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Project Number: JMW‐IRAC Forecast of Space Technological Breakthroughs An Interactive Qualifying Project Report: submitted to the Faculty of the WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science by _________________ Tim Climis _____________________________ Amanda Learned _____________________________ Damon Bussey Date: 3 March 2005 _______________________________ Professor John M. Wilkes, Advisor ii Abstract Significant and plausible technological breakthroughs for the future of space travel are formulated based on cutting‐edge technologies and ideas, then sent for assessment by two Delphi‐type panels: one of “expertsʺ including NASA employees, academics, and enthusiasts, and one of cognitively‐known WPI Alumni. The results show the most likely and significant potential breakthroughs within the next 25‐50 years. These breakthroughs will be used to form portrayals of alternative futures in space to be assessed by the panelists in later rounds of the study. iii Acknowledgments The project group would like to thank the following for their support during the progress of this project. Milat Sayra Berirmen, Sebastian Ziolek, Kemal Cakkol, and Chris Elko, members of the previous IQP group that did a historical projection forecast. Professor Sergey Makarov for coming up with the idea for this project and acting as a co‐ advisor. Freeman Dyson for his encouragement and interest in the project. Rick Kline for getting the ball rolling at Cornell and helping us get contacts at NASA. All of the expert and alumni panelists that took the time to fill out the questionnaire and provide us with their opinions and insights. Ryan Wallace and Joseph Holmes of the Science Fiction Technology group that provided information on some breakthroughs. Ryan Caron and the WPI chapter of the ACM for providing server space for development and hosting of the online version of the questionnaire. And Professor John Wilkes for acting as an advisor on the project. iv Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... IX LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... XI 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Breakthroughs Make a Difference ................................................................................... 1 1.2 Current State: World Technology Policies ..................................................................... 3 1.3 Project Overview ................................................................................................................. 6 2. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 A Delphi Approach ............................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Selecting Panelists ............................................................................................................ 12 2.2.1 Selection of Alumni Panelists............................................................................... 12 2.2.2 Alumni Panelists Recruitment .............................................................................. 16 2.2.3 Selection of Expert Panelists ............................................................................... 17 2.2.4 Expert Panelists Recruitment .............................................................................. 19 2.3 Gathering Potential Breakthroughs .............................................................................. 21 2.4 Formatting the Questionnaire ........................................................................................ 23 2.3 Respondent Follow‐up .................................................................................................... 25 v 3. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 25 3.1 Historical Projection ......................................................................................................... 27 3.2 Published Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 30 3.3 Potential Breakthroughs ................................................................................................. 37 3.3.1 Dyson ........................................................................................................... 37 3.3.2 Science Fiction ................................................................................................ 40 3.4 Methodology Literature ................................................................................................... 42 3.4.1 Delphi Methods ................................................................................................ 42 3.4.2 The MBTI ....................................................................................................... 47 4. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................ 50 4.1 Alumni Panel Results ....................................................................................................... 50 4.1.1 Likelihood Ratings ............................................................................................ 51 4.1.2 Significance Ratings ........................................................................................... 54 4.1.3 Timeframe Ratings ............................................................................................ 58 4.2 Expert Panel Compared with Alumni Panel ................................................................ 60 4.2.1 Likelihood Ratings ............................................................................................ 61 4.2.2 Significance Ratings ........................................................................................... 64 4.2.3 Timeframes Ratings ........................................................................................... 67 5. RECOMMENDATION .................................................................................................... 71 vi APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................. 73 A1: Questionnaire .................................................................................................................... 73 Sample Cover Letter ................................................................................................. 73 Breakthrough Descriptions .......................................................................................... 75 Questionnaire Format................................................................................................ 83 A2: Letters ................................................................................................................................. 86 Cornell Dyson Letter ................................................................................................ 86 Cornell STS Professors Letter ...................................................................................... 88 Cornell Space Science Professors Letter .......................................................................... 90 Asking Dyson for Names Letter .................................................................................... 92 Asking Debbie Martin at RPIF - JPL for Names Letter ........................................................ 93 Asking Rose Steinat at the National Air and Space Museum for Names Letter ............................ 94 Expert Invitation Letter – Academics ............................................................................. 95 Expert Invitation Letter – Dyson Recommended .............................................................. 97 Expert Invitation Letter – NASA, JPL (Timothy O’Donnell) ................................................ 99 Alumni Invitation Letter ........................................................................................... 101 Expert Invitation Letter – Astronaut Trainees ................................................................ 103 Alumni Reminder Letter .......................................................................................... 105 Expert Reminder Letter ........................................................................................... 106 Server Down Apology Letter ..................................................................................... 107 Sample Outlier Update email ..................................................................................... 108 Sample Respondent Update Airmailing ......................................................................... 109 A3: Panelists’ comments ....................................................................................................... 110 Expert comments: .................................................................................................. 110 vii Nuclear Drive ................................................................................................. 110 Magbeam ....................................................................................................... 110 Slingatron ......................................................................................................
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