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Analysis of Multiresource Production for National Assessments and Appraisals

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Analysis of Multiresource Production for National Assessments and Appraisals United States Department of Analysis of Agriculture Multiresource Production Forest Service for National Assessments Rocky Mountain Forest and Range and Ap]praisals Experiment Station L.A. Joyce Fort Collins, B. McKinnon Colorado 80526 J. G. Hof T. W. Hoekstra General Technical Report RM-101 1 Management prescription C I Management prescription B Management prescription A Ecosystem I Adjacent ecosystems Joint resource outputs resulting from Prescription A Abstract This report gives an overview of the analytical methods used in in­ tegrated (multidisciplinary, multiresource, and multilevel) land management production analyses. The ecological and economic theory underlying both simulation and optimization methods are also reviewed. USDA Forest Service August 1983 General Technical Report RM-101 Analysis of Multiresource Production for National Assessments and Appraisals L. A. Joyce, Range Scientist B. McKinnon, Forest Economist J. G. Hof, Research Forester and T. W. Hoekstra, Research Wildlife Biologist Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station1 'Headquarters is in Fort Collins, in cooperation with Colorado State University. Contents Page MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS . 1 INTRODUCTION . 1 ECOLOGICAL ANALYSES OF PRODUCTION . 2 Ecosystem Theory . 2 Ecosystem Approaches . 2 Ecosystem Attributes . 3 Environmental Indexes . 4 Interdisciplinary Team Approach . 6 Simulation Modeling . 6 Model Building . 6 Applications of Simulation Models . 7 Summary . 7 ECONOMIC ANALYSES OF PRODUCTION . 7 Economic Theory of Production . 7 Single Output Production . 8 Multiple Outputs and Joint Production . 8 Mathematical Programming . 9 Linear Programming . 9 Linear Programming and Production Theory . 10 History of Linear Programming Applications . 11 Early Applications of Linear Programming to Forestry Problems . 11 Goal Programming . 11 INTEGRA TED APPROACHES TO ANALYZING THE PRODUCTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES . 12 Linear Programming Multiresource Management Problems . 12 Multiresource Models . 13 The CARD-USDA Agricultural LP Model . 13 RCS-RAA . 13 FREPAS . 14 NIMRUM . 15 FORPLAN... .. .. .. .. .. ...... .. 16 CONCLUSIONS . 17 LITERATURE CITED . 17 Analysis of Multiresource Production for National Assessments and Appraisals L. A. Joyce, B. McKinnon, J. G. Hof, T. W. Hoekstra, and J. Whelan MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS There is no commonly accepted, ecological technique to analyze the simultaneous production of natural The dominant approach in integrated resource pro­ resources applicable in all ecosystems. Production duction analysis is optimization modeling, specifically capability/response information must be determined for multiresource linear programming modeling. Tradeoffs the optimization models quantitatively for each between alternative resource production strategies can resource, with the integration being qualitative. Ad­ be examined under a variety of decision criteria in these vances in ecological research are increasing the degree models. The theoretical basis for this approach is well­ to which the production capability/response relation­ founded in the economic theory of production. The suc­ ship can be quantified. Resource analysts must select cessful use of these models presumes the availability of the appropriate analytical technique for their specific benefit/cost information from supply/demand models, management problems. and the availability of production capability/response information from ecological models. Because this review The recent work of Wong (1980) in hierarchial model­ focuses only on the production side of integrated re­ ing suggests promising ways to include multilevel con­ source analysis, it does not consider the availability of siderations into integrated resource production benefit/cost information. analyses. INTRODUCTION with the requirements of the Renewable Resource Research Act, Cooperative Forestry Assistance Act, and National assessments of forests, range lands, agri­ the Public Rangelands Improvement Act. cultural lands, and associated waters of the United Natural resource outputs, such as timber, wildlife, States are required by law. These assessments must be etc., can be analyzed in several different frameworks. multidisciplinary, multiresource, and multilevel. This Resource outputs can be examined functionally in terms report is an overview of the analytical techniques used of timber, range, wildlife, etc., or they can be examined in integrated land management analyses, where inte­ in a multiresource context. They can be evaluated in grated includes multidisciplinary, multiresource, and ecological terms, economic terms, or sociological terms. multilevel considerations. Resource outputs can be analyzed at the level of the Assessments, appraisals, and inventories are re­ forest, the region, or the nation. Current production of quired by a number of laws. An assessment of renew­ resource outputs can be assessed, and projected trends able resources on forests and rangelands is required by of the current production can be made, or alternatives the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Plan­ for future production possibilities can be projected. ning Act of 1974 (RPA)2 as amended by the National Analytical techniques have been developed to inte­ Forest Management Act of 1976 (NFMA)3. Appraisals of grate these different tasks specified by law and these the soil, water, and related resources are required by different analytical frameworks. Optimization models the Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act of 1977 are one method used to integrate multiresource, multi­ (RCA}'. Adequate inventories and documentation for disciplinary, and future-oriented considerations. These development of policies and management of the nation's optimization models require as input predictions about federal lands are required by the Federal Land Policy future conditions, which are developed from ecological and Management Act of 1976 (FLPMA)5• The Multiple and economic simulation models. Specifically, supply/ Use-Sustained Yield Act of 1960 (MU-SY)8 requires joint demand models can provide benefit/cost (economic) in­ consideration of the major outputs from the national formation, and ecological analyses can provide produc­ forests. Accounting for the environmental impact of tion capability/response information. Social analysis management is required by the National Environmental models can predict the social impacts of the solutions Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA)7. The RPA, as amended by the given by optimization models. NFMA, requires that these assessments be coordinated Optimization models are the dominant integrated analytical technique, because they provide a framework •Public Law 93-378. United States Statutes at Large. Volume 88, for a quantitative analysis of resource production in an p. 476 (Pub. L. No. 93-378, 88 Stat. 476). economic and biological environment. Other integrated •Pub. L. No. 94-588, 90 Stat. 2949. approaches have not provided such a framework for in­ •Pub. L. No. 95-192, 91 Stat. 1407. tegrating inputs from ecological, economic, and social "Pub. L. No. 94-579, 90 Stat. 2743. '74 Stat 215, as amended; 16 U.S.C. 528-531. analyses that is consistent with the currently accepted 'Pub. L. No. 91-190, 83 Stat. 852. perspectives in ecology, economics, and social analysis. This report focuses on the production or supply side predicting the production of natural resources have gen­ of integrated resource analysis. The theory underlying erally focused on single resource outputs (Alig et al. the ecological and economic analyses is -reviewed first. 1983, Hawkes et al. 1983, and Mitchell 1983). This presentation of ecological analyses reflects the Analysis of joint production using an ecosystem ap­ state-of-the-art in its concentration on those theoretical proach to natural resource management is relatively re­ approaches which have been applied in a limited cent (Van Dyne 1969), and quantitative techniques are number of cases. There is no commonly accepted ecolog­ in early stages of development. Progress in this area has ical technique to analyze the simultaneous production of been hampered by insufficient and inadequate data, and natural resources in an ecosystem. In contrast, there by lack of ecological theory. Long-term records of are standard analytical techniques to analyze the pro­ ecosystem response to management under controlled duction of natural resources in an economic framework. conditions are rare. Although advances in ecological These techniques have been expanded to analyze multi­ theory continue to be made, there is no single, unifying resource production. These multiresource optimization theory about ecosystem structure and function that modeling techniques are reviewed last, and include a could be applied to all ecosystems. review of those techniques which attempt to include This review focuses on those theoretical ecological multilevel considerations. analyses which have been used to examine the impact of management. Different approaches in ecological research have increased understanding of ecosystem ECOLOGICAL ANALYSES OF PRODUCTION functioning, and this understanding has been used to ex­ amine the impact of management on the ecosystem's Land management activities affect the structure and productive capacity. Ecosystem-level models, such as function of an ecosystem. Changes in the ecosystem the large-scale simulation models of the International cause changes in resource outputs (fig. 1). Analytical Biological Program, attempt to quantify all pertinent techniques predicting single resource production
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