Tornadogenesis in a Simulated Mesovortex Within a Mesoscale Convective System
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From Improving Tornado Warnings: from Observation to Forecast
Improving Tornado Warnings: from Observation to Forecast John T. Snow Regents’ Professor of Meteorology Dean Emeritus, College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, The University of Oklahoma Major contributions from: Dr. Russel Schneider –NOAA Storm Prediction Center Dr. David Stensrud – NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Dr. Ming Xue –Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma Dr. Lou Wicker –NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Hazards Caucus Alliance Briefing Tornadoes: Understanding how they develop and providing early warning 10:30 am – 11:30 am, Wednesday, 21 July 2010 Senate Capitol Visitors Center 212 Each Year: ~1,500 tornadoes touch down in the United States, causing over 80 deaths, 100s of injuries, and an estimated $1.1 billion in damages Statistics from NOAA Storm Prediction Center Supercell –A long‐lived rotating thunderstorm the primary type of thunderstorm producing strong and violent tornadoes Present Warning System: Warn on Detection • A Warning is the culmination of information developed and distributed over the preceding days sequence of day‐by‐day forecasts identifies an area of high threat •On the day, storm spotters deployed; radars monitor formation, growth of thunderstorms • Appearance of distinct cloud or radar echo features tornado has formed or is about to do so Warning is generated, distributed Present Warning System: Warn on Detection Radar at 2100 CST Radar at 2130 CST with Warning Thunderstorms are monitored using radar A warning is issued based on the detected and -
A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Hurricane Outer Rainband Mesovortices
Presented at the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, May 31 2000 EXAMINING THE PRE-LANDFALL ENVIRONMENT OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN A HURRICANE BONNIE (1998) OUTER RAINBAND 1 2 2 1 Scott M. Spratt , Frank D. Marks , Peter P. Dodge , and David W. Sharp 1 NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Melbourne, FL 2 NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 1. INTRODUCTION Tropical Cyclone (TC) tornado environments have been studied for many decades through composite analyses of proximity soundings (e.g. Novlan and Gray 1974; McCaul 1986). More recently, airborne and ground-based Doppler radar investigations of TC rainband-embedded mesocyclones have advanced the understanding of tornadic cell lifecycles (Black and Marks 1991; Spratt et al. 1997). This paper will document the first known dropwindsonde deployments immediately adjacent to a family of TC outer rainband mesocyclones, and will examine the thermodynamic and wind profiles retrieved from the marine environment. A companion paper (Dodge et al. 2000) discusses dual-Doppler analyses of these mesovortices. On 26 August 1998, TC Bonnie made landfall as a category two hurricane along the North Carolina coast. Prior to landfall, two National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division (HRD) aircraft conducted surveillance missions offshore the Carolina coast. While performing these missions near altitudes of 3.5 and 2.1 km, both aircraft were required to deviate around intense cells within a dominant outer rainband, 165 to 195 km northeast of the TC center. On-board radars detected apparent mini-supercell signatures associated with several of the convective cells along the band. -
Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell Thunderstorms
atmosphere Article Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell Thunderstorms Matthew Van Den Broeke Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA; [email protected] Abstract: Many nontornadic supercell storms have times when they appear to be moving toward tornadogenesis, including the development of a strong low-level vortex, but never end up producing a tornado. These tornadogenesis failure (TGF) episodes can be a substantial challenge to operational meteorologists. In this study, a sample of 32 pre-tornadic and 36 pre-TGF supercells is examined in the 30 min pre-tornadogenesis or pre-TGF period to explore the feasibility of using polarimetric radar metrics to highlight storms with larger tornadogenesis potential in the near-term. Overall the results indicate few strong distinguishers of pre-tornadic storms. Differential reflectivity (ZDR) arc size and intensity were the most promising metrics examined, with ZDR arc size potentially exhibiting large enough differences between the two storm subsets to be operationally useful. Change in the radar metrics leading up to tornadogenesis or TGF did not exhibit large differences, though most findings were consistent with hypotheses based on prior findings in the literature. Keywords: supercell; nowcasting; tornadogenesis failure; polarimetric radar Citation: Van Den Broeke, M. 1. Introduction Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Supercell thunderstorms produce most strong tornadoes in North America, moti- Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell vating study of their radar signatures for the benefit of the operational and research Thunderstorms. Atmosphere 2021, 12, communities. Since the polarimetric upgrade to the national radar network of the United 581. https://doi.org/ States (2011–2013), polarimetric radar signatures of these storms have become well-known, 10.3390/atmos12050581 e.g., [1–5], and many others. -
Tornado Safety Q & A
TORNADO SAFETY Q & A The Prosper Fire Department Office of Emergency Management’s highest priority is ensuring the safety of all Prosper residents during a state of emergency. A tornado is one of the most violent storms that can rip through an area, striking quickly with little to no warning at all. Because the aftermath of a tornado can be devastating, preparing ahead of time is the best way to ensure you and your family’s safety. Please read the following questions about tornado safety, answered by Prosper Emergency Management Coordinator Kent Bauer. Q: During s evere weather, what does the Prosper Fire Department do? A: We monitor the weather alerts sent out by the National Weather Service. Because we are not meteorologists, we do not interpret any sort of storms or any sort of warnings. Instead, we pass along the information we receive from the National Weather Service to our residents through social media, storm sirens and Smart911 Rave weather warnings. Q: What does a Tornado Watch mean? A: Tornadoes are possible. Remain alert for approaching storms. Watch the sky and stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio or television for information. Q: What does a Tornado Warning mean? A: A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar and you need to take shelter immediately. Q: What is the reason for setting off the Outdoor Storm Sirens? A: To alert those who are outdoors that there is a tornado or another major storm event headed Prosper’s way, so seek shelter immediately. I f you are outside and you hear the sirens go off, do not call 9-1-1 to ask questions about the warning. -
Electrical Role for Severe Storm Tornadogenesis (And Modification) R.W
y & W log ea to th a e m r li F C o r Armstrong and Glenn, J Climatol Weather Forecasting 2015, 3:3 f e o c l a a s n t r i http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000139 n u g o J Climatology & Weather Forecasting ISSN: 2332-2594 ReviewResearch Article Article OpenOpen Access Access Electrical Role for Severe Storm Tornadogenesis (and Modification) R.W. Armstrong1* and J.G. Glenn2 1Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA 2Munitions Directorate, Eglin Air Force Base, FL, USA Abstract Damage from severe storms, particularly those involving significant lightning is increasing in the US. and abroad; and, increasingly, focus is on an electrical role for lightning in intra-cloud (IC) tornadogenesis. In the present report, emphasis is given to severe storm observations and especially to model descriptions relating to the subject. Keywords: Tornadogenesis; Severe storms; Electrification; in weather science was submitted in response to solicitation from the Lightning; Cloud seeding National Science Board [16], and a note was published on the need for cooperation between weather modification practitioners and academic Introduction researchers dedicated to ameliorating the consequences of severe weather storms [17]. Need was expressed for interdisciplinary research Benjamin Franklin would be understandably disappointed. Here on the topic relating to that recently touted for research in the broader we are, more than 260 years after first demonstration in Marly-la-Ville, field of meteorological sciences [18]. -
The Lagrange Torando During Vortex2. Part Ii: Photogrammetry Analysis of the Tornado Combined with Dual-Doppler Radar Data
6.3 THE LAGRANGE TORANDO DURING VORTEX2. PART II: PHOTOGRAMMETRY ANALYSIS OF THE TORNADO COMBINED WITH DUAL-DOPPLER RADAR DATA Nolan T. Atkins*, Roger M. Wakimoto#, Anthony McGee*, Rachel Ducharme*, and Joshua Wurman+ *Lyndon State College #National Center for Atmospheric Research +Center for Severe Weather Research Lyndonville, VT 05851 Boulder, CO 80305 Boulder, CO 80305 1. INTRODUCTION studies, however, that have related the velocity and reflectivity features observed in the radar data to Over the years, mobile ground-based and air- the visual characteristics of the condensation fun- borne Doppler radars have collected high-resolu- nel, debris cloud, and attendant surface damage tion data within the hook region of supercell (e.g., Bluestein et al. 1993, 1197, 204, 2007a&b; thunderstorms (e.g., Bluestein et al. 1993, 1997, Wakimoto et al. 2003; Rasmussen and Straka 2004, 2007a&b; Wurman and Gill 2000; Alexander 2007). and Wurman 2005; Wurman et al. 2007b&c). This paper is the second in a series that pre- These studies have revealed details of the low- sents analyses of a tornado that formed near level winds in and around tornadoes along with LaGrange, WY on 5 June 2009 during the Verifica- radar reflectivity features such as weak echo holes tion on the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Exper- and multiple high-reflectivity rings. There are few iment (VORTEX 2). VORTEX 2 (Wurman et al. 5 June, 2009 KCYS 88D 2002 UTC 2102 UTC 2202 UTC dBZ - 0.5° 100 Chugwater 100 50 75 Chugwater 75 330° 25 Goshen Co. 25 km 300° 50 Goshen Co. 25 60° KCYS 30° 30° 50 80 270° 10 25 40 55 dBZ 70 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 ms-1 Fig. -
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & a Brief Look at the 18
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & A Brief Look At The 18 June 2010 Derecho Gino Izzi National Weather Service, Chicago IL Outline • Meteorology 301: Squall lines – Brief review of thunderstorm basics – Squall lines – Squall line tornadoes – Mesovorticies • Storm spotting for squall lines • Brief Case Study of 18 June 2010 Event Thunderstorm Ingredients • Moisture – Gulf of Mexico most common source locally Thunderstorm Ingredients • Lifting Mechanism(s) – Fronts – Jet Streams – “other” boundaries – topography Thunderstorm Ingredients • Instability – Measure of potential for air to accelerate upward – CAPE: common variable used to quantify magnitude of instability < 1000: weak 1000-2000: moderate 2000-4000: strong 4000+: extreme Thunderstorms Thunderstorms • Moisture + Instability + Lift = Thunderstorms • What kind of thunderstorms? – Single Cell – Multicell/Squall Line – Supercells Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? – Short/simplistic answer: CAPE vs Shear Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? (Longer/more complex answer) – Lot we don’t know, other factors (besides CAPE/shear) include • Strength of forcing • Strength of CAP • Shear WRT to boundary • Other stuff Thunderstorm Types • Multi-cell squall lines most common type of severe thunderstorm type locally • Most common type of severe weather is damaging winds • Hail and brief tornadoes can occur with most the intense squall lines Squall Lines & Spotting Squall Line Terminology • Squall Line : a relatively narrow line of thunderstorms, often -
J5J.1 1. Introduction the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex
J5J.1 Keynote Talk: BAMEX Observations of Mesoscale Convective Vortices Christopher A. Davis and Stanley B. Trier National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado 80307 1. Introduction and a Lear jet leased from Weather Modification Inc. (WMI). Mobile Ground- The Bow Echo and Mesoscale based facilities included the Mobile Convective Vortex (MCV) Experiment Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) from (BAMEX) is a study of life cycles of the University of Alabama (Huntsville) mesoscale convective systems using three and three Mobile GPS-Loran Atmospheric aircraft and multiple, mobile ground-based Sounding Systems (MGLASS) from instruments. It represents a combination of NCAR. The MIPS and MGLASS were two related programs to investigate (a) referred to as the ground based observing bow echoes (Fujita, 1978), principally system (GBOS). The two P-3s were each those which produce damaging surface equipped with tail Doppler radars, the winds and last at least 4 hours and (b) Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) being larger convective systems which produce on the NRL P-3. The WMI Lear jet long lived mesoscale convective vortices deployed dropsondes from roughly 12 km (MCVs) (Bartels and Maddox, 1991). The AGL. project was conducted from 20 May to 6 For MCSs, the objective was to sample July, 2003, based at MidAmerica Airport mesoscale wind and temperature fields in Mascoutah, Illinois. A detailed while obtaining high-resolution snapshots overview of the project, including of convection structures, especially those preliminary results appears in Davis et al. (2004). The reader wishing to view processed BAMEX data should visit http://www.joss.ucar.edu/bamex/catalog/. In this keynote address, I will focus on the study of MCVs, based particularly observations from airborne Doppler radar and dropsondes and wind profilers. -
Delayed Tornadogenesis Within New York State Severe Storms Article
Wunsch, M. S. and M. M. French, 2020: Delayed tornadogenesis within New York State severe storms. J. Operational Meteor., 8 (6), 79-92, doi: https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2020.0806. Article Delayed Tornadogenesis Within New York State Severe Storms MATTHEW S. WUNSCH NOAA/National Weather Service, Upton, NY, and School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY MICHAEL M. FRENCH School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY (Manuscript received 11 June 2019; review completed 21 October 2019) ABSTRACT Past observational research into tornadoes in the northeast United States (NEUS) has focused on integrated case studies of storm evolution or common supportive environmental conditions. A repeated theme in the former studies is the influence that the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys in New York State (NYS) may have on conditions supportive of tornado formation. Recent work regarding the latter has provided evidence that environments in these locations may indeed be more supportive of tornadoes than elsewhere in the NEUS. In this study, Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler data from 2008 to 2017 are used to investigate severe storm life cycles in NYS. Observed tornadic and non-tornadic severe cases were analyzed and compared to determine spatial and temporal differences in convective initiation (CI) points and severe event occurrence objectively within the storm paths. We find additional observational evidence supporting the hypothesis the Mohawk and Hudson Valley regions in NYS favor the occurrence of tornadogenesis: the substantially longer time it takes for storms that initiate in western NYS and Pennsylvania to become tornadic compared to storms that initiate in either central or eastern NYS. -
Downloaded 09/30/21 06:43 PM UTC JUNE 1996 MONTEVERDI and JOHNSON 247
246 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 11 A Supercell Thunderstorm with Hook Echo in the San Joaquin Valley, California JOHN P. MONTEVERDI Department of Geosciences, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, California STEVE JOHNSON Association of Central California Weather Observers, Fresno, California (Manuscript received 30 January 1995, in ®nal form 9 February 1996) ABSTRACT This study documents a damaging supercell thunderstorm that occurred in California's San Joaquin Valley on 5 March 1994. The storm formed in a ``cold sector'' environment similar to that documented for several other recent Sacramento Valley severe thunderstorm events. Analyses of hourly subsynoptic surface and radar data suggested that two thunderstorms with divergent paths developed from an initial echo that had formed just east of the San Francisco Bay region. The southern storm became severe as it ingested warmer, moister boundary layer air in the south-central San Joaquin Valley. A well-developed hook echo with a 63-dBZ core was observed by a privately owned 5-cm radar as the storm passed through the Fresno area. Buoyancy parameters and ho- dograph characteristics were obtained both for estimated conditions for Fresno [on the basis of a modi®ed morning Oakland (OAK) sounding] and for the actual storm environment (on the basis of a radiosonde launched from Lemoore Naval Air Station at about the time of the storm's passage through the Fresno area). Both the estimated and actual hodographs essentially were straight and suggested storm splitting. Although the actual CAPE was similar to that which was estimated, the observed magnitude of the low-level shear was considerably greater than the estimate. -
Meteorology – Lecture 19
Meteorology – Lecture 19 Robert Fovell [email protected] 1 Important notes • These slides show some figures and videos prepared by Robert G. Fovell (RGF) for his “Meteorology” course, published by The Great Courses (TGC). Unless otherwise identified, they were created by RGF. • In some cases, the figures employed in the course video are different from what I present here, but these were the figures I provided to TGC at the time the course was taped. • These figures are intended to supplement the videos, in order to facilitate understanding of the concepts discussed in the course. These slide shows cannot, and are not intended to, replace the course itself and are not expected to be understandable in isolation. • Accordingly, these presentations do not represent a summary of each lecture, and neither do they contain each lecture’s full content. 2 Animations linked in the PowerPoint version of these slides may also be found here: http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/fovell/meteo/ 3 Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and drylines 4 This map shows a dryline that formed in Texas during April 2000. The dryline is indicated by unfilled half-circles in orange, pointing at the more moist air. We see little T contrast but very large TD change. Dew points drop from 68F to 29F -- huge decrease in humidity 5 Animation 6 Supercell thunderstorms 7 The secret ingredient for supercells is large amounts of vertical wind shear. CAPE is necessary but sufficient shear is essential. It is shear that makes the difference between an ordinary multicellular thunderstorm and the rotating supercell. The shear implies rotation.