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Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats

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Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats NORTHWEST FOREST PLAN THE FIRST 15 YEARS (1994–2008) Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats Raymond J. Davis, Katie M. Dugger, Shawne Mohoric, Louisa Evers, and William C. Aney General Technical Report United States PNW-GTR-850 Forest Pacific Northwest Department of Service Research Station October 2011 Agriculture The Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is dedicated to the principle of multiple use management of the Nation’s forest resources for sustained yields of wood, water, forage, wildlife, and recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation with the States and private forest owners, and management of the national forests and national grasslands, it strives—as directed by Congress—to provide increasingly greater service to a growing Nation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Authors Raymond J. Davis, Northern Spotted Owl Monitoring Module Leader, Northwest Forest Plan Interagency Monitoring Program, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 2900 NW Stewart Parkway, Roseburg, OR 97471. Katie M. Dugger, associate professor, Senior Research, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331-3803. Shawne Mohoric, program manager, NWFP Interagency Monitoring Program, U.S. Department of Agricul- ture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 333 SW First Avenue, Portland, OR 97204. Louisa Evers, fire ecologist, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Oregon State Office, 333 SW First Avenue, Portland, OR 97204. William C. Aney, regional fuels specialist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 2517 SW Hailey Avenue, Pendleton, OR 97801. Cover: Photo by Peter Carlson. Preface This report is one of a set of periodic reports produced by the Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) interagency monitoring program. These reports attempt to answer questions about the effectiveness of the Plan using the latest monitoring methods and research results. The reports focus on establishing baseline information from 1994, when the Plan was approved, and reporting changes that have occurred since then. The series includes late-successional and old-growth forests, northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat, marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) population and habitat, watershed condition, government-to-government tribal relationships, socioeconomic conditions, and project implementation. These monitoring reports are also intended to identify potential is- sues and to recommend solutions for future adaptive management changes and, as noted in the first reporting cycle, to resolve information management issues that inevitably surface during these analyses. i Abstract Davis, Raymond J.; Dugger, Katie M.; Mohoric, Shawne; Evers, Louisa; Aney, William C. 2011. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 15 years (1994–2008): status and trends of northern spotted owl populations and habitats. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW- GTR-850. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 147 p. This is the second in a series of periodic monitoring reports on northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat trends on federally administered lands since implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994. Here we summarize results from a population analysis that included data from long- term demographic studies during 1985–2008. This data was analyzed separately by study area, and also in a meta-analysis across all study areas to assess temporal and spatial pat- terns in fecundity, apparent survival, recruitment, and annual rates of population change. Estimated rates of annual population decline ranged from 0.4 to 7.1 percent across federal study areas (weighted average of 2.8 percent). Covariates for barred owls (Strix varia), weather, climate, habitat, and reproductive success were analyzed and had varying degrees of association with owl demographic parameters. We now have more evidence that increas- ing numbers of barred owls and loss of nesting/roosting habitat contributed to demographic declines in some study areas. We also summarize results from a habitat analysis that used the above data in conjunc- tion with remotely sensed data from 1994 to 2007 to develop “habitat suitability” models and habitat maps. These maps were used to quantify the amount and distribution of owl habitats. We also report on causes of habitat change during this period. On federal lands, nesting/roosting habitat declined by 3.4 percent rangewide, with some physiographic provinces experiencing losses of 10 percent. Dispersal habitat increased by 5.2 percent, but dispersal-capable landscapes declined by 1 percent. Wildfire remains the leading cause of habitat loss. We developed a rangewide “wildfire suitability” model and map to illuminate the portions of the owl’s range where suitable nest- ing/roosting habitat overlaps with landscapes suitable for the occurrence of large wildfires. Barred owls and management of owl habitat in fire-prone areas continue to be topics for future monitoring, research, and management consideration. Keywords: Northwest Forest Plan, effectiveness monitoring, northern spotted owl, geographic information system, owl habitat, habitat suitability, wildfire suitability, demo- graphic study, remote sensing, predictive model, habitat model. ii Summary For the eight federal study areas associated with the Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) effectiveness monitoring program, the average rate of population decline was 2.8 percent per year. Strong evidence of declines in annual rates of population change were reported for five of the eight individual effectiveness monitoring area study sites, but confidence limits on point estimates for three areas in the center of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) range (southwest Oregon) overlapped lambda = 1.0, suggesting these three populations may not be declining. Rates of population decline were highest in the northern portions of the owl’s range (Washington and northern Oregon) where populations are estimated to have declined 40 to 60 percent since the Plan’s implementation. A variety of covariates including presence of barred owls (Strix varia), weather and long-term climate cycles, the amount of suitable nesting/roosting habitat on and adjacent to each study area, and the previous year’s reproductive success, were included in the analysis of demographic data to explore associations between them and observed population trends. These covariates had varying degrees of association with owl demographic parameters, but at least one vital rate (i.e., fecundity, apparent survival, or population) was declining on all study areas. The long-term demographic data we continue to collect are the key to understanding the range of factors that are affecting the recovery of spotted owl populations. At present, the invasion of the competitive barred owl and the amount of suitable nesting/roosting habitat are the factors most associated with spotted owl vital rates. Directly managing barred owl encroachment into spotted owl habitats may be beyond the scope of the Plan, but maintaining large blocks of suitable spotted owl habitat will likely play a key role in decreasing negative interactions between the two species and increasing the likelihood of the persistence of spotted owl populations. On federal lands, we estimated nesting/roosting habitat losses for 1994 through 2007 in California, and 1996 through 2006 in Oregon and Washington at 3.4 percent rangewide. Although rangewide losses have not yet exceeded what was anticipated under the Plan, some physiographic provinces have incurred losses up to 10 percent. This and the fact that most of the nesting/roosting habitat loss occurred within reserved land use allocations, and not within the federal matrix outside of these reserves, raises some concern. But in spite of this paradox, the large, repetitive design of reserves appears to still be functioning as intended. Of the 12 million ac of nesting/roosting habitat remaining, 71 percent occurs on federally administered lands, and approximately 70 percent of this is in reserved land use allocations (not including riparian reserves). Over half of the nesting/roosting habitat occurs in the central (core) portions of the owl’s range, within the Klamath Mountain provinces of Oregon and California (27 percent) and the western Cascades of Oregon (26 percent). Not enough time has yet elapsed for us to accurately detect or estimate any significant recruit- ment of nesting/roosting habitat; however,
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