probably false Green Red 2016, CC3.0 [email protected], Created by Alexey Turchin,

-mostprobablerisks Hypothetical, non-proven or very unprobable theories Scientifically accepted theories Description ofthemap -my crazy ideas, most • timethreshold Universe unhabitableaftersome • energy converts • • • • • uum decay New BigBang,similartofalsevac inside planetsandeverywhere holes resultsinconstantexplosions E.g: evaporation of primordial black end it. to createouruniverse. Andcould multidimensional spacemay help Collision withanotheruniverse in • • • • Some processwillmake the Residual dark False vacuum Collision with another bran Wiki It couldhappenin22blnyears vations universe isconfiremed by obser But accelerated expandingofthe cay butslowerevent. It issimilartofalsevacuum de which finallytearsEarthapart. ing expandingoftheuniverse, Dark energyresultsinaccelerat Wiki Nothing canbedone Abrupt transition withlightspeed and could transit in another state Our vacuum couldbenotreal Late cutoff: into matter Universe Big Rip decay - - - - Nearby supernova • • • • Gravitation ofthe Interstellar cloud sun lightresultinginglobalcooling could attract itandwillpartlydim dence cloidofinterstellarmatterit If Sunpassthroughsufficiently • • • Primordial black lease. core resultinginlargeenergyre They alsocouldmergeinsideEarth be feltasworldwideearthquake. teroids (1000tonsenergy).Itwould gy equaltocollisionwith10kmas core. Itsevaporation producesener Such holecouldbeinsideEarth’s • • • • seems thatenergyisnotenough) able soundorearthquakes (butit press theEarthandcreateunbear large blackholesmergecouldcom Gravitational waves fromvery of galacticplane Sun passthroughmostdensepart regular cometbombardmentthen Affects Oortcloudandresultsin Active Galactic May beabletoproducejets? was active before,like quasar. Sagittarius Aisnowdormantbut • • • • • • • • • enough tode-stabiliseOortcloud Passage ofnearby starclose asteroidsand dim Sunlight rogue planets Galaxyplane Other unknownsarepossible inside theSun Dark mattercouldalsoannihilate its core,resultinginheating crete onEarthandannihilateinto Clouds ofdarkmattercouldac reachs Earth Cloud ofradioactive isotops scattering) Neutrinos damageDNA(elastic Ozon layer damage Gamma-rays, years. May affectEarthevery 5mln caused by GRB Ordovican extinctionmay bewas candidate WR104 -dangeroushypernova Direct burns the atmosphere Induced radiation, ionisationof Nitric cloudsintheatmosphere Destruction ofozon ma bursts, The simulareffectsasfromgam Nearest is20000ly Dark matter Gamma-ray Interstellar Magnetars Galactic nucleus bursts wiki holes wiki wiki ------The mapofnatural globalcatastrophic risks • • • • • • • Hypothetical andremoteevents: • • • • • • • • • • • equpment failures ity, ozon layaer damage,electric Superflare, fects field couldhave muchstrongeref CME duringlowEarthmagnetic Long termrisingluminosity trend lethal forEarth cent changeofluminosity willbe may belessstable.Even 10per Changes ofluminosity: olderSun solved) as thesolarneutrinoparadox is Shklovsky, 1984,nowabandoned hydrogen goestothecore(Ideaof buoyancy insidethesun,fresh Event ofconvection: changeof flares. magnetic fieldresultinginlarge Comets may alsointeract withsun will be600kmsec) ergy ofexplosion(speedimpact seconds onlybecauseoftheen its luminosity 100timesforseveral impact ontheSunmay increase Sungazing comets:100kmcomet bris shower Collision ofasteroidsresultsinde by disintegration ofalargecomet by destabilisationofOortcloudor Periods ofbombardmentscaused ets resultinginspacedebris Impacts withMoonorotherplan Comets Asteroids bombardment episodes debris resultinginbombardment Tails ofdecayed cometsfullof Centauri astheirprogenitors which arenotNEOmostoftime Large blackundetectablebodies Link • • other planets Explosions of Dark comets comet, destruction oflarge100kmsize cal events, resultingfromrecent years ago)andotherhypotheti- bombardment (Clovis comet13k live intheperiodofintense Some It risesbackgroundrisks100 reactors insideplanets Explosions ofnatural nuclear results inexplosion inside aplanetandhalfenergy Primordial backholesmerge Impactors Holocen system scientists thinkthatwe Solar link Sun Sun wiki ,resultsradioctiv . - - - - -

dissolved gasesintheocean) (volcanism, methanehydrates, (disappearance ofoxygen) • • • • • • • • • • • • Climate changes diation • Ozon depletionresultinginUVra- of globalwarming) stability oftheatmosphere,incase • Hypercane

period) -Krasilov, cedes trap volcanism (andwelive insuch Periods ofchangingmagneticfieldpre vanish orcoincidewithsuperflare But itisnotdangerousifcompletely and Magnetic fieldreversal -ithappensmore particular pressureandchancethatthey is growinginoutercore,whichrisetheir As central coregrow, gasesconcentration core, collapseofit. Phase transition ofFe crystalintheinner Natural reactorinsideanditsexplosion Heating by WIMPs Black tide-eruptionofabiogenicoil. core Large eruptionofmoltenironfromupper pheric composition Degasation of of itscomposition,andchangeatmos earh corebasedondifferenthypothesis • • Release oftoxic gases Atmospheric compositionchange results inIceage • • • • • • • • • Consequences: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Earth’s coreand Supervolcano CO2 willbeinatmosphere If volcanos willstopinthefuture,no climate New configuration ofcontinentsaffect Snow ballEarth Ice age with 55CmediumT. New stablestateofatmosphere Global warming (PETM,Venus) sound, debris,piroclasticflows Effects ofexplosion:tsunami, breathing Dust intheairisdangerousfor H2S Climate affectinggases:CO2, Poisonous gases,acidicrains Volcanic winter beneath ofcraton Verneshot deep pocket Explosion ofoverheated water in km deeppocket, Explosion ofnatural toluolin100 Kimberlite pipeexplosion New hotspot(Bolivia) Rift eruption,floodbasaltevent Known supervolcanos (20) Large worldwidetsunami Poisonous microorganisms Anxious event cooling orheating. resulting onfirestroms,global (Ryskin 2003), Degasation -SH4,CO2,CH4 Atmosphere Plate tectonics core Unknown processesintheEarth byonancy continent becauseofchange Large vertical movement ofa Ocean riftzone crack magnetic field more often earthquake Worldwide Earth’s core Oceans Earth (disturbanceof –gasexplosionfrom H2, CO2, ruslink like onNioslake, link O2, H20from - - • • • • • link during Greatextinction( destroyed ozonlayerinthepast, Halogen producingbacteriamay here. horizontal genetransferplayrole Red tide-toxicmarinebacteria, specie Neanderthals) (like Homosapiencewerefor • • • • • • • Toxic bacteria Another typeofintelligent Another type ofhumans CO2 depletioninthefuture Oxygen catastropheinthepast Anti-Gaya theory • Food decline • Dangerouspredator • Natural greengoo (mosquitoes) • Dangerouscarrier • Superpest, tinction ofspecies • Fungiareknowntocauseex • Pandemic (flu,AIDS, fungi) Competitors Destruction ofecologicalniche Oxygen productioncollapse lapse disorder) Food chaincollapse(Beecol Ecological collapse for existence Ecosystem needsmany species Biosphere ) Biodiversity Ecosystem evolves to Organisms Pandemics extinction loss russian - - years •Mostspeciesextinctin3-6million competitors adverse circumstances

below criticalthreshold resources exhaus Change ofhabitat • Evolution • • • • • specie andresult fall belowthreshold result inextinction,ifnumerosity will Low numerosity andbadluckmay ago andrapid populationgrowth cally becauseofbottleneck70000 Human beingarevery similargeneti

tion andpopula Species level Changing environment and The confluenceofasetmany something else • Newtraits appear alleles distribution • Evolutionary pressurechange Genetic factors Overpopulation Dangerous allelesdissemination tion Genetic driftanderrorsaccumula Over specializationandthansud den changeoftheenvironment specie numerosity diversity within Fluctuation ofthe “Normal” species Lost ofgenetic Evolving into tion collapse resulting in ing fragility extinction ------the newecosystem

•Evoking asupervolacinc eruptions

Catastrophe couldgive advantage to •Firesinlargecoalbed • • Impact andnew Siberian trapps?) molten ironintheearthcore.(Like mantle anditcreateachannelto Iron impactorpenetrate deepin volcanic eruptions Asteroid impactresultsinmany Combined Impact and volcanos specie

Smaller historicextinc

• • • • • tions andcatastrophic • • • • • • extinction Cretaceous-Tertiary mass tinction Triassic-Jurassic massex Permian massextinction tion Late Devonian massextinc extinction Ordovician-Silurian mass SnowballEarth Toba eruption Young Drais PEMT similar species HomoFlorentines Neanderthals Extinction of extinctions examples Five great events Past

- - - methanehydrates Runaway globalwarming driven by

Artificial provoking point, link,ruslink observations returnittothestarting dark energydecay, becausehuman Reverse Zenon effectmay speedup • • • • • • • Human observa- tions speeddark • • • starts accidental • • Humans helpto global warming (like in lythosphera andresultinvernshort Kymberlit provinces couldweaken Large openminesfordymondsin pressured gasbeneathcraton. deep drillingintocavity withover Arifical verneshort asresultof very Explosion ofnukes insupervolcanos Artificial nuclearwinter posits explosions inmethanehydrates de Artificial global warming by nuclear Stevenson probetotheEarthcore Asteroid deflectiontoEarth arsenic etc) Waste managementcollapse(CO2, Regeneration ability collapse Food chainscollapse • • • remote habitats. Byintroducingnewanimalsin mals

supervolcanos energy break Infarms,by mixingmany ani Small impact catastrophes nuclear war Nuclear explosions Stevenson probes Deep drilling evolve new of natural Mirny) Climate: affected Artificial Ecology Human viruses - - -

the endofsuchperiod. Earth history, andsowecouldbein during improbablystableperiodsin Humansweremorelikely toappear covich). tional selectioneffects(Bostrom,Cir of pastextinctionsbecauseobserva- We couldunderestimateprobabilities pressure andability to shadow environment becauseofanthropic We couldunderestimatefragility of Anthropic shadow any galacticcatastrophe, Less thanonein1billionyears for Bostrom’s upperlimit ice ageissuchenvironment. changing environments, andcurrent more effective andquicklyevolve in Intelligence asuniversal adaptationis galactic catastrophes needed forformation • • on thefrequencyof of humanuniversal End ofstability Volatile periodwas rising But ourpressureonnatureisalso risks isrising Our ability toprevent mostnatural Underestimating Probability Anthropogenic fragility ofour environment prevent risks intelligence period shifts Link -