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September 2018 No 141, Volume 12

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September 2018 No 141, Volume 12 September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 September 2018: President Rouhani & IMF Managing Director, Christine Largarde, in discussions regarding the safeguarding of the JCPOA. Summary Equity Markets The Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX Index) rose 13% in IRR terms in August. Market gains reflect the sharp devaluation of the rial since early 2018. Debt Markets From the start of the Iranian calendar year (March 2018) to end-August, total issuance on the fixed income market reached 761 million US$ based on the unofficial exchange rate*. Yield to maturity (YTM) remained stable at 28% at the end of August. Economic Review This issue reviews recent developments in Iran’s foreign exchange market and analyzes other markets’ performance in the context of the IRR devaluation. In addition, we have included a separate report covering the latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations and senior macroeconomic strategists in a fact-sheet summary, as well as an economic calendar released by local and international statistics centers. *IRR per US$: 104,990 1 Iran Investment Monthly Table of Contents 3 Market Overview 3 Market Insight 5 Performance & Updates 8 Sector Insight 12 Company Overview 12 Market Snapshot 13 TSE & Junior Market Performance 14 Top Ranked Companies 15 TSE Statistics 15 FX Movements 16 Iran’s Fixed Income Market 17 Economic Review 17 Latest Updates 20 Macroeconomic Data 21 Turquoise Partners 21 About Turquoise Partners 26 News & Views 2 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Market Insight September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 Portfolio Manager Comments The Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) continued its positive momentum in August, with its second best performing month in 2018 in local currency terms, as the overall index rose by 13.5%. It is important to note, that the TSE has gained 40% in local currency terms YTD but has fallen by 22.3% in EUR YTD, which demonstrates that the market has not yet compensated for the additional ~40-50% drop in the IRR versus the EUR. The petroleum products and basic metals sectors led the gains by recording rises 19% and 17% in IRR terms in their respective sub-indices, a record on a monthly basis. Shervin Shahriari In terms of the currency situation, we anticipate that the fall in IRR has mostly Chief Investment Officer run its course in the near term. Fundamentals suggest that assuming that oil exports remain above 1.5 million barrels per day (i.e. 500,000 barrels per day below the current level), the IRR will remain at this level for the time being. With this possible stabilization of the currency in the short term, the equity market remains very attractive with significant growth potential, and we believe has the best opportunity to compensate for this weakened Rial. Below you can see the overall index of the TSE market cap in US$ terms, which illustrates the fall in value of the equity market during this period of devaluation. Given the out performance of the equity market after the last severe devaluation in 2012-13, we are confident that at these currency levels a large part of the market is very attractively priced and we expect the market to re-adjust. Total Iranian Market Cap ( Billion $) Dec 2013 Market Cap (billion $) 175 Historical Average Sept 2012 Aug 2018 54 54 Source: Tehran Stock Exchange 3 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Market Insight September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 We would expect the market to bounce back to the US$ 100 billion market capitalization value seen after the signing of the nuclear agreement in late 2015 , which would suggest we would have an 80% rally in the stock prices in IRR terms, which we believe is attainable in mid-term. 4 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Performance & Update September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 Performance & Updates Summary - Aug 2018 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 64 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Free Float 21% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Number of Listed Companies1 588 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market TSE Index Performance (US$)2,4 +10.5% (MTD) -44.0% (YTD) TSE Total Turnover (million US$)2 2,264 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Dividend Yield (%) 3 10.2% TSE P/E 7.8 1 167 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on market data ending 1396 Iranian calendar year. 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) The TEDPIX index and junior Farabourse (IFB) market gained 13% and 12% respectively in IRR terms over the month. Based on the unofficial exchange rate, the month-on-month gains in dollar terms amounted to 11% on the TSE and 9% on the Farabourse. The TSE’s total trading volume surged by 59% reaching to 1.3 billion US$ in August based on the unofficial exchange rate. Trading on the IFB surged to 917 million US$, 34% increase on a monthly basis based on the unofficial rates. The total number of shares traded on the two markets increased 69% and 65%, respectively. Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 - August 2018 Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$) US$ Million Source: Tehran Stock Exchange Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the unofficial rate 1 Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities. 5 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Performance & Update September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 Tehran Stock Exchange Trade by Value Monthly Change Total: 59% Average: 71% August Total: 1,347 million US$ Average: 67 million US$ No. Trading Day: 20 July Total: 849 million US$ Average: 39 million US$ No. Trading Day: 22 US$ Million Tehran Stock Exchange Trade by Volume Monthly Change Total: 69% Average: 87% August Total: 50,085 million shares Average: 2,504 million shares No. Trading Day: 20 July Total: 29,469 million shares Average: 1,339 million shares No. Trading Day: 22 Shares Million Source: Tehran Stock Exchange All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the unofficial rate 6 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Performance & Update September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 Junior Market Trade by Value August Monthly Change Total: 917 million US$ Total: 34% Average: 46 million US$ Average: 48% No. Trading Day: 20 July Total: 681 million US$ Average: 31 million US$ No. Trading Day: 22 US$ Million Junior Market Trade by Volume Monthly Change Total: 65% Average:81% August Total: 14.5 billion shares Average: 730 million shares No. Trading Day: 20 July Total: 8.8 billion shares Average: 403 million shares No. Trading Day: 22 Shares Million Source: Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the unofficial rate 7 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Sector Insight September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 Sector Insight - August 2018 155.2 Oil & Gas Extraction and Related Services Except Surveying 89.9 Metal Ores Mining 84.9 Chemical & By Products 83.8 Basic Metals 57.7 Utilities Supplying % Sector -1.6 Pharmaceuticals Performance1 -2.4 Motor Vehicles and Auto Pars -2.4 Radio TV & Communication Equipment -4.0 Agriculture -8.9 Transportation & Storage 18.2 x Motor Vehicles and Auto Pars 11.9 x Electric Machinery & Apparatus 11.0 x Food Products and Beverages 10.9 x Monetary Intermediation - Banks 9.7 x Cement, Lime & Plaster 8.0 x Rubber & Plastic Products 7.4 x Other non metallic Mineral Products P/E 7.1 x Insurance & Pension funding Except Compulsory Social Security 5.9 x Financial leasing 5.6 x Pharmaceuticals 19% Refined Petroleum Products -4% Insurance & Pension funding Except Compulsory Social Security -6% Cement, Lime & Plaster -12% Investment Companies -22% Basic Metals -68% Rubber & Plastic Products %Trading -69% Monetary Intermediation - Banks Value2 -76% Computer & related activities -86% Metal Ores Mining -88% Electric Machinery & Apparatus Source: Tehran Stock Exchange, Note: Sectors with more than 4 companies included (exp. Telecommunication) 1Growth of sector’s index month on month in IRR term. 2Growth of trading volume month on month in US$. Official rate in July and unofficial rate inAugust are applied. 8 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Sector Insight September 2018 - Volume 12, No 141 Sector Insight: Technical and Engineering Services Overview Iran has one of the highest numbers of engineering graduates in the world. According to labour force statistics, in the six years to March 2017, for every engineering technician there were 1.7 engineers in the country. Technical and Engineering Services is considered as one of the new sectors with few listed companies, including those active in contracting, construction consulting, technical inspection and power generation. Technical & Engineering Services Market Cap (m$) 2,092* Market Cap (% total) 1.7% Number of Listed Companies 2 P/E 10.1x * At official exchange rate of 42,000. Table 1. Technical and Engineering Service Statistics Iranian Calendar Esfand 96 Mordad 96 Mordad 97 Georgian Calendar March 2018 August 2017 August 2018 Sector Index 665 693 771 Market Cap 68,919 73,454 77,614 Billion IRR Trade Volume 292 46 1495 Billion IRR Trade Volume 39 6 443 Million Shares Source: TSE In 2016 exports of technical and engineering services totaled 2.5 billion US$, heavily weighted to the power sector. Exports of technical and engineering goods reached 500 million US$ in the same period. One of the companies listed in this sector is a large power company. We will briefly review its financial statements in the following pages.
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