NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT Project No: 51946

RETAIL & COMMERCIAL Date: June 2021

LAND ASSESSMENT Client: New Plymouth District Council

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SCHEDULE

Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader

51946.5 June 2021 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne

DISCLAIMER

This document has been completed, and services rendered at the request of, and for the purposes of New Plymouth District Council only.

Property Economics has taken every care to ensure the correctness and reliability of all the information, forecasts and opinions contained in this report. All data utilised in this report has been obtained by what Property Economics consider to be credible sources, and Property Economics has no reason to doubt its accuracy.

Property Economics shall not be liable for any

made in reliance of any report by Property Economics. It is the responsibility of all parties acting on information contained in this report to make their own enquiries to verify correctness. Front cover image source: Stuff.co.nz

COPYRIGHT

© 2021 Property Economics Limited. All rights reserved.

CONTACT DETAILS

Tim Heath

Mob: 021 557713

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.propertyeconomics.co.nz

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ...... 7

1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ...... 7

1.2. INFORMATION SOURCES ...... 8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 10

RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS ...... 13

3.1. COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT ...... 13

3.2. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS ...... 15

3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION ...... 17

3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES AND CENTRES ...... 18

3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS ...... 19

3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS ...... 19

NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET ...... 22

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ...... 23

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH ...... 24

RETAIL DEMAND AND SUSTAINABLE GFA ...... 27

7.1. RETAIL GROWTH MODEL ...... 27

7.2. RETAIL EXPENDITURE ...... 31

7.3. SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST ...... 32

CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY ...... 34

NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT SPENDING PATTERNS ...... 39

9.1. DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPEND ...... 40

9.2. ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPEND ...... 41

9.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS ...... 43

SUPPLY AND DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL ...... 45

CONVENIENCE CENTRE OVERVIEW ...... 46

11.1. BELL BLOCK ...... 48

11.2. FITZROY ...... 49

11.3. HURDON ...... 50

11.4. INGLEWOOD ...... 51

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.5. MERRILANDS ...... 52

11.6. MOTUROA ...... 53

11.7. AKURA ...... 54

11.8. KATO ...... 55

11.9. SPOTSWOOD ...... 56

11.10. VOGELTOWN ...... 57

11.11. WAITARA ...... 59

11.12. WESTOWN ...... 60

11.13. WOODLEIGH ...... 61

NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ...... 62

12.1. NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ...... 63

12.2. DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT ...... 65

COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ...... 67

13.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ...... 68

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AGGOMERATED COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY ...... 70

14.1. IMPROVED CENTRE AMENITY ...... 70

14.2. IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY ...... 71

14.3. IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE EFFICIENCY ...... 71

14.4. TRANSPORT EFFICIENCIES ...... 72

14.5. INCREASED DEVELOPMENT IMPETUS ...... 73

RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 74

15.1. RETAIL ...... 74

15.2. INDUSTRIAL ...... 75

APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ...... 76

APPENDIX 2: BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS ...... 79

APPENDIX 3: CONVENIENCE RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY ...... 81

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: NEW PLYMOUTH POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS (2020 2053) ...... 26

TABLE 2: ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE GENERATED NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ($M) ...... 31

TABLE 3: RETAIL STORE AUDIT COMPARISON (2016 & 2021) NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ...... 35

TABLE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT RETAIL STORE SIZE BY RETAIL CLASSIFICATION APRIL 2016 ...... 36

TABLE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT BY CENTRE (2016) ...... 37

TABLE 6: RETAIL STORE AUDIT COMPARISON (2016 & 2021) NEW PLYMOUTH CBD ...... 38

TABLE 7: DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPEND IN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (EXCL. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT) ...... 41

TABLE 8: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPEND IN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (EXCL. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT) ...... 42

TABLE 9: RETAIL CENTRE GFA SUPPLY / DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL ...... 45

TABLE 10: COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE AND LAND REQUIREMENTS IN NEW PLYMOUTH (2020-2053) ...... 69

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: MONTHLY ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS RETAIL SALES, $M (FEB 2019 JAN 2021) ...... 13

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS PER MONTH (MILLIONS) ...... 14

FIGURE 3: PERCENTAGE SHARE OF ONLINE RETAIL SALES FROM TOTAL RETAIL SALES...... 15

FIGURE 4: ONLINE RETIAL SALES AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES ...... 17

FIGURE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH CORE ECONOMIC MARKET NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ...... 22

FIGURE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2013 2053) ...... 25

FIGURE 7: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS (2013 203) ...... 26

FIGURE 8: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL GROWTH MODEL OUTLINE...... 27

FIGURE 9: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETIAL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR ($M) ...... 32

FIGURE 10: SUSTAINABLE RETAIL GFA WITHIN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (SQM) ...... 33

FIGURE 11: DESTINATION OF SPEND GENERATED WITHIN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ...... 40

FIGURE 12: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPENDING WITHIN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ...... 42

FIGURE 13: NET RETAIL FLOWS BY RETAIL SECTOR ...... 43

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LIST OF TABLES

FIGURE 14: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES DISTRICT ...... 47

FIGURE 15: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES CITY ...... 47

FIGURE 16: BELL BLOCK CONVENIENCE ...... 48

FIGURE 17: FITZROY CONVENIENCE ...... 49

FIGURE 18: HURDON CONVENIENCE ...... 50

FIGURE 19: INGELWOOD CONVENIENCE ...... 51

FIGURE 20: MERRILANDS CONVENIENCE ...... 52

FIGURE 21: MOTUROA CONVENIENCE ...... 53

...... 54

...... 55

FIGURE 24: SPOTSWOOD CONVENIENCE ...... 56

FIGURE 25: VOGELTOWN CONVENIENCE ...... 57

FIGURE 26: WAITARA CONVENIENCE ...... 59

FIGURE 27: WESTOWN CONVENIENCE ...... 60

FIGURE 28: WOODLEIGH CONVENIENCE ...... 61

FIGURE 29: NEW PLYMOUTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR ...... 62

FIGURE 30: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EXTENT ...... 63

FIGURE 31: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 2020)...... 64

FIGURE 32: PROPORTION OF CBD EMPLOYMENT TO NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (2000 2020) ...... 65

FIGURE 33: DISTRIBUTION OF NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL AND RETAIL EMPLOYMENT (2020) ...... 66

FIGURE 34: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN NPD (2018 2053)...... 68

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INTRODUCTION

Property Economics has been engaged by New Plymouth District Council (NPDC) to undertake an update of our earlier retail economic assessments (2016, 2018) of the New Plymouth retail centre network and commercial market (current and future), with a specific focus on the Central Business District (CBD) / City Centre.

This analysis will provide robust base data and economic enquiry that will assist in understanding the core market that New Plymouth operates in, both currently and over the tion of the New Plymouth District (NPD) market, identify which activities and sectors are critical to its functionality and future performance, and highlight emerging trends in the retail and commercial markets that will influence how the market operates in the future.

Furthermore, this report will assess movements in retail expenditure flows, quantify future growth in the market, and identify opportunities and potential for New Plymouth within the wider commercial centre network.

This economic research and analysis is designed to assist NPDC in the formulation of the most appropriate strategic direction for commercial activity in the district in respect of management of commercial development and growth, and provide a justified basis for any appropriate policy response in the Notified the move towards an increasingly efficient and competitive network, and the aspirations of the community.

1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

The main objectives of this report are to:

• Identify some of the key retail trends occurring in the market (both nationally and internationally) that will have an influence on store formats, retail environments and how goods and services are delivered to the market.

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• Delineate and the location of the CBD within the surrounding commercial centre network, from both a localised and wider perspective.

• Quantify the population and household base of New Plymouth and forecast the growth of these characteristics over the projected period to 2053.

• Provide a detailed profile of the key economic and social demographics of NPD to assist profile and compared this to the wider region and National profile.

• economic market within the relevant retail sectors, and project this out to 2053. This will quantify the growth and level of demand the market is projected to generate on an annualised basis in NZD terms.

• Determine the amount of retail floor space that can be sustained by the core market in the relevant retail sectors, both currently and over the assessed forecast horizon. • Undertake a current retail audit of the key centres in NPD to accurately determine the

and composition of these economic hubs. This retail audit will also identify the current

convenience network. • Highlight current retail shopping patterns of the district consumers and identify net retail expenditure position of the core market (i.e. retail inflow into New Plymouth offset against retail outflows).

• Identify the commercial implications of market growth and net expenditure flows.

• Assess other commercial (non-retail) sector trends in New Plymouth and forecast growth and land requirements out to 2053.

• Provide incisive and pertinent recommendations based on the extant factual basis demonstrated in the proceeding section.

1.2. INFORMATION SOURCES

Information and data have been obtained from a variety of sources and publications Property Economics consider to be reliable and credible including:

• Census of Population and Dwellings 2006, 2013 & 2018 Stats NZ

• Household and Population Projections Stats NZ

• Population Estimates NPDC

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• Household Economic Survey Stats NZ

• Retail Trade Survey Stats NZ

• Tourism Satellite Account Stats NZ

• Business Frame Employment Data Stats NZ

• New Plymouth Retail Audit 2016 Property Economics

• New Plymouth Retail Survey 2020 (Store Count) NPDC

• New Plymouth City Centre Vacancy Audit 2021 (GFA) Property Economics

• MarketView Retail Transaction Data MarketView

• Satellite Imagery Google

• Topographic Maps ESRI

• Online Retail Sales Data Datamine

• Statistical Area Boundaries (Meshblocks, SA1s, SA2s, TAs, Regional Councils, etc.) Stats NZ

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New Plymouth District has a current estimated population base of 86,000 people and approximately 33,800 households. The NPD population is forecast to grow 23% over the next 33 years to around 106,000 people by 2053 under the adopted NPDC growth scenario.

NPD is currently generating around $875m of retail expenditure per annum across an estimated 600 retail stores encompassing almost 160,000sqm GFA. Speciality stores represent the core of retail offer and are crucial store types for the d centres moving forward if its retail provision is to continue to play (and improve) its role and function successfully. LFR cation of these moving forward is important to ensure existing centres are not unduly undermined by changed shopper

There is currently adequate retail provision within New Plymouth District at present based on current sustainable demand levels, and the market is able to sustain additional retail GFA in the future as market growth occurs. This does not necessarily imply a need for a significant level of additional retail in the district, particularly over the life of this District Plan) as the current high vacancy rate (12%) within the CBD implies a significant level of unused capacity. Further, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have not been fully realised and it would be prudent to manage retail GFA growth and focus additional activity to the existing centre network until retail vacancies return to more acceptable market levels (3-7%).

New Plymouth has a net retail spend inflow to the district overall. The sectors with the highest net inflow are Furniture, floor coverings and textiles (net 13%), and Department stores (net 11%), though this does not necessarily mean the contribute the most to the total net retail inflow. The only retail sector with a net outflow is Liquor retailing (net -4%) which is likely due to large numbers of New Plymouth residents spending money on liquor on holiday. This represents a market opportunity for improved provision and performance.

The largest destination of New Plymouth resident spend is Auckland, where 4% of retail spend gene retail economy is the remainder of the Taranaki region (South Taranaki District and Stratford District).

Retail and commercial sector trends have also been assessed geospatially over time to evaluate the performance of the CBD and other centres within the d experiencing net positive growth in retail activity, with employment growth of 19% since 2000, equivalent to around 536 more retail employees. Despite showing positive growth, there has been retail activity leakage away from the CBD. The leakage of retail employment signals lower

centres in the district have seen significantly slower growth the district wide growth of 39% in retail employment from 2000-2020.

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A similar trend can be observed with the commercial sector. T employment, which has increased 25% since 2000, equivalent to around 1,100 more commercial employees. This trend is promising, as a previous Property Economic report found a decline in Commercial and only a marginal increase in Retail employment within the CBD. Part of this turn around is Stats NZ updating historic employment estimates and a recent uptick in

Outside of centre activity has also experienced significant expansions from 2000-2020, with growth in both retail (71%) and commercial (91%) employment. Interestingly, this suggests that not only is retail and commercial activity leaking from the CBD core and spreading to other centres in the district, but also to areas located outside of commercial centres all together. This requires a policy response from Council to address this concerning trend.

of the CBD primarily focus on servicing the convenience retail and commercial / professional requirements of the market. Future retail requirements for many of these centres can be comfortably met within the current provision, however Fitzroy, Bell Block, Merrilands, Spotswood and Vogeltown have been identified as centres that can support increased convenience retail to accommodate future demand. Additional convenience retail in these nodes will go some ways in deferring the need for new retail nodes and maintain the primacy of the CBD in the hierarchy of retail / commercial centres.

Within New Plymouth District centre retail supply is broadly equal to current sustainable levels of retail GFA. However, the issue to address in New Plymouth is quality rather than quantity of retail, and policy settings should focus on improving the former over the life of the PDP rather than delivering the latter. Growth is more appropriately channelled into improving the health, amenity and vitality of existing retail centres GFA with general improvement in the quality and offering of existing destination being the focus. The material level of existing retail vacancy would be supported by such a policy setting.

In terms of non-retail or business land requirements, an additional 37ha of developable commercial office land is required in order to accommodate projected demand to 2048. This is based on these requirements being land resource would be accommodating growth in multi-level commercial developments.

A 2-3 storey average would result in a land requirement of closer to only 10-15ha of commercial land over the long term. This demand, which goes well beyond the life of this District Plan, can

redevelopment of existing zoned sites (which contains a lot of old building stock coming to the end of its useful economic life and would likely require significant reinvestment to meet current building code standards) and use of vacant office stock / capacity.

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To assist in the economic and social rejuvenation of the New Plymouth Central Area, it is recommended to encourage the development of higher density residential development within the zone to complement the commercial (retail, offices) reinvestment. This provides a broader h immediate residential market, and provides the opportunity to create more affordable housing. Testing the commercial viability of enabling this provision should be undertaken as part of another step in the process to ensure any planning provisions are commercially grounded and development can be realised within the life of the plan.

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RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS

This section outlines some of the key issues facing NPD high level and as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines broad changes to the worlds Retail and Commercial markets as well as specific impacts brought about by unforeseen innovations in the market.

3.1. COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT

The 2020 year was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic that impacted virtually every sector and level of trade and commerce to some extent. The total extent of the damage will likely not be fully realised for some time though some indicative figures show that it will likely have a lasting impact on slowed economic growth for years to come.

The following figure shows the unadjusted nominal electronic cards transactions data for all retail sectors over the years (February 2019 January 2021) including the times New Zealand was in level 3 or 4 lockdowns. The electronic card transactions series covers all debit, credit, and charge card transactions with New Zealand-based merchants.

FIGURE 1: MONTHLY ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS RETAIL SALES, $M (FEB 2019 – JAN 2021)

Source: Stats NZ.

The level 4 restrictions had April electronic card transaction retail sales drop 47.5% to $2.9b from the previous year. The highest impacted retail rector was Hospitality, which saw a 94.8% decline in electronic card transactions followed by Apparel, 88.9% decline, and Vehicles excl. fuel with an 82.8% decline.

Services were also hit hard and there was a total decline in electronic card transaction sales for services of 87.2%.

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The only sector that saw an increase were sales of consumables (excluding fuel) which saw a 9.6% increase in sales over the previous year. This was due to panic buying and stock-up shopping as people purchased in larger quantities to reduce trips to the supermarket and potential exposure.

The following figure shows the number of electronic card transactions in all core retail1 sectors. There is a clear upward linear trend in the series and a strong seasonality to the data. This is to be expected with the December months having increased spend for the holiday season, followed by the post-holiday lull in January and February. Based on historic sales trends, and accounting for seasonality, it is anticipated that April 2020 would have had around 115 120 million core retail electronic card transactions had COVID not happened. There were, however, only around 36 million core retail electronic card transactions in April, under 1/3rd of what would have been expected.

The total quantum of transaction bounced back relatively quickly and, barring further lockdowns, will likely remain at strong levels.

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS PER MONTH (MILLIONS)

Source: Stats NZ.

The following figure shows the online retail shopping percentage share of total retail sales for the October 2019 September 2020 year. The months where New Zealand had a level 3 or Level 4 lockdown in place are also highlighted to show the extent of the correlation between online retail sales.

1 Core retail industries excludes motor vehicle-related industries.

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FIGURE 3: PERCENTAGE SHARE OF ONLINE RETAIL SALES FROM TOTAL RETAIL SALES.

Source: Datamine.

March 2020 saw lower than normal levels of online spending. This is because people expecting - supermarket and on other essential items in-store.

April 2020 was the month with the largest percentage share of online shopping on record, with 21% of all retail shopping done online. The percentage share of online shopping for the same time in 2019 was just 14%. Of note is that this high level of online transactions coincides with the lowest level of retail spend overall, as seen in Figure 1. The total dollar value of the online retail sales in April 2020 is therefore significantly lower than in previous years despite making up a higher share of all retail sales.

May 2020 saw the online share of retail spending return to relatively normal levels with the following months actually showing a decrease in the percentage share of online shopping overall. The average online share on total retail sales between May and September in 2019 was 14-15% on average, in 2020 it was around 12% on average.

We suspect this to be the result of people spending more in restaurants, bars and entertainment that was foregone during lockdown.

3.2. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS

At a higher level, the retail market is undergoing constant change in terms of how retail goods and services are delivered to consumers, resulting in changing retail formats as retailers try to better position themselves to attract the increasingly discerning shopper. This is leading to significant changes in the way consumers shop and crucially changes in the role and function of centres.

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Major changes that have occurred over recent decades, and shaped the retail market into what it is today, include the development of shopping malls from around 1970 onwards and the emergence in more recent times of LFR centres. Coinciding with this was the emergence of the - to provide improved con

Emerging now is the growing influence of Internet retailing (or e-tailing), which allows consumers to purchase previously inaccessible goods from stores not only outside their local catchment, but right around the world. All these changes have had, and will continue to have,

they play in the community and the retail offer provided.

E-tailing is anticipated to be a major factor that will have an increasing influence on the future retail provision required and shopping patterns and is now at a point where it should be factored into forward planning considerations. For the year ending January 2020, New Zealanders spent $9 billion online (incl. GST), which accounted for approximately 15% of New all retail sectors2. Growth in domestic online spending in New Zealand is outpacing growth in spending at physical stores, with February 2020 growth up 2% on February of the previous year.

Growth in online retail is likely to continue into the future and continue to be a larger share of total retail spend. The composition of that retail expenditure has, however, been impacted by COVID-19. This is because, pre-COVID, Travel and Accommodation made up approximately 40- 50% of online sales while, as of February 2020, this sector has not fully recovered and only makes up 15% of online sales.

Figure 4 illustrates the percentage share of online retail sales from total retail sales3. Over the period shown there is a clear upward trend in the percentage of total retail spending done online. Most of this difference comes in a stepwise increase in internet retail spending following the first lockdown (Level 4 in 23 March, 2020), though the increase in variation following the level 3 and 4 lockdowns (likely spurred on by the subsequent lockdowns and post lockdown retail splurges) may be covering up the true underlying trend.

2 Datamine. March 2021. Retail Categories include: Cafés, Restaurants, and Bars; Clothing and Footwear; Department Stores; Fuel Service Stations; Furniture, Appliances and Homeware; Health Goods and Services; Home Building Supplies; Books and Stationary; Liquor Stores; Recreation and Entertainment; Supermarkets and Other Food; Travel and Accommodation. 3 Retail sales excludes travel and accommodation.

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FIGURE 4: ONLINE RETIAL SALES AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES

Source: Datamine.

In Property Economics view, New Zealanders taste for e-tailing will continue to swing in a positive direction. Other developed nations, such as United States of America, United Kingdom and Japan, have e-tailing as high as 20% of total retail spending, for example. While New Zealand will likely not reach that high a proportion of spend in the near future, it will become a more present consideration.

The main reason New Zealand has been slower to e-tailing is the remoteness of the country which increases shipping costs and delivery times.

As a further consideration, this shift toward e-tailing may not impact the level of demand for retail store space at all. Where a naïve view of demand for retail GFA might suggest a decrease in demand as a response to the emergence of e-tailing, a more nuanced view would suggest a change in the Bricks-and-Mortar business model that orients it more towards customer service and a higher shopping experience that cannot be substituted online.

3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION

In retail terms and experience vital to staying ahead in an increasingly competitive market.

h the latter tending to be a more popular category), one of the by-products of heightened competitiveness and commercial realities is often more retailers having to trade at lower store productivities ($/sqm), and positioning stores in higher performing centres (particularly banner

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stores) is becoming increasingly important to maximising sales potential. This will only become more pronounced in the future as market competitiveness grows.

There have been a number of key factors that have diluted the retail offer, vitality, amenity and

driven changes in shopping patterns.

New Plymouth is not alone in battling these issues. At a higher level, the retail centres that have experienced minimal change in terms of how retail goods and services are delivered to . This has seen their consumer bases and retail sales decline as a proportion of total retail sales.

Consumers now generally want more than just to purchase a product from centres higher up the centre hierarchy, but a more complete shopping experience. In this regard, the quality of the environment built form, amenity, services, recreational spaces (active / passive, hard / soft, parking, etc.) has to be just as good as the product offer (competitively priced, range, scope of offer, quality of service, etc.).

Successful centres are creating more of a shopping experience which generates more reasons for consumers to visit a centre (and more frequently), and they become more lifestyle centres (movies, cafes, bars, restaurants, extended trading hours, market days, community events to ground the centre to a localised context, etc.) based around its core retail functions.

These centres can attract more consumers, more frequently and get them to stay longer, i.e. they increase the average spend per shopper per visit. For traditional town centres and main streets such as Rangiora and Kaiapoi this has the added benefit of increasing the economic efficiencies of community (Council) investment in these centres.

3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES AND CENTRES

it is today, include the development of shopping malls from around 1970 onwards, the on-going , and the emergence in more recent times of LFR centres.

their non-

This has resulted in consumers spreading their spending across a wider range of centres with

layering of centre catchments across the region.

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3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS

Emerging now is the (R)etail (R)evolution with growing influence of Internet retailing, which allows consumers to purchase previously inaccessible goods from stores not only outside their local catchment, but right around the world. E-tailing is now moving into a mobile format with

All these changes have had, and will continue to have, cumulative and underlying influences on the mor community and the retail offer provided.

E-tailing is anticipated to be a major factor that will have an increasing influence on the future retail provision required and shopping patterns, and has now at around 10% of the market reached a point where it is an entrenched component of the retail landscape. Growing e-tail sales will account for an increasing proportion of total retail sales (estimated to reach 20% over time) whi -the-

a decline in the retail built form from current levels, but more likely a slow-down in retail built form growth, as a result of market growth.

Successful retail centres in the future will continue to play a dominating role in retail markets providing human interaction and experiences complementing the significant Internet sales channel. Retail centres which provide more than just a generic goods retailing platform will

through the Internet forum.

Interesting, diverse, and multi-functional retail-based locations will always form an important -regional centres will only be those large places which as well as providing a significant retail function are conveniently accessed and located to provide consumer needs across a broad spectrum of activities and services.

3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS

Some emerging office trends that will influence (predominantly lower) the amount of office space requirements for both businesses and employees in the future, and impact how office space is likely to be utilised looking ahead, from which New Plymouth is unlikely to be immune, include:

• Telecommuting / Virtual Offices increasingly businesses are offering telecommuting as a way to give employees more flexible schedules and in some cases make up for not offering larger salary increases. This also lowers the costs associated with traditional office space as a result of lower space requirements with fewer employees working in the office at the same time.

• Open Office Spaces with fewer employees coming into the office, businesses are reconfiguring floor plans to devote more square metres to communal areas

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and less to trad

• Mobile Devices an increasing number of employees are using their own iPhones, iPads and other portable electronic devices for work instead of business issued computers or laptops. This provides the opportunity for

• Instant Communication an increasing numbers of employees view email as an inefficient form of communication compared to texts messages, social networks and other alternatives, with many commentators in the office trend field suggesting email is quickly going the way of the fax machine.

• Online and Real Time Collaboration Tools more businesses are using web- based software to communicate with telecommuting employees (refer first bullet point of this paragraph) and mobile workers via web-based programmes. This allows employee contact from anywhere with web access rather than having physically to be in the office, i.e. less office cubicles required. Many of these software packages now allow for real time collaboration between users, further shrinking locational limitations of the past.

industries that have reduced the need for costly hardware as they overcome the hardware requirements that where once needed, effectively outsourcing to the cloud.

• Independent Contractors / Freelance Workers increasing more people are working as independent contractors, for many not because they cannot find permanent employment but because they want to. The 40-hour work week is quickly becoming a concept of the past, with many businesses paying contractors by the project instead of requiring them to spend 40 hours a week sitting in the office. This also assists de-risking business operational costs and overheads during quiet periods of work.

• Co-Working Spaces there is an increasing movement for home-based businesses and workers to investigate the potential for co-working spaces in their local area. This is where they can find a desk for a few hours, often at minimal expense, plus access to conference / meeting rooms, Internet

a term lease. This is basically small businesses sharing the same office space to lower operational expenses.

A side effect of this is the increasing connectedness of businesses, particularly

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start-ups who are now networking with businesses they would otherwise not have interacted with.

Combined these office trends, many of which are establishing in the market already, are likely to have a material effect on lowering office and employee space requirements in the future with most businesses focusing on better managing their operational expenses to increase competitiveness, profitability and ultimately investment return.

These trends make it more important to focus office activity into the New Plymouth CBD to ensure vitality, vibrancy, amenity and the role and function of the central city area is not compromised due to the dispersal of such activity.

Another benefit of the above listed office environment changes is their resilience in a post- COVID-19 world where a high degree of flexibility has played an important role in workplaces remaining functional. Mobile workstations and improved communications technology in particular have allowed workers to work from home with a greater degree of seamlessness. While it is unlikely that there will be a large-scale shift away from centralised office spaces due to the efficiency gains in communication, collaboration and oversight it is possible that future growth in demand for office space may be more subdued.

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NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET

This section outlines the extent of NPD that defines the area of interest of this economic analysis as well as some of the predominant urban townships. New Plymouth City plays the most predominant role as a centre and is therefore of particular interest in this assessment.

The following figure identifies the extent of NPD4 and the core economic market that determines its success. While NPD draws customers from beyond the district, this represents its primary market where the bulk of its commercial and retail sales are derived from.

As a point to note, the urban environments within the wider Taranaki region are geographically isolated from the larger cities in the Country and mostly rely on NPD, and New Plymouth City in particular, for their retail and commercial services. As a result, NPD holds a strategically important place within the region, and New Plymouth City sits at the centre of that catchment.

FIGURE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH CORE ECONOMIC MARKET – NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT

Source: Google, NZTA, Stats NZ.

4 Territorial Authority (2020) boundaries provided by Stats NZ.

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING

A demographic profile for NPD has been complied. This is to determine where the market sits in terms of demographic characteristics on a comparative basis to the rest of the Taranaki Region and New Zealand.

A more detailed breakdown of the demographic profiles has been attached in Appendix 1.

Some of the salient findings from the demographic profiling include:

• NPD ent being around69% of households in the wider Taranaki Region. • New Plymouth, and Taranaki Region, have significantly fewer people per dwelling than the country as a whole. New Plymouth has 2.55 people per dwelling compared to the

• The age profile of New Plymouth closely matched that of the Taranaki Region and New Zealand. The only major deviation is a lower proportion of young working professionals, 20 -29 years of age, where 11% of the population in New Plymouth are in the young pro. This is likely due to the lack of higher education options (university) in New Plymouth. • This difference in age breakdown is primarily made up in the over 60s categories where around 24% of New Plymouth residents are 60 years and over, compared to just 21% for the country as a whole. • New Plymouth has a higher median household income than the Taranaki Region but a significantly lower household income than New Zealand as a whole. NPD household

$76,000. • New Plymouth has significantly more people that identify as European compared to the country as a whole with 75% of people identifying as European in NPD compared with just 62% in New Zealand. The difference is made up with fewer people identifying as Asian (5%) and Pacific Peoples (2%) compared to the country, 13% and 7%, respectively. • Fewer people in NPD have a higher-level education (Bachelor degree or higher) than the country as a whole. Where 18% of the District have a higher-level education, and 22% have no qualifications at all, compared with 25% of people in New Zealand having a higher-level education and just 18% having no qualification at all. • NPD has significantly subdued rents compared to the Country as a whole, where 91% of residential rents are priced under $400/week compared with just 63% for the country. • This is similarly reflected in the dwelling tenure rates, where 70% of people own, partly own or have their home in a family trust compared to just 65% for the country as a whole.

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POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

This section outlines recent, and projected future, trends in the levels of population and household growth in NPD.

The figure and table below show the latest Stats NZ Population and Household Growth Projections for NPD and an updated projection series from NPDC (orange line).

Stats NZ population projections are base-2018 population projections. These are the latest population projections published by Stats NZ based on data collected during the 2018 Census.

The final value, for the year 2053, is an extrapolation of the trended population projection using exponential smoothing. This figure is used because Stats NZ only projects out as far as 2048. While this is not a perfect substitute, for the purpose of estimating long-term trends it provides sufficient guidance.

Similarly, the NPDC projections provided reach as far as 2051. This has also been extrapolated based on exponential smoothing to account for the missing two years out to 2053.

Stats NZ Household projections are calculated based on assumptions made from Stats NZ (base-2013) about household growth i.e. the newest population projections are divided by the projected, average number of people per dwelling from Stats NZ household projections. This is done because, at time of publication, Stats NZ have not released base-2018 household projections. The household projections should therefore be treated as indicative and with caution.

-than- expected level of interest in the district; the 2020 population estimate is higher than Stats NZ High growth scenario would have projected, based on a linear trend. This could indicate that a higher growth trajectory is on track for the district. However, for the purpose of this analysis we use the NPDC projections to be consistent with the most recent capacity modelling completed as this informs the likely distribution of future growth for the district.

For the purpose of this assessment, we utilise a projection period out to 2053, with 2023 as the starting point of 30-year projections for the purpose of ensuring the demand assessment complies with the NPS-UD long-term capacity obligations.

The Stats NZ High growth scenario indicates NPD could reach almost 100,000 people by 2033. This is equivalent to an additional 1,050 on average per annum over the 2020 2033 period, or total growth of 13,630 (around 16% of the current population).

The NPDC projections have a more grounded 2033 figure and reach a population of 95,000. This is equivalent to growth of 7,000 net additional people over the 13-year time period, or, alternatively, an increase in net population of 8% over the 2020 total. An average net increase of around 540 people, annually.

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The Stats NZ High growth scenario would have NPD grow to 117,500 people by 2053. This is equivalent to total growth of 31,400 additional people over the 2020 2053 period, or around 950 additional people on average per annum.

The NPDC projections have a more grounded 2053 figure and reach a population of 106,000 people. This is equivalent to growth of 19,930 net additional people over the 33-year time period, or, alternatively, an increase in net population of 23% over the 2020 population base. This equates to an average net increase of around 600 people, annually.

Part of this historic high growth for the District can be explained by large increases in house prices across the country making more provincial locations comparatively affordable compared to those in the main centre (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Tauranga, Hamilton). This has driven more people to find homes outside these main centres than initially thought in the 2013 base projections.

FIGURE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2013 – 2053)

Source: Infometrics, Stats NZ, Property Economics.

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FIGURE 7: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS (2013 – 203)

Source: Infometrics, Stats NZ, Property Economics.

TABLE 1: NEW PLYMOUTH POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS (2020 – 2053)

Net Growth New Plymouth 2020 Projection 2023 2028 2033 2053 (2020 - 2053) District Estimate Nominal Percentage

Stats NZ - Low 85,700 86,500 86,800 84,800 -1,270 -1%

Stats NZ - Medium 87,700 90,600 93,100 100,800 14,730 17% 86,070 Stats NZ - High 89,700 94,900 99,700 117,500 31,430 37%

Population Infometrics 88,000 91,900 95,000 106,000 19,930 23%

Stats NZ - Low 34,570 35,220 35,740 36,140 2,330 7%

Stats NZ - Medium 35,380 36,880 38,330 43,560 9,750 29% 33,810 Stats NZ - High 36,190 38,640 41,050 50,310 16,500 49%

Households Infometrics 35,160 36,930 38,560 44,100 10,290 30%

Source: Infometrics, Stats NZ, Property Economics.

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RETAIL DEMAND AND SUSTAINABLE GFA

This section sets out the projected retail expenditure and sustainable GFA forecasts for the identified retail catchments. These forecasts have been based on the aforementioned population and household growth projections and have been prepared using Property High Growth forecast which informs the level of growth in retail expenditure in the district.

7.1. RETAIL GROWTH MODEL

The following flow chart provides a graphical representation of the Property Economics Retail Expenditure Growth Model to assist in better understanding the methodology and key inputs utilised.

FIGURE 8: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL GROWTH MODEL OUTLINE

GROWTH IN REAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE

For the purposes of projecting retail expenditure, growth in real retail spend has been incorporated into the model at a rate of 1% per annum over the forecast period. This 1% rate is based on the level of debt retail spending, interest rates and changes in disposable income levels, and is the average inflation adjusted increase in spend per household over the assessed period.

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LAYERED RETAIL CATCHMENTS

It is important to note that the retail expenditure generated in the identified markets do not necessarily equate to the sales within that particular area. Residents can freely travel in and out of the area, and they will typically choose the centres with their preferred range of stores, products, brands, proximity, accessibility and price points. A good quality offering will attract customers from beyond its core market, whereas a low-quality offering is likely to experience retail expenditure leakage out of its core market.

As an example, Whanganui and New Plymouth are both approximately equidistant from Hawera and represent the largest centres with the greatest retail offering. Hawera residents are likely to split their retail spend based on the idiosyncrasies of each centre that Hawera residents prefer.

Therefore, the retail expenditure generated in an area represents the sales centres or retail stores within that area could potentially achieve and is the key influence on what the market can potentially sustain. This should not be interpreted as a negative for any potential retail activity in NPD, but simply represents normal commercial market mechanisms (competition) and is a consideration that needs to be appropriately accounted for in any retail economic analysis.

EXCLUDED ACTIVITIES

The retail expenditure figures below are in 2020 NZ dollars and exclude the following retail activities, as categorised under the ANZSIC categorisation system:

• Accommodation (hotels, motels, backpackers, etc.)

• Vehicle and marine sales & services (petrol stations, car yards, boat shops, caravan sales, and stores such as Repco, Super Cheap Autos, tyre stores, panel beating, auto electrical and mechanical repairs, etc.)

• Hardware, home improvement, building and garden supplies retailing (e.g. Mitre 10, Hammer Hardware, Bunnings, PlaceMakers, ITM, Kings Plant Barn, Palmers Garden Centres, etc.)

The above retail sectors have been excluded because they are not considered to be core retail expenditure, nor fundamental retail centre activities in terms of visibility, location, viability or functionality, particularly convenience centres. Modern retail centres do not rely on these types of stores to be viable or retain their role and function in the market as such stores have the potential to generate only non-consequential trade competition effects rather than flow-on retail distribution effects in the context of the RMA. Therefore, t economic wellbeing and social amenity cannot be unduly compromised.

The latter two bullet points contain activity types that generally have great difficulty establishing new stores in centres for land economic and site constraint reasons, i.e. the commercial reality is that for most of these activity types it would be unviable to establish new stores in centres given their modern store footprint requirements and untenable to remain located within them for an

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extended period of time (beyond an initial lease term) in successful centres due to property economic considerations such as rent, operating expenses, land value, operational and functional requirements and site sizes.

Trade orientated activities such as kitchen showrooms, plumbing stores, electrical stores and paint stores are also excluded from the model for similar reasons. This is not to imply that these activity types are not situated in centres, as in many instances some of these stores types remain operating in centres as a historic overhang.

However, in the future, it is increasingly difficult from a retail economic perspective to see these store types establishing in centres (new or redeveloped), albeit they likely have equal planning opportunity to do so. As such, demand for these store types is additional to the retail demand assessed in this analysis. In essence, these stores types are not convenience centre activities.

CONVENIENCE STORES

Convenience retailing can be generally defined as stores used for quick stop and frequently required shopping, used primarily due to their close proximity and easy accessibility for the customer. These stores are not exclusive to any one retail category with examples of such stores including, dairies, bakeries, fruit & vegetable stores, cafés and restaurants.

Supermarkets, albeit being a large footprint store, are also classified as convenience stores given they predominantly service more localised catchments, the products sold are largely homogenous between supermarket stores and they tend to be fairly evenly distributed right

SUSTAINABLE GFA

This analysis uses a sustainable footprint approach to assess retail demand. Sustainable

retail expenditure that is likely to result in an appropriate quality and offer in the retail enviro productivity ($/sqm) that allows retail stores to trade profitably and provide a good quality retail environment, and thus economic wellbeing and social amenity.

It is also necessary to separate the Gross Floor Area into:

• Net retail floorspace (Sustainable Floorspace); and • Back office floorspace that does not generate any retail spend (Back Office Floorspace).

ich displays the goods and services sold and represents the area which the general public has access. By contrast, the Gross Floor Area typically represents the total area leased by a retailer. Back Office Floorspace in a retail store is the area used fo

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These activities on average occupy around 25- lower) between individual retailers based on operational and functional requirements. It is important to separate out such back office floorspace from sustainable floorspace because back office floorspace does not generate any retail spend. For the purposes of this analysis a 30% ratio has been applied.

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MODELS

It should be noted that some alterations have been made to the Retail Expenditure Growth Model since the last report update. The most pertinent information that has impacted the retail expenditure forecasts is:

• New Population Projections; and • New Household Economic Survey data; and • New Tourism Satellite Account data; and • New base year (2020) for nominal sums.

These factors combined with anticipated real growth in retailing and changes in consumer shopping patterns (increases in internet retailing) explain the vast majority of the difference figures.

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7.2. RETAIL EXPENDITURE

Table 2 disaggregates the total annual retail expenditure by retail category over the 2020 2053 period. All figures are in 2020-dollar terms.

TABLE 2: ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE GENERATED – NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ($M)

Retail Spend ($m) 2020 2023 2028 2033 2053

Food retailing $363 $379 $413 $448 $586

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories $62 $64 $70 $76 $100 retailing

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and $35 $37 $40 $43 $56 textile goods retailing

Electrical and electronic goods retailing $47 $49 $53 $57 $74

Pharmaceutical and other store-based $94 $98 $107 $117 $154 retailing

Department stores $73 $76 $83 $90 $118

Recreational goods retailing $39 $40 $44 $48 $63

Food and beverage services $164 $171 $187 $205 $273

Total Retail Expenditure $875 $916 $997 $1,085 $1,424

Source: Property Economics.

Under the Infometrics Growth Scenario, NPD currently generates just over $875m in annual retail expenditure and this annual expenditure generation is expected to grow by $549m (or 63%) to $1.4B by 2053.

By far the largest sector is Food retailing, which includes supermarket shopping. This sector accounts for 41% of all retail expenditure generated within the district and totals $363m in annual expenditure generated. Food retailing is anticipated to grow by $223m (or 61%) over the next 33 years to 2053. The largest tranche of Food retailing is the supermarket industry which typically accounts for around 75% of all food retailing. This would have the 2020 supermarket industry of NPD valued at around $273m annually, or $440m annually by 2053.

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Food and beverage services account for the second most expenditure generated at $164m (or 19% of total retail expenditure) annually. Food and beverage services are anticipated to grow by $109m (or 66%) to a total of $273m by 2053.

FIGURE 9: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETIAL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR ($M)

Source: Property Economics.

7.3. SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST

The sustainable retail floorspace represents the total level of retail GFA that could be sustained

This analysis uses a sustainable footprint approach to assess retail demand. Sustainable floor

expenditure that is likely to result in an appropriate quality and offer in the retail environment.

sqm) that allows retail stores to trade profitably and provide a good quality retail environment.

For the purpose of this report there is also a need to translate net retail trading floor space in to GFA, as net retail trading floor space excludes floor area in a retail area used for storage, warehousing, staff facilities, office or toilets etc. These activities typically occupy around 25-30%

A total level of 160,100sqm of retail GFA is sustainable within the entirety of NPD based on the current level of retail expenditure generated. This is anticipated to grow to 239,200 by 2053; this

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is total growth of 79,100sqm of additional retail GFA, or a net increase in the sustainable level of retail GFA of 49%.

FIGURE 10: SUSTAINABLE RETAIL GFA WITHIN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (SQM)

Retail Floorspace (sqm) 2020 2023 2028 2033 2053

Food retailing 44,700 46,700 50,900 55,200 72,300

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories 10,700 11,300 12,200 13,300 17,600 retailing

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and 12,100 12,700 13,700 14,900 19,200 textile goods retailing

Electrical and electronic goods retailing 11,800 12,400 13,400 14,500 18,700

Pharmaceutical and other store-based 18,500 19,300 21,000 22,900 30,300 retailing

Department stores 26,100 27,300 29,600 32,300 42,000

Recreational goods retailing 10,300 10,800 11,700 12,700 16,800

Food and beverage services 25,900 27,200 29,700 32,500 22,300

Total Retail Expenditure 160,100 167,700 182,200 198,300 239,200

Source: Property Economics.

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CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY

This section outlines the current retail provision within NPD and New Plymouth CBD. Store counts, sizes and types from an earlier report as well as updated vacancy data are used to assess the provision of specific retail sectors and health of the retail market in NPD and New

The following figure shows the change in store count by retail sector for the NPD between the previous retail audit conducted by Property Economics in 2016 and a retail store count conducted by NPDC in 2021.

Note, the 2021 retail store count did not include measurements of stores. Instead Property Economics has relied upon the previous retail audit (2016) to be indicative of the level of GFA. As a result, subsequent figures and tables (after Table 3) show the results of the 2016 retail audit.

Additionally, a subsequent vacant store count was conducted by Property Economics in May 2021 to ensure the total vacant stores counted is consistent with Property Economics definition. This is to ensure comparability between the 2016 retail audit and the most recent store count conducted by New Plymouth District Council.

The total number of retail stores within NPD has grown substantially between 2016 and 2021. In 2016 there were 490 retail stores operating within NPD, this has grown to 612 retail stores. This is total growth of 122 stores or around an additional 24 stores, on average, per annum over the last 5-years.

In terms (excluding vacant stores and stores under construction), growth was considerably more tempered with a net addition of 67 stores over the past 5-year period. This is equivalent to a net additional 13 stores on average, per annum to a total of 526 operating stores throughout the district. In other words, almost half the growth in retail store counts has not resulted in a net additional going-concern business.

There is a concerning number of vacant retail properties across NPS. Around 14% of retail properties in NPD are currently vacant compared to 7% in 2016.

It is likely that some of this vacancy is due to the impact of COVID-19 which forced a number of retailers to permanently close, due to being under financial hardship following lockdown orders. In Property Economics view, however, not all of this vacancy can be attributed to COVID-19 as NPD has been fairly insulated against the worst economic impacts of the pandemic. It is likely that the establishment of retail outside of prescribed centres has negatively impacted the vitality and vibrancy of the established hierarchy of centres in NPD and created negative trade distribution effects. These trade distribution effects have caused a disproportionate number of store closures and have resulted in a high level of vacancy.

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TABLE 3: RETAIL STORE AUDIT COMPARISON (2016 & 2021) – NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT

Net Nominal 2016 Store 2021 Store Sector 2016 2021 Change (Δ) Count (%) Count (%)

Supermarket retailing 7 34 27 1% 6%

Food retailing 53 38 -15 11% 6%

Food and beverage services 168 212 44 35% 35%

Clothing footwear and personal acessories 65 74 9 14% 12%

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and 31 30 -1 7% 5% textile goods retailing

Electrical and electronic goods 7 13 6 1% 2%

Pharmaceuticals and other store-based 88 112 24 18% 18% retailing

Department store retailing 4 4 0 1% 1%

Recreational goods retailing 22 9 -13 5% 1%

Vacant or under construction 31 86 55 7% 14%

Total 476 612 136 100% 100%

Total (excl. Vacant and under Construction) 445 526 81 93% 86%

Source: New Plymouth District Council, Property Economics.

The following table shows the results of the 2016 retail audit by store size and retail classification for New Plymouth District. This assists in a more in-depth analysis of the structure of the current retail supply within the catchment by allowing a differentiation between speciality and large format retailing (LFR) store types.

moving forward if its retail provision is to continue to play (and improve) its role and function successfully. At present a substantial 88% of the retail stores in the district are small (below 500 sqm) speciality / finer grain retailers, however these b represent 40% of total retail GFA.

Although large format retailers (LFR) represent just 12% of retail stores nominally they account for 60% of retail GFA, with supermarkets and the department stores being the dominant

important to build improved performance, function and amenity.

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TABLE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT RETAIL STORE SIZE BY RETAIL CLASSIFICATION APRIL 2016

ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICATIONS 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total

Supermarket retailing 7 7 23,950 23,950

Food retailing 50 3 53 8,240 2,050 10,290

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories 61 2 2 65 8,610 1,240 2,290 12,140

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile 16 8 7 31 4,410 5,580 11,400 21,390 goods retailing

Electrical and electronic goods 4 1 2 7 1,170 670 2,850 4,690

Pharmaceutical and personal goods retailing 13 13 2,040 2,040

Department stores 4 4 26,640 26,640

Recreational goods retailing 16 4 2 22 2,940 2,690 3,840 9,470

Other goods retailing 68 5 2 75 9,110 3,940 3,000 16,050

Food and beverage services 163 5 168 22,060 3,500 25,560

(2016) RETAIL AUDIT PLYMOUTHNEW DISTRICT Vacant 30 1 31 4,690 2,350 7,040

Total 421 28 27 476 63,270 19,670 76,320 159,260

Total % 88% 6% 6% 100% 40% 12% 48% 100%

Source: Property Economics.

The table below breaks New Plymouth District total retail stores and total GFA into size brackets (0-499sqm, 500-999sqm and 1000 plus) by commercial centre. This highlights the differing roles and functions that each centre plays within the district.

The CBD makes up over 50% of total stores, illustrating the critical role that the centre plays in

with a significant proportion of the districts LFR (almost 50%) such as supermarkets and department stores, as well as comparison shopping such as clothing, footwear and soft goods.

The Valley also services the wider district, however, plays a different role and function to the

1000 sqm) and serves primarily as a shopping destination for LFR store types. This centre has less specialty finer grain stores that act as supporting stores for the LFR centre, in comparison to the CBD which has specialty stores operating on their own.

Bell Block has almost 10% of the district Warehouse) and the SuperValue supermarket mean that the centre also serves a wider market, drawing customers in from smaller neighbouring centres. This centre is functioning with very low levels of vaca stores .

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TABLE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT BY CENTRE (2016)

Source: Property Economics.

NEW PLYMOUTH CBD

The figure below contains the store count comparison between the 2016 retail audit and the 2021 retail survey

The vacancy rate within the CBD shows that approximately 12% of retail stores are vacant, which represents a significantly higher level of vacancy than the 5% recorded in 2016. A more acceptable (in terms of providing a good quality retail environment and experience) vacancy rate for a destination shopping location like the CBD is between 3-7%.

This significant increase in vacant stores in the CBD from 12 to 41, i.e., over 3 times higher, is a major step backwards for the health and vitality of the CBD and suggests the current state of the CBD is worse than when originally assessed and in need of policy assistance in the District Plan to improve its envisaged role and function.

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TABLE 6: RETAIL STORE AUDIT COMPARISON (2016 & 2021) – NEW PLYMOUTH CBD

Net Nominal 2016 Store 2021 Store Sector 2016 2021 Change (Δ) Count (%) Count (%) Supermarket retailing 3 6 3 1% 2%

Food retailing 14 22 8 6% 7%

Food and beverage services 87 113 26 35% 34%

Clothing footwear and personal acessories 53 60 7 21% 18%

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and 22 20 -2 9% 6% textile goods retailing

Electrical and electronic goods 3 7 4 1% 2%

Pharmaceuticals and other store-based 37 60 23 15% 18% retailing Department store retailing 2 2 0 1% 1%

Recreational goods retailing 15 4 -11 6% 1%

Vacant or under construction 12 41 29 5% 12%

Total 248 335 87 100% 100%

Total (excl. Vacant and under Construction) 236 294 58 95% 88%

Source: New Plymouth District Council, Property Economics.

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NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT SPENDING PATTERNS

This section assesses the retail flows of NPD at a District level. To assess the level of retail NPD, this report utilises MarketView retail transaction data. The retail transaction data utilised in this report is based on the March 2019 - February 2020 period. This discrete period has been chosen as it is an annualised period, thereby removing any seasonal variations in retail expenditure.

Whilst not the most recent calendar year, this data is considered to provide an appropriate depiction of current shopping patterns given the limited changes in the retail market since 2019. This data is of greater relevance to the long-term pattern of spend as it is not impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic response (lockdown) and subsequent economic flows (lower discretionary spend, lower tourism, etc.).

MarketView data is based on the spending and retail transactions of Paymark credit and debit (EFTPOS) cardholders. As a guide, electronic card transactions account for approximately 60%- 70% of retail spending within NZ. The MarketView data has been collected from a range of stores across the spectrum of assessed retailers in the catchment, from national chains to small independent stores.

Given the large sample size Paymark card holders and the prolific use of EFTPOS within NZ, MarketView data is considered to provide a robust and accurate representation of the origin and destination of retail spending patterns in New Plymouth, and hence has been used as a basis for this assessment.

The proportions in the following subsections exclude the retail categories of accommodation (hotels, motels, backpackers, etc.) and vehicle and marine sales and services (car yards, boat shops, caravan sales, Repco, Super Cheap Auto, tyre stores, panel beating, mechanical repairs). Also excluded are the trade sectors as identified earlier in the report (Hardware and Building Supplies).

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9.1. DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPEND

re spending their retail dollars. Destination is classified by territorial authority as the smallest statistical unit available. This provides in- Plymouth. Outflow is interchangeably referred to as leakage for the duration of this report.

Figure 11 demonstrates the current distribution of retail spending by NPD residents by destination across all retail sectors.

Separating NPD generated by District residents is internalised, i.e. being spent within the District. This is not rcial centres. It is worth noting that a previous Property Economics report, relying on Marketview data for the 2015

internalised. That is a percentage point increase of 5% over 5-

interestingly over a quarter of that is being spent in Auckland indicating that the Auckland region appears to be the next preferred retail destination for New Plymouth residents.

FIGURE 11: DESTINATION OF SPEND GENERATED WITHIN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT

Source: Marketview.

The following figure shows the destination of retail spend generated in NPD spent outside NPD.

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TABLE 7: DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPEND IN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (EXCL. NEW PLYMOUTH

DISTRICT)

Source: Marketview.

9.2. ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPEND

NPD is

into the district.

Figure 12, below, illustrates the proportional composition of retail spending within New Plymouth from the New Zealand and International markets.

A substantial proportion of retail sales within New Plymouth are attributable to local consumers residing in the district. Local residents account for 80% of total expenditure, or $4 out of every $5 spent within the district. NPD also has a meaningful inflow of customers (and expenditure) from the wider Taranaki Region (9%), indicating that NPD is the primary retail / commercial centre for the region.

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FIGURE 12: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPENDING WITHIN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT

Source: MarketView.

The following figure shows the origin of spend within New Plymouth that originated from outside New Plymouth.

TABLE 8: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPEND IN NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (EXCL. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT)

Source: Marketview.

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9.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS

core market, and the proportional inflow of retail dollars entering New Plymouth by sector quantifies the net flow of retail expenditure for the core market. This is helpful in identifying

the previous two subsections.

For the purpose of this analysis, the report compares inflow and outflow as a proportion of total spending or retail expenditure generated within the core New Plymouth market. This means that the outflow percentages represent the proportion of spending made by New Plymouth residents outside of the district, while inflows represent the spending made within the district as a proportion of what the local market generates.

Figure 12 assesses the proportional level of leakage / inflow of retail dollars exiting / entering the NPD by sector to determine a net flow position for each sector.

FIGURE 13: NET RETAIL FLOWS BY RETAIL SECTOR

Source: MarketView.

NPD has a total net retail position of 105%, that is, the district captures 5% more retail spend than it generates on an annualised basis. The previous report by Property Economics found that the total net retail position was 103% in the 2015 year. This is a 2-percentage point increase over the past 5-year period in net retail position. This could suggest that the district is able to sustain additional retail GFA over and above that stated in section 7.

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Overall, just 15% of the spend generated within NPD was spent outside the district (leakage).

The only sector that represents a net outflow for the district is Liquor retailing where a net leakage of 4% seen. Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textiles has the largest net inflow of retail spend at 13-percentage points above the districts retail spend.

Interestingly, Clothing, footwear and softgoods has the largest outflow, which is countered by also having the largest inflow, leaving its net position positive at 108%. In the previous Property economics report, the net position for this sector was negative with a net leakage of 1%.

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SUPPLY AND DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL

This section of the report compares the total District centre retail provision against forecast sustainable retail demand as determined in Section 8. This is to better understand the retail provision differential both currently and over the forecast period.

The table below illustrates differences in forecast sustainable retail GFA and existing centre retail supply, providing an overview of the supply vs. demand dynamics of the NPD market. It is important to note that retail supply does not typically match sustainable retail GFA given the constant movement in the market. This analysis gives an overview of the market demand / supply differential at a point in time and therefore figures should not be regarded as strict guidelines but more a general steer towards what is appropriate direction for the District Plan.

the demand / supply analysis.

TABLE 9: RETAIL CENTRE GFA SUPPLY / DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL

Retail GFA Differential 2020 2023 2028 2033 2053 (sqm) Sustainable Retail GFA 160,100 167,700 182,200 198,300 239,200 (sqm)

Less: Current Retail GFA 159,840 159,840 159,840 159,840 159,840 Provision (sqm)

Net Differential (sqm) 260 7,860 22,360 38,460 79,360

Source: Property Economics. There is currently adequate retail provision within NPD centres for the short term, with a small shortfall in the medium-term emerging. By 2053, and based on projected growth, the NPD could sustain an additional 79,400sqm GFA.

While this provides an indication of the level of anticipated net demand for retail GFA in NPD, it is important to consider the current state or health of the existing retail centres from the perspective of quality and performance also.

Given that there is a significant level of vacancy within the primary retail centre of the District, New Plymouth CBD, it is important to promote the CBD as a primary consideration regarding land use policy for retail. Failure to maintain the vitality and vibrancy of the CBD will have significant flow on economic effects that are likely to result in negative retail trade distribution effects. Conversely, the consolidation of new retail to the existing centre network will improve the quality and diversity of the retail offering within the district. Maintaining the CBD as the primary focus of retail and commercial activity will increase the vibrancy and quality of the and ultimately improve its role and function in the community.

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CONVENIENCE CENTRE OVERVIEW

This section provides an overview of the performance and potential of each of the following centres to inform policy direction and development; Bell Block, Fitzroy, Hurdon, Inglewood, Merrilands, Moturoa, akura, kato, Spotswood, Vogeltown, Waitara, Westown, and Woodleigh.

Give of the CBD primarily focus on servicing the convenience retail and commercial / professional requirements of the market. As these centres only service a small part total retail requirements, the following analysis is focusing solely on convenience retail activity that is offered in each centre.

The following figures for each of the convenience centre catchments is reported:

• Population. • Households. • Total annual retail expenditure. • Total supportable retail GFA. • Total existing retail GFA.

The extent of each convenience centre catchment differs to that of previous Property direct should be made with caution. This is due to different boundaries being used by Stats NZ for the release of Census data and updating of Property Economics Retail Model. As a result the recommendations for each catchment area may differ.

The latest population projections have not been released at the sub-district level at the time of publication. Instead, we have relied upon the base 2013 projections as an approximate measure of the distribution of future growth. While this is likely not too far off what Stats NZ is likely to release, caution is advised using these sub-district projections.

Figures 14 and 15, below, outlines the commercial centres currently existing within NPD and New Plymouth City, respectively.

Convenience retailing can be generally defined as stores used for quick stop and frequently required shopping, used primarily due to their close proximity to the customer. These stores are not exclusive to anyone retail category, some examples of such stores include dairies, bakeries, fruit and vegetable stores, cafes and restaurants.

Nationwide, convenience retail spending (excluding supermarket expenditure) is estimated to represent around 19% of all retail expenditure and this ratio has been adopted for the purpose of this analysis given the minimal variation at a localised level. A list of typical retail and commercial service convenience store types provided in Appendix 3.

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FIGURE 14: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES – DISTRICT

Source: Google, Property Economics.

FIGURE 15: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES – CITY

Source: Google, Property Economics.

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11.1. BELL BLOCK

FIGURE 16: BELL BLOCK CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 7,860 2020 $15 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 9,740 2053 $22

Nominal Growth 1,880 Nominal Growth $7

Percentage Growth 24% Percentage Growth 47%

Sustainable Households 2020 2,790 2020 2,785 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 3,640 2053 3,767

Nominal Growth 850 Nominal Growth 983

Percentage Growth 30% Percentage Growth 35%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 20

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 2,414

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 3,767

Future GFA Required 1,353

Source: Property Economics.

Bell Block is a town located 6 km north-east of New Plymouth and is populated by almost 7,860 people living in around 2,790 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience growth at around the same rate as the District as a whole. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience similar growth (24% and 30%, respectively) to the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

Within the centre there are currently around 20 convenience retail stores covering an estimated 2,400 sqm of convenience retail GFA. Bell Block currently generates $15m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual growth in the convenience market of 47% by 2053. This equates to an increase in annual convenience expenditure generated within Bell Block of $7m by 2053.

Given demand, Bell Block generates enough convenience retail expenditure on an annualised basis to sustain an estimated 2,785sqm of retail GFA. This is forecast to grow to 3,767sqm of GFA by 2053.

that Bell Block serves outside of its identified core market. The area has two convenience centres (Parklands and Bell Block) which include a SuperValue Supermarket as well as The

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Warehouse. These LFR stores, although not classified as convenience retailing, act as important evels of convenience retailing.

Recommendation

Bell Block is forecast to have significant levels of population / household growth which will result in an undersupply of retail space in the long term. Future retail requirements are unable to be met with the current provision, but for the life of the PDP the existing provision is considered sufficient. Over the longer term some additional supply is likely to be required.

11.2. FITZROY

FIGURE 17: FITZROY CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 5,340 2020 $10 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 6,170 2053 $14

Nominal Growth 830 Nominal Growth $4

Percentage Growth 16% Percentage Growth 37%

Sustainable Households 2020 2,230 2020 1,892 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 2,740 2053 2,387

Nominal Growth 510 Nominal Growth 495

Percentage Growth 23% Percentage Growth 26%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 23

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 2,723

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 2,387

Future GFA Required -336

Source: Property Economics.

Fitzroy is a coastal suburb of New Plymouth located to the east of the city centre. It is populated by almost 5,300 people living in approximately 2,200 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience slower growth (16% and 23%, respectively) to the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053. However, Fitzroy is a prime location for increased residential density zones that if approved during the District Plan process would elevate growth, opportunity and potentially status in Fitzroy.

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The centre currently has over 2,700sqm of convenience retail GFA over 23 stores. The core market currently generates around $10m of total retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of $14m (or 37%) by 2053, subject to the caveat outlined in the preceding paragraph.

sustainable levels by around 1,000sqm though this difference is anticipated to be in equilibrium by 2053. This excess is due to the large stretch of shops along Devon Street East that are being supported at a subregional level, rather than just a local level.

Recommendation

ision as significant opportunity for expansion of the convenience centre exists. However, if increased residential densities are enabled through the District Plan process, then a more elevated status might be more appropriate depending on potential yields resulting from any residential up zoning.

11.3. HURDON

FIGURE 18: HURDON CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 4,560 2020 $9 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 6,030 2053 $14

Nominal Growth 1,470 Nominal Growth $5

Percentage Growth 32% Percentage Growth 57%

Sustainable Households 2020 1,780 2020 1,616 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 2,500 2053 2,332

Nominal Growth 720 Nominal Growth 717

Percentage Growth 40% Percentage Growth 44%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 4

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 1,730

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 2,332

Future GFA Required 602

Source: Property Economics.

Hurdon is a suburb of New Plymouth located southwest of the city centre and is populated by around 4,600 people living in approximately 1,800 households. Both population and household

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growth are forecast to experience higher growth (32% and 40%, respectively) to the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

The centre generates enough convenience retail expenditure on an annualised basis to sustain an estimated 1,500 sqm of retail GFA. This is forecast to grow to around 2,300 sqm of GFA by 2053.

Recommendation

falls short of satisfying future retail demand by only 600sqm. This is not a significant shortfall and will likely not impact the need to effectuate additional convenience zoning for the Hurdon area over the life of the PDP.

11.4. INGLEWOOD

FIGURE 19: INGELWOOD CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 6,940 2020 $13 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 9,550 2053 $22

Nominal Growth 2,610 Nominal Growth $9

Percentage Growth 38% Percentage Growth 64%

Sustainable Households 2020 2,650 2020 2,459 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 3,890 2053 3,694

Nominal Growth 1,240 Nominal Growth 1,235

Percentage Growth 47% Percentage Growth 50%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 64

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 4,023

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 3,694

Future GFA Required -329

Source: Property Economics.

Inglewood is a township located 16 km southeast of New Plymouth and is populated by around 6,900 people living in approximately 2,700 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience higher growth (38% and 47%, respectively) to the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

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The centre currently has close to 64 convenience retail stores and 4,000 sqm of convenience GFA. The core market currently generates around $13m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 64% by 2053 to $22m.

Given demand, Inglewood can sustain 2,500sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth of 50% to around 3,700 sqm by 2053. Current supply for the convenience centre is exceeding current GFA requirements by around 1,500 sqm. The future convenience GFA requirements of 4,400 will be approximately in equilibrium with the current supply.

Recommendation

Inglewood requires no change to its current convenience retail provision, i.e. retail requirements to 2053 can be comfortably satisfied with existing centre provisions.

11.5. MERRILANDS

FIGURE 20: MERRILANDS CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 7,370 2020 $14 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 8,620 2053 $20

Nominal Growth 1,250 Nominal Growth $6

Percentage Growth 17% Percentage Growth 39%

Sustainable Households 2020 2,930 2020 2,611 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 3,640 2053 3,334

Nominal Growth 710 Nominal Growth 723

Percentage Growth 24% Percentage Growth 28%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 15

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 709

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 3,334

Future GFA Required 2,625

Source: Property Economics.

Merrilands is a suburb located to the southeast of the New Plymouth City Centre and is populated by just over 7,400 people living in approximately 2,900 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience proportionately similar growth in population

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but faster growth in households (17% and 24%, respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

The centre currently has around 700 sqm of convenience retail GFA and less than 5 stores. The core market currently generates around $14m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 39% to $20m by 2053.

Given demand, Merrilands can sustain around 2,600 sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth out to 2053 to a total of over 3,300 sqm. The centre contains a New World which

more convenience retailing than currently exists.

Recommendation

Merrilands can support an increase in convenience retail provision, in addition to the existing New World supermarket, of approximately 0.6-0.7ha land by 2053. There is also potential for the New World to increase in size to better meet future market requirements.

11.6. MOTUROA

FIGURE 21: MOTUROA CONVENIENCE Convenience Population 2020 4,750 2020 $9 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 5,470 2053 $13

Nominal Growth 720 Nominal Growth $4

Percentage Growth 15% Percentage Growth 42%

Sustainable Households 2020 1,980 2020 1,619 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 2,450 2053 2,116

Nominal Growth 470 Nominal Growth 497

Percentage Growth 24% Percentage Growth 31%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 20

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 1,630

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 2,116

Future GFA Required 486

Source: Property Economics.

Moturoa is a suburb located west of New Plymouth city centre. It is populated by around 4,800 people living in approximately 2,000 households. Both population and household growth are

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forecast to grow slower (15% and 24%, respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

20 convenience stores and around 1,600 sqm of convenience retail GFA. It generates $9m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 42% to $13m by 2053.

Given demand, Moturoa can currently sustain around 1,600 sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth to almost 2,100sqm by 2053 is in equilibrium with the current sustainable levels.

Recommendation

Moturoa requires no change to its current convenience retail provision. There is a small shortfall by 2053 that is unlikely to trigger a need for additional retail land over the life of the PDP.

11.7. ŌAKURA

FIGURE 22: ŌAKURA CONVENIENCE Convenience Population 2020 2,740 2020 $5 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 3,480 2053 $8

Nominal Growth 740 Nominal Growth $3

Percentage Growth 27% Percentage Growth 51%

Sustainable Households 2020 990 2020 971 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 1,360 2053 1,346

Nominal Growth 370 Nominal Growth 375

Percentage Growth 37% Percentage Growth 39%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 13

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 772

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 1,346

Future GFA Required 574

Source: Property Economics.

akura is a small township located southwest of New Plymouth. It is populated by around 2,700 people living in approximately 990 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to grow at a faster rate (27% and 37%, respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

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13 stores in 772 sqm of convenience retail GFA. It generates around $5m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 51% to $8m by 2053.

Given demand, akura can sustain around 971sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth by 2053 to over 1,346 sqm.

Recommendation

akura is unlikely to require any increase in its retail provision over the life of the PDP as the long-term provision only just falls short of the sustainable levels.

11.8. ŌKATO

FIGURE 23: ŌKATO CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 1,460 2020 $3 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 1,600 2053 $4

Nominal Growth 140 Nominal Growth $1

Percentage Growth 10% Percentage Growth 30%

Sustainable Households 2020 540 2020 517 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 630 2053 619

Nominal Growth 90 Nominal Growth 102

Percentage Growth 17% Percentage Growth 20%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 4

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 402

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 619

Future GFA Required 217

Source: Property Economics.

kato is a small rural township located southwest of New Plymouth. It is populated by just under 1,500 people living in approximately 500 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to grow proportionately slower (10% and 17% respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively) out to 2053.

GFA. generates $3m of convenience retail expenditure annually, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 30% to $4m by 2053.

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Given demand, kato can sustain around 500sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth to around 600sqm by 2053.

Recommendation

kato requires no change to its current convenience retail provision, i.e. retail requirements to 2053 can be satisfied with current provisions.

11.9. SPOTSWOOD

FIGURE 24: SPOTSWOOD CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 6,880 2020 $13 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 8,570 2053 $20

Nominal Growth 1,690 Nominal Growth $6

Percentage Growth 25% Percentage Growth 48%

Sustainable Households 2020 2,790 2020 2,437 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 3,640 2053 3,315

Nominal Growth 850 Nominal Growth 877

Percentage Growth 30% Percentage Growth 36%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 4

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 280

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 3,315

Future GFA Required 3,035

Source: Property Economics.

Spotswood is a suburb of New Plymouth located west of the city centre, and is populated by just under 6,900 people living in approximately 2,800 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience similar growth (25% and 30%, respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively).

The convenience activity currently has less than 300sqm of convenience retail GFA, however the centres core market currently generates around $13m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 48% by 2053. This brings the annual convenience expenditure of Spotswood to around $20m by 2053.

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Given demand, Spotswood can sustain around 2,400 sqm of convenience retail GFA. This is forecast to grow to just over 3,300 sqm of GFA by 2053 indicating that it can support higher

Recommendation

Spotswood can support an increase in convenience retail provision, in addition to the existing Countdown supermarket, of approximately 0.7-0.8ha by 2053. Adjacent to the existing Countdown is the most efficient locale for this expansion to occur to maximise consolidation benefits (outlined in section 14).

11.10. VOGELTOWN

FIGURE 25: VOGELTOWN CONVENIENCE Convenience Population 2020 6,610 2020 $13 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 8,580 2053 $20

Nominal Growth 1,970 Nominal Growth $7

Percentage Growth 30% Percentage Growth 54%

Sustainable Households 2020 2,730 2020 2,342 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 3,780 2053 3,319

Nominal Growth 1,050 Nominal Growth 977

Percentage Growth 38% Percentage Growth 42%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 9

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 446

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 3,319

Future GFA Required 2,873

Source: Property Economics.

Vogeltown 6,600 people living in approximately 2,700 households (rounded). Both population and household growth are forecast to experience faster growth (30% and 38% respectively) compared to the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively).

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The catchment currently has around only 500sqm of retail GFA, despite that the core market currently generating around $13m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 54% by 2053. Vogeltown is anticipated to generate around $20m of annual convenience expenditure by 2053.

Given demand, Vogeltown can sustain around 2,300 sqm of convenience retail GFA with growth by 2053 forecast to reach over 3,300 sqm.

Recommendation

Vogeltown can support an increase in convenience centre land provision of 0.7-0.8ha. This will increase the sufficiency of the current retail provision and allow anticipated growth within the Vogeltown catchment. As there are a number of centres in Vogeltown, further expansion of one or more of the existing centres would be preferable to the creation of a new centre to mitigate the dispersion of commercial activity.

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11.11. WAITARA

FIGURE 26: WAITARA CONVENIENCE Convenience Population 2020 8,550 2020 $17 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 9,830 2053 $23

Nominal Growth 1,280 Nominal Growth $6

Percentage Growth 15% Percentage Growth 37%

Sustainable Households 2020 3,270 2020 3,029 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 4,140 2053 3,802

Nominal Growth 870 Nominal Growth 773

Percentage Growth 27% Percentage Growth 26%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 59

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 4,737

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 3,802

Future GFA Required -935

Source: Property Economics.

Waitara is located northeast of New Plymouth and is populated by almost 8,600 people living in approximately 3,300 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience proportionately slower growth (15% and 27%, respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively).

The centre currently has over 4,700sqm of convenience retail GFA across 59 stores and the core market currently generates around $17m of convenience retail expenditure. This is projected to experience 37% growth in the market to $23m by 2053.

Given demand, Waitara can sustain around 3,000sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth to a total of over 3,800 sqm by 2053.

Recommendation

Waitara requires no change to its current convenience retail provision. The current status of Waitara shows a net over provision of convenience retail and this over provision is anticipated to continue over the long-term, out to 2053.

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11.12. WESTOWN

FIGURE 27: WESTOWN CONVENIENCE

Convenience Population 2020 4,370 2020 $8 Retail Expenditure ($m) 2053 4,720 2053 $11

Nominal Growth 350 Nominal Growth $2

Percentage Growth 8% Percentage Growth 28%

Sustainable Households 2020 1,870 2020 1,548 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 2,150 2053 1,826

Nominal Growth 280 Nominal Growth 277

Percentage Growth 15% Percentage Growth 18%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 29

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 2,150

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 1,826

Future GFA Required -324

Source: Property Economics.

Westown is a suburb of New Plymouth and located southwest of the city centre. It is populated by 4,400 people living in approximately 1,900 households. Both population and household growth are forecast to experience proportionately slower growth (8% and 15%, respectively) than the wider New Plymouth District (23% and 28%, respectively).

Westtown currently has around 29 convenience retail stores and around 2,150sqm of convenience retail GFA. The suburb generates $8m of convenience retail expenditure, with projected annual expenditure growth in the market of 28% to $11m by 2053.

Given demand, Westown can sustain around 1,500sqm of convenience retail GFA with forecast growth to 1,800sqm by 2053 current convenience retail provision exceeds 2053 GFA requirements by around 600 types which when combined equates to almost 50% of total stores at the time of the audit.

Recommendation

Westown requires no change to its current convenience retail provision, i.e. retail requirements to 2053 can be comfortably satisfied with current provisions.

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11.13. WOODLEIGH

FIGURE 28: WOODLEIGH CONVENIENCE Retail Population 2020 3,270 2020 $6 Expenditure ($m)

2053 3,050 2053 $7

Nominal Growth -220 Nominal Growth $1

Percentage Growth -7% Percentage Growth 11%

Sustainable Households 2020 1,250 2020 1,159 Convenience GFA (sqm) 2053 1,230 2053 1,180

Nominal Growth -20 Nominal Growth 21

Percentage Growth -2% Percentage Growth 2%

Demand / Supply Differential

Total Number of Existing Stores 5

Total GFA of Existing Stores (sqm) 580

Sustainable Convenience GFA in 2053 (sqm) 1,180

Future GFA Required 600

Source: Property Economics.

Vogeltown. The suburb is home to around 3,300 people living in around 1,300 homes. The fringe suburb is anticipated to experience moderate growth with population and household growth forecast to experience negative growth -7% and -2%, respectively, compared to the wider New Plymouth District of 23% and 28%, respectively. This suggests that residential growth in this area is anticipated to be constrained.

Woodleigh has just 5 convenience stores over around 580sqm of retail GFA. Woodleigh generates around $6m is convenience retail expenditure annually and is anticipated to generate around $7m annually by 2053. This is equivalent to 11% growth in the convenience retail market of Woodleigh.

Given demand, Woodleigh can sustain around 1,200sqm of convenience retail GFA currently and this is anticipated to remain at this level, due to increased retail expenditure and in spite of reduced population. GFA to 1,500sqm by 2053.

Recommendation

Woodleigh does not require additional convenience retail land as the net level of sustainable is not significantly different to the current provision, now and in the future.

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NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

This section identifies recent trends in NPD employment trends. This informs the current dominant sectors in NPD and the recent performance of those sectors. Additionally, the historic performance of commercial employment is used to inform future growth in the commercial sector.

Property Economics utilises the most up to date version of the ANZSIC system as guidance, whereby businesses are assigned an industry according to their predominant economic activity. The employment base has been aggregated into four core categories Industrial, Retail, Commercial and Other. A breakdown of what ANZSIC activity has been included in each category has been set out Appendix 2.

Figure 29 identifies the employment trends of NPD on a temporal basis from 2000-2020 to highlight the changing composition of the New Plymouth market by sector over the last two

employment trends.

FIGURE 29: NEW PLYMOUTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR

Source: Stats NZ, Property Economics.

Overall, total employment in the District has experienced net growth of 47% over the 2000- 2020 period, from 25,900 people employed in 2000 to around 37,990 in 2020.

The industrial sector has experienced the highest level of growth, both nominally and proportionally, with an increase of over 3,589 employees, or 42% increase in employment base since 2000.

Other employment accounts for the highest proportion of employment in NPD and accounts for 11,420 employees, or around 30% of total employment. The Industrial sector contributes the second highest proportion of employment within NPD with 11,281 employees, also around 30% of total employment.

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Both Commercial and Retail employment have lagged the other sectors but have experienced a significant level of growth in the last two years. Commercial employment grew by 846 additional employees over the 2018 2020 period, this is equivalent to an increase of around 10% of the 2018 commercial employment level. Retail employment grew by 295 employees, this is equivalent to around 5% of the 2018 retail employment level.

12.1. NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

The following figure identifies the New Plymouth CBD extent for the purpose of identifying the

Centre Zone and Mixed-Use Zone.

FIGURE 30: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EXTENT

Source: New Plymouth District Council, Stats NZ, Bing.

The figure shows that growth in employment has been static, or even negative, among most employment sectors within the CBD. The exception being Commercial employment which has seen a large boost in employment over the most recent past (2018 2020), going from 3,872 employees to 4,502.

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Retail employment in the CBD has only seen marginal growth over the same period (2018 2020) and has not reached the same level of employment as the pre-GFC peak. Retail employment within the CBD has seen lower levels of annual growth since around 2004. This may be the result of a significant level of outer of centre retail development that has occurred in NPD around this time, such as The Valley Mega Centre development, and may have reduced the impetus to develop / maintain retail within the CBD.

FIGURE 31: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2020)

Source: Stats NZ, Property Economics.

The following figure shows the proportion of employment within the CBD by sector. Across all sectors, the proportion of employment located within the New Plymouth CBD has declined since the turn of the millennium.

While a reduction in the proportion of District wide employment is what would be expected from a growing district, it could also indicate that not enough of the employment growth is being directed towards the CBD particularly as the proportion of commercial and retail employment, the two primary CBD employment sectors, have declined in proportion the fastest over the 2000 2020 period.

This is particularly relevant in the context of the pipeline Ravensdown site development. The proposed development represents an unlocking of around 7.4ha of industrial land to allow retail where a large retail centre and hotel could be developed. This activity may have otherwise been directed to the CBD and could have represented a significant boost in profile and amenity.

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FIGURE 32: PROPORTION OF CBD EMPLOYMENT TO NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (2000 – 2020)

Source: Stats NZ, Property Economics.

12.2. DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT

The following figure identifies the distribution of commercial and retail employment within New Plymouth City in the most recent year, 2020. Each point represents a Meshblock5 and is sized by the number of Retail and Commercial employees working within that Meshblock. This identifies the key strategic employment nodes for commercial and retail employment within New Plymouth City.

The Meshblocks with less than 100 employees were ignored for this analysis.

The CBD is the largest hub of Commercial and Retail Employment within New Plymouth City.

the presence of the LFR centre and would expand if the Bluehaven development on the former

Commercial employment supporting Taranaki Base Hospital, this node has a further 1,200 employees working in Other employment categories (not pictured).

5 Meshblocks are the smallest geographic unit maintained by Stats NZ for the publication of Census data.

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FIGURE 33: DISTRIBUTION OF NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL AND RETAIL EMPLOYMENT

(2020)

Source: Stats NZ, ESRI.

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COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Property Economics have projected commercial employment for NPD out to 2053 by factoring in a number of changing labour force participation rates over the period. The key inputs utilised in these projection series are the latest Statistics NZ High Growth series projections (2021 release) and Stats NZ business demography data (2020).

This section also translates the employment forecasts (by category based on 2nd level ANZSIC categories) into land requirements based on dynamic employment to land ratios in line with the NPS UD guidelines.

The sector projected employment for the following areas is based on a variety of factors including:

• National and Regional GDP and employment projections • Population projections these are key both to labour force projections and population based employment. • Labour Force projections (skilled / unskilled) • • Trended growth from the past 16 years • Economic development directions • Locational criteria by sector • National / Regional and local supply of inputted goods and location of market • Business sector analysis • Increasing working age

The following figure shows the results of Property Economics Commercial Employment modelling.

There is projected growth in Commercial sector employment of 4,304 employees over the assessed period. The anticipated employment level of commercial employees within NPD in 2053 is anticipated to be in the order of 13,260. This is equivalent to an additional 130 Commercial sector employees on average per annum over the next 33 years.

Over a short-term horizon, there is anticipated growth of an additional 569 employees out to 2023. This is equivalent to an additional 190 commercial sector employees on average over the next three years. The total commercial sector employment in 2023 is anticipated to be in the order of 9,500.

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FIGURE 34: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN NPD (2018 – 2053)

Source: Property Economics, Stats NZ.

13.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS

To factor localised commercial activity into the New Plymouth centre, Table 4 calculates the potential level of commercial land demand for New Plymouth over the forecast period. It is important to note that the figures in the tables are net and do not include servicing requirements and are rounded to the nearest whole number for ease of understanding.

It is also prudent to be aware that these figures are based upon the current business environment. Any legislative changes that would impact upon the relative competitiveness of this environment are likely to alter these projections.

This is based on single level commercial activity and would be reduced if a greater level of multi-storied commercial buildings were developed.

The table following projects the additional commercial floor space requirements needed to meet the forecast growth in employment in the commercial sector out to 2053 based on a base year of 2020.

Given this small requirement (on a comparative basis), this can comfortably be accommodated within the New Plymouth CBD Core area with redevelopment of zoned sites and use of existing vacant commercial GFA, and no additional zoned land is likely required during the life of this District Plan.

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TABLE 10: COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE AND LAND REQUIREMENTS IN NEW PLYMOUTH (2020-2053)

Commercial Sector GFA and Land 2023 2028 2053 Required

Cumulative Floorspace Requirements 22,752 47,164 134,446 (GFA)

Cumulative Land Requirements (Ha) 5.7 11.8 33.6

Total Land Requirement + NPS Buffer (ha) 6.8 14.2 39.2

Source: Property Economics.

This land requirements represents if all of this GHFA was developed at grade. This would represent an inefficient and unrealistic outcome for this activity type. Applying a 2-3 storey average across this new provision would lower the land requirement to circa 10-15ha. Whilst not all attributable to the CBD, albeit the most significant proportion would be, this could comfortably be accommodated in the existing commercial zone provision.

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ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AGGOMERATED COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY

This section outlines some of the high-level benefits of agglomerated commercial activity from an economic perspective as it relates to NPD. These benefits should be given due consideration when developing appropriate policy in the PDP.

Agglomerated commercial activity refers to commercial businesses locating within prescribed, zoned areas as opposed to dispersal of commercial activity where businesses establish outside of the prescribed centre network.

In part, commercial activity is often restricted to certain zones due to factors associated with the dispersal of commercial activity. Such factors have certain economic costs that not only have an effect on the individual making the decision, but the wider community as a whole. These factors can be defined as social costs and result in individuals not directly related to an action incurring costs related to that action.

l to outweigh the private benefit obtained from the decision. Whereas an individual participant in a market considers the private benefit of their decision, they do not always consider the social costs.

The failure of the market to identify social costs may conceal the true value of centres and is likely to result in an inefficient use of resources. Therefore, exogenous intervention in markets may be required to maximise social wellbeing and land use efficiency.

The economic benefits are approached through a mitigation of costs from dispersal of commercial activity. The benefits of consolidating commercial activity through PDP policy mitigates or removes this cost.

This section of the report does not quantify the identified economic benefits but rather provides a high level overview to better inform policy prescriptions when developing the PDP.

The benefits discussed in the following section include:

• Improved centre amenity; and • Improved productivity; and • Improved infrastructure efficiency; and • Improved transport network efficiency; and • Increased competitiveness; and • Increased development impetus.

14.1. IMPROVED CENTRE AMENITY

The amenity of a centre is directly related to its vitality and vibrancy, which in turn has a strong correlation with the level and potential level of people within a centre. Alternative new

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commercial provision outside of existing centres is likely to cause a reduction in the competitiveness of existing centres, hence reducing the patronage in existing centres.

A loss of patronage to a centre is not only likely to result in decreased infrastructure efficiencies and a fall in in-centre activities but is very likely to reduce the value residents place on the vibrancy and sense of community achieved there. In terms of the New Plymouth City Centre, this is likely to reduce the marketability and competitive nature of the remaining commercial provision.

These losses of vibrancy and sense of community can potentially result in significant losses in social value. This loss in social value is likely to occur as a result of two primary factors. The first, through diminished vibrancy and sense of place / community lost from the city centre.

The second, shifting the balance for other businesses which are likely to reassess their locational choices away from the City Centre due to lower centre amenity. This includes existing businesses in the City Centre and businesses which would have otherwise located in the City Centre. This is a direct economic cost associated with dispersed commercial activity.

This loss in value is not restricted to what is lost at present as a result of dispersed commercial activity, but what the community could achieve if commercial activity were to be consolidated.

14.2. IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY

Increased densities and consolidation leads to synergies, improved flow, economies of scale and efficient utilisation of resources.

An economy has the potential to observe improved productivity if consolidating commercial activity into centres. Centres provide a base for a collection of activity sufficient to facilitate the development of a critical mass. Allowing commercial activity to disperse may result in this critical mass not being achieved and the potential loss of this benefit.

There are varying levels of these benefits given the overall size and role of a centre within an

benefit from agglomeration. Being the pre-eminent commercial centre in NPD, the New Plymouth City Centre represents an opportunity for agglomeration benefits to be obtained to a degree that will create a more productive economy. This is likely to improve community wellbeing and result in greater levels of competitiveness for the district as a whole.

14.3. IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE EFFICIENCY

The provision of community facilities and infrastructure is a social investment. The justification for this investment is the social value that these services and facilities provide to the community. If this value is considered to be significant enough, community infrastructure is publicly funded

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and supplied. The reason they are publicly supplied is because given their social value, the free

Community facilities are provided as they generate a social benefit for the community. To undermine their use through dispersal diminishes the social benefit they might provide.

Examples of community infrastructure include the library, police station, community centres, and community halls, etc. These are generally provided in centres with high activity so as to coincide with retail and other uses. The scale of these facilities also coincides with the scale of activity located within the centre. New Plymouth City Centre is a prime example of this, with the

The disbenefit associated with dispersed commercial activity arises from the potential decreased use of social assets in existing centres. Decreased use of existing centres is often synonymous with decreased use of existing public assets, due to the location of these assets within centres.

In general, the greater the level of activity and accessibility in a centre, the greater the utilisation of such public assets. A greater commercial profile in the New Plymouth City Centre for example, would be more likely to increase patronage to the City Centre. This in turn would facilitate increased use of existing community infrastructure. Conversely, dispersed commercial activity is likely to result in decreased patronage of the New Plymouth City Centre. This decreased patronage is likely to result in decreased usage of community infrastructure.

Since these community facilities have a base upkeep cost to maintain (i.e. fixed costs) a greater levels of use lowers the marginal costs of maintaining the facilities. Additionally, the dispersal of additional community facilities increases the fixed costs of maintenance at a greater marginal cost of use.

Consolidating commercial activity allows for a greater level of consolidation of community facilities and infrastructure and thus a improved infrastructure efficiency.

14.4. TRANSPORT EFFICIENCIES

Transport efficiencies often arise as a result of the agglomeration of activities. These efficiencies are fundamental when considering the economic costs and benefits associated with the dispersal of economic activity. Benefits are inherently linked to the level of accessibility of activities and assets. This applies to both commercial activity and community facilities.

Efficient transportation networks provide obvious benefits to the community that are often not considered in private decisions. These benefits include:

• Reduced public costs for roading and transport infrastructure (reducing the need for duplication); and • Reduced pollution; and

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• Increased certainty around public and private sector infrastructure investment; and • • Increased propensity to use public transport.

These potential benefits are subverted under a situation where commercial activity is dispersed.

However, there are some minor benefits associated with dispersed commercial activity which somewhat offset these dis-benefits. Consolidated commercial activity has the potential to generate traffic congestion, thereby reducing the benefits attributable to these locations while increasing economic costs in terms of reduced convenience and increased travel times.

In terms of transportation efficiency, given the infrastructure and traffic conditions that currently exist in NPD, it is unlikely that this crowding out effect will be significant enough to offset the economic benefits associated with consolidated commercial activity.

14.5. INCREASED DEVELOPMENT IMPETUS

Greater levels of consolidated commercial activity increase the impetus for (re)development, particularly higher density development that is able to co-locate with the consolidated commercial activity.

Consolidate commercial activity provides the local area with a greater level of amenity, greater access to jobs, and a better quality retail experience. This increases the value of the land within and surrounding the centre which drives a development impetus to leverage off these existing benefits and increase development.

Residential development adjacent to centres is often constructed at higher densities (terraced houses / apartments) to leverage off the high land values. Additional commercial development is also incentivised to develop to higher densities (2 or more storeys) to leverage off the higher value of centre zoned land and maximise the lands development potential.

These benefits do not occur when commercial activity is dispersed as a critical mass of synergised commercial activity is required to increased land values significantly.

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RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter is designed to identify some of the primary recommendations NPDC should consider addressing in their PDP based on the outcomes of research and analysis undertaken by Property Economics.

15.1. RETAIL

This section outlines the key retail recommendations:

• concentrating the development of new commercial (retail and office) activity in particular into the core Central City Zone.

• Encourage higher density residential development opportunities (apartments and terraced houses) in the Central City Zone, particularly in the periphery areas of the CBD. This is to increase the diversity of land uses within the central city area, increase housing choice in the market through diversified housing typologies, improve vibrancy and amenity of the central city area, and increase the economic vitality of the CBD.

• Implement a commercial centres hierarchy structure in the District Plan (or a version thereof) and encourage / facilitate appropriate retail and office development to establish in

each centre to play its role and function in the market more successfully. Any retail / commercial development outside of this network should be thoroughly tested and justified and proven to provide a net benefit to the community.

• Increase the convenience retail provision in the following centres:

o Merrilands (around 0.6-0.7ha)

o Spotswood (around 0.7-0.8ha, ideally adjacent to the Countdown supermarket if possible) o Vogeltown (around 0.7-0.8ha)

• central core area and enable a range of activities to establish in Waitara to help facilitate improved vitality and broaden its role, economic base and increase amenity to its market.

• Promote a minimum store / tenancy size in the large format centre at The Valley to a minimum of 450sqm GFA.

• Limit the number of retail stores / tenancies below 450sqm GFA in The Valley large format centre should be restricted to food and beverage retailers only.

• Discourage the development / establishment of store types from the retail sectors of Fashion Retailing (Clothing, Footwear and Personal Accessories) and Department Stores from The Valley large format centre.

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• Exclude the ANZSIC sector of Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies retailing from the definition of retail activities within the District Plan (or if defined as a Retail activity then these store types need to be treated differently to other retail stores in a policy context and where they are enabled to locate). These form part of the trade activity market of New Plymouth, albeit with a retail element, predominantly based on their size and locational requirements.

This sector is classified as a retail sector in the ANZSIC classification system, but practically stores in this sector generate a significant component of their sales from direct business to business transactions, and function quite differently to retail stores across the balance of the retail sectors. In essence, stores in this sector typically perform, locate and operate like trade stores.

15.2. INDUSTRIAL

In addition to this retail centre and commercial market assessment, Property Economics has

produced in the New Plymouth District Industrial Land Demand Assessment Report, June 2021).

The key findings and recommendations for the Industrial sector are summarised below. Industrial employment has experienced a slow growth profile within the District over the last 5 years. Employment forecast modelling projects net industrial sector employment growth of around 3,264 employees by 2053, above the 2020 base year.

• Translating this level of employment growth into land demand and factoring in infrastructure requirements and long-term NPS UDC buffer of 15% results in a land requirement of 138ha by 2053. • This however could be reduced with occupation / reutilisation of vacant industrial buildings, or currently underdeveloped / inefficiently developed industrial land that could absorb a portion of this growth. • This high-level net industrial demand forecast needs to be considered by Council in the context of the existing industrial zoned land provision, its location geospatially and vacancy.

industrial zoned land gets absorbed by non-industrial activities, then the additional industrial land requirement may be higher than projected. • As such, Council should tighten the range of activities that can establish on industrial zone land in the district to reinforce the integrity of the zone and ensure the provision is not consumed by development of non-industrial activity. • Council should establish an ongoing monitoring regime that reviews land capacity and vacancy annually) to ensure any unforeseen growth / large developments or business closures / relocations are not able to skew market dynamics in one particular direction, and ensure vacant land (viable capacity) is appropriately located to meet market requirements.

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APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

New Plymouth Taranaki Region New Zealand District Population 86,070 124,570 5,083,150 Households 33,810 49,090 1,832,790 Person Per Household Ratio 2.55 2.54 2.77

GENERAL Intercensal Population Growth (Total | % p.a.) 6,236 | 1.6% 7,657 | 1.3% 462,280 | 2.0%

0 - 9 Years 14% 14% 13% 10 - 19 Years 13% 13% 13% 20 - 29 Years 11% 11% 14% 30 - 39 Years 12% 12% 13% 40 - 49 Years 13% 13% 13% 50 - 59 Years 13% 13% 13%

60 - 69 Years 12% 12% 10% AGEPROFILE 70 - 79 Years 8% 7% 7% 80 Years and Over 5% 4% 4% Median Age 40.9 39.9 37.4

$20,000 or less 10% 10% 9% $20,001-$30,000 12% 12% 10% $30,001-$50,000 17% 17% 15% $50,001-$70,000 14% 15% 13% $70,001-$100,000 16% 16% 16% $100,001-$150,000 18% 17% 19% $150,001 or more 14% 12% 18%

HOUSEHOLDINCOME Median Income $66,000 $64,000 $76,000

Asian 5% 4% 13% European 75% 74% 62% Maori 16% 17% 15% Middle Eastern Latin American African 1% 1% 1%

New Zealander 1% 1% 1% ETHNICITY Other Ethnicity 1% 1% 1% Pacific Peoples 2% 2% 7%

No qualification 22% 24% 18% Overseas secondary school qualification 3% 3% 6% Level 1 certificate 13% 14% 11% Level 2 certificate 11% 12% 10% Level 3 certificate 10% 10% 11% Level 4 certificate 11% 11% 9% Level 5 diploma 5% 5% 5% Level 6 diploma 5% 5% 5% Bachelor degree and Level 7 qualification 11% 10% 15% Post graduate and honours degrees 5% 4% 6%

QUALIFICATIONATTAINMENT Masters degree 2% 2% 4% Doctorate degree 0% 0% 1%

Elsewhere in New Zealand 45% 46% 45% No fixed abode five years ago 0% 0% 0% Not born five years ago 7% 8% 7%

Overseas 4% 3% 8% YEARSAGO LOCATION 5 Same as usual residence 43% 43% 40%

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New Plymouth Taranaki Region New Zealand District Employed Full time 48% 48% 50% Employed Part time 16% 15% 15% NT Not in the Labour Force 33% 33% 31%

EMPLOYME Unemployed 4% 4% 4% 0 0 0 Clerical and Administrative Workers 11% 10% 11% Community and Personal Service Workers 9% 9% 10% Labourers 13% 15% 11% Machinery Operators and Drivers 6% 6% 6% Managers 18% 20% 18%

Professionals 21% 18% 23% EMPLOYMENT

CLASSIFICATION Sales Workers 8% 8% 9% Technicians and Trades Workers 14% 13% 12%

Wages, Salary, Commissions, Bonuses etc paid by my employer 58% 57% 61% Interest, Dividends, Rent, Other Investments 19% 17% 17% Jobseeker Support 6% 7% 6% New Zealand Superannuation or Veteran s Pension 21% 21% 17% Other government benefits, Payments or Pension 4% 4% 4% Other Sources of Income 1% 1% 2% Other Superannuation, Pensions or Annuities 2% 2% 2% Regular payments from ACC or a Private Work Accident Insurer 2% 2% 2% Self Employment or Business I own and work in 15% 16% 15% Sole Parent Support 2% 2% 2% Student Allowance 1% 1% 2% PERSONALINCOME SOURCES Supported Living Payment 2% 2% 2% No source of income during that time 6% 6% 6%

Accommodation and Food Services 6% 6% 7% Administrative and Support Services 4% 3% 5% Agriculture Forestry and Fishing 6% 11% 6% Arts and Recreation Services 1% 1% 2% Construction 10% 9% 9% Education and Training 7% 7% 8% Electricity Gas Water and Waste Services 1% 1% 1% Financial and Insurance Services 2% 2% 3% Health Care and Social Assistance 12% 10% 10% Information Media and Telecommunications 1% 1% 2% Manufacturing 12% 15% 10% Mining 3% 2% 0% Other Services 5% 4% 4%

INDUSTRYOFEMPLOYMENT Professional Scientific and Technical Services 8% 7% 10% Public Administration and Safety 4% 4% 5% Rental Hiring and Real Estate Services 2% 2% 2% Retail Trade 9% 8% 9% Transport Postal and Warehousing 4% 4% 4% Wholesale Trade 3% 3% 5%

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New Plymouth Taranaki Region New Zealand District Under $100 7% 7% 7% $100 - 149 10% 11% 9% $150 - 199 6% 9% 6% $200 - 299 29% 36% 18% $300 - 399 39% 29% 22% $400 - 499 7% 5% 17%

$500 - 599 1% 1% 10% WEEKLYPAID RENT $600 and over 1% 1% 10%

Dwelling held in a family trust 14% 14% 13%

G Dwelling not owned and not held in a family trust 30% 31% 35%

SHIP OWNER

DWELLIN Dwelling owned or partly owned 56% 55% 51%

Joined dwelling 11% 10% 15% Other private dwelling 0% 0% 1%

TYPE Private dwelling not further defined 0% 0% 0%

DWELLING Separate house 88% 90% 84%

Dwelling Under Construction 0% 0% 1% Empty Dwelling 4% 4% 5%

CY Occupied Dwelling 92% 91% 89% DWELLING OCCUPAN Residents Away 4% 4% 5%

One bedroom 4% 4% 6% Two bedrooms 19% 17% 19% Three bedrooms 48% 50% 44%

Four bedrooms 23% 23% 24% NUMBEROF BEDROOMS Five or more bedrooms 5% 5% 7%

Full time study 20% 20% 21%

G Not studying 78% 78% 76%

STUDYIN Part time study 3% 2% 3%

One usual resident 26% 27% 23% Two usual residents 36% 36% 33% Three usual residents 15% 15% 16% Four usual residents 14% 13% 16% Five usual residents 6% 6% 7% Six usual residents 2% 2% 3% Seven usual residents 1% 1% 1% HOUSEHOLDSIZE Eight or more usual residents 0% 0% 1% Number of usual residents unidentifiable 2% 3% 4%

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APPENDIX 2: BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS

Property Economics utilises the 2006 Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) as guidance, whereby businesses are assigned an industry according to their predominant economic activity.

A proportion of employees coded within industrial categories can work within other more commercial (office) arms of a business in other locations, i.e. employees in the sales branch of electrical companies are coded in the electricity, gas, water and waste services. Despite being in the industrial industry, these employees are technically not industrial employees, and as such.

For planning purposes commercial and industrial employees are those working on zoned business land corresponding their respective sector. Often this is not the case, whereby activities such as hospitals, schools, police services and etc. are classified under commercial services focused sectors but are typically not zoned as such. For this reason Property Economics has divided these classifications into industrial, commercial, retail and other sectors. These sectors correspond to the zoning of industrial, commercial, retail and special land zonings by the local authorities.

Industrial activities in general refer to land extensive activities, it includes part of the primary sector, largely raw material extraction industries such as mining and farming; the secondary sector, involving refining, construction, and manufacturing; and part of the tertiary sector, which involves distribution of manufactured goods. The employees work for the following sectors are considered an industrial sector employee:

10% of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

10% of Mining

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Manufacturing

30% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Commercial activities generally refer to land intensive activities. It includes a large proportion of the tertiary sector of an economy, which deals with services; and the quaternary sector, focusing on technological research, design and development. The employees work for the following sectors are considered a commercial sector employee:

15% of Accommodation and Food Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Financial and Insurance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

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Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Administrative and Support Services

35% Public Administration and Safety

15% Education and Training

25% Health Care and Social Assistance

25% Arts and Recreation Services

Retail Activities generally refer to units mainly engaged in the purchase and on-selling of goods, without significant transformation, to the general public. Retail units generally operate from premises located and designed to attract a high volume of walk-in customers, have an extensive display of goods, and/or use mass media advertising designed to attract customers.

Cafes bars and Restaurants have also been included as part of Retail Activities and includes units mainly engaged in providing food and beverage serving services for consumption on the premises. Customers generally order and are served while seated (i.e. waiter/waitress service) and pay after eating. The employees work for the following sectors are considered a commercial sector employee:

85% of Accommodation and Food Services

Retail Trade

Other Activities constitutes the balance of total employment within an area, and is not defined by any particular business sector. It encompasses community activities such as Museum Operations, Universities, Hospitals, Schools, Sports grounds and other activities not typically located on commercial or industrial land.

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APPENDIX 3: CONVENIENCE RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY

Examples of Convenience Centre commercial / retail.

Note this is not intended to represent an exhaustive list.

• Superette / Dairy • Fish shop • Butcher • Bakery • Post Shop / Stationery • Fruit & Vege Shop • Delicatessen • Cake Shop • Ice Cream Parlour • Liquor / Wine Shop • Takeaways (Fish & Chips, Pizza, etc.) • Cafés & Restaurants • Video store • Chemist • Newsagent • Pub / Bar • Florist • Camera / Photography Shop • Gift Shops • Optometrist • Locksmith • Hairdresser • Drycleaners • Doctors • Accountants • Physiotherapists • Medical practitioners • Dentists • Childcare facilities • Gym • Lawyers

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