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Some Implications of the 2008 Presidential Election: Three Brief Observations 126 Some Implications of the 2008 Presidential Election: Three Brief Observations By Brian J. Gaines, James H. Kuklinski, Christopher Z. Mooney 1 Jack Citrin, Donald he 2008 presidential election has been percent to 49 percent, many concluded that Philip Green, and David O. Sears. hailed as one of the most important in poll respondents must have deliberately “White Reactions to Thistory. History will judge precisely which misrepresented their vote intentions to Black Candidates: facts about the 2008 campaign and out - avoid appearing racist. Presumably, the When Does Race Matter?” Public comes were most significant. Here we pressure to lie was especially acute for De - Opinion Quarterly highlight three aspects that seem to have mocrats bothered by Bradley’s race, be - 54, 1 (1990): 74-96. cause the party-identification question important policy implications for the na - 2 Gregory S. Parks, tion and for Illinois. These are: (1) the deci - came before the vote-intention question on “Implicit (Uncon - sive election of the nation’s first non-white that poll. Although subsequent analysis scious) Race Bias and the 2008 Elec - president; (2) the record-breaking cam - found mixed evidence on the import of 1 tion: Does Obama paign fundraising and spending, particu - race in that election, it has become folklore Stand a Chance?— larly by the victorious Obama campaign; that polling is unreliable in contests be - Parts I and II.” The Huffington Post , and (3) a surge in the amount of conven - tween candidates of different races. Would Feb .4, 2008. In his ience (early and absentee) voting. some white voters in 2008 tell pollsters writing, Parks refers they intended to vote for Obama, while to Jeffrey Race and the Obama Victory Rachlinski, a knowing that in the privacy of the voting Cornell University booth they would do no such thing? Law Professor, as his collaborator . Illinois U.S. Senator Barack Obama’s entry into the contest for the 2008 Democratic Buttressing this possibility was an accu - 3 Donald R. Kinder presidential nomination provided scholars, mulation of academic research purport - and David O. Sears. “Prejudice and political pundits, and the nation’s voters edly showing persistent racial bias against Politics: Symbolic the opportunity to answer a question that black people, especially among the white Racism versus had long been on the minds of many: working class. Proponents of the “implicit Racial Threats to the Good Life.” Could an African American man win his racial bias” thesis argue that 70-90 percent Journal of party’s presidential nomination, let alone of whites harbor anti-black/pro-white Personality and Social Psychology win the general election? Another black biases. They argue that whites hold these 40, 3 (1981): 414- politician from Illinois, Jesse Jackson, biases unconsciously; but with the right 431. made serious runs at the presidency in tests, it can be shown that most whites 1984 and 1988, but his challenges were associate white with things pleasant, and never as successful as Obama’s, at least ac - black with those unpleasant. This led two cording to various polls. scholars to declare, on a blog post, that “Obama has a serious uphill battle on his 2 Yet herein lay a problem. When one of the hands….” A complementary theory, candidates is African American, just how “symbolic racism,” views whites’ attitudes reliable are poll results? The so-called toward black people as formed early in life “Bradley effect” was first raised publicly through peer and family socialization, so after the 1982 California gubernatorial that negative reactions to black candidates election. A Los Angeles Times poll con - and black-targeted policies are visceral and 3 ducted three weeks before the election had automatic. found black Democrat Tom Bradley ahead of white (actually Armenian American) Some pundits predicted that Iowa, the first Republican George Deukmejian by about caucus state, would provide ample evi - 13 points, with about 19 percent still unde - dence of their wisdom about race and the 127 cided. When Bradley eventually lost 48 selection of a Democrat nominee in 2008, The Illinois Report 2009 as Iowans would throw their support these and other differences between the overwhelmingly to the front-running candidates, the conclusion that white vot - white candidates, Hillary Clinton and John ers could prefer Clinton to Obama only if Edwards, notwithstanding polls showing a they were racist was patently premature. slight Obama lead. In fact, Obama won more caucus votes than any other Demo - The presidential election is over. Not only cratic candidate. did Barack Obama win the Democratic nomination, he easily won the presidency. 4 See Michael Sokolove,“The When people vote in caucuses, they ex - And as it turned out, he fared very well in Transformation of press their preferences in the presence of many white working-class communities. Levittown,” The New York Times Nov . 8, others. Perhaps, therefore, caucus voting Levittown, Pa., for example, is working 2008. dampens racially-driven voting in a way class and 96 percent white, yet voters there that secret-ballot events such as primary backed the African American Democrat and general elections do not. This even ap - strongly in November. Obama took about peared to be the case five days later, when 62 percent of the vote in the four munici - Putting aside Clinton beat Obama in New Hampshire’s palities into which Levittown falls and, in primary, despite the fact that polls had the process, garnered more votes there Obama’s 4 appeal as a shown Obama well ahead. The “Bradley than John Kerry did four years earlier. candidate, his effect” was on everyone’s lips. Ultimately, although Obama fared substantially better So what lessons can be drawn about race, unprecedented in caucuses than in primaries, he did not racial attitudes, and voting in light of the fundraising systematically under-perform relative to 2008 presidential primary and general success was polls in the post-New Hampshire primar - elections? Here, we recommend caution. largely due to ies. In the end, he won about half of the Consider that the election easily could his campaign’s primaries, and not only those in states have played out differently. Suppose, for targeting of where black voters constituted a large example, that the Democratic Party’s small donors, share of the Democratic primary electorate super-delegates had not flocked to Obama especially over as quickly as they did. With Clinton’s later the Internet. Nevertheless, exit polls showed a recur - primary victories in key states like Ohio ring pattern of white working-class people and Pennsylvania, she might well have re - expressing more support for Clinton than gained momentum and won the nomina - Obama. Some pundits saw this as proof of tion. What conclusion about the role of racial prejudice, but there were surely al - race might one then be tempted to make? ternative explanations. While some Pundits might well have castigated as ridiculed the notion of Wellesley- and Yale- racist those working-class whites who, educated Clinton fostering genuine affect when faced with a choice between Obama among blue-collar types, her competitor, in and McCain, chose the former. addition to being (half) black was a Har - vard-educated former law professor. In Or suppose that the financial crisis and mid-campaign, Obama was caught on tape stock market drop had not occurred just describing rural Pennsylvanians to a San weeks before the election. Before the finan - Francisco audience as “bitter” people who cial turmoil began, polls indicated an elec - “cling” to guns and religion. While tion too close to call. If McCain had won, Obama’s and Clinton’s Senate voting would pundits be ascribing Obama’s loss records were strikingly similar, their cam - to the racial bias of working-class whites? paign promises and rhetoric were not identical, and experts disagreed about Is it reasonable to assume that Obama which one stood a better chance of defeat - faced a steeper climb because he was ing the Republican nominee. Clinton was African American? Perhaps, but his race 128 the far better-known political entity. Given was surely an advantage in mobilizing Institute of Government & Public Affairs black voters, and it also was probably a • Rerun the election with everything the factor in persuading some moderates and same except Obama’s mien. Research independents, eager for a historic out - has demonstrated that whites respond come, to prefer him. John Kennedy faced a differently to hypothetical black candi - similar situation in his 1960 race against dates as a function of their facial fea - 7 Richard Nixon. Throughout the campaign, tures. Would the same outcome have pundits continually raised his Catholic accrued if Obama’s mien more closely background as an obstacle that could cause resembled, say, that of John Lewis? 5 Unfortunately, the his undoing. Had Kennedy not eked out a same cannot be win, thanks in good part to the Chicago We broach these impossible research de - said about Jews and Mormons. machine’s delivery of needed votes, the signs only because they illustrate the diffi - bias against Catholic candidates would culty of making inferences from a single 6 See, e.g. Adam have been the key storyline. But he won, presidential election in which the outcome Nossiter.“For South, A Waning and discussion of his religion faded. Today, depended on a multitude of factors inter - Hold on National those born after 1960 cannot fathom the acting in complex ways. Politics.” New York idea that a Catholic would have to over - Times Nov . 10, 5 2008. come religious biases. For the first time in its history, the United States has elected an African American pres - 7 Nayda Terkildsen.

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