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Global Heritage Tourism Revenues in Developing

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Global Heritage Tourism Revenues in Developing Economic Impact- Global Heritage Tourism Revenues in Developing and Emerging Countries and Regions October 2010 - GHF Es'mates and Published Data Total Site Visitors Total Revenues (in Top 50 Global Heritage Sites Country Domesc Visitors Interna@onal Visitors (2009 est.) $1,000s) The Great Wall China 16,000,000 8,200,000 24,200,000 $2,888,000,000 Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor China 10,000,000 8,000,000 18,000,000 $1,920,000,000 Memphis and its Necropolis Egypt 400,000 4,600,000 3,000,000 $936,000,000 Imperial Palaces of the Ming and Qing Dynases China 5,200,000 1,800,000 7,000,000 $904,000,000 Historic Cairo Egypt 1,400,000 2,600,000 4,000,000 $576,000,000 Ephesus Turkey 800,000 2,700,000 3,500,000 $572,000,000 Dahshour Egypt 400,000 2,600,000 2,000,000 $536,000,000 Amritsar India 4,000,000 1,500,000 5,500,000 $460,000,000 Angkor Cambodia 400,000 2,100,000 2,500,000 $436,000,000 Pre-Hispanic City of Teohuacan Mexico 2,200,000 2,000,000 4,200,000 $432,000,000 Machu Picchu Peru 600,000 800,000 1,400,000 $384,000,000 Monte Alban Mexico 1,300,000 1,500,000 2,800,000 $352,000,000 Historic Oaxaca Mexico 1,300,000 1,500,000 2,800,000 $352,000,000 Mitla Mexico 1,300,000 1,500,000 2,800,000 $352,000,000 Abu Simbel Egypt 500,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 $320,000,000 Ancient Thebes Egypt 500,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 $320,000,000 Taj Mahal India 1,200,000 1,200,000 2,400,000 $288,000,000 Petra Jordan 320,000 1,280,000 1,600,000 $268,800,000 Old Havana and its Forficaons Cuba 573,986 1,200,000 1,773,986 $262,959,440 Abu Mena Egypt 300,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 $252,000,000 Pre-Hispanic City of Chichen-Itza Mexico 1,200,000 1,400,000 2,600,000 $248,000,000 Querétaro Mexico 1,200,000 800,000 2,000,000 $224,000,000 Medina of Fez Morocco 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 $220,000,000 Mount Wutai China 2,800,000 502,000 3,302,000 $212,400,000 Red Fort Complex India 1,200,000 800,000 2,000,000 $208,000,000 Medina of Marrakesh Morocco 200,000 900,000 1,100,000 $188,000,000 City of Cuzco Peru 200,000 800,000 1,000,000 $168,000,000 Nemrut Dag Turkey 200,000 800,000 1,000,000 $168,000,000 Ancient City of Damascus Syria 200,000 800,000 1,000,000 $168,000,000 Pharaonic Temples in Upper Egypt Egypt 200,000 800,000 1,000,000 $168,000,000 Divriği Turkey 1,500,000 500,000 2,000,000 $160,000,000 Ciudad de Zaruma Ecuador 500,000 700,000 1,200,000 $160,000,000 Old Town of Lijiang China 2,750,000 250,000 3,000,000 $160,000,000 Kasbah of Algiers Algeria 500,000 630,000 1,130,000 $146,000,000 City of Safranbolu Turkey 1,600,000 400,000 2,000,000 $144,000,000 Ban Chiang Thailand 500,000 600,000 1,100,000 $140,000,000 Amber Fort and Town India 500,000 595,000 1,095,000 $139,000,000 Agra Fort India 500,000 590,722 1,090,722 $138,144,400 Hasankeyf Turkey 400,000 600,000 1,000,000 $136,000,000 An@phellos Turkey 400,000 600,000 1,000,000 $136,000,000 Medina of Tétouan Morocco 400,000 600,000 1,000,000 $136,000,000 Zhouzhuang Ancient Walled City China 1,700,000 300,000 2,000,000 $128,000,000 Dubrovnik Croaa 100,000 620,000 720,000 $128,000,000 My Son Sanctuary Vietnam 166,500 600,000 766,500 $126,660,000 Lahore Fort and Shalamar Gardens Pakistan 1,990,000 210,000 2,200,000 $121,600,000 Borobudur Indonesia 2,468,864 111,136 2,580,000 $120,981,760 Champaner India 2,000,000 200,000 2,200,000 $120,000,000 Kiev Historic Centre Ukraine 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 $120,000,000 Historic Sukhothai Thailand 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 $120,000,000 Fujian Tulous China 2,000,000 164,200 2,164,200 $112,840,000 Total - Top 50 Global Heritage Sites 77,569,350 67,153,058 141,722,408 $17,477,385,600 Other Global Heritage Sites (approx. 450) 44,670,964 28,612,010 73,403,107 $7,268,988,899 Total All Global Heritage Sites (500) 122,240,314 95,765,068 215,125,515 $24,746,374,499 Global Heritage Sites Total Revenues Potential for Developing Countries Oct-10 in US $billions Assumed Growth Rate 6% 8% 10% 12% 2009 $24.80 $24.80 $24.80 $24.80 2010 26.29 26.78 27.28 27.78 2011 27.87 28.93 30.01 31.11 2012 29.54 31.24 33.01 34.84 2013 31.31 33.74 36.31 39.02 2014 33.19 36.44 39.94 43.71 2015 35.18 39.35 43.93 48.95 2016 37.29 42.50 48.33 54.82 2017 39.53 45.90 53.16 61.40 2018 41.90 49.58 58.48 68.77 2019 44.41 53.54 64.32 77.03 2020 47.08 57.82 70.76 86.27 2021 49.90 62.45 77.83 96.62 2022 52.90 67.45 85.62 108.21 2023 56.07 72.84 94.18 121.20 2024 59.43 78.67 103.60 135.74 2025 $63.00 $84.96 $113.96 $152.03 Source: Based on Stanford University Economics Graduate Analysis by Shwetha Shankar et al, 2010. See www.globalheritagefund.org/vanishing to see the enDre site tourism database (500 global heritage sites) with citaons. Note: As we can see from three popular sites with mature growth rates- Machu Picchu, Petra and Angkor (see Growth of Tourism Arrivals 2000–2009), visitaon can double or triple over ten years (8-12 percent growth rate). Global heritage sites that are just coming onto the internaonal and domesDc tourism scene are oRen growing much faster (20-30 percent a year). For example, Chavin de Huantar in Peru, grew from 12,000 to over 100,000 visitors in the same period. Growth of Tourism Arrivals (2000–2009) 2000 2009 % Growth Machu Picchu, Peru 420,000 960,000 128% Petra, Jordan 260,000 892,000 243% Angkor, Cambodi 840,000 2,420,000 188% Source: Ministries of Tourism, GHF EsDmates Potenal $100 Billion Opportunity for Global Heritage for Developing and Emerging Countries DISCUSSION NOTES Source: Tourist figure citaons noted in the 500 Site database were researched by Ms. Shweta Shankar, an Economics MS Grad from Stanford University. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ESTIMATES of INDIVIDUAL SITE REVENUES MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER THAN ACTUAL, BUT SPREAD OVER 500 SITES THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TOO MUCH. Four points: 1. We are going to con.nue to collect visitaon and revenue data for each site to improve accuracy and for our monitoring on GHN and will revise next year for 2010. 2. With current growth rates, many emerging countries and regions around these sites will no longer be developing countries by 2025, ie. will communi.es living around the Great Wall in China s.ll be $3-5 per day PCI in 2025? 3. The $100B by 2025 number is a rough 'back of the napkin' analysis based on key assump.ons for both domes.c and internaonal tourism revenues $$ per visitor per site: 4. Average spend per visitor is $40 per person domes.c and $200 per person internaonal assuming an average stay of 1.4 days. In most sites, local visitaon is underes.mated as only the paid .cket holders are counted- ie. Guatemalans all go free on Sundays at Tikal and there are no .ckets sold or poorer locals will go to a non-monitored part of the Great Wall. So $40 per domes.c visitor could be high if really local, or low for Beijing and Shanghai richer visitors. Same for Taj Mahal India and many other sites. Most cross-checking on revenues show our figures can underes.mate or overes.mate the revenues. For example, Machu Picchu in Peru had a es.maon of $384 million - Machu Picchu (600,000 x $40 domes.c) + (1,800,000 x $200 intl) = $384,000,000 esmate in 2009 $384,000,000 IS THE AMOUNT PERU SAYS THE COUNTRY LOST IN 2 MONTHS OF CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODS IN 2010. SEE BELOW: Machu Picchu Reopens By Meg Weaver, April 1, 2010 NatGeo An es.mated 850,000 tourists visited Machu Picchu in 2008. This year's two-month closing, depending where you get your numbers, likely cost the government between $160 million and $416 million. hdp://www.larepublica.pe/economia/10/02/2010/peru-lanza-campana-quotcusco-ponequot- con-rebajas-en-paquetes-turis.cos Despite the loss in revenue both for the government and the 175,000 local people who make their livings directly from Machu Picchu tourism, the forced closing of the site prompted a reconsideraon of how to preserve the site. In fact, in 2008, UNESCO threatened to demote Machu Picchu to being labeled an endangered site due to disagreements over crowd control at the site and UNESCO's management plan for it, which stated that no more than 917 people should visit the site any given day and no more than 385 should be there at any .me.
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