University Free State 1111111IIIII II'" IIIII 11III 11III 11III 11II1 II1I1 II1III11I1 I1II1 1III1 II1I1 II1II11I 34300002279622 Universiteit Vrystaat ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF LAND USE: THE CASE OF EAST HARARGHE ADMINISTRATIVE ZONE IN ETHIOPIA BY Rassen Ibrahim Worseme Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the Philosophia Doctor (Ph.D.) degree Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics University of The Free State . •. 'J . Promoter: Prof. M.F. Viljoen Co-promoter: Prof. J.A. Groenewald Bloemfontein, Republic of South Africa February 2004 ,__ w__ , ,--,~~ , lfn.lvOTOH:eH V{;l'n tU~ ~ OTcnJe-Vry~toot BltnMPONTEJN 6 - JUL 2004 Declaration I declare that the thesis hereby submitted by me for the Philosophia Doctor (Ph.D.) degree at the University of The Free State is my own independent work and has not previously been submitted by me at another university/faculty. I furthermore cede copyright of the thesis in favour of the University of The Free State. Hassen Ibrahim Worseme CONTENTS PAGE LIST OF TABLES ~ ix LIST OF FIGURES xiv ABBREVIATIONS xv DEFINITION OF TERMS xvi ABSTRACT xvii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xix CHAPTER 1. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Problem statement 3 1.3 Objectives of the study 4 1.4 Research, hypothesis 5 1.5 Importance of the research 5 1.6 Scope of the study 6 1.7 Arrangement ofthesis 7 CHAPTER 2. RESEARCH APPROACH ~ · 10 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Identifying research problem 11 2.3 Selecting a research area and stratification 12 2.4 Conducting literature study : 14 2.5 Determining the model to apply 15 2.6 Data collection 16 2.6.1 Developing questionnaire 16 2.6.2 Sample drawing 17 2.6.3 Conducting fieldwork 18 2.7 Data analysis 18 CHAPTER 3. RESEARCH AREA 22 3.1 Introduction 22 iii 3.2 Location and administrative sub-divisions of EHAZ 23 3.3 Physical characteristics 26 3.3.1 Climatic regions 26 3.3.2 Rainfall pattern 28 3.3.3 Altitude, temperature and evapotranspiration 29 3.4 Demographic characteristics 30 3.4.1 Population size and distribution 30 3.4.2 Population density 33 3.4.3 Population composition and structure 36 3.5 Natural resource structure 38 3.5.1 Relief and landforms 38 3.5.2 Mineral resources 39 3.5.3 Soils 40 3.5.4 Water resources 43 3.5.5 Wildlife and its conservation 45 3.6 Economic conditions and enterprise composition offarms 46 3.6.1 Land use and land cover 46 3.6.2 General production regions 48 3.6.3 Crop production 50 3.6.4 Livestock numbers, distribution and its role 55 3.7 Summary and conclusion 57 CHAPTER 4. LITERATURE REVIEW 61 4.1 Introduction 61 4.1.1 Land resource utilization from a global point of view 62 4.1.2 Land use in developing countries 63 4.1.3 Overview of the land resource in Ethiopia 65 4.2 Economic theories of land use 74 4.2.1 Resource economics and natural resources 74 4.2.2 Some agricultural resource economics issues 78 4.2.3 Land economics 79 iv 4.2.4 Land and property rights 81 4.2.5 Land as an economic resource 85 4.2.6 Sustainable development 87 4.3 Methods ofland use analysis and planning 91 4.3.1 A skeleton model of the agricultural sector 91 4.3.3 Land evaluation and farming systems analysis for land use planning 95 4.4 The Linear programming approach to land use analysis 97 4.4.1 An overview of linear programming 97 4.4.2 Linear programming and economic analysis in agriculture 99 4.4.3 Levels of land use analysis and aggregation problems 103 4.4.4 Linear programming as a tool for land use analysis 105 4.4.4.1 Agricultural sector models 105 4.4.4.2 Sustainability parameters in linear programming models 107 4.4.5 Structure oflinear programming models in land use analysis ; 109 4.5 Summary and Conclusion 111 CHAPTER 5. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 114 5.1 Conceptual framework 114 5.1.1 Levels of land use analysis 114 5.1.2 Linking the farm and sub-regional levels 117 5.1.3 Linear programming as a tool for land use analysis 118 5.1.4 Sustainability parameters in linear programming models 120 5.1.5 Overview of the LP model used in the study 121 5.2 A land use model for EHAZ 127 5.2.1 The setting : 127 5.2.2 Land use systems 128 5.2.3 General formulation of the land use model of the zone (EASTHAR) 129 CHAPTER 6. FARM CLASSIFICATION AND DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY DATA 138 6.1 Introduction 138 v 6.2 Determination of farming systems in the zone 138 6.2.1 Systems of grouping farms 138 6.2.2 Method used to group farms in the zone 140 6.2.3 The different farm types of the zone 141 6.3 Description of survey data 144 6.3.1 Land holdings among farmers 144 6.3.1.1 Land holding of farmers by soil type 145 6.3.1.2 Land availability per farm type 146 6.3.2 Land allocation to main crops 150 6.3.2.1 Farm and district level land allocation to main crops 150 6.3.2.2 Zonal land allocation to main crops 164 6.3.2.3 Land utilization by far~ types 170 6.3.3 Household family structure and labour utilization 172 6.3.3.1 Household family size per district : 172 6.3.3.2 Household labour availability per farm type 175 6.3.3.3 Household labour utilization by farm types 177 6.3.3.4 Hired labour utilization by farm types 179 6.3.3.5 Off-farm work by family members per farm type 182 6.3.4 Variable inputs utilization 184 6.3.4.1 Agricultural input use per crop and farm type 184 6.3.4.2 Proportion of input applying farmers in the zone 186 6.3.5 Crop production, farm income and off-farm earnings 188 6.3.5.1 Crop production per farm type 188 6.3.5.2 Farm income and off-farm earnings 190 6.3.6 Livestock ownership 191 6.4 Farm problems in the study area 194 6.5 Summary and conclusion 196 CHAPTER 7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF THE LAND USE MODEL OF THE STUDY AREA 201 7.1. Introduction 201 VI 7.2. Overview of basic model ingredients 201 7.2.1 Total land available for crop production 202 7.2.2 Total household labour availability 203 7.2.3 Total oxen availability 204 7.2.4 Consumption requirements of rural and urban population 205 7.2.5 Land constraint for green pepper and potatoes 207 7.2.6 Valuation of farm labour input.. 208 7.3 Model specification using GAMS 210 7.4 Scenarios in land use analysis 216 7.5 Basic result of the land use model - EASTHAR 220 7.6 Results of base scenario 221 7.6.1 Farm production economics, income structure and employment.. 221 7.6.2 Land use 228 7.6.3 Variable inputs and draft power utilization 233 7.6.4 Land and labour productivities 237 7.7 Results of opportunity cost scenario 238 7.7.1 Farm production economics and income structure 239 7.7.2 Sensitivity for assumed reservation wage 241 7.8 Results of drought case scenario 242 7.8.1 Farm production economics and income structure 244 7.8.2 Labour, land, variable input and draft power utilization 247 7.9 Results of the variants of the drought scenario 257 7.9.1 Effect of drought on the current cropping pattern 257 7.9.2 Effect of drought on the base scenario optimum cropping pattern 260 7.10 Comparison of the different scenarios 265 7.11 Summary and conclusion 265 CHAPTER 8. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................... "'. 270 8.1 Introduction 270 8.2 Summary 270 VII 8.2.1 The research problem 270 8.2.1.1 Problem statement 270 8.2.1.2 Objectives of the study 271 8.2.1.3 Research hypothesis 272 8.2.1.4 Importance of the research 272 8.2.2 The research approach 273 8.2.2.1 Identifying research problem 273 8.2.2.2 Selecting study area 273 8.2.2.3 Conducting literature study 274 8.2.2.4 Determining the model to apply 275 8.2.2.5 Developing questionnaire 275 8.2.2.6 Sampling 276 8.22.7 Conducting fieldwork 276 8.2.2.8 Analyzing the data 277 ·8.2.3 The study area 277 8.2.4. Findings and results , 278 8.2.4.1 The literature study 278 8.2.4.2 The research methodology 280 8.2.4.3 Description of surveyed data and farm classification 281 8.2.4.4 EASTHAR model results 283 8.3 Conclusions 285 8.4. Recommendations 287 8.4.1 Policy recommendations 287 8.4.2 Future research recommendations 288 REFERENCES 291 APPENDICES 302 APPEDDIX A: SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 302 APPENDIX B: FRAMEWORK FOR SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION 316 APPENDIX C: SAMPLE MATRIX OF EASTHAR MODEL 321 VIII LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Area, capital, and number of peasant associations of the districts in EHAZ. 24 Table 3.2. Agro-climatic classification of East Hararghe Administrative Zone 27 Table 3.3. Total population of East Hararghe Administrative Zone by district 31 Table 3.4 Population density of East Hararghe Administrative Zone by density category 34 Table 3.5 Sex ratio, household size and dependency ratio of East Hararghe Administrative Zone by district as of 1999 37 Table 3.6 Metallic and non-metallic mineral deposits in East Hararghe 39 Table 3.7 Land cultivated and production of major crops in EHAZ 51 Table 3.8 Livestock size in East Hararghe Administrative Zone, 1999/2000 56 Table 4.1.