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January 3, 2013 January 3, 2013 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Samsung Electronics (Buy/TP: W1,900,000) KOSPI 2,019.41 -11.69 -0.58 Expected to lead global IT in 2013 KOSPI 200 267.52 -1.64 -0.61 KOSDAQ 499.07 -2.54 -0.51 CJ CheilJedang (Buy/TP: W440,000) Raise TP Our 2013 top pick for the food and beverage sector Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Partron (Buy/TP: W25,000) Raise TP KOSPI 485,234 5,988 Earnings to remain stellar in 2013F KOSPI 200 147,332 5,035 KOSDAQ 384,013 1,728 KT Skylife (Buy/TP: W36,000) Market Cap (Wbn) 2012 subscribers match forecasts; Growing momentum in 1H13 Value KOSPI 1,166,798 KOSDAQ 109,452 Sector News & Analysis KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Auto (Overweight) Buy Sell Net December auto sales Foreign 1,574 1,474 100 Institutional 1,494 1,543 -49 Economy & Strategy Update Retail 2,881 2,925 -44 Strategy Note KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Tax law revision to have only a limited impact on fund flows Foreign 55 71 -16 Institutional 72 95 -23 Retail 1,594 1,554 39 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,326 975 351 KOSDAQ 12 21 -9 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 443 376 66 KOSDAQ 429 500 65 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,543,000 -33,000 433 Hyundai Motor 206,000 -10,000 361 KODEX LEVERAGE 13,400 -95 247 Kia Motors 54,600 -1,700 241 OCI 179,000 11,500 235 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Agabang 10,150 -450 88 Boryung Medience 14,550 750 36 AHNLAB 45,850 1,350 34 SDN 1,550 200 32 Digital Innovation Display 4,290 90 32 Note: As of January 3, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company January 3, 2013 Semiconductor Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. James Song Expected to lead global IT in 2013 +822-768-3722 [email protected] What’s new: IM and semiconductor divisions to drive 4Q earnings growth We project Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) 4Q revenues and operating profit to reach W58.3tr (+11.8% QoQ; +23.3% YoY) and W9tr (+10.3% QoQ; +69.2% YoY; OP margin of 15.4%), respectively. These estimates are similar to our previous projections (W9.1tr for operating profit), which do not reflect the expected ruling by the US District Court for the Northern District of California. We note that the US Patent and Trademark office (USPTO) recently found that SEC did not infringe on Buy (Maintain) Apple’s patents with regard to functions (e.g., pinch–to-zoom, bounce-back scrolling) Target Price (12M, W) 1,900,000 and designs (e.g., the rounded corners of the device, icon-arrangement design). Share Price (01/02/13, W) 1,576,000 Expected Return (%) 20.6 We forecast 4Q operating profits at the IT & mobile (IM) division, semiconductor EPS Growth (13F, %) 29.8 division, display panel (DP) division, and consumer electronics (CE) division to come Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 21.0 in at W5.9tr, W1.6tr, W1.2tr, and W0.4tr, respectively. We estimate 4Q smartphone P/E (13F, x) 8.8 shipments to have reached 62mn units (including 15mn units of the Galaxy S III and Market P/E (13F, x) 8.8 12mn units of the Galaxy Note II). We estimate tablet PC shipments to have surged KOSPI 2,031.10 Market Cap (Wbn) 232,144 to 7mn units. We raised SEC’s 4Q DRAM bit-growth estimate to 14% to reflect Shares Outstanding (mn) 170 growing mobile DRAM shipments. We also revised up our 4Q NAND bit-growth Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 265 estimate to 24% in light of a surge in triple level cell (TLC) sales. Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 370 Dividend Yield (13F, %) 0.3 Catalyst: Market share to further expand in 2Q13 from new smartphone Free Float (%) 70.8 52-Week Low (W) 1,011,000 For 2013, we project SEC to post revenues of W242.8tr (+19.4% YoY) and an 52-Week High (W) 1,576,000 operating profit of W37.2tr (+25.3% YoY; OP margin of 15.3%). We slightly raised Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1.51 our operating profit estimate (from W36.4tr). While we revised up our 2013 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 1.9 smartphone shipment estimate by 10% from 271mn units to 300mn units, we Foreign Ownership (%) 43.7 made a somewhat conservative projection with regards to the bottom line. Major Shareholder(s) Meanwhile, we expect the semiconductor division to see operating profit surge K.H. Lee et al. (17.65%) from W4.6tr in 2012 to W7.5tr in 2013. Treasury shares (11.55%) NPS (6%) We expect the strongest catalyst for SEC’s 1H13 share price will be the launch of a Price Performance new smartphone model (Galaxy S IV, or the Tizen-powered Galaxy) in 2Q13. We (%) 1M 6M 12M expect the new model to feature: 1) five-inch high-resolution AMOLED (441 pps), 2) Absolute 12.1 34.2 45.9 Relative 7.0 24.6 34.7 an application processor based on the "big.LITTLE" architecture (Exynos 5540 quad), 3) a 13mn-pixel camera, and 4) S-Pen. We project quarterly sales of the new model to reach 30mn units, much higher than that of the Galaxy S III (20mn units). Valuation still attractive SEC’s shares are currently trading at a P/B of only 1.8x (2013F BPS of W898,625) and a P/E of just 8.8x (2013F EPS of W179,819). Despite recent rallies, we still do not find this valuation prohibitive. The company’s 1Q13 earnings might inch down Share price FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 160 KOSPI (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 140 12/10 154,630 17,297 11.2 15,799 92,863 28,015 907 20.4 10.2 1.8 5.3 120 12/11 165,002 16,250 9.9 13,359 78,522 29,047 2,497 14.6 13.5 1.8 5.7 12/12F 203,365 29,659 14.6 23,572 138,551 44,616 9,800 21.7 11.0 2.1 5.2 100 12/13F 242,757 37,151 15.3 30,593 179,819 53,691 21,221 22.8 8.8 1.8 4.2 80 12/14F 277,380 44,439 16.0 36,041 211,837 57,954 46,058 21.6 7.4 1.4 3.1 12/11 4/12 8/12 12/12 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company January 3, 2013 QoQ before the company’s new smartphone launch. However, we advise investors to focus on the company’s earnings (we expect strong growth in 2Q13 and beyond on the back of the launch of the new smartphone) and not on this potential, temporary earnings stagnation. Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenues 45,271 47,597 52,177 58,321 55,335 59,550 63,007 64,865 165,002 203,365 242,757 277,380 % QoQ -4.3 5.1 9.6 11.8 -5.1 7.6 5.8 2.9 % YoY 22.4 20.7 26.4 23.3 22.2 25.1 20.8 11.2 6.7 23.3 19.4 14.3 IM 23,220 24,040 29,920 32,441 31,483 34,492 36,314 37,271 67,440 109,621 139,560 165,960 CE 10,670 12,150 11,600 14,395 12,102 12,631 14,155 15,374 47,020 48,815 54,262 59,452 Semiconductor 7,980 8,600 8,712 10,133 9,992 11,133 11,616 11,565 36,990 35,425 44,307 49,623 - Memory 4,890 5,420 5,220 5,984 5,766 6,577 6,726 6,232 22,710 21,514 25,301 28,982 DRAM 3,858 4,309 4,061 4,071 3,967 4,565 4,394 4,099 16,522 16,299 17,025 15,677 NAND 2,147 2,440 2,403 2,578 2,440 2,743 3,079 2,826 10,270 9,567 11,088 13,305 - Non-memory 3,090 3,180 3,492 4,149 4,226 4,556 4,891 5,332 14,280 13,911 19,005 22,208 DP 8,540 8,250 8,460 8,930 8,948 9,032 9,108 9,085 29,230 34,180 36,174 47,500 Operating profit 5,850 6,724 8,120 8,959 8,235 9,405 10,256 9,254 16,250 29,654 37,151 44,439 % QoQ 10.5 14.9 20.8 10.3 -8.1 14.2 9.1 -9.8 % YoY 98.4 79.2 90.9 69.2 40.8 39.9 26.3 3.3 -6.1 82.5 25.3 19.6
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