Research & Forecast Report HOUSTON | OFFICE Q3 2019 Houston’s office market continues to see expansion in the co-working niche Lisa Bridges Director of Market Research | Houston Commentary by Taylor Wright Market Indicators Annual Quarterly Quarterly “Co-working” and, more specifically, WeWork continue to dominate Relative to prior period Change Change Forecast* the CRE news cycle. With billion-dollar annual losses, the recent withdrawal of their initial stock offering, the removal of the founder VACANCY as CEO and seemingly a different executive vacating every day, NET ABSORPTION both your average newsreader and our commercial real estate colleagues are questioning the viability of WeWork specifically and NEW INVENTORY co-working in general. After meeting with different well-known UNDER CONSTRUCTION flex space operators and talking to landlord’s who lease space to various co-working companies (not necessarily WeWork), our *Projected view is a little more positive. The concept of co-working is nothing new, but the way people and companies today are viewing their workspace occupancy has definitely changed. The total co-working footprint is miniscule in Houston’s overall office occupancy (an estimated 1.3 million square feet out of 230.7 million total square feet). We believe co-working has a place in occupancy solutions, albeit a relatively small one. Summary Statistics Houston Office Market Q3 2018 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 When discussing flex space operators with landlords, we hear Vacancy Rate 19.8% 19.9% 20.2% that they serve as a valuable building amenity. For example, in the instances where tenants face a time crunch between vacating Net Absorption 845,983 -919,041 -135,127 their previous space and when a new space will be ready, co- working space can serve as an effective stop-gap solution. When a New Inventory 52,562 1,143,267 264,433 company has to staff up quickly for a short-term project, but does not want to commit to long term space, co-working can meet those Under Construction 3,485,669 2,397,805 2,619,230 requirements. Co-working space is also an effective solution for employees who cannot justify a commute to the corporate office Class A Vacancy Rate 5 days a week. These are just three examples of how co-working CBD 22.1% 19.6% 19.4% space may be utilized. The concern and focus on WeWork may be Suburban 19.3% 21.4% 20.9% more of financial viability versus the core underlying offering. In a Asking Rents booming economy, this niche should be enjoying financial success. Per Square Foot Per Year The concern has historically been what happens to these operators in a downturn where “flex” space is the first to go. Every co- Houston Class A $35.74 $35.36 $35.07 working operator has filed bankruptcy at some point in their history. CBD Class A $46.04 $46.01 $45.64 WeWork made a huge splash entering the world market; let’s hope Suburban Class A $31.50 $31.99 $31.83 that after the splash – they float. With regards to the more traditional office market in Houston, we Share or view online at colliers.com/houston see leasing activity concentrated in “pockets.” The Central Business District Job Growth & Unemployment reported minor positive absorption again in Q3, with 18,544 square feet absorbed. (not seasonally adjusted) Q2 recorded a much healthier 229,836 square feet absorbed Downtown. UNEMPLOYMENT Suburban Office (everything outside of Downtown) posted negative absorption 8/18 8/19 for the second straight quarter with -153,671 square feet following Q2’s negative HOUSTON 4.4% 3.9% absorption of -1,148,877 square feet. The citywide vacancy has increased slightly to 20.2%, as opposed to 19.9% in Q2. Asking rental rates for all classes has TEXAS 4.0% 3.6% remained relatively unchanged. Landlords continue to offer attractive tenant U.S. 3.9% 3.8% improvement allowances and other concessions to maintain face rates. The strategy that most of the Class A landlords have embraced is to upgrade Annual # of Jobs JOB GROWTH Change Added the older Class A product in order to slow the “flight to quality” that has tenants embracing new construction and moving to the newer assets. This massive HOUSTON 2.7% 81.9K capital investment should result in better occupancy, but we believe that there will TEXAS 2.3% 292.2K be very little upward pressure on lease rates in most submarkets. The Woodlands and Sugar Land are the outliers in terms of market occupancy with vacancy U.S. 1.4% 2.1M rates in the low teens. Tenants in those markets will see slightly less aggressive positions from the landlord community, but in all markets, the tenant has the near- term leverage. CBD vs. Suburban Of the 1,672 existing office buildings in our survey, 80 buildings have 100,000 SF or more contiguous space available for lease or sublease. Citywide, 6.8 million SF CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY 25.0% HISTORICAL AVAILABLE SUBLEASE SPACE 12,000,000 20.0% 10,000,000 8,000,000 15.0% 6,000,000 4,000,000 10.0% 2,000,000 0 5.0% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 Class A Class B Houston Total 0.0% AVAILABLE SUBLEASE SPACE - 100,000 SF OR GREATER CBD Vacancy Suburban Vacancy Large Sublease Availabilities (Total available in building and/or complex) BUILDING TENANT SUBMARKET SF CLASS A OFFICE RENTS 5 Greenway Plaza Oxy Greenway Plaza 746,070 $50.00 Energy Tower II KTI Corporation (Technip) Katy Freeway 297,919 $45.00 Hess Tower Hess Corporation CBD 215,887 $40.00 Four WestLake Park BP Katy Freeway 212,626 $35.00 Noble Energy Center II Noble Energy FM 1960 204,480 $30.00 1500 Post Oak Blvd BHP Billiton Petroleum West Loop 204,417 $25.00 Twelve Greenway Plaza CPL Energy Greenway Plaza 201,554 $20.00 GreenStreet Tower Reliant Energy Retail CBD 194,768 $15.00 1100 Louisiana Enbridge CBD 179,694 $10.00 One Shell Plaza Shell Oil CBD 167,211 $5.00 Westway Plaza GE Oil & Gas West Belt 131,663 $0.00 Kinder Morgan Building EP Energy Corporation CBD 124,600 10000 Richmond Ave National Oilwell Varco Westchase 118,215 Source: CoStar CBD Rents Suburban Rents 2 Houston Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International of sublease space is listed and 3.6 million SF of the space is vacant. The largest available sublease space currently occupied by Occidental Petroleum Corporation may be withdrawn soon as their previous plans to relocate to the Energy Corridor have changed according to a statement by CFO Cedric Burgher. Available space differs from vacant space in that it includes space that is currently being marketed for lease, but may be occupied with a future availability date. Absorption & Demand Houston’s office market posted negative net absorption of 135,127 SF in the third quarter, a huge improvement from the 919,041 SF of negative net absorption posted in the second quarter. Year-to-date net absorption stands at negative 549,519 SF. Suburban Class A space recorded the largest loss, posting 213,110 SF of negative net absorption, while CBD Class A space reported the largest gain posting 76,454 SF of positive net absorption. The majority of negative absorption was caused by Southwestern Energy placing the South Tower of it’s corporate offices located in Springwoods Village in The Woodlands submarket on the market. Looking forward, our forecast shows positive absorption in the fourth quarter as tenants take possession of spaces leased earlier in the year. Rental Rates Houston’s average asking rental rate decreased over the quarter from $29.64 per SF to $29.55 per SF. The average asking rental rate for Class A space decreased over the quarter from $35.36 per SF to $35.07 per SF, and the average CBD Class A rental rate fell from $46.01 to $45.64 per SF. The Suburban average asking rental rate for Class A dropped from $31.99 to $31.83 per SF. Leasing Activity Houston’s office leasing activity decreased over the quarter from 4.2M SF to 3.3M SF. Leasing activity includes new/direct, sublet, renewals, expansions in existing buildings and pre-leasing in proposed buildings. Some of the more notable transactions are listed in the table below. Q3 2019 Select Office Lease Transactions BUILDING NAME/ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF TENANT LEASE DATE Energy Center I Katy Freeway 156,828 Kiewitt Engineering1 Jul-19 BHP Billiton Tower West Loop/Galleria 109,667 Engie1 Jul-19 4800 Fournace Place Bellaire 100,812 Houston Methodist Hospital1,3 Aug-19 BHP Petroleum West Loop/Galleria 68,139 Sumitomo Corp2 Aug-19 910 Louisiana CBD 32,000 Ontellus2 Aug-19 1New/Direct 2Sublease 3Colliers International Transaction Sales Activity Houston’s office investment sales volume decreased over the quarter from $730.9M in Q2 2019 to $274.1M in Q3 2019. The average sales price per square foot trended up from $147 to $162 per SF over the quarter. Houston’s average cap rate of 7.8% lags the average U.S. cap rate of 6.7%. AVERAGE OFFICE SALES PRICE PER SF AVERAGE OFFICE CAP RATE United States Houston United States Houston $350 8.5% $300 8.0% $250 7.5% $200 7.0% $150 6.5% $100 6.0% $50 5.5% $0 5.0% Sources: CoStar and Real Capital Analytics 3 Houston Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International Houston Office Market Summary (CBD, Suburban, & Overall) SUBLEASE NET ABSORPTION RENTAL INVENTORY DIRECT VACANCY VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%) VACANCY (SF) RATE # OF RATE RATE TOTAL AVG CLASS TOTAL (SF) (SF) (SF) Q3-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q2-2019 BLDGS.