Twiplomacy in the Age of Donald Trump: Is the Diplomatic Code Changing?

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Twiplomacy in the Age of Donald Trump: Is the Diplomatic Code Changing? View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Middlesex University Research Repository Twiplomacy in the age of Donald Trump: Is the diplomatic code changing? Maja Šimunjak and Alessandro Caliandro Department of Media, Middlesex University London, London, United Kingdom CONTACT INFORMATION Maja Šimunjak, Department of Media, Middlesex University London, The Burroughs, Hendon, London NW4 4BT, United Kingdom, EMAIL: [email protected] ABTRACT This study employs digital methods in conjunction with traditional content and discourse analyses to explore how the US President Donald Trump conducts diplomacy on Twitter and how, if at all, diplomatic entities around the world engage in diplomatic exchanges with him. The results confirm speculations that Trump’s diplomatic communication on Twitter disrupts traditional codes of diplomatic language but show little evidence that new codes of diplomatic interactions on social media are being constructed, given that other diplomatic entities around the world mostly remain within the confines of traditional notions of diplomacy in (not) communicating with Trump on Twitter. Keywords: Twitter; social media; diplomacy; digital methods; United States; Donald Trump. 1 The US President Donald Trump’s naming and shaming of several world leaders and countries on Twitter as soon as he took office in January 2017 received considerable media attention (Apps 2016; Crowley, McCaskill, and Nelson 2017; Dejevsky 2017; Huang 2017; Tremonti 2016), with a wide range of commentators expressing concern over newly elected president’s diplomatic practices on social media. Commenting on Trump’s “Twitter diplomacy,” Dejevsky (2017, n.p.) claims that Trump “has earned almost universal disapproval from the political and especially the diplomatic establishments, which regard such heedless commentary as, first, ill-advised in the extreme and, second, plain crass.” Indeed, his diplomatic practices on Twitter have been criticised by political actors at home (Crowley, McCaskill, and Nelson 2017) and abroad (Huang 2017). Most notably, China reacted to Trump’s negative comments on Twitter in an article published by the Chinese state news agency Xinhua titled “Addiction to Twitter diplomacy is unwise,” in which it emphasised that tweeting is not a suitable way for conducting diplomacy (Huang 2017). According to Tremonti (2016), with Trump’s Twitter practices, diplomacy is “entering an unprecedented, unpredictable, and extremely high-stakes era” (n.p.; see also Apps 2016). While these are valuable observations, Trump’s diplomatic practices on social media have not been systematically studied; hence many assessments are based on anecdotal evidence. Consequently, to what extent is Trump using social media for diplomatic purposes, how is he conducting diplomacy on social media, and who, if at all, is engaging him on social media, remains largely speculative. We empirically address these questions in this article and also the more fundamental question whether or not Twitter practices are catalysing the development of a new code for diplomatic communication on social media. The article proceeds as follows. We first discuss existing literature on diplomacy as communication and studies focusing specifically on social media and Trump’s Twitter use. 2 We thereafter describe our methodology, which combines Digital Methods (DM) approach with traditional techniques of analysis, such as content analysis and discourse analysis. Lastly, we present our findings, analysis, and conclusions. Diplomacy as communication Broadly, diplomacy can be conceptualised as an instrument of policy or a means of communication (Sharp 2001). We look at diplomacy as a means of communication. From this perspective, language is considered to be the dominant medium of diplomacy (Rana 2001), and diplomats’ words are often seen as their actions (Pascual 2001). Also, following Wong (2016) and Poguntke and Webb (2005), we consider “diplomats” as not only those who have been formally delegated the duties of diplomacy (e.g. foreign ministers, ambassadors), but also political leaders who are increasingly important as representatives and negotiators in the international arena. While a comprehensive overview of main characteristics of diplomatic language is lacking in the literature, scholars have emphasized following characteristics of diplomatic language: 1. Diplomatic language should be courteous, marked by respect for and consideration of others (Jönsson and Hall 2005). In effect, there is no space for insults, uncivil wording, naming, and shaming. 2. Diplomatic language should be constructive and positive. Diplomats in their communication should be careful not to appear superior, indifferent, 3 controlling or offensive towards other actors in international relations (Jönsson and Hall 2005; Park and Lim 2014; Strauss, Kruikemeier, Meulen, and Noort 2015). 3. Diplomatic communication should be balanced and moderate. It should not be dramatic, especially in high stake situations (Nick 2001). 4. Diplomatic language should be ambiguous. It is often indirect and uses hedges, which makes it appear vague and open to interpretations. Such ambiguity serves several purposes in diplomacy, e.g. retaining flexibility in negotiations, making claims deniable, and being able to speak to multiple audiences (Jönsson and Hall 2005). These characteristics are considered part of the diplomatic code, which guides interactions between diplomats. Given the importance and delicateness of interactions between diplomats, great deal of thought goes into crafting diplomatic language. According to Pascual (2001), diplomatic communications need to be “deliberate, masterful, carefully and prudently drawn up” (230-31). While the ways in which diplomats communicate and engage in dialogue with other actors is considered crucial in diplomacy, scholars and practitioners alike emphasize that what is said in diplomatic communication is as important as what is left unsaid (Jönsson and Hall 2005; Pascual 2001). In other words, omission of information in a diplomatic dialogue is an action in itself, which sends messages to other actors in the same way as information that has been communicated. The same can be said for a lack of response and engagement in a 4 dialogue. In other words, if one party in a diplomatic relation does not engage in a dialogue initiated by another party, this lack of response is interpreted as deliberate and strategic, and an action in itself. Hence, in diplomatic communication, both behaviour and non-behaviour are seen to constitute messages. Social media diplomacy Writing at the beginning of the 2010s, Stein (2011, 114) declared: “all governments are facing an urgent need, partly driven by the emergence of new technologies and social media, to update their diplomatic instruments.” Several years later, Twitter positioned itself as the “ultimate channel for digital diplomacy for world leaders and governments.” Reportedly almost 180 world leaders and governments are using it for communicating with their peers and publics (Lüfkens 2017). Existing research on the use of social media in diplomacy has mostly focused on how social media is used for public diplomacy (i.e., relationships between nation-states and foreign publics), and on the practices of diplomatic institutions such as ministries for foreign affairs and embassies (Bjola and Holmes 2015; Cassidy and Manor 2016; Cull 2011; Zhong and Lu 2013; Strauss et al. 2015). Here social media is often seen as allowing for the development of a more open and collaborative model of diplomacy. Correspondingly, it is often said that social media requires diplomats to engage in a more personalised and interactive way with their audiences. However, there is debate on both the extent of influence of social media on diplomatic communication and the extent of influence that the social media is having on developments in diplomatic practice (Bjola and Holmes 2015; Hocking and Mellisen 2015; Zhong and Lu 2013). In fact, there is research showing that diplomatic entities on social media rarely meet expectations of social media diplomacy, i.e., 5 they tend not to focus on interaction, networking, and openness (Cassidy and Manor 2016; Strauss et al. 2015). Overall, existing research in social media diplomacy has two important limitations. First, it overly focuses on public diplomacy, almost completely ignoring government-to- government social media diplomacy (G-2-G). A rare exception is Cassidy and Manor (2016), which debunks social media diplomacy myths, but even here, G-2-G is barely discussed. Second, while questions concerning agenda setting, reach, and engagement have been generally explored, the issue of style as a possible source of influence on diplomatic communication has been neglected. Consequently, existing studies provide a glimpse into the effective strategies that diplomatic institutions can use in conducting public diplomacy over social media, but there is hardly anything known about how world leaders use social media to engage with their diplomatic counterparts. According to Lüfkens (2017), world leaders extensively use social media for various purposes, including fostering relationships with other world leaders and foreign publics. According to many indicators, the most popular social network world leaders use is Twitter. Data from 2018 shows that the US President Donald Trump is the most- followed world leader on Twitter, with Pope Francis close behind. Trump is also considered to be
Recommended publications
  • Trump's Twiplomacy
    Trump’s Twiplomacy: A New Diplomatic Norm? Kajsa Hughes Two-year Political Science MA programme in Global Politics and Societal Change Dept. of Global Political Studies Course: Political Science Master’s thesis ST631L (30 credits) Thesis submitted: Summer, 2020 Supervisor: Corina Filipescu Kajsa Hughes 19940526-2867 Political Science: Global Politics Abstract This study examined how Trump frames various countries and their leaders and whether the framing changes from different factors. It also observed whether foreign leaders were following the same path as Trump in their diplomatic communication and interaction on Twitter. This was to contribute more knowledge that connects global politics with social media to see if changes of frames through Twitter caused any global politica l consequences. Theories including realist constructivism and framing theory, along with concepts of social norms, political context, events, and enemy images, were applied to the study. Using directed content analysis, together with longitudinal and comparative elements, the findings showed a separation between Trump’s and the other leaders’ tweets. Almost all tweets were connected to the concepts, and various techniques of framing were identified in tweets from most leaders. However, Trump’s informa l, disdain, and dramatics in his tweets have distanced himself from the rest of the leaders’ posts. Although a couple of leaders’ attempt to be hostile towards Trump and the U.S. in their tweets, they were still formal. It shows that not only is Trump’s Twiplomacy a reflection of American superpower forcefulne ss, but also a unique form that the rest choose to ignore. Keywords: framing, social norms, Trump, Twiplomacy, Twitter, Word count: 21,979 1 Kajsa Hughes 19940526-2867 Political Science: Global Politics Table of Contents 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Final Thesis Sandra
    A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DIGITAL DIPLOMACY BY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND ITS INFLUENCE ON EFFECTIVE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY BY SANDRA KISAKYE NANTONGO UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY- AFRICA SUMMER 2019 A Thesis SuBmitted to the School of Humanities and Social Sciences in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements of the award for f Master of Arts Degree in International Relations STUDENT’S DECLARATION I, undersigned, declare that this is my original work and has not been submitted to any other college or university other than the United States International University – Africa in Nairobi for academic credit. Signed: ………………………………………. Date: ………………………………… Sandra Kisakye Nantongo (ID 655018) This thesis has been submitted for examination with my approval as the appointed supervisor. Signed…………………………………… Date………………………………. Mr. Dan N Odaba Supervisor, USIU-Africa Signed…………………………………….... Date…………………………………… Professor Martin C. Njoroge Dean, School of Humanities and Social Sciences (SHSS) Signed……………………………………. Date……………………………………... Ambassador Ruthie Rono, PhD Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Academic and Students Affairs (DVCASA) iii All rights reserved. No part of this dissertation report may be photocopied, recorded or otherwise reproduced, stored in retrieval system or transmitted in any electronic or mechanical means without prior permission of USIU-A or the author. Sandra Kisakye Nantongo© 2019. iv ABSTRACT The world is continually hearing about the unrelenting expansion of the use of digital technologies like social media around the globe. The relevance of social media channels to diplomacy goes far beyond usage numbers. The universal use of social media has important strategic implications for the diplomatic community because it has fundamentally changed the ways that governments engage with their citizens and position themselves on the global stage.
    [Show full text]
  • Twiplomacy & Trump Author's Copy.Pdf
    Middlesex University Research Repository An open access repository of Middlesex University research http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk Šimunjak, Maja ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8263-272X and Caliandro, Alessandro (2019) Twiplomacy in the age of Donald Trump: Is the diplomatic code changing? The Information Society: An International Journal, 35 (1) . pp. 13-25. ISSN 0197-2243 [Article] (doi:10.1080/01972243.2018.1542646) Final accepted version (with author’s formatting) This version is available at: https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/26014/ Copyright: Middlesex University Research Repository makes the University’s research available electronically. Copyright and moral rights to this work are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners unless otherwise stated. The work is supplied on the understanding that any use for commercial gain is strictly forbidden. A copy may be downloaded for personal, non-commercial, research or study without prior permission and without charge. Works, including theses and research projects, may not be reproduced in any format or medium, or extensive quotations taken from them, or their content changed in any way, without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). They may not be sold or exploited commercially in any format or medium without the prior written permission of the copyright holder(s). Full bibliographic details must be given when referring to, or quoting from full items including the author’s name, the title of the work, publication details where relevant (place, publisher, date), pag- ination, and for theses or dissertations the awarding institution, the degree type awarded, and the date of the award.
    [Show full text]
  • `Social Media' the Indian Success Story / Twitter Diplomacy” Vineeta
    `Social Media’ The Indian Success Story / Twitter Diplomacy” Vineeta Pandey Senior Editor, The Pioneer The world has discovered fast and furious ways of communicating and social media is prime among them. The Indian government has not only quickly adapted to the new technological revolution in connecting with people but also taken lead which is why five of its Twitter handles figure among the top ten most followed in the world. These are of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (@NarendraModi), his office (@PMOIndia), External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (@sushmaswaraj), Ministry of Eternal Affairs (@MEAIndia) and President of India (@Rashtrapatibvn). PM Modi has the third largest following on Twitter in the world and he is the highest following on Instagram. Swaraj is the most followed Foreign Minister in the world. MEA is among the top most followed government offices in the world. Be it connecting with its citizens in a distress situation, facilitating documentations, visas, helping foreign nationals, or a means to connect with foreign leaders – Indian government has made most use from #Hashtag Diplomacy. In fact, in order to bridge the gap between government and people, Indian leaders and diplomats have perfected the art of speaking in 140 characters (on Twitter). India is one of the few countries that has all its missions and top diplomats highly active on Twitter, disseminating diplomatic news, information giving details of its initiatives and efforts apart from providing support to the Indians abroad. In India the revolutionary shift by the government and diplomacy to the social media platform took place in May 2014, when the NDA government under PM Modi took charge.
    [Show full text]
  • Don't Delete That Tweet: Federal and Presidential Records in the Age of Social Media Gabriel M
    St. Mary's Law Journal Volume 50 | Number 1 Article 7 4-18-2019 Don't Delete That Tweet: Federal and Presidential Records in the Age of Social Media Gabriel M. A. Elorreaga St. Mary's University School of Law Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.stmarytx.edu/thestmaryslawjournal Part of the American Politics Commons, Law and Politics Commons, Law and Society Commons, Legal Ethics and Professional Responsibility Commons, Legal Remedies Commons, Other Political Science Commons, Political History Commons, and the President/Executive Department Commons Recommended Citation Gabriel M. Elorreaga, Don't Delete That Tweet: Federal and Presidential Records in the Age of Social Media, 50 St. Mary's L.J. 483 (2019). Available at: https://commons.stmarytx.edu/thestmaryslawjournal/vol50/iss1/7 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the St. Mary's Law Journals at Digital Commons at St. Mary's University. It has been accepted for inclusion in St. Mary's Law Journal by an authorized editor of Digital Commons at St. Mary's University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Elorreaga: Federal and Presidential Records in the Age of Social Media COMMENT DON’T DELETE THAT TWEET: FEDERAL AND PRESIDENTIAL RECORDS IN THE AGE OF SOCIAL MEDIA GABRIEL M. A. ELORREAGA* I. Introduction ........................................................................................... 484 II. The Historical Background of Statutes That Govern Records Preservation ........................................................................................... 485 A. The Federal Records Act (FRA) .................................................. 485 B. The Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) ................................ 486 C. The Presidential Records Act (PRA) .......................................... 488 III. Application of Records Preservation to Evolving Technologies .. 489 A.
    [Show full text]
  • Twitter Diplomacy: How Trump Is Using Social Media to Spur a Crisis with Mexico
    University of Wollongong Research Online Faculty of Law, Humanities and the Arts - Papers Faculty of Arts, Social Sciences & Humanities 1-1-2017 Twitter diplomacy: how Trump is using social media to spur a crisis with Mexico Luis Gomez Romero University of Wollongong, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://ro.uow.edu.au/lhapapers Part of the Arts and Humanities Commons, and the Law Commons Recommended Citation Gomez Romero, Luis, "Twitter diplomacy: how Trump is using social media to spur a crisis with Mexico" (2017). Faculty of Law, Humanities and the Arts - Papers. 2886. https://ro.uow.edu.au/lhapapers/2886 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] Twitter diplomacy: how Trump is using social media to spur a crisis with Mexico Abstract Six days after taking office, esidentPr Donald Trump is facing the first international crisis of his administration. And it's unfolding on Twitter. Disciplines Arts and Humanities | Law Publication Details L. Gomez Romero, 'Twitter diplomacy: how Trump is using social media to spur a crisis with Mexico' (2017) 28 January The Conversation 1-7. This journal article is available at Research Online: https://ro.uow.edu.au/lhapapers/2886 Twitter diplomacy: how Trump is using social media to spur a crisis wi... https://theconversation.com/twitter-diplomacy-how-trump-is-using-soc... Academic rigour, journalistic flair January 28, 2017 7.11am AEDT Foreign policy, now online. Lucas Jackson/Reuters Six days after taking office, President Donald Trump is facing the first international Author crisis of his administration.
    [Show full text]
  • Escalation by Tweet: Managing the New Nuclear Diplomacy 2020
    CENTRE FOR SCIENCE & SECURITY STUDIES Escalation by Tweet: Managing the new nuclear diplomacy Heather Williams and Alexi Drew JULY 2020 Table of contents Foreword by Lawrence Freedman ................................................................................................... 4 Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 5 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 6 Asymmetric tweeting ...................................................................................................................... 8 Ladders, escalators and webs ................................................................................................................................. 10 What is new about Twitter? ...................................................................................................................................... 10 The perfect tweet storm: escalation pathways ............................................................................ 14 Inadvertent escalation .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Deliberate escalation and disinformation ................................................................................................................. 16 Catalytic escalation .................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Exploring Public Diplomacy 2.0 a Comparison of German and U.S. Digital Public Diplomacy in Theory and Practice
    Exploring Public Diplomacy 2.0 A Comparison of German and U.S. Digital Public Diplomacy in Theory and Practice Dissertation To obtain the academic degree „Doktorin der Philosophie” (Dr. phil.) Faculty for Cultural Studies, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) Submitted in 2013 by Maïté Kersaint, defended in June 2014 Dissertation Advisors Prof. Dr. Jürgen Neyer, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) Prof. Dr. Carola Richter, Free University Berlin II The art of diplomacy is to get other people to want what you want. Madeleine Albright1 1 Steven Lee Myers, “Hillary Clinton’s Last Tour as a Rock-Star Diplomat,” The New York Times, June 27, 2012, sec. Magazine, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/magazine/hillary-clintons-last-tour-as-a-rock-star-diplomat.html. III CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT..............................................................................................VII ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................VIII TABLE OF FIGURES .....................................................................................................X 1 INTRODUCING PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ...................................................................... 1 1.1 Context: Real-Time Reaction and Blurred Power Relations................................................................1 1.2 Significance of the Study and Research Focus ..........................................................................................8 1.3 Research Questions, Methodology and
    [Show full text]
  • 49-69 Digital Diplomacy Via Social Networks
    Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia Vol. 18, No. 1: 49-69 DOI: 10.17477/jcea.2019.18.1.049 Digital Diplomacy via Social Networks: A Cross-National Analysis of Governmental Usage of Facebook and Twitter for Digital Engagement Muhammad Ittefaq 1 Over the last couple of years, digital diplomacy has become a fascinating area of research among Mass Communication, Peace and Conflict Studies, and International Affairs scholars. Social media and new technology open up new avenues for governments, individuals, and organizations to engage with foreign audiences. However, developing countries’ governments are still lacking in the realization of the potential of social media. This study aims to analyze the usage of social media (Facebook & Twitter) by the two biggest countries in South Asia (Pakistan and India). I selected 10 government officials’ social media accounts including prime ministers', national press offices’, military public relations offices’, public diplomacy divisions’, and ministries of foreign offices’ profiles. The study relies on quantitative content analysis and a comparative research approach. The total number of analyzed Twitter tweets (n=1,015) and Facebook posts (n=1,005) include 10 accounts, five from each country. In light of Kent and Taylor’s (1998) dialogic communication framework, the results indicate that no digital engagement and dialogue occurs between government departments and the public through social networking sites. Government departments do not engage with local or foreign audiences through digital media. When comparing both countries, results reveal that India has more institutionalized and organized digital diplomacy. In terms of departmental use of social media, the digital diplomacy division and foreign office of India is more active than other government departments in that nation.
    [Show full text]
  • Digital Diplomacy As an Instrument of American Foreign Policy: a Conceptual Approach
    Turkish Journal of Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation; 32(3) ISSN 2651-4451 | e-ISSN 2651-446X DIGITAL DIPLOMACY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY: A CONCEPTUAL APPROACH Khalid Opaid Jazea1, Hussein Mezher Khalaf2 1Researcher, 2Supervisor MA Student, University of Baghdad [email protected] ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to define digital diplomacy as one of the new instruments of American foreign policy by identifying the most prominent definitions that have been given in connection with the definition of digital diplomacy, through the general characteristics that have met with agreement among those involved in this concept, and to deal with digital diplomacy and the history of its use in American foreign policy to the extent that it is considered a new soft power. The study concluded that the concept of digital diplomacy as any new concept in the humanities had not been agreed upon and guided by the contributions made by the researcher's introduction of a definition of its own, and that the United States of America, in the wake of the establishment of the new world order, had employed that instrument in its foreign policy, as well as being new soft power in the American interest. I. INTRODUCTION: First of all, it can be said that if the emergence of the Internet was primarily a reason for that change that affected all power structures, pushing them towards disintegration to the extent that some people during the nineties of the twentieth century spread the word: “Power Shift,” meaning shifting power, then this was not far from the pattern of changes that followed the international system and its political units, especially after the dissolution of the Soviet Union (Khalifa, 2016, p.
    [Show full text]
  • “Twitter Diplomacy” Engagement Through Social Media in 21St Century Statecraft by Owen Henry International Relations Honors
    “Twitter Diplomacy” Engagement Through Social Media in 21st Century Statecraft By Owen Henry International Relations Honors Thesis Oberlin College Politics Department Eve Sandberg, Advisor Michael Parkin, Second Reader May 1st, 2012 Owen Henry “Twitter Diplomacy”: The Usage of Social Media in 21st Century Statecraft 1 Acknowledgements First, thank you to my first reader, Professor Eve Sandberg, for her invaluable assistance and counsel throughout this process. Her instruction, life experience, and advice have been invaluable during my career at Oberlin and I have no doubt will continue to be so in the future. Thank you Professor Michael Parkin for your assistance as my second reader. This project would have looked a lot worse without your help. Thank you Professors Maren Milligan and Ben Schiff for cultivating in me the ability to write a paper of this magnitude. Thank you Mom for your encouragement, support, and interest, despite your own scholastic trials and travails. And to my fellow IR Honors students Katherine Sicienski, Kelsey Atkinson, and Sonia Roubini: your moral support, encouragement, and feedback were an essential part of this process. Thank you all for having undertaken this trial with me - I could not have asked for better peers. Owen Henry “Twitter Diplomacy”: The Usage of Social Media in 21st Century Statecraft 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction … 4 2. Literature Review … 9 2.1. The Methods and Theories of Diplomacy … 9 2.2. Technological Mediums of Diplomacy … 13 2.3. Real World Impacts … 18 3. Case Study Methodology … 20 3.1. What constitutes effective usage, and where do we study it? … 20 3.2.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Electoral Uncertainty and Currency Market Spillovers
    Foreign Electoral Uncertainty and Currency Market Spillovers Alexander “Xander” Slaski* Tulane University November 15, 2019 Abstract This paper examines the eects of foreign elections on domestic currency politics. I develop a theory of signaling and uncertainty to explain why elections in countries with close economic ties should aect exchange rates. Methodologically, this paper utilizes an event analysis framework to measure the impact of the 2016 US election on the Mexican peso by exploiting the plausible exogeneity of Donald Trump’s tweets. I also measure changes in the peso using Trump’s predicted chance of winning the election and show that the peso is weakest when Trump has the highest chance of winning the election. The results indicate that each tweet causes a substantial decline in the value of the peso relative to the dollar during Trump’s campaign; the election itself has an even larger impact on the peso. I include a series of robustness checks and analyses of other notable recent cases of how electoral uncertainty aected currency values in other countries, including the 2018 Brazilian election. I conclude by outlining potential future research and possible extensions of the findings. The results quantify the eect of foreign elections on exchange rates, building on the existing literature that focuses on how domestic elections shape currency markets. Keywords: currency, international monetary politics, election, Mexico, campaign, foreign exchange Word count (excluding appendix): 11,513. *Tulane University Post-Doctoral Fellow, 7025 Freret Street, New Orleans, LA 70118, [email protected], ORCID: 0000-0001- 9335-055X. I thank Allyson Benton, Faisal Ahmed, Eric Arias, Deborah Yashar, Helen Milner, Nicole Weygandt, Thomas Oatley and Raphael Cunha as well as members of the 2018 REPAL conference and members of the Brigham Young University political science seminar for their comments and suggestions.
    [Show full text]