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January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Project Number: JMW- 4 5 Science Vs Science Fiction

A Interactive Qualifying Project Report: Submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science by

Joseph Holmes [email protected]

VI Ryan Wallace V [email protected]

Date: January 12 th, 2005

Professor John Wilkes [email protected]

Dr. Peter Campisao [email protected]

This document represents the work of WPI students. The opinions expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Worcester Polytechnic Institute administration or staff. January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Executive Summary

The purpose of this project is to examine the historical development of space propulsion, shielding, and energy storage in science fact and science fiction and then determine the influence of the fiction on the fact. To date, there have only been minor studies of the interaction of science fiction and science research, most being done to determine how realistic the specific science fiction scenarios are. Our question is more general.

We theorized that serious (and influential) science fiction would prove to be at least partly based in real science research. The reason for this is that several of the popular author of science fiction have been analyzed by scientists at NASA (mostly physicists), and have been found to presenting scenarios that do not violate the laws of physics. Often technology follows along the line of that which was available during the time. It is often the case that science concludes that some of the possibilities explored in fiction might be possible, true or important and hence are worth researching.

As part of science, one can only build what one conceives. This is one of the main base of Kuhn's paradigm theory about how science advances. If, as a society, one cannot believe that something could exist, based on the current concepts of reality, such as physics of the time or other theorems, then there is no way someone with credible credentials will try to develop the new technology. To develop these technologies, a shift in the beliefs of society (or at least the specialists in the relevant field), is needed. Science fiction might be one of the instruments that causes a paradigm shift to occur, if it encourages people to question whether something once thought to be impossible is conceivable. We see science fiction as broadening society's horizons in this way.

To meet the overall goal of this project, certain underlying objectives and tasks needed to be accomplished. The first of these objectives that were identified was that the histories of the applied science and technologies of propulsion, shielding, and energy storage needed to be assessed and described in terms of their development at given points in time. This required doing extensive research online, looking at articles discussing the histories January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW of the technologies and then organizing the information into a chronological format. The second objective was to do the same for the science fiction literature. The science fiction required looking for books that contained the technologies that were to be researched and then to organize these science fiction works in order by year and discover to what extent the technology is developed in fiction when it is being seriously researched by scientists. The last objective was to take the time sequenced information of both technologies and science fiction and then analyze the results to see which came first, science fiction can only cause change in science if the fictional development preceded the published research, based on funded proposals.

The overall findings of this project were less definitive than we had expected. Due to time constraints only a few areas of technology were explored. In each of these areas of technology, a further restriction to a few alternatives was required. In the area of Propulsion: Solar sails, magbeam, ion drive, and nuclear drive technologies were examined. Shielding, when exploring the histories, was focused on: aerogel, cold plasma, and electromagnetic shields. Electromagnetic got more attention and had the stronger support in the science fiction literature, but the materials researched have gotten more attention in the NASA budget. In energy storage, the histories of the research in the field, and the science fiction, brought out the subdivisions of: antimatter, black power, and, although almost purely in research, fuel cells.

The final analysis of the results showed that, in most cases, the science fiction didn't precede the research by enough time to make a firm case that the science fiction influenced the science research. We think it tended to be a stimulus rather than just being a concurrent development, but can't prove it except in the rare care that a scientist acknowledges the influence of Sci Fi writing work on his research program. Along the same lines, with Ion drives and nuclear drives, the actual science fiction did not precede the research, although due to gaps in the research it might have encouraged the researchers to come back to these technologies after they were largely abandoned by prior scientists. Given the concurrence of theorizing in science and science fiction exploration of the same idea (extrapolated to its logical conclusions) one needs to have

11 January 12th, 2005 JHH RTW testimony from the scientists in the field to document the extent to which science fiction has inspired or encouraged key figures in the history of the scientific community who developed certain lines of research. We do not have such testimony but would now know who to contact to get it.

The results from this project lead us to conclude that further research must be done to bring the project to a definitive conclusion. This might make it seem that the project was unsuccessful because it is inconclusive. We would hold quite to the contrary. Even though more research must be completed to actually determine if science fiction can cause a paradigm shift in science, this project has proven that the idea is still viable based on time sequenced data. Had the science clearly preceded the science fiction and the science fiction been derivative rather than in the vanguard of ideas, the notion of science fiction significantly spurring science would not be viable. Through further research and the gathering of testimony, this thesis could be proven one way or the other. Another way to see whether science fiction influences science research is to see whether ideas that first appeared as science fiction are now considered promising by a panel of experts from the relevant sciences. Our research has been passed along to a team doing just such a "Delpi" study, so at least this step will be taken , though all reference to Sci Fi treatments of the ideas that have such origins has been removed in that study. The results should be available by March, but alas we cannot await them. Refer to Climis et al. and Partridge et al. for the unmanned and manned technology results respectiviely.

iii January 12th, 2005 JHH RTW ABSTRACT

The purpose of this project is to examine the historical development of space propulsion, shielding, and energy storage in science fact and science fiction and then determine the influence of the science fiction on scientific fact illustrated by these cases. There was no definitive conclusion to this project. The timelines suggest that science fiction has an influence on science research and that it draws on the science to span the technological development implicit in he science, even before the science is firm. Some theoretical positions are adopted "early" in Sci Fi because of their technological "promise". However, that position doesn't clearly support the claim the Science Fiction precedes and shapes the development of the science.

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January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Table of Contents

1. Introduction 1 2. Overview 3 2.1. Information 3 2.1.1. Science Fiction's Basis in Reality 3 2.1.2. Technology Now and 50 Years Ago, The Differences 6 2.2. Imagination and innovation 7 2.3. Summary 11 3. Project Purpose 13 3.1. Introduction 13 3.2. Problem Statement 13 3.2.1. Locate Technology in Fiction 13 3.2.2. Determine Impact on the Time Period 14 3.2.3. Determine correlation between Science Fiction and Fact 14 3.3. Summary 14 4. Methodology 16 4.1. Introduction 16 4.2. Methods 16 4.2.1. Determine Which Science Fiction works are reliable 16 4.2.2. Determine Significant Science Fiction Technologies 17 4.2.3. Determine Science Fact Technologies 17 4.2.4. Determine correlation between Science Fiction and Fact 18 5. Findings 19 5.1. Introduction 19 5.2. Propulsion 19 5.2.1. Solar Sails 20 5.2.2. Nuclear Drive 23 5.2.3. Ion Drives 28 5.2.4. MagBeam Propulsion 32 5.2.5. Summary 34 5.3. Shielding 34 5.3.1. Introduction 34 5.3.2. Science Fiction 34 5.3.3. History 36 5.3.4. Summary 39 5.4. Energy Storage 39 5.5. Summary 42 6 Results 43 6.1. Introduction 43 6.2. Shielding Results 43 6.3. Propulsion Results 44 6.3.1. Ion Drive 45 6.3.2. Magbeam 46 6.3.3. Solar Sail 47 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW 6.4. Energy Storage Results 48 6.5. Summary 49 7. Conclusion 50 7.1. Result Analysis 50 7.2. Future Work 51 7.3. Summary 53

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1. Introduction

Technological advancements are based upon what a culture can conceive of as possible. The peoples of Mesopotamia, like everyone else at the time, once were hunter gatherers, and thus nomadic following the herds as they migrated in search of the vegetation they ate, which the humans could not eat. Some plants, even wheat, oats, a few others, they could eat directly if they ground and cooked the meal. At some point their society could conceive displacing the grass they could not eat with wheat, oats, and barley that they could eat and grow plants, as opposed to hunting. This society by creating agriculture, also fostered civilization as they could, indeed must, live in one place to grow food, protect their fields and in that climate irrigate them. The principle behind this analogy is that what a population can conceive it will probably develop given time to develop the means. It is from this concept that this project begins. This project will analyze to what extent there is a correlation between science and science fiction, since that is a literature that consciously challenges one to consider the possibility of things that no one has done yet.

Science fiction literature that is concerned with space typically draws from the cultural mythology, and the technology of the day. Technologies that are currently available act as a firm base for many space oriented science fiction works. It is from this base that science fiction writers are able to conceive what technologies may be possible in the near to distant future. This is of great importance to this project. In terms of stellar exploration this is the type of conception that is necessary to prove the statement in the previous paragraph.

To develop this project it is necessary to explore technologies and to explore the science fiction that correlates to the technologies in question. The areas of technologies in question are propulsion, shielding, and energy storage. In this document the findings on each technology will be explored in some detail, as will the results that will be

1 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW determined from the findings, in an effort to see whether a clear case can be made for the science fiction preceding (and thus influence or shaping) applied science.

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2. Overview

2.1. Information

2.1.1. Science Fiction's Basis in Reality

When looking at the relationship between Science fiction and Science fact it is appropriate to explore what impact the real physics and technologies of the time have on the Science fiction of the day. One assumption of this team is that most science fiction writers base their writing on fact to some extent and the best of them try to incorporate a considerable factual foundation for their fantasy. The purpose of the rest of this section is to describe the basis for this assumption and to provide some evidence as to why the assumption seems valid, at least for any author of science fiction that has a large popular following and has won some awards.

The premise that science fiction authors base their writing on some form of science, (whether in the form of proven physics theory under consideration or some current technology that is being researched), complicates this research project. It means we will rarely find ideas that appeared in science fiction before they do in science, and we are trying to establish the idea of a causal relationship, ie science fiction influences the course of science and technology. So, we will have to look for ideas coming out of science in abstract for, the science fiction developing the technological implications of the science, thus stimulating applied science and engineering to realize the potential in the science.

Since other things could have been done with the scientific idea and lots of discoveries in science are never picked up and developed, this is a significant focusing and shaping role for science fiction to have. It is an important influence on the future if this pressure is valid. To some extent, it is true by definition, since any author we deemed a reliable resource for this project does have some background in physics or some influence of one

3 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW of the sciences is evident in his work. Our sample is selective, focusing on what we consider to be the serious authors. This influence could be from an expert in the field working on the work of fiction with the author or possibly the author has some personal knowledge about new or current technologies. The fiction is in predicting what these technologies will have for an influence on future technologies and the larger society. An example of an instance were the technology level of the time influenced the writing of science fiction is that of the 1950's novel Player Piano by Vonnegut. He conceived of a super computer but it took up a large building with the processing unit being cooled by an ice cavern. This was based on the fact that at the time the computers would take up a large room to process simple things like number crunching or other functions that would be considered simple today. Small devices such as PDAs and cell phones can handle the same numeric manipulations and even far surpass what was done by those monstrosities, so the form that the concept took, and the estimated number of supercomputers in the nation was wrong, but not the idea that computers would grow in power to the point of today's supercomputer and control the US economy.

Certain notable science fiction writers based their mini universes directly on physics and scientific reality. An example of an author that follows the basics of physics is that of Gene Roddenberry, who held well to the scientific truth, but stretched the reality of some of the more notable technologies that were used. This isn't to say nothing outrageous was ever done on the show (or any of the continuations of the Star Trek series), but they adhered to some of the more notable principles of physics. There are mistakes, such as crew members of the Enterprise holding their breathe while in the vacuum of space and so forth, but certain technologies and other basic principles still hold true to science fact. Such things as matter-antimatter power generation and impulse drive have some basis in reality and are theoretically possible. If certain inventions are made or a scientist figures out what is necessary to make the invention this vision of the future could unfold. As quoted by David Allen Batchelor, Ph. D, a physicist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center: I could name other similar mistakes. Pm a physicist, and many of my colleagues watch Star Trek. A few of them imagine some hypothetical, perfectly accurate science fiction TV series, and discredit Star Trek because of some list of science errors or impossible events in particular episodes. This is unfair. They will watch Shakespeare without a

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complaint, and his plays wouldn't pass the same rigorous test. Accurate science is seldom exciting and spectacular enough to base a weekly adventure TV show upon. Generally Star Trek is pretty intelligently written and more faithful to science than any other science fiction series ever shown on television. Star Trek also attracts and excites generations of viewers about advanced science and engineering, and it's almost the only show that depicts scientists and engineers positively, as role models. So let's forgive the show for an occasional misconception in the service of an epic adventure. (Batchelor 1)

This explains that even highly trained physicists have an understanding that, although imperfect, some of these imperfections are necessary and do make the show more fun and exciting. This is also due to the necessity that everything happen in such a limited time span as an hour, really around 45 minutes when considering commercials. Other authors, such as literature writers, etc, are not as limited (Batchelor 1).

Another author under similar constraints as that of Gene Roddenberry is that of George Lucas. Almost worst than a daily television show; George Lucas went for the silver screen. In something under two hours, Lucas had to make believers of all that watched his movies. Not only did he have to portray character development in a short amount of time, but he had to display what kind of world these characters lived in. Any large mistake could kill credibility.

One major well known mistake on Lucas' part, the explosions are far too large for the limited air supply that could possibly be available on any of the ships that explode during any part of the series. This is not the only mistake made, but several of the technologies and other scientific fan fairs that Lucas presented to us have at least some basis in reality. Some of the technologies are even being researched today (IMDB 1). Artificial Intelligence, such as C3PO and R2D2, is widely accepted goal. With the increase in power of computers, AI becomes more of a reality ever day. The Empire TIE fighter refers to the Twin Ion Engine drives that are used to move the vehicles. Even shielding is a reality now. From magnetics to such material known as "aerogel" produced by NASA, shielding becomes more of a science fact than science fiction (Star Wars 1).

Science fiction and fact are blending more than ever these days. Dreams of authors and other works of science fiction are becoming more of a reality every day. Someday the weapon of choice may even become a phasor pistol. The authors of the works done in

5 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW science fiction that were chosen for the purpose of this paper all have at least as much a respect for and understanding of physics as George Lucas and Gene Roddenberry. So, for the purpose of saving time and to further the research of this document, the assumption of this paper is that all relevant works of science fiction began by adopting some contemporary scientific ideas.

2.1.2. Technology Now and 50 Years Ago, The Differences

The differences in the level of technologies now compared to what we had 50 years ago can be rather surprising to the youth of this age, when thinking of how far we have come in so many different areas of technology. The technology in our current day and age advanced dramatically farther than what the world had 50 years ago, from computing power to laser technology.

The 1950's were a booming time. Many inspirational inventions were coming out, such as the discovery of the laser, some of the first publicly usable computers, and the first direct-dial transcontinental telephone call was placed. The hydrogen bomb was also created, the most destructive nuclear weapon to date. The first transcontinental television program was presented, that being of Harry Truman's speech to the world. In 1958 the first United States satellite, Explorer I, orbited the earth (AT&T labs 1).

Meanwhile, television became popular, other media resources such as newspapers and magazines felt the hit as more and more families began watching it for televised news casts and other informational and entertainment programs became available. Children started watching the television for more hours then were spent in school (a trend that has not been broken). In 1954, the television images became colored, making things look even more life-like, and drew in an even larger crowd as the movie industry suddenly felt serious competition from the little screen (AMC 5). The computer went public with the creation of the UNIVAC by John Presper Eckert & John W. Mauchly and eventually (in 1958) the public saw the first transistorized version of the computer released. The

6 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW transistorized version allowed for the advent of the smaller, more mobile PC. Before transistors, vacuum tubes were used, causing a computer to be something close to room sized, or at the least much larger than desk size.

In 2004, computers are known as "the PC", "the laptop", and "the PDA". Even the cell phone can take on many of the functions that a computer once served. The laser has advanced so far as to be able to cut through solid steel, make the frames for cars, and even shoot speeding rockets out of the air (FAS 3). Television has changed from its basic vacuum tube form to that of the Plasma TV or liquid crystal display. Instead of just being able to display color, now we have High Definition television, which displays images "almost like you were sitting there in the middle of the action (Best Buy 2)." Also the "little" screens are getting bigger without intruding further and further from the wall.

The times, and the technology, certainly have changed from the 1950's. Current technology is far superior to that of the 1950's, when talking about everything from home appliances to military technology. Although our level of technology is superior, it would be nothing now without those first steps that proved the concept. Even with the first steps inspiration on the part of several key inventors still can not be overlooked. The future may lead to many things, hopefully amongst them is a trip to Mars in the not too distant future.

2.2. Imagination and innovation

The thesis of this paper is that concepts of space technology grow out of science fiction about half of the time. This section of the report discusses the core issue that this presents which is how ideas filter into science. That is to say, what factors foster innovation, and what factors hinder innovation. Conceptual ideas in general lead to innovations, and although some technologies are developed by random discovery the vast majority begin as concepts. Another issue to be addressed is how imagination can affect innovation. This section discusses the factors that breed and hinder innovation.

7 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW In order to determine the affect of conception on innovation, one must analyze some important historical examples that illustrate the force that can lead to innovation. First, there can be compition among technologists. An example is the race to invent the electric light bulb. Thomas Edison, and Joseph Swan raced to invent the device and completed it practically simultaneously. There was no real scientific origin of the race, like a paradigm shift that suddenly made it seem possible. The device was going to fulfill a known social need though, and was highly marketable. Spicing things up was the competition between an American, and an Englishman. The need to create a more convenient and safe form of light over the gas system that was being used at the time was the prime mover in this development. The key fact here is that the concept of an electric light bulb had existed before their intent to develop it into a practical device. Edison's real feat was to invent an electricity generating and distribution system so that the light bulb could be used. This concept generated the race to create a more convenient and safe source of light, and led to the men's pursuit of the desired invention.

Another important example is that of Frederick Soddy. Soddy believed that someone would discover how to separate an atom as soon as he and Rutherford figured out an atom had parts. He concluded that this separation would lead to an immense release of energy. It also opened the way for Alchemy, changing one element into another. Soddy had, at first, envisioned that this discovery would revolutionize the world and create a power source so great there would be nearly limitless power. This he believed would breed a utopia. Later, during World War I, his view changed. He instead said that the first application of separating an atom would be in the creation of an "atomic bomb". This was in 1915 23 years before the atom was actually separated, and 30 years before the Manhattan Project and the US's attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end World War II. This is extraordinary foresight, but most important is that this was just a technical concept that Soddy thought of in social context as a result of watching things changing in society and technology. Concepts are powerful and evocative, but not enough by themselves.

8 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW A far more important example to this paper is that of Robert Goddard. Goddard is, of course, the father of rocket technology. He pioneered research into rocket technology in the early part of the twentieth century. Goddard calculated the mass to fuel ratios for rockets, and had very early on determined that gun powder wouldn't generate enough force to escape the atmosphere. He believed that a liquid fueled rocket would allow a ship to reach "escape velocity", leave the atmosphere and reach the moon. He turned out to be right.

This technique to reaching space is something that Goddard had conceived and then began to develop, but he too had to watch rockets develop as ballistic missiles in war before they were applied to space exploration. He personally worked on bazookas for the US Army, so he knew how to get money to do what he really wanted to do from organizations with other interests. He did not live to see his vision achieved in the Apollo program. Ironically, German Wernher Von Braun's, Saturn 5 rocket, was based on his V- 2 research for Hitler's Nazi Germany, so military money from both sides went into this historic achievement.

Imagination can fuel the process of moving between conception and development. Imagination is the formation of a mental image of something that is not perceived as real and is not present to the senses. (Webster's) There are many who consider imagination as being greater than science in that it promotes cognition, and more importantly, innovation. What prevents innovation is often the belief that something cannot be done which blocks the effort to try.

When we consider the vast array of possibilities within our universe, the only things that are truly not possible are those things that violate the natural laws of physics. By "natural" laws I do not mean those we have articulated so far like those of Newtonian laws of physics which later gave way to Einstein's Relativistic Quantum Physics. I mean those that actually dictate the function of the universe and about which we are slowly learning. The problem is that innovation is many times limited by the prevailing paradigms within the scientific community. That is to say whatever cannot fit the model

9 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW that scientists of the time have set forth (for instance Quantum physics and special relativity), then those theories are outright rejected and open to research until the view within the sciences community is changed.

A famous example is that of this is that of meteorites. Though meteors had actually hit the Earth for quite sometime, during the 18th century meteorites were not believed to exist. People had seen "shooting stars" and found odd metalloid rocks clearly subjected to extreme heat, but had not connected the two. Despite the fact that there was evidence that rocks could "fall from the sky" and the general public had some witnesses, the scientists did not believe them. The reason for their rejection was that the scientific community could not tolerate dissension beyond a certain point or the consensus that guided cumulative research would be destroyed. Individual Scientists were starting to collect and think about these anomalous rocks but none attempted to publish their thoughts for fear of ostracism. In the late 18 th century it became possible (due to the weakening consensus against rocks falling from the sky, a change within the scientific community) to accept meteorites as a theory under the scientific examination. The model connecting the observation in the sky and the rock on the ground soon emerged. Then the true origin and meaning of the rocks as messengers from outer space could be appreciated.

A more current example involves the problems we are having with fixing the environment. In an article written by Edward Wilson the current approach to thinking about the mean-nature relationship is a bottleneck to developing a solution to the problem. That is not to say that the paradigm of natural resources as commodities is the only problem, but it certainly doesn't make the situation better. Science in many other fields accepts the economist's view of how the environment should be viewed and treated. Scientists are willing to admit that we have a problem in the environment, but the severity is not understood in ecological terms. The reason for this is that the economists view is the accepted view, and the environmentalist view of the nature as a web of life that is delicate and worth preserving by leaving it alone cannot be added to the current commodity view (that nothing in nature is valuable until it is changed and put

10 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW to use) without a stressful paradigm shift, something akin to the move from Newtonian to Relativistic Physics.

The topic of importance to this paper is where does science fiction fit in to all of this? The answer is it fits into both categories. Science fiction writers adopt scientific theories and try to conceive of technologies far into the future based on them- essentially trying to do the same kind of forecasting that Soddy did with nuclear technology. Science fiction writers sometimes dare to challenge the established paradigms within the scientific community, and at least spur the initial thought and can lead to a paradigm shift that will result in further development. The notion of a Solar Sail is an example. When the scientific community viewed space as a vacuum, the concept was ludicrous-but still, by historical analogy, the "Windjammer" idea of space travel appears in science fiction while there still are some Clipper ships plying the seas of the Earth. Scientists toy with the idea, and the concept of a "Solar Wind" emerges. Suddenly, "Sunjammer" and similar wise science fiction accounts reemerge 100 years later and today the search for a material that could serve as a solar sail is seriously underway.

2.3. Summary

There exists a link between popular science fiction writers and science. The vast majority of writers try not to overtly violate the laws of physics. In order to do this they must accept some of the constraints of contemporary science upon them. The purpose of this paper is to examine what effect these authors have upon the scientist, as they try to stretch the science a little and examine its technology implications, while not being written off as completely beyond the pale of credibility.

There are numerous examples of the influence of conception upon scientific development. For the important relationships are illustrated by Edison, Soddy, and Goddard. They all conceived an invention or technique which has become important to our current global view of what is possible and advancement beyond that point. It is too much to say that there isn't anything we couldn't think up that we couldn't build.

11 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW However; we certainly can't build what we cannot conceive. Typically we consider certain technologies to be beyond the realm of possibility because they don't fit the current scientific paradigm. It is this premise that our paper is based on. We intend to look at science fiction, a type of literature that is full of things beyond the current reality, that could someday be realized. This paper document our effort to determine to what extent science fiction pushes science, especially space science, and if there is relationship between imagination and scientific discovery when looking at the history and future of all space science.

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3. Project Purpose

3.1. Introduction Through out the course of this project it became apparent that a limited set of goals and objectives were required so that a general direction could be set and the project completed in seven weeks. In this section these strategy and objectives will be discussed and turned into a series of tasks to be completed.

3.2. Problem Statement

The purpose of this project is to take the areas of propulsion, shielding, and energy storage and look at their histories in science fact and science fiction. Then an effort will be made to determine the influence of the fiction on the factual scientific advance. Getting the events in time sequence will be stressed, since "future" events can't affect a contemporary or prior development

3.2.1. Locate Technology in Fiction

The primary objective of this project is to explore the way in which three primary technologies that we know were discussed in science fiction came to be the subject of scientific inquiry and came to be considered promising. The technologies that were chosen by this team are discussed in Science fiction in the time period of 50 to 60 years ago in Science Fiction that referred to the 21 st century. The tasks that are involved with this objective are: • Determine the prominent technologies discussed 50 to 60 years ago • Determine the prominent technologies within the last 10 years of 2004 • Compare the difference between the two time periods

13 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW 3.2.2. Determine Impact on the Time Period

Once the kind of propulsion and shielding employed in 20 th century science fiction is described, it is then necessary to see whether the level of our technology in science fact now makes that a realistic possibility or whether technology has moved in another direction. This means looking at electrical systems and other areas of particular interest during the time and then seeing how this has changed. The tasks that are involved in meeting this objective are similar to those that were purposed for that of looking at the science fiction. Refer to section 3.2.1's bullets for the actions that are needed to be completed to meet this objective.

3.2.3. Determine correlation between Science Fiction and Fact

Once the data has been gathered for both Science Fiction and Science Fact for both time periods it is necessary to determine how the Science fiction of the time period has influenced the invention of actual space technologies. A comparison will be done as to whether the Science Fiction technologies have influenced the real technology and whether this influence has caused a shift in the focus of the Science Fiction technologies, out to further horizon, on whether they have now become standard features of the genre.

3.3. Summary In summary, the goal of this project is to achieve an understanding of which came first, the science fiction writing or the science and technology. The objectives of locating technology in fiction, determining the impact of these technologies on the actual Research and Development and applied science of time period, and determining the relationship between science fiction and science fact were discussed. What have not been discussed is whether the study will be qualitative or quantitative descriptive or statistical. How shall rigor be achieved? This will be a qualitative comparative study using a few case studies — propulsion, shielding, and energy storage technologies only. Parallel studies of Science Fiction and Technical literature will also be compared for each case,

14 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW with special attention to the time sequence of publication dates. We are interested in the direction of influence- seeking evidence of causal linkage. The findings will probably not be definitive, but they should be persuasive.

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4. Methodology

4.1. Introduction This section discusses steps taken to accomplish this project, and the primary sources used in data collection. Our objectives in this section (presented in chapter 3) will be to identify Science Fiction technologies that are under development, identify science fiction authors of relevance, identify scientists that can shed light on this project, and thus determine the degree of connection between Science and Science Fiction, and the likely direction of causality.

4.2. Methods

4.2.1. Determine Which Science Fiction works are reliable

First of all one must determine which science fiction works are "reliable"- i.e. worth reviewing for this study-, and which are so far fetched no scientist could take them seriously. This carries a risk. The "serious" science fiction writers draw on serious science as a starting point, so they can stretch paradigms and adopt currently controversial and unproven theory, but not totally challenge contemporary science at the level of its premises. What it rules out is a story that is counter to the "Laws of physics". In order to do this the following steps will be taken:

• We will start by determining if the technologies within the work of fiction follow the laws of physics-contemporary materialistic Earth physics. • Read literature reviews about the work to determine if academics trained in Physical science believe that it is far fetched • Locate opinions of readers on the book via the web to determine if they believe the book is too fantastic to be taken seriously.

16 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW • Ask the panel of scientists that are being assembled by another IQP team about their beliefs regarding the proposed technologies Through this approach we hope to obtain a reliable sample of "serious" science fiction pieces to be reviewed in our project. Hence, we are ruling out the thinkers who refuse to be bound by current scientific reality and there are a few really good ones. Heinlin's "Stranger in a Strange Land" posits an alien science developed by Martian that does not distinguish between the material and spiritual worlds as much as our tradition. Hence, the first human taught in this tradition, on returning to Earth, has to start a new religious group to be able to teach what he has learned to other humans, even though he learned it as a science from the Martians. To his followers he has strange powers. People who upset him can just disappear. In the end, this is not the type of science fiction that will be used in this paper due to the story ignoring conventional science.

4.2.2. Determine Significant Science Fiction Technologies To begin with, it is necessary to identify what level the technologies that were chosen are currently at in their development during the time periods that were previously stated in chapter 3. In order to find these technologies the following steps will be taken: • Read reviews of Science fiction books • Read online material on books • Read a sample of identified potentially useful books Through these resources we hope to identify three technologies that were prominent in Science Fiction during c1950 and three that are prominent in Science Fiction within the period of 1994 to 2004. Further research on these technologies identified can be continued as a way of reaching the main goal.

4.2.3. Determine Science Fact Technologies Once the levels and kinds of the technologies found in Science Fiction are identified, the levels of the technology research need to be identified for each time period. The way that we will attempt to find what research was and is being done is to: • Look online for prominent technologies that were in development around 1950- 1960

17 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW • Read books on the development of technologies circa 1950-1960 (the ramp up to the Apollo Program) • Read online articles and books on current technologies and advancements Once this research is completed it will lead directly into the correlation between Science fiction and Science fact.

4.2.4. Determine correlation between Science Fiction and Fact The main purpose remains to compare what effects science fiction of the past has on the present and what predictions can be derived from this correlation for future. Towards this end, the research taken from meeting the two previous objectives must be compiled and examined. Other work must be done as to finish this final step. This work is: • Take the data obtained previously gathered • Analyze the relationship between Science Fiction and Technology • Draw upon data gathered and previous research from online to create a final conclusion as to how Science Fiction effects research in current technology Through these ends the final goal of this project can be reached.

18 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW

5. Findings

5.1. Introduction This chapter discusses the results of the research that was done to explore the link between science fiction the technologies examined: propulsion, shielding, and energy storage. In this chapter, the science fiction and the science research histories are discussed. In the case of science fiction, specific discussions of the science fiction literature by experts in the field were used when found. The last major resource used were histories discussing the development of a technology in either science fiction or in the research.

5.2. Propulsion

This section discusses the development of four propulsion technologies and their impacts on space exploration: Solar Sails, Magbeam propulsion, Ion drives, and Nuclear drives. Each of these technological approaches has drawbacks when one considers them for long term use. There is often a legitimate technical debate among experts who have to ask the question as to whether a tried and true approach is better than a radical approach? Some of these technologies have a basis in science and others are more "credible" extensions of current technology. The point of this section is to explore the extent to which science fiction helps to advance scientific discovery and technological innovation. Science fiction can at times act as a vision of what is likely to be developed in the future, and even launch a technical initiative to see if it is a real possibility. In the case of innovations in propulsion technology the correlation between science fiction and science fact will be evaluated through the development of solar sails, magbeam propulsion, ion drives, nuclear drives, and current rocket technology.

19 January 12th , 2005 JHH RTW 5.2.1. Solar Sails

Solar sail technology is a technology has existed in science fiction for nearly a century. This technology requires metallic but flexible sails that collect solar pressure and use that pressure to propel a small vessel through space. In most concept drawings the sails are quite a bit larger than the actual vessel, this includes the Planetary Societies Solar sail vessel though small the metal sails were very large when fully deployed. The scientific research has taken the same point of view. This approach is radical because finding a metal that can be as free floating as cloth but be capable of containing solar pressure is difficult. The advantage to using this approach is speed. The theoretical maximum speed of a vessel equipped with a solar sail is half the speed of light. This would mean getting to the nearest star system in about 8 years which is significantly faster than most other approaches. Should all the problems with materials be solved, this technology would be very promising. This is probably why it is so pervasive in science fiction. Authors see it as a promising way to reach other stars, or solar systems. Science Fiction

As noted earlier, solar sail technology is discussed at length within Science Fiction Literature. Solar sail technology first made its appearance in science fiction in the Jules Vernes novel From the Earth to the Moon. Written in 1867 this book discuses the possibility of using light in a way similar to wind on oceanic vessels of the past. The book describes the property as such:

"...there will some day appear velocities far greater than these, of which light or electricity will probably be the mechanical agent..."(Vernes)

The next, and arguably most important mention science fiction contribution to solar sail technology came in an article written in 1951 called "Clipper Ships of Space". This article describes all of the principles of a solar sail vessel, and sparks the first real scientific research into the possibilities of this approach. Cordwainer Smith wrote "The Lady who Sailed the Soul" (1960), this was the first true science fiction story about solar

20 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW sails. This story takes place in the far future where people take trips on sailing vessels in space. The story describes solar sails as below:

"tissue-metal wings with which the bodies of people finally fluttered out among the stars." (Smith)

In 1962 Jack Vance wrote "Sail 25" which was a story about space cadets aboard a vessel equipped with a solar sail. The story describes the ship:

"The ship, great sail spread to the fading sunlight, fled like a ghost - out, always out. Each of the cadets had quietly performed the same calculations, and arrived at the same result. If the swing around Jupiter were not performed with exactitude, if the ship were not slung back like a stone on a string, there was nothing beyond..."(Vance)

In 1963 Cordwainer Smith wrote another story about solar sails in which he made further descriptions of the technology, which was followed by a story written by Arthur C Clarke called "Sunjammer" (1964) a story about a race between space yachts that used a solar sail configuration. In a modern example solar sails appeared in an episode of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine called Explorers. The vessel in the episode had three large sails two on the sides, and one above the craft. The actual vessel was much smaller than any of the sails.

History

Sails have been around for well over 2000 years. They were the first method explorers used to traverse the great Atlantic sea. Wind has always been both a friend and a curse to sailors. Sailing in great yachts and other sail boats is still a hobby that is loved by many to this day, even with the technology to propel crafts through the ocean at much greater speeds. Isn't the logical first step for traversing the great sea that is space sails as well (Setting 1)?

21 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW To some the dream of sailing through space is coming closer and closer to a reality. Solar sails have been proposed all over the world as a means of propelling a vessel through space. Although, what would a sailor use to fill these solar sails? Nothing else but the sun itself would be the wind to fill the sails. It is a common misconception that solar winds will propel solar sail crafts, although solar winds hardly have enough push to move a vessel more then a few meters per second. Using photons, created by the sun in the form of light, solar sails will constantly propel ships to the stars. This is the claim of advocates of the solar sail technology (Setting 2).

Propulsion by such means requires a light weight material that will neither break up in the turbulence of the solar winds, but is also light enough to pick up the photons emitted by the sun and allow for the movement of the craft. This difficulty has delayed NASA in developing a craft a solar sail. Scientists have found several promising materials, the primary choice at the moment would be carbon fibers. Through the use of these sails it might be possible to explore the farthest reaches of the known universe. Current predictions are that a vessel using solar sails could explore as far out as beyond the nine planets, even going so far as to overtake Voyager 1 by the year 2018 if it is sent out in 2010 (Setting 2).

In 1960 NASA began researching solar sail vessels. This line of research was abandoned soon after due to the loss of funding from the government. In 2000, NASA restarted the program as a part of Project Prometheus. Scientists from NASA predict that a vessel using solar sails could go as fast as 90km per sec. This would translate into 200,000 miles per hour, or almost 4.8 million miles in a day. The sail would need to be constructed of many small sails, so that course could be maintained and any changes in the photons emitted from the sun (light) can be accounted for. A prototype for the solar sail can be seen in figure 1.

22 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW

C. ICK MACF aciF JPCF CFMTAA: !WC"( ON Figure 1: A design for a Solar Sail Vessel

There are several solar sails, so that each can be individually manipulated to make corrections for the changes in the direction of the light can be best directed in the direction the craft wished to travel. A solar sail would be incredibly slow getting to maximum speed, but, in an unmanned vessel, there is little concern for the time in starting up when the end result is exploration beyond the nine planets (Setting 3).

5.2.2. Nuclear Drive

A Nuclear Drive is a propulsion system in which the needed thrust is produced by a nuclear reactor. This technology is related to the technology the Navy uses in nuclear submarines. It is believed that this technology can be adapted for space travel. The advantage to this method is what the navy has done through testing of the nuclear drive within submarines. The major disadvantage to this approach is that our test cases have already show us what can and likely will go wrong with a nuclear reactor. Nuclear reactions produce a tremendous amount of energy, and we have just scratched the surface in terms of learning to control the reactor on Earth and dissipate the excess heat. If there is any instability in the reactor and it goes critical there we could lose the vessel, and contaminate the atmosphere. In addition the cost of shielding a manned crew or important instruments from the radiation can be quite expensive. Nuclear drive technology appears in different forms of science fiction works, and other entertainment.

23 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW However it tends to appear in a different form of nuclear technology that we are not currently capable of doing or using.

Science Fiction

Nuclear drives appear throughout science fiction. One of the popular forms is the Fusion Drive. A fusion reactor is used to accelerate electrically charged particles to the speed of light before they are fired out of the source vessel to produce thrust. This method of travel is considered a sub-light propulsion form. Fusion drive technology appears in many science fiction mediums including video games, television and literature. One of the earlier video games to propose fusion drives as a method of propulsion was Microprose's Master of Orion. In the early stages of the game both nuclear and fusion drives are predominant. Fusion drives appear in many science fiction Television and movies like Star Trek and Star Wars. Fusion drives also appear in novels such as Sex and Violence in Zero G (1999) by Allen Steel; which is a collection of short stories some of which have fusion drive vessels that make trips between planets. A modern reference to fusion engines occurs in Arthur C Clarke's 2061:0dessy Three (1989) in which Clarke (in a series of books) defines the outlook of the future and refines his descriptions of fusion drives. However this is not the only possibility for creating a nuclear reactor like drive system.

Another form of nuclear engine is an anti-matter drive. The principle behind a nuclear reaction is to create a controlled explosion and use the released energy to perform some action. Anti-matter is better in that it creates a much larger release of energy. An anti- matter reaction is fairly simple, anti-matter is a particle with an opposite charge, but identical mass to common subatomic particles like electrons and protons. For example an electron has an anti particle called the positron which has the same mass but opposite charge (the mass of a proton is greater than an electron). When the two particles meet in free space they annihilate each other, and cause a massive release of energy. The most obvious science fiction example of the use of anti-matter as a form of propulsion is Star Trek. Anti-matter drives were used throughout the spin off series and movies. In the

24 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW 1990s Nightsdawn novels written by Peter Hamilton the reaction is used to power rockets as well.

History

Nuclear power was first discovered in 1895 by Wilhelm Roentgen when he discovered that an ore of uranium produced spots on photo paper. This lead to x-rays and other medical discoveries used to save peoples lives and explore the human body. Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassman first demonstrated nuclear fission in 1938. All these precursors directly lead to nuclear power, which in turn is the entire precursor for a drive based on nuclear thermal energy (Nuclear Age 3).

Nuclear propulsion was first proposed by Robert Goddard, although nuclear fission had not been discovered at the time. Goddard knew that the power contained within an atom would be the ideal fuel source for a rocket. After the 1940's, Goddard's vision was made closer to a reality when the discovery of nuclear fission was made. Preliminary work on Nuclear propulsion for rockets was done in 1947 by the United States, although scientists were skeptical of success due to many unknowns in the nuclear process. Beginning work was done for missile technology as a replacement for solid fuels. The work was abandoned for unknown reasons and solid fuels remain the primary source for missiles and the space shuttle (Early 1). Though liquid fuels are preferred in other countries, such as Russia.

In the late 1960's to early 1970s nuclear driven rocket research was continued by two teams known as KIWI and Nuclear Engines for Rocket Vehicle Applications (NERVA) (Nuclear 1). NERVA was directly funded and administrated by NASA. NASA wanted the NERVA propulsion units for use on a manned mission to Mars. The original reactors use hydrogen shielding to protect the outside world from the radiation generated by the reaction. Nuclear propulsion works by sending a cooled gas through the reactor and then shooting the super-heated gas out a nozzle to propel the vehicle (Space 2). After spending well over half a million dollars during this research on the nuclear thermal drive, the drive was once again abandoned. This was due to the loss of funding for the project from

25 January 12th, 2005 JHH RTW NASA after obtaining limited results, and determining that the budget required was far too large (Nuclear 1).

LANL took over where NERVA left off in 1972, using one of the drives NERVA created and the basis of another drive created for other purposes known as the PEEWEE drive, LANL began development on a drive for NASA's current shuttle craft. Specifics on the drive include: weight of the drive would have been 2555kg, used composite UC-ZRC-C fuel, total operating period 2/1, operating cycles 20/3, Specific Impulse seconds 860/875, thrust in kN of 71.6/73.0, a hydrogen flow rate of 8.5/8.5 kg/sec, thermal power of 354/367 MWt. All numbers are proposed values, which is the reason for the two number values rather than one solid number. The drive was never tested due to the cost of the unit. Proposed cost for the unit would have been 2-4 billion dollars. About a third of this was just to recover lost technology from the NERVA program, the rest would be for testing and actual creation of the unit. This price was unacceptable so the project was abandoned a second time. The proposed thrust of the unit would have been about 3 times greater then the best chemical reaction of the time, allowing for much faster acceleration of shuttles (Nuclear 1). With the end of the LANL project, the nuclear propulsion idea was brought to a close and officially abandoned by the US, until a cheaper/pre-designated method is found and can be easily implemented by NASA. In 1973 the last hope of something beyond solid chemical fuels is abandoned (Space 3).

Recently, as a result of George W Bush's drive to get men to Mars, the reopening of the nuclear propulsion drive project resumed. An official announcement was made on the subject during Bush's State of the Union address. During the State of the Union address the President made it known that man would build a moon base and then head to Mars. Towards this end, NASA has created a new agency known as Nuclear Systems Initiative (NSI). NASA had requested an official starting budget for the agency of 125.5 million dollars in 2003. More money was granted for the research involved in project Prometheus in 2004. It is estimated that the overall research and development of a nuclear thermal drive will cost well over a billion dollars. Projects in Space, such as the Mars rovers, use Radioactive Heater Units (RHUs) to keep the components of the devices from freezing.

26 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW These devices have been expanded to use the same basic reaction that creates the heat for these devices with slight modifications to generate electricity. The overall goal of the NSI is to develop project Prometheus, a thermal-nuclear drive (Berger 3).

Project Prometheus is a long term project that plans on taking small steps to the stars, and thoroughly testing each of its developments before sending them on a manned mission. One of the first flights that will see the advantages of the project is that of the Jupiter's Icy Moon Orbiter (JIMO), which NASA plans to have orbit three of Jupiter's moons: Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto. JIMO is slated to fly in 2011, no earlier. Although this might seem be moving slowly, given that the Apollo program took 7 years, it might not be enough time according to scientists that are closely watching the Prometheus projects (David 1).

The current specifications for the JIMOs reactor temperatures are 500k. This is a relatively low and well tested temperature. The Navy has operated at this temperature before, and other projects that have been done in the past that are currently providing help to NASA on the Prometheus project (Prometheus 1). It has been theorized that for spaceflight with nuclear thermal energy to be a feesable concept the reactor temperature needs to reach a temperature of around 3000 K, although temperatures as low as 2000 K might work. At the bare minimum, 1000 K must be achieved. Project Prometheus being slated for 500 k will require more cooled gas to produce the same amount of thrust that a 3000 K reactor would. This means a more massive fuel load will be required. A higher overhead weight requirement just for fuel, might be acceptable since a gas as light as hydrogen can be used. However still takes up space. Inevitably it means the vehicle must be larger and more awkward to maneuver than one operating at 2000-3000k (Why 1). Although there is still hope that the project will produce something useful, some physicists (such as Freeman Dyson) say it is silly to operate at 500 k (even for the first demonstration project) when we know how to get to 1000 k. NASA is holding firm to the belief that 500 K is enough. Given lots of testing, the short comings of the reactor maybe found before JIMO fails to reach earths lower atmosphere due to insufficient power (David 2). This technology is one of the most promising of the current research

27 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW technologies, because it is well within our grasp to get the reactor temperatures up and therefore get to space with a much faster drive.

5.2.3. Ion Drives

Ion drive technology is a prominent propulsion possibility in terms of space travel. The device works by propelling ions out of one end of the space craft to produce a forward inertia that can move a vessel through space. This is a promising technique because it does not require fuel. The major draw back is that at our current level of technology the travel time using such a propulsion technique is much greater than with rockets. That is it takes much longer than many other approaches to reach the desired destination point. While it is acceptable to take 15 months to reach the moon for an unmanned mission, this is quite a drawback for a manned mission.

Science Fiction

Ion drive technology appears in many of the more recent works of science fiction. Edward Gibson a NASA astronaut wrote a novel called Reach (1989). He describes Ion technology as a logical extension of what we can already accomplish. The drive he describes requires either nuclear, or solar cells to power it. It speeds ions to a fraction of the speed of light and propel them through the rear of the vessel. In Starfire (1988), and Nightrider (1977) the shows writers describe ion drive modifications to rocket technology that allow the use of less fuel to create greater propulsion. Similar nuclear technology ion drives appear in many current science fiction video games. In the Master of Orion series Ion drives are a step needed to achieve faster travel through space and gives one an edge on competition later. Ion drives make an important appearance in popular Star Wars movies. The fighter craft called the Tie fighters or Twin Ion Engine fighter was described by George Lucas as using ion drives for propulsion:

"The hexagonal solar panels supply power to a unique propulsion system. Microparticle accelerators propel Ionized gasses at a substantial fraction of lig htspeed..."(Lucas)

28 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW

History

Ions fascinated scientists for some time. Through ionization, many technologies have progressed. Metal plating with gold and silver is possible only due to research in to the ionization of the metals. Travel to the stars may even be possible due to the research in this field.

In 1906, Robert Goddard theorized that it might be possible to rapidly accelerate particles to high speeds without high temperatures. Forty years later, a German scientist named Dr. Ernst Stuhlinger devised a means of doing just this by realizing that if an ion was placed near an ion of the same type they would rapidly repel each other. He also conjectured that if this speed could be directed and expanded to the scale of billion or millions of particles, that a rocket could be propelled in space by this force. Dr. Stuhlinger, one of the German scientists that helped to develop the V-2 rocket. He worked for the US army after being captured at the end of World War II.

In 1955, Dr. Stuhlinger proposed his theory for an electronic system to a Vienna convention. He proposed that his system would beat out the current chemical theory, which proposed the ratio of take-off weight to final weight after propellant consumption was 25-to-1. In 1960, Dr. Stuhlinger moved his research to NASA, where he and the rest of Wernher Von Braun's team of German scientists started research on a chemical rocket to propel instruments into space. The team eventually made the Jupiter-C which was used to put the first US satellite, Explorer I in space (Ion 1).

In 1958, the US army entered in a contract for research on the first electrical propulsion drive. Dr. Stuhlinger was appointed to head a small team to explore the idea. His team decided that the ion drive would be best investigated by Electro-Optical Systems, Inc. Ten years later, in 1968, the Saturn-5 rocket of Von Braun is used for the Apollo mission is still the leading rocket technology, although it is highly inefficient when considering fuel to thrust ratios. That ion technology did not appear during this time is due to the Stuhlinger projects, running into some stumbling blocks. When the highly positive ions

29 January 12 th , 2005 JHH RTW are ejected from the drive, the craft is left with a highly negative charge, including the thrust. Since a balance is needed for equilibrium to be maintained, the highly negative drive/craft will simply re attract the exhaust to the craft, largely negating the thrust of the craft and causing the drive to fail.

Although chemical rockets are still dominant, NASA has continued its research on the ion drive. Though the drive has been impractical for launch from earth, the value of it for moving around in space is considerable. Once in orbit the small amount of thrust created by an ion drive would be enough to move a craft through the vacuum of space and eventually build up enough speed for practical space travel. Several test were run from 1961 through 1996 proving this concept (Ion 5).

In October of 1998, Deep Space 1 was launched. Deep Space 1 was a probe made to explore space and eventually meet up with a comet and transmit data to earth. Deep Space 1 contained 12 experimental devices, each one considered crucial for future development in space. One of these technologies was its propulsion system, which was a fully functional ion drive. The drive attests to the ingenuity of its designers at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratories. Although the drive still could not propel the probe from earth to orbit, it was able to take from there to the comet rendezvous. This drive, at current levels of technology, is still slow to accelerate, so is not very useful for a manned space mission, but for unmanned missions could be an ideal means of propulsion. The Deep Space 1 drive only consumed 72kg of xenon propellant after 16,246 hours of flight time. The probe was officially shut down on December 18, 2001. This is an incredibly small amount of fuel compared to that of a chemical drive (NASA 1).

Recently, within the last two years, NASA has been working on a new drive for project Prometheus. A new HiPEP or High Powered Electrical Propulsion drive was conceived as a drive for Jupiter's Icy Moon Orbiter (JIMO) mentioned in section 1.3.1. JIMO will be based on a nuclear drive, but, rather than use only thermal nuclear, it is possible that the drive, once in orbit, could then switch to the HiPEP drive, which would use a smaller amount of propellant and reduce the dangers of over heating due to the high thermal

30 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW levels of the nuclear drive. One of the major problems with thermal drives in space is that radiating heat is problematic in space, space is a near vacuum and one is therefore unable to transfer energy to surrounding particles. The nuclear drive would be able to be brought to a lower temperature and would only need to produce electrical power for the ion drive if the technologies are used jointly. (NASA2 1).

The HiPEP drive is capable of working using very little propellant. HiPEP ion drives propulsion is based on microwaves charging xenon gas and then charging a grid with 6,000 volts that creates an electrostatic field. The field pulls the charged xenon out of the drive, creating thrust when it leaves the drive: "The test was conducted in a vacuum chamber at GRC. The HiPEP ion engine was operated at power levels up to 12 kilowatts and over an equivalent range of exhaust velocities from 60,000 to 80,000 meters per second. The thruster is being designed to provide seven-to-ten-year lifetimes at high fuel efficiencies of more than 6,000-seconds specific impulse; a measure of how much thrust is generated per pound of fuel. This is a contrast to Space Shuttle main engines, which have a specific impulse of 460 seconds (NASA2 2)."

BrightSurf.com is literally saying that the thrust of the HiPEP ion drive is much more efficient than most of the chemical drives in existence. Currently NASA has not made any mention beyond that it is looking into using the HiPEP drive for JIMO scheduled for launch no earlier than 2011. BrightSur.com goes further to say that: "This new class of NEP thrusters will offer substantial performance advantages over the ion engine flown on Deep Space 1 in 1999. Overall improvements include up to a factor of 10 or more in power; a factor of two to three in fuel efficiency; a factor of four to five in grid voltage; a factor of five to eight in thruster lifetime; and a 30 percent improvement in overall thruster efficiency. GRC engineers will continue testing and development of this particular thruster model, culminating in performance tests at full power levels of 25 kilowatts (NASA2 3)."

This statement explains that not only is HiPEP better than most chemical drives, it is better than all previous versions of the ion drive and by a significant amount. This might mean the ion drive will be used on more deep space missions.

31 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW 5.2.4. MagBeam Propulsion

Magnetized-plasma beam propulsion technology is a promising approach to traveling extreme distances in space. Magbeam technology works by using a laser beam aboard a satellite to power a vessel independent of the power source. This technology has the advantage of speed, it is theorized that with of this metod we could reach Mars in 90 days, also one satellite can power several space craft greatly bringing down the cost of the device. The major disadvantage to this approach is it has not been tested on such a large scale, and there are some reservations about spending money on setting up the technology.

Science Fiction

Magbeam technology has some basis within science fiction. Larry Niven is a writer who mentions this technology quite frequently. Magbeam propulsion appears in two of his literary works Mote in God's Eye (1973), and Warriors (1966). Niven discusses the use of laser battery to propel a vessel through space in the Mote in God's Eye (1973). In Warriors (1966) Niven discusses a laser from a satellite used to propel vessels through space.

History

Mag-beam is a rather new theory. Since President Bush started the initiative for a moon base and NASA is doing everything in their power to make that dream possible. Toward that end, NASA has offered 12 grants to scientists that produce a proof of concept that is at least mildly feasible. A beginning grant of 75,000 dollars is given to each of the 12 ideas that were proposed and for six-months the 12 study groups attempt to prove that the idea they represent is feasible. Any of the projects that make it beyond the first stage of the process gets 400,000 dollars over the course of two years. The 400,000 dollars is to be used for continued development and testing of the projects. The Mag-Beam proposed by Winglee (University of Washington) propulsion program is one of these twelve projects (Stricherz 1).

32 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW

Mag-beam technology, or magnetized-beam plasma propulsion, is based on a stationary, orbital station that produces a plasma beam that will hit a space craft and propel it from the boost of the plasma beam. This literally means that the Mag-Beam propulsion will not be an onboard propulsion measure; rather, it will be a completely separate unit. One plasma beam would need to be used for acceleration, starting slowly and eventually getting to max thrust and then shutting down. It can shut down due to there being a lack of sufficient matter in space to slow a vehicle in space, seeing as space is a vacuum, so therefore the vehicle would continue on indefinitely until it either hit another solid object or an equal and opposite force was applied. Without an onboard propulsion system, there needs to be another Mag-Beam station at the arrival point so that an equal and opposite force can be applied to decelerate the vehicle that was propelled forward to a stop. This would mean sending the second station on an unmanned flight before the manned mission or other unmanned mission could be sent the faster route, but, anything is an improvement (Is 2).

The University of Washington is the project leader, or the home base of the developers of the idea. This project is headed by Professor Robert Winglee, Professor of Earth and Space science. Winglee has theorized that with a 32 meter wide control nozzle, a plasma beam would allow for a maximum speed of 11.7 kilometers per sec. The translation of this into miles per hour is 26,000, or more than 625,000 miles in a day. Mars, on average, is 48 million miles away. At the current speed predictions of 625,000 miles a day it would take 74 days to reach Mars. This is a vast improvement compared to the current predictions that on rocket propelled vessels it will take 2 and a half years to reach Mars. Winglee was noted to say that he hopes, with future advancements, to reduce travel time to 90 days there and back. At the current level of technology, it is predicted to cost well over one billion dollars for an intial investment into the project, but after this it should be minimal, limited to repairs to the vessel (Stricherz 1).

The current predictions for power sources for the stations are those of solar power for those close to the sun and nuclear reactors for those stations sent to deeper parts of the

33 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW galaxy. The vessel to be propelled will need protection from the plasma beam, an electro- magnetic field will be used as a sail for the energy to be shot into. The EM field will also be used as a shield for the vessel against any stray energy that hits the vessel. This is also possible with current technology, and Winglee says that the project could be completely up and running within five years, at least in enough time for NASA's Jupiter Icy Moon Orbiter mission in 2011, so that the JIMO can drop off one of the stations for missions to Jupiter's moons in the future (Is 4).

5.2.5. Summary

There are many promising technologies under investigation that can advance the field of space propulsion. Many of these technologies have appeared in science fiction. They begin as ideas and spark discussion and development within science fiction and the scientific community. As the science advances in man y cases the science fiction either keeps pace or acts as a precursor to the scientific development that follow, and is realized in the end.

5.3. Shielding

5.3.1. Introduction This section discusses the highly controversial field of shielding. Shielding covers both radiation shielding as well as physical protective shielding, such as electromagnetic force fields and other forms that protect from both physical and heat damage. Shields will be discussed in both science fiction and science fact.

5.3.2. Science Fiction

Shielding exists in many forms across various works of science fiction. Shielding acts to protect the space vehicle given all of the natural, and military concerns facing a space vessel. In many of the most popular science fiction shields are a pervasive and necessary quality. Shields serve to disrupt weapons fire, absorb radiation, and absorb impacts. The type of shielding that is most common in modern science fiction is that created through an electromagnetic field, or a force field which is a common reference to such a barrier.

34 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Though in many works of science fiction shields are broken up into two categories those made of metal, and those produced by the force between electricity and magnetism.

Electromagnetic shields work by using the forces of electricity and magnetism to work upon an object. The most notable appearance of shielding is in the Star Trek series. In Star Trek electromagnetic shields are believed to be capable of blocking most forms of radiation. They are also capable of absorbing some forms of physical impacts, however they cannot absorb the impact of a sizable object capable of accelerating the spaceship. This fact makes seems true in that we now from testing an object can create a greater force (in this case motion) that can overcome the electromagnetic force(Wong). In addition, shields in the Star Trek series can absorb energy. Star Wars takes a similar approach to electromagnetic shielding. The shields are capable of absorbing some physical impacts, however for the most part they are useful in protecting against radiation, and absorbing energy from beams of various kinds. The more recently popular StarGate (1997) series discusses shielding in the sense of simply absorbing the energy from weapons fire. Though they are capable of absorbing some very small impacts like bullets, they are incapable of deflecting both large and slow moving objects. In addition they offer limited protection from radiation.

Gravity Fields are another form of force field technology that is pervasive in science fiction. The most notable occurrence of gravity shielding is the death star in Star Wars. The death star was capable of pulling vessels toward it, and possibly tearing them apart using gravitational forces. Star Trek uses a similar technology called the Tractor beam which was used to pull and push objects away from the host vessel.

A popular and most basic form of shielding is the use of armor. In the Season finale of the series Star Trek: Voyager, the ship uses a metal shield that forms around the vessel to protect it from weapons fire. What is notable about this is that though it seems crude this technology is superior to that of using electromagnetic shielding. In the series StarGate(1997) a combination of the armor and electromagnetic shielding is used. The human vessels in that series are made of a metal called trinium that can be refined to protect against impacts and radiation.

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5.3.3. History

The literal definition of shielding as stated by dictionary.com is: "To protect or defend with or as if with a shield; guard (Shielding 1)." Shields have been around since man first started making armor. Their first uses were to deflect damage from mobile sources, such as spears of an attacker or claws of an attacking beast. The most common type of shield was the large metal shield known as the Heater, or kite shield. The Zulu warriors of Africa created a shield almost as strong as metal out of wood and Rhino hide. No shield was a match for bullets, but arrows and swords could easily be turned by a shield (Shield 1).

In 1896 x-rays were discovered by Wilhelm Conrad Röntgen while experimenting with the ionization of particles in an attempt to see the effects of electrons and protons. This required charging a gas using high voltage and using a cathode and anode. Once the gas is charged, it is released toward a test tube that has a cardboard wrapping that does not allow visible light through. Röntgen went through the experiment once, although he was working in the dark. At the end of the experiment he noticed that a fluorescence had appeared across from the opening of the cathode. This, Röntgen discovered, was the remains of an x-ray (X-Ray 1).

X-rays were one of the first forms of radiation that shielding was used against. Beyond that of protection against the sun, X-rays were first shielded against by heavy sheets of lead. Newer techniques are used to calculate the exact thickness that is required to protect a human body against the harmful effects of x-rays. Many harmful radiations like X-rays have been identified. The sun can cause cancer if a person stays in it too long, essentially damaged skin like sunburns and tans can lead to various forms of skin cancer. Nuclear reactors also create Alpha, Beta, and Gamma radiation. Another form of radiation is that of heat. Heat radiation can be a major problem in space, both for protecting a space craft

36 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW from heat caused by re-entry into an atmosphere and from heat radiation caused by a power source that generates huge amounts of heat, such as a nuclear reactor onboard a ship (Star Wars 1).

Current space shuttles have minimal shielding of any kind. For protection against re- entry, shuttles use black tiles on the nose and other key areas to protect against the friction of the upper atmosphere while reentry is occurring. These tiles do not generally survive the reentry process and require replacement, adding to maintenance costs. Also, NASA has begun looking into using thermal nuclear power to move and power its newest shuttle for the project Prometheus. Unfortunately, in space, excess heat cannot be radiated easily due to the lack of particles in the vacuum. This means that somehow the excess energy from the thermal nuclear reactor must be dealt with (NASA's 1).

Shields have only recently been seriously considered for space craft. Minimal shielding has so far been used to protect astronauts from the hazards of space. A shuttle is composed primarily of aluminum which has almost no radiation protection properties. NASA has under development several new technologies that will be useful for both the protection of astronauts as well as the protection of the shuttle craft (NASA's 1).

NASA, as of January 13, 2004, has announced that Aerogel is the new insulation of choice. As a shield, it can be a new substance to replace the archaic black tiles that are costly to replace. This "aerogel" can be used by ejecting it out while preparing for reentry and the gel will be burned away, causing no damage to the actual vessel, and therefore making it so that no costly repairs are needed. Aerogel also has the interesting property of being an exceptional insulation. Anything that keeps heat in can be used as a shield against the cold of outer space. Aerogel has been used on several missions, such as the Mars rovers and Spacelab II. Aerogel is sometimes known as "frozen smoke." It is the lightest known solid to man. It is hoped that within the next several years Aerogel will be made clearer so that it can be used for homes in the form of window insulation. For now its non-transparent form is an excellent shield against heat and cold alike. Aerogel works so well as an insulation that it can protect crayons from melting when placed near a

37 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW butane torch and the Mars rovers from freezing during the -100 degrees Celsius nights of Mars. A single inch of aerogel works as well as 32" of glass as insulation (Right 2).

NASA, in conjunction with the military, is also working on cold plasma. Cold plasma was theorized in the 19th century, although it has been impossible to create until just recently. Cold plasma has many interesting properties as a shield. When used, due to electrical prosperities of the plasma, it can act as a cloaking device against radar. Also, it has the interesting property that it can stop electrical pulses, such as lasers and microwaves. With laser technology ever increasing in strength and mobility, cold plasma might see use on the battlefield some day. Currently, cold plasma requires a large source of power to activate its electromagnetic properties, meaning a power source such as a thermal nuclear reactor is required to make it useful. Current prospects for this technology are to use it on satellites as cloaking against attacks made by other countries attempting to destroy the US's satellite networks. So far testing has confirmed that solar power is enough to power the cloaking shield, but current technologies limit the use of cold plasma as a viable option for shielding against laser attacks. The weight of the equipment, and the power levels required, are just too great for a satellite. The cost of putting the satellite into space would be too great to make it a feasible option at the moment. As an interesting side effect, anything that passes through cold plasma is sterilized, so the medical applications of cold plasma are also very interesting (Force 1).

There is work being done on electromagnetic shielding to be used for containing the explosion caused by starting a fusion reaction. Rumors have it that current electromagnetic technology can stop a cannon ball or bullet, but not much more. Also, a fusion reaction has yet to be successfully started, meaning that it is obvious that our current level of magnetic shielding cannot contain the reaction (Landis 1).

Missions to Mars will expose astronauts and equipment alike to radiation for extended amounts of time. One of these hazards to electrical equipment was seen when one of the Mars rovers had flash memory problems caused by a bit being swapped and therefore a restart loop was being constantly initiated. To stop such an occurrence in future missions

38 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW some of NASA's scientists have turned to electromagnetic fields. Robert Youngquist, a physicist who leads the KSC-Applied Physics Lab at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, is leading a team that believes some of the more "out there" ideas might be the solution to many of NASA's manned and unmanned problems with space. As reported by Space. com: "Youngquist's team envisions a spacecraft equipped with what's called a multipole electrostatic radiation shield, a radiation guard made up of three, electrically charged spheres set in a line along the axis of the ship. The center sphere, set close or even attached to the crew module, would be positively charged, while two outrigger spheres on either side would carry a negative charge. Together, the combination should be enough to repel both high-energy protons and electrons that would otherwise penetrate a spacecraft (Malik I)." Youngquist key problem in developing in this technology is finding a power source that can maintain the energy levels that will be required to maintain an electrostatic field of this magnitude. Along these same lines, the water being carried on a manned mission can act as a shield if contained in the hull of a ship. Hydrogen, being one of the elements with very small atomic mass, is highly unlikely to break off into secondary particles when bombarded by higher energy particles. With respect to unmanned missions, this might mean the addition of a hydrogen layer to the outer hull of the unmanned vehicle as an extra layer of protection against solar radiation (Malik 2).

5.3.4. Summary

Shielding is the technology of protection. In space protection can be a very important issue to both scientists and science fiction authors. Shielding exists principally in the form of armor, however it is beginning to be developed in the form of energy and forces. Science fiction seems to be at the fore front of this development proposing ideas and presenting questions to further the scientific research.

5.4. Energy Storage Science Fiction Energy storage is something that is relatively recent when considering the length that some technologies in space science have existed. Energy Storage is mainly discussed in conjunction with a propulsion system or a system that generates energy for the craft, or any other system that requires electrical power.

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Energy Storage takes many forms. One of its forms is that of an atom. A single atom contains a large amount of power, when considering its ability to fuse with another atom, or being split. Nuclear reactions are a form of energy storage or rather the plutonium/uranium used for the reactions contains stored energy in the form of atomic energy. Atomic energy appears in many science fiction films and novels, whether for electrical power or for the purpose of propulsion. Novels that use nuclear power for propulsion have been mentioned previously in section 5.2.2 which discusses propulsion technologies. Along these lines, several science fiction writers that use nuclear power for energy have been mentioned in section 5.3, where shielding was explored. Star Wars is the most prominent example of nuclear power being used for ion drive power generation and for general electrical power. In Star Wars, the nuclear power is in the form of fusion reactors. What is used for fuel for the fusion reactors is not discussed, but it is the main power source for all the capital ships.

Even our current forms of fuel for heating homes and generating power are considered energy storage. The reason for this is that energy is waiting to be released in these fuels: like wood, coal, and oil. One of these types of energy storage is antimatter. There are many complications to antimatter fuel sources. One is the major release of energy involved when antimatter and matter are put into contact with each other. Antimatter has some striking drawbacks, but those are primarily concerns of feasibility. One of Antimatters first appearances is the novel by J. Williamson called "Seetee stories" (1940). In these stories they discuss a world based on antimatter and matter-antimatter interactions. In "Storm," (1943) written by A.E.Van Voght, a giant storm is created in space by a normal cloud of gases coming in contact with a cloud created by antimatter particles. This is an example of how writers conceive of the energy that antimatter could release. The next major step in Science fiction antimatter was made by J Bridger in 1950. In Bridger's novel "I am a stranger here myself," mankind learns to travel faster then light speed by transforming matter into antimatter. More recent uses of antimatter uses appear in Star Trek where interactions between antimatter-matter are used for power generation. Star Trek started in 1969, and movies and TV shows still run today.

40 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW One novel that mentions black power, is The women in Del Rey Crater written in 1995 by Larry Niven:

What's finally knocked the bottom out is this new solar electric paint. Black Power, they call it. It turns sunlight into electricity, just like any solar power converter, but you spray it on. Place your cables and then spray over them. All you need is sunlight and room.(Niven)

History A Fuel Cell is a device that converts chemical reactions into electrical energy. The first fuel cell was developed in 1839 by William Grove. This cell consisted of two electrodes of hydrogen and oxygen submerged in sulfuric acid. There are several Different types of fuel cells. The most common are Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM), Alkaline (AFC), Direct Methanol (DMFC), Phosphoric Acid (PAFC), Molten Carbonate (MCFC) and Solid Oxide (SOFC). SOFC was developed in 1899, and PEM was not developed until 1960 by GE for the space program. Until recently there has been little development into fuel cell research; however the technology has advanced enough in the last 30 years to make fuel cells a viable alternative to protoplasm and other fossil fuels.

The fuel cell that is of relevance to this project is the PEM fuel cell. PEM is the most promising fuel cell technology. It does not generate vast amounts of heat, and is becoming increasingly inexpensive. The current rate is about $3000/kw which is much cheaper than many other technologies. This device works by allowing protons to transfer from the hydrogen plate to the oxygen plate, and the only by product is fresh water. Its power capabilities range from about lkw to 100kw.

Alkaline Fuel Cells are used primarily by NASA. These are some of the most efficient fuel cells available however, and like PEMS have water as a byproduct. The problem with Alkaline Fuel Cells is they require very pure gasses, which make them too expensive to for practical use at the moment.

41 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Phosphoric Fuel cells are typically used for small scale power generation. They get warmer than PEMS but not by a significant margin, and they do not require pure gasses for operation.

Molten Carbonate and Solid Oxide fuel cells are the most suitable for large scale power generation, they have the largest efficiency >85%, and the most stable power output. The problem is that high temperatures accompany this efficiency, typically temperatures ranging from 800-100 degrees Fahrenheit.

There is not much scientific research to black power, but it could be an important development in terms of space exploration. Black power works by spraying black paint on to a flat surface to convert that surface into a solar panel. This is not a baseless concept as we already have a form of black power in operation. Some forms of black paint are used to absorb heat energy from the sun in order to heat a room. The problem comes with the integrated circuits needed to produce current. This discovery would be significant to space exploration because it could potentially reduce the cost of creating solar panels which are currently quite expensive.

5.5. Summary

In this chapter the histories of the science fiction and the research for the areas of propulsion, shielding, and energy storage were discussed. Specifically, propulsion was broken into the specific areas of Magbeam technology, nuclear drives, ion drives, and Solar sails. Shielding was broken into Aerogel, cold plasma, and EM fields for the research while the science fiction literature mainly focuses on EM fields. Energy Storage was broken into fuel cells, and black power, while the science fiction covers antimatter in addition. Throughout each the history of the development of the technologies in science fiction and in research is documented.

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6. Results

6.1. Introduction

In this chapter the results of our research and a discussion of those results is presented. The extent to which our theory about the causality between science fiction and scientific discovery is evaluated based upon the progression over time between science fiction literature and scientific discovery.

6.2. Shielding Results

Shielding is an area of significant concern when addressing space exploration. The question we wish to answer is to what extent science fiction has influenced the breakthroughs in the area of shielding. To address this concern we will be referring to the table below which organizes the science and the science fiction literature into a timeline fashion for comparison. As can be seen in the table we can see that the science fiction research predates the scientific research by a considerable margin. However, we must be careful, we cannot determine from this data that the relationship between science fiction and scientific research is causal. It is obvious that research into electromagnetic fields has been developing since the 19th century. Perhaps we may not have considered the possibility of using electromagnetic fields to create a shield to protect a space ship until the recent decades, but there is not enough proof to say the relationship in this case is causal. Therefore we can say there is a provocative relationship between the science and the science fiction but we don't have enough evidence to say this relationship is causal. Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Research 1920 Buck Rogers Comic 1980 EM fields studied for Fusion 1935 Flash Gordon 2001 EM fields for use with Magbeam 1966 Star Trek 2018 Prometheus test probe 1969 Star Wars episode IV 1996 Stargate SG1

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2004 Stargate: Atlantis

6.3. Propulsion Results

Propulsion is both a psychological and biological as well as a technical problem. The psychological and biological aspects occur when we begin to address the concern of speed. To understand this point, consider that the universe will exist essentially beyond our scope of time. So why is it that most science fiction writers, and are own scientists our concerned so much with speed? The answer is the human equation. The distances are so great that even a human lifetime seems too short if the rate of travel is not "astronomical". The human element affects space travel in many forms first we are not designed genetically for travel in space. This requires that when developing a space craft, the amount of time the pilots and scientists can spend in the spacecraft must be significantly reduced. The impact of even 6-12 months in space on the human body's muscle mass, bone density and attention span is striking. We seem to need gravity to stay healthy. How much is not yet clear. The second method that puts stress on propulsion research is our own changing geopolitical climate. Stability is not something that accurately describes the world. Organizations that can sustain long term missions are problematic. To determine if science fiction drives the research into this area we have formed a table matching up the time lines of research for the 4 most popular technological techniques of accomplishing faster space travel.

Our first example is nuclear technology. Nuclear technology has been under research for a century, and had perhaps its greatest breakthrough during the Second World War. During the cold war we began to use nuclear reactors to propel submarines through our oceans. It is around this time that it shows up in the science fiction, which can be seen in the table. This already proves our theory incorrect as nuclear systems were being used on earth in a variety of ways before they showed up in the science fiction. As with force field technology we can make the case that the science fiction came up with the idea of using the technology in space, but given the time line approach we cannot state definitively that the relationship between science fiction and science here is causal,

44 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW without testimony from those working on the technologies and NASA policy priorities for investigation. So again we have suggested that there is a relationship but we cannot determine at this point if the relationship is causal.

Nuclear Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Research/er 1966 Star Trek 1947 US research 1973 Star Wars Episode IV 1960's NASA's NERVA research 1990 Masters of Orion 1972 LANL shuttle drive 1990- Nightsdawn 2001 Project Prometheus 1999 1999 Sex and Violence in 2018 Prometheus test Launch Zero-G 2002 2061

Our second example is the ion drive. The first scientific research into ion drives occurs in the 1950s. Following that NASA performs significant research into the subject, and during that time period some of the popular science fiction works on the subject are produced. In this example we can see there is not any driving force by the science fiction that brings about the research in fact in this case it is more probable that the science drove the science fiction. Again we have determined that there is a relationship between the two but we certainly do not have enough evidence to claim causality. In fact, the science fiction role seems to have been to refuse to give up on an idea that did not pan out for NASA, which was thinking about a drive to achieve orbit and then coast to the moon at the time. This one is not suitable for blastoff to LEO, but the science fiction writers looked ahead to deep space missions adopted it anyway and NASA regained interest in the idea enough to develop it for unmanned missions. Science fiction claims it will be coupled with something else to give it a kick start and end up in manned ships as well.

6.3.1. Ion Drive

45 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Research/er 1973 Star Wars 1955 Dr. Stuhlinger NASA research 1977 Nightrider 1961- Significant testing of NASA 1990 drives 1983 Starfire 1998 Deep Space 1 launch 1990 Masters of Orion 2004 Research for HiPEP for Prometheus 2018 Prometheus test Launch

Our third example within the field of propulsion is Magnetized-plasma beam technology. The prospect of separating a power supply from the source vessel, and using a beam to push a vessel through space does appear in the science fiction before it does in the scientific research. So in this example we have the closest case to proving that the science fiction fuels the scientific discovery. But again we do not have enough evidence to prove without doubt that we have causality.

6.3.2. Magbeam

Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Research/er 1966 Warrior 2001 Project Prometheus UW 1973 Mote in God's Eye 2018 Prometheus test probe

Our fourth and final example within the field of propulsion is solar sails. This approach is considered somewhat radical. The timeline depicts this fact, as we can see many times there is work done within the science fiction followed by work in the science. In this case we can make the best possible argument that the relationship is causal. Indeed the timeline suggests just that the issue we have is dates that are too close together. Take for instance the 1867 science fiction to the 1873 science. That is within six years, so there may have been rumblings about the theory before it was written into the science fiction or definitive research was done and publisehd. This is not necessarily true either, only that

46 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW it is a likely interpretation one could draw from the data on timing. So in this example we can say that we feel there may be a causal relationship, but the time line approach does not give us enough evidence to say with confidence that the science fiction writers got there first. We can claim with confidence that science turned another way (to rockets), no technology was developed at the early start, then the science fiction literature resurfaced and developed the idea. NASA finally taking note a decade later, and coincidently fuels even more concurrent science fiction. NASA then takes another generation off and 10 years after Star Trek adopts the idea, and NASA gets serious about planning a test flight. Meanwhile, the Planetary Society has raised private money to carry out a test, as a protest against NASA's timidity and lack of vision in this area.

6.3.3. Solar Sail Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Researcher 1867 From Earth to the Moon 1960 NASA's Langley Research Center 1951 Clipper Ships in Space 2001 NASA Project Prometheus Research 1960 The Lady who Sailed 2010 Test probe launch the Soul 1962 Sail 25 1963 Sunjammer 1992 Star Trek: DS9

47 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW 6.4. Energy Storage Results

Energy storage technology is a technology that has a few anomalies that make it a little more difficult to perform an analysis such as this. We have fuel cells that go back a few decades, and though they were considered science fiction at the time they were proposed developed shortly thereafter never really entering the science fiction literature before the science was undertaken. Many other forms of energy storage are a cross between energy and propulsion. The two major technologies that have an impact are that of antimatter and black power discussed below.

Black power is the process of using paint to make solar panels. As can be seen from the table the idea is relatively new in the both the science fiction and the science is considered very speculative. As in some of our other examples the proximity of the dates is a cause of concern, and we can say that there is certainly a relationship between the science fiction and the science, but not causality.

Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Research/er 1995 The women in Del Ray 1999 Research into Black Power source Crater (NASA) No known conclusions to research

Antimatter technology could produce a great deal of energy. At the moment it is not feasable. However the table shows that though the idea of using antimatter as a reactor occurs in star trek first it may have been proposed by a scientist. Significant research however didn't begin until at least a decade. Here we can also see that there is a

48 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW relationship between the science fiction and the science in which the science fiction may be pushing the applied science, but not the theory.

Science Fiction Science Fact Year Name Year Research/er 1966 Star Trek 1980 Research into Antimatter Power source (MIT) No slated launch for projects

6.5. Summary

In this section we presented our findings on our research of scientific research, and science fiction. WE have demonstrated that there is a relationship. We were not able to prove that the relationship is causal. The evidence proved that there is a provocative correlation between the timing of the science and science fiction. This is an important discovery in that a relationship between the two may imply that scientific development is at simulated and directed with the help of outsiders in science fiction. A plan to determine if this relationship is causal is presented in the proposed future research section of within the conclusion of this paper.

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7. Conclusion

7.1. Result Analysis The purpose of this project is to determine the influence of science fiction on scientific research by taking the areas of propulsion, shielding, and energy storage and examines at their histories in science fact and fiction. For this part of the paper, the results will be compared to the original goal and an analysis of progress will be made.

The first objective that was identified was to locate each of the three technologies in fiction. Toward this end propulsion seemed to be our most successful search result, as propulsion has the most information. Shielding had a moderate amount of information, while energy storage seemed to overlap a good deal with propulsion, and there fore had the least amount of data points. All had rather unique histories, and our research determined that the whole history of the technologies needed to be explored rather than just the past 50 to 60 years of the technologies, as their rate of progress and breaks in development are as relevant as the periods of active research attention.

The second objective was to determine the development of the scientific research in the areas of propulsion, shielding, and energy storage. In the cases of both propulsion and energy storage, we came up with considerable information and some data points. We ended up with a fairly in depth knowledge of the current state of the technology. Shielding had fewer results in the area of electromagnetic shields, but came back with results in cold plasma and Aerogel, which were somewhat different then what was expected. Once again, it was pertinent to look farther than the originally stated 50 to 60 years, since certain theories about the technologies were stated long before 50 to 60 years, as well as some important research having been started in the 1930's. We feel the objective of getting enough information to establish a time sequence for 5-6 technologies were reached.

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The final objective was to compare what was found in the research of the science fiction and science fact. This main comparison was seen during the discussion in the results section. The results were not completely as theorized. In the results section it was described that the scientific research, especially for ion drive technology and for nuclear drive technology, preceded the science fiction that developed the concepts. Although there is a relationship, its direction is not as clear cut as we had thought it would be. In several cases, as with solar sails and shielding, it is true that the science fiction preceded the technology by a considerable period., but Fuel Cells never appeared in science fiction before NASA had a working model. The future works section discusses what could be done for the continuation of the project.

7.2. Future Work As a part of any major project, ideas for continuations to that project are likely to be thought of and should be proposed to future researchers. This project is no exception to this, and as such two major ideas for further work have occurred. One is along the same path, examine the literature and see what the history and present technologies are for other countries with different science fiction traditions than the United States. The second is to continue the work done by this group and simply get direct information from scientists and authors as to whether science fiction has influenced their research, or whether the science research literature alone influenced their proposals and plans.

Continuing this project with respects to other nations is an important form of future work. In the book In The Stream of Stars: The Soviet/American Space Art Book, we can see that there is an obvious difference between the artists drawings of space. Russian pictures seem to depict space as being chaotic, and perhaps holding unforeseen negative forces that we cannot handle. Where as the American pictures of space depict serene environments that are essentially clean slates ready to be formed by man. This difference in prospective is important when considering our project in that we believe that culture in our case science fiction, influences scientific development. In our project we have covered the United States in great detail, however stayed away from the history and mythos of foreign powers. That said, another project can be to repeat our project for

51 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Russia. This would essentially be done using the same methodology, either by using the interne, or library research to gather information about the scientific history, and the science fiction literature within Russia. It might be necessary to have a Russian speaking student, though we believe that many works of science fiction have likely been translated into English. The objective here is to perform the same research from Russia, and determine how the mythos effects the scientific development, and perhaps generate an idea as to which technologies will receive the most attention from each country.

Along the same lines of doing research pertaining to the Russia, and how its culture, and mythos influence scientific development the oriental nations of Japan and china are also of great interest. Pervasive in the science fiction literature of Japan that has begun to flow into the United States are robotics. Shows like Astor Boy, and video games like Megaman have been around for decades, and continue to be both popular and renewed today. Within American science fiction robotics are not as emphasized, with obvious exceptions of R2D2, C3PO, and Lt Commander Data of Star Wars and Star Trek. Even within these examples robots are often depicted as being subhuman and quite inferior. The question should be answered as to what extent this differing view within the mythos will result in which technologies the Japanese will view as important to develop and which will receive less attention. In the case of china the project will be significantly more difficult to perform as there is significantly less cross cultural influence. To do this same research in regards to china a student that speaks, and can read Chinese will be necessary.

Continuing the work that was done on this project directly and to make a direct correlation between science fiction and science- fact several steps will need to be taken. Primarily, the need to find the inspirations of the scientists that began the current research in the fields that were discussed in this paper. Doing this in the most efficient manner would require a letter or e-mail to be sent to the leaders of the projects doing the current research on the fields. The letter to be sent has been provided by this team in the appendix of this paper. For the further purpose of continuing this project, Professors from several different departments should also be asked as to how they feel about science

52 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW fiction and if science fiction has ever influenced any of their work. It might be imperative to have members of the future groups doing this portion of the project be from fields in the sciences so that professor are easier to access and have at least some knowledge of the students asking them these questions. At least one engineer and one general scientists from fields such as biology, chemistry, or physics, should be part of this project. This way not just engineers are asked, also general science professors can be involved. A general survey for students could be formulated, but is less likely to have the impact that teachers of the fields as well as the engineers researching the current technologies discussed in this paper.

Through these methods the project that was started with this paper can be continued and brought closer to a final and more definite conclusion. Through these means a more recognized argument can be made that science fiction influences the research of current science technology.

7.3. Summary

Throughout this document the histories of several technologies, both real and science fiction, have been discussed. The purpose of this is to examine the areas of propulsion, shielding, and energy storage and look at their histories in science fact and fiction, then determine the influence of the fiction on the fact. To this end the full history of several areas of technologies; propulsion, shielding, and energy storage; both in science fiction and in research, were explored.

At the beginning of this project certain assumptions and acknowledgements were made. An assumption that we made for example was that the science fiction literature that was used was firmly routed in science. Also, an acknowledgement to the sociological impact of science fiction literature was discussed in section 2.3. The purpose of this section was to create a link to social implications for this project.

53 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW During the course of this project information on specific technologies was found in the areas that were previously mentioned. In the area of propulsion, the histories of Magbeam, Ion drive, Nuclear drive, and Solar Sails were explored. Shielding history was discussed in regards to the specific technologies of Aerogel, Electromagnetic (EM) fields, and cold plasma, with EM fields being the main focus for the science fiction authors. Energy storages specific technology history included black power and antimatter, with the research including information covering fuel cells.

In the end, the conclusion of this team is that more research, including specific information from the heads of the development teams of the specific technologies mentioned above, is required before any final statement can be made about whether the relationship is causal. From the analysis of the information available, the results do not specifically conclude that science fiction has any specific relationship with scientific research. It is apparent that work from section 7.2 (Future Works) is needed to make a definitive statement as to how science fiction effects research of technologies in reality

54 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Resources Overview Batchelor, David Allen. The Science of Star Trek http://ssdoo.gsfc.nasa.gov/education/just for fun/startrek.html November 6, 2004 Landis, Geoffery A. Magnetic Radiation Shielding: An Idea Whose Time Has Returned? http://www.islandone.org/Settlements/MagShield.html November 14, 2004 ACH American Cultural History. Kingwood College Library http://kclibrary.nhmccd.edu/decade50.html November 10,2004 AT&T labs. http://www.att.com/attlabs/reputation/timeline/1950.html November 10, 2004 Best Buy. http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?id —cat03001&type—category November 10 2004 FAS. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/ November 10, 2004 Kid Compute. http://wvvvv.kidcompute.com/1950s.html November 13, 2004 Trek shields, Star Trek: Federation Shields http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Shields/Shieldl.html November 14, 2004 Star Wars. Star Wars Technoogy, Coming to a galaxy near you. NASA http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/healines/scl9ma_y99 1.htm. November 6 2004 Wars Shields. Star Wars: Imerpial shields http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Shields/Shield2.html November 14 2004 Propulsion Berger, Brian White House Go-Ahead On NASA Nuclear Prometheus Project http://www. space. com/businesstechnology/technology/nuclearpower 030117. html November 15, 2004

David, Leonard Prometheus: The Paradigm Buster http://www. space. com/businesstechnol ogy/technology/new paradigm_ 030702-1.html November 15,2004 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Stricherz, Vince New propulsion concept could make 90-day Mars round trip possible http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1245207/posts November 15, 2004

Cosmol http: //spacecraftkits. com/cosmosl/index . html. November 15, 2004

Early History FAS http://www.fas.org/nuke/space/c02early.htm November 15, 2004

Is a 90-day Mars round trip possible via new propulsion? http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0410/16marspropulsion/ November 15, 2004

Ion propulsion http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/prop06apr99_2.htm November 15, 2004

NASA Glenn Provided Critical Technologies for Deep Space 1 Mission http://wwvv.grc.nasa. gov/WWW/PAO/dsl.htm November 15, 2004

NASA2 NASA successfully tests ion engine Brightsurfcorn http://www. brightsurf com/news/nov_03/NA SA news_112103.php November 15, 2004

NUCLEAR ROCKET PROPULSION - THE 1960s FAS http://www.fas.org/nuke/space/c04rover.htm November 15, 2004

Nuclear Age Timeline EM http://web.em.doe.gov/timeline/pre40s.html November 15, 2004

Setting Sail for the Stars http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast28jun_lm.htm November 15, 2004

Space:History NS&T http://www.aboutnuclear.org/view.cgi?fC=Space,History November 15, 2004

Why Nuclear Thermal Propulsion? Innovative Nuclear Space Power and Propulsion Institute http://www.inspi.uftedu/research/ntp/why/index.html November 15, 2004

Shielding Malik, Tariq. Shields Up! New Radiation Protection for Spacecraft and Astronauts http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technolou/rad_shield_040527.html November 19, 2004

Force Fields and 'Plasma' Shields Get Closer to Reality http://www. space. com/businesstechnology/technology/cold asma_000724. html November 19, 2004

ii January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW NASA'S Nuclear Prometheus Project Viewed as Major Paradigm Shift http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/prometheus_030207.html November 19, 2004

Right Stuff for the Super Stuff http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/msad26oct98_1.htm November 19 2004

Shielding htt ://dictionary.reference.com/search?=shield November 19, 2004

Shield History http://www.armadilloan-nory.com/hxshield.htm November 19, 2004

Star Wars. Star Wars Technology, Coming to a galaxy near you. NASA http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/healines/scl9may99_1.htm. November 6 2004

X-Ray History http://www.lixi.com/xray.htm November 19, 2004

Energy Storage Mondardini, Rosy. Antimatter Everyday http://livefromcern.web.cern.ch/livefromcern/antimatter/everyday/AM-everyday03.html November 28, 2004

Energy and technological breakthroughs : science fiction or foreseeable future? http://www.cea.fr/gb/publications/Clefs44/an-clefs44/clefs4491a.html November 27,2004

Energy Storage http://www.energy.rochester.edu/storage/ November 27, 2004

Imagination and Innovation

The Time 100: Robert Goddard http://www. time. com/time/time100/scientist/profi le/goddard02. html

Wilson, Edward The Future of Life Random House Inc. 2002

Sclove, Richard, Fron Alchemy to Atomic War: Frederick Soddy's "technology Assessment" of Atomic Energy, Science, Technology, and Human Values, Vol. 14 No.2, Sage publications 1989 163-194

Westrum, Ron, Science and Social Intelligence about Anomalies: The Case of Meteorites, Social Studies of Science, Sage, London and Beverly Hills, Vol. 8 1978, pp 461-493

Vonnegut, Kurt Player Piano, Delta Trade Paperbacks, New York 1952

111 January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Dyson, Freeman J., The Sun, the Genome, and the Internet tools of Scientific Revolution, Oxford University press, New York 1999

Bradbury, Ray, In the Stream of Stars: The Soviet/American Space Art Book, Workman Publishing, New York, 1990

iv January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW Appendix

A. Breakthrough Additions

The following descriptions were additions to a survey created to determine what scientists believe are possible. The following descriptions were added to the survey by this team, both as help to the team doing the survey and to determine what contribution the technologies that were discovered during this project would have toward future development in space travel.

Nuclear Drive — Thermal nuclear drives are based primarily on nuclear reactions causing high temperatures which is then used to heat water, or a similar liquid, to vapor. The vapor is then used to either generate power for use in propulsion. For propulsion, the vapor is forced out an exhaust port to create thrust. However, the use of nuclear power is controversial due to fears that an aborted launch will spread radiation in the Biosphere. Thus, it is likely to be used as a drive leaving from LEO rather than launching from. Earth. In space, high temperatures of 2000 K are needed to have an acceptable thrust to propellant ratio (3000 K would be close to optimal). However, in space, excess heat cannot be readily dissipated, and so far no one knows how to radiate more than 1000 K. The lack of particles to transfer the energy to limits the ability to radiate heat. A breakthrough in our conception of how to radiate heat is needed to use this drive effectively. Alternatively, some means of gathering, attracting or finding existing concentrations of particles in space has to be found to make existing radiators more effective.

Magbeam — Proponents, such as Professor Winglee of the University of Washington, claim that Magnetized-beam plasma propulsion technology promises a round trip to Mars of 90 Earth Days. "Magbeam" works by separating the power source from the spacecraft. The power source is kept in stationary orbit and it "fires" a focused plasma beam to accelerate a vessel in a particular direction. The beam shuts down when the desired velocity is reached. This technique requires another stationary source at the destination point to decelerate the ship in the same fashion. The advantages to magbeam technology are quite significant. First, one power source can be used to power several vehicles. Second, the power station can be powered using solar panels and the vessels' fuel requirement is drastically reduced. The drawback is that the second stationary source must first be placed at every destination by another means. With current rocket technology, it is possible to reach Mars (with such a set up) within 2.5 years. Alternatively one could utilize magbeam to go one way quickly (say to Mars orbit) and then use traditional fuel to enter and leave the Mars atmosphere and return home. A January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW breakthrough in the engineering of a full-scale "magbeam satellite" that is easily placed into orbit at popular destinations would be needed to use this propulsion system effectively for round trips.

Solar Sail — The Planetary Society has invested in an experimental mission that is being launched by a Ukrainian rocket this year. Solar sails work by capturing light pressure within large metal film sails, and using the force to push a "ship" through space. The advantage to this is the theoretical speed that could be achieved, which is some large fraction of the speed of light. The limiting factor is material. It must be light and strong enough to create a sail many times the size of the space craft that could withstand the solar forces. Also, due to strong solar dependency, it's limited to travel in the inner solar system. Research on the idea began in the 1950's and now NASA has a science team looking into carbon fiber as the most promising material at present. A breakthrough in solar sail material has potential to radically reduce onboard fuel requirements and dramatically change space travel time and distance limitations.

Electromagnetic Shielding - Electromagnetic fields can be used to repel radiation and shield against smaller objects in space. A limitation of the technology is that it may not be able to assist in atmospheric reentry as a result of a planet's magnetic field. Robert Youngquist, a physicist who leads the KSC-Applied Physics Lab at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, is leading a team that is betting on electromagnetic fields as the solution to many of NASA's manned and unmanned problems with radiation in space. "Youngquist's team envisions a spacecraft equipped with what's called a multipole electrostatic radiation shield, a radiation guard made up of three, electrically charged spheres set in a line along the axis of the ship. The center sphere, set close or even attached to the crew module, would be positively charged, while two outrigger spheres on either side would carry a negative charge. Together, the combination should be enough to repel both high-energy protons and electrons that would otherwise penetrate a spacecraft (Malik 1)." As for stopping incoming objects, the electromagnetic fields of the strength currently used in containing the materials in a fusion reactor would stop a cannon ball or a bullet, but that is about it for now. The breakthrough in EM fields would require a larger supply of energy to the electromagnets. This would probably allow for a sufficiently large and strong bubble of protection to be created.

Cold Plasma - Cold plasma is based on a phenomenon that scientists witnessed in space around 30 years ago, but had no way of creating on earth. Now, with more recent developments in technology, creation of this substance is possible. The main benefits to cold plasma are that cold plasma stop electromagnetic pulses and so can be used to absorb radar, microwave and laser energy. The radar absorption effectively makes a spacecraft invisible to a whole class of sensors and the military implications are obvious, but other space applications are less obvious. This is the stuff of science fiction though, cloaking devices and warding off hostile attacks from laser or beam weapons. The breakthrough that would allow cold plasma to realize its promise would be an energy

vi January 12 th, 2005 JHH RTW source light enough to carry and as powerful as a nuclear reactor. There may be natural threats in space to which it is applicable as well.

Aerogel - Aerogel is an ultra light solid also known as "solid smoke." It is the lightest known solid, (90-99% air) with abnormal levels of heat absorption. Aerogel has the ability to protect crayons from melting when aerogel is placed between the crayons and a butane torch. Aerogel has the same heat insulation in a 1" pane as a 32" thick pane of normal, air insulated, and windows. The downside to aerogel is that creating aerogel can be difficult, and expensive, as it is best done in microgravity, but it has been used successfully to insulate the Mars Rover and Space Lab 2. As of January 13, 2004, NASA announced that Aerogel is the new insulation of choice. An attempt is likely to be made to use it to replace the ceramic heat shield tiles on the Shuttle that are so vulnerable to chipping and costly to replace. Aerogel can be used as a heat shield simply by ejecting it out along the surface of the vessel as the spacecraft prepares for reentry. The gel is expendable, it would be burned away, but will prevent heat damage to the aluminum hull as it burns away. The Aerogel breakthrough that is needed involves its ease and cost of production" on the fly", since in space shielding applications it tends to get used up and requires replacement.

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