PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences RESEARCH ARTICLE Data-Constrained Projections of Methane Fluxes 10.1002/2017JG003932 in a Northern Minnesota Peatland in Response Key Points: to Elevated CO2 and Warming • Using a data-model fusion approach, we constrained parameters and Shuang Ma1 , Jiang Jiang2,3, Yuanyuan Huang3,4, Zheng Shi3 , Rachel M. Wilson5 , fi quanti ed uncertainties of CH4 6 7 6 1,8 emission forecast Daniel Ricciuto , Stephen D. Sebestyen , Paul J. Hanson , and Yiqi Luo • Both warming and elevated air CO2 1 concentrations have a stimulating Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, 2 3 effect on CH4 emission AZ, USA, Department of Soil and Water Conservation, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China, Department of • The uncertainty in plant-mediated Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA, 4Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de transportation and ebullition l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 5Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, increased under warming USA, 6Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA, 7U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Center for Research on Ecosystem Change, Grand Rapids, MN, USA, 8Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Correspondence to: Y. Luo,
[email protected] Abstract Large uncertainties exist in predicting responses of wetland methane (CH4) fluxes to future climate change. However, sources of the uncertainty have not been clearly identified despite the fact Citation: that methane production and emission processes have been extensively explored. In this study, we took Ma, S., Jiang, J., Huang, Y., Shi, Z., advantage of manual CH4 flux measurements under ambient environment from 2011 to 2014 at the … Wilson, R.