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Korea Daily Focus April 25, 2019 Korea Daily Focus Company News & Analysis S-Oil (010950KS/Buy/TP: W120,000) Focus on the May IMO meeting OCI (010060KS/Buy/TP: W140,000) Heading toward a promising 2H19 LG Chem (051910KS/Buy/TP: W520,000) Without peer in the battery market LG International (001120KS/Buy/TP: W22,000) Profit structure shifting to logistics Hyundai Motor (005380KS/Buy/TP: W166,000) Raise TP Start of a structural transition Hite Jinro (000080KS/Hold) Impact of soju price hikes POSCO INTERNATIONAL (047050KS/Buy/TP: W24,000) Record quarterly operating profit Industrial Bank of Korea (024110KS/Buy/TP: W19,500) Solid earnings and robust loan growth expected for 1Q19 KB Financial Group (105560KS/Buy/TP: W65,000) Solid earnings power confirmed POSCO (005490KS/Buy/TP: W375,000) Better-than-expected results LG Display (034220KS/Buy/TP: W26,500) Too early to throw in the towel This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. S-Oil (010950 KS ) Focus on the May IMO meeting Oil Refining Focus on the May IMO meeting; reiterate as our top pick Results Comment In search of a direction: S-Oil’s shares have remained range-bound at depressed April 25, 2019 levels, due to low refining margins, concerns over lost earnings during maintenance , and weakening expectations related to the International Maritime Organiza tion’s (IMO) regulations. We expect earnings momentum to be weak through 2Q19, as refining margins are still low (despite recovering from the sharp drop in early 2019), and PX spreads will likely soften on the ramp-up of new facilities in China. While higher oil (Maintain) Buy prices are leading to valuation gains on inventory, the official selling price (OSP) is also rising; as such, the impact of IMO regulations on refining margins is a more important Target Price (12M, W) 120,000 variable than ever. Share Price (04/24/19, W) 96,000 Focus on the May IMO meeting: If IMO regulations are implemented as planned , we are confident refining margins will pick up, as most suppliers are still unprepared to Expected Return 25% meet the regulations. We believe the key variable is the enforcement of the IMO regulations, and we recommend focusing on the upcoming IMO meeting scheduled for mid-May. Given the IMO’s overall stance, we believe the new regulations are likely to be OP (19F, Wbn) 1,227 implemented as scheduled, which should result in an increase in kerosene/diesel Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 1,285 margins. EPS Growth (19F, %) 185.0 Reiterate as our top pick: We maintain our Buy call and target price of W120,000 on S- Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -16.2 Oil and reiterate the stock as our top sector pick. Given its pure exposure to oil refining P/E (19F, x) 15.2 and completion of upgrading facilities, S-Oil looks best-positioned to benefit from IMO Market P/E (19F, x) 12.0 regulations. There are short-term risks to earnings, such as lower refining margins, KOSPI 2,201.03 softer PX spreads, and rising OSP. That said, considering S-Oil’s dividend yield under normal earnings conditions, we believe downside is limited. Market Cap (Wbn) 10,808 Shares Outstanding (mn) 117 1Q19 review: Earnings in line with lowered consensus Free Float (%) 36.5 1Q19 OP of W270.4bn: For 1Q19, S-Oil posted operating profit of W270.4bn, in line Foreign Ownership (%) 79.1 with the lowered consensus. Earnings turned around QoQ, as weak refining margins Beta (12M) 0.67 and maintenance effects were outweighed by valuation gains on inventories resulting 52-Week Low 89,600 from higher oil prices. 52-Week High 137,500 Conference call highlights: S-Oil projected that utilization of the newly completed (%) 1M 6M 12M RUC-ODC will be low in 2Q19, affected by routine maintenance of No. 2 RFCC , but will Absolute -0.1 -24.4 -16.5 operate at normal levels in 2H19. S-Oil also said that it expects a recovery in refining Relative -0.7 -28.0 -6.5 margins in 2H19. 120 S-Oil KOSPI 2Q19F OP of W259bn; improvement to come in 2H19 110 Earnings to remain flattish QoQ in 2Q19 and improve in 2H19: We expect S-Oil’s 100 2Q19 operating profit to remain flattish QoQ at W259 bn. While oil refining earnings will 90 80 likely be supported by a refining margin recovery and inventory valuation gains amid 70 the oil price uptrend, chemicals earnings are projected to weaken QoQ, due to softer 60 PX spreads and lower RUC-ODC utilization. We expect earnings to improve in 2H19, 4.18 8.18 12.18 4.19 aided by higher RUC-ODC utilization and better refining margins following implementation of the new IMO regulations. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Chemicals/Oil Refining/EV Batteries ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 16,322 20,891 25,463 23,846 25,227 25,064 Yeon -ju Park +822 -3774 -1755 OP (Wbn) 1,617 1,373 639 1,227 1,970 1,713 [email protected] OP margin (%) 9.9 6.6 2.5 5.1 7.8 6.8 NP (Wbn) 1,205 1,246 258 735 1,374 1,217 EPS (W) 10,337 10,690 2,213 6,308 11,782 10,439 ROE (%) 20.5 18.8 3.9 10.8 18.0 14.4 P/E (x) 8.2 10.9 44.2 15.2 8.1 9.2 P/B (x) 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 Dividend yield (%) 7.3 5.0 0.8 3.2 5.3 4.8 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates OCI (010060 KS ) Heading toward a promising 2H19 Chemicals 2H19 looks promising; Reiterate as our top pick Supply to decline: OCI’s shares have remained range-bound at depressed levels due Results Comment to the sustained weakness in polysilicon prices. Capacity expansions by lower-cost Chinese polysilicon manufacturers added to supply-side burdens in the short term. April 25, 2019 However, we believe pressure on the supply side has peaked, as the new capacities are already online and China’s supply is set to decline from May due to routine maintenance. According to PV InfoLink, China’s Tongwei (600438 CH/CP: RMB14.68) is still restoring facilities damaged by fire, and other producers are scheduled to scale (Maintain) Buy back production in 2Q19, including GCL-Poly (3800 HK/CP: HK$0.57; from mid-May) as well as Combo, DL Silicon, and REC (REC NO/CP: NOK0.705; April-May). Based on PV Target Price (12M, W) 140,000 InfoLink, China’s domestic polysilicon prices have slightly recovered this week. Share Price (04/24/19, W) 92,500 Demand to recover: We expect polysilicon demand to remain weak through 2Q19, as the finalization of the Chinese government’s solar PV policy was delayed. Given that Expected Return 51% some of the details were recently made public, we believe the Chinese government will soon announce the subsidy plan. Meanwhile, Indian demand also looks likely to recover starting in 3Q19. Given the strong demand outlook, we look for a significant OP (19F, Wbn) -1 increase in polysilicon prices in 2H19. Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 114 Maintain TP of W140,000 and reiterate as top pick: We maintain our target price of EPS Growth (19F, %) - W140,000 on OCI and reiterate the stock as our top pick in the solar PV space. Although Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -16.2 earnings weakness is likely to continue through 2Q19, we believe polysilicon prices— P/E (19F, x) - the company’s biggest earnings variable—are passing through the bottom and poised Market P/E (19F, x) 12.0 to improve in 2H19. Global PV stocks are already starting to bounce back from short- term declines, supported by expectations on China’s policy. KOSPI 2,201.03 Market Cap (Wbn) 2,206 1Q19 review: Operating loss due to weak polysilicon prices Shares Outstanding (mn) 24 1Q19 operating loss of W40.6bn: For 1Q19, OCI reported an operating loss of Free Float (%) 77.6 W40.6bn, slightly missing our estimate. In the basic chemicals unit (which includes Foreign Ownership (%) 24.3 polysilicon), losses continued due to weak polysilicon prices. Petrochemical/ carbon Beta (12M) 1.78 chemicals earnings were also disappointing, hurt by lower carbon black prices. 52-Week Low 81,200 Conference call highlights: On its earnings call, OCI said it expected a recovery in 52-Week High 167,000 global solar PV demand in 2H19, driven by China.
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