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Hoping for a stronger year Monthly InsighT 12 2015 Wonjae Park +822-768-3372 [email protected] Jonathan Hwang +822-768-4140 [email protected] Young Ryu +822-768-4138 [email protected] [email protected] Joon-ho Jang +822-768-3241 [email protected] Chul-joong Kim +822-768-4162 [email protected] Contents I. Key charts ....................................................................... 3 II. Investment strategy .......................................................... 4 III. Sector view ..................................................................... 9 IV. Think big .......................................................................... 17 V. Global IT navigation ......................................................... 25 VI. Key global peers ........................................................... 28 Spotlight stocks & other notable stocks ........................... 42 Monthly InsighT 2 I. Key charts Share performances & OP consensus revision rates PC DRAM (DDR3 4Gb 1,600MHz) spot and contract Semiconductor equipment book-to-bill ratios for the for Korean IT large caps (1M) prices have sharply decreased US and Japan (%) Share performance (1M, L) (%) (US$)Spread (R) Spot price (L) (%) US semiconductor 4Q15 OP consensus revision rate (R) Japan semiconductor 5 Contract price (L) 30 3.0 20 12.2 34.8 10 Japan display 2.5 October: 4 20 US semiconductor 0.98 10 5 2.0 Japan semiconductor 0.72 Japan display 1.87 3 10 1.5 0 0 - 1.0 2 0 -10 -5 0.5 1 -10 0.0 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: DRAMeXchange, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: SEMI, SEAJ, KDB Daewoo Securities Research LCD panel inventory trend SEC smartphone shipments MSCI IT index performance by country Shipments (L) (km2) Production Area (L) (%) (mn units) Galaxy (1/2012=100) QoQ (R) Galaxy Galaxy Note 4 16,000 Shipment Area (L) 15 120 YoY (R) Note 3 Galaxy 60% 240 MSCI US IT Note 2 Galaxy MoM inventory growth (R) Galaxy S6E+ MSCI Korea IT 10 Galaxy S6/E 220 Galaxy S5 Note 5 14,000 S4 MSCI Japan IT S3 200 5 80 30% MSCI Taiwan IT Galaxy QoQ 180 12,000 0 Note +13.5% 160 Galaxy -5 40 S2 0% 140 10,000 Galaxy S 120 -10 100 8,000 -15 0 -30% 80 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16F 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 Source: IHS, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 3 Monthly InsighT II. Investment strategy Large caps to outperform in light of risks related to F/X movement and year-end inventory clearing II. Investment strategy KDB Daewoo IT universe share performance September: +7.7% for spotlight stocks vs. 5.0% for other notable stocks Monthly InsighT cumulative returns Cumulative returns Avg. of spotlight stocks 7.7 Avg. of spotlight stocks 42.0 OCI Materials 18.2 Avg. of other notable stocks -41.9 KOSPI -3.7 SFA 13.2 KOSDAQ 20.7 (%) LG Innotek 7.4 Nov. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Spotlight Note: September 2014-November 2015 SEMCO 6.1 stocks Nov. SEC -6.4 Avg. of spotlight stocks 7.7 Avg. of other notable stocks 5.0 Avg. of other notable stocks 5.0 KOSPI -1.8 LGD 17.6 KOSDAQ 0.7 (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Samsung SDI 12.7 Oct. LGE 10.4 Avg. of spotlight stocks 5.3 Nov. Avg. of other notable stocks 3.1 SK Hynix 2.9 Other notable KOSPI 3.4 HTW -3.4 stocks KOSDAQ 0.8 (%) SSC -10.3 (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Monthly InsighT 5 II. Investment strategy Large caps to outperform in light of risks related to F/X movement and year-end inventory clearing ■ IT market Share performance & OP consensus revision rates for Korean IT large caps (1M) - Semiconductor: Memory prices slightly stabilized in November, but may fall further with the arrival of the off-season. Process migration of latecomers appears to be (%) Share performance (1M, L) 4Q15 OP consensus revision rate (R) (%) progressing slower than expected. 20 10 - Display: Price weakness continued in November. Expectations are growing for OLED, 12.2 34.8 but such anticipations are already priced in, and short-term earnings will likely remain weak. 10 5 - Mobile/components: Samsung Electronics (SEC) is expected to see relatively stable earnings despite unfavorable seasonality, supported by the release of mid-/low-end models. 0 0 - Demand should remain soft for most IT products, including PCs, TVs, and -98.9 smartphones. -10 -5 ■ Strategy: Focus on large caps 1) IT companies’ 4Q earnings will likely contract QoQ due to year-end destocking. 2) Among small/mid-caps, we believe investors should narrow their focus to companies with strong earnings visibility for 4Q. ■ Preferred stocks Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research - Large cap: SEC, Samsung SDI, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO), LG Innotek - Small/mid caps: Wonik IPS KDB Daewoo IT large-cap universe (W, %, x) Current Upside Share performance P/E P/B ROE Company Rating TP price (11/30) potential 1W 1M 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F SEC BUY 1,700,000 1,284,000 32.4 0.2 -6.4 10.5 10.0 1.2 1.1 12.2 11.7 Samsung SDI BUY 148,000 120,000 23.3 -5.5 12.7 26.3 5.4 0.7 0.6 2.7 12.3 SEMCO BUY 93,000 69,200 34.4 -2.0 6.1 67.4 19.8 1.2 1.1 1.8 6.0 LG Innotek BUY 123,000 99,600 23.5 -1.4 7.4 19.9 12.2 1.3 1.2 6.7 10.2 SK Hynix BUY 45,000 31,600 42.4 3.1 2.9 5.3 6.9 1.0 0.9 21.5 14.1 LG Display BUY 31,000 25,400 22.0 15.7 17.6 8.2 14.7 0.7 0.7 9.2 4.9 LGE BUY 70,000 54,200 29.2 -2.5 10.4 26.4 10.4 0.8 0.8 3.1 7.6 Hanwha Techwin BUY 49,000 36,050 35.9 -0.6 -3.4 50.5 15.7 1.0 0.9 2.1 6.0 Seoul Semiconductor BUY 24,000 17,050 40.8 -9.8 -10.3 46.8 19.6 1.7 1.6 3.8 8.6 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 6 II. Investment strategy Earnings forecast revisions for large caps in the KDB Daewoo IT universe (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F SEC Revenue 53,602 200,937 211,987 53,602 200,937 211,987 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 6,921 27,188 27,785 6,921 27,188 27,785 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 5,355 20,764 21,872 5,355 20,764 21,872 0.0 0.0 0.0 Samsung SDIRevenue 1,999 7,707 8,529 1,999 7,707 8,529 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 1 21 122 1 21 122 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 64 321 1,556 64 321 1,556 0.0 0.0 0.0 SEMCO Revenue 1,525 6,556 6,640 1,525 6,556 6,640 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 79 334 418 79 334 418 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 52 80 271 52 80 271 0.0 0.0 0.0 LG InnotekRevenue 1,716 6,263 6,400 1,716 6,263 6,400 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 63 241 322 63 241 322 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 35 118 194 35 118 194 0.0 0.0 0.0 SK Hynix Revenue 4,561 18,943 18,323 4,561 18,943 18,323 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 1,151 5,498 4,295 1,151 5,498 4,295 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 883 4,335 3,344 883 4,335 3,344 0.0 0.0 0.0 LG Display Revenue 7,357 28,245 28,761 7,357 28,245 28,761 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 212 1,777 1,050 212 1,777 1,050 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 111 1,103 619 111 1,103 619 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGE Revenue 14,951 56,900 57,817 14,951 56,900 57,817 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 286 1,129 1,850 286 1,129 1,850 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 98 371 941 98 371 941 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hanwha Revenue 785 2,643 2,902 785 2,643 2,902 0.0 0.0 0.0 Techwin OP 27 -18 104 27 -18 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 33 38 122 33 38 122 0.0 0.0 0.0 Seoul Revenue 258 1,014 1,161 258 1,014 1,161 0.0 0.0 0.0 Semiconductor OP 18 52 87 18 52 87 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 10 21 51 10 21 51 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 7 II. Investment strategy Consensus vs. KDB Daewoo estimates (Wbn, %) KDB Daewoo Consensus % diff. Notes 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F SEC Revenue 53,602 200,937 211,987 53,553 200,815 205,535 0.1 0.1 3.1 OP 6,921 27,188 27,785 6,797 27,038 26,974 1.8 0.6 3.0 NP 5,355 20,764 21,872 5,346 21,205 21,534 0.2 -2.1 1.6 Samsung SDIRevenue 1,999 7,707 8,529 1,888 7,261 7,285 5.9 6.1 17.1 OP 1 21 122 -1 -3 103 - - 18.5 Reflect proceeds from sale of the chemicals unit in NP 64 321 1,556 71 297 500 -9.4 8.0 211.5 2016 SEMCO Revenue 1,525 6,556 6,640 1,542 6,451 6,723 -1.1 1.6 -1.2 OP 79 334 418 77 345 402 3.4 -3.2 4.1 NP 52 80 271 57 104 283 -8.7 -23.8 -4.1 LG Innotek Revenue 1,716 6,263 6,400 1,757 6,311 6,705 -2.3 -0.8 -4.5 OP 63 241 322 74 254 331 -14.6 -4.9 -2.7 Unfavorable F/X NP 35 118 194 43 129 201 -19.3 -8.0 -3.7 SK Hynix Revenue 4,561 18,943 18,323 4,616 18,990 18,586 -1.2 -0.2 -1.4 OP 1,151 5,498 4,295 1,138 5,475 4,329 1.1 0.4 -0.8 NP 883 4,335 3,344 913 4,353 3,428 -3.3 -0.4 -2.5 LG Display Revenue 7,357 28,245 28,761 7,228 28,115 27,129 1.8 0.5 6.0 OP 212 1,777 1,050 195 1,758 994 9.0 1.1 5.6 NP 111 1,103 619 134 1,141 672 -17.1 -3.3 -7.9 LGE Revenue 14,951 56,900 57,817 14,849 56,629 58,688 0.7 0.5 -1.5 OP 286 1,129 1,850 290 1,110 1,423 -1.5 1.7 29.9 NP 98 371 941 124 400 678 -20.4 -7.2 38.7 Hanwha Revenue 785 2,643 2,902 707 2,560 2,708 11.1 3.2 7.2 Techwin OP 27 -18 104 15 -30 63 82.7 - 65.7 NP 33 38 122 23 23 84 43.8 62.9 45.4 Seoul Revenue 258 1,014 1,161 260 1,012 1,094 -0.6 0.2 6.1 Semiconductor OP 18 52 87 15 47 63 17.8 9.5 37.8 Improvement of Handset division NP 10 21 51 9 20 32 10.7 3.7 59.6 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 8 MonthlyMonthly InsighTTECH III.
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    The result of periodic review and component stocks of TOPIX Composite 1500(effective 31 October 2016) Published on 7 October 2016 1. Constituents Change Addition( 70 ) Deletion( 60 ) Code Issue Code Issue 1810 MATSUI CONSTRUCTION CO.,LTD. 1868 Mitsui Home Co.,Ltd. 1972 SANKO METAL INDUSTRIAL CO.,LTD. 2196 ESCRIT INC. 2117 Nissin Sugar Co.,Ltd. 2198 IKK Inc. 2124 JAC Recruitment Co.,Ltd. 2418 TSUKADA GLOBAL HOLDINGS Inc. 2170 Link and Motivation Inc. 3079 DVx Inc. 2337 Ichigo Inc. 3093 Treasure Factory Co.,LTD. 2359 CORE CORPORATION 3194 KIRINDO HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. 2429 WORLD HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. 3205 DAIDOH LIMITED 2462 J-COM Holdings Co.,Ltd. 3667 enish,inc. 2485 TEAR Corporation 3834 ASAHI Net,Inc. 2492 Infomart Corporation 3946 TOMOKU CO.,LTD. 2915 KENKO Mayonnaise Co.,Ltd. 4221 Okura Industrial Co.,Ltd. 3179 Syuppin Co.,Ltd. 4238 Miraial Co.,Ltd. 3193 Torikizoku co.,ltd. 4331 TAKE AND GIVE. NEEDS Co.,Ltd. 3196 HOTLAND Co.,Ltd. 4406 New Japan Chemical Co.,Ltd. 3199 Watahan & Co.,Ltd. 4538 Fuso Pharmaceutical Industries,Ltd. 3244 Samty Co.,Ltd. 4550 Nissui Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. 3250 A.D.Works Co.,Ltd. 4636 T&K TOKA CO.,LTD. 3543 KOMEDA Holdings Co.,Ltd. 4651 SANIX INCORPORATED 3636 Mitsubishi Research Institute,Inc. 4809 Paraca Inc. 3654 HITO-Communications,Inc. 5204 ISHIZUKA GLASS CO.,LTD. 3666 TECNOS JAPAN INCORPORATED 5998 Advanex Inc. 3678 MEDIA DO Co.,Ltd. 6203 Howa Machinery,Ltd. 3688 VOYAGE GROUP,INC. 6319 SNT CORPORATION 3694 OPTiM CORPORATION 6362 Ishii Iron Works Co.,Ltd. 3724 VeriServe Corporation 6373 DAIDO KOGYO CO.,LTD. 3765 GungHo Online Entertainment,Inc.
  • October 18, 2013

    October 18, 2013

    October 18, 2013 Korea Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) KT&G (Buy/TP: W94,000) KOSPI 2,052.40 11.79 0.58 Moving into safer territory KOSPI 200 271.24 1.65 0.61 KOSDAQ 525.69 4.17 0.80 Samsung C&T (Buy/TP: W78,000) Raise TP Growth back on track Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Woori I&S (Buy/TP: W15,500) Reinstate coverage KOSPI 252,614 4,375 Reclaiming lost glory KOSPI 200 72,325 3,703 KOSDAQ 289,725 1,559 Hanwha Corp. (Buy/TP: W49,000) Raise TP Market Cap (Wbn) Iraqi project progressing smoothly Value KOSPI 1,201,648 LG Display (Hold) KOSDAQ 122,843 A long, cold winter ahead KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Sector News & Analysis Foreign 1,320 1,011 309 Institutional 927 1,092 -165 Steel (Neutral) Retail 2,095 2,222 -128 Preparing for the Hyundai Steel & Hysco merger KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Economy & Strategy Update Foreign 122 59 63 Institutional 55 78 -23 Strategy Note Retail 1,382 1,423 -41 KOSPI moves in tandem with the won Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 820 626 193 KOSDAQ 22 17 4 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 457 343 85 KOSDAQ 546 358 78 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value NHN 640,000 30,000 260 KODEX LEVERAGE 13,040 120 234 Samsung Electronics 1,472,000 9,000 229 KODEX 200 27,055 105 176 Hyundai Motor 256,500 -8,000 171 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value INICIS 19,050 2,050 45 Sangsin Energy Display 8,000 1,040 41 Precision FASOO.COM 6,900 900 37 Celltrion 47,600 -350 33 CJ E&M 37,100 650 31 Note: As of October 18, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.