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Employment Land Forecasting Study Employment Land Forecasting Study Nottingham Core HMA and Nottingham Outer HMA Final Report August 2015 Nottingham Core HMA and Nottingham Outer HMA Employment Land Forecasting Study Final Report 14 August 2015 50406/02/MW/CRo Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 3rd Floor One St James's Square Manchester M2 6DN nlpplanning.com This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2015. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A Nottingham Core HMA and Nottingham Outer HMA : Employment Land Forecasting Study Contents 1.0 Introduction 1 Scope of Study................................................................................................. 1 Structure of Report ........................................................................................... 2 2.0 Economic Context 4 Spatial Overview .............................................................................................. 4 Core HMA ........................................................................................................ 7 Outer HMA ..................................................................................................... 17 Functional Economic Market Areas ................................................................ 27 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 34 3.0 Overview of Employment Space 36 Core HMA ...................................................................................................... 36 Outer HMA ..................................................................................................... 46 Provision in Adjoining Areas........................................................................... 61 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 67 4.0 Commercial Property Market 68 Overview ........................................................................................................ 68 Market Segments ........................................................................................... 69 Future Growth Potential ................................................................................. 76 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 80 5.0 Future B Class Employment Space Requirements 82 Methodology .................................................................................................. 82 Forecasts of Job Growth ................................................................................ 83 Labour Supply ................................................................................................ 99 Estimating the Land Requirement ................................................................ 102 Converting Net to Gross Requirements ........................................................ 103 Past Rates of Delivery .................................................................................. 109 Safety Margin / Flexibility Factor .................................................................. 112 Summary ..................................................................................................... 113 Sensitivity Testing ........................................................................................ 119 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 123 6.0 Implications and Conclusions 125 Economic Characteristics ............................................................................. 125 Property Market Characteristics ................................................................... 126 Future Employment Land Needs .................................................................. 127 9562200v2 Nottingham Core HMA and Nottingham Outer HMA : Employment Land Forecasting Study 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) was commissioned to prepare up to date evidence on economic prospects and employment land forecasts for the Nottingham Core Housing Market Area (HMA) and the Nottingham Outer HMA. 1.2 The commissioning authorities are set out in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 Commissioning Local Authorities by HMA Nottingham Core HMA Nottingham Outer HMA Broxtowe Borough Council Ashfield District Council Erewash Borough Council Mansfield District Council Gedling Borough Council Newark and Sherwood District Council Nottingham City Council Rushcliffe Borough Council 1.3 The study will form part of the evidence base for the emerging development plan documents of the eight commissioning authorities, helping to identify future employment land needs and guiding economic development over the period to 2033. On this basis, the study considers future quantitative land and floorspace requirements and any related qualitative factors for individual sectors or employment uses. 1.4 Specific requirements of the brief include: 1 Provision of forecasts of quantitative and qualitative needs by economic sector, estimating the scale of future floorspace needs for each HMA and local authority; 2 Identification of Functional Economic Market Areas (FEMA), including advice on whether the Hucknall area in Ashfield District forms part of the Core or Outer FEMA; 3 Make recommendations on qualitative needs by sector or employment use taking into account the proposed location of a HS2 hub station to serve the East Midlands at Toton; and 4 Undertake an assessment of the balance between proposed housing provision and job forecasts for each HMA and local authority. Scope of Study 1.5 The focus of this report is on the employment space needs of the group of ‘B- class’ sectors outlined below: • B1a/b Business (offices, research and development); • B1c/B2 Industrial (light/general industrial); and • B8 Storage or Distribution (warehouses, distribution centres). 9562200v2 P1 Nottingham Core HMA and Nottingham Outer HMA : Employment Land Forecasting Study 1.6 Demand for B-class employment land and floorspace represents the particular focus of this study, and references to ‘employment space’ are intended to mean all three of these elements (B1/B2/B8). 1.7 The study also considers forecasts for growth in non B-class sectors to provide an indication of how the overall economy of the study area could change in the future. However, it does not specifically assess the space implications of these sectors because they are often planned for using different methodologies and are considered by other forms of technical evidence (e.g. retail assessment). 1.8 It should be noted that there are a variety of factors and drivers to consider when objectively assessing business needs for a local area. This study utilises a combination of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to explore these issues within the context of the Nottingham Core and Outer HMAs and synthesises these to draw overall conclusions for each HMA. 1.9 An important consideration for any work of this type is that it is inevitably a point-in-time assessment. This study has incorporated the latest data and other evidence available at the point of preparation where available on a consistent basis across the individual local authorities. The accuracy and sources of data derived from third party sources have not been checked or verified by NLP. 1.10 As part of the study, consultation was undertaken with a range of stakeholders including commercial property agents and a representative from the D2N2 LEP. Whilst a Business Survey was undertaken as part of this study, a poor response rate meant that the findings were not robust enough to be used in isolation but were instead used to provide further contextual analysis. A stakeholder workshop was held in Mansfield in January 2015 with officers from all of the commissioning authorities and other stakeholders and comprised a presentation of interim findings and structured group discussion. The findings of this workshop, as well as the outcomes of separate stakeholder discussions, have been referenced throughout this report. Structure of Report 1.11 The report is structured as follows: • Economic Context (Section 2.0) – a review of current economic conditions and trends within the two HMAs, identifying the strengths and weaknesses that may affect future needs for employment space; • Overview of Employment Space (Section 3.0) – analysis of the current stock and trends of employment space within the two HMAs in terms of mix of uses, development rates, gains and losses and provision in adjoining areas; • Commercial Property Market (Section 4.0) – a review of the sub- regional commercial property market, including the supply and demand for different types of employment space and the needs of different market segments; P2 9562200v2 Nottingham Core HMA and Nottingham Outer HMA : Employment Land Forecasting Study • Future Requirements for B Class Employment Space (Section 5.0) – estimates future employment space requirements for B-class sectors in quantitative terms, drawing on employment forecasts and other factors; • Implications and Conclusions (Section 6.0) – outlines the key implications in relation to planning for employment land needs across the Core and Outer HMAs 1.12 Supporting data and
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