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ECONOMIC NEWS & TRENDS March 3, 2017 ECONOMIC NEWS & TRENDS This nonconfidential edition includes excerpts from articles, studies, and economic research. The content focuses on trends and news during the third and fourth quarters of 2016. This report may be forwarded to others in your agency, the local chamber, and in your community. CONTENTS FIGURES HIGHLIGHTS. PAGE 2 FIGURE 1. GDP CHANGES OVER QUARTERS (2013–2016), PAGE 3 Section 1. U.S. ECONOMY, PAGE 3 FIGURE 2. UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 4Q2016, PAGE 5 Section 2. U.S. AUTO REPORT, PAGE 7 TABLES Section 3. TEXAS ECONOMY, PAGE 7 TABLE 1. PERCENT CHANGES IN CPI FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS 2016, PAGE 4 Section 4. RETAIL AND E-COMMERCE SALES AND TRENDS, PAGE 9 TABLE 2. U.S. HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS FOR 4Q2016, PAGE 5 Section 5. RESTAURANT NEWS AND SUPERMARKET TRENDS, PAGE 10 TABLE 3. ESTIMATED QUARTERLY REVENUE FOR SELECTED SERVICES FOR EMPLOYER FIRMS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FROM 3Q2016 TO Section 6. SELECTED REGIONAL REPORT, PAGE 12 4Q2016, PAGE 6 CLIENT TEAM, PAGE 12 TABLE 4. TEXAS HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS FOR 4Q2016, PAGE 8 TABLE 5. U.S RESTAURANT EXPANSION 2016, PAGE 11 For more information about MuniServices, visit: www.MuniServices.com or contact us at [email protected]. ECONOMIC NEWS & TRENDS March 3, 2017 HIGHLIGHTS U.S. GDP: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at U.S. median home sales price: In 4Q2016, the median asking an annual rate of 1.9 percent in 4Q2016, according to the sales price for vacant-for-sale units was $167,700. New “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic vehicles: U.S. auto sales rose to 17.5 million new cars, trucks, Analysis. In 3Q2016, real GDP increased 3.5 percent. SUVs, crossovers, and vans through December 2016. CPI: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers Used cars and trucks: The 3Q2016 closed with 9.8 million (CPI-U) increased 2.1 percent over the last 12 months vehicles sold in the U.S. used market, an increase of (December 2015–December 2016) to an index level of 3.3 percent over the previous year. Franchise used sales 241.432. showed a 2.6 percent decrease from 2015 because of fewer Personal income: Personal income increased $50.2 billion trade-ins at dealerships this year. The average age of retail (0.3 percent) in December 2016, according to estimates used vehicles sold during 3Q2016 was 4.0 years, down from released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable 4.3 years in 3Q2015. personal income (DPI) increased $43.6 billion (0.3 Texas economy: The Texas economy advanced from percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) November as the number of jobs increased by more than increased $63.1 billion (0.5 percent). 6,100 (seasonally adjusted). The service-providing sector Interest rates: The Federal Reserve raised the target carried December’s employment growth, mainly in the health, federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 0.50 education, and leisure industries, as well as the government percent and 0.75 percent in its December 2016 meeting. sector. The energy sector continued to improve as crude oil Inflation: Consumer prices in the United States increased and natural gas prices reached their highest levels since 2014. 2.1 percent year-over-year in December 2016, following a Texas housing market: The 2016 housing market seems to be 1.7 percent rise in November and matched market doing the best in San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin. expectations. The inflation rate accelerated for the fifth Homeownership rate: For Texas, the homeownership rate in consecutive month to the highest since June 2014, 4Q2016 was 62.2 percent, a decrease from 62.6 percent in boosted by gasoline and shelter cost. 4Q2015. U.S. unemployment: At the end of 2016, unemployment Texas median home price: Based on the Zillow home value was at 4.7 percent, down from 4.8 percent in October. index, the December 2016 median home value was Job growth: The economy added 156,000 jobs in $157,000. That’s $13,000 (8.1 percent) higher than last year’s September 2016. $144,000. Employment gain: Professional and business services Texas employment report: Texas employment grew 2.1 added 67,000 jobs in 4Q2016. Those industries gained percent, annualized in November 2016, outpacing the more than half a million jobs in 2016. Healthcare and nation’s 1.5 percent growth rate. Of the major metros, Dallas restaurants both added more than 30,000 positions. And expanded at the fastest pace at 4.3 percent (annualized), and the energy industry stopped losing jobs. others saw moderate growth. Housing market: The U.S. housing market continued to Texas unemployment: In December 2016, unemployment improve in 3Q2016. Construction starts rose for single- was at 4.6 percent. family housing but declined for multifamily homes. Retail jobs: Retail supports 1 of 4 American jobs. Retailers U.S. homeownership rate: The homeownership rate in the directly employ 28.1 million Americans. 4Q2016 was 63.7 percent and not statistically different E-commerce sales for 4Q2016: E-commerce remains the from the 4Q2015 rate of 63.8 percent. The fastest-growing retail category, rising 14.3 percent from homeownership rate in the Northeast was lower than the 2015 and well above the 4.1 percent growth rate in overall 4Q2015 rate, while the rates in the Midwest, South, and retail sales in 2016. West were not statistically different from the rates in the 4Q2015. 2 www.MuniServices.com ECONOMIC NEWS & TRENDS March 3, 2017 SECTION 1. U.S. ECONOMY AND INDICATORS U.S. Economy and Indicators 2016 https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/gdp4q16_adv.htm http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators U.S. GDP: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at GDP from agriculture averaged $170.45 billion from 2005 to an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the 4Q2016, according to 2016, reaching an all-time high of $235.10 billion in the the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of 1Q2013 and a record low of $123.30 billion in the Economic Analysis. In the 3Q2016, real GDP increased 3.5 1Q2006. percent (see Figure 1). Construction: GDP from construction increased to $784.90 billion in the 3Q 2016 from $779 billion in the 2Q Figure 1. GDP Changes Over Quarters (2013– 2016. 2016) Manufacturing: GDP from manufacturing increased to $2,181 billion in the 3Q 2016 from $2,171.70 billion in the 2Q 2016. Services: GDP from services increased to $12,875.60 billion in the 3Q2016 from $12,698 billion in the 2Q 2016. Utilities: GDP from utilities rose 4.2 percent above the December 2015 estimate of $1,133.7 billion. The value of construction in 2016 was $1,162.4 billion, 4.5 percent above the $1,112.4 billion spent in 2015. Transport: GDP from transport increased to $565.90 billion in the 3Q 2016 from $561.10 billion in the 2Q Agriculture: GDP from agriculture decreased to $160.10 2016. billion in the 3Q2016 from $162.10 billion in the 2Q2016. Consumer Price Index (CPI) https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1612.pdf CPI: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 241.432 (see Table1). Energy and gasoline: The energy index rose 1.5 percent in December 2016, its fourth straight increase. The gasoline index, which rose 2.7 percent in November, increased 3.0 percent in December. Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 1.8 percent in December. Major indexes that rose in December 2016: The index for all items except food and energy rose 0.2 percent in December 2016, the same increase as in November. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, education, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the indexes that increased. The all items index rose 2.1 percent for the 12 months ending December 2016. This figure has been steadily rising since July and is the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 2014. The index for all items except food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending December 2016, and the energy index increased 5.4 percent. Major indexes that declined in December 2016: Recent trends continued in the food indexes, as the food at home index again declined, offsetting an increase in the index for food away from home and leaving the overall food index unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. The food at home index fell 0.2 percent, its eighth consecutive decrease. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes fell. The fruits and vegetables index posted the largest decline, falling 1.1 percent as 3 www.MuniServices.com ECONOMIC NEWS & TRENDS March 3, 2017 the index for fresh fruits declined 2.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 0.4 percent. The beef index fell 0.8 percent, and the index for eggs decreased 3.9 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3 percent, and the cereals and bakery products index declined 0.1 percent. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.4 percent in December after falling in November, and the index for other food at home rose 0.3 percent. Table 1. Percent Changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers 2016 Industry December 2016 seasonally Unadjusted 12 months adjusted changes from ending December 2016 preceding November 2016 All items 0.3 2.1 Food 0.0 –0.2 Food at home –0.2 –2.0 Food away from home 0.2 2.3 Energy 1.5 5.4 Gasoline 3.0 9.1 Electricity 0.0 0.7 New vehicles 0.1 0.3 Used cars and trucks 0.5 –3.5 Apparel 0.7 –0.1 Medical care services 0.1 3.9 Shelter 0.3 3.6 Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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