Some Implications of the 2008 Presidential Election: Three Brief Observations

126 Some Implications of the 2008 Presidential Election: Three Brief Observations By Brian J. Gaines, James H. Kuklinski, Christopher Z. Mooney

1 Jack Citrin, Donald he 2008 presidential election has been percent to 49 percent, many concluded that Philip Green, and David O. Sears. hailed as one of the most important in poll respondents must have deliberately “White Reactions to Thistory. History will judge precisely which misrepresented their vote intentions to Black Candidates: facts about the 2008 campaign and out - avoid appearing racist. Presumably, the When Does Race Matter?” Public comes were most significant. Here we pressure to lie was especially acute for De - Opinion Quarterly highlight three aspects that seem to have mocrats bothered by Bradley’s race, be - 54, 1 (1990): 74-96. cause the party-identification question important policy implications for the na - 2 Gregory S. Parks, tion and for Illinois. These are: (1) the deci - came before the vote-intention question on “Implicit (Uncon - sive election of the nation’s first non-white that poll. Although subsequent analysis scious) Race Bias and the 2008 Elec - president; (2) the record-breaking cam - found mixed evidence on the import of 1 tion: Does Obama paign fundraising and spending, particu - race in that election, it has become folklore Stand a Chance?— larly by the victorious Obama campaign; that polling is unreliable in contests be - Parts I and II.” The Huffington Post , and (3) a surge in the amount of conven - tween candidates of different races. Would Feb .4, 2008. In his ience (early and absentee) voting. some white voters in 2008 tell pollsters writing, Parks refers they intended to vote for Obama, while to Jeffrey Race and the Obama Victory Rachlinski, a knowing that in the privacy of the voting Cornell University booth they would do no such thing? Law Professor, as his collaborator . Illinois U.S. Senator Barack Obama’s entry into the contest for the 2008 Democratic Buttressing this possibility was an accu - 3 Donald R. Kinder presidential nomination provided scholars, mulation of academic research purport - and David O. Sears. “Prejudice and political pundits, and the nation’s voters edly showing persistent racial bias against Politics: Symbolic the opportunity to answer a question that black people, especially among the white Racism versus had long been on the minds of many: working class. Proponents of the “implicit Racial Threats to the Good Life.” Could an African American man win his racial bias” thesis argue that 70-90 percent Journal of party’s presidential nomination, let alone of whites harbor anti-black/pro-white Personality and Social Psychology win the general election? Another black biases. They argue that whites hold these 40, 3 (1981): 414- politician from Illinois, Jesse Jackson, biases unconsciously; but with the right 431. made serious runs at the presidency in tests, it can be shown that most whites 1984 and 1988, but his challenges were associate white with things pleasant, and never as successful as Obama’s, at least ac - black with those unpleasant. This led two cording to various polls. scholars to declare, on a blog post, that “Obama has a serious uphill battle on his 2 Yet herein lay a problem. When one of the hands….” A complementary theory, candidates is African American, just how “symbolic racism,” views whites’ attitudes reliable are poll results? The so-called toward black people as formed early in life “Bradley effect” was first raised publicly through peer and family socialization, so after the 1982 California gubernatorial that negative reactions to black candidates election. A Los Angeles Times poll con - and black-targeted policies are visceral and 3 ducted three weeks before the election had automatic. found black Democrat Tom Bradley ahead of white (actually Armenian American) Some pundits predicted that Iowa, the first Republican George Deukmejian by about caucus state, would provide ample evi - 13 points, with about 19 percent still unde - dence of their wisdom about race and the 127 cided. When Bradley eventually lost 48 selection of a Democrat nominee in 2008, The Illinois Report 2009

as Iowans would throw their support these and other differences between the overwhelmingly to the front-running candidates, the conclusion that white vot - white candidates, Hillary Clinton and John ers could prefer Clinton to Obama only if Edwards, notwithstanding polls showing a they were racist was patently premature. slight Obama lead. In fact, Obama won more caucus votes than any other Demo - The presidential election is over. Not only cratic candidate. did Barack Obama win the Democratic nomination, he easily won the presidency. 4 See Michael Sokolove,“The When people vote in caucuses, they ex - And as it turned out, he fared very well in Transformation of press their preferences in the presence of many white working-class communities. Levittown,” The New York Times Nov . 8, others. Perhaps, therefore, caucus voting Levittown, Pa., for example, is working 2008. dampens racially-driven voting in a way class and 96 percent white, yet voters there that secret-ballot events such as primary backed the African American Democrat and general elections do not. This even ap - strongly in November. Obama took about peared to be the case five days later, when 62 percent of the vote in the four munici - Putting aside Clinton beat Obama in New Hampshire’s palities into which Levittown falls and, in primary, despite the fact that polls had the process, garnered more votes there Obama’s 4 appeal as a shown Obama well ahead. The “Bradley than John Kerry did four years earlier. candidate, his effect” was on everyone’s lips. Ultimately, although Obama fared substantially better So what lessons can be drawn about race, unprecedented in caucuses than in primaries, he did not racial attitudes, and voting in light of the fundraising systematically under-perform relative to 2008 presidential primary and general success was polls in the post-New Hampshire primar - elections? Here, we recommend caution. largely due to ies. In the end, he won about half of the Consider that the election easily could his campaign’s primaries, and not only those in states have played out differently. Suppose, for targeting of where black voters constituted a large example, that the Democratic Party’s small donors, share of the Democratic primary electorate super-delegates had not flocked to Obama especially over as quickly as they did. With Clinton’s later the Internet. Nevertheless, exit polls showed a recur - primary victories in key states like Ohio ring pattern of white working-class people and Pennsylvania, she might well have re - expressing more support for Clinton than gained momentum and won the nomina - Obama. Some pundits saw this as proof of tion. What conclusion about the role of racial prejudice, but there were surely al - race might one then be tempted to make? ternative explanations. While some Pundits might well have castigated as ridiculed the notion of Wellesley- and Yale- racist those working-class whites who, educated Clinton fostering genuine affect when faced with a choice between Obama among blue-collar types, her competitor, in and McCain, chose the former. addition to being (half) black was a Har - vard-educated former law professor. In Or suppose that the financial crisis and mid-campaign, Obama was caught on tape stock market drop had not occurred just describing rural Pennsylvanians to a San weeks before the election. Before the finan - Francisco audience as “bitter” people who cial turmoil began, polls indicated an elec - “cling” to guns and religion. While tion too close to call. If McCain had won, Obama’s and Clinton’s Senate voting would pundits be ascribing Obama’s loss records were strikingly similar, their cam - to the racial bias of working-class whites? paign promises and rhetoric were not identical, and experts disagreed about Is it reasonable to assume that Obama which one stood a better chance of defeat - faced a steeper climb because he was ing the Republican nominee. Clinton was African American? Perhaps, but his race 128 the far better-known political entity. Given was surely an advantage in mobilizing Institute of Government & Public Affairs

black voters, and it also was probably a • Rerun the election with everything the factor in persuading some moderates and same except Obama’s mien. Research independents, eager for a historic out - has demonstrated that whites respond come, to prefer him. John Kennedy faced a differently to hypothetical black candi - similar situation in his 1960 race against dates as a function of their facial fea - 7 Richard Nixon. Throughout the campaign, tures. Would the same outcome have pundits continually raised his Catholic accrued if Obama’s mien more closely background as an obstacle that could cause resembled, say, that of John Lewis? 5 Unfortunately, the his undoing. Had Kennedy not eked out a same cannot be win, thanks in good part to the Chicago We broach these impossible research de - said about Jews and Mormons. machine’s delivery of needed votes, the signs only because they illustrate the diffi - bias against Catholic candidates would culty of making inferences from a single 6 See, e.g. Adam have been the key storyline. But he won, presidential election in which the outcome Nossiter.“For South, A Waning and discussion of his religion faded. Today, depended on a multitude of factors inter - Hold on National those born after 1960 cannot fathom the acting in complex ways. Politics.” New York idea that a Catholic would have to over - Times Nov . 10, 5 2008. come religious biases. For the first time in its history, the United States has elected an African American pres - 7 Nayda Terkildsen. “When White To be clear: we are not suggesting that all ident. This historical achievement will be Voters Evaluation votes in the 2008 presidential election were discussed and debated for years to come. Black Candidates: free of racial bias. But how much bias was However, the next four years might deter - The Processing Implications of there? The question is extremely difficult mine the role of race in American politics Candidate Skin to answer reliably. Some pessimists, seek - and elections to a greater extent than the Color, Prejudice, and Self-Monitor - ing to snatch defeat from the jaws of vic - 2008 election. Many will be keenly gauging ing.” American tory, have rushed to highlight any hint that presidential approval, eager to see if Obama Journal of Political some whites who might otherwise have enjoys a typical “honeymoon” in which for - Science 37, 3 (1993): 1032-1053. backed the Democrats abandoned Obama. mer (and future) critics give him the benefit Scouring maps in search of counties where of the doubt, and refrain from telling poll - Obama fared less well against McCain sters that they disapprove of his job per - than John Kerry did against George W. formance. If Obama succeeds in re-establish- Bush in 2004 or zeroing in on select demo - ing the nation’s economic health, racial bi - graphic groups in exit polls (e.g. young ases, to the extent that they persist, will working-class white males) is of limited probably fade. If, on the other hand, deep value. Such gaps can be explained in myr - problems remain in 2012, and whites openly iad ways, even though reporters have no express their discontent in racial terms, we trouble finding political analysts for whom will know that 2008 was not, from a purely 6 race is the only possible explanation. racial perspective, all good news.

Assuming that some people will always Putting aside policy success and failure, provide the socially correct answer to sur - Mr. Obama now faces a question the an - vey questions about race, the only fool - swer to which could strongly shape the fu - proof ways to determine the extent of such ture place of race in American politics. For bias are experiments along the lines of: decades, African Americans had no choice but to distinguish themselves politically • Rerun the election with everything from white Americans. After all, until the identical except Obama’s race. Of passage of the Voting Rights Act little more course, this counterfactual requires than 40 years ago, they had no guarantee making some seemingly problematic as - that they would be able to vote, particu - sumptions, such as Oprah Winfrey’s ac - larly in the South. African Americans have tive support of a “white Obama.” long held a unique status requiring them 129 The Illinois Report 2009

to seek a common and readily distinguish - fered. On the other hand, John McCain’s able identity. campaign accepted public funding, and its associated voluntary limits, and he was 8 This identity has paid considerable divi - outspent by Obama by almost 2-to-1. dends, but it has also come at a cost: we- Future presidential campaigns will likely versus-they thinking among both black and draw three lessons from this episode. white Americans. Thinking in we- versus- First, the federal limit on spending re - they terms causes those in one category to quired of participants in the public financ - 8 See the nonparti - san, not-for-profit view those in the other more negatively ing program is too low to win future web site, Open than they otherwise would. Perceptions campaigns, even though it is indexed for Secrets.org, for detailed informa - often dominate facts in politics, and population increases and inflation. Sec - tion on campaign Obama’s rhetoric will be the single most im - ond, accordingly, it is political suicide to finance for these portant influence on Americans’ percep - accept spending limits when one’s oppo - and other cam - paigns federal tions. As president, will he downplay the nent does not. Third, the manner in which offices in 2008. black-white thinking that has pervaded Obama raised his money will likely be - American society, as he seemed to do during come a model for future campaigns. 9 Sidney Verba, Kay Lehman the election season, or will he find reason to Schlozman, and continue it? There are compelling argu - Consider this last point first. Putting aside Henry E. Brady. 1995. Voice and ments for pursuing each of the alternatives, Obama’s appeal as a candidate, his un - Equality . and each will require a different set of trade - precedented fundraising success was Cambridge, MA: offs. This choice will be one of the most fun - largely due to his campaign’s targeting of Harvard University Press. damental of Barack Obama’s presidency. small donors, especially over the Internet. Campaign Finance Policy – Small Donations This tactic may have been making a virtue and Record-Breaking Spending of necessity, because the Hillary Clinton campaign locked up many of the party’s typical sources of large contributions early The 2008 election likely changed the cam - in the Democratic primary season. paign finance landscape forever. Although Obama’s campaign targeted small contrib - its biggest effects were at the presidential utors, those who might donate $10, $50, or level, this election also had important pol - even $100. The strategy might seem hope - icy lessons for campaign finance in Illinois. less because it requires attracting so many more donors to yield the same amount of Worries about the amount of campaign cash. But, whether by design or fortune, spending are as old as the Republic, but the Obama campaign found that there they have been voiced with more fre - were positive benefits to gathering money quency since the 1976 U.S. Supreme Court this way. First, as political operatives and decision Buckley v. Valeo banned involun - political scientists have long understood, a tary government spending limits. In re - political contribution represents more than sponse, some states and the federal just the money involved; it represents a government have tried to entice candi - commitment of support far stronger than dates into voluntarily limiting their simply a vote for a candidate. Most spending by offering public funding, with Americans rarely contribute to a political varying success. campaign, so pulling out the checkbook or clicking on the “contribute now” button is In 2008, Barack Obama became the first el - a significant act. It not only greatly in - igible presidential candidate to refuse creases the chance that the contributor will public funding in the general election indeed vote for that candidate, it also in - since the federal program began in the creases the chances that he or she will 1970s. His campaign found that it could show support in other ways, such as pros - 130 raise more money than the program of - elytizing among friends and co-workers, Institute of Government & Public Affairs

putting a campaign sign in the yard, or almost $140,000 through the website, Act - 9 walking precincts. Blue.com.

To a campaign’s treasurer, a small contribu - What campaign finance policy lessons can tion foreshadows another more important we take away from the 2008 presidential act of political support, a second contribu - campaign, especially those that might be tion. Someone whose first contribution is at relevant to Illinois? The most obvious les - the legal limit for a presidential campaign – son is that the old system of public funding 10 For more details $4,600 in 2008 – cannot legally contribute for presidential campaigns is now dead. about the federal 10 any additional “hard” money. But some - The program was premised on the notion public campaign financing program, one who gives only $100 can be solicited by that the public funding offer was too large see the Federal the campaign again and again throughout for candidates to turn down, and thus they Election the election season. Thus, while Obama would accept its spending limits. Obama’s Commission’s web site: www.fec.gov. fared relatively poorly in fundraising early fundraising prowess has belied this as - in both the primary and general election sumption, showing candidates that they no 11 http://www.cfinst .org/pr/prRelease.a races, he surged as the campaigns pro - longer need federal funds and that they can spx?ReleaseID=205. gressed. The effectiveness of the Obama no longer afford to accept arbitrary spend - campaign at tapping and re-tapping small ing limits. So without a large increase in 12 States with public funding for various donors was underestimated by even the spending limits and funding, major party offices include: most experienced observers throughout the presidential candidates likely will no longer Arizona, campaign. For example, the Campaign Fi - participate in public funding, at least in the Connecticut, Maine, Minnesota, nance Institute issued a press release on general election. The few states with similar New Mexico, North September 25, 2008, headlined, “After programs have also found that when fund - Carolina, and Holding Financial Advantage in the Pri - ing levels and spending limits are too low, Vermont. 12 maries, Obama Likely to Achieve Only Par - few candidates participate. 11 ity with McCain in General Election.” In the end, the Obama campaign got a higher So what is next for public campaign fund - proportion of its campaign contributions in ing at the presidential level and what small amounts than did the McCain cam - might the events of 2008 suggest for cam - paign, a reversal of the historical partisan paign finance reform in Illinois? This de - pattern for the Democrat and Republican in pends on the campaign financing goals presidential elections. that the public and policymakers wish to pursue. If the original goal of public cam - Obama was not the first candidate to tar - paign financing was to limit spending con - get small donors through the Internet. stitutionally, then we should raise Howard Dean pioneered that approach in spending limits and public funding to a 2004. But Obama’s campaign applied and level that future campaigns will consider optimized the Dean model like no one else, adequate. No candidate will limit cam - developing a campaign finance juggernaut paign spending voluntarily if he or she unlike anything ever before seen in Ameri - thinks it will seriously and unnecessarily can politics. Obama realized, as his oppo - disadvantage him or her in the election. nents did not, that Dean’s collapse in the Thus, what this means is that reducing 2004 Democratic primary did not mean overall campaign spending significantly is that Internet electioneering and fundrais - probably impossible in the face of current ing did not work. Others already are fol - Supreme Court interpretation of the First lowing the Obama lead. For example, Amendment. Daniel Bliss, a candidate for a seat in the Illinois House from the 17th District, But another perhaps more fundamental gained fleeting national attention in 2008 goal underlying public campaign financ - for his success with this technique, raising ing was to limit the excessive influence of 131 The Illinois Report 2009

special interests on elected officials. The ar - mize participation, such publicity might gument is that the greater the proportion not be needed. On the other hand, Ohio of a candidate’s campaign resources that and Minnesota have had low participation comes from a given source, such as an in - rates with their programs, in the range of 14 terest group, the more susceptible he or 1-2 percent. she may be to the blandishments of that source once in office. The Obama cam - There are two potential downsides for giv - paign suggests a policy approach to ing tax incentives to encourage political 13 The other four states with political achieve this goal that does not involve di - contributions. First, they represent a tax contribution tax rect public funding – tax incentives to en - expenditure, the size of which depends on: incentive programs are Arkansas, courage small contributions. When small whether a tax credit or deduction is used; Oklahoma, Hawaii, contributors fill a larger portion of a candi - the size of the allowable credit or deduc - and Oregon. See: date’s campaign coffers, large donors are tion; and the rate of taxpayer participation “Campaign Finance: Current less likely to have undue influence. Today, in the program. Table 1 shows the pro - Structure,” Hoover seven states (including Michigan, Ohio, gram’s tax expenditures under various sce - Institution Public and Minnesota) encourage small contribu - narios. A tax credit certainly would yield Policy Inquiry (http://www. tions with rebates or tax credits for politi - larger tax expenditure than a deduction, 13 campaignfinance cal contributions of up to $50. not only because of its greater direct cost site.org/structure/ states1.html). but also because it would probably gener - A tax credit or deduction for small cam - ate more participation due to its larger and 14 Robert G. Boa - paign contributions fits with Illinois’ gen - clearer impact on a taxpayers’ bottom line. tright, Donald P. Green, and Michael eral free-market approach to campaign And while the state must be prepared to J. Malbin.“Does finance regulation. Rather than setting con - shoulder 100 percent participation, in prac - Publicizing a Tax tribution limits, as the federal government tice it will probably be much less; advo - Credit for Political Contributions In - and almost all other states do, or establish - cates for such a reform hope for 10 percent 15 crease Its Use?” ing a public financing program, Illinois re - participation. A scenario for Illinois like American Politics Research 34, 5 quires campaigns to report the sources and that in practice in other states with the (2006): 563-582. amounts of their contributions. The State most generous policies and participation Board of Elections then presents this infor - would be a $50 tax credit and a taxpayer 15 Michael J. Malbin. “Rethinking the mation to the public on their easy-to-use participation rate of 2 percent. Given that Campaign Finance website, and voters are entrusted to make there are approximately 6.5 million indi - Agenda.” Forum . 6, decisions based on that information. While vidual personal income taxpayers in Illi - 1 (2008): 3. the state has virtually no limits on cam - nois, such a scenario would cost the state paign contributions, it has perhaps the best $6.5 million, or about $1 per taxpayer. and most transparent system of reporting in the nation. A tax incentive likewise em - The second downside of such a tax incen - powers voters by allowing them to target tive is a potential increase in campaign their resources to their favored candidates. spending. In the Obama campaign, small donors, the effective use of technology and A tax incentive would cost the state very a charismatic candidate helped shatter little to implement because it could be in - campaign-spending records. Whether this corporated into the current personal in - is a positive development is a matter of de - come tax return simply by placing a line bate. Campaign spending that encourages for the credit or deduction on the IL-1040 citizen engagement and education may be form. Taxpayer participation might be en - a good thing, but campaign spending that couraged through a state publicity pro - yields simply more inane or negative TV gram, as has been done for the Bright Start ads, junk mail, and annoying telephone college savings plan and the state’s organ calls may not be. Recall that a primary goal donation program. But because it would of early campaign finance regulation was 132 be in the interest of the campaigns to maxi - the reduction of campaign spending. Institute of Government & Public Affairs

Table 1 The Tax Expenditure of Various Reform Scenarios

Ultimately, the tradeoff between encourag - Credit/Deduction Amount ing more participation in the electoral $ 25.00 $ 50.00 $ 200.00 process and limiting the cost of running for office is one for policymakers to consider. Credit Participation Rate Voting Early (If Not Often) 2% $ 3.25 $ 6.50 $ 26.00 10% $ 16.25 $ 32.50 $ 130.00 25% $ 40.63 $ 81.25 $ 325.00 Recent decades have seen increasing use of non-traditional, “convenience” voting op - Deduction tions, mainly no-excuse absentee voting (by Participation Rate 2% $ 0.098 $ 0.195 $ 0.780 mail) or early voting (by secret ballot at offi - 10% $ 0.488 $ 0.975 $ 3.900 cial polling stations). Without complete offi - 25% $ 1.219 $ 2.438 $ 9.750 cial returns, we cannot yet report the exact NOTE: These calculations are based on a 3 percent state tax rate and 6.5 million levels of convenience voting nationwide in state tax filers in Illinois. Figures are in millions of dollars. 2008. But anecdotal evidence and incom - plete returns suggest that non-traditional voting was rampant, largely because both 16 Jessica Leval and campaigns mobilized voters to take advan - out.” News media coverage of early voting Jennifer Marsico. tage of the option in the 36 states that now that suggests a disproportionate presence “The Rise of 16 allow it. In greater Cook County, for in - of one candidate’s supporters in the ranks ‘Convenience Voting’” The stance, about 30,000 early ballots were cast of the impatient electorate may become a American , Thursday, in the 2006 primary, the first time the state tool in the battle for the undecided. From Oct. 16, 2008. permitted all voters to cast their ballots in Accessed Nov. 16 at the voter’s point of view, the convenience http://www. advance of Election Day. In the 2006 general of being able to vote over a multi-week american.com/ election, that rate nearly doubled, to just window, instead of on a single day, is at archive/2008/ october-10-08/the- under 58,000 early ballots. In the 2008 pri - least partially offset by the risk of choosing rise-of-2018 mary, the total more than doubled again, to early, and then experiencing regret upon convenience- almost 133,000. And for the 2008 general later learning something new about some voting2019 . election, the count soared to almost 500,000 candidate or ballot measure. Given the 17 Report of Chicago 17 early votes. States such as California, length and depth of ballots, all of these Board of Election Iowa, and Nevada, all of which established Commissioners, comments apply to multiple races and accessed Nov. 16, convenient voting many years ago, experi - multiple sets of competitors. A candidate 2008 at http:// enced gradual increases in the use of these vying for a local office might need to www.swschicago. org/EarlyVoting - methods. Illinois, by contrast, has leaped tweak tactics if top-of-the-ballot cam - For2008Election_ straight to a fairly high level of convenience paigns are driving hordes of voters to the English.pdf . voting, thanks in no small part to heavy polls days ahead of the deadline. mobilization by the Obama campaign. From a nonpartisan, disinterested point of What are the implications of so much vot - view, what are the pros and cons of ex - ing taking place before the Tuesday after tending the legal period for voting across the first Monday in November? Obviously, multiple days? We see several implica - where early voting is both possible and tions: some costs, some benefits, and some popular, candidates must adjust their cam - arguments that cut both ways. paign strategies. Late-breaking news and late advertising blitzes cannot affect those 1. Boosting Turnout. The manifest goal of voters whose choices already have been convenience voting is to boost turnout. In - made by the closing days of the campaign creasing participation is usually taken as period. The get-out-the-vote operation an unambiguous good, although some should, likewise, be calibrated to areas may question whether voting by those where the vote has not already “gotten who seem to lack information about the 133 The Illinois Report 2009

candidates or contests is necessarily desir - marginally interested or motivated eligi - able. The latter argument has been of - ble voters who would otherwise stay fered, for instance, as a justification for home will turn out. An indirect benefit 18 removing straight-party ballot options. could follow. If polling stations are less Nonetheless, Americans face high costs of likely to be overwhelmed by demand on voting, as compared to voters in other the official Election Day, there is less likeli - democracies: federal elections fall on hood of some discouraged potential vot -

18 See, e.g., floor de - weekdays; the onus to register falls on ers turning away from long lines at bate in the Illinois voters; and ballots are long and often dis - precinct polling stations, forgoing their Senate, Jan. 7, tressingly complicated. The direct benefit voting rights. It even might be true that 2007, accessed Nov. 16, 2008 at of making voting easier should be that logistical mistakes in the processing of http://www.ilga. votes and errors made by harried voters, gov/senate/ rushing because they are aware of long transcripts/strans 89/ST010797.pdf. lines behind them, are less likely when all Arguments made voting need not take place on a single day. by Republicans in Illinois were made by Democrats in Georgia as they eliminated straight- party voting in 1993.

Brian J. Gaines is an associate pro - fessor in the Department of Politi - cal Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and is a member of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. His James H. Kuklinski is Matthew T. research interests are elections, po - McClure Professor of Political Sci - litical behavior, and political insti - ence at the University of Illinois at tutions. He is currently researching Urbana-Champaign and is a mem - the effects of the uncontested Illi - ber the Institute of Government nois legislative races on turnout, and Public Affairs. His primary inter - the seat shares of the parties, and ests include racial attitudes, the outcomes of statewide races over quality of citizen decision-making, the period 1982-2002. Gaines also the relationship between public has analyzed the empirics and the - opinion and legislative policy-mak - ory of voting on The Weakest ing, and the use of experiments in Link game show. Professor Gaines’s social scientific research. Professor most recent publications include a Kuklinski’s IGPA activities include collaboration with colleague holding a major assembly on elec - Wendy Tam Cho,“Breaking the toral systems. Funded by the Joyce (Benford) Law: Statistical Fraud De - Foundation, the assembly deliber - tection and Campaign Finance” ated a possible return to cumulative published in The American Statisti - voting in Illinois house elections. cian and a collaboration with his Kuklinski has also appeared on na - IGPA colleague Jim Kuklinski and tional radio and television broad - others,“Interpreting Iraq: Partisan - casts to discuss race and affirmative ship and the Meaning of Facts” action. He testified before Congress published in the Journal of Politics . on the same topics.

134 Institute of Government & Public Affairs

2. Preserving the Secret Ballot. Despite myr - ducing voting by mail. It is probably iad small distinctions across states in unavoidable that states provide some how convenience voting is imple - mechanism to permit some voters, for mented, there are two main alternatives. instance those too frail to travel, to par - Absentee voting is normally voting by ticipate without visiting an official vot - mail. Early voting is normally voting in ing station. But the goal of allowing a private booth, more or less as one no-excuse-required convenient options would vote on Election Day, only days for all voters can be met without sacri - The goal of in advance. There is a compelling justifi - ficing secrecy. The marginal gain in con - cation for preferring early to absentee venience from absentee voting is offset allowing no- voting. The secret ballot became a hall - by a marginal increase in uncertainty excuse-require mark of democracy in the U.S. and else - about vote processing unavoidably in - d convenient where in the 19th Century, as a means of troduced by reliance on mail service. options for all reducing the possibilities for vote buy - More importantly, states should not voters can be ing, intimidation of voters, and other blithely give up control over the preser - met without fraud. Perhaps unintentionally, many vation of secret voting. sacrificing states have undone this reform by intro - secrecy. 3. Location, Location, Location. Although we think the case for early voting instead of by-mail voting is compelling, the former does pose additional logistical chal - lenges, and possibly avenues for abuse at the margin. Soon after Illinois adopted early voting, the system was challenged in federal court as a viola - tion of equal protection guarantees. The basis of the complaint in Gustafson v. Illi - nois State Board of Elections , No. 06 C 1159 (N.D. Ill. Sept. 30, 2007) was that early voting stations were not equally Christopher Z. Mooney is a profes - accessible to voters and were politically sor in the Department of Political situated so as to favor one candidate Science at the University of Illinois over another in the Democratic primary. at Springfield. From 1999-2004, he The latter claim could not be proven, was the director of the Institute of Legislative Studies at UIS, and he and the court found nothing unconstitu - now holds a permanent appoint - tional in uneven provision of early vot - ment in the IGPA. In 2000, he ing opportunities. Indeed, it is probably founded the scholarly journal State impossible for a government to make Politics and Policy Quarterly serving as its editor until 2007. Mooney voting equally easy for rural and urban joined the Institute of Government residents, except by abandoning the se - and Public Affairs in 2004. The cret ballot and using a pure vote-by- main focus of Dr. Mooney’s re - mail system. Moreover, the potential for search involves the study of state manipulation of results by strategic politics and policy in the United States. He is currently working on a placement of polling stations is not long-term project assessing the unique to early voting. However, the impacts of state legislative term danger is more acute because so many limits. Election Day polling places are at schools and churches, places that cannot tolerate the disruption of being open for weeks rather than one day. 135 The Illinois Report 2009

4. Less learning. Voters who deny them - nore the wording on their ballots for selves some portion of the campaign pe - this one item only. Disputes over the riod to learn about issues are likely to be wording of referenda are not the only slightly less well informed when they reason why states or counties might cast their ballots. This concern might sometimes wish to make very late seem ludicrous given the length of changes to ballots: candidates can die or American campaigns as compared to withdraw, and clerks can discover po - those in most democracies, where cam - tentially confusing formats or errors. An 19 Robert Putnam. 2000. Bowling paign seasons are counted in weeks, unavoidable cost of stretching out the Alone . NY: Simon rather than months. But because Ameri - legal vote-casting period is that if all and Schuster. can ballots contain so many choices, the voters in each jurisdiction are to use concern about voters’ knowledge of the identical ballots, the window for mak - alternatives from which they are choos - ing late changes shrinks. An ing probably applies most strenuously unavoidable to offices other than the presidency. To 6. Voting Alone. Some lament that early cost of cite just one example from 2008, about voting destroys the communal experi - stretching out 24 percent of early voters in Adams ence of participating in democracy’s ul - the legal vote- County abstained from voting on the timate ritual. The actual process of casting period Constitutional Convention item. By con - choosing candidates is, in modern is that if all trast, about 15 percent of Election Day democracies, meant to be undertaken voters in each voters skipped that contest. One cannot secretly. But the experience of being part jurisdiction are be certain that the early voters are not of a crowd fulfilling the duty to vote is to use identical people who would have ignored the sometimes said to be valuable by itself. Con-Con choice even had they voted on Many social scientists fret that modern ballots, the Election Day. Still, the difference is at society is too atomistic, and that people window for least circumstantial evidence that early are less and less connected to their making late voters are prone to more partial absten - neighbors, so that “social capital” is de - 19 changes tion, perhaps because less salient con - teriorating. From that point of view, shrinks. tests do not catch their attention in the convenience voting is a needless assault campaign season that they voluntarily on the collective aspect of democratic cut short. Notwithstanding our first expression, and one more push towards point above, turnout is not synonymous anomie. with voting, and increased rates of de - liberate under-voting could be a corre - At present, it seems extremely unlikely late of early voting. that Illinois or any other state will soon re - verse the liberalization of convenient early 5. Impossibility of Late Changes. The 2008 voting options. It remains to be seen election in Illinois demonstrated an - whether this reduction in the cost of voting other disadvantage of permitting early will spur greater turnout. The unofficial voting, namely that the last date by verdict on 2008 is that forecasts of record- which changes can be made in a ballot breaking turnout based on record-breaking must be earlier. When a circuit court early voting assumed too much. Many of judge found the wording of the Consti - those early voters seem to have been peo - tutional Convention referendum to be ple who would have voted anyway. The biased just a month before Election Day, good news is that there is little evidence, as it was deemed too late to print new bal - yet, of any systematic abuse. Just the same, lots. Accordingly, the less-than-ideal policymakers should be attentive to the remedy was for poll workers to make special logistical challenges associated available a flier with the corrected with stretching “Election Day” over a 136 wording, and to instruct voters to ig - multi-week window.