lockdowns, federal governments of the world’s countries CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. provided financial support for those sectors of their respective economies that were most severely affected. Whether it was CERB in Canada or the Paycheck Protection Program in the United States, DISCLAIMERS this provided much-needed support to those who had been laid off by their employers and who had no other source of income. This enabled those who had been laid off to pay their bills but it has weakened sovereign balance sheets as deficits have soared. Consider that in Canada prior to 2020, the largest deficit ever posted by the Canadian government was $55.6 billion. This was booked under prime minister Stephen Harper in response to the financial crisis. Due to COVID-19, Canada’s expected deficit for 2020 is $343.1 billion – more than six times that of 2009. For 2021, a deficit of over $250 billion has been projected by the Parliamentary Budget Office. In the U.S., the deficit has reached a record US$3.3 trillion. With President-elect Joe Biden pledging to continue massive spending due to COVID-19, an even higher deficit seems likely next year. Perhaps the recent sharp move up in Canada and the U.S. debt to GDP (a measure used to assess a nation’s creditworthiness) might mean more fiscal restraint, however, this seems unlikely. See Disclosures And Disclaimers at the end of this report for disclosures, Record-low interest rates have made all this government spending possible and few are including potential conflicts of questioning the ability of governments to service their debt should interest rates begin to move interest. Complete research on any back up and eventually normalize at their pre-financial-crisis levels. When the financial crisis equities mentioned in this report is began in 2007, Canadian and U.S. government 10-year bonds yielded 4.2% and 4.6%, respectively, available from your Investment Advisor. and have fallen to respective levels of 0.67% and 0.84%. With governments so highly indebted, a move back to pre-crisis levels or even to half these levels could have serious consequences for Unless otherwise noted, all prices the ability of governments to service their debt. The common belief is that central banks will act quoted in this report are as of the to keep rates low but for how long will they? Already there are those calling for rate hikes in 2021. close of markets on November 24, Consider also that consumer and household debt levels are also extremely high, so higher rates 2020. would also make it harder for the consumer to continue sustaining current purchasing levels. With such high levels of government debt in Canada and the U.S., it seems reasonable to expect that large tax hikes are coming, leaving corporations and consumers with less spending power. So although there are those who look to 2021 as a year that will take us back to where we were in January, the price of 2020’s spending may prove otherwise. So, Canadians should maximize contributions to tax-sheltered accounts including RRSPs, RESPs, and TSFAs to protect portfolios from the hangover that should result from this unprecedented government spending. MICHAEL O’CALLAGHAN, MBA, CFA CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 1 Monthly World Markets Report FIXED INCOME LIQUID ALTERNATIVES Yields are low but that does not dampen the need for income. investable universe or a money market index. In the search for higher yields, no return comes without its The high-water mark is the highest value a fund has reached risks and costs. Liquid alternatives can supplement a portfolio on a total return basis at a previous performance fee valuation with enhanced yields and diversify its risks. Many fixed income date. A high-water mark protects investors from paying portfolio managers are finding good value in credit and find performance fees on returns contributing towards a recovery they are not being well compensated for taking on duration. following a loss. Investors paid performance fees when the Liquid alternatives (or liquid alts) were introduced to the fund appreciated initially and will not have to pay them again Canadian market nearly two years ago with a wide set of following a drawdown in the fund’s value. Only once the fund’s possible investment strategies. Liquid alternatives can use value has surpassed its high-water mark may the portfolio leverage through borrowings, short selling and derivatives to manager begin charging performance fees again. Not all funds manage their risk exposures to a degree unavailable to use high-water marks. conventional mutual funds. It is important to understand how a particular fund calculates Liquid alternative credit strategies the performance fee before investing because not all methodologies are the same. Fee calculations are always Many fixed income liquid alternative funds employ a leveraged described in a fund’s prospectus and included in the long/short credit strategy. Funds may short long-duration management expense ratio (MER). government bonds and take long positions in shorter-duration CI Marret Alternative Absolute Return Bond and Dynamic Credit corporate bonds to increase credit risk while keeping interest Absolute Return II are examples of two liquid alts available in rate risk low. Canada. Fixed income liquid alts may also take long positions in attractively priced credits while taking short positions in CI Marret Alternative expensive credits in an effort to generate alpha without Dynamic Credit Absolute Return increasing credit risk. In a similar strategy, the funds may also Absolute Return II Bond engage in credit arbitrage where they take long and short Invests across North positions in similar issuers or different issues from the same Invests across global American credit, fixed income sectors issuer to take advantage of value dislocations. primarily investment with great flexibility Strategy grade credit and Depending how a portfolio manager utilizes these strategies, to choose its credit keeps duration low the fund may have a low correlation with a traditional fixed quality and duration (0.87 years as of income portfolio but a higher correlation with equities. exposures October 31) A warning on yield figures Inception November 2018 August 2019 Date Fund yields have the potential to mislead investors looking for Current income. A fund’s current yield is commonly calculated as the 2.80% 5.17% most recent distribution divided by the net asset value (NAV) Yield and then annualized. That figure represents the distribution to investors, not the yield generated on the underlying MER 1.15% 1.02% investments. Management 0.80% 0.80% If a portion of the fund’s distribution is return of capital, it is Fee included in the fund’s yield which can make the fund appear Performance 10% 20% to have an artificially high income-generating capability. If the Fee distribution is not reinvested in the fund, the value of the $0.0428 fixed monthly investment will decrease which may reduce the investment’s Distributions Monthly ability to generate income in the future. target Some income-focused funds set a distribution target so clients YTD Return 7.32% 5.06% receive a consistent level of income. The funds companies set YTD Max the target at a rate they believe will be sustainable for the -1.61% -9.66% foreseeable future. With today’s historically low interest Drawdown rates, many funds with distribution targets are relying more Source: Morningstar Direct and respective fund companies . As of heavily on return of capital. October 31, 2020. All in CAD. Series F used. Monthly returns used for Year-to-date (YTD) return. Weekly returns used for YTD max Performance fees drawdown. A performance fee is a fee calculated based on fund returns for a given period. Performance fees on liquid alts are typically between 10% and 20%. A fund normally must outperform a hurdle rate before the portfolio manager can charge its DANIEL GODDARD, CFA performance fee.
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