+ Case study 1
Shattering
the Myths
About U.S.
Trade Policy The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in the US + The blames from U.S.
Loss Damage of of jobs welfare + The 3 Myths about U.S. Trade Policy
Job losses, especially in manufacturing, due to the 1 American’s trade policy.
Export from developing countries had reduced their 2 living standards.
Higher oil prices that import from developed and 3 developing countries is hurting Americans + Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards say…
Forget the doomsayers, and stop blaming trade. An active trade policy can lead to a stronger U.S. economy. + Job losses, especially in manufacturing, due to the 1 American’s trade policy.
Employment has fallen steadily for over half a century.
The trend is similar with Germany and the Netherlands.
Increasing productivity growth in American manufacturing. And or so in agriculture.
A shift in demand away from goods toward services.
The recessions started at home in U.S. -From
Balanced trade won’t offset job losses permanently. + Balanced trade won’t offset job losses permanently.
-From
Very different products and processes between the U.S. and developing Countries in the early stages of countries. development are most likely to experience rapid productivity The most products differ in terms of price growth in the industries in which and quality, factors of production are they have a comparative advantage. used for specific tasks. -John Hicks' theory
The developing countries exported that are no longer produced certain products in U.S.
From 1993 to 2010,the manufacturing terms of trade improved primarily The variety of imports available to because the relative prices of U.S.- Americans would have been greater. manufacturing imports from developing The terms of trade would have been countries declined. better for the United States. -By Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards + Higher oil prices that import from developed and 3 developing countries is hurting Americans
The united states imports about 58% of its oil, the price of oil heavily influences Increase global supply or reduced the nation’s trade benefits demand of just 1% a year would reduce oil prices in 2030 by 75%. The impact of the net-supply shortfall created by the U.S.. -By U.S. Energy Information Administration scenarios
Relatively small changes in the production and conservation of liquid fuels may make it possible to accommodate demand from emerging economies without a major increase in oil prices. -By Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
the shortfall between growth of demand in emerging markets and slow growth of supply in developed countries + A free and fair global trading system can result in economic win-win.
---By U.S. President John F. Kennedy + How is the trade developing?
U.K. China + How is the trade developing?.
U.K. China
Tax/Tariff Trade Barriers Import Quotas + The benefits of the free trade
U.K. China
Tax/Tariff Trade Barriers Import Quotas Efficiently, Easily, and Effectively + The free trade organizations + Free Trade in the United States
A member of the WTO. And or so in part of several other trade agreements including NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, and bilateral investment treaties, which are individual agreements with about 40 additional nations.
The goal is to establish worldwide free trade agreements (referred to by detractors as "globalization").
The belief is that the further expansion of trade would be "an important contribution to addressing the global economic crisis."
+ Currently economy in US
Slower growth since the early 1970s
– Public debt rose quickly from $909 billion in – Sustained merchandise trade deficits since 1976 1980 to $14.3 trillion in 2010, by 15 times
– Jobless rate is high: February 2013, the – Living standards fall: personal income were unemployment rate was up to 7.7% down sharply from their 2007 peaks +
American learn to spend less More of the demand for their output has to come through trade. + President Barack Obama 's doubling exports
Revitalized U.S. trade aiming to double exports by 2014
• Expand trade opportunities through regional economic integration with partners in Africa and Asia in 2013
• Launch trade policy negotiation with EU to boost U.S economy
Accelerated efforts on TPP negotiations
• To build a ”Trans-Pacific” free trade zone without China’s attendance, which will restrict Chinese development.
• Plan to complete the talk at the end of this year In five years, exports can be boosted by a weaker dollar or by greater investments that make goods and services cheaper, more attractive ,or The trade barriers are much higher overseas than more prominent in U.S.. + What need American to do
More active in trading order • 1.Sustain trade order from current FTAs • 2.Seeks out untapped foreign markets--Opening up trade with Russia LY Maintain good relationship with trade partner • Relationship with China- find a win-win way to boost economic interest bilaterally • Allow China’s remedies in antidumping and safeguard cases • End the compliance review of trade Leadership on pushing international meaningful agreement • Help to end Doha round talk • Reconstruct WTO + The thinking of this case…
Free Trade Increases U.S. Sales and Profits
Free Trade Creates U.S. Middle-Class Jobs
U.S. Free Trade Helps Poorer Countries + Don’t erect more higher barriers
+ Encourage domestic innovation More active in trading order + Maintain good relationship with trade partner
+ Leadership on pushing international meaningful agreement +
Thanks