Policy Notes April 2021
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY APRIL 2021 POLICY NOTES NO. 103 Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict Michael Eisenstadt resident Joe Biden has stated that if Iran returns to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the United States will too, as a starting point for P 1 follow-on talks about Iran’s missile program and regional activities. The path to a stronger, longer, and broader JCPOA, however, may be tortuous and prolonged; success is not foreordained. Indeed, since the Biden administration took office, Tehran has already resumed proxy attacks on U.S. intrests in Image: The Japanese-owned Iraq, and has accelerated work on its nuclear program while limiting access tanker Kokuka Courageous, by international inspectors, in order to (1) build leverage, (2) roll back U.S. showing damage from an sanctions, and (3) obtain other concessions. Washington needs to be able to Iranian limpet mine attack in the Gulf of Oman, June 2019. deter or counter such moves and deny Tehran advantage in ways that do not Screenshot: U.S. Central hinder renewed diplomacy. Moreover, even if talks succeed, U.S.-Iran ties will Command. MICHAEL EISENSTADT DETERRING IRAN IN THE GRAY ZONE likely remain tense for years to come. Deterrence engendered by more effectively deterring and will therefore remain a core component of U.S. policy countering Tehran’s regional activities may enhance toward Iran as a way to manage tensions, avoid Washington’s ability to deter a potential future escalation, and deny Tehran leverage, thus creating nuclear breakout by Iran.
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