Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized and NorthAfrica the WaterGapinMiddleEast An EmergingSolutiontoClose Desalination Renewable Energy MENA MENA DEVELOPMENT REPORT DEVELOPMENT FOR BACKGROUND STUDIES The World Bank commissioned multiple intensive background studies that led up to “Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging Solution to Close MENA’s Water Gap.” These background studies were summarized in two major reports, also commissioned by the Bank: “MENA Water Outlook to 2050” and the “Use of Desalination and Renewable Energy to Close the Water Demand Gap in MENA.” These reports can be accessed at www.worldbank.org/mna/watergap Renewable Energy Desalination MENA DEVELOPMENT REPORT Renewable Energy Desalination An Emerging Solution to Close the Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa © 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 15 14 13 12 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0) http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2012. Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging Solution to Close the Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8838-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-8838-9 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-7980-6 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8838-9 Cover photo: Getty Images, Inc. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Renewable energy desalination : an emerging solution to close the Middle East and North Africa’s water gap. p. cm. — (MENA development report) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8213-8838-9 (alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8213-9457-1 1. Saline water conversion—Middle East. 2. Saline water conversion—Africa, North. 3. Renewable energy sources—Middle East. 4. Renewable energy sources—Africa, North. TD478.6.M628R46 2012 628.1’67—dc23 2012020581 Contents Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xix Overview 1 1. Introduction 19 Origin and Purpose of This Study 20 Chapter Summaries 22 Note 24 References 24 2. MENA’s Water Gap Will Grow Fivefold by 2050 25 Water Availability and Demand 26 MENA’s Current Water Balance: Already in the Red 28 Climate Change Threatens MENA’s Future Water Availability 29 MENA’s Future Water Demand: Population and GDP Factor 31 Future Water Balance: The Gap Grows 34 Imperative for Demand and Supply Management 36 Notes 43 References 44 3. Closing MENA’s Water Gap Is Costly and Challenging 45 Strategic Approach 46 Unit Costs of Tactical Options 48 Alleviating the Demand Gap 50 Phasing of Tactical Options Strongly Influenced by Sunk Investment 54 Transition from Conventional to CSP Desalination 55 v vi Renewable Energy Desalination Phasing the Tactical Options 56 Costs of Adaptation Measures 56 Notes 59 References 60 4. Desalination in MENA and Its Energy Implications 63 Growth of Desalination in MENA and Associated Challenges 65 Future Trends in Desalination 69 Desalination Will Increase MENA’s Energy Demand 74 Can Energy Intensity of Desalination Be Reduced? 76 MENA’s Renewable Energy Potential 77 Notes 84 References 84 5. Potential for Renewable Energy Desalination 87 Factors Affecting Renewable Energy Desalination Linkages 87 CSP and Desalination Plant Design Considerations 93 Innovation and Scaling-Up Will Reduce Costs 105 Notes 108 References 109 6. Environmental Impacts of Desalination 111 Desalination: Atmospheric Pollution 111 Desalination: Marine Pollution 112 Desalination-Brine Disposal Options 115 Necessity for Environmental Impact Assessment 122 Regional Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Are Needed 122 Notes 124 References 124 7. CSP Desalination and Regional Energy Initiatives 127 Energy Consumption in MENA 128 Managing Barriers to Renewable Energy-Based Desalination 131 Notes 139 References 139 8. Conclusions 141 MENA’s Water Scarcity Is Bound to Grow 141 MENA Increasingly Will Rely on Desalination 142 Solar Energy Is MENA’s Abundant Renewable Resource 142 Costs of Inaction Will Be High 143 The Solutions Are at Hand 144 Next Steps 144 Note 145 Contents vii Appendix A Water Demand and Supply in MENA Region 147 Climate Change Will Affect MENA’s Future Water Supply 148 Current and Future Water Demand 157 Notes 166 References 168 Appendix B Imperative for Demand and Supply Management 169 Improving Institutions 169 Demand Management 172 Conventional Supply Management Options Are Limited 181 Notes 185 References 186 Appendix C The True Cost of Desalination 189 Notes 197 References 197 Appendix D Summary of Renewable Energy Policies and Legislation in MENA 199 Notes 206 Reference 208 Boxes 4.1 Desalination Is a Possible Option for Sana’a, The Republic of Yemen, but Transport Costs Could Be Prohibitive 73 5.1 GemaSolar Central Receiver Plant Project, Fuentes de Andalucía, Spain 92 6.1 Cutting Environmental Management Costs: Brine Harvesting 122 7.1 How Increased Energy Intensity Can Lead to Overall Energy Savings 130 B.1 Priorities for Reducing Nonrevenue Water 180 B.2 Recycled Water Is a Valuable Resource: Examples from Kuwait and Tunisia 184 Figures O.1 Sources of New Water Supplies by 2050 8 O.2 Distribution of Worldwide Desalination Capacity, 2007 9 O.3 Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants Compared to Specific Cost of Peak-, Medium-, and Baseload Plants (Annualized Costs) 14 2.1 Water Resources Availability and Use in MENA Countries 28 viii Renewable Energy Desalination 2.2 Predicted Water Availability in the MENA Region, 2010–50 30 2.3 Relation between per Capita Domestic Water Withdrawals and GDP per Capita 32 2.4 Value of Groundwater Depletion in Selected MENA Countries as a Share of GDP 37 2.5 High-Tech Agricultural Packages Increase Water Use Efficiency 39 2.6 Cost Range for Water Reuse 42 3.1 Schematic Representation of Marginal Water Cost Curve 47 3.2 Desalination Will Play a Significant Role in Closing the Water Demand Gap in Most MENA Countries by 2040–50 52 3.3 Ranking and Magnitude of Tactical Options to Fill the Water Gap by 2050 Vary Considerably by Country 53 3.4 Typical Desalination Plant Life Curves, 2010–50 55 3.5 Maximum Annual Capacity Additions for CSP Desalination Plants in MENA 56 3.6 Cost-Optimized Pattern of Future Water Supply for MENA under the “Average” Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 57 4.1 Distribution of Worldwide Desalination Capacity, 2007 64 4.2 Share of National Water Demand in MENA Met by Desalination, 2010 64 4.3 Growth of On-Line Desalination Capacity in MENA, 1950–2010 67 4.4 Forecast of Annual Global Growth of Desalination by Technology, 2006–16 69 4.5 MENA Prominent among Top 15 Desalination Markets, 2007–16 70 4.6 Components of Total Annual Desalination Costs 76 4.7 Reduction in MSF Desalination Cost, 1955–2005 77 4.8 Reduction in RO Power Consumption, 1970–2010 77 5.1 Global Renewable Energy Desalination by Energy Source, 2009 88 5.2 Renewable Energy Production from Photovoltaics, Wind, and Concentrating Solar Power at Hurghada Site, Egypt 90 5.3 Storage System in a Trough Solar Plant 94 5.4 Different Configurations of CSP Thermal Storage 95 5.5 Linear Fresnel Collector, Plataforma Solar de Almeria, Spain 97 5.6 Linking the Choice of Solar Collection System to Power Generation and Desalination 98 Contents ix 5.7 Typical Configurations of CSP Desalination by the Type of Renewable Energy 100 5.8 CSP Desalination Plant Configurations 101 5.9 Levelized Water Production Costs by Plant Type and Location 104 5.10 Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants Compared to Specific