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Multi0page.Pdf Report No. 22078-TA The United Republic of Tanzania Public Disclosure Authorized Public Expenditure Review FY00 (In Two Volumes) Volume I: Public Disclosure Authorized Main Report January 2001 Public Disclosure Authorized Government of Tanzania and The World Bank Macrocconomics 2, Africa Region Public Disclosure Authorized FIELC ZT Ci 'VERNMTENTFISCAL. YEAR July 1 - June 30 (FY00 or 1999/00 = July 1, 1999 to June 30, 2000) CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Tanzanian Shilling (T Sh) Interbank Maiket mid-rate: US$1.00 = T Sh 8/7.0 (April 16, 2001) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYNIS ADT average daily traffic N1ECTANational ExamiinationsCouncil of AfDB African Development Bank T.anzarfia AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome NBC National Bank of Commerce AITF Agricultural Lnputs Trust Fund NGO non governmental ofganization ASYCUDA Computerized Customs Reporting and O&E organizational and efficiency (reviews) Recording System (IJNCTAD) O&M operations and maintenance BEMP Basic Education Master Plan OC other charges BOP Balance of Payment OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation BOT Bank of Tanzania and Development CBMS Cash Budget Management Systems OUT Open University of Tanzania CG Consultative Group PAYE pal as yon ear CSRP Civil Service Reform Programme PE personnel emoluments DANIDA Danish International Development PER Public Expenditure Review Agency PFP Policy Framework Paper DEO District Education Officer PHC Primarv HealtlhCare DMO District Medical Officer PSWB Public Sector Wage Bill DMT District, Municipal and Town Councils PT.R pupil teacher ratio ESAF Enhanced Structural AdjustmentFacility REO Regional Engineer's Office ESP Education Sector Programme REPFB Rolling Plan and Forward Budget FAO Food and Agriculture Organization SAC Structural Adjustment Credit GDP gross domestic product SAL Structural Adjustment Lending GNP gross national product SGR Strategic Grain Resenre GOT Government of Tanzania SIP Sector Investment Program HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries Debt SPA Special Program of Assistance Initiative SSA Sub-SaharanAfrica HIV Human Immuno-deficiencv Virus STD SexuallyTransmitted Disease IDA International Development Association TAC Tanzania Audit Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company IRP Integrated Roads Project TAZARA Tanzania Zambia Harbours Authority MAC Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives TB Tuberculosis MANTEP Educational Management Training THA Tanzania Harbours Authority Institute TRA Tanzania Revenue Authority MOEC Ministry of Education and Culture TRC Tanzania Railways Corporation MOF Ministry of Finance TTC Teacher Training Colleges MOH Ministry of Health UDSM University of Dar es Salaam MSTHE Ministry of Science, Teclmology and UNDP United Nations Development Program Higher Education UPE Uriversal Primary Education MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework VAT Value Added Tax Vice President CallistoMadavo Director: James W. Adams SectorManager: FrederickKilbv Task Team Leader: BelmoNdulu CONTENTS 1. PER PROCESS FOR FY00................................................................... 1. 1.1 AN OVERVIEWOF PER FY00 ................................................................... 1... 1.2 TECHNICAL STUDIES IN SUPPORT OF IMPROVED BUDGET MANAGEMENT ............................................ 2 1.3 IMPLEMENTATIONOF PER FY00 ................................................................... 4.. 1.4 LESSONSAND PROSPECTUS OF WORKFOR PERFYOI F. ................................................................... 5 . 2. REVIEW OF FISCAL PERFORMANCE ................................................................... 9 2.1 INTRODUCTION............... 9....................................................9 2.2 AGGREGATEFISCAL DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................... 9 Domestic Revenue and Foreign Inflows .................................................................... 9.. Government Expenditures.................................................................... 1.. Deficit Financing .................................................................... 13.. Budget Implementation .................................................................... 1. 2.3 SECTORALALLOCATIONS AND PRIORITIZATION ................................................................... 15 2.4 OPERATIONALEFFICIENCY ................................................................... 19. Public Sector Reform Program ................................................................... 2D. Availabilitv of Resourcesfor Operations and Maintenance ....................................... 2.0 Predictabilitv ofResource Availability ................................................................... 22 2.5. OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY - FINDINGS OF THE COMPTROLLER AND AUDITOR GENERAL ... 26 Introduction..226. Main Findings.. 27.. 2.6 ASSESSMENT OF INSTITUTIONS FOR IMPROVED BUDGET PERFORMANCE .9 2.7 ROAD FUND MANAGEMENT. 34. Background .. 34.. Key Issueson Road Fund Management .. 34 3. SYSTEMIC FISCAL ISSUES. 3 3.1 THE PLIGHT OF THE DEVELOPMENT BUDGET..................................................................... 3.8 3.2 DESIRABLELEVEL OF REVENUEMOBILIZATION ..................................................................... 41 3.3 FISCAL RESTRAINTAND CASH BUDGETMANAGEMENT SYSTEM ..................................................... 43 3.4 MACROECONOMICSTABILITY AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY.............................................................. 45 3.5 CO-EXISTENCE OF OVERALL FISCAL SURPLUS SIDE BY SIDE WRITHUNDER-FUNDING OF PRIORITY SECTORS .. 46.. 3.6 CONCERN ON ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY CONSTRAINT WITH INCREASING RESOURCES .46 3.7 EARMARKINGOF REVENUEAND THEEFFECTIVENESS OF BUDGETMANAGEMENT .47 3.8 PREDICTABILITYOF DONOR RESOURCES. 47 4. FISCAL POLICY AND THE MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT .49 4.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................ .49. 4.2 LINKS BETWEEN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE ACTIVITIES. ...................................................... 50 4.3 RESOIJRCESLIKELY TO BE AVAILABLETO THE GOVERNMENT FY01 - FY03 .................................. 51 4.4 THE GUIDELINESDOCUMENT ...................................................... 53. 4.5 ASPECTSOF DOMESTICCREDIT. ...................................................... 54. 4.6 FISCALOPTIONS ...................................................... .56.. 4.7 CONCLIJSION ........................................................ 5 5. EDUCATION SECTOR .6. 5.1 BASICEDUCATION ........... 6.. 5.1.1. Scope of the PER FY00 ........................... 60. 5.1.2 Recent Development&......................... 6D. 5.1.3 Expenditure Trends. .........................61. 5.1.4 Performance Trends ......................... 62. 5.1.5 Regional Variation......................... 63. 5.1.6 Budget and Expenditure Projections ......................... 6.4 5.1.7 Next Steps.......................... .4. 5.2 HIGHER AND TECHNICALEDUCATION ................................................................ 66 5.2.1 Recent Developments and Education Policy Context............................................................ 66 5.2.2 Sub-Sector Performance 1994-2000 ................................................................. A6 5.2.3 Financing of Higher Education ................................................................ 68 5.2.4 Analysis of Efficiency and Effectiveness of Higher and Technical Education ...................... 72 5.2.5 Review of Higher and Technical Education Sub-Sector Expenditure .:. .....................................75 5.2.6 Policy Recommendations ................................................................ 78 6. HEALTH SECTOR ................................................................... 6.1 INTRODUCTION.D Background..80. Health Sector Reforms . 6.2 HEALTH POLICY OBJECTIVES.. 6.3 STATUS OF THE HEALTH SYSTEM . L 6.4 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE .82 Background .. 82. Analysis of Expenditure Trends in the Health Sector .. 82 Sub-Sector Budget Allocations .. 83. Analysis ofHealth Sector Funding Requirement ... 84 Priority Areas .. 84.. Proposals for the FYO Budget .. 86. 7. WATER SECTOR ................... K 7.1 INTRODUCTION................. 8 Water Sector PER Objectives for FY01................................................ 827 PER Study Approach and Methodology ................................................. 7 7.2 ISSUES RELATED TO BUDGET PERFORMANCE FOR FY98-FYOO ................................................ 87 Total Budget .................................................. 87 Capital Budget Issues ................................................ .8 . Recurrent Budget Issues ................................................ 8. Budget Ceiling ................................................ 89.. Impact oJfExpenditure on Water Sector Development ........................................... 89 7.3 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK AND CAPACITY BUILDING ................................................ 9.0 Main Institutional Administrative Issues and Concerns.......................................... 91 7.4 CURRENT STATUS OF WATER SECTOR PERFORMANCE ........................................... 91 Surface Water ........ .91 Groundwater ......... 92.. Rainfall ......... 92.. Rural Water Supply ........ .. 92. Urban Water Supplv and Sewerage .. 93. Irrigation .. 9.9...... Hydropower Generation ......... 94. Conflicts in JaterUses ......... 95. 7.5 WATER SECTOR POLICY OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES FOR THE FY01I ......... _ ...... .......... 95 The Development and Water Sector Vision ...................................................
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