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OMFIF Bulletin OMFIFOMFIF BULLETIN Official Monetary and GlobalFinancial Insight Institutions on OfficialForum Monetary and Financial Institutions July-August 2010 ECB post would constrain Germany Smaller state candidate would suit everyone David Marsh, Co-chairman urope has slowly been acclimatising gaining the No.1 monetary position. whether the ECB has been diverted Eitself to the view that a German Making Weber ECB president would from its anti-inflationary duties into the – Axel Weber, the Bundesbank heavily constrain Germany’s own room realm of political bail-outs. president – will become the next head for monetary and political manoeuvre. of the European Central Bank when Weber publicly declared on 10 incumbent Jean-Claude Trichet, former As Lagarde correctly says, no-one wants May that he disagreed with the ECB Governor of the Banque de France, to make Trichet a lame duck president decision earlier that day to start buying retires in autumn 2011. at a fraught time for Europe’s monetary government bonds from Greece and decision-making. That’s why it would other weaker euro members – an However, much political wrangling lies be an act of statesmanship for German important adjunct to a €750bn bail- ahead. [See The OMFIF Essay by John Chancellor Angela Merkel and French out package by European governments Nugée, p. 5 – 11]. Christine Lagarde, President Nicolas Sarkozy to announce and the International Monetary the French finance minister, said on now that the decision on the new chief Fund. Weber said the move created 9 July she did not rule out Weber as will be made in summer 2011 – and ‘considerable risks’ for euro stability Trichet’s successor but pointed out there that he or she will not come from the could be ‘two or three’ candidates. euro area’s largest countries. Weber has been criticised by some European politicians for allegedly It is time, though, for the Berlin The issue has gained in importance trying to further his candidature, and government to accept that its best because the ECB and the Bundesbank (more discreetly) by some members of interests do not necessarily lie in have become embroiled in controversy (continued on page 4 ...) Contents Attrition ahead ECB propels moves towards reform Stewart Fleming 3 Renminbi-euro questions Jonathan Fenby, Board of Editors Facing up to EMU’s weakness John Nugée 5 he People’s Bank of China’s announcement of the switch Clarifying sovereign fund principles Malan Rietveld 12 Tto a ‘flexible’ currency regime and the use of a basket of currencies to replace the peg to the dollar resolves far less than Global analysis: Mooted reshaping at premier fund 13 many thought. Contagion between banks and state Patrick Honohan 14 While the currency spat is largely conducted between Beijing and Washington, the fall-out from the PBoC declaration on 19 J.M. Keynes Letter from Heaven William Keegan 16 June may be felt most keenly in Europe. The Chinese central bank’s statement said pointedly that flexibility means the All eyes on inconclusive Dutch Roel Janssen 18 renminbi could go down as well as up. If the euro continues to slide against the dollar, the chances of Beijing not revaluing Obituary: Peter Walker Meghnad Desai 19 but devaluing its currency could become significant. OMFIF Advisory Board 20 As Europe faces a toxic combination of economic austerity and a banking crisis, the Chinese are worried about the potential This document must not be copied OMFIF and is only to be made available for a further euro decline. If that happens, it would not be in Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum to OMFIF members, prospective their nature to refrain from remedial action. members and partner organisations (continued on page 4 ...) The Global Retail Banking Summit Going for Growth at the Core of International Banking nd rd Contact Mladina Connolly 2 - 3 December 2010, London on +44 (0) 20 3008 4649www.omfif.org 1 or click to find out more OMFIF Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Letter from the chairman Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Economic clouds gather One Lyric Square London W6 0NB A vista of setback and reform United Kingdom t: +44 (0)20 3008 8415 David Marsh, Co-chairman f: +44 (0)20 3008 8426 David Marsh he world economic picture has become cloudier during the summer in the northern Co-chairman Themisphere. Worries have risen about a slowdown in breakneck Chinese expansion e: [email protected] while the threat of a double-dip recession – though still fairly small – has not disappeared t: +44 (0)20 3008 5207 in the US and Europe. The European Central Bank has recovered some of its poise after Michael Lafferty the setbacks over Europe’s sovereign debt woes earlier this year. Co-chairman e: [email protected] One bright spot is that activity has picked up in Germany, just at the time when t: +44 (0)20 3008 8415 Europe’s largest economy has been incurring the irritation of President Barack Obama Evelyn Hunter-Jordan by unveiling a plan for cutting government spending. Germany and Britain, inside and Managing Director outside the euro, are moving in step in the quest for lower budget deficits. e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)20 3008 5283 We reflect these global issues in our coverage for a special July-August edition. Stewart Wiebke Räber Fleming looks at the European Central Bank’s incursion into the field of economic reform Jamie Bulgin traditionally pursued by the politicians. This is a departure from the norm that is earning Vasi Papadopoulos the Frankfurt-based institution opprobrium and praise in equal measure. OMFIF Secretariat e: [email protected] e: [email protected] Jonathan Fenby casts an acerbic glance at what really changes following the trumpeted e: [email protected] renminbi move. Not much, he says – predicting that pressures for more thoroughgoing t: +44 (0)20 3008 5207 changes to lower China’s trade surplus with America will increase. Malan Rietveld, our new chief economist, in the first of his monthly commentaries, takes a look at prospective Neil Courtis Development Director changes at China Investment Corp. e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)79 4747 5044 John Nugée sweeps magisterially across the political and economic vista of Europe and asks whether Franco-German consensus is breaking down. The historical parallels Malan Rietveld Head of OMFIF Education are revealing. Michael Kaimakliotis is sceptical whether current financial market pricing Chief Economist adequately accounts for possible inflationary pressures in Europe. Tim Young, a former e: [email protected] member of the foreign exchange division at the Bank of England, asks whether the euro t: +1 (0)416 818 4566 has now sacrificed its opportunity to step into the D-Mark’s shoes. Gert van Deventer Chief Financial Officer Patrick Honohan, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, produces a brilliant analysis of e: [email protected] the interactions between banking imprudence and state finances that have contributed to t: +44 (0)20 3008 8421 Ireland’s economic problems – difficulties from which the Irish are now making exemplary Darrell Delamaide efforts to recover. Roel Janssen shows how eurosceptical forces are building in the Newswire Editor Netherlands – with no effect on parliamentary support for bail-outs up to now. e: [email protected] t: +1 (0)202 248 1561 As a summer distraction for our readers, the ever-inventive William Keegan reveals Tom Brown hitherto unknown heavenly correspondence on celestial and non-celestial economic issues Production Editor between Keynes and Einstein. Meghnad Desai pays tribute to our friend Peter Walker, e: [email protected] who died in June. t: +44 (0)20 3008 5269 Strictly no photocopying is permitted. It is illegal With best terrestrial wishes for a reflective July and August. y to reproduce, store in a central retrieval system or transmit, electronically or otherwise, any of the content of this publication without the prior consent of the publisher. All OMFIF members are entitled to PDFs of the current issue and to an archive of past issues via the member area of the OMFIF website: www.omfif.org While every care is taken to provide accurate Quote of the month information, the publisher cannot accept liability for any errors or omissions. ‘The balance of economic power is moving from West to East. No responsibility will be accepted for any loss occurred by any individual due to acting or We’ve all heard of the emerging economies. My new name for not acting as a result of any content in this publication. On any specific matter reference the euro area is the “sub-merging” economies.’ should be made to an appropriate adviser. Company Number: 7032533 Lord Meghnad Desai, Chairman, OMFIF Advisory Board 2 www.omfif.org OMFIF Official Monetary and Europe Financial Institutions Forum ECB propels moves towards reform Central bank seeks to combat the euro’s weaknesses Stewart Fleming, Board of Contributing Editors efore the trans-Atlantic crisis struck in 2007, Jean-Claude Trichet used to tell listeners Well before the Bthat the euro had established the same credibility in financial markets as the strongest of the national currencies it replaced, the Deutsche Mark. Greek crisis and its aftermath, the EU The European Central Bank president knew that, while this was technically true, leading had begun efforts to economists and financial market experts had long identified vulnerabilities in the euro’s foundations which cast doubt on the validity of the comparison. On 10 June, in a remarkable strengthen financial intervention into a politically-charged controversy, the ECB published its own ideas about market regulation. how to address some of these sources of weakness.
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