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Solar Market Development Volatility in New Jersey and Provides a Range of Potential Solutions to Mitigate It in the Future

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Solar Market Development Volatility in New Jersey and Provides a Range of Potential Solutions to Mitigate It in the Future SOLAR MARKET DEVELOPMENT VOLATILITY IN NEW JERSEY Prepared for the Rutgers University Center for Energy, Economic and Environmental Policy (CEEEP) May 2014 ABOUT THIS REPORT This research report was produced by Meister Consultants Group, Inc. (MCG) and Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC (SEA) for the Rutgers University Center for Energy, Economic and Environmental Policy (CEEEP) in support of its work for the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) on solar market development volatility. Supervision and Coordination Scott Hunter (BPU OCE), Frank Felder (CEEEP) Authors Andrew Belden (MCG), Tom Michelman (SEA), Robert Grace (SEA) and Kathryn Wright (MCG) Contributors Po-Yu Yuen (SEA), Wilson Rickerson (MCG), Jason Gifford (SEA) About Meister Consultants Group Meister Consultants Group (MCG) is an international, Boston-headquartered consulting firm specializing in energy policy and strategy development. MCG’s clients include state energy offices, local governments, regulators, national labs, and the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE). MCG has worked with clients around the world to design and implement renewable energy policies at the local, regional and national levels. By leveraging participation and dialogue tools, MCG creates sustainability and energy strategies to manage change for businesses, governments and institutions. About Sustainable Energy Advantage Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC (SEA) has been a national leader on renewable energy policy analysis and program design for 15 years. SEA has supported the decision‐making of more than 100 clients through the analysis of renewable energy policy, projects and markets. By providing market, policy, strategic and financial analyses and support, SEA helps its clients develop the building blocks of a sustainable energy future. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their contribution to this report: Shaun Chapman, Solar City Katie Bolcar Rever, Solar Energy Industries Mark Struk, Alpha Inception, LLC Association Lyle Rawlings, Mid-Atlantic Solar Energy Industries Felicia Thomas-Friel, New Jersey Rate Counsel Association (MSEIA) Andre Templeman, Alpha Inception, LLC James Spano, New Jersey Solar Grid Supply Neal Zislin, Renu Energy Association LIST OF ACRONYMS ACE - Atlantic City Electric ACP - Alternative Compliance Payment BGS - Basic Generation Service BPU - Board of Public Utilities CEFIA - Clean Energy Finance Investment Authority C-PACE - Commercial Property-Assessed Clean Energy CSI - California Solar Initiative EY - Energy Year GIS - Generation Information System ITC - Investment Tax Credit IOU - Investor Owned Utility JCP&L - Jersey Central Power & Light LSE - Load Serving Entity Mass DOER - Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources MSEIA - Mid-Atlantic Solar Energy Industries Association NYSERDA - New York State Energy Research and Development Authority OCE - New Jersey Office of Clean Energy PACE - Property-Assessed Clean Energy PV - Photovoltaic RECO - Rockland Electric Company REC - Renewable Energy Credit RFP - Request for Proposal RPS - Renewable Portfolio Standard SACP - Solar Alternative Compliance Payment SEIA - Solar Energy Industries Association SREC - Solar Renewable Energy Credit TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 SECTION 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1 Study Background and Scope ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 The New Jersey Solar Market ................................................................................................................................ 7 SECTION 2 Solar Market Development Volatility ........................................................................................................ 11 2.1 Solar Market Development Volatility Definition ............................................................................................. 11 2.2 New Jersey Solar Market Performance ............................................................................................................ 12 2.3 Market Development Volatility Drivers ........................................................................................................... 22 2.4 Volatility Mitigants in The New Jersey Solar Market ................................................................................... 30 SECTION 3 Example Incentive Models and New Jersey Policy Options............................................................. 32 3.1 Incentive Design Models and Solar Market Development Volatility ..................................................... 32 3.2 Example Policies...................................................................................................................................................... 36 3.3 Potential New Jersey Policy Options ................................................................................................................ 58 SECTION 4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 66 Bibliography….. .............................................................................................................................. …………………………………….68 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the past several years, New Jersey has consistently had one of the largest state solar markets in the United States and is currently ranked third nationally in total installed solar capacity. In New Jersey, solar installations are supported by a number of federal and state incentives, including an obligation on electricity Load Serving Entities (LSEs) to provide an increasing portion of the state’s total electricity consumption from in-state solar installations. This solar requirement within New Jersey’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has been critical to industry growth. The solar market has seen significant variation in installation rates over the last several years. In response to enhanced federal incentives, rapid decreases in solar installation costs and high prices in the New Jersey SREC market, the state saw a rapid increase in capacity additions during late 2011 and early 2012. These increases caused the market to substantially exceed the capacity needed to meet the legislatively established RPS schedule and led to SREC oversupply conditions. This supply-demand imbalance caused the price of the state’s SREC incentive to decline to levels that resulted in a slowdown in solar installations. In response to these developments, the New Jersey legislature passed the Solar Act of 2012, a comprehensive law intended to stabilize the solar market by increasing near-term RPS solar requirements and reducing the potential future impact of large PV systems on the market. In addition to these and other provisions, the Solar Act required the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) to “investigate approaches to mitigate solar development volatility.” This report has been commissioned by the BPU as part of that effort. The goals of this paper are to: Analyze previous performance of the New Jersey solar market with a specific focus on market development volatility, Identify potential future drivers and mitigants of solar development volatility, and Suggest potential policy options to encourage stable market growth based on models used in other states and internationally. As part of this process, the BPU solicited feedback from New Jersey solar stakeholders regarding how to define solar market development volatility and potential options for reducing potential future volatility. This stakeholder engagement included several rounds of public comment along with a public forum held in April 2014 at the Rutgers University Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. There was little consensus amongst stakeholders as to the definition of solar market development volatility. Given this, the authors of this paper have chosen to define solar market development volatility as significant and rapid changes in market capacity additions over time both in aggregate capacity and within sectors. New Jersey Solar Market Performance As mentioned above, the New Jersey solar market has seen significant changes in capacity additions over the past several years. Figure 1 below shows quarterly market capacity additions between 2008 and Q1 2014 based on administration data compiled as part of the SREC registration program. P a g e | 1 Figure 1. Quarterly New Jersey Solar Capacity Additions in kW (2008-Q1 2014) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 INSTALLED CAPCITY (KW) CAPCITY INSTALLED 40,000 20,000 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 As Figure 1 shows, the New Jersey market had a period of sustained growth between 2008 and 2010. The market had rapid growth during 2011 and the early part of 2012. This was followed by a period of decline in quarterly capacity additions over the remainder of 2012 and into 2013. As previously mentioned, these market dynamics have been influenced by changes to federal incentives, substantial declines in solar module costs and SREC price fluctuations reflecting supply and
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