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Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential

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Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Fall 08 Public Disclosure Authorized Final Report Vendor number: 135382 Date: 11 December 2014 Public Disclosure Authorized MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential About the Study As part of its sustainable energy development program, the World Bank (WB) has initiated a study entitled, “MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential.” The study aims to deliver a detailed survey to develop strategies for raising energy efficiency in the MENA region. There are several tasks envisioned during the course of the project, including: (1) screening/gap analysis and coordination with partners; (2) energy projections, efficiency potential and benefits; (3) lessons from scaling-up energy efficiency investments in other regions; (4) mapping of policies and delivery mechanisms; and (5) policy implications. This report presents findings of the second task, a study on energy projections, efficiency potential and benefits. Authors Emmanuel Bergasse, Therese El Gemayel, Rana El-Guindy Reviewers Nurzat Myrsalieva, Adel Mourtada, Maged Mahmoud Contributors RCREEE would like to thank various stakeholders for their review of the initial planning for implementing this project, in addition to member countries representatives that provided their feedback on the output of this report: - Mr. Sohbet Karbuz, Director of Hydrocarbons Division, Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie (OME) - Mr. Vladimir Kubecek, Energy Statistics Section, International Energy Agency - Ms. Wafa Aboul Hosn, Head of Economic Statistics Section, UNESCWA - Dr. Abdel Ali Dakkina, Directeur du Pôle de la Stratégie et du Développement, Agence Nationale ADEREE, Morocco - Mr. Abdelaziz Bourahla, Energy, Environment and Statistics Expert - Mr. Mohammed Al Badrawy, Energy Statistics Expert, independent Consultant - Mr. Mongi Bida, Energy Officer, UNESCWA - Mr. Nasser Al-Ruwaili, Advisor to H.E the Chief Executive of Electricity & Water Authority, Water and Electricity Authority, Bahrain - Mr. Abdelhamid Khalafallah, Deputy Director of Energy Efficiency, Ministry of Industry and Technology / General Energy Dirtectory, Tunisia - Mr. Fawzi Ben Zaid, Ministry of Energy & Mines, Algeria - Mr. Ramy Aly Mohammed, Director Renewable Energy, Manager of Renewable Energy Department, Yemen - Mr. Younes Ali, Deputy General Director, NERC, Syria - Mr. Ziad El-Zein, Public Relations Officer, Lebanese Centre for Energy Concentration - Mr. Yacoub Elias Marar, Head of Solar Energy Section, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jordan 1 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential - Mr. Bassel Yassin, Director Energy Environmental Impact Department, Palestinian Energy and Environmental Research Center (PEC), Palestinian Energy Authority (PEA) - Mr. Mohamed Sidon, Director of the Chairman Office of Renewable Energy Authority of Libya, Renewable Energy Authority of Libya - Mr. Naseer Kareem Kasim, Head of Department, Renewable Energy and Environment Center, Iraq - Mr. Sharf Eldin ElAgieb, Electricity Regulatory Authority ERA, Sudan - Ms. Helen Naser, Consultant (GFA Group) - Mr. Ali Abo Sena, Director of National Center for Cleaner Production, Egypt - Ms. Ruba Al-Zubi, Clean Technology Sector Director at USAID "Jordan Competitiveness Program” (JCP) - Mr. Tarek Saleh, Resource Efficiency and Cleaner Production Specialist, Egypt National Cleaner Production Center (ENCPC), Ministry of Trade, Industry and SMEs - Mr. Habib El Andaloussi, Chief of Energy Section, Sustainable Development and Productivity Division, UNESCWA - Mr. Rafik Missaoui, Energy Efficiency Consultant, Tunisia - Mr. Mohammed Ahachad, National Coordinator of the EE Program in Building (CEEB)/UNDP, ADEREE, Morocco - Ms. Dalia Abdelhalim El-Toukhy, KAHRA MAA, Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation, Conservation and Energy Efficiency Department - Mr. Mohamed Dabbas, Head of Energy Efficiency department, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jordan - Mr. Ihab Ismail, Head of the Planning Department, New Renewable Energy Authority, Egypt - Mr. Tareq Akel, Financial advisor baker, AZI, Jordan - Ms. Salma Aouinti, financial manager, ANME, Jordan - Ms. Caroline Orjebin-Yousfaoui, project manager Water energy transport, IPEMED - Mr. Steffen Erdle, Head of the Regional Project RE-ACTIVATE “Promoting Development and Employment through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RE/EE) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)”, GIZ - Ms. Rima le Coguic, Deputy Head of the Sustainable Energy and Transport Division, AFD - Mr. Christian de Gromard, AFD - Mr. Abdel Rahman A. Maali, Technical Advisor to the Ministry of Water, Resources and Electricity, Sudan - Ms. Wafaa Mahmoud Al Obaidi, Senior Chief Engineer, Ministry of Oil, Iraq - Mr. Dhahwi Al Hameli, Director of Emergency Electrical Networks Department, Ministry of Electricity and Water, Kuwait - Ms. Sorina Mortada, Technical Consultant to Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC) - Mr. Sam Gouda, President and Lead Expert, Creara International LLC, Egypt - Mr. Ezzedine Khalfallah, Independent Consultant, Tunisia - Ms. Florentine Visser, Key Expert EE Building & Urban Planning, MED-ENEC 2 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Contents 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 8 2 Data, Methodology, and Key Assumptions ................................................................ 9 2.1 Data ............................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Methodology and Key Assumptions ................................................................ 12 2.2.1 Energy Demand Projections .................................................................... 12 2.2.2 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 13 2.2.3 Cost of Conserved Energy ....................................................................... 16 2.2.4 Reductions in Energy Expenditures and Avoided Investments ...................... 18 3 Results for the MENA Region ................................................................................ 20 3.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ......................................................... 20 3.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ....................................................................... 20 3.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ....................................................................... 21 3.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ............................................................................ 23 3.4.1 Electricity .............................................................................................. 23 3.4.2 End-Use Sectors .................................................................................... 23 3.4.3 Country Comparison ............................................................................... 25 3.4.4 Projections for 2020 and 2025 ................................................................. 26 3.4.5 CO2 Emissions ....................................................................................... 27 4 Results by Country ............................................................................................. 29 4.1 Algeria ........................................................................................................ 29 4.1.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 29 4.1.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 30 4.1.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 30 4.1.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 32 4.1.5 Energy Efficiency Potential in 2020 and 2025 ............................................ 34 4.2 Bahrain ....................................................................................................... 35 4.2.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 35 4.2.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 36 4.2.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 36 4.2.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 37 4.2.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 40 4.3 Egypt ......................................................................................................... 41 4.3.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 41 3 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.3.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 42 4.3.3 Energy Outlook 2025 .............................................................................. 42 4.3.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 44 4.3.5 Energy Efficiency potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 46 4.3.6 Cost of conserved energy .......................................................................
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