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Hanwha Techwin Hoping for a stronger year Monthly InsighT 12 2015 Wonjae Park +822-768-3372 [email protected] Jonathan Hwang +822-768-4140 [email protected] Young Ryu +822-768-4138 [email protected] [email protected] Joon-ho Jang +822-768-3241 [email protected] Chul-joong Kim +822-768-4162 [email protected] Contents I. Key charts ....................................................................... 3 II. Investment strategy .......................................................... 4 III. Sector view ..................................................................... 9 IV. Think big .......................................................................... 17 V. Global IT navigation ......................................................... 25 VI. Key global peers ........................................................... 28 Spotlight stocks & other notable stocks ........................... 42 Monthly InsighT 2 I. Key charts Share performances & OP consensus revision rates PC DRAM (DDR3 4Gb 1,600MHz) spot and contract Semiconductor equipment book-to-bill ratios for the for Korean IT large caps (1M) prices have sharply decreased US and Japan (%) Share performance (1M, L) (%) (US$)Spread (R) Spot price (L) (%) US semiconductor 4Q15 OP consensus revision rate (R) Japan semiconductor 5 Contract price (L) 30 3.0 20 12.2 34.8 10 Japan display 2.5 October: 4 20 US semiconductor 0.98 10 5 2.0 Japan semiconductor 0.72 Japan display 1.87 3 10 1.5 0 0 - 1.0 2 0 -10 -5 0.5 1 -10 0.0 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: DRAMeXchange, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: SEMI, SEAJ, KDB Daewoo Securities Research LCD panel inventory trend SEC smartphone shipments MSCI IT index performance by country Shipments (L) (km2) Production Area (L) (%) (mn units) Galaxy (1/2012=100) QoQ (R) Galaxy Galaxy Note 4 16,000 Shipment Area (L) 15 120 YoY (R) Note 3 Galaxy 60% 240 MSCI US IT Note 2 Galaxy MoM inventory growth (R) Galaxy S6E+ MSCI Korea IT 10 Galaxy S6/E 220 Galaxy S5 Note 5 14,000 S4 MSCI Japan IT S3 200 5 80 30% MSCI Taiwan IT Galaxy QoQ 180 12,000 0 Note +13.5% 160 Galaxy -5 40 S2 0% 140 10,000 Galaxy S 120 -10 100 8,000 -15 0 -30% 80 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16F 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 Source: IHS, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 3 Monthly InsighT II. Investment strategy Large caps to outperform in light of risks related to F/X movement and year-end inventory clearing II. Investment strategy KDB Daewoo IT universe share performance September: +7.7% for spotlight stocks vs. 5.0% for other notable stocks Monthly InsighT cumulative returns Cumulative returns Avg. of spotlight stocks 7.7 Avg. of spotlight stocks 42.0 OCI Materials 18.2 Avg. of other notable stocks -41.9 KOSPI -3.7 SFA 13.2 KOSDAQ 20.7 (%) LG Innotek 7.4 Nov. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Spotlight Note: September 2014-November 2015 SEMCO 6.1 stocks Nov. SEC -6.4 Avg. of spotlight stocks 7.7 Avg. of other notable stocks 5.0 Avg. of other notable stocks 5.0 KOSPI -1.8 LGD 17.6 KOSDAQ 0.7 (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Samsung SDI 12.7 Oct. LGE 10.4 Avg. of spotlight stocks 5.3 Nov. Avg. of other notable stocks 3.1 SK Hynix 2.9 Other notable KOSPI 3.4 HTW -3.4 stocks KOSDAQ 0.8 (%) SSC -10.3 (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Monthly InsighT 5 II. Investment strategy Large caps to outperform in light of risks related to F/X movement and year-end inventory clearing ■ IT market Share performance & OP consensus revision rates for Korean IT large caps (1M) - Semiconductor: Memory prices slightly stabilized in November, but may fall further with the arrival of the off-season. Process migration of latecomers appears to be (%) Share performance (1M, L) 4Q15 OP consensus revision rate (R) (%) progressing slower than expected. 20 10 - Display: Price weakness continued in November. Expectations are growing for OLED, 12.2 34.8 but such anticipations are already priced in, and short-term earnings will likely remain weak. 10 5 - Mobile/components: Samsung Electronics (SEC) is expected to see relatively stable earnings despite unfavorable seasonality, supported by the release of mid-/low-end models. 0 0 - Demand should remain soft for most IT products, including PCs, TVs, and -98.9 smartphones. -10 -5 ■ Strategy: Focus on large caps 1) IT companies’ 4Q earnings will likely contract QoQ due to year-end destocking. 2) Among small/mid-caps, we believe investors should narrow their focus to companies with strong earnings visibility for 4Q. ■ Preferred stocks Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research - Large cap: SEC, Samsung SDI, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO), LG Innotek - Small/mid caps: Wonik IPS KDB Daewoo IT large-cap universe (W, %, x) Current Upside Share performance P/E P/B ROE Company Rating TP price (11/30) potential 1W 1M 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F SEC BUY 1,700,000 1,284,000 32.4 0.2 -6.4 10.5 10.0 1.2 1.1 12.2 11.7 Samsung SDI BUY 148,000 120,000 23.3 -5.5 12.7 26.3 5.4 0.7 0.6 2.7 12.3 SEMCO BUY 93,000 69,200 34.4 -2.0 6.1 67.4 19.8 1.2 1.1 1.8 6.0 LG Innotek BUY 123,000 99,600 23.5 -1.4 7.4 19.9 12.2 1.3 1.2 6.7 10.2 SK Hynix BUY 45,000 31,600 42.4 3.1 2.9 5.3 6.9 1.0 0.9 21.5 14.1 LG Display BUY 31,000 25,400 22.0 15.7 17.6 8.2 14.7 0.7 0.7 9.2 4.9 LGE BUY 70,000 54,200 29.2 -2.5 10.4 26.4 10.4 0.8 0.8 3.1 7.6 Hanwha Techwin BUY 49,000 36,050 35.9 -0.6 -3.4 50.5 15.7 1.0 0.9 2.1 6.0 Seoul Semiconductor BUY 24,000 17,050 40.8 -9.8 -10.3 46.8 19.6 1.7 1.6 3.8 8.6 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 6 II. Investment strategy Earnings forecast revisions for large caps in the KDB Daewoo IT universe (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F SEC Revenue 53,602 200,937 211,987 53,602 200,937 211,987 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 6,921 27,188 27,785 6,921 27,188 27,785 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 5,355 20,764 21,872 5,355 20,764 21,872 0.0 0.0 0.0 Samsung SDIRevenue 1,999 7,707 8,529 1,999 7,707 8,529 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 1 21 122 1 21 122 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 64 321 1,556 64 321 1,556 0.0 0.0 0.0 SEMCO Revenue 1,525 6,556 6,640 1,525 6,556 6,640 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 79 334 418 79 334 418 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 52 80 271 52 80 271 0.0 0.0 0.0 LG InnotekRevenue 1,716 6,263 6,400 1,716 6,263 6,400 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 63 241 322 63 241 322 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 35 118 194 35 118 194 0.0 0.0 0.0 SK Hynix Revenue 4,561 18,943 18,323 4,561 18,943 18,323 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 1,151 5,498 4,295 1,151 5,498 4,295 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 883 4,335 3,344 883 4,335 3,344 0.0 0.0 0.0 LG Display Revenue 7,357 28,245 28,761 7,357 28,245 28,761 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 212 1,777 1,050 212 1,777 1,050 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 111 1,103 619 111 1,103 619 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGE Revenue 14,951 56,900 57,817 14,951 56,900 57,817 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 286 1,129 1,850 286 1,129 1,850 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 98 371 941 98 371 941 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hanwha Revenue 785 2,643 2,902 785 2,643 2,902 0.0 0.0 0.0 Techwin OP 27 -18 104 27 -18 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 33 38 122 33 38 122 0.0 0.0 0.0 Seoul Revenue 258 1,014 1,161 258 1,014 1,161 0.0 0.0 0.0 Semiconductor OP 18 52 87 18 52 87 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 10 21 51 10 21 51 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 7 II. Investment strategy Consensus vs. KDB Daewoo estimates (Wbn, %) KDB Daewoo Consensus % diff. Notes 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F 4Q15F 2015F 2016F SEC Revenue 53,602 200,937 211,987 53,553 200,815 205,535 0.1 0.1 3.1 OP 6,921 27,188 27,785 6,797 27,038 26,974 1.8 0.6 3.0 NP 5,355 20,764 21,872 5,346 21,205 21,534 0.2 -2.1 1.6 Samsung SDIRevenue 1,999 7,707 8,529 1,888 7,261 7,285 5.9 6.1 17.1 OP 1 21 122 -1 -3 103 - - 18.5 Reflect proceeds from sale of the chemicals unit in NP 64 321 1,556 71 297 500 -9.4 8.0 211.5 2016 SEMCO Revenue 1,525 6,556 6,640 1,542 6,451 6,723 -1.1 1.6 -1.2 OP 79 334 418 77 345 402 3.4 -3.2 4.1 NP 52 80 271 57 104 283 -8.7 -23.8 -4.1 LG Innotek Revenue 1,716 6,263 6,400 1,757 6,311 6,705 -2.3 -0.8 -4.5 OP 63 241 322 74 254 331 -14.6 -4.9 -2.7 Unfavorable F/X NP 35 118 194 43 129 201 -19.3 -8.0 -3.7 SK Hynix Revenue 4,561 18,943 18,323 4,616 18,990 18,586 -1.2 -0.2 -1.4 OP 1,151 5,498 4,295 1,138 5,475 4,329 1.1 0.4 -0.8 NP 883 4,335 3,344 913 4,353 3,428 -3.3 -0.4 -2.5 LG Display Revenue 7,357 28,245 28,761 7,228 28,115 27,129 1.8 0.5 6.0 OP 212 1,777 1,050 195 1,758 994 9.0 1.1 5.6 NP 111 1,103 619 134 1,141 672 -17.1 -3.3 -7.9 LGE Revenue 14,951 56,900 57,817 14,849 56,629 58,688 0.7 0.5 -1.5 OP 286 1,129 1,850 290 1,110 1,423 -1.5 1.7 29.9 NP 98 371 941 124 400 678 -20.4 -7.2 38.7 Hanwha Revenue 785 2,643 2,902 707 2,560 2,708 11.1 3.2 7.2 Techwin OP 27 -18 104 15 -30 63 82.7 - 65.7 NP 33 38 122 23 23 84 43.8 62.9 45.4 Seoul Revenue 258 1,014 1,161 260 1,012 1,094 -0.6 0.2 6.1 Semiconductor OP 18 52 87 15 47 63 17.8 9.5 37.8 Improvement of Handset division NP 10 21 51 9 20 32 10.7 3.7 59.6 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 8 MonthlyMonthly InsighTTECH III.
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