Humanitarian concerns: An estimated 9.3 million people are in need of REGIONAL ANALYSIS SYRIA humanitarian assistance in Syria. The 2014 Syrian Humanitarian Assistance Response Plan (SHARP) requested USD 2.28 billion for aid provided from 03 July 2014 Damascus. As of June, only 27% of this funding had been secured. Without Part I – Syria further donor commitment, lifesaving assistance to vulnerable communities is expected to be cut drastically. Furthermore, with the summer arriving, Water is Content Part I This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict (RAS) becoming a serious problem in terms of availability and quality. This contributes is now produced quarterly, replacing the monthly Overview to health concerns, with a reported increase in waterborne diseases, such as RAS of 2013. It seeks to bring together information Timeline 2014 Q2 main events from all sources in the region and provide holistic acute diarrhoea in Damascus, Rural Damascus, Deir-ez-Zor and Al- Hasakeh. analysis of the overall Syria crisis. Operational constraints Protection continues to be a major issue in areas affected by violence, with a Humanitarian profile While Part I focuses on the situation within Syria, rise in indiscriminate attacks on civilians, including children. The number of Part II covers the impact of the crisis on Armed conflict children killed has increased disproportionately since mid-February, notably in neighbouring countries. Displacement profile Aleppo and Dar’a. Food remains an area of concern due to the lack of More information on how to use this document can Country sectoral analysis livelihoods, rising prices, population movements and constriction of aid. be found on page 69. Please note that words that Annex A: Governorate profiles are underlined are hyperlinked to their location Annex B: Information gaps and either on internet or to navigate within the report. data limitations Possible Developments The Syria Needs Analysis Project welcomes all Annex C: Expanded sections information that could complement this report. For Instances of negotiations in Rural Damascus: Reported attempts of negotiations more information, comments or questions please Annex D: Definitions email [email protected]. Other SNAP reports between Gos and opposition have taken place in Harasta, Mleiha and Hajar-Aswad. Map data sources Terms of negotiations will depend on future military developments, but could be related to topics such as ceasefire agreements, lifting of sieges, withdrawal of armed groups How to use the RAS? and regularisation of opposition fighters. Overview Instability in the northeast and on the border with Turkey and Iraq: IS’s push in Iraq has allowed the group to establish a link with Deir-ez-Zor, Al- Hasakeh and Conflict and political developments: Elections were held in early June, when Aleppo. Fighting between IS and other armed groups may occur, but it is more likely Bashar Al-Assad won a third 7-year term. In the last few months, the Government that the various non-state actors in the northeast will avoid or minimise confrontation of Syria (GoS) made significant progress taking almost full control of the as long as negotiations around oil-wealth distribution are ongoing. However, there are Qalamoun region, including opposition supply lines with Lebanon. reports of cases of abuse against civilians by IS, and the multiplicity of armed groups in the northeast could increase the general level of insecurity, causing small-scale While the Islamic State (IS) formerly known as the Islamic of Iraq and the Levant displacement and further protection issues. (ISIL or ISIS) has recently gained sizable portions of Iraqi territory, it has also been pushed back from Idleb and Aleppo city, withdrawing to its Raqqa No improvement of access despite new draft resolution: UN Security members are stronghold. As a result, other opposition groups have been able to make small considering a new resolution to authorise cross-border deliveries at 4 crossing points advances to Northern Hama, Southern Idleb, western Aleppo and Quneitra. with Turkey, Jordan and Iraq. The GoS has indicated it would consider the proposal with a number of restrictions to control the delivery of aid (approval of implementing Displacements: In Q2, at least an additional 688,000 people were displaced, partners, locations of distribution and type of assistance). Even if the resolution is which adds to the 793,000 displaced in Q1. These displacements mostly adopted, access is unlikely to significantly improve. occurred in Deir-ez-Zor and Idleb. Smaller-scale displacements were also recorded in Aleppo, Rural Damascus, Al- Hasakeh, Lattakia and Da’ra. Reduced water level: Drought-like conditions are of major concern. The main focus has been on their impact on agricultural production and subsequent food security. Access: Overall, the UN Security Council’s 2139 resolution has not fulfilled its Wheat yields for 2014 are expected to be 50% below the 10-year average. promises, while new regulations regarding the sealing of convoys further limited Additionally, the Euphrates Lake is at an unprecedentedly low level. This, combined access. The lack of information on needs in besieged areas is a source of with water infrastructure damage caused by conflict, is likely to significantly impact concern: estimates indicate that up to 3.5 million vulnerable people are still living water availability and electricity production. in besieged areas and areas inaccessible to official assistance from Damascus. SNAP: Regional Analysis Syria – Part I: Syria – 03 July 2014 Page 1 of 70 2014 Q2 Timeline – Main events Syria New Government of Syria (GoS) Border closures and new waves of restrictions on aid convoys: On 5 displacement: The Peshkapour border Conflict developments and President Assad Local Peace agreements: May, the GoS started implementing new crossing with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq re-elected: Bachir-Al-Assad was re-elected as Early May saw a ceasefire in guidelines requiring all aid convoys to be (KR -I) was closed to refugees and the the President of Syria on 5 June. Opposition the besieged Old City of sealed in the presence of security Government of the Kurdistan Region of fighters had stepped up mortar attacks on GoS- Homs, with around 2,000 authorities and Syrian Arab Red Iraq (KR-G) constructed a trench, thereby held areas prior to the elections. Kasab, a town opposition fighters evacuated Crescent (SARC). The new procedure further constraining the movement of in northern Lattakia, bordering Turkey, was to the north. The truce also has caused major delays in aid goods and people in and out of Iraq. On retaken by the SAF in mid-June. By the end of gave aid access to besieged deliveries to targeted locations, as the Turkish side, increased restrictions May, opposition fighters had taken over a Nabul and Zahraa in northern reported by WFP. have prevented the smuggling of goods strategic town in southern Idleb. SAF offensives Aleppo. Many returnees Formal economy deterioration: and people, particularly from the Kurdish against opposition groups have been highly streamed back to their homes according to the Syrian Center for Policy region. In April, the Syrian Armed Forces related to IS progress in eastern Syria. While IS in Old City neighbourhoods, Research, by the end of 2013 GDP had (SAF) took control of the Qalamoun has been advancing in Deir-ez-Zor against Jabat despite the lack of water and contracted by 60% since the start of the region and increased control of illegal al-Nusra, an expected agreement between the electricity. A truce has also crisis, unemployment increased to 54% entries between Syria and Lebanon. two groups is likely to end the fighting in the been reached in Al Waer of the labour force and the overall Military operations moved to Eastern governorate. neighbourhood in Homs, poverty rate reached 75%. The GoS Ghouta coupled with opposition in-fighting Amnesty: After President Assad’s re-election, a where tens of thousands live, started to reduce its expenditure, for in Deir-ez-Zor. This caused new waves of general amnesty was declared on 9 June. A few and in other areas in southern example it was reported that the displacement and the establishment of hundred prisoners were released, while tens of Damascus. contracts of 4,500 public workers in Ar- new IDP camps in Aleppo, Dar’a, Al- thousands remain in jail. Raqqa would not be renewed. Hasakeh and Idleb. April May Jun Jul- Aug– Sept Jun Water shortages: Water supply disruptions have Possible developments: Food security concerns rise: The been used as a new tactic in the conflict. Severe Euphrates low water levels: Jul- Aug– Sept Increase in local truces: Following GoS raised the price of gasoline by water shortages were reported in the western half Water levels at the Euphrates Lake April the increase in local peace 20% while wheat production was of Aleppo city in April, due to opposition control of fell to unprecedentedly low levels, agreements in the Old city of Homs estimated to be just 50% of the pre- the water pumping station. In Damascus and Deir- for reasons including the amount of and around Damascus, new areas crisis 10-year average. Ongoing ez-Zor, water and electricity shortages were water pumped from Turkey to Syria. Syrian officials reported that come under ceasefire in Rural besiegement policies and access reported following alleged infrastructure attacks. constraints, which widely disregard Turkey had completely cut off the Damascus. These attacks, combined with hampered access for UN Security Council resolution 2139, maintenance and drought-like conditions, make supply of water to Syria for 13 Ongoing access constraints: continue to deprive people of their water availability a priority concern. consecutive days in May, and Operational constraints remain high, basic nutritional requirements. By Accessibility: At the start of May, IS tightened partially for sporadic days in March particularly in Deir-ez-Zor, Ar- April, at least 299 Syrians had died control over the main supply routes to Deir-ez-Zor and June.