Mark Belling’s Breeders’ Cup Picks - 2018

OVERVIEW

This year’s Breeders’ Cup races are at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The weather is expected to be cool with a small chance for rain. However, the area got hit with a lot of rain in mid-week and the turf course is likely to be less than firm. This may aid the European invaders in the races on the turf. Because the fields are very large and even the tenth best horse in a race is among the world’s best, big upsets are frequent in Breeders’ Cup races and payouts can be very big. I personally prefer bets like the pick three and pick four because the payouts explode when one or two longshots win in a sequence. The challenge is finding those longshots. About my picks below: I am listing, in each race, the horses I think have a chance to win, in order of preference. My top pick is not necessarily the best bet as a high-odds horse I have third or fourth could be better value than a short- priced favorite. Also, these picks are being made and posted in mid-week. Some horses may scratch. The way the main track is playing can’t be predicted at this point. I will be flexible and be willing to change plans on the two race days. For practical reasons, however, the picks on this site will not be able to be updated.

I’ll list the BC races in the order they are run.

THE RACES

FRIDAY

Race 5 - TURF SPRINT #2 Soldier’s Call 9-2 #1 Strike Silver 4-1 #8 Sergei Prokofiev 6-1

Race 6 – JUVENILE FILLIES TURF #6 Newspaperofrecord 2-1 #4 Just Wonderful 6-1 #3 Lily’s Candle 8-1 #1 Concrete Rose 6-1 #12 Summering 15-1

Race 7 – JUVENILE FILLIES #7 Jaywalk 7-2 #8 Sippican Harbor 12-1 #4 Restless Rider 9-2 #1 Reflect 15-1 #10 Bellafina 2-1

NOTE: I have this race very close and my top picks are virtually inseparable.

Race 8 – JUVENILE TURF #5 Line of Duty 10-1 #14 Anthony Van Dyck 4-1 #9 The Black Album 30-1 #1 Arthur Kitt 20-1 #6 Henley’s Joy 8-1

NOTE: This race is wide open, and every entrant has a shot.

Race 9 - JUVENILE #9 Game Winner 8-5 #6 Complexity 5-2 #11 Code of Honor 5-1 #12 Gunmetal Gray 10-1 #4 Tight Ten 30-1

SATURDAY

Race 3 – FILLY AND MARE SPRINT #13 Marley’s Freedom 8-5 #11 Finley’sluckycharm 10-1 #1 Selcourt 4-1 #5 Golden Mischief 10-1 #8 Mia Mischief 15-1

NOTE: This is a very weak opinion and I have no real feel for this race.

Race 4 – TURF SPRINT #11 World of Trouble 6-1 #9 Stormy Liberal 4-1 #5 Disco Partner 7-2 #6 Rainbow Heir 12-1 #14 Conquest Tsunami 6-1

NOTE: World of Trouble is a very strong play for me. This horse was placed on the turf for the first time two races ago and has shown stunning improvement both times.

Race 5 – DIRT MILE #10 Catalina Cruiser 8-5 #7 Firenze Fire 5-1 #1 City of Light 5-2 #6 Seeking the Soul 5-1

Race 6 – FILLY AND MARE TURF #3 Wild Illusion 7-2 #6 Sistercharlie 3-1 #1 Fourstar Crook 5-1 #9 A Raving Beauty 10-1 #10 Magic Wand 5-1

Race 7 – SPRINT #5 Imperial Hint 9-5 #9 Roy H 5-2 #8 Limousine Liberal 6-1 #2 Promises Fulfilled 6-1 #1 Whitmore 6-1

NOTE: Very tough call here and only a mild opinion from me.

Race – MILE #7 Expert Eye 8-1 #1 One Master 12-1 #11 20-1 #14 Mustashry 15-1 #5 Oscar Performance 6-1 #4 Polydream 5-1

Race 9 – DISTAFF #7 Midnight Bisou 6-1 #9 Wow Cat 8-1 #5 Wonder Gadot 15-1 #2 Abel Tasman 7-2 #1 Champagne Problems 12-1 #11 Monomoy Girl 2-1

Race 10 – TURF #2 1-1 #12 Waldgeist 9-2 #5 Magical 10-1 #1 Talismanic 12-1 #3 Channel Maker 12-1

NOTE: Enable, the heavy favorite, is one of the two best horses in the world. She’s a four-year-old filly that four weeks ago won the world’s most prestigious race, the Arc d’Triomphe in Paris, for the second consecutive year. I have her on top because she is obviously the best horse, but it should be noted that no winner of the Arc has ever won the Breeders’ Cup Turf as the race is often an after-thought to the grueling Arc. Enable must be used in wagering and is the likeliest winner but is not the best gamble.

Race 11 – CLASSIC #6 McKinzie 6-1 #12 Axelrod 30-1 #14 Accelerate 5-2 #3 8-1 #7 West Coast 5-1 #10 Yoshida 10-1 #2 Roaring Lion 20-1 #11 Mind Your Biscuits 6-1 #1 Thundering Snow 12-1 #13 Discreet Lover 20-1

NOTE: This is a legitimately great running of the Classic and I give a shot to all listed above, including mega- longshot Axelrod. I have McKinzie on top. He was going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite this year before getting hurt and may have been even better than (also trained by Bob Baffert) who only went on to win the Triple Crown. The layoff actually helped this horse who comes in fresh and strong.

BEST BETS

Saturday: World of Trouble in the Turf Sprint and McKinzie in the Classic.