| ii PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 Highlights

©© 1% to £4.4bn Total physical and digital book sales and income from journals

©© 3% to £1.3bn Total digital books and electronic journal subscriptions

£3,314m Total physical and digital books sales

©© 5% to £1,134m Total income from learned journals

£2,760m Total physical book sales

ªª 2% to £554m Total digital book sales

17% Digital share of physical and digital book sales

©© 3% to £1,893m Home physical and digital book sales

ªª 3% to £1,421m Total exports of physical and digital books

©© 7% to £173m Gross receipts from rights and coeditions

©© to 97% Share of output on paper from known sources

PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 iii |  Acknowledgements

The Publishers Association would like to thank Nielsen Book Research, which has been responsible for the compilation and analysis of sales data on books and digital products, and Roger Watson, for the data on publishers’ income from rights and coeditions in this yearbook. Many thanks too for the individual contributions of those who have written the annual and sector reviews and the exchange rate appendix, to Nielsen BookScan for providing assistance and data to help in the yearbook’s compilation, and the participants of the various PA statistics schemes.

Finally, thanks for all the help with this project to The PA’s Yearbook Production Committee, chaired by Mark Gardiner (Penguin Random House), and to Nicholas Clee, the publication’s consultant editor.

Published by:

The Publishers Association 29B Montague Street London WC1B 5BW t +44 (0) 20 7691 9191 f +44 (0) 20 7691 9199 e [email protected] w www.publishers.org.uk

© The Publishers Association 2016

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner.

ISBN: 978-0-85386-381-6

Book and digital data collected, analysed and compiled by:

e [email protected] w www.nielsenbook.co.uk

Rights and coeditions data collected analysed and compiled by:

Roger Watson e [email protected] w www.primaryprogresstoolkit.co.uk

Consultant Editor: Nicholas Clee

Designer: Lindsay Baugh, Howardsgate, based on an original design by Amanda Hawkes Printed and bound in the UK by Lightning Source UK, Milton Keynes.

iv PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Acknowledgements Contents

Acknowledgements iv

Preface xi Stephen Lotinga, chief executive, The Publishers Association

1 Total book sales 1 Annual review by Joanna Prior, managing director of Penguin General Books (part of Penguin Random House UK) and president of The Publishers Association, 2015 –16 1.1 Publisher sales of books: physical and digital 3 1.2 Publisher sales of physical books 6 1.3 Average invoiced price of physical books 9 1.4 Publisher returns of physical books 10 1.5 Publisher sales of digital books 11

2 Home (UK) book sales 13 Sector review by Anna Bond, UK sales director, Pan Macmillan 2.1 Publisher home sales of books: physical and digital 15 2.2 Publisher home sales of physical books, by category 17 2.3 Average invoiced price of physical book home sales, by category 18 2.4 UK physical book market size 19 2.5 Publisher home sales of digital books 20

3 Export book sales 21 Sector review by Ben Wright, group international sales director, Hachette UK 3.1 Publisher export sales of books: physical and digital 23 3.2 Publisher export sales of physical books, by category 25 3.3 Average invoiced price of physical book exports, by category 26 3.4 Export sales of physical books, by region 27 3.5 Publisher export sales of digital books 28

4 Fiction book sales 29 Sector review by Kate Elton, executive publisher, HarperFiction and NonFiction, HarperCollins 4.1 Publisher sales of fiction books: physical and digital 31 4.2 Publisher sales of physical fiction books 33 4.3 Average invoiced price of physical fiction books 35 4.4 Export sales of physical fiction books, by region 36

5 Non‑fiction and reference book sales 37 Sector review by Daniel Crewe, publisher, Viking 5.1 Publisher sales of non‑fiction/reference books: physical and digital 39 5.2 Publisher sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books 41 5.3 Average invoiced price of physical non‑fiction/reference books 43 5.4 Export sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books, by region 44

Contents | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 v 6 Children’s book sales 45 Sector review by Emma Hopkin, managing director, Bloomsbury Children’s 6.1 Publisher sales of children’s books: physical and digital 47 6.2 Publisher sales of physical children’s books 49 6.3 Average invoiced price of physical children’s books 51 6.4 Export sales of physical children’s books, by region 52

7 School book sales 53 Sector review by Colin Hughes, managing director, Collins Learning and chair of The PA’s Educational Publishers Council 7.1 Publisher sales of school books: physical and digital 55 7.2 Publisher sales of physical school books 57 7.3 Average invoiced price of physical school books 59 7.4 Export sales of physical school books, by region 60

8 ELT book sales 61 Sector review by Stephanie Richards, ELT educational services director, Oxford University Press 8.1 Publisher sales of ELT books: physical and digital 63 8.2 Publisher sales of physical ELT books 65 8.3 Average invoiced price of physical ELT books 67 8.4 Export sales of physical ELT books, by region 68

9 Academic and professional book sales 69 Sector review by Mandy Hill, managing director, academic publishing, Cambridge University Press 9.1 Publisher sales of academic/professional books: physical and digital 71 9.2 Publisher sales of physical academic/professional books 75 9.3 Average invoiced price of physical academic/professional books 78 9.4 Export sales of physical academic/professional books, by region 79

10 Total journal sales 81 Alicia Wise, director of access and policy at Elsevier and chair of The PA’s Academic, Professional and Learning Publishers Council 10.1 Publisher income from learned journals 83 10.2 Publisher subscription income from learned journals by format 84

11 Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing 85 Rights and coeditions review by Lynette Owen, copyright and rights consultant Total income from photocopying, scanning and digital licensing of extracts by Sarah Faulder, chief executive, Publishers Licensing Society (PLS) 11.1 Publisher gross income from coeditions and rights 87 11.2 Publisher gross income from rights and coeditions by type of right 88 11.3 Publisher gross income from coeditions and rights by category of publication 89 11.4 Publisher gross income from foreign language coeditions and rights by region 90 11.5 Publisher gross income from foreign language rights and coeditions by language 91 11.6 Publisher gross income from English language reprints and coeditions 93 11.7 Publisher gross income from rights by type of right and category of publication 94 11.8 Publisher income from coeditions by type of right and category of publication 96 11.9 Authors’ agent income from rights 97 11.10 Other secondary rights income distributed by the Publishers Licensing Society (PLS) 98

vi PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Contents 12 Book production and the environment 101 Review by Peter Hughes, director of sustainability, Pearson 12.1 Publisher purchase and specification of paper 103 12.2 Publisher use of accreditation scheme logos 103 12.3 Publisher output of paper 104

A Technical appendix 105 B Exchange rate appendix 110 Exchange rate changes affecting book exporters by Dr Frank Fishwick, statistics consultant C Trends in the UK school market by level of education 113 D UK higher education textbook market by category 116

Tables 1.1a Publisher sales of books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 3 1.1b Publisher sales of home and export books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 4 1.1c Publisher sales of physical and digital books: by category (net invoiced value) 5 1.2a Publisher sales of physical books: home and export 6 1.2b Publisher sales of physical books: by category (net invoiced value) 7 1.2c Publisher sales of physical books: by category (net units) 7 1.3a Average invoiced price of physical books: home and export 9 1.3b Average invoiced price of physical books: by category 9 1.4a Publisher returns of physical books (% of gross value sales) 10 1.4b Publisher returns of physical books (% of gross unit sales) 10 1.5a Publisher sales of digital books: by format (net invoiced value) 11 1.5b Publisher sales of digital books: by category (net invoiced value) 12 2.1a Publisher home sales of books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 15 2.1b Publisher home sales of physical and digital books: by category (net invoiced value) 16 2.2a Publisher home sales of physical books: by category (net invoiced value) 17 2.2b Publisher home sales of physical books: by category (net units) 17 2.3 Average invoiced price of physical book home sales: by category 18 2.4 UK physical book market: by category (value at end purchase price) 19 2.5 Publisher home sales of digital books: by category (net invoiced value) 20 3.1a Publisher export sales of books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 23 3.1b Publisher export sales of physical and digital books: by category (net invoiced value) 24 3.2a Publisher export sales of physical books: by category (net invoiced value) 25 3.2b Publisher export sales of physical books: by category (net units) 25 3.3 Average invoiced price of physical book exports: by category 26 3.4 Export sales of physical books: by region (net invoiced value) 27 3.5 Publisher export sales of digital books: by category (net invoiced value) 28 4.1a Publisher sales of fiction books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 31 4.1b Publisher sales of home and export fiction books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 32 4.2a Publisher sales of physical fiction books: home and export 33 4.2b Publisher sales of physical fiction books: by format 34 4.3 Average invoiced price of physical fiction books 35 4.4 Export sales of physical fiction books: by region (net invoiced value) 36 5.1a Publisher sales of non‑fiction/reference books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 39 5.1b Publisher sales of home and export non‑fiction/reference books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 40 5.2a Publisher sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books: home and export 41

Contents | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 vii 5.2b Publisher sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books: by format/category 42 5.3 Average invoiced price of physical non‑fiction/reference books 43 5.4 Export sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books: by region (net invoiced value) 44 6.1a Publisher sales of children’s books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 47 6.1b Publisher sales of home and export children’s books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 48 6.2a Publisher sales of physical children’s books: home and export (net invoiced value) 49 6.2b Publisher sales of physical children’s books: home and export (net units) 49 6.3 Average invoiced price of physical children’s books: home and export 51 6.4 Export sales of physical children’s books: by region (net invoiced value) 52 7.1a Publisher sales of school books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 55 7.1b Publisher sales of home and export school books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 56 7.2a Publisher sales of physical school books: home and export (net invoiced value) 57 7.2b Publisher sales of physical school books: home and export (net units) 57 7.3 Average invoiced price of physical school books: home and export 59 7.4 Export sales of physical school books: by region (net invoiced value) 60 8.1a Publisher sales of ELT books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 63 8.1b Publisher sales of home and export ELT books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 64 8.2a Publisher sales of physical ELT books: home and export (net invoiced value) 65 8.2b Publisher sales of physical ELT books: home and export (net units) 65 8.3 Average invoiced price of physical ELT books: home and export 67 8.4 Export sales of physical ELT books: by region (net invoiced value) 68 9.1a Publisher sales of academic/professional books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 71 9.1b Publisher sales of academic/professional books by category: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 72 9.1c Publisher sales of home and export social science/humanities books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 73 9.1d Publisher sales of home and export science/technical/medical books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 74 9.2a Publisher sales of physical academic/professional books: home and export 75 9.2b Publisher sales of physical social science/humanities books: home and export 76 9.2c Publisher sales of physical science/technical/medical books: home and export 77 9.3a Average invoiced price of physical academic/professional books: home and export 78 9.3b Average invoiced price of physical academic/professional books: by category: home and export 78 9.4a Export sales of social science/humanities books: by region (net invoiced value) 79 9.4b Export sales of physical science/technical/medical books: by region (net invoiced value) 80 10.1 Publisher income from learned journals (net invoiced value) 83 10.2 Publisher subscription income from learned journals by format (net invoiced value) 84 11.1 Total gross receipts from rights and coeditions 87 11.2 Publisher gross receipts from rights income by type of right 88 11.3 Publisher gross receipts from coeditions and rights by category of publication 89 11.4 Publisher gross receipts from combined coeditions and rights by region 90 11.5 Income from rights and coeditions by language 91 11.6 Publisher gross receipts from English language reprints and coeditions 93 11.7 Income from rights by type of right and category of publication 94 11.8 Income from coeditions by type of right and category of publication 96 11.9 Agent income by categories 97 11.10 Publisher total income from photocopying, scanning and digital licensing of extracts (PLS) 98 12.3 Comparison of total output by weight produced on paper from known and unknown sources 104 A3 Derivation of UK book market size 2014 –15 108 B1 Exchange rates: 2000 –15 110 B2 Maximum and minimum values of exchange rates 112

viii PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Contents Figures 1.1a All books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 3 1.1b Home and exported books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 4 1.1c All physical and digital book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 5 1.2a All physical books: home and export shares (of net sales) 6 1.2b All physical book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 8 1.2c All physical book sales: category shares (of net units) 8 1.5a Digital book sales: format shares (of net invoiced value) 11 1.5b Digital book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 12 2.1a Home sales of books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 15 2.1b Physical and digital home book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 16 2.2 Physical book home sales: category shares (of net sales) 18 2.4 UK physical book market: category shares (of value at end purchase price) 19 2.5 Digital home book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 20 3.1a Export books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 23 3.1b Physical and digital export book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 24 3.2 Physical book exports: category shares (of net sales) 26 3.4 Exported physical books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 27 3.5 Digital export book sales: category shares (of net invoiced value) 28 4.1a Fiction books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 31 4.1b Home and exported fiction books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 32 4.2a Physical fiction books: home and export shares (of net sales) 33 4.2b Physical fiction books: format shares (of net invoiced value) 34 4.2c Physical fiction books: format shares (of net units) 35 4.4 Exported physical fiction books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 36 5.1a Non‑fiction/reference books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 39 5.1b Home and exported non‑fiction/reference books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 40 5.2a Physical non‑fiction/reference books: home and export shares (of net sales) 41 5.2b Physical non‑fiction/reference books: format/category shares (of net invoiced value) 42 5.2c Physical non‑fiction/reference books: format/category shares (of net units) 43 5.4 Exported physical non‑fiction/reference books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 44 6.1a Children’s books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 47 6.1b Home and exported children’s books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 48 6.2a Physical children’s books: home and export shares (of net invoiced value) 50 6.2b Physical children’s books: home and export shares (of net units) 50 6.3 Index of average price of physical children’s book sales: home and export 51 6.4 Exported physical children’s books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 52 7.1a School books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 55 7.1b Home and exported school books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 56 7.2a Physical school books: home and export shares (of net invoiced value) 58 7.2b Physical school books: home and export shares (of net units) 58 7.3 Index of average price of physical school book sales: home and export 59 7.4 Exported physical school books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 60 8.1a ELT books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 63 8.1b Home and exported ELT books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 64 8.2a Physical ELT books: home and export shares (of net invoiced value) 66 8.2b Physical ELT books: home and export shares (of net units) 66 8.3 Index of average price of physical ELT book sales: home and export 67

Contents | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 ix 8.4 Exported physical ELT books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 68 9.1a Academic/professional books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 71 9.1b Academic/professional books by category: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 72 9.1c Home and exported social science/humanities books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 73 9.1d Home and exported science/technical/medical books: physical and digital shares (of net invoiced value) 74 9.2a Physical academic/professional books: home and export shares (of net sales) 75 9.2b Physical social science/humanities books: home and export shares (of net sales) 76 9.2c Physical science/technical/medical books: home and export shares (of net sales) 77 9.4a Exported social science/humanities books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 79 9.4b Exported physical science/technical/medical books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 80 10.1 Share of income by type 83 10.2 Share of subscription income by format 84 11.1 Gross receipts: share of income 87 11.2 Rights and coeditions income: type of right share 88 11.3 Coeditions and rights income: category of publication share (of gross receipts) 89 11.4 Combined rights and coeditions income: region share (of gross receipts) 90 11.5 Publisher income from rights and coeditions: language share 92 11.6 English language reprints, coeditions and rights: share (of gross receipts) 93 11.7 Income from rights: share of type by category of publication 95 11.8 Income from coeditions: share of type by category of publication 96 11.9 Agent income: category share 97 11.10 PLS distributable revenue year‑on‑year 98 11.11 PLS distributable income: source share 99 12.1 Publisher specification of paper as being sustainable 103 12.2 Publisher use of accredited logos 103 12.3 Output: known and unknown shares 104 B1 Exchange rate indices: Book‑exports‑weighted and Bank of England since 2005 111 C1 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related learning resources to UK school market 113 C2 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related learning resources to primary schools 114 C3 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related learning resources to secondary schools 114 C4 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related learning resources to further education (vocational) colleges 115 D1 Higher education textbook sales by category 116

x PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Contents Preface

Stephen Lotinga, chief executive, The Publishers Association

elcome to the PA Statistics Yearbook 2015. The Yearbook, now in its 11th year, W is considered by publishers, the government and media to be the definitive guide for statistics and analysis of the UK publishing industry.

This year’s report shows further growth in UK publishing with an increase in sales to £4.4bn, with digital contributing 32%. Exports of physical and digital books made up 43% of this and when we factor in journals as well the figure is 54%. Such statistics, while important, do not tell the full story of the wider contribution that publishers make to the British economy and we must strive to ensure this is recognised. This industry is made up of an extraordinary number of great businesses that not only create prosperity, but also remain central to the dissemination of information, entertainment, analysis and education throughout the world.

Beneath the headline figures is the eye‑catching fact that for the first time since the invention of the ebook, print sales are seeing a resurgence. Those who made predictions about the death of the book may have underestimated just how much people love paper. While it is too early to make claims about what this may mean in the longer term, it should be seen as indicative of an industry that is confident in its future bridging multiple formats and audiences.

The figures in this Yearbook should be put into the context of a booming creative economy. The latest government statistics show that the gross value added of the UK creative industries is £84.1bn, that these industries provide 1.8m jobs and that they have outstripped most other sectors in terms of growth over the last five years. When government ministers talk about the need for a diversified economy, they should pay close attention to the impressive achievements of the creative sector.

The publishing industry continues to contribute significantly to the UK economy and it is our job as your association to ensure that is properly recognised by decision‑makers. The next 10 years will be absolutely defining for publishing as the trends of globalisation, new technologies and new ways of working accelerate. I have no doubt that future editions of the Yearbook will need to adapt to properly reflect the industry’s continuing development and collective value.

Preface | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 xi Statistics matter, not least for informing business decisions, but especially when we are trying to influence the business and regulatory environment in which we operate. That is why we are constantly seeking to improve the Yearbook, with invaluable input and collaboration from you, our members. I would like to thank all of those who have been involved in the collation and editing of this year’s publication, but especially The PA’s Mandy Knight for the remarkable job of bringing this all together.

I hope that you find this year’s publication as valuable and insightful as I do, and feel free to contact us with any additions you would like to see in future years.

xii PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Preface 1 Total book sales

Annual review by Joanna Prior, managing director of Penguin General Books (part of Penguin Random House UK) and president of The Publishers Association, 2015 –16

ooking back over the last five years, it is clear that the UK publishing industry is L in good health, sustained by annual phenomena that grab consumers’ attention. From Fifty Shades to Minecraft; from cross-over young adult fiction to colouring books, from health and fitness to retro-humour, publishers have been able to identify and capitalise on the big trends.

£3,314m 2015 was notable for being the first year in a long time in which the UK book trade Total physical and experienced an increase in physical book sales. However, it was also the year in which digital book sales digital sales growth finally went into reverse, following the slow‑down in 2014. Both the increase and decrease are too small, however, for us to make any claims for big shifts £2,760m in consumer behaviour or make predictions for what lies ahead. But I do think that any Total physical book sales suggestion that the physical book is doomed can now definitively be refuted as we trade less neurotically in a more stable, multi‑format world. ªª £554m Total digital book sales The digital slow‑down is not found across all segments of publishing. Audio downloads are following their strong performance last year with double‑digit growth again in 2015. ªª 11% to £245m Educational publishers also saw a 23% growth in digital revenues last year, an indication Total consumer ebooks that teachers and pupils appear to be becoming increasingly confident in using digital materials in the classroom and realising the ability such materials have to deliver ©© 10% to £122m personalised learning and assessment. Total non-consumer ebooks Last year’s publishing phenomena may also provide an explanation for the drop in digital revenues in 2015. More data is needed before we can provide a categorical explanation, ©© 29% to £12m but the fall may have less to do with a decline in people willing to read books electronically Total consumer than with a lack of suitability for ebook conversion of the type of book – colouring, audiobook download the Ladybird humour series, cookery and diet – behind the growth in physical sales.

ªªto 43% The fall in children’s sales in 2015 was almost inevitable following a spectacular performance – Export share of total spearheaded by John Green’s Fault in Our Stars – the year before. Closer analysis of the value sales of physical five‑year figures shows that 2015 numbers are reverting to the very healthy 2013 levels. and digital books Academic/professional titles continued to account for just under a third of the invoiced value of combined physical and digital sales in 2015, with non-fiction/reference taking a quarter of sales – an increase of over 8%, again a reflection of the colouring book phenomenon.

Total book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 1 Export sales remain a core component of UK publishing revenues. While figures from 2015 show a slight fall from the previous year, total export revenues remain high at £1.42bn, with a combination of education, academic and ELT (English language teaching) accounting for two‑thirds of this – marking educational publishing as the powerhouse of the UK publishing industry’s export business. Over 35% of physical book export revenue came from Europe, with sales to the Middle East and North Africa, Asia and South America increasing. However, publishers have not been exempt from the fragile global economic environment facing all export businesses. Strong growth in these developing markets has been very welcome, but the macroeconomic difficulties facing the North American and European markets have, not surprisingly, had an impact.

Overall, these figures demonstrate the continued demand, both at home and abroad, for UK published material, whether that be the latest fiction bestseller, our world‑renowned scientific journals or textbooks for the classroom.

2 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total book sales 1.1 Publisher sales of books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of books rose marginally in 2015, to £3,314m, driven by a slight increase in physical book sales (to £2,760m), and despite a 2% drop in digital sales (to £554m).1 Physical sales were, however, 9% lower in 2015 than in 2011, but with digital sales more than doubling over the five years, there was a 1% increase in sales overall over the period (Table 1.1a).

Table 1.1a TOTAL Physical Digital Publisher sales of books: physical £m £m £m and digital (net invoiced value) 2011 3,286 3,030 256 2012 3,463 3,039 424 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 3,386 2,880 506 2014 3,311 2,748 563 2015 3,314 2,760 554 % change in sales 2012/2011 +5.4 +0.3 +65.5 2013/2012 -2.2 -5.2 +19.3 2014/2013 -2.2 -4.6 +11.2 2015/2014 +0.1 +0.4 -1.6

2015/2011 +0.9 -8.9 +116.0

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, audio downloads, online subscriptions and other digital book sales) accounted for 17% of the total invoiced value of book sales in 2015, with no change over 2014, but rising from 8% in 2011 (Figure 1.1a).

Figure 1.1a All books: physical and digital shares 100% 8 (of net invoiced value) 12 15 90% 17 17

80% Digital sales 70%

60% Physical sales 50% 92 88 85 40% 83 83

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 The digital sales recorded in this Yearbook represent the traditional publishing sector, and will not reflect sales of self‑published titles, Amazon editions and from new digital‑only media companies (see Technical Appendix). Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Total book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 3 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales to UK customers rose 3% in 2015, with a 3% increase for physical books more than making up for a 1% drop for digital. Export sales of both physical and digital books fell 3% in 2015. Since 2013, digital sales to UK customers rose by 12%, with digital export revenue up 6%. In each case, these increases were outweighed by decreases in physical sales over the three years (Table 1.1b).

Table 1.1b – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital export books: physical and digital £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 1,912 1,612 299 1,474 1,267 207 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 1,845 1,507 338 1,466 1,242 225 2015 1,893 1,558 335 1,421 1,202 218 % change in sales 2014/2013 -3.5 -6.6 +13.0 -0.5 -2.0 +8.6 2015/2014 +2.7 +3.4 -0.8 -3.1 -3.2 -2.8

2015/2013 -0.9 -3.4 +12.1 -3.6 -5.1 +5.5

Digital accounted for 18% of the invoiced value of UK publisher’s book sales in the UK market in 2015 and 15% of export sales. These shares were the same as in 2014, but had risen from 16% and 14% respectively in 2013 (Figure 1.1b).

Figure 1.1b Home and exported books: 100% physical and digital shares 14 15 15 90% 16 18 18 (of net invoiced value) 80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 86 85 85 40% 84 82 82

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

4 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total book sales 2015 saw 8 – 9% increases in the total invoiced value of UK publisher sales (physical plus digital) of non‑fiction/reference and school books, contrasting with a double-digit decrease for children’s books, and smaller (2 – 4%) decreases for fiction, ELT and academic and professional. Combined physical and digital sales of school books rose 15% between 2011 and 2015, with marginal increases as well for fiction, non-fiction/reference and ELT over the period, but a small drop in revenue from sales of academic/professional books (Table 1.1c).

Table 1.1c Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher sales of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional and digital books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 3,286 562 803 314 277 262 1,067 2012 3,463 680 807 322 286 294 1,074 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 3,386 599 818 314 291 283 1,082 2014 3,311 574 748 349 293 272 1,074 2015 3,314 563 808 314 319 262 1,049 % change in sales 2012/2011 +5.4 +20.9 +0.5 +2.4 +3.3 +12.3 +0.6 2013/2012 -2.2 -11.8 +1.3 -2.6 +1.5 -3.8 +0.7 2014/2013 -2.2 -4.1 -8.5 +11.3 +0.9 -3.9 -0.7 2015/2014 +0.1 -2.0 +8.1 -10.2 +8.6 -3.6 -2.4

2015/2011 +0.9 +0.2 +0.6 -0.2 +15.0 +0.1 -1.8

Academic/professional titles continued to account for just under a third of the invoiced value of combined physical and digital sales in 2015, with non-fiction/reference taking a quarter of sales. Fiction maintained a 17% share of revenue over the 2011–15 period, while the school sector increased share from 8% to 10%. Children’s and ELT took 9% and 8% of sales in 2015, with the children’s share lower than in 2014 and 2011 (Figure 1.1c).

Figure 1.1c All physical and digital book sales: 100% category shares (of net invoiced value) 90% 32 31 32 32 32 80% Academic/professional 70% 8 8 8 8 8 ELT 60% 8 8 9 9 10 50% 10 9 9 School 11 9 40%

30% 23 24 Children’s 24 23 24 20%

Non‑fiction/reference 10% 17 20 18 17 17 0% Fiction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

Total book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 5 1.2 Publisher sales of physical books

The small increase in the invoiced value of physical book sales in 2015 was driven by 3% growth in home sales, and came despite a 3% drop in revenue from physical book exports. In terms of volume, a 6% decrease in export units slightly outweighed a 4% increase for home sales. Between 2011 and 2015, the value of export sales of physical books fell at a lower rate (7%) than home sales (11%). Volume sales fell faster than value over the five years, with 15% and 13% decreases in unit sales to the home and export markets respectively (Table 1.2a).

Table 1.2a – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical books: Total Physical Physical Total Physical Physical home and export physical home export physical home export £m £m £m m units m units m units NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 3,030 1,744 1,286 713.9 421.7 292.2 2012 3,039 1,721 1,317 713.2 417.0 296.2 2013 2,880 1,612 1,267 660.8 379.9 280.9 2014 2,748 1,507 1,242 613.7 344.1 269.6 2015 2,760 1,558 1,202 612.1 358.1 254.0 % change in sales 2012/2011 +0.3 -1.3 +2.4 -0.1 -1.1 +1.4 2013/2012 -5.2 -6.3 -3.8 -7.3 -8.9 -5.2 2014/2013 -4.6 -6.6 -2.0 -7.1 -9.4 -4.1 2015/2014 +0.4 +3.4 -3.2 -0.3 +4.1 -5.8

2015/2011 -8.9 -10.6 -6.5 -14.3 -15.1 -13.1

The home market gained share of total physical book sales in 2015 by both volume and value. However, exports still accounted for a higher proportion of value in 2015 (44%) than in 2011 (42%) (Figure 1.2a).

Figure 1.2a All physical books: home and export 100% shares (of net sales) 90%

80% 41 41 42 43 44 45 44 42 43 44 Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50%

40%

30% 59 59 58 57 56 55 56 58 57 56 20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

6 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total book sales The small rise in the value of physical books sold by UK publishers in 2015 was driven by 8 – 9% increases in school and non-fiction/reference book sales, with fiction sales also up slightly over 2014. In contrast, children’s sales decreased by 9% and ELT and academic/professional sales fell by 4 – 5% each. Between 2011 and 2015, revenue from sales of physical school books rose by 12%, while sales of non-fiction/reference, children’s books and ELT fell slightly, academic/professional sales were down by 15%, and fiction sales dropped by a quarter (Table 1.2b).

Table 1.2b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher sales of physical books: TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional by category (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 3,030 492 783 307 271 256 921 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 3,039 505 767 310 277 288 893 2013 2,880 400 763 298 280 274 866 2014 2,748 364 694 328 281 261 822 2015 2,760 367 759 299 303 247 787 % change in sales 2012/2011 +0.3 +2.6 -2.0 +0.8 +2.3 +12.2 -3.0 2013/2012 -5.2 -20.8 -0.5 -3.8 +1.0 -4.9 -3.0 2014/2013 -4.6 -9.0 -9.0 +10.0 +0.2 -4.8 -5.1 2015/2014 +0.4 +0.8 +9.3 -8.8 +7.9 -5.2 -4.3

2015/2011 -8.9 -25.4 -3.0 -2.8 +11.7 -3.7 -14.6

Unit sales of physical books decreased in 2015 for children’s, school, ELT and academic/professional books, whereas fiction and non-fiction/reference recorded 3% and 10% growth respectively. However, all categories saw lower unit sales of physical books in 2015 compared to 2011, with fiction, school books and academic/professional sales down by around a quarter, ELT down 10%, and single‑digit decreases for non-fiction/reference and children’s (Table 1.2c).

Table 1.2c Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher sales of physical books: TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional by category (net units) m m m m m m m 2011 713.9 166.0 191.1 164.3 59.7 72.2 60.5 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 713.2 167.2 191.4 165.2 49.0 82.3 58.0 2013 660.8 129.3 185.0 159.9 53.9 78.5 54.1 2014 613.7 114.4 168.8 165.7 46.8 69.3 48.6 2015 612.1 117.7 185.2 154.0 45.4 65.1 44.7 % change in sales 2012/2011 -0.1 +0.7 +0.1 +0.5 -17.9 +14.0 -4.1 2013/2012 -7.3 -22.7 -3.3 -3.2 +9.9 -4.6 -6.7 2014/2013 -7.1 -11.5 -8.7 +3.6 -13.2 -11.7 -10.2 2015/2014 -0.3 +2.9 +9.7 -7.1 -2.9 -6.2 -8.0

2015/2011 -14.3 -29.1 -3.1 -6.3 -24.0 -9.9 -26.0

Total book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 7 Between 2011 and 2015, the non-fiction/reference sector saw its share of invoiced value sales of physical books rise from 26% to 28% of value and from 27% to 30% of units. Children’s books also gained over the five years, despite losing share in 2015. The school book share of value sales rose from 9% to 11% between 2011 and 2015, despite losing a little share in volume. The fiction category saw its share fall from 16% to 13% of value and from 23% to 19% of unit sales over the five years, with the academic/professional sector also losing 2% points of share by both measures over the same period (Figures 1.2b and 1.2c).

Figure 1.2b All physical book sales: 100% category shares (of net invoiced value) 90% 30 29 30 30 28 80% Academic/professional 70% 9 10 10 9 9 ELT 60% 9 9 10 10 11 50% 10 10 School 10 12 11 40%

30% Children’s 26 25 27 25 28 20%

Non‑fiction/reference 10% 16 17 14 13 13 0% Fiction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

Figure 1.2c All physical book sales: 100% 7 category shares (of net units) 9 8 8 8 90% 10 12 12 11 11 80% 8 7 8 7 Academic/professional 8 70%

23 25 ELT 60% 23 24 27

50% School 40% 27 27 28 30 30% 28 Children’s 20%

23 23 Non‑fiction/reference 10% 20 19 19

0% Fiction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

8 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total book sales 1.3 Average invoiced price of physical books

The average invoiced price for physical books sold by UK publishers in 2015 was £4.51, up by 3p (1%) on 2014, and 6% higher than the average for 2011. The average invoiced price of physical books sold to the home market fell 1% to £4.35 in 2015, while export prices were up 3% to £4.73. Export prices for physical books rose by 8% between 2011 and 2015, ahead of a 5% increase in the invoiced price of books sold to the home market (Table 1.3a).

Table 1.3a TOTAL Home Export Average invoiced price of physical £ £ £ books: home and export 2011 4.24 4.13 4.40 2012 4.26 4.13 4.45 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 4.36 4.24 4.51 2014 4.48 4.38 4.61 2015 4.51 4.35 4.73 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +0.4 -0.2 +1.1 2013/2012 +2.3 +2.8 +1.4 2014/2013 +2.8 +3.1 +2.1 2015/2014 +0.7 -0.6 +2.7

2015/2011 +6.3 +5.2 +7.5

2015 saw increases in the average invoiced price of ELT, academic/professional, and particularly school books, contrasting with a small drop in average prices in fiction, non-fiction/reference and children’s. Between 2011 and 2015, the school book price rose the most (by 47%), with a 16% increase in academic/professional book prices, 4–7% prices rises for fiction, children’s and ELT, but only a marginal increase in prices for non-fiction/reference books (Table 1.3b).

Table 1.3b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Average invoiced price of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional books: by category £ £ £ £ £ £ £

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 4.24 2.96 4.09 1.87 4.54 3.55 15.23 2012 4.26 3.02 4.01 1.87 5.66 3.49 15.40 2013 4.36 3.09 4.12 1.86 5.20 3.49 16.00 2014 4.48 3.18 4.11 1.98 6.00 3.76 16.90 2015 4.51 3.11 4.10 1.94 6.67 3.80 17.59 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +0.4 +1.9 -2.2 +0.2 +24.7 -1.6 +1.1 2013/2012 +2.3 +2.4 +2.9 -0.6 -8.2 -0.3 +3.9 2014/2013 +2.8 +2.9 -0.3 +6.1 +15.5 +7.8 +5.6 2015/2014 +0.7 -2.0 -0.3 -1.9 +11.2 +1.0 +4.0

2015/2011 +6.3 +5.2 +0.1 +3.7 +47.0 +6.9 +15.5

Total book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 9 1.4 Publisher returns of physical books

Returns stood at 10% of total gross value sales of physical books in 2015, 5% lower than in 2014, and 15% below the 2011 level. In units, the total returns rate in 2015 was 8% of gross sales, down 4% on 2014 and 12% on 2011. In the home market, returns stood at 11% of gross value sales of physical books in 2015, and 10% of gross unit sales, in each case 7 – 8% lower than in 2014, and significantly below the 2011 levels. In exports, the 2015 rates of 7% for value and 4% for units were similar to 2014, but a little higher than in 2011 (Tables 1.4a and 1.4b).

Table 1.4a TOTAL Home Export Publisher returns of physical books % % % (% of gross value sales) 2011 11.3 14.2 7.0

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 11.2 13.7 7.6 2013 11.5 13.5 8.8 2014 10.1 12.3 7.3 2015 9.5 11.3 7.2 % change in returns rate 2012/2011 -0.9 -3.4 +9.3 2013/2012 +2.6 -1.9 +15.5 2014/2013 -11.9 -8.6 -17.4 2015/2014 -5.4 -8.2 -1.0

2015/2011 -15.3 -20.5 +3.2

Table 1.4b TOTAL Home Export Publisher returns of physical books % % % (% of gross unit sales) 2011 8.5 11.3 4.1

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 9.1 11.2 5.9 2013 9.2 11.8 5.5 2014 7.7 10.3 4.3 2015 7.5 9.6 4.4 % change in returns rate 2012/2011 +6.9 -0.9 +44.6 2013/2012 +1.7 +5.0 -5.7 2014/2013 -16.1 -12.8 -22.4 2015/2014 -3.5 -7.0 +1.8

2015/2011 -12.0 -15.7 +7.8

10 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total book sales 1.5 Publisher sales of digital books 2

The overall drop in the invoiced value of digital sales in 2015 was driven by an 11% decrease for consumer ebooks to £245m. This contrasted with a rise of over a quarter in sales of audiobook downloads (to £12m), with non-consumer ebook sales up 10% to £122m, online subscriptions/access sales rising 2% to £150m, and other non-consumer sales up 18% to £23m (Table 1.5a).

Table 1.5a Consumer Non‑ Online Publisher sales of digital books: audiobook Consumer Consumer consumer subscription/ Other non‑ by format (net invoiced value) TOTAL download ebook other ebook access consumer £m £m £m £m £m £m £m NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding * = <£0.5m 2011 256 5 94 * 36 101 20 2012 424 7 220 1 62 113 21 2013 506 8 261 1 93 121 22 2014 563 10 275 1 111 147 19 2015 554 12 245 2 122 150 23 % change in sales 2012/2011 +65.5 +32.9 +134.1 +231.1 +74.5 +11.7 +5.8 2013/2012 +19.3 +17.8 +18.5 +34.3 +49.6 +6.9 +4.0 2014/2013 +11.2 +23.5 +5.3 +87.7 +18.6 +21.2 -12.2 2015/2014 -1.6 +28.5 -10.9 +10.8 +10.2 +2.2 +17.8

2015/2011 +116.0 +148.4 +160.2 +824.8 +241.4 +48.0 +13.9

Consumer ebooks accounted for 44% of the invoiced value of UK publishers’ digital sales in 2015, down from 52% in 2012, but ahead of the 37% figure recorded in 2011. The non-consumer ebook share of digital sales increased from 14% to 22% between 2011 and 2015, while online subscriptions/access has accounted for a quarter of sales since 2012, albeit falling from a 40% share in 2011 (Figure 1.5a).

Figure 1.5a Digital book sales: format shares 100% 3 8 5 4 4 (of net invoiced value) 90% 24 26 27 80% 27 Other non‑consumer 40 70% 19 60% 15 20 Online subscription/access 22 50% 14 Non‑consumer ebook 40%

30% 52 52 Consumer ebook 49 44 20% 37

Audiobook download 10% 2 2 2 2 2 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

2 See Technical Appendix for details of definitions and coverage of digital book sales.

Total book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 11 In 2015, UK publisher’s invoiced digital sales in the consumer categories dropped 9% to £261m, with digital fiction sales down 7% on 2014 at £196m, non-fiction/reference down 8% to £50m, and children‘s digital sales falling almost a third to £15m. In contrast, digital sales of school books rose by 23% to £16m in 2015, with digital ELT sales up by a third (to £15m), and digital book sales in the academic/professional sector growing 4% to £262m. Between 2011 and 2015, growth in digital sales has been fastest for ELT, school books and fiction, and slowest (albeit still almost doubling) for academic/professional (Table 1.5b).

Table 1.5b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher sales of digital books: TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional by category (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 256 70 21 7 6 5 147 2012 424 175 40 12 9 6 181 2013 506 200 55 16 11 9 216 2014 563 211 54 22 13 11 252 2015 554 196 50 15 16 15 262 % change in sales 2012/2011 +65.5 +148.9 +95.4 +71.4 +50.6 +18.1 +23.4 2013/2012 +19.3 +14.2 +36.2 +28.3 +18.4 +44.8 +19.0 2014/2013 +11.2 +5.5 -2.0 +36.0 +20.4 +25.4 +17.0 2015/2014 -1.6 -6.9 -8.1 -30.2 +23.2 +34.6 +3.8

2015/2011 +116.0 +179.3 +139.7 +109.0 +164.6 +188.4 +78.2

The academic/professional sector has seen its share of digital sales increase from 43% to 47% between 2012 and 2015, though this remained well below 2011 levels. The fiction share has fallen from 41% to 35% since 2012, but remains ahead of the 27% share seen in 2011. The proportion of digital revenue taken by non-fiction/reference rose from 8% to 9% over the five years, while the combined school and ELT share increased from 4% to 6% over the same period (Figure 1.5b).

Figure 1.5b Digital book sales: category shares 100% (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% 43 43 45 47 Academic/professional 70% 57

ELT 60% 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 50% 3 3 4 3 10 11 School 2 10 3 40% 2 9 3 30% 8 Children’s 41 20% 39 37 35 27 Non‑fiction/reference 10%

0% Fiction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

12 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total book sales 2 Home (UK) book sales

Sector review by Anna Bond, UK sales director, Pan Macmillan

015 was the year when the physical book fought back. While digital book sales 2 declined slightly, the UK physical market ended the year £51m up in value and 14m up in volume. It was also the year that saw a revival of the non-fiction market, which ended £51m up in value and 13m up in volume. Children’s books, competing against a bumper year in 2014, were 6% down in physical and digital combined, and academic print books were 3% down. But home school book sales were 13% up.

©© 3% to £1,893m January 2015 was a great month, establishing trends that went a long way to drive the Home physical and growth within the UK book market throughout the year. Healthy cookery took hold, and digital book sales according to the Nielsen BookScan Total Consumer Market (TCM) was worth £15m versus £9m in 2014. Yellow Kite’s launch of Deliciously Ella in January focused consumers ©© 3% to £1,558m on the joy of spiralising, and over the year there were several other successes in this genre, Home physical book culminating in Jamie Oliver’s Everyday Superfood (Michael Joseph) as the healthy eating sales Christmas gift of choice.

ªª 1% to £335m Colouring books, which recorded only modest sales as recently as 2014, became hugely Home digital book sales valuable to the industry last year. Initiated by Joanna Basford (Laurence King), Millie Marotta (Batsford) and Emma Farrarons (Boxtree), the craze was responsible for whole bays of 18% further titles as the year went on. Digital share of home book sales Three blockbuster novels also helped the print book market: Paula Hawkins’ The Girl on the Train (Doubleday), which held the number one slot in original fiction for 25 weeks of the ©© 9% to £569m year; Harper Lee’s Go Set a Watchman (Wm Heinemann); and EL James’s Grey (Arrow). Home sales of non‑fiction/ YouTubers such as Dan Howell and Phil Lester (The Amazing Book Is Not on Fire, Ebury) reference physical and suggested that the vloggers’ books phenomenon will be here for a while. digital books It was also the year when the joy of the beautiful physical book, not just to be coloured ©© 13% to £189m in, came to the fore. Some of the production values on trade titles were stunning, with Home sales of school special editions and backlist reinventions gaining more shelf space on our high streets. physical and digital books The Alice in Wonderland 150th anniversary saw a sales increase in Lewis Carroll’s masterpiece, in all its print book forms, from £563,000 to £1.6m, and the Shakespeare and ©© 2% to £504m Roald Dahl anniversaries will undoubtedly boost their numbers in 2016. The prize for the Home sales of academic cleverest reinvention has to go to the Ladybird books for grown-ups, Christmas bestsellers and professional books, that achieved a turnover of £7.4m. physical and digital

Home (UK) book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 13 Digital sales from mainstream publishers recorded a small, 1% decline – though figures from the Nielsen Books & Consumers survey suggest that total ebook sales in the UK consumer market were up, owing to a growth in sales of self-published titles not recorded in the Yearbook. But there was growth in audio downloads, perhaps because of the ease with which audiobooks can be accessed by mobile devices.

In the final week of the year Bluebird published Joe Wicks’ Lean in 15, and its first‑week sale was the biggest of any non-fiction book in the year. The vlogger plus healthy cookbook combination has ensured a good start for non-fiction sales for the next 12 months.

14 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Home (UK) book sales 2.1 Publisher home sales of books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher home sales of books rose 3% in 2015, to £1,893m, with a 3% rise in physical sales, outweighing a 1% drop in digital sales to UK customers.3 Conversely, home sales of physical books were 3% lower in 2015 than in 2013, and this slightly outweighed a 12% increase for digital over the three years (Table 2.1a).

Table 2.1a TOTAL Physical Digital Publisher home sales of £m £m £m books: physical and digital 2013 1,912 1,612 299 (net invoiced value) 2014 1,845 1,507 338 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2015 1,893 1,558 335 % change in sales 2014/2013 -3.5 -6.6 +13.0 2015/2014 +2.7 +3.4 -0.8

2015/2013 -0.9 -3.4 +12.1

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, audio downloads, online subscriptions and other digital book sales) accounted for 18% of the total invoiced value of home sales of books in 2015, unchanged from 2014, but up from 16% in 2013 (Figure 2.1a).

Figure 2.1a Home sales of books: physical and 100% digital shares (of net invoiced value) 90% 16 18 18

80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50%

40% 84 82 82

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015

3 The digital sales recorded in this Yearbook represent the traditional publishing sector, and will not reflect sales of self‑published titles, Amazon editions and from new digital‑only media companies (see Technical Appendix). Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Home (UK) book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 15 The rise in the invoiced value of UK publisher home sales (physical plus digital) in 2015 was driven by a 9% increase in revenue from non-fiction/reference, with growth as well for school books and academic/professional titles in 2015 versus 2014, and compared to 2013. Home sales of fiction, children’s books and ELT decreased in 2015 over 2014, and together with non-fiction/reference were also lower in 2015 than in 2013 (Table 2.1b).

Table 2.1b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher home sales of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional and digital books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 1,912 422 580 230 173 14 492

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 1,845 406 522 241 167 14 495 2015 1,893 393 569 227 189 12 504 % change in sales 2014/2013 -3.5 -3.7 -10.1 +4.8 -3.1 -5.4 +0.5 2015/2014 +2.7 -3.1 +9.0 -6.1 +13.1 -12.8 +1.9

2015/2013 -0.9 -6.7 -2.0 -1.6 +9.6 -17.5 +2.4

The non-fiction/reference sector regained share of home sales revenue in 2015, to account for 30% of the total. The academic/professional and school sectors gained a little share of home sales between 2013 and 2015 to stand at 27% and 10% of the total respectively. Fiction dropped to 21%, while children’s maintained a 12% share over the three years (Figure 2.1b).

Figure 2.1b Physical and digital home 100% book sales: category shares 90% (of net invoiced value) 26 27 27 80% Academic/professional 1 1 1 70% 9 9 10

ELT 60% 12 13 12 50% School 40% 30 28 30 30% Children’s 20%

Non‑fiction/reference 10% 22 22 21

0% Fiction 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

16 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Home (UK) book sales 2.2 Publisher home sales of physical books, by category

2015 saw double-digit increases in the invoiced value of physical home sales of non-fiction/reference and school books, with a 2% rise for fiction, but decreases for children’s, ELT and academic/professional books. Between 2011 and 2015, revenue from physical home sales of fiction was down by a quarter, with home ELT sales (albeit from a low base) down by a third, and academic/professional sales down 15%. Non-fiction/reference and children’s UK sales of physical books also dropped slightly over the five years, while school sales rose by 8% (Table 2.2a).

Table 2.2a Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher home sales of TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional physical books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 1,744 346 566 223 163 15 431

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 1,721 344 546 233 172 13 414 2013 1,612 275 544 218 163 13 399 2014 1,507 247 486 226 157 13 379 2015 1,558 251 537 216 177 10 367 % change in sales 2012/2011 -1.3 -0.7 -3.5 +4.3 +5.5 -13.8 -3.9 2013/2012 -6.3 -20.0 -0.4 -6.1 -5.3 +1.8 -3.6 2014/2013 -6.6 -10.1 -10.7 +3.4 -3.8 -6.7 -5.0 2015/2014 +3.4 +1.6 +10.7 -4.2 +12.8 -21.1 -3.2

2015/2011 -10.6 -27.4 -5.1 -2.9 +8.4 -35.4 -14.8

The fiction and non-fiction/reference sectors saw increases in physical unit sales to the home market in 2015, contrasting with decreases in sales of the other categories. All categories saw lower unit sales in the UK market in 2015 than 2011, with fiction, ELT and academic/professional falling fastest, and non-fiction/reference and children’s seeing the slowest decreases (Table 2.2b).

Table 2.2b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher home sales of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional books: by category (net units) m m m m m m m 2011 421.7 116.4 134.1 117.1 23.5 1.8 28.8 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 417.0 112.4 131.0 119.1 25.0 1.6 27.9 2013 379.9 88.2 127.4 113.8 24.0 1.7 24.8 2014 344.1 76.2 114.5 109.0 21.2 1.7 21.6 2015 358.1 79.9 127.2 108.3 21.0 1.1 20.5 % change in sales 2012/2011 -1.1 -3.4 -2.3 +1.7 +6.4 -15.4 -3.1 2013/2012 -8.9 -21.6 -2.7 -4.5 -3.9 +11.2 -11.2 2014/2013 -9.4 -13.6 -10.1 -4.2 -11.7 -3.9 -12.6 2015/2014 +4.1 +4.9 +11.1 -0.7 -0.8 -31.9 -5.0

2015/2011 -15.1 -31.3 -5.1 -7.6 -10.5 -38.5 -28.7

Home (UK) book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 17 The fiction share of physical book sales to the UK market fell from 20% to 16% of value, and from 28% to 22% of units between 2011 and 2015, with the academic/professional sector also losing a little share over the period. Children’s and non-fiction gained share, though mainly in terms of unit sales, while school books saw their share of physical home sales value rise from 9% to 11% over the five years (Figure 2.2).

Figure 2.2 Physical book home sales: 100% 7 7 7 6 6 category shares (of net sales) 90% 6 6 6 6 6 25 24 25 25 24 80% Academic/professional 28 29 30 32 30 70% 9 10 10 10 11

ELT 60% 13 14 14 15 14 50% School 32 31 40% 34 33 36 33 32 34 32 34 30% Children’s 20% 28 27 Non‑fiction/reference 10% 23 22 22 20 20 17 16 16 0% Fiction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

2.3 Average invoiced price of physical book home sales, by category

2015 saw double-digit increases in the average invoiced price of physical books sold to the UK market in the school and ELT categories, with a smaller rise in prices of academic/professional titles. However, small decreases in prices in the three larger consumer sectors fuelled a 1% decrease in home market prices overall. Between 2011 and 2015, UK prices rose by 5% overall, with double‑digit increases for academic/professional and school books, and 5–6% rises for fiction, children’s and ELT (Table 2.3).

Table 2.3 Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Average invoiced price of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional book home sales: by category £ £ £ £ £ £ £

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 4.13 2.97 4.22 1.90 6.93 8.32 14.95 2012 4.13 3.06 4.17 1.95 6.87 8.48 14.84 2013 4.24 3.12 4.27 1.92 6.77 7.76 16.12 2014 4.38 3.24 4.24 2.07 7.38 7.53 17.52 2015 4.35 3.14 4.22 2.00 8.39 8.73 17.86 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 -0.2 +2.8 -1.2 +2.6 -0.8 +1.9 -0.7 2013/2012 +2.8 +2.0 +2.4 -1.7 -1.5 -8.4 +8.6 2014/2013 +3.1 +4.1 -0.6 +7.9 +9.0 -3.0 +8.7 2015/2014 -0.6 -3.1 -0.4 -3.6 +13.7 +15.9 +1.9

2015/2011 +5.2 +5.7 +0.1 +5.0 +21.1 +5.0 +19.4

18 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Home (UK) book sales 2.4 UK physical book market size

The value of the physical book market in the UK in 2015, at end purchase price, is estimated at £2,957m. This was 2% higher than in 2014, but down 5% compared to 2011. In 2015, the UK market for physical non-fiction/reference books grew by 7%, with the school/ELT book market up 18%. In contrast, the children’s market fell by 7%, with smaller (1–2%) decreases for fiction and academic/professional books. The value of the UK markets for non-fiction/reference, children’s and especially school books were also higher in 2015 compared to 2011, contrasting with double‑digit decreases for fiction and academic/professional (Table 2.4).

Table 2.4 Non‑fiction/ Academic/ UK physical book market: TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School/ ELT professional by category £m £m £m £m £m £m (value at end purchase price) 2011 3,121 668 1,092 435 242 684 2012 3,126 667 1,061 456 254 688 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 3,040 562 1,113 452 247 666 2014 2,893 528 1,039 488 231 607 2015 2,957 521 1,116 454 273 594 % change in sales 2012/2011 +0.2 -0.1 -2.9 +5.0 +4.8 +0.6 2013/2012 -2.8 -15.7 +5.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.3 2014/2013 -4.8 -6.1 -6.7 +8.0 -6.4 -8.9 2015/2014 +2.2 -1.3 +7.4 -7.0 +18.0 -2.1

2015/2011 -5.3 -21.9 +2.1 +4.4 +12.4 -13.2

Non-fiction/reference has been the largest UK market for physical books in each of the last five years, and has seen its share rise from 35% to 38% of the total between 2011 and 2015. Fiction’s share has fallen from 21% to 18% over the five years, with academic/professional dropping from 22% to 20%. The children’s and school/ELT shares have risen slightly over the period to 15% and 9% respectively of the total (Figure 2.4).

Figure 2.4 UK physical book 100% market: category shares 90% 20 (of value at end purchase price) 22 22 22 21 80% Academic/professional 8 8 8 8 9 70% 14 15 15 17 15 School/ELT 60%

50% Children’s 40% 35 34 37 36 38 30% Non‑fiction/reference 20%

Fiction 10% 21 21 18 18 18

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

Home (UK) book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 19 2.5 Publisher home sales of digital books 4

In 2015, the invoiced value of UK publisher sales of digital books to the home market in the consumer categories decreased by 13% to £183m, with sales of digital children’s books down by a third to £10m, and double-digit decreases for fiction and non-fiction/reference. The value of UK sales of children’s and non-fiction/reference were also 13–14% lower in 2015 than in 2013. In contrast, digital sales of school, ELT and academic/professional books in the UK saw double-digit increases in 2015, with school sales up by a quarter, academic/professional by a half and ELT doubling compared to 2013 5 (Table 2.5).

Table 2.5 Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher home sales of TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional digital books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 299 147 36 12 10 1 93 2014 338 159 36 16 11 1 116 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2015 335 142 31 10 13 2 137 % change in sales 2014/2013 +13.0 +8.2 -1.1 +32.0 +8.2 +15.0 +24.3 2015/2014 -0.8 -10.5 -13.3 -33.8 +17.0 +92.0 +18.4

2015/2013 +12.1 -3.2 -14.3 -12.7 +26.6 +120.8 +47.2

Fiction remained the largest category for digital revenue in the UK in 2015, despite seeing its share of total digital home sales drop from 49% to 42% since 2013. The share of digital home sales value taken by non-fiction/reference also fell over the period, from 12% to 9%, while the academic/professional sector increased its share from 31% to 41% (Figure 2.5).

Figure 2.5 Digital home book sales: category 100% shares (of net invoiced value) 90% 31 34 80% 41 Academic/professional 70% 3 4 3 ELT 60% 5 12 4 11 3 50% 9 School 40%

30% Children’s 49 47 20% 42

Non‑fiction/reference 10%

0% Fiction 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

4 See Technical Appendix for details of definitions and coverage of digital sales. 5 NB. Figures for home sales of digital school books as measured by the PASM scheme (and used to determine the figures in this section – see Appendix A) may differ from those measured by The PA’s Educational Publishers Council (as detailed in Appendix C) in terms of absolute numbers and growth rates. This reflects differences in companies participating in each scheme and, in particular, in the way that participants split their sales into physical versus digital (much school output consists of blended physical and digital elements, which are not always easily or consistently categorised by format).

20 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Home (UK) book sales 3 Export book sales

Sector review by Ben Wright, group international sales director, Hachette UK

he powerhouse of UK publishing’s exports business, accounting for about two- T thirds of £1.421m of revenues, remain the educational sectors (ELT, textbooks and tertiary publishing), in spite of recent declines. But, given the challenging macro-economic backdrop to trading over the last 12 months, it is encouraging to see sales of most trade publishing categories holding up strongly. The decline in children’s may be accounted for by the fact that two book-based popular entertainment franchises, Suzanne Collins’ Hunger Games and John Green (The Fault In Our Stars, Paper Towns), have now ridden ªª 3% to £1,421m the crests of their respective waves. Total exports of books Fiction sales remain strong, and in this category we have seen the momentum of recent ªª 3% to £1,202m years sustained by international bestsellers such as Harper Lee’s Go Set a Watchman and Total exports of physical Paula Hawkins’ The Girl on the Train. books The strongest growth in 2015 was in the trade non-fiction category. This trend is likely to ªª 3% to £218m be linked to a geographical shift of growth from the old world (Europe, Australia and North Total exports of digital America) to the new (East Asia and most noticeably the Middle East), and a boost from books colouring books, the year’s largest global publishing phenomenon.

©© 6% to £240m Retail and distribution opportunities are increasing in Asian and Middle Eastern markets, Exports of non‑fiction/ tied up (as growth so often seems to be) with the rise of bookselling on the internet. reference books In markets where the “one-stop” solution of Amazon is less prominent or not localised, retailers with loyal customers, working hand in hand with distributors who understand ©© 3% to £129m point‑to‑point logistics, are offering increasingly attractive “white label” services. And in Exports of school books China, diversification in the market continues apace, with the emergence of smaller regional school/educational wholesalers, the expansion of time or quantity-limited deals, ©© 3% to £209m and ecommerce via social media taking hold alongside traditional retail sites. Exports of physical books to East and South Asia Our future remains bright. The adoption of English across the world will continue. Our customers will find innovative routes to market in the face of a complex and ©© 7% to £189m fragmented supply chain and the ongoing fragility of the global economy. The best Exports of physical books bookstores grow and prosper: at least one large UK retailer, WHSmith, is growing its brand to Middle East and beyond our shores, with ambitious plans and a willingness to adapt its business model to North Africa suit local market requirements and conditions.

Export book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 21 Importantly, UK publishers will continue to recognise that their biggest audiences for the right books may be beyond their own borders, as summed up succinctly by Quercus managing director Jon Butler when commenting to The Bookseller on his biggest success of 2015: “[Quercus sold] 100,000 hardbacks of The Girl in the Spider’s Web in the UK, but … four times as many copies of our edition elsewhere in the world. That hints at a huge opportunity for any publisher that is willing to look up from the UK retail landscape, and treat it as just one part of an internationally buoyant book market.”

For exchange rate comparison, refer to Appendix B.

22 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Export book sales 3.1 Publisher export sales of books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of books for export fell 3% in 2015, to £1,421m, with a similar drop for both physical and digital sales.6 Compared to 2013, a 6% rise in digital sales to overseas markets did not make up for a 5% decrease in physical export sales (Table 3.1a).

Table 3.1a TOTAL Physical Digital Publisher export sales of books: £m £m £m physical and digital 2013 1,474 1,267 207 (net invoiced value) 2014 1,466 1,242 225 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2015 1,421 1,202 218 % change in sales 2014/2013 -0.5 -2.0 +8.6 2015/2014 -3.1 -3.2 -2.8

2015/2013 -3.6 -5.1 +5.5

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, audio downloads, online subscriptions and other digital book sales) accounted for 15% of the total invoiced value of sales of exported books in 2015, up only marginally since 2013 (Figure 3.1a).

Figure 3.1a Export books: physical and digital 100% shares (of net invoiced value) 14 15 15 90%

80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 86 85 85 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015

6 The digital sales recorded in this Yearbook represent the traditional publishing sector, and will not reflect sales of self‑published titles, Amazon editions and from new digital‑only media companies (see Technical Appendix). Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Export book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 23 The drop in the invoiced value of UK publisher export sales (physical plus digital) in 2015 was driven by a double-digit decrease in revenue from exports of children’s books, and single‑digit decreases for ELT and academic/professional books. In contrast, the invoiced value of non-fiction/reference exports grew by 6%, with smaller increases for fiction and school books. Since 2013, school export revenue grew 10%, with smaller rises for non-fiction/reference and children’s, but decreases for fiction, ELT and academic/professional (Table 3.1b).

Table 3.1b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher export sales of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional and digital books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 1,474 178 237 83 118 268 590

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 1,466 169 226 108 126 258 579 2015 1,421 170 240 87 129 250 545 % change in sales 2014/2013 -0.5 -5.1 -4.6 +29.3 +6.8 -3.8 -1.8 2015/2014 -3.1 +0.6 +5.9 -19.2 +2.6 -3.1 -6.0

2015/2013 -3.6 -4.5 +1.1 +4.4 +9.6 -6.8 -7.7

Academic/professional was the largest category for exports of combined physical and digital sales by value in 2015, despite seeing its share of overseas sales drop from 40% to 38% since 2013. ELT, fiction and children’s maintained 18%, 12% and 6% shares of exports over the three years, while non-fiction/reference and school books made small gains (Figure 3.1b).

Figure 3.1b Physical and digital export 100% book sales: category shares 15 90% (of net invoiced value) 80% 40 40 38 Academic/professional 70%

ELT 60% 18 50% 18 18 School 85 40% 8 9 9 30% 6 6 Children’s 7

20% 16 15 17

Non‑fiction/reference 10% 12 11 12 0% Fiction 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

24 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Export book sales 3.2 Publisher export sales of physical books, by category

2015 saw increases in the invoiced value of physical exports of non-fiction/reference (+6%) and school books (+2%), outweighed by decreases for fiction, ELT, academic/professional and especially children’s books. Between 2011 and 2015, there was a double‑digit increase in the value of physical exports of school books, but double‑digit decreases for academic/professional and fiction. Exports of children’s and ELT books also fell slightly over the five years, while non-fiction/reference saw a little growth (Table 3.2a).

Table 3.2a Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher export sales of TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional physical books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 1,286 146 216 84 108 241 490 2012 1,317 161 221 77 106 275 479 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 1,267 125 219 79 117 260 467 2014 1,242 117 208 102 124 248 443 2015 1,202 116 221 82 126 237 420 % change in sales 2012/2011 +2.4 +10.5 +1.9 -8.7 -2.6 +13.8 -2.3 2013/2012 -3.8 -22.6 -0.9 +3.1 +11.2 -5.2 -2.5 2014/2013 -2.0 -6.4 -4.6 +28.3 +5.7 -4.7 -5.2 2015/2014 -3.2 -0.9 +6.2 -19.2 +1.7 -4.4 -5.2

2015/2011 -6.5 -20.7 +2.3 -2.4 +16.5 -1.7 -14.4

Non-fiction/reference book exports grew 7% in terms of physical unit sales in 2015, contrasting with single‑digit decreases for fiction, school books and ELT, and double‑digit decreases for children’s and academic/professional books. Unit sales of physical school books, fiction and academic/professional saw the most rapid decrease between 2011 and 2015, with ELT and children’s sales also down. Non-fiction/reference was the only sector showing export unit growth over the five years (Table 3.2b).

Table 3.2b Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher export sales of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional books: by category (net units) m m m m m m m

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 292.2 49.7 57.0 47.2 36.2 70.4 31.7 2012 296.2 54.8 60.4 46.1 24.0 80.8 30.1 2013 280.9 41.1 57.6 46.2 29.9 76.8 29.4 2014 269.5 38.2 54.4 56.8 25.5 67.7 27.0 2015 254.0 37.8 58.0 45.7 24.4 63.9 24.2 % change in sales 2012/2011 +1.4 +10.3 +5.9 -2.4 -33.7 +14.8 -5.0 2013/2012 -5.2 -25.0 -4.6 +0.1 +24.3 -4.9 -2.4 2014/2013 -4.1 -7.0 -5.7 +23.0 -14.4 -11.9 -8.1 2015/2014 -5.8 -1.0 +6.7 -19.4 -4.7 -5.5 -10.3

2015/2011 -13.1 -23.8 +1.7 -3.1 -32.8 -9.1 -23.6

Export book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 25 Between 2011 and 2015 the share of physical export unit sales taken by children’s and non-fiction/ reference titles rose from 16% and 20% to 18% and 23% respectively. School books gained share in value, but lost share of volume over the same period. Fiction and academic/professional books lost share by both measures, but academic/professional remained the largest category in terms of export revenues. ELT remained the largest export category by volume, and gained share slightly over the five years (Figure 3.2).

Figure 3.2 Physical book exports: 100% category shares (of net sales) 11 10 10 10 10 90% 36 35 80% 38 36 37 24 25 25 Academic/professional 27 27 70%

ELT 60% 12 8 9 10 20 11 19 21 21 20 50% 16 18 School 16 16 21 40% 8 8 9 10 10 30% 7 6 6 8 7 Children’s 20 20 21 20 23 20% 17 17 17 17 18

Non‑fiction/reference 10% 18 17 15 14 15 11 12 10 9 10 0% Fiction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

3.3 Average invoiced price of physical book exports, by category

The average invoiced price of physical book exports rose by 3% in 2015 over 2014, reflecting 6–7% price rises in school and academic/professional books and marginal increases in prices for all bar non-fiction/reference. Book prices for school books also grew fastest between 2011 and 2015, ahead of those for academic/professional and ELT. The three consumer categories also saw small price rises over the five years, with export prices up by 8% overall over the period (Table 3.3).

Table 3.3 Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Average invoiced price of physical TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional book exports: by category £ £ £ £ £ £ £

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 4.40 2.94 3.80 1.78 2.99 3.43 15.48 2012 4.45 2.94 3.65 1.67 4.39 3.40 15.91 2013 4.51 3.04 3.79 1.72 3.93 3.39 15.91 2014 4.61 3.05 3.83 1.79 4.86 3.67 16.41 2015 4.73 3.06 3.82 1.80 5.18 3.71 17.35 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +1.1 +0.2 -3.8 -6.5 +47.0 -0.8 +2.8 2013/2012 +1.4 +3.2 +3.9 +3.0 -10.5 -0.3 +0.0 2014/2013 +2.1 +0.6 +1.1 +4.3 +23.5 +8.2 +3.2 2015/2014 +2.7 +0.1 -0.4 +0.3 +6.7 +1.2 +5.7

2015/2011 +7.5 +4.1 +0.6 +0.8 +73.4 +8.2 +12.1

26 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Export book sales 3.4 Export sales of physical books, by region

The 3% decrease in the invoiced value of physical book exports in 2015 reflected a drop in revenue from sales to Europe, Africa Sub-Sahara, Australasia and North America. In contrast, there were increases in sales to the Middle East/North Africa, East/South Asia and Other Americas regions. The Other Americas region saw the fastest growth in export value between 2011 and 2015 (+15%), ahead of East/South Asia and the Middle East/North Africa. Exports to Africa Sub-Sahara fell fastest over the five years, with double‑digit decreases as well in sales to Europe, Australasia and North America (Table 3.4).

Table 3.4 Export sales of physical Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other books: by region TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 1,286 488 171 107 184 128 144 61 3 2012 1,317 513 166 93 190 140 147 64 4 2013 1,267 490 178 88 195 117 133 62 4 2014 1,242 460 176 79 203 118 139 63 4 2015 1,202 439 189 74 209 103 114 70 5 % change in sales 2012/2011 +2.4 +5.1 -3.1 -13.3 +3.4 +9.7 +1.9 +6.3 +25.4 2013/2012 -3.8 -4.4 +7.3 -5.2 +2.4 -16.3 -9.5 -3.7 +0.2 2014/2013 -2.0 -6.1 -1.4 -10.5 +3.9 +0.5 +4.4 +1.9 +16.8 2015/2014 -3.2 -4.7 +7.4 -5.4 +3.1 -12.6 -17.9 +10.1 +19.2

2015/2011 -6.5 -10.1 +10.1 -30.4 +13.4 -19.4 -20.9 +14.8 +75.0

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding

Europe accounted for 36% of the invoiced value of exports in 2015, down from 39% in 2012–13. The Middle East/North Africa region saw its share of exports increase from 13% to 16% between 2011 and 2015, with East/South Asia up from 14% to 17% and the Other Americas up to 6%. Australasia and North America saw slight share decreases over the same period, while Africa Sub‑Sahara’s share fell from 8% to 6% (Figure 3.4).

Figure 3.4 Exported physical books: regional 100% 5 5 5 shares (of net invoiced value) 5 6 90% 11 11 11 11 10 Unspecified 80% 9 10 11 9 9 Other Americas 70% 15 14 14 16 17 North America 60% 7 8 7 6 6 Australasia 50% 13 13 14 14 16 East & South Asia 40%

30% Africa Sub‑Sahara

20% 38 39 39 37 36 Mid East/N Africa 10%

Europe 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

Export book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 27 3.5 Publisher export sales of digital books 7

In 2015, the invoiced value of UK publishers’ digital sales to overseas markets in the consumer categories increased by 2% to £77m, with digital fiction and non-fiction/reference sales outside the UK up 4% and 2% respectively. Sales of digital children’s books outside the UK fell in 2015 over 2014, but were 17% higher than in 2013. Digital sales of school books outside the UK grew fourfold over the three years (to £3m), with ELT sales up by two‑thirds to £13m. Digital exports of academic/ professional titles fell to £125m in 2015, though this remained just ahead of 2013 (Table 3.5).

Table 3.5 Non‑fiction/ Academic/ Publisher export sales of TOTAL Fiction reference Children’s School ELT professional digital books: by category £m £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 207 53 19 4 * 8 122 2014 225 52 18 6 2 10 137 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding * = < £0.5m 2015 218 54 18 5 3 13 125 % change in sales 2014/2013 +8.6 -1.8 -3.8 +47.9 +199.2 +26.5 +11.4 2015/2014 -2.8 +4.1 +2.4 -20.6 +56.8 +28.9 -8.6

2015/2013 +5.5 +2.2 -1.5 +17.4 +369.0 +63.1 +1.8

The academic/professional sector remained the largest category for digital exports in 2015, though its share was lower (at 57%) than in 2013 and 2014. The share of digital export revenue taken by fiction remained at 25% over the three years, with the non-fiction/reference share down slightly to 8%. The ELT share rose from 4% to 6% over the period (Figure 3.5).

Figure 3.5 Digital export book sales: category 100% shares (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% Academic/professional 70% 59 61 57

ELT 60%

50% School 40% 6 4 5 2 2 3 30% 9 8 Children’s 8 20% 25 25 Non‑fiction/reference 10% 23

0% Fiction 2013 2014 2015

NB: Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

7 See Technical Appendix for details of definitions and coverage of digital sales.

28 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Export book sales 4 Fiction book sales

Sector review by Kate Elton, executive publisher, HarperFiction and NonFiction, HarperCollins

The PA Statistics Yearbook shows 2015 as a key point where the major fiction market trends of the last few years appear to reverse. There was a decline in the fiction market, of 2% – but this time, unlike in 2013 and 2014, the fall reflected a decline in publishers’ sales of ebooks, not physical books. Physical sales of both hardback and paperback fiction grew by value, with only hardback volume sales showing a decline. Ebook value sales – having grown by 14% in 2013 and a further 6% in 2014 – fell by 7% in 2015. Ebooks still ªª 2% to £563m accounted for more than a third of the value of the fiction market at £196m, and there were Total physical and digital reports that sales of self-published titles (not recorded here) rose during the year. Despite book sales suggestions of a revival in physical book sales, the hardback and paperback fiction market is down by a quarter in the past five years. ©© 1% to £367m Total physical book sales Of course 2015 did see some landmark publications. Paula Hawkins’ The Girl on the Train – the Sunday Times number one hardback bestseller for 26 weeks in 2015 – sold over ªª7% to £196m 546,000 hardbacks in the UK; Harper Lee’s Go Set A Watchman over 360,000 copies; and Total digital book sales Grey by EL James well over 1 million paperbacks. Major publications such as these give a significant boost to overall sales, and the fact that they fall into quite separate areas of the ©© 2% to £251m fiction market probably reduces cannibalisation across the three, allowing all to thrive within Home physical book different consumer segments. sales Looking across the brand authors, there were both winners and losers in the Nielsen ªª 11% to £142m BookScan Total Consumer Market (TCM). Many will have missed out on their expected Home digital book sales number one positions as a result of the dominance of The Girl on the Train. But an interesting pattern emerges when we look at debut successes, which were a positive ªª 1% to £116m feature of the year. Two of the top five hardbacks (The Girl on the Train and Username: Evie) Export physical book as well as two of the top five paperbacks (Elizabeth Is Missing and The Miniaturist) were sales debut novels – more than in either 2014 or 2013 – and the volumes sold by the top five hardback and paperback debuts in 2015 showed significant growth. ©© 4% to £54m Export digital book sales It seems that readers are ready and eager to discover new voices – and factors such as the rise of social media as a forum for advocacy, a consumer eagerness to be part of the “pioneer” or “leader” group setting the cultural agenda, and a newly invigorated Waterstones have all played their part. But it is worth bearing in mind, as a note of caution, that none of the top five paperback debuts in 2014 and 2015 made it to that level without the help of a Richard and Judy book club selection, a major prize, or an existing promotional platform.

Fiction book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 29 Enthusiasm for discovering new and breakthrough voices feels like a pattern that will continue, particularly as it is also apparent in the adult non-fiction market. Readers seem to be more format-agnostic than ever before – “waiting for the paperback” is outweighed by the desire to be part of the immediate cultural conversation. And 2015 was a year in which books were every bit as significant in setting the cultural agenda as the other media with which publishers compete – which has to be a healthy position as 2016 progresses.

30 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Fiction book sales 4.1 Publisher sales of fiction books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of fiction books fell by 2% in 2015, to £563m. This decrease came despite a 1% rise in physical sales revenue in this sector, and reflected a 7% decrease in the invoiced value of digital fiction sales, to £196m.8 Between 2011 and 2015, the value of fiction sales rose marginally overall, with a 179% increase in digital sales making up for a 25% decrease for physical sales (Table 4.1a).

Table 4.1a TOTAL Physical Digital Publisher sales of fiction £m £m £m books: physical and digital 2011 562 492 70 (net invoiced value) 2012 680 505 175 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 599 400 200 2014 574 364 211 2015 563 367 196 % change in sales 2012/2011 +20.9 +2.6 +148.9 2013/2012 -11.8 -20.8 +14.2 2014/2013 -4.1 -9.0 +5.5 2015/2014 -2.0 +0.8 -6.9

2015/2011 +0.2 -25.4 +179.3

Digital formats (encompassing both ebooks and audiobook downloads) accounted for 35% of the total invoiced value of fiction sales in 2015, down from 37% in 2014, but ahead of 2013 (Figure 4.1a).

Figure 4.1a Fiction books: physical and digital 100% shares (of net invoiced value) 12 90% 26 33 35 80% 37 Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 88 40% 74 67 65 30% 63

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8 The digital sales recorded in this Yearbook represent the traditional publishing sector, and will not reflect sales of self‑published titles, Amazon editions and from new digital‑only media companies (see Technical Appendix). Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Fiction book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 31 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of physical fiction books to the home market rose by 2% in 2015, but an 11% fall in the value of digital fiction sales to UK customers meant that home sales of fiction fell by 3% overall. Export sales of fiction rose by 1% overall, with a 4% increase for digital outweighing a 1% decrease for physical (Table 4.1b).

Table 4.1b – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and export TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital fiction books: physical and digital £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 422 275 147 178 125 53 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 406 247 159 169 117 52 2015 393 251 142 170 116 54 % change in sales 2014/2013 -3.7 -10.1 +8.2 -5.1 -6.4 -1.8 2015/2014 -3.1 +1.6 -10.5 +0.6 -0.9 +4.1

2015/2013 -6.7 -8.6 -3.2 -4.5 -7.3 +2.2

Digital sales accounted for 36% of revenue from fiction sales in the UK market in 2015, down from 39% in 2014, but just ahead of 2013. The digital share of fiction exports rose from 30% to 32% over the three years (Figure 4.1b).

Figure 4.1b Home and exported fiction books: 100% physical and digital shares 90% (of net invoiced value) 30 35 31 32 80% 39 36

Digital sales 70%

60% Physical sales 50%

40% 70 65 69 68 30% 61 64

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

32 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Fiction book sales 4.2 Publisher sales of physical fiction books

The 1% increase in the invoiced value of physical fiction sales in 2015 was accompanied by a 3% rise in unit sales, in each case driven by growth for home sales, by 2% and 5% respectively. Export sales of physical fiction books fell 1% by both measures. Between 2011 and 2015, home sales of physical fiction fell by over a quarter in both invoiced value and volume, with fiction exports down by over a fifth (Table 4.2a).

Table 4.2a – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical fiction Total Physical Physical Total Physical Physical books: home and export physical home export physical home export

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding £m £m £m m units m units m units 2011 492 346 146 166.0 116.4 49.7 2012 505 344 161 167.2 112.4 54.8 2013 400 275 125 129.3 88.2 41.1 2014 364 247 117 114.4 76.2 38.2 2015 367 251 116 117.7 80.0 37.8 % change in sales 2012/2011 +2.6 -0.7 +10.5 +0.7 -3.4 +10.3 2013/2012 -20.8 -20.0 -22.6 -22.7 -21.6 -25.0 2014/2013 -9.0 -10.1 -6.4 -11.5 -13.6 -7.0 2015/2014 +0.8 +1.6 -0.9 +2.9 +4.9 -1.0

2015/2011 -25.4 -27.4 -20.7 -29.1 -31.3 -23.8

Exports have accounted for a third of physical book sales in the fiction sector in both invoiced value and units in each year from 2012 to 2015, up from 30% in each case in 2011 (Figure 4.2a).

Figure 4.2a Physical fiction books: home and 100% export shares (of net sales) 90% 30 32 31 32 32 30 33 32 33 32 80% Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50%

40% 70 68 69 68 68 70 67 68 67 68 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

Fiction book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 33 The rise in the invoiced value of sales in the physical fiction market in 2015 reflected a 1% increase for both paperbacks and hardbacks, although paperbacks alone drove the growth in physical fiction units, whereas hardback fiction units fell by 3%. Between 2011 and 2015, both value and unit sales of fiction paperbacks and hardbacks fell by around a quarter (Table 4.2b).

Table 4.2b – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical fiction Total physical Paperback Hardback Total physical Paperback Hardback books: by format £m £m £m m units m units m units

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 492 386 106 166.0 145.5 20.5 2012 505 406 99 167.2 148.6 18.6 2013 400 306 93 129.3 111.4 17.9 2014 364 285 79 114.4 98.8 15.6 2015 367 287 80 117.7 102.6 15.1 % change in sales 2012/2011 +2.6 +5.1 -6.5 +0.7 +2.1 -9.1 2013/2012 -20.8 -24.5 -5.6 -22.7 -25.0 -3.8 2014/2013 -9.0 -7.1 -15.1 -11.5 -11.2 -13.3 2015/2014 +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +2.9 +3.9 -3.0

2015/2011 -25.4 -25.7 -24.3 -29.1 -29.4 -26.5

Hardbacks maintained a 22% value and 14% unit share of physical fiction sales in 2015 versus 2014, up slightly from 21% and 12% in 2011 (Figures 4.2b and 4.2c).

Figure 4.2b Physical fiction books: format shares 100% (of net invoiced value) 90% 21 20 23 22 22

80% Hardback 70%

Paperback 60%

50%

40% 79 80 77 78 78 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

34 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Fiction book sales Figure 4.2c Physical fiction books: format shares 100% (of net units) 12 11 14 14 14 90%

80% Hardback 70%

Paperback 60%

50% 88 89 86 86 87 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

4.3 Average invoiced price of physical fiction books

The average invoiced price for physical fiction books fell 2% to £3.11 in 2015, with the invoiced price for home sales down 3% to £3.14, and the price of paperbacks decreasing by 3% to £2.79. In contrast, the invoiced price of physical fiction exports rose marginally in 2015, and hardback prices were up 4% to £5.29. Between 2011 and 2015, home and export prices for physical fiction have risen by 6% and 4% respectively, with paperback prices increasing by 5%, and hardback prices up 3% (Table 4.3).

Table 4.3 TOTAL Home Export Paperback Hardback Average invoiced price of £ £ £ £ £ physical fiction books 2011 2.96 2.97 2.94 2.65 5.14

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 3.02 3.06 2.94 2.73 5.29 2013 3.09 3.12 3.04 2.75 5.19 2014 3.18 3.24 3.05 2.88 5.09 2015 3.11 3.14 3.06 2.79 5.29 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +1.9 +2.8 +0.2 +3.0 +2.9 2013/2012 +2.4 +2.0 +3.2 +0.7 -1.8 2014/2013 +2.9 +4.1 +0.6 +4.7 -2.0 2015/2014 -2.0 -3.1 +0.1 -2.9 +4.0

2015/2011 +5.2 +5.7 +4.1 +5.3 +3.0

Fiction book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 35 4.4 Export sales of physical fiction books, by region

The small drop in the value of exports of physical fiction books in 2015 was driven by decreases in sales to Australasia, North America and Africa Sub-Sahara. Australasia, Africa Sub-Sahara and Europe saw double‑digit decreases in fiction sales between 2011 and 2015, with sales to North America also down over the five years. In contrast, the Middle East/North Africa and East/South Asia regions saw fiction sales value increasing over the five years, and in 2015 itself (Table 4.4).

Table 4.4 Export sales of physical Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other fiction books: by region TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 146 55 3 10 13 49 15 1 * 2012 161 54 3 9 13 62 18 1 * 2013 125 48 3 7 14 39 13 1 1 2014 117 44 4 6 13 34 14 1 1 2015 116 44 5 5 13 33 13 1 1 % change in sales 2012/2011 +10.5 -2.4 -1.1 -6.7 +3.6 +26.1 +25.4 +7.7 +48.4 2013/2012 -22.6 -11.6 +4.9 -22.5 +1.0 -36.6 -31.2 +3.7 +32.0 2014/2013 -6.4 -7.2 +23.2 -6.6 -7.3 -13.5 +9.3 +15.3 +20.0 2015/2014 -0.9 -0.8 +31.0 -16.1 +7.8 -3.5 -3.3 -33.1 +32.0

2015/2011 -20.7 -20.5 +67.5 -43.3 +4.6 -33.3 -8.8 -13.9 +210.1

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding * = < £0.5m

Europe maintained its place as the largest destination for exports of physical fiction books in 2015, with Australasia in second place, despite seeing its share drop from 34% to 28% between 2011 and 2015. North America, East & South Asia and Middle East/North Africa gained share of fiction export sales over the five years (Figure 4.4).

Figure 4.4 Exported physical fiction books: 100% 1 1 1 1 1 regional shares (of net invoiced value) 10 11 10 12 12 90% Unspecified 80%

Other Americas 34 32 29 28 70% 39

N America 60%

11 12 Australasia 50% 9 11 8 7 6 6 5 40% 4 East & South Asia 2 6 2 3 2 30% Africa Sub‑Sahara 20% 38 38 38 38 33 Mid East / N Africa 10%

Europe 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

36 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Fiction book sales 5 Non ‑fiction and reference book sales

Sector review by Daniel Crewe, publisher, Viking

or non-fiction, you could call 2015 a turn‑up for the books. Sales in the sector had F been roughly level for four years until a 9% decline in 2014, but bounced back in 2015 with an 8% rise – the first significant increase for many years, and a figure that exceeded overall growth in all other categories. It meant a 1% overall rise since 2011.

Home sales of physical books rose 11% by value and volume (against 3% for the whole market), and export sales rose by 6% by value and 7% by volume (against -3%); export ©© 8% to £808m sales increased marginally as a proportion of value and volume. Across home and export, Total physical and digital the decline in reference books slowed, to only -1% by value, while general books were book sales up 15% by value in hardback, and 9% by value in paperback. General hardback prices fell by 3% for the second year in a row, but non-fiction prices overall have been roughly stable ©© 9% to £759m for the past five years. Digital sales, which are only 6% of total non-fiction sales, fell 8% by Total physical book sales value (though they were slightly up in export markets).

ªª 8% to £50m What’s the story? Looking at categories in the Nielsen BookScan Total Consumer Market, Total digital book sales biographies and memoirs continued their decline (despite trend-breakers including Henry Marsh and Chris Hadfield), though there were eight books selling more ©© 11% to £537m than 100,000 copies by new kids on the vlog. Mind, body and spirit, popular science and Home physical book natural history all continued to rise, and health, dieting and wholefood, and even more sales so handicrafts, arts and crafts, shot up: six of the top seven paperbacks were colouring books. Humour grew by £7.5m, with the Ladybird adult spoofs worth £7.4m. Perhaps this ªª 13% to £31m year we will see How It Works: Publishing. Home digital book sales The 19 non-fiction hardbacks that sold more than 100,000 copies – the highest number ©© 6% to £221m since 2011 – included books by Bill Bryson, Guy Martin, Steven Gerrard and Export physical book Alex Ferguson. Private Eye and a much-discussed Guardian column pointed to a crisis for sales “the upper‑middle‑brow reader”, but Norwegian Wood by Lars Mytting and A Shepherd’s Life by James Rebanks both sold over 75,000 copies, and paperbacks by Owen Jones, ©© 2% to £18m Helen Macdonald and Yuval Harari sold 179,000, 145,000 and almost 100,000 Export digital book sales respectively. However “crisis” is interpreted, good publishing can create a good market.

How can we do this? We need to carry on working with the revitalised Waterstones and independents, expanding in export, and finding new talent in new areas; and we need to understand video, understand price-point “tolerance”, and, using Facebook and Google, capture the attention of young people as well as remembering the older demographic. At the heart of all this, as well as intuition, we need to use data, but as masters, not slaves. That way, a healthy future is in our own hands.

Non‑fiction and reference book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 37 38 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Non‑fiction and reference book sales 5.1 Publisher sales of non‑fiction/reference books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of non-fiction/reference books rose by 8% in 2015, to £808m. This increase came from physical sales, which saw revenues up 9% to £759m, whereas digital sales of non-fiction/reference fell 8% to £50m.9 The invoiced value of non-fiction/reference sales was also 1% higher in 2015 than in 2011, with digital sales more than doubling over the five years, and outweighing a 3% decrease for physical sales (Table 5.1a).

Table 5.1a TOTAL Physical Digital Publisher sales of non‑fiction/ £m £m £m reference books: physical and 2011 803 783 21 digital (net invoiced value) 2012 807 767 40 * = < £0.5m 2013 818 763 55 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 748 694 54 2015 808 759 50 % change in sales 2012/2011 +0.5 -2.0 +95.4 2013/2012 +1.3 -0.5 +36.2 2014/2013 -8.5 -9.0 -2.0 2015/2014 +8.1 +9.3 -8.1

2015/2011 +0.6 -3.0 +139.7

Digital formats (encompassing both ebooks and audiobook downloads) accounted for 6% of the total invoiced value of non-fiction/reference sales in 2015, slightly down on 2013-14, but up from 3% in 2011 (Figure 5.1a).

Figure 5.1a Non‑fiction/reference books: 100% 3 5 7 7 6 physical and digital shares 90% (of net invoiced value) 80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 97 95 93 93 94 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

9 The digital sales recorded in this Yearbook represent the traditional publishing sector, and will not reflect sales of self‑published titles, Amazon editions and from new digital‑only media companies (see Technical Appendix). Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Non‑fiction and reference book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 39 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of physical non-fiction/reference books in the home market rose by 11% in 2015, reversing the decrease seen in 2014, and driving a 9% rise in the value of non‑fiction/reference sales in the UK overall. Digital sales to UK customers in this category fell 13% in 2015, and were 14% lower than in 2013. Export sales of non-fiction/reference books grew by 6% overall and for physical formats in 2015, with digital sales to overseas markets up 2% over 2014 (Table 5.1b).

Table 5.1b – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital export non‑fiction/reference £m £m £m £m £m £m books: physical and digital 2013 580 544 36 237 219 19 (net invoiced value) 2014 522 486 36 226 208 18 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2015 569 537 31 240 221 18 % change in sales 2014/2013 -10.1 -10.7 -1.1 -4.6 -4.6 -3.8 2015/2014 +9.0 +10.7 -13.3 +5.9 +6.2 +2.4

2015/2013 -2.0 -1.2 -14.3 +1.1 +1.3 -1.5

Digital sales accounted for 5% of revenue from non-fiction/reference sales in the UK market in 2015, slightly lower than in 2013 and 2014. The digital share of non-fiction/reference exports stayed level at 8% over the same period (Figure 5.1b).

Figure 5.1b Home and exported non‑fiction/ 100% 6 7 5 8 8 8 reference books: physical and digital 90% shares (of net invoiced value) 80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 94 93 95 92 92 92 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

40 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Non‑fiction and reference book sales 5.2 Publisher sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books

The 9% increase in the value of physical non-fiction/reference book sales in 2015 was matched by a similar rise in physical unit sales. Home sales grew at a faster rate (11%) than exports (6 – 7%) for both measures, in each case reversing decreases seen in 2014. The volume and value of sales of physical non-fiction/reference exports were still 3% lower in 2015 compared to 2011, driven by a 5% drop in sales to the home market, and despite a 2% increase in sales outside the UK over the period (Table 5.2a).

Table 5.2a – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical Total Physical Physical Total Physical Physical non‑fiction/reference books: physical home export physical home export home and export £m £m £m m units m units m units

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 783 566 216 191.1 134.1 57.0 2012 767 546 221 191.4 131.0 60.4 2013 763 544 219 185.0 127.4 57.6 2014 694 486 208 168.8 114.5 54.4 2015 759 537 221 185.2 127.2 58.0 % change in sales 2012/2011 -2.0 -3.5 +1.9 +0.1 -2.3 +5.9 2013/2012 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 -3.3 -2.7 -4.6 2014/2013 -9.0 -10.7 -4.6 -8.7 -10.1 -5.7 2015/2014 +9.3 +10.7 +6.2 +9.7 +11.1 +6.7

2015/2011 -3.0 -5.1 +2.3 -3.1 -5.1 +1.7

Exports marginally decreased their share of physical book sales in the non-fiction/reference sector in 2015, though have gained slightly since 2011, from 28% to 29% of invoiced value, and from 30% to 31% of unit sales (Figure 5.2a).

Figure 5.2a Physical non‑fiction/reference books: 100% home and export shares (of net sales) 90% 28 29 29 30 29 30 32 31 32 31 80% Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50%

40% 72 71 71 70 71 70 68 69 68 69 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

Non‑fiction and reference book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 41 The 9 –10% rise in invoiced value/volume sales of physical non-fiction/reference books in 2015 followed double‑digit increases in sales of general non-fiction hardbacks for both measures, and 9 –10% increases for paperbacks. Reference book sales continued to fall, and were down by over a fifth between 2011 and 2015. General hardback non-fiction sales rose 6% in volume and 2% in value over the five years, with paperback sales up by c1% over the same period (Table 5.2b).

Table 5.2b – – – – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical Total General General Total General General non‑fiction/reference books: physical paperback hardback Reference physical paperback hardback Reference by format/category £m £m £m £m m units m units m units m units 2011 783 317 300 165 191.1 96.5 53.0 41.7 2012 767 309 306 152 191.4 95.6 54.6 41.2 2013 763 310 313 140 185.0 92.1 53.8 39.1 2014 694 294 267 132 168.8 88.3 47.6 32.9 2015 759 322 307 131 185.2 96.8 56.3 32.1 % change in sales 2012/2011 -2.0 -2.7 +2.1 -8.1 +0.1 -0.9 +3.1 -1.2 2013/2012 -0.5 +0.4 +2.1 -7.9 -3.3 -3.7 -1.4 -5.1 2014/2013 -9.0 -5.0 -14.5 -5.4 -8.7 -4.1 -11.5 -15.9 2015/2014 +9.3 +9.2 +14.6 -1.3 +9.7 +9.6 +18.3 -2.5

2015/2011 -3.0 +1.4 +2.1 -21.0 -3.1 +0.4 +6.3 -23.2

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding

General hardbacks increased their share of physical non-fiction/reference sales between 2011 and 2015, from 38% to 40% in value, and from 28% to 30% in units. Paperbacks also gained a little share, with the reference book share down from 21-22% to 17% over the five years (Figures 5.2b and 5.2c).

Figure 5.2b Physical non‑fiction/reference 100% books: format/category shares 90% 20 18 19 17 (of net invoiced value) 21 80% Reference 70%

41 39 40 General hardback 60% 38 40

50% General paperback 40%

30%

20% 41 40 41 42 42

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

42 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Non‑fiction and reference book sales Figure 5.2c Physical non‑fiction/reference books: 100% format/category shares (of net units) 17 90% 22 22 21 19

80% Reference 70% 28 30 28 29 29 General hardback 60%

50% General paperback 40%

30% 50 50 50 52 52 20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

5.3 Average invoiced price of physical non‑fiction/ reference books

The average invoiced price for physical non-fiction/reference books decreased marginally to £4.10 in 2015, and was only 1p higher than in 2011. Prices for export sales in this category, and for paperbacks and reference books, all rose slightly over the five years, though only reference saw a price increase in 2015 (Table 5.3).

Table 5.3 General General Average invoiced price of physical TOTAL Home Export paperback hardback Reference non‑fiction/reference books £ £ £ £ £ £

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 4.09 4.22 3.80 3.29 5.67 3.96 2012 4.01 4.17 3.65 3.23 5.62 3.68 2013 4.12 4.27 3.79 3.36 5.82 3.57 2014 4.11 4.24 3.83 3.33 5.62 4.02 2015 4.10 4.22 3.82 3.32 5.45 4.07 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 -2.2 -1.2 -3.8 -1.9 -1.0 -7.0 2013/2012 +2.9 +2.4 +3.9 +4.3 +3.6 -2.9 2014/2013 -0.3 -0.6 +1.1 -0.9 -3.4 +12.4 2015/2014 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -3.1 +1.3

2015/2011 +0.1 +0.1 +0.6 +1.0 -4.0 +2.9

Non‑fiction and reference book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 43 5.4 Export sales of physical non‑fiction/reference books, by region

The 6% increase in the value of exports of physical non-fiction/reference books in 2015 was driven by growth in sales to Europe, Middle East/North Africa, East/South Asia and the Other Americas region. These contrasted with a drop in the value of non-fiction/reference exports to Africa Sub‑Sahara and Australasia. Between 2011 and 2015, growth in sales of physical non-fiction/reference books was fastest for Middle East/North Africa (+39%), ahead of Europe (+8%) and North America (+5%). Sales to Africa Sub-Sahara, Australasia and the Other Americas region decreased over the five years (Table 5.4).

Table 5.4 Export sales of physical Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other non‑fiction/reference books: TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified by region (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 216 82 14 16 34 40 26 3 2 2012 221 79 13 15 35 44 28 3 2 2013 219 82 13 14 35 43 27 2 2 2014 208 80 15 12 33 36 27 2 3 2015 221 88 19 11 36 35 27 3 3 % change in sales 2012/2011 +1.9 -2.8 -3.3 -2.9 +1.8 +8.4 +10.8 -0.2 +22.3 2013/2012 -0.9 +3.1 -0.7 -9.8 -0.3 -0.9 -5.7 -22.6 -1.8 2014/2013 -4.6 -1.8 +10.0 -14.7 -4.0 -17.2 +2.2 -2.5 +11.2 2015/2014 +6.2 +9.5 +31.6 -2.7 +6.7 -3.4 -1.6 +5.0 +11.7

2015/2011 +2.3 +7.8 +39.0 -27.3 +4.0 -14.0 +5.2 -20.8 +49.3

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding

Europe increased its share of exports of physical non-fiction/reference books between 2012 and 2015, from 36% to 40%, with the Middle East/North Africa share up from 6% to 9% over the same period, while Australia’s share fell from 20% to 16% (Figure 5.4).

Figure 5.4 100% Exported physical non‑fiction/ 1 1 1 1 1 reference books: regional shares (of net invoiced value) 90% 12 13 12 13 12

Unspecified 80% 19 16 20 20 17 70% Other Americas

16 60% 16 16 North America 16 16 50% 5 6 Australasia 7 6 7 9 6 7 40% 6 6 East & South Asia 30%

Africa Sub‑Sahara 20% 40 38 36 37 39

Mid East / N Africa 10%

Europe 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

44 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Non‑fiction and reference book sales 6 Children’s book sales

Sector review by Emma Hopkin, managing director, Bloomsbury Children’s

ast year was not as bad for children’s books as a 10% fall in sales would indicate. L The figures for 2015 were never likely to match those of 2014, when The Fault in Our Stars and Minecraft books were extraordinary successes. Research from the National Literacy Trust showed that the percentage of children who enjoyed reading was at the highest level for nine years.

The big authors got bigger – Julia Donaldson (once again the bestselling author in the ªª 10% to £314m UK overall), David Walliams, JK Rowling and Jeff Kinney all saw growth in value and Total physical and digital volume through Nielsen BookScan. The new media celebrity publishing trend continued, book sales with Stampy’s Lovely Book taking the biggest BookScan debut slot, closely followed by Sprinkle of Glitter Diary 2016 by vlogger Louise Pentland. Zoella’s success continued with ªª 9% to £299m her second novel, Girl Online: On Tour. It seems that vloggers and YouTubers can command Total physical book sales their online audiences to buy books – and, for now, this shows no sign of abating.

ªª 30% to £15m Traditional TV celebrities also continue to sell – David Walliams, of course, but also Total digital book sales David Baddiel, who published his second children’s novel, and Julian Clary, who published his first. Licensed properties had a successful year, with further growth for Peppa Pig and ªª 4% to £216m strong sales for titles tying in to the new Star Wars movie. Who would have predicted Home physical book that Mog, a cat Judith Kerr first introduced us to in the 1970s, would partner with a sales supermarket and Save the Children to bring us a TV advert and an own‑brand book? It is little wonder many children’s publishers are mining their adult lists for authors – and coming ªª 34% to £10m up with transmedia departments and strategies. Home digital book sales The one area that is not looking rosy is children’s digital books. Sales fell 30% in value, ªª 19% to £82m according to the Yearbook. This reflects trends in the young adult (YA) market, the segment Export physical book that generates the majority of children’s digital sales. Reports such as Understanding the sales Children’s and YA Book Consumer in the Digital Age (Nielsen) suggest that young people use their devices for gaming and social media; for reading, they still choose print. ªª 21% to £5m Export digital book sales Print books are getting more beautiful. The Fox and The Star by Coralie Bickford-Smith was the Waterstones Children’s Book of the Year; The Imaginary by AF Harrold and Emily Gravett won the overall award at the Book Design and Production awards; and in illustrated non-fiction, where new imprints Flying Eye and Wide Eyed Editions are leading the way, Shackleton’s Journey by William Grill won the Greenaway Medal. There could not have been a better time for Chris Riddell to have become Children’s Laureate, with his promise to promote illustrated books and his belief that words need pictures.

Children’s book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 45 46 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Children’s book sales 6.1 Publisher sales of children’s books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of children’s books fell by 10% in 2015, to £314m, reversing the increase recorded in 2014. The 2015 decrease was driven by both a 9% fall in physical sales (to £299m), and a 30% decrease in the value of digital sales (to £15m).10 Between 2011 and 2015, revenue from children’s was level overall, with digital sales doubling and balancing out a 3% drop in physical sales (Table 6.1a).

Table 6.1a Publisher sales of children’s TOTAL Physical Digital books: physical and digital £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 314 307 7

* = < £0.5m 2012 322 310 12 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 314 298 16 2014 349 328 22 2015 314 299 15 % change in sales 2012/2011 +2.4 +0.8 +71.4 2013/2012 -2.6 -3.8 +28.3 2014/2013 +11.3 +10.0 +36.0 2015/2014 -10.2 -8.8 -30.2

2015/2011 -0.2 -2.8 +109.0

Digital formats (encompassing both ebooks and audiobook downloads) accounted for 5% of the total invoiced value of children’s book sales in 2015, slightly lower than in 2014, but up from 2% in 2011 Figure 6.1a).

Figure 6.1a 100% Children’s books: physical and digital 2 4 5 6 5 shares (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 98 96 95 94 95 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10 The digital sales recorded in this Yearbook represent the traditional publishing sector, and will not reflect sales of self‑published titles, Amazon editions and from new digital‑only media companies (see Technical Appendix). Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Children’s book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 47 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of digital children’s books to UK customers fell by a third in 2015 and, with a 4% decrease in the value of physical children’s sales in the home market, UK sales of children’s books overall were down 6% over 2014, and 2% compared to 2013. Physical and digital sales of children’s books to overseas markets both decreased by a fifth in 2015, though remained above 2013 levels (Table 6.1b).

Table 6.1b – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and export TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital children’s books: physical and £m £m £m £m £m £m digital (net invoiced value) 2013 230 218 12 83 79 4 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 241 226 16 108 102 6 2015 227 216 10 87 82 5 % change in sales 2014/2013 +4.8 +3.4 +32.0 +29.3 +28.3 +47.4 2015/2014 -6.1 -4.2 -33.8 -19.2 -19.2 -20.6

2015/2013 -1.6 -1.0 -12.7 +4.4 +3.7 +17.4

Digital sales accounted for 5% of revenue from children’s book sales in the UK and export markets in 2015, down from 6% in 2014 (Figure 6.1b).

Figure 6.1b 100% Home and exported children’s books: 5 6 5 5 6 5 physical and digital shares 90% (of net invoiced value) 80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 95 94 95 95 94 95 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

48 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Children’s book sales 6.2 Publisher sales of physical children’s books

Unit sales of physical children’s books fell by 7% in 2015, slightly below the decrease in invoiced value. This pattern reflected a 1% volume, compared to 4% value, decrease for home sales of children’s books, whereas export sales fell by a similar 19% for both measures. However, between 2011 and 2015, sales of physical children’s books to the home market decreased more than exports, particularly in terms of volume (Tables 6.2a and 6.2b).

Table 6.2a Total Physical Physical Publisher sales of physical physical home export children’s books: home and export £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 307 223 84

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 310 233 77 2013 298 218 79 2014 328 226 102 2015 299 216 82

2012/2011 +0.8 +4.3 -8.7 2013/2012 -3.8 -6.1 +3.1 2014/2013 +10.0 +3.4 +28.3 2015/2014 -8.8 -4.2 -19.2

2015/2011 -2.8 -2.9 -2.4

Table 6.2b Total Physical Physical Publisher sales of physical physical home export children’s books: home and export m units m units m units (net units) 2011 164.3 117.1 47.2

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 165.2 119.1 46.1 2013 159.9 113.8 46.2 2014 165.7 109.0 56.8 2015 154.0 108.2 45.7

2012/2011 +0.5 +1.7 -2.4 2013/2012 -3.2 -4.5 +0.1 2014/2013 +3.6 -4.2 +23.0 2015/2014 -7.1 -0.7 -19.4

2015/2011 -6.3 -7.6 -3.1

Children’s book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 49 The export share of physical children’s book sales remained higher in 2015 than in 2011 – 13, though was lower than in 2014, at 28% of invoiced value and 30% of units (Figures 6.2a and 6.2b).

Figure 6.2a Physical children’s books: home and 100% export shares (of net invoiced value) 90% 25 27 27 31 28 80% Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50%

40% 75 73 73 69 72 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 6.2b Physical children’s books: home and 100% export shares (of net units) 90% 29 28 29 30 34 80% Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50%

40% 71 72 71 70 66 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

50 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Children’s book sales 6.3 Average invoiced price of physical children’s books

The average invoiced price for physical children’s books stood at £1.94 in 2015, 2% lower than in 2014, but 4% up on 2011. The average unit price for physical sales to the home market in this category decreased by 4% in 2015 (to £2.00), with export prices rising marginally to £1.80. Conversely, between 2011 and 2015, prices for physical children’s books sold in the UK rose more quickly than for export sales (Table 6.3).

Table 6.3 TOTAL Home Export Average invoiced price of physical £ £ £ children’s books: home and export 2011 1.87 1.90 1.78 2012 1.87 1.95 1.67 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 1.86 1.92 1.72 2014 1.98 2.07 1.79 2015 1.94 2.00 1.80 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +0.2 +2.6 -6.5 2013/2012 -0.6 -1.7 +3.0 2014/2013 +6.1 +7.9 +4.3 2015/2014 -1.9 -3.6 +0.3

2015/2011 +3.7 +5.0 +0.8

Figure 6.3 charts the changes in average invoiced prices for physical children’s books over the last five years, using an index where 2011 = 100. It illustrates that prices for home sales rose in 2014 in particular, while export prices have increased in each of the last three years, but only just returning to 2011 levels.

Figure 6.3 Index of average price of 120 physical children’s book sales: home and export 115

(2011 = 100) 110 Export sales 105 Total sales

100 Home sales 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 95 Index 2011 = 100 90

85

80

Children’s book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 51 6.4 Export sales of physical children’s books, by region

The falling value of exports of physical children’s books in 2015 was driven by double‑digit decreases in sales to Australasia and North America, reversing significant increases for these regions in 2014 over 2013. 2015 also saw a 7% drop in sales of children’s books to Europe, alongside small increases in sales to the Middle East/North Africa, Africa Sub-Sahara, East/South Asia and Other Americas regions. Between 2011 and 2015, a decrease in the value of physical exports of children’s books to Africa Sub‑Sahara, Australasia and North America slightly outweighed growth in sales to the other regions (Table 6.4).

Table 6.4 Export sales of physical Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other children’s books: by region TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 84 20 5 8 18 22 10 2 * 2012 77 20 4 7 16 19 9 2 * 2013 79 19 5 7 17 19 11 2 * 2014 102 23 6 7 18 30 16 2 * 2015 82 22 6 7 18 18 9 2 * % change in sales 2012/2011 -8.7 +1.0 -11.1 -10.4 -12.0 -12.2 -10.7 -15.9 +36.6 2013/2012 +3.1 -1.4 +4.0 -10.7 +5.8 +2.7 +20.7 +1.7 -4.3 2014/2013 +28.3 +19.1 +29.6 +6.1 +6.0 +53.6 +50.3 +5.6 -11.8 2015/2014 -19.2 -7.0 +4.5 +1.4 +3.0 -40.5 -43.5 +25.3 +26.2

2015/2011 -2.4 +10.3 +25.2 -13.9 +1.6 -17.7 -8.6 +13.2 +45.3

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding * = < £0.5m

Australasia’s share of exports of physical children’s books fell to 22% in 2015, having increased to 29% in 2014. North America’s share similarly dropped back in 2015 to a lower level than in 2011–14. In contrast, Europe’s share of children’s export sales rose from 23% to 26% over the five years as a whole (Figure 6.4).

Figure 6.4 100% Exported physical children’s books: 2 2 2 2 3 regional shares (of net invoiced value) 12 90% 12 14 16 11 Unspecified 80% 22 Other Americas 26 25 70% 25 29

North America 60%

22 20 Australasia 50% 21 21 17 40% East & South Asia 9 10 10 8 7 30% 7 6 6 Africa Sub‑Sahara 6 6 20%

Mid East / N Africa 26 25 26 10% 23 23

Europe 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100%

52 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Children’s book sales 7 School book sales

Sector review by Colin Hughes, managing director, Collins Learning and chair of The PA’s Educational Publishers Council

marked increase in 2015 in the sale of books and digital support materials to UK A schools reflects the usual upturn associated with curriculum and examination change.

It is the second year of an improving market, brought about by the previous coalition government’s decision to reshape the curriculum across a period of three years. 2015 was the second phase, with the most important changes being secondary mathematics ©© 9% to £319m and A level. Total physical and digital book sales Although volumes in print are down, home sales by value are up 13%, due to improved pricing – and digital book growth is 23%. There have been significant increases in UK ©© 8% to £303m publishers’ revenues from digital platforms (as opposed to ebooks): platform sales now Total physical book sales represent the fastest growing element of UK education publishers’ revenues. The UK schools industry continues to perform strongly in export too, growing most notably in the ©© 23% to £16m Middle East and North Africa. Total digital book sales Mathematics at GCSE has historically been one of the most significant subjects in driving ©© 13% to £177m change. Although many secondary schools in England (Scotland’s own separate curriculum Home physical book changes have already largely been implemented) decided to hold back from replacing their sales mathematics scheme, most have made the switch. And virtually all are now acquiring digital platforms and content alongside textbooks – in some cases, digital only – which has played ©© 17% to £13m a large part in growing the digital content market. In primary, too, digital growth has been Home digital book sales strong, with schools renewing subscriptions from the previous year’s curriculum changes. A‑level changes have been critical in growing the market. ©© 2% to £126m Export physical book Since the last election, the new team of ministers at the Department for Education has sales strongly advocated the restoration of textbook use in schools, and has encouraged UK publishers to set higher standards. The Educational Publishers Council (EPC) has ©© 57% to £3m responded actively, by adopting industry guidelines, subject by subject, for textbook Export digital book sales quality. Ministers have in response lent overt support to publishers, by encouraging schools to invest more strongly in quality textbooks, on the grounds that international evidence suggests that their use is associated with improved school performance. Most importantly, the Department has encouraged Ofsted, its school standards agency, to write to schools urging them to use textbooks more widely.

For EPC figures on trends in the UK school market, see Appendix C.

School book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 53 54 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | School book sales 7.1 Publisher sales of school books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of school books rose by 9% in 2015, to £319m. This growth reflected a 23% increase in the value of sales of digital products (to £16m),11 and an 8% rise in the value of physical school book sales. Between 2011 and 2015, sales in the school sector rose 15% overall, with a near threefold increase in digital sales and 12% growth for physical sales (Table 7.1a).

Table 7.1a Publisher sales of school TOTAL Physical Digital books: physical and digital £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 277 271 6

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 286 277 9 2013 291 280 11 2014 293 281 13 2015 319 303 16 % change in sales 2012/2011 +3.3 +2.3 +50.6 2013/2012 +1.5 +1.0 +18.4 2014/2013 +0.9 +0.2 +20.4 2015/2014 +8.6 +7.9 +23.2

2015/2011 +15.0 +11.7 +164.6

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, online subscriptions and other digital products) accounted for 5% of the total invoiced value of sales of school books in 2015, rising from 2% in 2011 (Figure 7.1a).

Figure 7.1a 100% School books: physical and digital 2 3 4 4 5 shares (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 98 97 96 96 95 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

11 See Technical Appendix for details of definitions and coverage of digital sales. Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

School book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 55 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of digital school books to UK customers rose by 17% in 2015, 12 with a 13% increase in the value of physical children’s sales in the home market, and in home sales of school books overall. Export sales of school books increased by 3% overall, with 2% growth for physical sales, and a more than 50% rise for digital, albeit from a low base (Table 7.1b).

Table 7.1b – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and export TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital school books: physical and digital £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 173 163 10 118 117 1 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 167 157 11 126 124 2 * = <£0.5m 2015 189 177 13 129 126 3 % change in sales 2014/2013 -3.1 -3.8 +8.2 +6.8 +5.7 +199.2 2015/2014 +13.1 +12.8 +17.0 +2.6 +1.7 +56.8

2015/2013 +9.6 +8.5 +26.6 +9.6 +7.5 +369.0

Digital sales accounted for 7% of revenue from school book sales in the UK market in both 2014 and 2015. The digital share of school exports stood at 2% in both years (Figure 7.1b).

Figure 7.1b Home and exported school books: 100% 6 7 7 1 2 2 physical and digital shares 90% (of net invoiced value) 80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 99 98 98 94 93 93 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

12 NB. Figures for home sales of digital school books as measured by the PASM scheme (and used to determine the figures in this section – see Appendix A) may differ from those measured by the PA’s Educational Publishers Council (as detailed in Appendix C) in terms of absolute numbers and growth rates. This reflects differences in companies participating in each scheme and, in particular, in the way that participants split their sales into physical versus digital (much school output consists of blended physical and digital elements, which are not always easily or consistently categorised by format).

56 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | School book sales 7.2 Publisher sales of physical school books

While 2015 saw an 8% increase in the invoiced value of physical schools sales, physical unit sales in this sector fell 3%, with volume decreases in sales to both the home and export markets. The pattern is even more marked in the longer term, with value sales of physical school books up 8% (home) and 17% (export) but unit sales down 11% and 33% respectively (Tables 7.2a and 7.2b).

Table 7.2a Total Physical Physical Publisher sales of physical physical home export school books: home and export £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 271 163 108 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 277 172 106 2013 280 163 117 2014 281 157 124 2015 303 177 126 % change in sales 2012/2011 +2.3 +5.5 -2.6 2013/2012 +1.0 -5.3 +11.2 2014/2013 +0.2 -3.8 +5.7 2015/2014 +7.9 +12.8 +1.7

2015/2011 +11.7 +8.4 +16.5

Table 7.2b Total Physical Physical Publisher sales of physical school physical home export books: home and export (net units) m units m units m units

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 59.7 23.5 36.2 2012 49.0 25.0 24.0 2013 53.9 24.0 29.9 2014 46.8 21.2 25.5 2015 45.4 21.0 24.4 % change in sales 2012/2011 -17.9 +6.4 -33.7 2013/2012 +9.9 -3.9 +24.3 2014/2013 -13.2 -11.7 -14.4 2015/2014 -2.9 -0.8 -4.7

2015/2011 -24.0 -10.5 -32.8

School book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 57 Exports continued to account for just over half of physical school book unit sales in 2015, and just over two‑fifths of school book revenue in 2015 (Figures 7.2a and 7.2b).

Figure 7.2a Physical school books: home and 100% export shares (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% 40 38 42 44 42 Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50%

40%

30% 60 62 58 56 58 20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 7.2b Physical school books: home and 100% export shares (of net units) 90%

80% 49 Export sales 55 55 54 70% 61

Home sales 60%

50%

40%

30% 51 45 45 46 20% 39

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

58 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | School book sales 7.3 Average invoiced price of physical school books

The average invoiced price for physical school books rose 11% to £6.67 in 2015, and has increased by nearly half since 2011. The average unit price for sales in this category to the home market rose 14% in 2015 (to £8.39), and was up by a fifth between 2011 and 2015 as a whole. The average price for exported physical school titles rose by three‑quarters over the five‑year period, with a 7% increase (to £5.18) in 2015 (Table 7.3).

Table 7.3 TOTAL Home Export Average invoiced price of physical £ £ £ school books: home and export 2011 4.54 6.93 2.99

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 5.66 6.87 4.39 2013 5.20 6.77 3.93 2014 6.00 7.38 4.86 2015 6.67 8.39 5.18 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +24.7 -0.8 +47.0 2013/2012 -8.2 -1.5 -10.5 2014/2013 +15.5 +9.0 +23.5 2015/2014 +11.2 +13.7 +6.7

2015/2011 +47.0 +21.1 +73.4

Figure 7.3 charts the changes in average invoiced prices for physical school books over the last five years, using an index where 2011 = 100. It illustrates the rise in prices for export sales in 2012 and 2014, and for home sales in 2014 and 2015.

Figure 7.3 Index of average price of physical 180 school book sales: home and export 170 (2011 = 100) 160 Export sales 150 Total sales 140 Home sales 130

120 Index 2011 = 100

110

100

90 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

School book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 59 7.4 Export sales of physical school books, by region

The small increase in the invoiced value of exports of physical school books in 2015 was driven by a double‑digit rise in sales to the Middle East/North Africa, and a smaller increase in sales to the Other Americas region. In contrast, revenue from school book sales to Europe, Africa Sub-Sahara and Australasia was lower in 2015 than 2014, and compared to 2011. These decreases over the five‑year period were outweighed by large increases in revenue from sales of school books to the Middle East/North Africa and East/South Asia regions (Table 7.4).

Table 7.4 Export sales of physical Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other school books: by region TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 108 18 34 18 13 3 4 19 * 2012 106 20 34 12 15 2 4 20 * 2013 117 18 45 15 16 2 4 18 * 2014 124 22 46 12 19 3 5 18 * 2015 126 16 56 10 19 2 4 19 0 % change in sales 2012/2011 -2.6 +9.5 +0.5 -37.3 +16.1 -18.5 -0.4 +3.5 -46.1 2013/2012 +11.2 -10.0 +31.6 +30.1 +6.9 -0.9 +4.9 -8.1 +1.5 2014/2013 +5.7 +23.9 +2.5 -22.2 +19.3 +21.3 +35.2 -1.2 +22.1 2015/2014 +1.7 -27.6 +21.9 -15.8 +1.0 -8.7 -26.5 +8.2 -101.9

2015/2011 +16.5 -11.5 +65.4 -46.6 +49.5 -10.5 +3.8 +1.7 -101.3

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding * = <£0.5m

The Middle East/North Africa was the largest destination for exports of physical school books in 2015, having seen its share of the sector rise from 31% to 45% since 2011. East/South Asia also gained share in school export value over the five years, whereas the shares taken by Africa Sub‑Sahara, Other Americas and Europe fell from 17% in each case to 8%, 15% and 13% respectively (Figure 7.4).

Figure 7.4 Exported physical school books: 100% regional shares (of net invoiced value) 15 14 15 90% 17 18

Other Americas 3 4 3 80% 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 13 N America 12 15 15 70% 14

Australasia 60% 13 9 8 17 11

East & South Asia 50%

40% Africa Sub‑Sahara 37 32 38 45 31 30% Mid East / N Africa 20%

Europe 10% 19 17 15 18 NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100% 13 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

60 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | School book sales 8 ELT book sales

Sector review by Stephanie Richards, ELT educational services director, Oxford University Press

he decline (-4%) in ELT sales by value recorded in the PA Statistics Yearbook T reinforces the impression of those working in the markets.

ELT is the single largest component of publishers’ export sales – although the profile of ELT exports varies from that of total sales in the report, with Europe still being the largest market in ELT, followed by Other Americas and East and South Asia, ahead of the Middle East and a long way ahead of North America. ªª 4% to £262m Total physical and digital The decline in value is affected by a number of factors, including currency movements book sales (especially affecting Brazil but also in Europe), particular difficulties in countries such as Argentina, and areas of conflict – of which there were too many. ªª 5% to £247m Total physical book sales There has not been great success as yet in monetising digital products in the ELT market, with the relatively low revenue from digital sales of ELT books (£15m, compared to more ©© 35% to 15m than £247m from physical books) failing to reflect the amount of development effort and Total digital book sales expenditure devoted to digital initiatives. As pointed out in last year’s report, the transition to digital, in the majority of English language learning environments, continues to evolve ªª 21% to £10m slowly, grappling with infrastructure, connectivity, funding and training. Home physical book sales UK market

©© 92% to £2m Despite an increase of 16% in the average invoiced price of physical ELT books, the value Home digital sales of sales in the home market declined by 21%. However, although there are institutional reasons – such as the change in visa controls – why the UK market is challenged, there ªª 4% to £237m is also anecdotal evidence of an increased tendency by some customers to source Export physical book from further afield. sales Trends ©© 29% to £13m Export digital book sales The demand from ministries of education, employers, parents and students for English language learning materials and services continues. Some OUP examples of initiatives demonstrating the diverse international receptiveness to UK publishers’ offers include a ministry-sponsored extensive reading scheme adopted in Italy; the wholesale use of UK ELT textbooks in primary schools in Vietnam; and wide‑scale placement testing in Colombia.

ELT book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 61 Many countries are introducing or planning to introduce bilingual education into their schools – which in practice may mean anything from all subjects taught in the target language to an aim to get students to B1 level by the time they finish school.

The importance of assessment continues to grow, and there is an increasing demand from decision‑makers and other stakeholders that materials suppliers provide evidence of learning. This forms part of the whole offer that publishers are expected to deliver – not just learning materials, but also professional development and assessment.

It was another challenging year for the sector, but hope lies in the strong underlying demand. The task for publishers in 2016 will be to meet customers’ needs head on with an offer that extends beyond printed materials.

62 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | ELT book sales 8.1 Publisher sales of ELT books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of ELT books fell 4% in 2015, to £262m. This decrease reflected a 5% drop in the value of sales of physical books, and came despite a 35% rise in sales of digital products to £15m.13 Between 2011 and 2015, a 4% drop in revenue from physical sales was balanced by a threefold increase in digital sales (Table 8.1a).

Table 8.1a Publisher sales of ELT TOTAL Physical Digital books: physical and digital £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 262 256 5

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 294 288 6 2013 283 274 9 2014 272 261 11 2015 262 247 15 % change in sales 2012/2011 +12.3 +12.2 +18.1 2013/2012 -3.8 -4.9 +44.8 2014/2013 -3.9 -4.8 +25.4 2015/2014 -3.6 -5.2 +34.6

2015/2011 +0.1 -3.7 +188.4

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, online subscriptions and other digital book sales) accounted for 6% of the total invoiced value of sales of ELT books in 2015, up from 4% in 2014, and from 2% in 2011 (Figure 8.1a).

Figure 8.1a ELT books: physical and digital 100% 2 2 3 4 6 shares (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 98 98 97 96 94 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

13 See Technical Appendix for details of definitions and coverage of digital sales. Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

ELT book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 63 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of digital ELT books to UK customers doubled in 2015 (albeit from a low base), but with revenue from physical ELT sales in the home market down 21%, UK sales of ELT fell 13% overall. Export sales of ELT fell 3% overall in 2015, and were down 7% compared to 2013, with a 4 – 5% decrease for physical sales, and 25 – 30% growth for digital in each of the last two years (Table 8.1b).

Table 8.1b – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and export TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital ELT books: physical and digital £m £m £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2013 14 13 1 268 260 8 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2014 14 13 1 258 248 10 2015 12 10 2 250 237 13 % change in sales 2014/2013 -5.4 -6.7 +15.0 -3.8 -4.7 +26.5 2015/2014 -12.8 -21.1 +92.0 -3.1 -4.4 +28.9

2015/2013 -17.5 -26.4 +120.8 -6.8 -8.9 +63.1

Digital sales accounted for 16% of revenue from ELT sales in the UK market in 2015 – more than twice the proportion in 2014. In exports, the digital share has risen more gradually, from 3% in 2013 to 5% in 2015 (Figure 8.1b).

Figure 8.1b Home and exported ELT books: 100% 6 7 3 4 5 physical and digital shares 90% 16 (of net invoiced value) 80% Digital sales 70%

Physical sales 60%

50% 97 94 93 96 95 40% 84

30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

64 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | ELT book sales 8.2 Publisher sales of physical ELT books

In addition to a 5% decrease in the value of physical ELT sales, 2015 saw a 6% decrease in ELT unit sales, with export sales down 6% by volume and 4% by value, and double‑digit decreases in sales to the much smaller UK market by both measures. Between 2011 and 2015, unit sales of physical ELT exports were down 9%, with revenue down 2%. ELT sales to the home market fell by a third by both measures over the five years (Tables 8.2a and 8.2b).

Table 8.2a Total Physical Physical Publisher sales of physical physical home export ELT books: home and export £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2011 256 15 241

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 288 13 275 2013 274 13 260 2014 261 13 248 2015 247 10 237 % change in sales 2012/2011 +12.2 -13.8 +13.8 2013/2012 -4.9 +1.8 -5.2 2014/2013 -4.8 -6.7 -4.7 2015/2014 -5.2 -21.1 -4.4

2015/2011 -3.7 -35.4 -1.7

Table 8.2b Total Physical Physical Publisher sales of physical ELT physical home export books: home and export (net units) m units m units m units

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2011 72.2 1.8 70.4 2012 82.3 1.6 80.8 2013 78.5 1.7 76.8 2014 69.3 1.7 67.7 2015 65.1 1.1 63.9 % change in sales 2012/2011 +14.0 -15.4 +14.8 2013/2012 -4.6 +11.2 -4.9 2014/2013 -11.7 -3.9 -11.9 2015/2014 -6.2 -31.9 -5.5

2015/2011 -9.9 -38.5 -9.1

ELT book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 65 Between 2011 and 2015, the home market share of physical ELT sales has fallen from 6% to 4% of value, and from 3% to 2% of unit sales (Figures 8.2a and 8.2b).

Figure 8.2a Physical ELT books: home and export 100% shares (of net invoiced value) 90%

80% Export sales 70%

Home sales 60% 94 95 95 95 50% 96

40%

30%

20%

10% 6 5 5 5 4 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 8.2b Physical ELT books: home and export 100% shares (of net units) 90%

80% Export sales 70%

Home sales 60%

50% 97 98 98 98 98

40%

30%

20%

10% 3 2 2 2 2 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

66 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | ELT book sales 8.3 Average invoiced price of physical ELT books

The average invoiced price of physical ELT titles rose 1% in 2015, to £3.80, with export prices up at the same rate, and prices for home sales up 16%. Between 2011 and 2015, the average price for ELT books sold to export markets rose 8% to £3.71, while the average price for sales to the home market increased 5% to £8.73 (Table 8.3).

Table 8.3 TOTAL Home Export Average invoiced price of physical £ £ £ ELT books: home and export 2011 3.55 8.32 3.43

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 3.49 8.48 3.40 2013 3.49 7.76 3.39 2014 3.76 7.53 3.67 2015 3.80 8.73 3.71 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 -1.6 +1.9 -0.8 2013/2012 -0.3 -8.4 -0.3 2014/2013 +7.8 -3.0 +8.2 2015/2014 +1.0 +15.9 +1.2

2015/2011 +6.9 +5.0 +8.2

Figure 8.3 charts the changes in average invoiced prices for physical ELT books over the last five years, using an index where 2011 = 100. It illustrates that export prices were steady between 2011 and 2013, before rising in 2014 and 2015, while the increased price for ELT books sold in the UK in 2015 reversed the decreases seen in 2013 and 2014.

Figure 8.3 Index of average price of physical ELT 120 book sales: home and export 115 (2011 = 100)

110 Export sales

105 Total sales

Home sales 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 95 Index 2011 = 100 90

85

80

ELT book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 67 8.4 Export sales of physical ELT books, by region

The overall decrease in the invoiced value of physical ELT exports in 2015 reflected a drop in sales to Europe and the Middle East/North Africa, contrasting with double‑digit increases in revenue from sales to the Other Americas and East/South Asia regions. Between 2011 and 2015, revenue from ELT sales to East/South Asia grew fastest, with significant growth too for the Other Americas. However, these increases were outweighed by double‑digit decreases in ELT sales to Europe, the Middle East/North Africa and Africa Sub‑Sahara (Table 8.4).

Table 8.4 Export sales of physical Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other ELT books: by region TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2011 241 119 44 5 29 2 9 33 * 2012 275 150 42 2 33 1 11 36 * 2013 260 138 40 3 34 1 9 36 * 2014 248 114 47 3 37 1 9 37 * 2015 237 103 38 3 42 1 9 42 0 % change in sales 2012/2011 +13.8 +25.8 -5.6 -53.1 +13.7 -62.7 +19.3 +10.8 - 2013/2012 -5.2 -7.7 -3.5 +4.5 +2.3 +0.2 -19.6 -0.1 - 2014/2013 -4.7 -17.6 +16.7 +13.3 +10.4 +23.7 +4.9 +2.5 +16.7 2015/2014 -4.4 -9.9 -19.7 -6.8 +13.8 -3.9 -2.4 +13.3 -6.9

2015/2011 -1.7 -13.8 -14.7 -48.2 +46.1 -55.5 -1.8 +28.6 -

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding * + <£0.5m

Europe remained the largest destination for exports of physical ELT books in 2015, despite its share falling from 54% to 43% since 2012. The shares taken by East/South Asia and the Other Americas region rose from 12% and 13% respectively to 18% in each case over the same period (Figure 8.4).

Figure 8.4 Exported physical ELT books: 100% regional shares (of net invoiced value) 14 13 14 15 90% 18 4 Other Americas 4 3 4 80% 4 12 12 13 N America 15 70% 2 1 1 18 1 15 Australasia 60% 16 18 1 19 16 East & South Asia 50%

40% Africa Sub‑Sahara

30% 54 53 Mid East / N Africa 49 46 20% 43

Europe 10% NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

68 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | ELT book sales 9 Academic and professional book sales

Sector review by Mandy Hill, managing director, academic publishing, Cambridge University Press

he academic and professional sector has been in a state of flux for many years, with T areas of growth and positivity flanked by challenges and decline. In overall story, 2015 is no different, but the details are interesting.

UK publishers’ sales of physical academic titles were down by value 19% (social sciences and humanities) and 34% (scientific, technical and medical) in North America, and down 5% ªª 2% to £1,049m (SSH) and 6% (STM) in Europe. The American fall is in part due to industry consolidation, Total physical and digital with the purchase of YBP Library Services by EBSCO impacting purchasing behaviour. book sales UK academic and professional publishers had a difficult year, with a total drop in sales ªª 4% to £787m of more than 2% by value. Unlike in previous years, the rise in digital sales (4%) was not Total physical book sales enough to offset the fall in sales of physical books (-4%).

©© 4% to £262m While the STM sector has been responsible for the largest increases in digital sales in the Total digital book sales past few years, in 2015 it recorded only a 2% rise by value, while there was a 4% rise in SSH digital sales. Still, digital sales now account for about a quarter of academic and ªª 3% to £577m professional turnover, and offer encouragement that we are not in a declining market, Total SSH physical book but one that is transforming. sales Open access (OA) monograph publishing is too small to make a significant impact yet, ©© 4% to £201m but we need to continue to engage, experiment, and develop. It is of course interesting Total SSH digital book to see the number of new university presses that have launched and are focused on OA sales monograph, and journal, publishing.14

ªª 8% to £210m As with any transformation, however, not everything moves at the same pace. The recent Total STM physical book HEFCE report Monographs and Open Access: A Report to HEFCE reaffirms that monographs sales are still central to research dissemination and often an integral part of the research process itself for most, if not all, humanities subjects as well as for many in arts and social sciences. ©© 2% to £61m With sales of and access to monographs increasingly online, the trend towards sales and Total STM digital book access at the chapter level threatens the integrity of the monograph, which is often intended sales to be read as a whole. Open access may be part of the answer, but this does not alter the fact that users’ habits are also changing, so the answer is going to be complex. It will be interesting to see how this all affects the data in future editions of the Yearbook.

See Appendix D for the UK higher education textbook market by category.

14 See Section 10.1 for open access article publication charges.

Academic and professional book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 69 70 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Academic and professional book sales 9.1 Publisher sales of academic/professional books: physical and digital

The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of academic/professional books fell 2% in 2015, to £1,049m. This decrease came despite a 4% rise in the value of digital book sales in this sector, reflecting instead a 4% drop in the value of physical sales.15 Revenue from digital academic/professional book sales has almost doubled since 2011, but a 15% decrease for physical books over the same period means that value sales in the sector overall have fallen 2% over the last five years as a whole (Table 9.1a).

Table 9.1a TOTAL Physical Digital Publisher sales of academic/ £m £m £m professional books: physical and digital (net invoiced value) 2011 1,067 921 147 2012 1,074 893 181 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 1,082 866 216 2014 1,074 822 252 2015 1,049 787 262 % change in sales 2012/2011 +0.6 -3.0 +23.4 2013/2012 +0.7 -3.0 +19.0 2014/2013 -0.7 -5.1 +17.0 2015/2014 -2.4 -4.3 +3.8

2015/2011 -1.8 -14.6 +78.2

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, online subscriptions and other digital book products) accounted for 25% of the total invoiced value of sales of academic/professional books in 2015, with this share rising steadily from 14% in 2011 (Figure 9.1a).

Figure 9.1a Academic/professional books: 100% physical and digital shares 14 90% 17 20 (of net invoiced value) 24 25 80%

Digital sales 70%

60% Physical sales 50% 86 40% 83 80 76 75 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

15 See Technical Appendix for details of definitions and coverage of digital sales. Note that while physical unit sales and unit prices are provided in this section, the data on the digital market is limited to showing value sales. This is due to the wide variation in what constitutes a ‘unit’ in the digital market, and the difficulty of collecting comprehensive or reliable figures for these measures.

Academic and professional book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 71 The invoiced value of sales of social science/humanities (SSH) and scientific/technical/medical (STM) titles fell by 1% and 6% respectively in 2015, with 3% and 8% decreases in physical sales outweighing 4% and 2% increases in revenue from digital sales. Between 2011 and 2015, digital sales of SSH titles rose 69% to £193m, while sales of digital STM titles more than doubled to £61m. In SSH, this digital growth outweighed an 11% drop in physical sales, whereas in STM, a 23% decrease for physical over the five years fuelled a 10% drop for the sector overall (Table 9.1b).

Table 9.1b – – – Social science/humanities – – – – – – Science/technical/medical – – – Publisher sales of academic/ TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital professional books by £m £m £m £m £m £m category: physical and digital 2011 766 647 119 302 274 28 (net invoiced value) 2012 777 636 141 297 257 40 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 782 616 166 300 250 50 2014 787 594 193 287 227 59 2015 778 577 201 271 210 61 % change in sales 2012/2011 +1.5 -1.6 +18.7 -1.7 -6.3 +43.4 2013/2012 +0.6 -3.2 +17.9 +1.0 -2.4 +22.8 2014/2013 +0.7 -3.5 +16.0 -4.4 -9.2 +20.1 2015/2014 -1.2 -3.0 +4.2 -5.6 -7.7 +2.4

2015/2011 +1.6 -10.8 +69.2 -10.3 -23.3 +116.6

Between 2011 and 2015, the share of invoiced value taken by digital sales increased from 16% to 26% in the SSH sector, and from 9% to 22% in STM (Figure 9.1b).

Figure 9.1b Academic/professional books by 100% 9 category: physical and digital shares 16 14 17 90% 18 21 21 (of net invoiced value) 25 26 22 80%

Digital sales 70%

60% Physical sales 50% 91 84 86 83 40% 82 79 79 75 74 78 30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Social science/humanities Science/technical/medical

72 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Academic and professional book sales The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of digital SSH books to UK customers rose by a fifth in 2015, enough to turn a 2% decrease for physical sales into 4% growth for home sales of SSH overall, with sales up 8% in 2015 compared to 2013. In contrast, 2015 saw a decrease in revenue from both physical and digital SSH exports, with overall export sales in this category down 6% compared to 2014, and 8% lower than in 2013 (Table 9.1c).

Table 9.1c – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital export social science/humanities £m £m £m £m £m £m books: physical and digital 2013 375 287 88 407 329 78 (net invoiced value) 2014 387 278 109 400 316 84 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2015 403 274 129 375 303 72 % change in sales 2014/2013 +3.2 -3.0 +23.2 -1.7 -4.0 +8.0 2015/2014 +4.2 -1.5 +18.8 -6.4 -4.2 -14.6

2015/2013 +7.5 -4.4 +46.4 -8.0 -8.0 -7.8

Digital sales accounted for 32% of revenue for SSH sales to the UK market in 2015, up from 24% in 2013. In contrast, the digital share of export sales of SSH fell back to 19% in 2015 (Figure 9.1c).

Figure 9.1c Home and exported social science/ 100% humanities books: physical and digital 90% 19 19 shares (of net invoiced value) 24 21 28 32 80%

Digital sales 70%

60% Physical sales 50%

81 81 40% 76 79 72 68 30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

Academic and professional book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 73 The invoiced value of UK publisher sales of digital STM books to UK customers rose by 12% in 2015. However, an 8% decrease in the value of physical STM sales in the home market means that home sales in this category fell 7% overall over 2014, and were 14% lower than in 2013. Export sales of STM books fell by 5% overall in 2015, with an 8% decrease for physical sales outweighing a 1% rise for digital (Table 9.1d).

Table 9.1d – – – – – – – Home sales value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Export sales value – – – – – – – Publisher sales of home and TOTAL Physical Digital TOTAL Physical Digital export science/technical/medical £m £m £m £m £m £m books: physical and digital 2013 117 112 5 183 138 45 (net invoiced value) 2014 108 101 7 179 127 52 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2015 101 93 8 170 117 53 % change in sales 2014/2013 -8.1 -10.4 +45.2 -2.0 -8.3 +17.4 2015/2014 -6.5 -7.8 +11.9 -5.0 -7.6 +1.1

2015/2013 -14.1 -17.4 +62.5 -6.9 -15.2 +18.7

Digital sales accounted for 8% of revenue from STM sales in the UK market in 2015, up from 4% in 2013. The digital share of STM exports rose from 24% to 31% over the three years (Figure 9.1d).

Figure 9.1d Home and exported science/ 100% 4 7 8 technical/medical books: physical and 90% digital shares (of net invoiced value) 24 29 31 80%

Digital sales 70%

60% Physical sales 50% 96 93 92 40% 76 71 69 30%

20%

10%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Home Export

74 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Academic and professional book sales 9.2 Publisher sales of physical academic/professional books

2015 saw a 3% decrease in the value of physical academic/professional sales to the home market (to £367m), with unit sales down 5%. Export sales of physical books in this sector fell 5% in value to £420m in 2015, with unit sales down 10%. Between 2011 and 2015, the value of both home and export sales of physical academic/professional books fell by 14 – 15%, with unit sales down by around a quarter in each case (Table 9.2a).

Table 9.2a – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical Total Physical Physical Total Physical Physical academic/professional books: physical home export physical home export home and export £m £m £m m units m units m units 2011 921 431 490 60.5 28.8 31.7 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 893 414 479 58.0 27.9 30.1 2013 866 399 467 54.1 24.8 29.4 2014 822 379 443 48.6 21.6 27.0 2015 787 367 420 44.7 20.5 24.2 % change in sales 2012/2011 -3.0 -3.9 -2.3 -4.1 -3.1 -5.0 2013/2012 -3.0 -3.6 -2.5 -6.7 -11.2 -2.4 2014/2013 -5.1 -5.0 -5.2 -10.2 -12.6 -8.1 2015/2014 -4.3 -3.2 -5.2 -8.0 -5.0 -10.3

2015/2011 -14.6 -14.8 -14.4 -26.0 -28.7 -23.6

Exports increased their share of physical book unit sales in the academic/professional sector between 2011 and 2015, from 52% to 54%, while maintaining a 53% share of invoiced value (Figure 9.2a).

Figure 9.2a Physical academic/professional 100% books: home and export shares 90% (of net sales) 80% 53 54 54 54 53 52 52 54 55 54 Export sales 70%

60% Home sales 50%

40%

30% 47 46 46 46 47 48 48 46 46 20% 45

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

Academic and professional book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 75 In SSH, 2015 saw a 3% decrease in the invoiced value of physical sales, with unit sales down 7%. The decrease reflected a 2% value and 3% volume decrease for home sales, with export sales dropping 4% and 9% respectively. Between 2011 and 2015, revenue from physical SSH books fell 11% for both UK and export sales, with unit sales to the home market down by a quarter, and export unit sales down by a fifth (Table 9.2b).

Table 9.2b – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical social Total Physical Physical Total Physical Physical science/humanities books: home physical home export physical home export and export £m £m £m m units m units m units 2011 647 309 338 46.6 22.5 24.1 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 636 301 335 45.1 22.0 23.1 2013 616 287 329 42.2 19.4 22.9 2014 594 278 316 38.5 17.3 21.2 2015 577 274 303 35.9 16.7 19.2

2012/2011 -1.6 -2.5 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 -4.3 2013/2012 -3.2 -4.7 -1.9 -6.4 -12.0 -1.1 2014/2013 -3.5 -3.0 -4.0 -8.9 -10.6 -7.4 2015/2014 -3.0 -1.5 -4.2 -6.6 -3.3 -9.3

2015/2011 -10.8 -11.2 -10.5 -22.9 -25.6 -20.5

Exports decreased their share of physical book unit sales in the SSH sector in 2015 itself (to 53%), though remained ahead of 2011 – 12 levels. The export share of value stood at 52-53% in each of the last five years (Figure 9.2b).

Figure 9.2b Physical social science/humanities 100% books: home and export shares 90% (of net sales) 80% 52 53 53 53 52 52 51 54 55 53 Export sales 70%

60% Home sales 50%

40%

30% 48 47 47 47 48 48 49 46 45 47 20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

76 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Academic and professional book sales Physical STM sales fell 8% in invoiced value in 2015 over 2014 for both home and export markets, and were down 12% and 14% by volume, respectively. Between 2011 and 2015, home and export sales were each down by just under a quarter in value, and by over a third in volume (Table 9.2c).

Table 9.2c – – – – – – – Net invoiced value – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Net units – – – – – – – – – Publisher sales of physical Total Physical Physical Total Physical Physical science/technical/medical books: physical home export physical home export home and export £m £m £m m units m units m units 2011 274 122 152 13.9 6.3 7.5 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 257 113 144 12.9 5.9 7.0 2013 250 112 138 11.9 5.4 6.5 2014 227 101 127 10.1 4.3 5.8 2015 210 93 117 8.8 3.8 5.0

2012/2011 -6.3 -7.3 -5.5 -6.9 -6.7 -7.1 2013/2012 -2.4 -0.6 -3.8 -7.5 -8.3 -6.9 2014/2013 -9.2 -10.4 -8.3 -14.9 -19.8 -10.8 2015/2014 -7.7 -7.8 -7.6 -13.2 -12.0 -14.0

2015/2011 -23.3 -23.9 -22.9 -36.4 -39.6 -33.7

Exports increased their share of physical book sales in the STM sector between 2011 and 2015, from 55% to 56% of invoiced value, and from 54% to 57% of units (Figure 9.2c).

Figure 9.2c Physical science/technical/medical 100% books: home and export shares 90% (of net sales) 80%

55 56 55 56 56 54 54 55 57 57 Export sales 70%

60% Home sales 50%

40%

30% 45 46 46 45 20% 45 44 44 44 43 43

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Invoiced value Units

Academic and professional book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 77 9.3 Average invoiced price of physical academic/ professional books

The average invoiced price for physical academic/professional books rose 4% to £17.59 in 2015, and was up by 16% since 2011. The average unit price for sales in this category to the home market rose by 2% in 2015 (to £17.86), and increased by 19% between 2011 and 2015 as a whole. The average price for exported physical academic/professional titles grew 12% over the five‑year period, and rose 6% to £17.35 in 2015 (Table 9.3a).

Table 9.3a TOTAL Home Export Average invoiced price of physical £ £ £ academic/professional books: 2011 15.23 14.95 15.48 home and export 2012 15.40 14.84 15.91

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 16.00 16.12 15.91 2014 16.90 17.52 16.41 2015 17.59 17.86 17.35 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +1.1 -0.7 +2.8 2013/2012 +3.9 +8.6 +0.0 2014/2013 +5.6 +8.7 +3.2 2015/2014 +4.0 +1.9 +5.7

2015/2011 +15.5 +19.4 +12.1

The average invoiced prices for home sales of physical SSH and STM titles rose by 2% and 5% respectively in 2015, with larger (6 – 8%) rises for prices of exports in these categories. SSH prices as a whole rose by 4% in 2015 over 2014, and by 16% compared to 2011. Prices for STM overall increased by 21% over the five years, and were up 6% in 2015 (Table 9.3b).

Table 9.3b Average invoiced price of physical – – – – – Social science/humanities – – – – – – – – – Science/technical/medical – – – – academic/professional books: TOTAL Home Export TOTAL Home Export by category: home and export £ £ £ £ £ £ 2011 13.87 13.73 14.00 19.79 19.30 20.21 NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 14.10 13.68 14.50 19.93 19.17 20.58 2013 14.58 14.82 14.39 21.04 20.77 21.28 2014 15.45 16.09 14.92 22.44 23.21 21.87 2015 16.05 16.38 15.76 23.86 24.31 23.51 % change in average invoiced price 2012/2011 +1.7 -0.4 +3.6 +0.7 -0.6 +1.8 2013/2012 +3.4 +8.3 -0.8 +5.6 +8.3 +3.4 2014/2013 +5.9 +8.6 +3.7 +6.7 +11.8 +2.8 2015/2014 +3.9 +1.8 +5.6 +6.3 +4.7 +7.5

2015/2011 +15.7 +19.3 +12.5 +20.5 +26.0 +16.3

78 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Academic and professional book sales 9.4 Export sales of physical academic/professional books, by region

2015 saw growth in the value of exports of physical SSH books to the Middle East/North Africa and to Australasia, but decreases in sales to other regions, and particularly to Europe and North America. Between 2011 and 2015, there was growth in SSH exports to Australasia (+31%), East/South Asia (+5%) and the Other Americas region (+3%), but double-digit decreases in sales to North America and Africa Sub-Sahara and a 9% drop in revenue from sales to Europe (Table 9.4a).

Table 9.4a Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other Export sales of social TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified science/humanities £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m books: by region 2011 338 131 43 33 55 9 63 3 * (net invoiced value) 2012 335 132 42 33 57 10 59 3 *

NB: % changes calculated 2013 329 129 46 29 58 10 53 3 * prior to rounding 2014 316 126 39 26 58 12 52 3 1 * = <£0.5m 2015 303 119 42 26 58 12 42 3 1 % change in sales 2012/2011 -0.9 +0.7 -2.6 +0.5 +3.1 +4.0 -7.7 -4.4 +12.3 2013/2012 -1.9 -2.3 +9.7 -11.3 +2.9 -1.0 -8.9 +1.7 -19.6 2014/2013 -4.0 -2.2 -16.4 -11.0 -0.8 +23.6 -3.2 +11.4 +56.7 2015/2014 -4.2 -5.4 +9.1 -0.4 -0.3 +2.7 -19.3 -5.3 +21.0

2015/2011 -10.5 -8.9 -2.5 -21.0 +4.9 +30.7 -34.4 +2.6 +71.2

Europe was the largest destination for exports of physical SSH books in 2015, accounting for two‑fifths of sales in each of the last five years. East/South Asia saw its share of the sector up from 16% to 19% between 2011 and 2015, while North America’s share dropped from 19% to 14% (Figure 9.4a).

Figure 9.4a Exported social science/ 100% 1 1 1 1 1 humanities books: regional shares 14 (of net invoiced value) 90% 19 17 16 16

4 3 4 80% 3 3 Other Americas 18 19 70% 16 17 18 North America 60% 10 9 9 Australasia 10 8 50% 14 12 14 East & South Asia 13 13 40%

Africa Sub‑Sahara 30%

Mid East / N Africa 20% 39 39 39 40 39

Europe 10%

NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Academic and professional book sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 79 The value of exports of physical STM books to the Middle East/North Africa rose by 14% in 2015, contrasting with decreases for all other regions, and particularly for Europe, East/South Asia and North America. Between 2011 and 2015, there were double-digit decreases in revenue from physical STM exports to all regions bar East/South Asia (Table 9.4b).

Table 9.4b Mid East/ Africa E & S North Other Export sales of TOTAL Europe N Africa Sub‑Sahara Asia Australasia America Americas Unspecified physical science/ £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m technical/medical 2011 152 63 28 17 23 2 18 * * books: by region 2012 144 58 27 14 22 2 19 * * (net invoiced value) 2013 138 56 26 14 22 2 17 * *

NB: % changes calculated 2014 127 50 20 13 25 2 16 * * prior to rounding 2015 117 47 22 12 23 2 11 * * % change in sales 2012/2011 -5.5 -7.7 -3.3 -16.2 -1.5 +6.0 +2.7 -5.6 +106.0 2013/2012 -3.8 -3.9 -5.5 -2.7 +1.0 -1.5 -7.1 -33.4 -7.3 2014/2013 -8.3 -10.6 -24.1 -7.1 +13.2 +2.0 -7.7 +0.0 +30.8 2015/2014 -7.6 -6.2 +13.7 -6.7 -10.2 -17.5 -33.6 -28.0 +106.3

2015/2011 -22.9 -25.7 -21.2 -29.2 +1.2 -12.2 -41.5 -54.7 +415.1

Europe remained the largest destination for exports of physical STM books in 2015, despite seeing its share fall from 42% to 40% since 2011. The share taken by North America fell from 12% to 9% over the period, while East/South Asia’s share of STM rose from 15% to 19% (Figure 9.4b).

Figure 9.4b Exported physical science/technical/ 100% medical books: regional shares 9 12 13 13 13 (of net invoiced value) 90% 2 1 2 2 2

80% 15 19 Other Americas 15 16 20 70% North America 11 10 10 10 60% 10 Australasia 50% 19 19 19 19 15 East & South Asia 40%

Africa Sub‑Sahara 30%

Mid East / N Africa 20% 42 41 41 39 40

Europe 10%

NB. Due to rounding, sum of %s may not = 100% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

80 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Academic and professional book sales 10 Total journal sales

Alicia Wise, director of access and policy at Elsevier and chair of The PA’s Academic, Professional and Learning Publishers Council

s the new chair of The PA’s Academic, Professional and Learning Publishers Council A (formerly known as the Academic Publishing Board), I am delighted to follow in the footsteps of my predecessors – most recently David Nicholson from John Wiley & Sons – to comment on a vibrant and important part of the UK’s publishing industry.

This is the fourth consecutive year in which the majority of The PA’s members active in ©© 5% to £1,134m journal publishing, accounting for about 70% of journals published by organisations based Total income from in the UK,16 have contributed to The PA’s survey on trends in the learned journals business. learned journals The results presented over the following pages highlight two realities: the continued importance of the sector to the UK economy, and an industry actively engaging with ©© 3% to £905m innovative business models. Total income from subscriptions Institutional subscription revenues continue to represent the largest source of income for the scholarly journals published by the participating organisations. This is no surprise, ªª to 80% and there is an increase of about 3% between 2014 and 2015, with the global growth in Share of income from the number of articles around 4% per year. Advertising revenues have dropped back to a subscriptions more typical £22m in 2015 from an unusual high of £48m in 2014 (for comparison, 2013 was £21m). Article publication charges (APCs) for open access publishing grew 57% ©© 58% to £55m to £55m. Other non-subscription revenues – which include subsidised titles that can also Total income from be freely available or open access – grew by 24% to £151m. open access APCs The growth in open access publishing revenue, albeit from a modest base, reflects the ªª 53% to £22m strong efforts by the UK academic publishing community to support the successful Total income from implementation of the UK’s national open access policy. As noted in “Monitoring the advertising Transition to Open Access” 17 – a report published by the Universities UK Open Access Co‑ordination Group – publishers have made huge strides since 2012 to ensure most ©© 3% to £151m journals offer open access publishing options. “Growth was fastest in the take-up of the Other non-subscription OA option in hybrid journals; but global take-up of publishing in fully-OA journals that do income not charge an APC was static.” This is no surprise, as hybrid journals tend to be long established with track records and known quality metrics. There is also a clear link, noted ©© to 84% in the report on page 59, between quality of the journals in which open access articles are Share of income from published and APC levels. electronic journals

16 Whether they describe themselves primarily as publishers, or societies, or other bodies. 17 www.researchinfonet.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Full-report-FINAL-AS-PUBLISHED.pdf

Total journal sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 81 We are also delighted that publishers have agreed to extend the successful Access to Research initiative.18 The service was originally launched as a pilot by the universities and science minister in 2014, in order to support expanded access to publicly funded research in the UK. Two years on and over 80% of UK local authorities, representing more than 2,600 libraries, have signed up to the initiative from across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Since the launch, over 84,000 users have accessed the service, and an independent report, commissioned by the Publishers Licensing Society (PLS) and the Society of Chief Librarians (SCL), and co-funded by PLS and Arts Council England, has confirmed the value of the Access to Research service to users. The report found that satisfaction with Access to Research is high, with 90% of those surveyed indicating the information they found through the service was useful. Over 10m articles from more than 8,600 journals are available.

Journal publishing is today largely electronic, but it may surprise some readers to discover that around 6% of journal income continues to come from print only and an additional 11% from electronic and print together. Electronic‑only packages have increased to 84% of total income in 2015, up from 81% in 2014. We expect this trend to continue.

As in each earlier edition of this Yearbook, the journals publishing business is fundamentally an export one in nature, and one that continues to represent an important source of employment and tax revenues for the UK. Perhaps more importantly, scholarly publishing continues to support the very valuable work done by researchers and research institutions, and learned and professional societies. Scholarly publishing supports the career development of researchers, and journals are widely available throughout the world. Sometimes this is through initiatives such as Research4Life19 – a partnership of UN agencies, libraries and publishers to provide access to research in 106 least‑developed countries – and sometimes it is through open access publishing.

The data presented in this survey is a partial picture of revenue from journal publishing only, and of course publishers are active in ensuring the journals they publish are available in innovative ways that support the changing needs of researchers. Whether this is to make journal articles available for text and data mining, or via social collaboration networks that align with our industry’s article sharing principles,20 publishers are active in investing in open infrastructure and imaginative in evolving their services to embrace all that technology offers.

18 www.accesstoresearch.org.uk 19 www.research4life.org 20 www.stm-assoc.org/2015_06_08_Voluntary_principles_for_article_sharing_on_scholarly_collaboration_networks.pdf

82 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total journal sales In 2016 The Publishers Association repeated its survey on publisher’s income from learned journals from members of its Serial Publishers Executive (SPE). Approximately three‑quarters of the SPE members participated, accounting for about 70% of journals published by UK-based entities. 21 The data that follows is based on the amalgamated responses of the participating companies only and has not been grossed up to represent the industry. 10.1 Publisher income from learned journals

The total value (home and export) of the participating publisher income from learned journals rose by 5% to £1,134m in 2015. This was due to a 3% growth in subscriptions as well as an increase in OA article publication charges (APCs) of 58% (as a result of increased uptake of this open access option) and other non-subscription income of 24%. At the same time the volume of articles published in journals from the participating publishers has been growing at over 5% annually. In contrast, income from advertising declined by 53% (Table 10.1).

Table 10.1 OA article Other Publisher income from learned TOTAL Subscriptions publication charges Advertising non‑subscription journals (net invoiced value) £m £m £m £m

NB (1): % changes calculated prior to rounding 2012 963 800 14 28 122 NB (2): The annual growth rates shown here 2013 22 1,025 837 23 21 144 are not necessarily of constant exchange rates. Further acquisitions and disposals may also 2014 1,080 876 35 48 121 affect the growth shown. 2015 1,134 905 55 22 151 % change in income 2013/2012 +6.4 +4.6 +73.5 -25.4 +17.6 2014/2013 +5.4 +4.6 +50.3 +131.2 -15.5 2015/2014 +5.0 +3.4 +57.5 -53.3 +24.2

2015/2012 +17.7 +13.1 +310.8 -19.5 +23.5

Between 2012 and 2015 the subscriptions share of income has declined from 83% to 80%, while OA article publication charges increased from 1% to 5%. Non-subscriptions took 13% in 2015, the same as in 2012 but less than in 2013. Advertising fell from 4% in 2014 to 2% in 2015 (Figure 10.1).

Figure 10.1 Share of income by type 100%

90%

80% Subscriptions 70%

OA article publication charges 60% 83 82 81 80

50% Advertising 40%

Other non‑subscription income 30% 20% 1 2 3 5 3 2 4 2 10% 13 14 11 13 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015

21 Publishers, societies or other bodies. 22 Due to respondent revisions, 2013 figures have changed since the last Yearbook.

Total journal sales | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 83 10.2 Publisher subscription income from learned journals by format

Between 2014 and 2015, the subscriptions to electronic journals increased 7% to £758m, while both print and print/electronic bundle declined, by 2% and 18% respectively (Table 10.2).

Table 10.2 Print/electronic Publisher subscription income TOTAL Print Electronic bundle from learned journals by format £m £m £m £m (net invoiced value) 2012 800 65 605 130

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 837 60 657 121 2014 876 53 707 116 2015 905 52 758 95 % change in income 2013/2012 +4.6 -9.0 +8.6 -6.9 2014/2013 +4.6 -11.4 +7.7 -4.2 2015/2014 +3.4 -2.2 +7.2 -17.7

2015/2012 +13.1 -21.1 +25.4 -26.6

Electronic journals accounted for 84% of subscription income in 2015, up from 81% in 2014 and 76% in 2012. While print retained its share of 6% between 2014 and 2015, it was lower than in 2013 and 2012 (Figure 10.2).

Figure 10.2 Share of subscription income 100% by format 14 13 11 90% 16

80% Print/electronic bundle 70%

Electronic 60%

50% 76 78 81 84 Print 40%

30%

20%

10% 8 7 6 6 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015

84 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Total journal sales 11 Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing

Rights and coeditions review by Lynette Owen, copyright and rights consultant

Total income from photocopying, scanning and digital licensing of extracts by Sarah Faulder, chief executive, Publishers Licensing Society (PLS)

ights and coeditions income in 2015 saw an overall increase of 7% over 2014, R although this figure is to some extent affected by changes in the roster of participating publishers and the implications of some company acquisitions (for publishers participating from year to year, the rise was 8%). The 2015 figures indicate an ongoing recovery in licensing business since a significant fall in revenue in 2013, a welcome development despite continuing trading difficulties in some markets.

Income from arm’s length licences (in English and in foreign languages) has continued to increase, while revenue from coedition sales has continued to fall, despite an increase in deals for adult non-fiction titles. Revenue from foreign language licences fell by 10% from 2014, although income from licences to Japan, Italy, Spain and Latin America all increased, and sales to Brazil remained steady despite economic problems in that market. English language reprint rights and coeditions saw a recovery in the US and Canadian ©© 7% to £173m markets, and also in the UK despite the decline in the book club and condensation markets. Gross receipts from rights and coeditions There was a significant increase (29%) over 2014 in income from electronic licences, with the majority of this revenue generated by the academic and professional sector. This sector ©© 15% to £134m also saw a 50% increase in permissions revenue. Gross receipts from rights As in previous years, figures were also provided by 48 authors’ agents, representing ªª 14% to £39m approximately 70% of the membership of the Association of Authors’ Agents. Gross receipts from Their submissions indicate that 49% of revenue is generated by translation licences coeditions and 29% by US licences.

©© to 78% While PLS total distributions to publishers for the year ending 31 March 2015 were down Rights share of income by just under 5%, to £34m, the underlying trend remains positive. Distributions for the previous year were inflated by various one-off payments explained in the footnote to ªª 5% to £34m Table 11.10. PLS distributable income from all sources During the year, the Copyright Licensing Agency (CLA) concluded a new six-year agreement with the Department for Education for licensing copying in schools. While there is a break clause at four years, this long‑term deal provides as much certainty as is possible for the foreseeable future, a significant achievement given the current pressures on public spending. It also provides an important precedent for other licence negotiations currently in hand.

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 85 The modest reduction in revenue for the further education sector reflects the continuing difficulties in licensing as further education faces its own severe funding issues. In contrast, the apparent drop in higher education income is accounted for entirely by the additional one-off payment in the previous year.

The NHS revenue was improved as a result of the conclusion of an agreement with NHS Scotland after its initial resistance to licensing its secondary use of published content.

Business licensing revenue includes the first full year of the Newspaper Licensing Agency (NLA) licensing of some magazines. While it took the full year to ramp up such licensing, the performance from this sector is expected to be much stronger next year.

86 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing For 2015, Roger Watson collected data on publishers’ income from rights and coeditions, on behalf of The Publishers Association. In this survey there were 30 respondents in 2015, which represented approximately 65% of the book sales of all UK publishers overall and in the two categories (consumer and non-consumer). It should be noted that the data which follows is based on the amalgamated responses of the participating companies only, and has not been grossed up to represent the industry as a whole. 11.1 Publisher gross income from coeditions and rights

The total gross income from rights and coeditions of the 30 respondents to the eighth PA survey on rights was £173m, an increase of 7% on 2014,23 but 2% lower than the equivalent figure for 2012 (Table 11.1). The increase in 2015 is influenced by the change in composition of the participants between 2014 and 2015; taking just those who participated in both years, the increase in rights income was 8%.

Table 11.1 TOTAL Coeditions Rights income Total gross receipts from rights £m £m £m and coeditions 2012 178 49 129

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding 2013 149 41 108 2014 162 45 116 NB: Participating publishers only 2015 173 39 134 % change in gross receipts 2013/2012 -15.9 -16.3 -15.8 2014/2013 +8.4 +10.9 +7.4 2015/2014 +7.1 -14.1 +15.4

2015/2012 -2.4 -20.3 +4.4

The share of income from rights has steadily increased from 72% in 2012 to 78% in 2015, while the share of coeditions has declined from 28% to 23% during this period (Figure 11.1).

Figure 11.1 Gross receipts: share of income 100%

90% 23 28 28 28 80% Coeditions 70%

Rights income 60%

NB: Participating publishers only 50%

40% 78 72 72 72 30%

20%

10%

0% 2012 2013 2014 2015

23 These percentage change figures are affected by changes in the composition of the participants between the years, combined with acquisition activity by the participants, which makes it difficult to estimate changes on a like‑for‑like basis.

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 87 11.2 Publisher gross income from rights and coeditions by type of right

The 7% increase in income from rights and coeditions to £173m, was due to a 27% increase in income from electronic, plus increases in English language reprints (12%) and permissions (35%), offset by a 10% drop in translations (Table 11.2). The largest share of gross income came from translations (38%), followed by electronic (23% ) and English language reprints (20%) (Figure 11.2).

Table 11.2 EL Other and Publisher gross receipts from TOTAL reprints Translations Permissions Electronic Serialisation unallocated Bilingual Media rights income by type of right £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m Rights 2012 129 29 29 29 31 1 4 3 3 2013 108 21 26 17 28 2 9 2 4 2014 116 22 36 13 32 1 6 2 4 2015 134 27 34 17 41 1 6 1 7 Coeditions 2012 49 5 43 - - - 1 - - 2013 41 5 32 - - - 3 - - 2014 45 9 36 - - - 3 - - 2015 39 8 31 - - - 2 - - Total 2012 178 33 72 29 32 1 5 3 3 2013 149 26 57 17 28 2 9 2 4 2014 162 31 73 13 32 1 9 2 4 2015 173 34 65 17 41 1 8 1 7 % changes in gross receipts Total 2013/2012 -15.9 -22.2 -19.8 -43.0 -10.0 +41.2 +133.3 -4.6 +58.9 2014/2013 +8.4 +18.2 +25.7 -22.5 +14.6 -29.3 -29.1 +2.1 -9.7 2015/2014 +7.1 +11.6 -10.4 +35.4 +26.9 -34.2 -2.2 -46.7 +100.1

2015/2012 -2.4 +3.0 -9.7 -41.4 +28.1 -34.3 +61.7 -48.1 +187.10

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding NB: Participating publishers only

Figure 11.2 100% 2 2 Rights and coeditions income: 4 3 3 4 2 2 5 9 2 2 type of right share 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 90% 5 6 2 18 24 20 Media 80% 23 28 19 27 30 70% Bilingual 17 8 11 10 60% 80 23 11 80 Other and unallocated 89 16 13 78 50% Serialisation 45 40% 41 40 38 23 32 Electronic 24 25 30%

Permissions 20%

23 20 20 20 20 20 Translations 10% 19 19 18 19 10 13 0% English language reprints 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rights Coeditions Total NB: Participating publishers only NB: due to rounding, some of % may not = 100%

88 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing 11.3 Publisher gross income from coeditions and rights by category of publication

Academic and professional had the largest share of combined income in 2015 with 33%, followed by children’s with 21%, adult fiction with 18% and adult non-fiction with 17% (Figure 11.3). 24 The overall increase in combined turnover (7%) is the result of increases in adult non-fiction (52%), academic and professional (29%) and adult fiction (9%), offset by decreases in the other categories (Table 11.3).

Table 11.3 Adult Adult Academic & Other and Publisher gross receipts from coeditions TOTAL fiction non‑fiction Children’s Reference Schools ELT professional unallocated and rights by category of publication £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m Rights 2012 129 27 6 9 10 5 9 47 16 2013 108 30 9 9 5 4 10 39 4 2014 116 28 9 17 5 5 7 44 2 2015 134 31 14 16 4 4 6 57 2 Coeditions 2012 49 0 8 12 28 0 0 0 1 2013 41 0 5 17 14 0 0 0 5 2014 45 0 10 22 10 0 0 0 3 2015 39 0 14 20 3 0 0 0 2 Total 2012 178 27 14 22 37 5 9 47 17 2013 149 30 13 26 20 4 10 39 8 2014 162 28 19 39 15 5 7 44 5 2015 173 31 29 36 6 4 6 57 4 % changes in gross receipts Total 2013/2012 -15.9 +8.9 -6.1 +18.6 -47.0 -28.9 +17.4 -17.7 -52.9 2014/2013 +8.4 -5.1 +41.7 +50.0 -22.8 +30.1 -32.1 +14.1 -41.1 2015/2014 +7.1 +9.1 +52.0 -6.4 -58.0 -8.5 -8.7 +29.0 -24.8

2015/2012 -2.4 +12.4 +102.1 +66.5 -82.8 -15.2 -27.3 +21.1 -6.1

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding NB: Participating publishers only Figure 11.3 Coeditions and rights income: 100% 1 3 3 3 2 2 7 6 6 category of publication share 12 11 9 (of gross receipts) 90% 7 27 23 26 Other and unallocated 80% 33 36 38 42 27

70% 37 56 35 Academic & professional 4 7 3 50 5 4 60% 2 2 6 3 10 4 ELT 9 5 4 13 50% 3 3 7 4 3 48 Schools 5 21 21 4 24 40% 8 15 12 8 17 Reference 8 42 30% 7 11 25 12 7 17 5 9 12 Children’s 20% 37 8 27 24 23 23 Adult non‑fiction 10% 21 20 17 15 17 18 11 0% Adult fiction 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rights Coeditions Total NB: Participating publishers only NB: due to rounding, some of % may not = 100%

24 The year-on-year changes in these categories were affected by changes in the reporting participants.

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 89 11.4 Publisher gross income from foreign language coeditions and rights by region

The total combined income from coeditions and rights, by region, decreased in 2015 by 10% from £73m to £65m. All areas decreased except for the relatively small markets in the Balkans and Central & East European (Table 11.4).

Table 11.4 West C & E Arabic/ Latin Other and Publisher gross receipts from combined TOTAL European Nordic Asian European Hebrew Balkan America unallocated coeditions and rights by region £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2012 72 37 7 10 6 1 2 2 8 2013 58 21 5 9 4 0 1 6 12 2014 73 30 5 12 3 0 1 6 16 2015 65 28 5 10 4 0 2 6 11 % change in gross receipts 2013/2012 -19.9 -42.1 -30.5 -13.2 -39.0 -42.9 -39.2 +193.1 +50.0 2014/2013 +25.7 +39.1 +11.9 +33.5 -5.8 +6.5 -22.8 +4.7 +33.3 2015/2014 -10.4 -6.8 -12.1 -18.5 +34.6 -14.8 +143.2 -3.6 -32.5

2015/2012 -9.8 -24.9 -31.5 -5.6 -22.7 -48.2 +14.1 +196.0 +29.8

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding NB: Participating publishers only

The West European region held the largest share in 2015 (43%) followed by Asian (15%) and Latin American (9%) (Figure 11.4).

Figure 11.4 Combined rights and 100% coeditions income: region share 12 17 (of gross receipts) 90% 21 22 3 3 Other and unallocated 80% 6 2 9 6 10 4 Balkan 70% 14 5 7 6 Latin America 60% 9 16 15 15 Arabic/Hebrew 50% 7 7 6 Central & East European 40%

30% Asian 51 41 43 20% 37 Nordic

10% Western European 0% NB: Participating publishers only 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB: due to rounding, some of % may not = 100%

90 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing 11.5 Publisher gross income from foreign language rights and coeditions by language

Only some publishers were able to supply detailed sales by language, nearly a third of the total being unallocated, so the individual language results need to be treated with caution. Overall foreign language rights declined by 10% and most individual languages declined: exceptions were Spanish (both Spain and Latin America versions), which grew by 34%, followed by Japanese (30%) and Italian (24%) (Table 11.5).

Table 11.5 – – Spanish – – – Portuguese – Japan- Other/ Income from rights and TOTAL French German ES LA Italian Dutch PT LA* Chinese ese Korean unalloc coeditions by language £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m Rights 2012 29 3 4 2 0 2 2 1 1 7 1 1 9 2013 26 2 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 10 2014 36 4 7 2 0 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 11 2015 34 3 4 3 0 2 1 1 1 4 3 1 10 Coeditions 2012 43 6 2 5 0 2 3 3 1 1 3 1 17 2013 32 5 0 2 2 1 2 0 3 0 2 1 14 2014 36 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 3 0 3 1 15 2015 31 5 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 0 2 1 11 Total 2012 72 9 7 6 0 3 5 4 1 3 4 2 26 2013 58 7 5 3 2 3 3 1 3 2 4 2 24 2014 73 9 9 4 1 3 3 2 3 5 4 3 27 2015 65 8 6 5 2 3 3 2 4 4 5 2 21 % change in gross receipts Total 2013/2012 -19.8 -25.2 -21.7 -55.2 +754.5 -27.6 -47.6 -83.1 +145.1 -32.7 -13.6 -5.2 -10.0 2014/2013 +25.7 +30.1 +69.1 +46.8 -31.2 +4.9 +18.0 +190.6 +19.2 +118.2 +8.6 +1.7 +13.8 2015/2014 -10.4 -12.3 -32.7 +34.2 +34.2 +23.8 -11.5 +5.2 -10.9 -3.5 +29.9 -30.8 -21.3

2015/2012 -9.8 -14.5 -10.8 -11.8 +689.3 -6.1 -45.3 -48.2 +160.5 +41.4 +21.9 -11.5 -21.5

*Licensed to Latin American publishers. NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding NB: Participating publishers only

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 91 Language shares were pretty evenly distributed, with French (12%), Spanish, combined Spain and Latin America versions (11%) and German (9%) being the largest (Figure 11.5).

Figure 11.5 Publisher income from rights and 100% coeditions: language share

90%

Other and unallocated 29 34 33 32 38 34 36 37 80% 39 42 41 41 Korean

Japanese 70% 3 2 4 2 3 2 34 2 Chinese 4 10 3 4 3 3 3 6 4 60% 3 8 5 18 3 2 5 6 6 Portuguese LA 6 4 6 3 12 5 20 2 19 23 8 7 4 7 12 2 8 1 6 50% 8 2 2 2 Portuguese PT 2 8 3 17 5 6 7 5 5 58 4 3 4 3 8 11 103 2 4 5 6 3 Dutch 40% 7 4 7 7 4 8 1 1 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 1 4 5 5 Italian 6 5 5 4 1 5 3 4 3 30% 1 1 2 4 4 3 9 45 5 11 419 404 6 38 Spanish LA 8 8 6 7 5 20% 18 5 6 5 9 12 Spanish ES 14 18 6 9 9 13 1 10% German 17 15 16 14 1319 18 19 20 10 11 12 12 12 7 8 French 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB: Participating publishers only Rights Coeditions Total NB: due to rounding, some of % may not = 100%

92 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing 11.6 Publisher gross income from English language reprints and coeditions

Income from English language reprints increased by 12% from £31m in 2014 to £34m in 2015, with a 24% increase in USA income. UK income reversed its fall of 51% in 2014, recovering to £5m in 2015, an increase of 89% (Table 11.6).

Table 11.6 USA UK (including Publisher gross receipts from English TOTAL and Canada book clubs) Other Unallocated language reprints and coeditions £m £m £m £m £m

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding Reprints 2012 29 18 4 3 3 NB: Participating publishers only 2013 21 12 5 2 2 2014 22 14 2 3 3 2015 27 20 4 1 2 Coeditions 2012 5 4 1 0 0 2013 5 4 1 0 0 2014 9 8 1 0 0 2015 8 7 1 0 0 Total 2012 33 22 5 3 3 2013 26 17 6 2 2 2014 31 21 3 3 3 2015 34 27 5 1 2 % changes in gross receipts Total 2013/2012 -22.2 -23.2 +6.6 -31.7 -54.3 2014/2013 +18.2 +28.4 -51.0 +64.9 +107.3 2015/2014 +11.6 +23.5 +89.0 -71.1 -51.0

2015/2012 +2.6 +21.7 -1.3 -68.2 -53.5

The USA and Canada share increased from 70% to 77% in 2015 (Figure 11.6).

Figure 11.6 100% English language reprints, coeditions 4 7 6 10 6 10 and rights: share (of gross receipts) 11 14 11 14 3 90% 4 18 10 21 8 9 11 16 10 16 80% 15 Unallocated 16 22 9 70% 15 23 8 Other 60%

50% UK (including book clubs) 89 86 40% 79 82 75 77 70 USA and Canada 65 30% 63 60 62 64

NB: Participating publishers only. 20%

10%

0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rights Coeditions Total

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 93 11.7 Publisher gross income from rights by type of right and category of publication

Overall rights income increased in 2015 by 15% to £134m, an increase of 15%. Adult non-fiction saw the biggest increase (67%), followed by academic and professional (29%) and adult fiction (9%) (Table 11.7).

Table 11.7 Adult Adult Academic Income from rights by type of right TOTAL fiction non‑fiction Children’s Reference Schools ELT & professional and category of publication £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m EL reprints 2013 21 9 2 3 1 0 2 1 2014 22 10 3 3 0 1 1 2 2015 21 14 4 4 0 1 1 2 Translations 2013 26 7 6 3 1 1 0 7 2014 36 9 3 9 4 1 0 6 2015 34 7 6 9 3 1 1 6 Permissions 2013 17 0 0 0 0 2 1 10 2014 13 1 0 0 0 3 1 8 2015 17 0 0 0 0 2 1 12 Electronic 2013 28 2 0 0 1 0 4 20 2014 32 2 0 0 0 0 2 27 2015 41 1 0 0 0 0 2 36 Other/unallocated 2013 17 3 2 1 0 0 3 1 2014 13 6 2 4 0 0 3 1 2015 16 8 4 3 1 0 1 0 Total 2013 108 30 9 9 5 4 10 39 2014 116 28 9 17 5 5 7 44 2015 134 31 14 16 4 4 6 57 % changes in gross receipts Total 2014/2013 +7.4 -5.1 -0.7 +97.8 -9.5 +30.1 -32.1 +14.1 2015/2014 +15.4 +9.1 +67.0 -3.0 -26.4 -8.5 -8.7 +29.0

2015/2013 +24.0 +3.5 +65.6 +91.9 -33.4 +19.1 -38.1 +47.1

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding NB: Participating publishers only

94 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing The largest share, overall, by type of right, in 2015, was for electronic (30%), followed by translations (25%) and English language reprints (20%). By category of publication, in 2015, the largest share for adult fiction came from English language reprints (46%), translations provided the biggest share for adult non-fiction (42%), children’s (53%) and reference (72%), while schools’ largest share came from permissions (57%) and electronic produced the largest share for ELT (38%) and academic and professional (64%) (Figure 11.7).

Figure 11.7 Income from rights: share of type 2013 32 25 1 5 37 by category of publication Adult fiction 2014 35 33 2 8 21

2015 46 22 1 5 26 Other and unallocated 2013 27 24 2 1 46

Adult non-fiction 2014 38 38 1 23 Electronic 2015 30 42 2 1 25

Permissions 2013 37 37 2 2 22 Children’s 2014 18 55 2 25

Translations 2015 25 53 2 19

2013 16 14 1 28 42 English language reprints Reference 2014 5 87 4 2 3

2015 2 72 21 23 NB: Participating publishers only NB: due to rounding, some of % may not = 100% 2013 10 21 46 2 22

School 2014 14 19 56 1 10

2015 16 16 57 5 6

2013 15 2 14 41 28

ELT 2014 14 3 9 35 39

2015 9 12 21 38 20

2013 4 17 25 53 2 Academic & 2014 5 14 18 62 1 professional 2015 3 11 22 64 1

2013 19 24 15 26 16

Total 2014 19 31 11 28 11

2015 20 25 13 30 12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 95 11.8 Publisher income from coeditions by type of right and category of publication

Overall, coedition income declined by 14% in 2015 from £45m to £39m, an increase in adult non‑fiction income of 39% being offset by declines in all the other categories. Translations dominates this analysis with 80% of the total income, 80% for adult non-fiction, 83% for children’s, and 97% for reference (Table 11.8).

Table 11.8 Adult Other and Income from coeditions by type of right TOTAL non‑fiction Children’s Reference unallocated and category of publication £m £m £m £m £m

NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding Translations 2013 32 3 14 13 2 NB: Participating publishers only 2014 36 8 17 10 2 2015 31 11 16 3 1 USA 2013 4 0 1 1 1 2014 8 2 3 0 1 2015 7 3 3 0 1 Other/unallocated 2013 5 2 2 0 0 2014 1 0 1 0 1 2015 1 0 1 0 0 Total 2013 41 5 17 14 5 2014 45 10 22 10 3 2015 39 14 20 3 2 % changes in gross receipts Total 2014/2013 +10.9 +121.5 +26.1 -27.8 -34.3 2015/2014 -14.1 +39.3 -9.1 -72.7 -28.2

2015/2013 +4.7 +208.5 +14.7 -80.3 -35.1

Figure 11.8 Income from coeditions: share of 2013 57 9 1 35 type by category of publication Adult non-fiction 2014 76 24

2015 80 20 Other and unallocated 2013 81 8 6 5

Children’s 2014 78 16 4 2 Other EL, including UK book clubs 2015 83 14 3

USA 2013 91 9 Reference 2014 97 3

Translations 2015 97 3

2013 64 36 NB: Participating publishers only NB: due to rounding, some of % may not = 100% Other 2014 52 48 2015 30 47 24

2013 78 11 2 9

Total 2014 80 17 21

2015 80 17 3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

96 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing 11.9 Authors’ agent income from rights

The total picture of rights income from publishing is not complete without information from authors and their agents. Therefore The PA commissioned a survey of the members of the Association of Authors’ Agents (AAA) at the same time. The consolidated total of rights income collected from the 48 respondents was £107m in 2015. This total is estimated to represent about 70% of the potential income from all 95 members of the AAA, which suggests a potential overall total of about £153m, excluding their UK income 25 (Table 11.7).

Table 11.9 All other Agent income by categories rights TOTAL USA Translations income NB: % changes calculated prior to rounding NB: Participating agents only £m £m £m £m 2012 135 29 76 31 2013 140 32 93 15 2014 129 37 68 24 2015 107 37 52 17 % change 2013/2012 +3.7 +10.2 +23.3 -98.5 2014/2013 -8.1 +17.1 -27.3 +60.0 2015/2014 -17.3 -0.6 -23.9 -29.1

2015/2012 -20.7 +27.6 -31.6 -45.2

Figure 11.9 shows that, in 2015, the largest share of income came from translations with 49%, followed by the USA (29%) and all other income (16%).

Figure 11.9 Agent income: category share 100% 11 18 16 90% 23

80% All other income 70% Translations 60% 49 66 53 USA 50% 56

NB: Participating agents only. 40%

30%

20% 35 29 10% 21 23

0% 2012 2013 2014 2015

25 See Technical Appendix for further information.

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 97 11.10 Other secondary rights income distributed by the Publishers Licensing Society (PLS)

The total income from licensing secondary copying distributed by PLS to over 3,300 mandated publishers was £34m in 2014 – 15, a decrease of 5% on 2013/14, but remains higher than in 2010 – 11, 2011 – 12 and 2012 – 13 during the five‑year period (Table 11.10).

Table 11.10 Publisher total income from UK photocopying, scanning and Further Higher Document digital licensing of extracts (PLS) TOTAL* Schools education education Business Delivery Government NHS International Year £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m 2010 – 11 33 4 3 4 8 1 2 1 9 2011 – 12 30 5 3 4 8 0 1 1 7 2012 – 13 33 5 3 5 9 0 1 1 9 2013 – 14 ** 35 5 2 5 12 1 2 1 6 2014 – 15 34 6 2 5 11 0 1 1 6 % changes in distributable revenue 2011 – 12/2010 – 11 -8.4 +9.1 -10.7 +4.0 -8.6 -29.4 -26.2 -19.3 -20.0 2012 – 13/2011 – 12 +12.3 +4.1 +5.4 +4.9 +16.2 -2.2 -18.8 +8.7 +28.6 2013 –14/2012 – 13 +5.5 +2.3 -13.5 +18.3 +35.9 +3.9 +87.2 +0.2 -33.7 2014 – 15/2010 – 11 -4.8 +17.7 -4.0 -9.9 -8.3 -35.1 -36.2 +4.7 -0.7

2014 – 15/2010 – 11 +1.8 +36.8 -21.9 +16.2 +33.3 -53.5 -28.4 -8.0 -32.3

NB: % changes calculated before rounding. * These figures reflect distributions by sector excluding the re-allocation of PLS and CLA surplus administration fees. ** PLS distributed a further non-title specific sum of £701,000 to publishers in addition to the monies collected from the licensing sectors shown above and distributed in 2013/14. This additional sum represented historic collections from various sources for which CLA has been awaiting data that never materialised.

Figure 11.10 shows the year‑on‑year change in total PLS distributable revenue.

Figure 11.10 PLS distributable revenue 36 year‑on‑year 35 35 34 34 33 33 33

32 £m 31

30 30 29

28

27 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

98 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing Figure 11.11 illustrates that total combined education (schools, further education and higher education) still remains the largest source of licensing income 39% in 2014/15 followed by business 34% and international 18%.

Figure 11.11 PLS distributable income: 100% source share 90% 17 18 24 27 27 International 3 80% 4 6 4 4 NHS 3 1 70% 4 5 4 6 2 3 1 Government 2 60% UK Document Delivery 34 26 35 50% 27 26 Business 40% Higher education 15 14 30% 14 Further education 13 15

20% 9 7 Schools 9 8 7

10% 18 NB: % calculated before rounding. 14 16 15 15 0% 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 99 100 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Rights, coeditions and secondary licensing 12 Book production and the environment

Review by Peter Hughes, director of sustainability, Pearson

ooking back, 2015 could well be seen as a seminal year for the green agenda. L Without any doubt, the highlight was the COP 21 agreement on climate change in Paris. From a business perspective, the long‑term policy framework agreed in Paris offers stability against which companies can plan, invest and make major decisions.

For publishers, climate change and its impact on forests and the environment around us ©© 15% to 303,363 are hugely significant. Even in today’s world, where publishers are doing more and more tonnes online, print is still hugely important and continues to grow in many areas. Total output We have also seen a resurgence in interest in how companies use timber. Most notably, the ©© 19% to 293,039 WWF Forest Campaign sought to encourage responsible forest trade as well as to influence tonnes government at a UK and EU level to cut out the trade in illegal and unsustainable timber. from known sources Responsible paper purchasing is a long‑standing priority for publishers, and remains a focus for The PA. Our annual review this year reconfirmed an established improving trend ªª 45% to 10,323 as publishers reported an increase in overall output as well as an absolute and relative tonnes reduction in the percentage share of output coming from unknown sources to just 3%. from unknown sources Encouraging and supporting responsible forest management by publishers is now business ©© to 97% as usual. An important component of the progress made is PREPS – the Publishers Share of total output database for Responsible Environmental Paper Sourcing. There are 23 leading publishers from known sources participating in PREPS, who work together on responsible paper purchasing. The PREPS database includes information on the country of origin of the wood fibre and how forest sources have been managed. Labelling is well established and publishers are setting their own standards based on the PREPS system.

At an EU level, The PA added its voice to the call for printed material to be brought within the scope of new illegal logging regulations.

The PA Environmental Review Group acts as a forum for publishers to connect over developments across the green agenda. The group includes representatives from the Booksellers Association and printers to ensure a joined‑up approach.

For 2015, the group has worked closely with the Publishers Green Network, a grass roots organisation, on its plans to relaunch and engage more people from publishing in furthering green issues.

Book production and the environment | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 101 102 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Book production and the environment For the eighth year running, The Publishers Association collected data on book production from UK publishers. It should be noted that the data that follows is based on the amalgamated responses of the participating companies only, and has not been grossed up to represent the industry as a whole. 12.1 Publisher purchase and specification of paper

60% of the respondents purchased their paper through their printer only, and the remaining 40% purchased their paper both direct and via their printer. 100% of the respondents who purchased their paper direct, and 92% who purchased their paper via their printer, always or sometimes specified that this should be paper from known sources 26 (Figure 12.1).

Figure 12.1 Publisher specification of paper as 100% 8 being sustainable 90% 8 80% No 70% Sometimes 60% Yes 50% 100 84 NB: Based on 25 respondents representing 40% 43 publishing houses. 30%

20%

10%

0% Direct Via printer

12.2 Publisher use of accreditation scheme logos

76% of the respondents who produce output on paper from known sources included a logo belonging to an accreditation scheme on or inside their titles during 2015. Of these, 79% used the FSC logo only (Figure 12.2).

Figure 12.2 Publisher use of accredited logos 5% 5% FSC only 5%

FSC and PEFC 5%

FSC and Recycled Mobius

FSC, PEFC and Recycled Mobius

PEFC and Other 79%

NB: Based on 19 respondents representing 37 publishing houses.

26 FSC/PECF/100%post-consumer waste recycled paper/Preps grade 3 paper.

Book production and the environment | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 103 12.3 Publisher output of paper

Around 70% of the respondents to this survey were able to provide output by weight and it has been possible to show the results of these respondents over the past five years. Total output of these respondents increased by 15% to 303,363 tonnes, with the proportion on paper from known sources rising from 93% in 2014 to 97% in 2015 (Table 12.3).

It has been possible to extract from the survey that 62% of book production paper from known sources in 2015 was on FSC-certified paper, and a further 36% was on paper from legal and known forestry sources (these can include forest‑certified according to FSC, PEFC and SFI standards). 27 0.02% was classed as post‑consumer waste recycled paper; however, this underestimates the overall use of recycled fibres as they are prevalent in a wide variety of papers that may not necessarily be classed as fully recycled.

Table 12.3 TOTAL Tonnes from known Tonnes from % share of tonnes Comparison of total output by tonnes sources unknown sources from known sources weight produced on paper from 2011 258,641 226,120 32,521 87.4 known and unknown sources 2012 253,280 221,829 31,451 87.6

NB: Based on 17 respondents representing 2013 276,002 263,258 12,744 95.4 35 publishing houses. 2014 264,499 245,624 18,875 92.9 2015 303,363 293,039 10,324 96.6 % change in tonnes 2012/2011 -2.1 -1.9 -3.3 2013/2012 +9.0 +18.6 -59.5 2014/2013 -4.2 -6.7 +48.1 2015/2014 +14.7 +19.3 -45.3

2015/2011 +17.3 +29.6 -68.3

Figure 12.3 shows that publishers have increased their output on paper from known sources from 87% in 2011 to 97% in 2015.

Figure 12.3 Output: known and 100% 5 8 3 unknown shares 13 12 90%

80% Output on sustainable paper 70%

Output on unsustainable paper 60%

50% 97 95 93 NB: Based on 17 respondents representing 87 88 35 publishing houses. 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

27 Papers that are not fully FSC or PEFC certified, however, contain wood that comes from forests certified according to FSC and PEFC standards.

104 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Book production and the environment A Technical appendix

The data in Sections 1– 9 of the PA Statistics Yearbook are based on The Publishers Association’s ongoing Publishers Association Sales Monitor (PASM) data collection scheme, which records the physical and digital book sales of publishers who are estimated to account for around three‑quarters of total UK publisher sales.

The data from PASM have been applied to the results of a one‑off Benchmarking Exercise conducted in 2005 in order to calculate a base total for all UK publishers. In addition, data collected from The Publishers Association’s annual Publisher Discounts survey are used to help derive the UK book market size estimates provided in Section 2.3. Separate studies collect the data on UK Publisher Journal sales (Section 10), Rights income (Section 11) and Book production (Section 12).

This technical appendix provides details of these surveys, and of the processes involved in deriving the figures shown in this Yearbook.

A1 PASM

In 2000, The PA replaced its annual survey of members with the PASM scheme, which involves collecting sales data from distributors and large publishers on a monthly or quarterly basis. The PASM scheme is administered by Nielsen Book Research.

Physical sales

PASM participants provide Nielsen Book Research with a detailed breakdown of net unit and invoiced value sales of physical books for the latest calendar month and for the calendar year to date (including sales for the equivalent periods in the previous year). For reporting purposes, the data supplied are split into Home and Export sales, and within these destinations into six broad and 10 more detailed categories and – for exports by value – seven geographical regions used throughout the PA Statistics Yearbook. Data are amalgamated, thereby avoiding revealing the sales pattern and performance of any company.

The number of distributors/publishers providing physical book sales figures for PASM has gradually increased over time, with more than 20 companies, representing c270 publishers and over 75% of sales, supplying data in 2015.

Technical appendix | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 105 Digital sales

Since 2008, PASM has been extended to collect UK monthly publisher sales of digital book products. All companies participating in PASM, as well as additional PA members, are invited to provide digital sales figures for the latest and previous year, broken down into broad category and format. From 2014, participants were also asked to split their digital sales into UK versus overseas (i.e. based on location of end user, not merely the location – for invoicing purposes – of ebook retailers).

For the purposes of this data collection, digital sales are defined as follows:

ebooks, audiobook downloads, downloads of all/part of books, subscriptions/access to online book publications, and any other wholly digital material delivered online or via CD‑Rom. Subscriptions/access to online journals or journal product should not be included where it is possible to make the distinction between book and journal material, as journal products are outside the remit of the PASM scheme.

Sales of all other book products/formats, i.e. printed books and maps in hardback, paperback and other bindings (including print‑on‑demand); books on tape or CD (physical audiobooks); and combined book and physical audiobook products should be excluded.

Sales of products that combine both digital and other book products/formats (as defined above) should be included in the data on this form where the value of the product is principally in the digital component (i.e. where the other element is supplementary to that concept). Conversely, where the non‑digital component of a combined product is the principal element (and the digital component supplementary to that concept), then sales of the product should be excluded.

It should be borne in mind that the participants of the PASM scheme, and the universe of total digital sales recorded in this Yearbook, represent the traditional publishing sector. Sales of self‑published titles, books published by Amazon and from new digital‑only media companies are not currently included in PASM, and may not be represented in these figures.

A2 2005 Benchmarking Exercise: estimating total book sales of UK publishers

Physical sales estimates

A Benchmarking Exercise was undertaken by Nielsen Book Research (then BML) on behalf of The PA in 2005, which sought to estimate the book sales of all UK publishers. This involved collecting sales data on a one‑off basis from as many as possible UK publishers not already contributing to PASM, whose sales were added to the PASM figures. Additionally, estimates were made of sales for any other UK publishers using a combination of financial accounts information, and data supplied by The PA and Independent Publishers Guild (IPG) showing how their memberships segmented by turnover band.

These figures provided the benchmark to which the PASM growth rates recorded for subsequent years have been applied, thereby providing estimates of total UK publisher sales for these subsequent years and, in the case of this Yearbook, for the 2011 –15 period.

106 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Technical appendix Digital sales estimates

Total digital book sales of UK publishers in 2014 have been mainly calculated by applying growth rates in digital sales from participating publishers – by broad category – to estimates of digital sales included in the 2013 and 2014 Yearbooks. These 2013 estimates were, in turn, calculated by looking at the proportion of total UK publisher sales of physical books accounted for by those providing digital sales figures, and grossing up the recorded digital sales accordingly. Year-on-year growth rates in digital sales from 2010 –13 were used to calculate approximate total UK publisher digital sales figures for 2010 –12. Historical figures have, in a few cases, been slightly revised ion this Yearbook, reflecting revisions in the figures provided by some participants.

A3 Publisher Discounts survey: calculating the size of the UK physical book market

The figures from PASM and the Benchmarking Exercise allow estimates to be made of UK publisher sales of books at invoiced prices. These are also used as the basis for estimating the size of the UK physical book market at end purchaser prices (see Section 2.3 of the Yearbook).

In order to help calculate the UK market size, Nielsen Book Research – on behalf of The PA – undertakes an annual Publisher Discounts survey. This asks PASM participants to provide the average discount on RRP offered by publishers to retailers, wholesalers, library suppliers, etc in the UK market, for physical sales in each of three sectors: consumer/trade, school/ELT and academic/professional.

In order to estimate the total value of the market at end purchaser prices, provision also needs to be made for the discounts subsequently offered by retailers, wholesalers, library suppliers, etc, to the end customer for each book. Data from Nielsen Bookscan (showing the difference between RRP and average selling price on books sold through retail and online booksellers), are used to calculate these end‑customer discounts.

Estimates of imports of books into the UK from non‑UK publishers are added to the figures derived from the discounting equations, while estimates of sales of UK bookseller exports (i.e. where books invoiced in the UK as publisher home sales are actually sold outside the UK) are subtracted. Calculations of these imports and exports are based on those used in The PA’s Book Trade Yearbook series. Details of the calculations used are shown in Table A3.

Technical appendix | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 107 Table A3 Derivation of UK book market size Publisher Minus Publisher’s Discount Sales at end 2014 –15 invoiced sales bookseller discount Sales to end purchaser Plus to UK market* exports** on RRP*** at RRP purchaser# prices imports** 2014 £m £m % £m % £m £m Fiction 247 240 64.3 672 26.1 496 528 Non‑fiction/reference 486 471 64.3 1,321 26.1 976 1,039 Children’s 226 221 64.3 621 26.1 459 488 School/ELT 169 169 35.5 262 11.9 231 231 Academic/professional 379 334 38.5 542 13.8 467 607

TOTAL 1,507 1,435 58.0 3,417 23.0 2,630 2,893

2015 £m £m % £m % £m £m Fiction 251 243 63.1 661 25.8 490 521 Non‑fiction/reference 537 521 63.1 1,414 25.8 1,049 1,116 Children’s 216 212 63.1 575 25.8 427 454 School/ELT 186 186 37.7 299 8.9 273 273 Academic/professional 367 323 38.5 525 12.9 457 594

TOTAL 1,558 1,486 57.2 3,474 22.4 2,695 2,957 * see Table 2.1b ** assumptions based on Book Trade Yearbook 2000 (The Publishers Association, 2000) *** as recorded by the 2014 and 2015 Publisher Discounts surveys # based on data from Nielsen BookScan A4 PA surveys of rights income

Publisher survey

Since 2004, Roger Watson of Statistics Education, on behalf of The Publishers Association, has collected publishers’ income from rights and coeditions, initially every other year, and now annually, to remedy the gap in our understanding of the true scale of UK publishers’ rights income and its constituent elements.

The same questionnaire that has been used for each of the surveys was used for 2015 data. This questionnaire was mailed, with a covering letter, to all those who had completed returns for 2013, plus a selection of other publishers, in the hope of expanding the coverage.

In total, 30 publishers’ imprints completed the 2015 surveys. Imprints have been counted rather than publishers, because practice varies, particularly between the larger groups; for instance, HarperCollins makes one composite return while Oxford University Press (OUP) makes four separate returns. The composition of the group was similar between the two years but not identical: four imprints dropped out and three imprints were added. There were also some inconsistencies between the two years in individual returns, making it difficult to calculate increases and declines on a like‑for‑like basis.

108 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Technical appendix Survey of authors’ agents

Income from the sale of rights is generally split between authors and their agents on the one hand and publishers. For some types of publishing, the author’s share will go direct to the author or more probably the author’s agent. The income that accrues to publishers will usually be split with authors in proportions that are laid out in the publishing agreement. The total picture of rights income from publishing would therefore involve pooling information collected by publishers with information from authors and their agents.

In cooperation with the Association of Authors’ Agents (AAA), Roger Watson sent out a simplified survey to all of their members to collect their 2015 income. As in 2014, UK income was included in the survey questionnaire, but has been excluded from the figures reported here, to avoid double counting with the parallel survey of publishers. Agents were asked to report the total of income received, not their commission on that income.

In total, 48 agents completed the 2015 survey. These 48 respondents represent 51% of the membership but a much larger percentage of the potential income from all agents. The AAA divides its membership into five subscription categories (A to E), A being the highest level of subscription.

The returns are heavily biased towards the higher subscription levels. The ratios of respondents to all AAA members in these bands are: A (83%), B (89%), C (53%), D (100%), E (36%). The three higher subscription bands account for 90% of the total rights income collected.

It is therefore reasonable to estimate that the total collected will be at least 80% of the potential income from all members of the AAA, excluding their UK income.

A5 PA Journal Statistics Scheme

In July 2013, The Publishers Association started a new annual survey of the members of The PA’s Serial Publishers Executive (SPE) to find out UK publishers’ turnover from learned journals. The questionnaire asked for data on total sales by format (print, electronic, print/electronic bundle) and by type of income (subscription, advertising and other non-subscription income). As it was a new scheme, the first survey started with figures from 2011 and 2012. This survey was repeated in 2014, but as there were new participants in this second survey and a change to the questionnaire to extract the figures for open access article publishing charges from other non-subscription income, only the two years (2012 and 2013) covered by this second survey have been included in this Yearbook.

In 2015, it was decided to bring the figures into line with the rest of the Yearbook, and two surveys were conducted to collect 2014 and 2015 figures since the last edition of the Yearbook. The participating SPE members account for 70% of journals published by UK-based entities. The same set of members contributed figures for previous years, thereby providing a like‑for‑like comparison.

Technical appendix | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 109 B Exchange rate appendix

Exchange rate changes affecting book exporters by Dr Frank Fishwick, statistics consultant

B1 Recent history of exchange rate changes

Table B1 shows recent changes in exchange rates particularly relevant to book exporters. For the “book exports weighted index” changes between 2014 and 2015 are derived from rates with each of 34 currencies, which together accounted for 94% of UK exports of books in 2014. These are weighted by the value of exports of books in that year. The weighted average changes have then been applied to the series derived by a similar process in previous years.

Table B1 Exchange rates: 2000 –15 – – – Currency units per £ – – – Average for period shown US$ Ecu/euro Aus$ Bank of England index Book exports weighted index 2000 1.52 1.64 2.61 100.5 96.7 2005 1.82 1.46 2.39 100.0 100.0 2006 1.84 1.47 2.45 100.9 101.2 2007 2.00 1.46 2.39 103.3 104.0 2008 1.86 1.26 2.19 91.1 92.3 2009 1.57 1.13 1.99 80.6 81.3 2010 1.55 1.17 1.69 80.4 79.7 2011 1.60 1.15 1.55 80.0 79.0 2012 1.58 1.23 1.53 83.0 82.2 2013 1.56 1.18 1.60 80.7 81.8 2014 1.65 1.24 1.83 87.0 88.8 2015 1.53 1.38 2.03 91.5 94.8

2014 Q1 1.66 1.21 1.85 85.6 87.7 Q2 1.68 1.23 1.80 86.9 88.4 Q3 1.67 1.26 1.80 88.0 89.6 Q4 1.58 1.27 1.85 87.5 89.5

2015 Q1 1.52 1.35 1.93 89.4 92.1 Q2 1.53 1.39 1.97 91.3 94.1 Q3 1.55 1.39 2.14 92.9 96.8 Q4 1.52 1.39 2.11 92.2 96.2

2014 December 1.56 1.27 1.89 85.1 84.6

2015 December 1.50 1.38 2.07 88.3 88.4

110 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Exchange rate appendix In Table B1 the index is compared with that for sterling published by the Bank of England (BOE), in which exchange rate changes are weighted by the importance of trade (imports and exports) with each country or group of countries using the relevant currency. Values of the BOE index have been taken from the Bank’s current website and take account of revisions in methods of construction.

Divergence between the two indices is mainly explained by the greater representation of the euro in the Bank of England index (47.3% compared with 40.6% in the book-exports-weighted index); and for the US dollar (weights of 17.8% and 14.2% respectively). Another major difference is the greater representation in the book-exports index of current or former Commonwealth countries outside Europe, particularly Australia, which in 2015 accounted for 8.6% of the index for book exports, but had a weight of only 1.6% in the BOE index.

Figure B1 compares the two indices quarterly from 2005 to 2015.

Figure B1 Exchange rate indices: Book‑exports‑weighted and Bank of England since 2005

110.0

105.0

100.0

95.0

90.0

Index 2005 average = 100 Books 85.0 Bank of England

80.0

75.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year and quarter

An evident feature of this graph is the very close correlation between the two indices. This is due mainly to parallel changes in sterling exchange rates against other currencies. Only since mid-2013 has there been any consistent divergence between the BOE index and that relating to exports of books. This divergence is due almost entirely to a rise in the sterling versus Australian dollar rate, which rose by nearly 46% between the second quarter of 2013 and the final quarter of 2015. The fall in the Australian dollar is closely correlated with the fall in commodity prices: statistical analysis of quarterly data for 2005 to 2015 from the Reserve Bank of Australia shows that over 72% of the exchange rate changes can be explained by those in commodity prices. The prices of commodities are very sensitive to changes in world economic growth, currently the subject of much uncertainty.

Exchange rate appendix | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 111 Analysis of quarterly averages does not capture the short-term volatility of exchange rates. Three areas – the Euro zone, the USA and Australian – took nearly 60% of UK exports of books. Table B2 shows the maximum and minimum values of exchange rates with these three areas during 2015.

Table B2 Maximum and minimum values of exchange rates Maximum Date Minimum Date Euro 1.440 17 July 2015 1.273 6 January 2015 US dollar 1.558 19 June 2015 1.464 13 April 2015 Australian dollar 2.204 7 September 2015 1.843 16 January 2015

B2 The likely evolution of exchange rates over the next year

In July 2015 the IMF estimated that sterling was “overvalued” by between 5 and 15% and the widespread perception of overvaluation is confirmed by an expected deficit on the current account of the UK Balance of Payments of 4.5% of GDP, 28 one of the largest in the developed world. This has been sustained by capital inflows linked to foreign investment in the UK, but may not be tenable in the long term as interest and dividends on this investment will place an additional burden on the current account. Between mid-July 2015 and the first week in January 2016, the bank of England exchange rate index fell by 5% and rates for the US dollar ($1.45) and Australian dollar (A$2.09) at the end of the first week in January 2016 were close to most estimates of purchasing power parity; a similar comparison shows the euro to be undervalued against sterling and the two other currencies. 29

Traditional economics implies that in the long term exchange rates are determined by the need for a balance of payments on current account and the purchasing power parity principle is deduced from this. It would imply some depreciation of sterling during 2016, mainly through a fall against the euro. However, a number of problems complicate currency markets in 2016:

The downturn in the Chinese economy and the implications for commodity prices; The special factors influencing the oil price, including hostilities in the Middle East; Continuing imbalances affecting the euro, perhaps exacerbated by growing political difficulties; For the UK, additional uncertainty related to the coming referendum on membership of the EU; The possibility of competitive devaluations in response to slowing in the global economy.

It is reasonable to expect continuing or even increasing volatility in exchange rates, but it is not possible to predict medium-term changes with any accuracy, given the massive uncertainty prevalent at the time of writing.

28 The Economist 2 January 2016. 29 OECD figures imply a somewhat implausible rate of £1 = €1.09; the Economist “Big Mac” index implies £1 = €1.27.

112 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Exchange rate appendix C Trends in the UK school market by level of education

The PA’s Educational Publishers Council collects supply side statistics which records the sales of curriculum-related learning resources to schools in the UK, but not exclusively through the school channel. The figures represent an estimated 80% of UK educational publishers’ home turnover. The following data have been extracted from this scheme, which is separate to the PA Sales Monitor scheme outlined in A1, to give an insight into the trends within the UK school market by level of education. Please note that since 2013, assessment and revision guides have been included, so the figures are not directly comparable to 2011 and 2012.

C1 Total sales

In 2015 total sales (print and digital) of the educational publishers within the EPC Survey rose by 4% over 2014.

Figure C1 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related 180 learning resources to UK 14 8 school market 160 12 10 16 Vocational 140 78 120 74 Secondary 80 76 100 83

Primary £m 80

60

84 40 76 75 80 60 20

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Trends in the UK school market by level of education | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 113 C2 Primary sales

Primary sales in 2015 were 5% higher than in 2014, with a 2% increase in print and a 31% growth in digital.

Figure C2 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related 100 learning resources to primary schools

80

Total 60 Print £m Digital 40

20

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

C3 Secondary sales

Secondary sales increased by 5% in 2015, due to a 5% growth print sales and a 10% increase in digital.

Figure C3 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related 100 learning resources to secondary schools 80

Total 60 Print £m Digital 40

20

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

114 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | Trends in the UK school market by level of education C4 Vocational sales

Total vocation sales declined by 19% between 2014 and 2015, with a 22% drop in print sales. In contrast, there was a 21% increase in digital sales.

Figure C4 Publisher sales of curriculum‑related 20 learning resources to further education (vocational) colleges

15 Total

Print

Digital £m 10

5

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Trends in the UK school market by level of education | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 115 D UK higher education textbook market by category

The PA’s Academic Professional and Learning Publishers Council (APLPC), formerly the Academic and Professional Board, collects supply side statistics that record the sales of higher education textbooks to students and universities. The figures represent approximately 80% of UK academic publishers’ home turnover. The following data have been extracted from this scheme, which is separate to the PA Sales Monitor scheme outlined in A1, in order to give an insight into the UK higher education textbook market by category.

D1 Total sales

Total sales of the participating academic publishers within the APLPC Higher Education Textbook Survey fell by 5% between 2014 and 2015, and by 11% over the five‑year period.

Figure D1 Higher education textbook sales 100 by category 5 6 4 5 4 6 4 4 5 Other 9 80 9 15 4 12 11 Education 13 14 13 12 Creative arts / Languages / 60 12 Humanities

Human / Social sciences £m 37 34 33 33 40 30 Business / Economics / Law

Sciences / Engineering / Mathematics / IT 20 16 17 15 15 Medicine 15

10 10 11 10 9 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

116 PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 | UK higher education textbook market by category Preface | PA STATISTICS YEARBOOK 2015 117 UK £75.00

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