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Redrawing the Maps in Kashmir. New Geopolitical Realities in the Conflict

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Redrawing the Maps in Kashmir. New Geopolitical Realities in the Conflict NO. 52 NOVEMBER 2020 Introduction Redrawing the Maps in Kashmir New Geopolitical Realities in the Conflict between China, India, and Pakistan Christian Wagner and Angela Stanzel The political geography of Kashmir has changed radically in recent months. The start- ing point was the Indian government’s decision on 5 August 2019 to divide the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) into two Union territories. In response, Islamabad pub- lished a map on 4 August 2020 showing all of Kashmir as part of Pakistan. At the end of September 2020, the Chinese government terminated the status quo with India in the Ladakh/Aksai Chin region. This indicates a new phase in the conflict over Kash- mir, in which China and Pakistan could work more closely together. In addition, the conflict is being expanded to include a new geopolitical dimension because, for China, the dispute with India is now also part of the struggle with the United States over the future distribution of power in the Indo-Pacific. The territorial affiliation of the former J&K. When tribal warriors from Pakistan princely state of J&K has so far been the invaded, with support from Pakistani of- subject of two largely independent con- ficers, the Hindu Maharaja of J&K turned flicts: (1) the well-known dispute between to the Indian government for military India and Pakistan; (2) the less well-known assistance. At the end of October 1947, dispute between India and China over the the princely state joined the Indian Union, demarcation of their approximately 3,500- which, in return, sent troops to support kilometre-long border, which also affects the Maharaja. The fighting against the Kashmir. Recent developments could lead tribal warriors developed into the first Indo- to the two previously separate conflicts Pakistani War, which ended in January becoming more intertwined in the future. 1949 with an armistice. Since then, the for- mer princely state has been divided into two parts, one Indian and one Pakistani. The Indo-Pakistani Conflict Kashmir has a high symbolic value for over Kashmir India and Pakistan in the context of their respective conceptions of the state. Pakistan, Following the independence of British India which was founded as a state for the Mus- and the creation of India and Pakistan in lims of British India, claimed Kashmir – August 1947, a number of princely states with its majority Muslim population – as initially remained independent, including one of its parts. For India, Kashmir became a symbol of the secularism and openness Pakistan continued to try to internation- of the new state to all religious commu- alise the Kashmir issue, for example by pro- nities. voking regional crises such as the Kargil The ongoing Kashmir conflict between War in 1999, by having the Pakistani army India and Pakistan can be divided into two and intelligence agencies support terrorist major phases. The first phase, from 1947 groups that carried out attacks in the Indian to 1972, saw the internationalisation of the part of Kashmir, and by denouncing the dispute. Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal human rights violations of Indian security Nehru brought the conflict before the United forces in Kashmir in international forums. Nations (UN) and proposed a referendum to The international community gradually decide whether the territory should belong moved away from the UN resolutions. All to India or Pakistan. Since 1948, the UN Security Council veto powers repeatedly Security Council has adopted a number called for a bilateral solution to the conflict. of resolutions concerning the conflict. The In December 2003, Pakistan’s president, Per- tenor of these resolutions is that, firstly, all vez Musharraf, also distanced himself from Pakistani troops must withdraw from J&K. the UN resolutions, paving the way for the Secondly, an interim administration, assisted so-called composite dialogue with India. In by Indian troops, should be set up. Thirdly, 2007, the two sides agreed on a compromise this administration would have to prepare a on the Kashmir issue that has never been referendum to be held across J&K. Kashmir’s made public, essentially enshrining the sta- independence was not provided for in the tus quo. In 2008, the terrorist group Lashkar- resolutions and is rejected by India and Paki- e-Toiba (LeT), supported by Pakistan’s Inter- stan. China did not become a member of the Services Intelligence (ISI), carried out an Security Council until 1971 and therefore attack in Mumbai, which brought an end did not participate in the UN resolutions. to the dialogue. In 1948, the United Nations Commission The different positions of India and Paki- for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) was estab- stan are also reflected in the official maps. lished to settle the conflict and monitor the Since India insists that the whole of Kash- ceasefire in force since 1949. In 1951, the mir joined the Union in October 1947, In- United Nations Military Observer Group in dian maps therefore show the whole terri- India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) took over tory of the former princely state as Indian this task. Until the 1960s, Security Council territory. Because J&K has a border with veto powers such as the United States, the Afghanistan in the north, India also sees United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union made itself as a direct neighbour of Afghanistan. various unsuccessful attempts at mediation. Pakistan, on the other hand, saw the whole The second phase brought a bilateralisa- of J&K as a disputed territory – according tion of the conflict. It began with the Simla to the terms of the UN resolutions – whose Agreement of 1972, which followed the status would only be decided in a referen- third war between India and Pakistan in dum. Therefore, Pakistani maps have not 1971, in which East Pakistan was split off depicted Kashmir as part of its own terri- and Bangladesh was founded. At that time, tory, even though the regions Gilgit-Balti- Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi failed stan (GB) and the formally independent to take advantage of Pakistan’s military state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) are defeat and achieve a lasting solution to de facto ruled by Islamabad. the Kashmir issue. Both states agreed in the Simla Agreement to deal bilaterally with outstanding issues and to establish a new The Indo-Chinese Conflict in Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. India sub- Kashmir sequently suspended its cooperation with UNMOGIP, which continues to monitor the From the international perspective, “Kash- ceasefire along the LoC. mir” is synonymous with the conflict between SWP Comment 52 November 2020 2 Map 1 Source: Barthi Jain, “Govt Releases New Political Map of India Showing UTs of J&K, Ladakh”, Times of India (online), 2 November 2019, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-releases-new-political-map-of-india-showing-uts-of-jk-ladakh/articleshow/71867468.cms India and Pakistan. Since the late 1950s, how- back into focus. The two countries set up, ever, the People’s Republic of China has inter alia, a joint working group to demar- also been an actor in the dispute over the ter- cate the border and appointed special ritorial legacy of the former princely state envoys. Since then, India and China have – a fact that has received little attention. concluded a number of agreements (in India and China are separated by the 1993, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2012, and in 2013) longest disputed border in the world, at to increase stability in the border region around 3,500 kilometres. In the Himalayan and reduce tensions through confidence- region, it follows the colonial McMahon building measures. The 1993 agreement Line and is particularly controversial in established the current Line of Actual Con- Kashmir and north-east India. In the late trol (LAC), which is more of a space of 1950s, China built a permanent road to mutually accepted patrol routes and mili- Tibet through the Aksai Chin region in Kash- tary posts rather than a “line”. mir. In 1959, Chinese Prime Minister Zhou The political changes reflected in the Enlai proposed an exchange of territory. new maps and territorial claims since the This would have given China the Aksai summer of 2019 seem to herald a new Chin region in exchange for giving up its phase in the dispute over Kashmir. territorial claims in north-eastern India, now the state of Arunachal Pradesh. How- ever, the Indian government rejected the The “Old” Position of India proposal. After India’s military defeat in the border war of 1962, both sides broke The point of departure for the new conflict off diplomatic relations, leaving the course dynamics was the Indian government’s of the border unresolved. decision on 5 August 2019 to divide the Following their political rapprochement state of Jammu & Kashmir into the two after 1988, the question of borders came Union territories of J&K and Ladakh. The SWP Comment 52 November 2020 3 political leadership of the majority Muslim tier undefined”. This corresponded to the state of J&K had been granted a number of position agreed by the two states in the privileges upon accession, which later led 1963 treaty. Earlier maps, on the other hand, to repeated conflicts between the govern- often graphically separated Kashmir – in- ment in New Delhi and the state govern- cluding the GB and AJK regions – from ment in Srinagar. Kashmir’s special status Pakistani territory to indicate that Kashmir had been a thorn in the side of the Hindu is a disputed territory as defined by UN nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for resolutions. many years. With its decision, the govern- Pakistan has now also changed the ment of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was nomenclature for the Indian part of Kash- fulfilling one of its election promises.
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