Cops Don't Stop Violence

COPSCOPS DON’TDON’T STOPSTOP VIOLENCEVIOLENCE COMBATINGCOMBATING NARRATIVESNARRATIVES USEDUSED TOTO DEFENDDEFEND POLICEPOLICE INSTEADINSTEAD OFOF DEFUNDINGDEFUNDING THEMTHEM CO-PRODUCED BY SUPPORTED BY TABLE OF CONTENTS Key Points ............................................................................................. 3 Introduction ........................................................................................... 4 The Facts ............................................................................................... 5 Decoupling from Defund ............................................................................6 What is Crime? ...................................................................................... 9 Some Key Points ........................................................................................9 Problems with Crime Statistics & Studies ........................................... 11 Cops Cause Violence ................................................................................12 Cops & Safety ...................................................................................... 14 Effect of Increased Police Presence .........................................................14 Effect of Police Response Times .............................................................. 15 After the Fact ...........................................................................................15 Using Crime Data to Drive Policing ..........................................................16 The Shift to “Community Policing” ...........................................................17 We Can Reduce Violence Without Cops ................................................ 18 Who Stops Violence? Violence Interrupters ...............................................19 Five Evidence-Based Strategies to Stop Violence ......................................20 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 22 APPENDIX: A Deeper Dive into Challenging The Research on Police and Crime ...................................................... 23 Problem 1: Measurement.........................................................................23 Problem 2: Community Selection Bias .....................................................26 Problem 3: The Wrong Questions ............................................................. 27 This report was written by Jared Knowles and Andrea J. Ritchie. We are grateful to Delores Jones Brown, Tamara Nopper, Brendan McQuade, Alec Karakatsanis, Niaz Kasravi, Mariame Kaba, and Wesley Ware for reviewing and contributing to this report. Design by Trevor Messersmith / 80east Design. 2 /// COPS DON’T STOP VIOLENCE KEY POINTS > Fearmongering about “crime” and > CRIME STATS: “violence” is an age-old tactic whenever police legitimacy, power, or resources are > Only reflect what is defined as a “crime” challenged. — which is a political decision. Who is policed and punished for crime is both > Politicians and pundits are conflating homicide, a political and police decision. Not all violence & crime — homicides have gone up, crime is violence, not all violence is other forms of violence have gone down. crime. > Experts suggest homicides are increasing > Are collected and reported by cops. due to pandemic and economic stress, increased gun sales, and closure of > Can be manipulated for public relations community institutions. purposes. > Spending pandemic recovery funds on > Don’t account for other social and policing runs contrary to addressing root economic factors that affect violence. causes of violence. > Most violence is not reported — so > The increase in homicides we are seeing stats and studies that show a decrease is not unprecedented — homicide rates in “crime” due to policing are not have been going up since 2014, and are accurately measuring effect on all equivalent to other periods in history where violence. police budgets were consistently increasing. > Compare apples and oranges by > The increase in homicides happened before generalizing results from unique any police department’s funding was cut, conditions and communities. and was seen in cities that both increased and decreased funds to police. > Only compare options involving more or less cops — don’t compare cops to > Cuts to police funding in 2020 represented other options. less than 1% of total annual expenditures on policing nationwide. Policymakers only > Research does show that increasing invested a fraction of those funds into community-based organizations reduces community-based safety strategies homicides without increasing violence through police. > Research does not conclusively show that cops decrease homicides, violence, or crime — and any relationship between increased policing and decreased crime is smaller than previously indicated and not sustainable over time. > Research does show cops increase violence. Combating Narratives Used to Defend Police Instead of Defunding Them /// 3 INTRODUCTION “SKYROCKETING MURDER RATES.” — THE NATIONAL FRATERNAL ORDER OF POLICE “An explosion of violent crime.” — SENATE MINORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL “Democrat-run cities across the country who cut funding for police have seen increases in crime.” — U.S. REP. PATRICK MCHENRY, R-N.C. Police are facing one of the greatest crises of legitimacy in a generation. In the wake of the largest uprisings in U.S. history, sparked by police violence, bloated police budgets, and the deadly impacts of a failure to invest in community health and safety laid bare by the pandemic, pro-police forces are on the defensive. So they are reaching for one of their most reliable weapons — fear. This is nothing new — cops and policymakers have always used fearmongering to push “law and order” agendas and pour more and more money into police departments. Now, with police budgets under scrutiny by campaigns to defund the police and refund our communities all across the country, lawmakers and the media are once again recycling old talking points about increasing violence and crime, claiming that campaigns to defund police are responsible . Police fraternal associations, police chiefs, and policymakers are using an uptick in homicides to whip up a frenzy of fear that a “crime wave” is sweeping the country — for which they blame campaigns to defund police — to justify continued increases in police spending. The facts simply don’t bear this out. 4 /// COPS DON’T STOP VIOLENCE THE FACTS President Biden cited a study showing a According to the John Jay Research Advisory 30% increase in homicides, a 6% increase in Group on Preventing and Reducing Community aggravated assaults and 8% increase in gun Violence, “Community violence is more prevalent assaults in 2020 over the previous year in 34 in neighborhoods where residents face severe U.S. cities to justify paving the way for much and chronic financial stress.”4 As outlined in needed pandemic relief funds to be poured into the recommendations of the COVID19 Policing police coffers instead of into the pockets of Project’s latest report, investment of funds in people struggling to survive.1 He recommended direct support and community-based safety that communities use $350 billion in funds from strategies, toward a just recovery, instead of the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package doubling down on policing, is more likely to to hire more cops.2 The White House has also produce lasting public safety.5 proposed an additional $300 million in the 2022 federal budget for COPS Hiring Program Second, neither the President nor the pundits grants to local police departments. citing an increase in homicides to justify more police funding mention that the same study First, spending pandemic relief funds on cops found that homicide rates remain well below instead of care is likely to fuel more violence, historic rates. It also found that robbery rates including police violence, rather than more fell by 9%, and property and drug crime rates, safety. It also runs contrary to the findings of with the exception of motor vehicle theft, fell the very report cited by the President, which significantly during 2020. Additionally, in 2020 concluded: residential burglaries decreased by 24%, nonresidential burglaries by 7%, larceny by [T]he pandemic has placed individuals 16%, and drug offenses by 30%.6 According to and institutions under tremendous strain, previously released FBI data, crime was down ultimately pushing homicide rates higher. overall in 2020 by about 6 percent, one of the In addition, the pandemic has impeded largest decreases in decades.7 outreach to at-risk individuals — a key component of most evidence-informed This illustrates the third key point, which is anti-violence strategies.3 that politicians and pundits are playing fast 1 Fact Sheet: Biden-Harris Administration Announces Comprehensive Strategy to Prevent and Respond to Gun Crime and Ensure Public Safety, June 23, 2021, available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/23/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-comprehensive- strategy-to-prevent-and-respond-to-gun-crime-and-ensure-public-safety/. For further analysis and demands that American Rescue Plan funds not be spent on law enforcement, see Community Resource Hub, Ensuring that Federal Stimulus Funds Support Care Not Cops, available at: https://communityresourcehub.org/wp-con- tent/uploads/2021/04/0407_CARES_ARPA_B.pdf and Divesting from Pandemic Policing and Investing in a Just Recovery, May 2021,

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