The map of natural global catastrophic risks Universe Galactic Solar Earth Biosphere Species level Combined Past Human Probability system examples affected shifts False vacuum Gamma-ray Sun Atmosphere Pandemics “Normal” species Impact and new Five great Climate: Anthropic shadow • Superflare,wiki ,results radioctiv- • Pandemic (flu, AIDS, fungi) extinction decay bursts • Atmospheric composition change • The confluence of a set of many ity, ozon layaer damage, electric • Fungi are known to cause ex- specie extinctions global warming (disappearance of oxygen) adverse circumstances We could underestimate probabilities equpment failures tinction of species • Our vacuum could be not real • Destruction of ozon • Release of toxic gases • Changing environment and Catastrophe could give advantage to Runaway global warming driven by of past extinctions because of observa- • Super pest, and could transit in another state • Nitric clouds in the atmosphere (volcanism, methane hydrates, competitors the new ecosystem methane hydrates tional selection effects (Bostrom, Cir- • Dangerous carrier • Abrupt transition with light speed • Induced radiation, ionisation of dissolved gases in the ocean) • Most species extinct in 3-6 million • Ordovician-Silurian mass covich). the atmosphere • Hypercane (disturbance of (mosquitoes) • Nothing can be done years extinction • Wiki • Direct burns stability of the atmosphere, in case • Natural green goo • WR104 - dangerous hypernova of global warming) • Late Devonian mass extinc- candidate • Ozon depletion resulting in UV ra- tion • Ordovican extinction may be was diation • Permian mass extinction caused by GRB • May affect Earth every 5 mln Genetic factors • Triassic-Jurassic mass ex- years. wiki Competitors tinction Ecology Anthropogenic • Evolution • Cretaceous-Tertiary mass • Another type of humans pressure and ability to • Genetic drift and errors accumula- extinction (like Homo sapience were for tion • Food chains collapse Impactors Supervolcano Neanderthals) prevent risks • Over specialization and than sud- • Regeneration ability collapse • Another type of intelligent • Known supervolcanos (20) den change of the environment • Waste management collapse (CO2, • Asteroids specie • Our ability to prevent most natural • Comets • Rift eruption, flood basalt event • Dangerous alleles dissemination arsenic etc) risks is rising Magnetars • Impacts with Moon or other plan- • New hot spot (Bolivia) • But our pressure on nature is also • Kimberlite pipe explosion • The simular effects as from gam- ets resulting in space debris rising • Explosion of natural toluol in 100 ma bursts, wiki • Periods of bombardments caused km deep pocket, link • Nearest is 20 000 ly by destabilisation of Oort cloud or by disintegration of a large comet • Explosion of overheated water in • Collision of asteroids results in de- deep pocket bris shower • Verneshot – gas explosion from Organisms Evolving into beneath of craton Extinction of • Dangerous predator something else Artificial Nearby supernova Consequences: • Food decline similar species • Volcanic winter • Evolutionary pressure change supervolcanos • Gamma-rays, wiki • Poisonous gases, acidic rains alleles distribution • Ozon layer damage • Climate affecting gases: CO2, • New traits appear • Neanderthals • Deep drilling • Neutrinos damage DNA (elastic H2S • Homo Florentines • Stevenson probes scattering) • Dust in the air is dangerous for • Nuclear explosions • Cloud of radioactive isotops breathing reachs Earth • Effects of explosion: tsunami, sound, debris, piroclastic flows Impact and Big Rip Biodiversity Fluctuation of the Scientifically accepted theories loss specie numerosity volcanos Bostrom’s upper limit • Dark energy results in accelerat- below critical threshold on the frequency of ing expanding of the universe, Dark comets • Fires in large coal bed which finally tears Earth apart. Interstellar cloud • Ecosystem needs many species • Evoking a supervolacinc eruptions Smaller historic extinc- galactic catastrophes • It is similar to false vacuum de- • Link Climate changes for existence • Asteroid impact results in many cay but slower event. • Ecological collapse Low numerosity and bad luck may volcanic eruptions Small impact dim Sun light • Large black undetectable bodies • Global warming (PETM, Venus) tions and catastrophic • But accelerated expanding of the • Food chain collapse (Bee col- result in extinction, if numerosity will • Iron impactor penetrate deep in which are not NEO most of time • New stable state of atmosphere Less than one in 1 billion years for universe is confiremed by obser- If Sun pass through sufficiently lapse disorder) fall below threshold mantle and it create a channel to events starts accidental • Centauri as their progenitors with 55 C medium T. any galactic catastrophe, Link vations dence cloid of interstellar matter it • Oxygen production collapse molten iron in the earth core. (Like • PEMT • Tails of decayed comets full of • Ice age • It could happen in 22 bln years could attract it and will partly dim • Destruction of ecological niche Siberian trapps?) • Young Drais nuclear war debris resulting in bombardment • Snow ball Earth • Wiki sun light resulting in global cooling episodes • Toba eruption • Snowball Earth Collision with Active Galactic Holocen Worldwide Ecosystem Change of habitat Artificial provoking End of stability another bran nucleus bombardment earthquake evolves to of natural period Collision with another universe in Sagittarius A is now dormant but • Some scientists think that we • Ocean rift zone crack extinction Humans were more likely to appear multidimensional space may help was active before, like quasar. live in the period of intense • Large vertical movement of a catastrophes during improbably stable periods in to create our universe. And could May be able to produce jets? bombardment (Clovis comet 13k continent because of change of Earth history, and so we could be in • Anti-Gaya theory end it. years ago) and other hypotheti- byonancy • Asteroid deflection to Earth the end of such period. • Oxygen catastrophe in the past cal events, resulting from recent • Unknown processes in the Earth • Stevenson probe to the Earth core • CO2 depletion in the future destruction of large 100 km size core • Artificial global warming by nuclear comet, link explosions in methane hydrates de- posits • It rises background risks 100 • Artificial nuclear winter Dark matter • Explosion of nukes in supervolcanos Underestimating • Arifical verneshort as result of very • Clouds of dark matter could ac- Lost of genetic deep drilling into cavity with over- fragility of our crete on Earth and annihilate into Oceans pressured gas beneath craton. its core, resulting in its heating environment • Degasation - SH4, CO2, CH4 diversity within • Large open mines for dymonds in • Dark matter could also annihilate Kymberlit provinces could weaken (Ryskin 2003), like on Nios lake, We could underestimate fragility of inside the Sun lythosphera and result in vernshort resulting on firestroms, global specie and result- environment because of anthropic • Other unknowns are possible Explosions of Toxic bacteria (like in Mirny) cooling or heating. shadow • Anxious event ing fragility other planets • Poisonous microorganisms • Red tide - toxic marine bacteria, • Large worldwide tsunami • Primordial back holes merge horizontal gene transfer play role Human being are very similar geneti- inside a planet and half energy here. cally because of bottle neck 70 000 results in explosion • Halogen producing bacteria may ago and rapid population growth Residual dark Primordial black • Explosions of natural nuclear destroyed ozon layer in the past, Volatile period was reactors inside planets during Great extinction (russian Humans help to energy converts holes link) needed for formation • Such hole could be inside Earth’s Earth’s core into matter core. Its evaporation produces ener- evolve new of human universal gy equal to collision with 10 km as- • Degasation of H2, CO2, O2, H20 from intelligence New Big Bang, similar to false vac- teroids (1000 tons energy). It would earh core based on different hypothesis viruses uum decay of its composition, and change of atmos- be felt as worldwide earthquake. Intelligence as universal adaptation is pheric composition • In farms, by mixing many ani- • They also could merge inside Earth more effective and quickly evolve in • Large eruption of molten iron from upper mals core resulting in large energy re- Sun changing environments, and current core • By introducing new animals in lease. ice age is such environment. Hypothetical and remote events: • Black tide - eruption of abiogenic oil. remote habitats. • Heating by WIMPs • Sungazing comets: 100 km comet • Natural reactor inside and its explosion impact on the Sun may increase • Phase transition of Fe crystal in the inner Interstellar its luminosity 100 times for several core, collapse of it. seconds only because of the en- • As central core grow, gases concentration ergy of explosion ( speed of impact is growing in outer core, which rise their asteroids and particular pressure and chance that they will be 600 km sec) Overpopulation rogue planets • Comets may also interact with sun magnetic field resulting in large Passage of nearby star close resulting in flares. enough to de-stabilise Oort cloud Earth’s core and • Event of convection: change of resources exhaus- buoyancy inside the sun, fresh magnetic field Human observa- hydrogen goes to the core (Idea of tion and popula- Shklovsky,