NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT Project No: 51946 RETAIL & COMMERCIAL Date: June 2021 LAND ASSESSMENT Client: New Plymouth District Council W: www.propertyeconomics.co.nz E: [email protected] P: 09 479 9311 PO: Box 315596, Silverdale 0944 Document Set ID: 8557374 Version: 1, Version Date: 04/06/2021 SCHEDULE Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader 51946.5 June 2021 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne DISCLAIMER This document has been completed, and services rendered at the request of, and for the purposes of New Plymouth District Council only. Property Economics has taken every care to ensure the correctness and reliability of all the information, forecasts and opinions contained in this report. All data utilised in this report has been obtained by what Property Economics consider to be credible sources, and Property Economics has no reason to doubt its accuracy. Property Economics shall not be liable for any made in reliance of any report by Property Economics. It is the responsibility of all parties acting on information contained in this report to make their own enquiries to verify correctness. Front cover image source: Stuff.co.nz COPYRIGHT © 2021 Property Economics Limited. All rights reserved. CONTACT DETAILS Tim Heath Mob: 021 557713 Email: [email protected] Web: www.propertyeconomics.co.nz W: www.propertyeconomics.co.nz Document Set ID: 8557374 2 Version: 1, Version Date: 04/06/2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2. INFORMATION SOURCES ............................................................................................................................................... 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................................................10 RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS ............................................................................................................................ 13 3.1. COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT ................................................................................................................................... 13 3.2. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................. 15 3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION ......................................................................................................................................... 17 3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES AND CENTRES ............................................................................................. 18 3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS ................................................................................................................................................ 19 3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS ............................................................................................................................................. 19 NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET ................................................................................................................. 22 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ...................................................................................................................................................... 23 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH ................................................................................................................. 24 RETAIL DEMAND AND SUSTAINABLE GFA ................................................................................................................... 27 7.1. RETAIL GROWTH MODEL ............................................................................................................................................. 27 7.2. RETAIL EXPENDITURE ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 7.3. SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST ................................................................................................................................ 32 CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................................... 34 NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT SPENDING PATTERNS ............................................................................................... 39 9.1. DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPEND ......................................................................................................................... 40 9.2. ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPEND ........................................................................................................................................... 41 9.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS ........................................................................................................................................................... 43 SUPPLY AND DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL ............................................................................................................................ 45 CONVENIENCE CENTRE OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 46 11.1. BELL BLOCK ............................................................................................................................................................................ 48 11.2. FITZROY ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 11.3. HURDON ...................................................................................................................................................................................50 11.4. INGLEWOOD ........................................................................................................................................................................... 51 W: www.propertyeconomics.co.nz Document Set ID: 8557374 3 Version: 1, Version Date: 04/06/2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS 11.5. MERRILANDS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 52 11.6. MOTUROA ................................................................................................................................................................................ 53 11.7. AKURA .................................................................................................................................................................................... 54 11.8. KATO ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 55 11.9. SPOTSWOOD ......................................................................................................................................................................... 56 11.10. VOGELTOWN .......................................................................................................................................................................... 57 11.11. WAITARA ................................................................................................................................................................................... 59 11.12. WESTOWN .............................................................................................................................................................................. 60 11.13. WOODLEIGH ........................................................................................................................................................................... 61 NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ............................................................................................ 62 12.1. NEW PLYMOUTH CBD EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ......................................................................................... 63 12.2. DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT ......................................................................................................................... 65 COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................... 67 13.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS .............................................................................................................. 68 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AGGOMERATED COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY ...................................................... 70 14.1. IMPROVED CENTRE AMENITY ................................................................................................................................. 70 14.2. IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY ......................................................................................................................................... 71 14.3. IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE EFFICIENCY .................................................................................................. 71 14.4. TRANSPORT EFFICIENCIES ........................................................................................................................................