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Climate Assessment for the Sierra Nevada Network Parks

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Climate Assessment for the Sierra Nevada Network Parks National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Climate Assessment for the Sierra Nevada Network Parks Natural Resource Report NPS/2011/NRR—2011/482 ON THE COVER Low clouds in Yosemite Valley as viewed from Olmsted Point, October 2005. Photograph by: Laura Edwards, Western Regional Climate Center. Climate Assessment for the Sierra Nevada Network Parks Natural Resource Report NPS/2011/NRR—2011/482 Laura M. Edwards and Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute 2215 Raggio Parkway Reno, Nevada 89512 December 2011 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado iii The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate high-priority, current natural resource management information with managerial application. The series targets a general, diverse audience, and may contain NPS policy considerations or address sensitive issues of management applicability. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received informal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available from the Sierra Nevada Network Inventory and Monitoring Program (http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/sien/) and the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/nrpm/). Please cite this publication as: Edwards, L. M., and K. T. Redmond. 2011. Climate assessment for the Sierra Nevada Network Parks. Natural Resource Report NPS/2011/NRR—2011/482. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 963/112131, December 2011 iv Contents Page Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. xi Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... xv Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................... xvii List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... xix I. State of Knowledge of Climate in the Sierra Nevada ................................................................. 1 Historical Climate .................................................................................................................... 4 Drought .................................................................................................................................. 24 Global Climate Change and Climate Modeling..................................................................... 25 Climate change impacts on the Sierra Nevada Network ....................................................... 36 II. Data: Existing Climate and Hydroclimate Monitoring Networks ............................................ 41 Networks Operating Weather Stations in SIEN Parks .......................................................... 41 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 47 Observations of climatic trends using Reanalysis data .......................................................... 51 III. Analysis and Discussion ......................................................................................................... 63 Grant Grove ...................................................................................................................... 99 Giant Forest ..................................................................................................................... 105 Lodgepole ....................................................................................................................... 107 RAWS Stations ............................................................................................................... 118 IV. Recommendations................................................................................................................. 120 Specific geographic recommendations ................................................................................ 121 A. Tuolumne Meadows Ranger Station ......................................................................... 121 B. High Altitude Observation ........................................................................................ 121 v Contents (continued) C. Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) ........................................................ 122 D. California Cooperative Snow Survey (CCSS) Sites .................................................. 122 E. Climate Reference Network ....................................................................................... 123 F. Devils Postpile Automated Site ................................................................................. 123 G. SIEN Climate Focal Point ......................................................................................... 123 H. Department of Interior Climate Science Centers ...................................................... 123 V. Data Access ........................................................................................................................... 125 VI. Literature Cited .................................................................................................................... 127 vi Figures Page Figure 1. Geographic setting of the Sierra Nevada Network. ........................................................ 2 Figure 2. Sierra Nevada Network area mean annual precipitation, 1961-1990, from PRISM............................................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 3. Sierra Nevada Network area mean annual snowfall, 1961-1990, from PRISM............................................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 4. Sierra Nevada Network mean annual temperature,1961-1990, from PRISM............................................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 5. Tulare County (SEQU area) temperature and precipitation time series. ..................... 10 Figure 6. Fresno County (KICA area) temperature and precipitation time series. ..................... 11 Figure 7. Madera County (DEPO, YOSE SE area) temperature and precipitation time series. .................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 8. Mariposa County (YOSE Cent/SW area) temperature and precipitation time series. .................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 9. Tuolumne County (YOSE area) temperature and precipitation time series. ................ 14 Figure 10. Madera County maximum and minimum temperature time series. ........................... 15 Figure 11. Monthly wind roses, all months of the year and all hours,for Crestview RAWS station, based on data from January 1993 through December 2007 ................................ 16 Figure 12. Pacific Decadal Oscillation spatial pattern, warm and cool phases. .......................... 17 Figure 13. Composite global El Niño and La Niña winter temperature anomalies.. ................... 20 Figure 14. Characteristic winter precipitation anomalies for El Niño and La Niña. .................. 21 Figure 15. Precipitation differences between high and low Southern Oscillation Index. ............................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 16. Graphical description of orographic precipitation effects in the Sierra Nevada. ......................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 17. Sierra Nevada winter-centered precipitation annual time series. .............................. 26 Figure 18. Seasonal temperature changes, all models, near Yosemite, 21st century. .................. 30 Figure 19. Seasonal precipitation changes, all models, near Yosemite, 21st century. ................ 33 vii Figure 20. Summary of global
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