BY Engr. Munawar Iqbal Director (Hydropower) PPIB, Ministry of Water and Power,

Kathmandu, Nepal Government of Pakistan 9-10 May 2016

C O N T E N T S

Overview of Power Mix Hydropower Potential of Pakistan Evolution of hydro model in Pakistan Salient futures of Power Policy 2002 & 2015 Success Stories in Private Sector Concluding Remarks PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - POWER MIX

Power Mix is a blend of:

• Hydel • Wind (50 MW) • Oil • Gas • Nuclear • Coal (150 MW) PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY MW % Wind Public Public Sector Private 50 MW Sector Hydel 7,013 28 Sector, Hydel, 11950, 7013, Thermal 5,458 22 47.4% 27.8% Nuclear 787 3 Total 13,258 53 Public Sector Private Sector Nuclear, Thermal, 787, 3.1% 5458, IPPs 9,528 42 21.6% K-E 2,422 10 Total Installed Capacity 25,208 MW Total 11,950 52 4 HYDROPOWER RESPONSIBILITY

PUBLIC SECTOR

• WAPDA • Provinces

PRIVATE SECTOR

• Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) • Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) • Provinces Tarbela Dam

Capacity 3,478 MW Enhanced 4,888 MW Opening date 1976 Impounds 9.7 MAF Height 143.26 m Construction 1968-1976 Mangla Dam

Coordinates 33.142083°N 73.645015°E Construction 1961-1967 Type of dam Embankment dam Impounds Jhelum River Height 147 m (482 ft) Total capacity 7.390 MAF Turbines 10 x 100 MW Capacity 1,000 MW Warsak Dam

Capacity 243 MW Impounds 25,300 acre·ft Height 76.2 m Commission 1960 Ghazi Barotha Dam

Capacity 1,450 MW Impounds 20,700 AF head 69 m Construction 1995-2004

HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION By WAPDA Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) 1 Tarbela KPK 3478 2 Warsak KPK 240 3 Jaban (Malakand-I) KPK 20 4 Dargai (Malakand-II) KPK 20 5 Kurram Garhi KPK 4 6 Mangla AJK 1000 7 Ghazi Barotha Punjab 1450 8 Chashma Punjab 184 9 Rasul Punjab 22 10 Shadiwal Punjab 6479 14 11 Nandipur Punjab 14 12 Chichoki Punjab MW 13 13 Satpara Gilgit-Baltistan 16 14 Kar Gah Phase VI Gilgit-Baltistan 4 HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 1 Malakand-III KPK 81 2 12 Small HPP KPK 3.2 3 Reshun KPK 2.8 87 MW GoAJ&K 1 Jagran AJ&K 30.4 2 Kathai AJ&K 3.2 3 5 Small HPPs AJ&K 3.1 4 Kundal Shahi AJ&K 2 38.7 MW HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) GoGILGIL-BALTISTAN 1 Naltar Gilgit Baltistan 18 2 Gilgit Gilgit Baltistan 10.63 3 Skardu-I Gilgit Baltistan 6.96 4 Chilas-I Gilgit Baltistan 5.62 5 Hunza Gilgit Baltistan 5.13 6 Shyok Gilgit Baltistan 4.85 7 Astore Gilgit Baltistan 3.11 8 Kachura Phase II Gilgit Baltistan 3 9 Ghizar, Thak, Phander Gilgit Baltistan 6 10 Bordas Gilgit Baltistan 2 Gilgit Baltistan 1 84 Small HPPs 47.7

HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) GoGILGIL-BALTISTAN 1 Naltar Gilgit Baltistan 18 2 Gilgit Gilgit Baltistan 10.63 3 Skardu-I Gilgit Baltistan 6.96 4 Chilas-I Gilgit Baltistan 5.62 5 Hunza Gilgit Baltistan 5.13 6 Shyok Gilgit Baltistan 4.85 7 Astore Gilgit Baltistan 3.11 8 Kachura Phase II Gilgit Baltistan 3 9 Ghizar Gilgit Baltistan 2 10 Thak Gilgit Baltistan 2 11 Phandar Gilgit Baltistan 2 12 Bordas Gilgit Baltistan 2 84 Small Hydropower Gilgit 113Baltistan MW 13 Projects 47.7

( less than 2 MW each) ( off Grid) C H I N A

G I L G I T B A L T I S T A N

GilgitGilgit- RiverBaltistan

Mastuj River Gilgit Frontier Undefined HYDROPOWER Chitral I ndus River Kalam Kandhia R. Khaplu Chilas Sakardu Chit ral River PanjkoraDir R. Madian Naran Sawat R. Kaghan Mangora Area of Focus Wolar Lake Malakand Neelam River Jehlum River MUZAFFARABAD Landi Kotal Mardan Sirinagar Kabul R. Punch Parachinar Peshawar ISLAMABAD K H Y B E R Punch River P A K H T U N Rawalpindi I ndus River J A M M U & K H A S H M I R K H W A Mangla

Bannu Chakwal Miramshah A F G H A N I S T A N Mianwali Jehlum River Chinab River Sargodha

Dera Ismail Khan Sheikhupura

Lahore

P U N J Faisalabad A B Zhob Jhang

Ravi River Okara Sahiwal Khaniwal Loralai Dera Ghazi Khan Vehari Sutlej River Quetta Multan Bahawalnagar Kohlo

Dadhar Bahawalpur Chagi

Kalat

Kharan Rahimyar Khan Jacobabad Shikarpur I N D I A Khuzdar Larkana B A L U C H I S T A N Khairpur I R A N

Dadu I ndus River

S I N D H

Nawabshah Turbat Sanghar

Uthal Mirpur Khas Gawadar Hyderabad Coal Reserved

Thatha THAR PARKAR Karachi ARABIAN SEA HYDROPOWER NEXT POTENTIAL

BACK Hydropower Potential – River Wise

Indus 39717 MW Jhelum 5624 MW

Swat 1803 MW Kandiah 1006 Kunhar MW others Punch 1480 MW 9704 MW 462 MW LOCATION OF HPPs ON JEHLUM RIVER

N 500 MW Chakothi Hattian HPP

AJ&K Mahl River

640 MW Azad Pattan 720 MW

HPP Karot HPP

147 MW PH Mangla Patrind HPP 590 MW Mahl HPP

PUNJAB Khyber Garhi Habibullah Pakhtunkhwa 18 BACK NEELUM VALLEY- MAJOR HYDEL SCHEMES Dudhnial 800 MW Athmuqam 350 MW Ashkot 300 MW N-J 969 MW Nara Total= 2419 MW

Janawai Kagha n

Sharda Halmat Dudhnial Toabat ATHMUQAM Jagran Legend

Kundal Shahi NEELUM RIVER Panjgran TITHWAL

BACK PROJECTS ON POONCH RIVER IN AJK

Sehra HPP

SEHRA 130 MW KOTLI 100 MW GLPUR 100 MW RAJDHANI 132 MW Total= 462 MW

KOTLI

Gulpur HPP

Gulpur

BACK PROJECTS ON 102 MW KUNHAR RIVER IN KP Batta Kundi HPP

188 MW Naran HPP Naran

870 MW Kaghan Suki Kinari HPP Bata Kundi 102 MW Naran 188 MW Paras Suki Kinari 870 MW Balakot 300 MW 300 MW Patrind 150 MW Balakot HPP Total= 1610 MW Balk ot

147 MW Patrind HPP BACK TANGUS LOCATION MAP 2100 MW RIVER INDUS Yulbo 3000 MW TRIBUTARIES KAIGAH 548 MW Diamer Bunji Basha 7100 MW 4500 MW

Dasu 4000 MW SPATGAH Duber 496 MW Khwar 130 MW

Khan PALAS Khwar 72 MW VALLEY 665MW Allai Khwar 121 MW

Warsak 243 MW Tarbela 3478 MW BACK PROJECTS ON SWAT RIVER IN KPK

Asrit Kedam HPP Kalam Asrit HPP P=215 MW P=197 MW H=214 m H=210 m

PH PH PH

PH SWAT VALLEY HPPs Madain HPP Gabral Kalam HPP P=157 MW P=137 MW H=150 m H=205 m BACK Shydo

Shydo

79 MW

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo CHITRAL Shydo 58MW

Shydo

Shydo

BACK 21125 MW

HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

24736 MW 6450 MW

7291 MW

1 MW Total 193 MW =59796 MW STATUS OF HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Under TOTAL =60000 MW Process (PPP)

Un-Tapped PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR – CURRENT SCENARIO . Demand-supply gap up to 6000 MW resulting in load-shedding of up to 8-16 hours per day . Power Planners have projected a demand of 31757 MW by the year 2020 . If 18477 MW is assumed as de-rated capacity, country would need additional 13,300 MW (net) by the year 2020, requiring an investment of $15 billion . Scarcity of funds in government sector so private sector is the next option . For private sector, govt. have issued policies both federal and provincial levels EVOLUTION OF POWER MODELS IN PAKISTAN

1958 1994 1995 1998 2002 2012 2015

PUBLIC SECTOR (WAPDA) PPP Private Sector Power Policy 1994 Hydel Policy 1995 Power Policy 1998 Power Policy 2002 Renewable Policy 2006 KPK 2006, Punjab 2006 Power Policy 2015 POLICY - Features

GENERAL FEATURES • HPPs to be developed on BOOT Basis • Concession Period allowed upto 30 years • Tariff to be calculated on COST PLUS basis • 100% foreign ownership allowed with minimum 20% equity contribution requirements • Sponsors can divest equity after six (6) years of project commissioning • Performance obligations of Power Purchaser and Provinces guaranteed by GOP • Responsibility of power transmission facilities rests with the Power Purchaser POLICY - Features

FISCAL & FINANCIAL INCENTIVES • Tax Holiday • 5% concessionary Customs Duty • Tariff adjustable for changes in Benchmark Interest Rates (LIBOR/KIBOR) • Multi-Year, Long-term Tariff • Attractive Return on Equity (ROE 17%) • Two-part tariff structure of fixed 'Capacity' and variable 'Energy' components • Conversion of Pak Rupee and remittance of Foreign Exchange ensured by GOP • Exchange rate variation for up to COD POLICY - Features

RISK PROTECTING FEATURES • Continuity of payments in case of Political Force Majeure • Protection against Change in Law Risk • Compensation Payment in case of project termination due to GOP default • Foreign component of fixed and variable O&M Cost to be indexed with US CPI • At COD, Capital Cost to be fixed in US dollars base • Periodic adjustments in the Debt Service Component to cover exchange rate variation • Hydrological Risk covered by assuring Capacity Payment upto 90%-95% of the Tariff

PROJECT AGREEMENTS

TARIFF DETERMINATION PROCESSING OF UNSOLICITED PROJECTS ON RAW SITES

Expression of Interest Feasibility Monitoring by Study POE

Reg. of not completed Investors Feasibility LOI Completed Cancelled

Proposal Successfully Completed submission Registration Cancelled Tariff Petition Project Re- before advertised NEPRA Evaluation Disapproved Ranking NEPRA Approval approved of Tariff Issuance of LOI Issuance of LOS CONTINUED………………..

Major Activities under LOS

EPC Contractor Project Agreements Land Arrange through ICB WUA, PPA, IA(s) Acquisition Financing

Environmental EPC Tariff Approval Approval

Direct Agreements

Fin. Close

Construction COD IPP MODEL BEING EXECUTED BY PPIB

CSA: Coal Supply Agreement GSA: Gas Supply Agreement PPA: Power Purchase Agreement GoP IA: Implementation Agreement DIA: Direct Implementation Agreement Tripartite DIA Provinces LOS Lenders

LOI/ LOS/ IA Financing CPPAG Gas/ Fuel GSA/ FSA

IPPs Purchase Supplier Licence NTDC

Fuel Price EPC /O&M Contracts Transmission Licence EPC/ O&M OGRA Contractors NEPRA SUCCESS STORIES SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

84 MW New Bong Escape HPP

• Project Company : Laraib Energy Limited • Main Sponsor : HUBCO, Pakistan • Lenders : ADB, IFC, IsDB, Proparco, HBL, NBP • Project Cost : 215 Million US$ • Capacity : 84 MW • Energy : 471 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 8.545 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : December 2009 • Commissioning : March 2013

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

150 MW Patrind HPP

• Project Company : Star Hydropower Limited • Main Sponsor : K-Water, Korea • Lenders : ADB, IFC, IsDB, KEXIM • Project Cost : 362.4 Million US$ • Capacity : 150 MW • Energy : 641.3 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 7.0498 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : December 2012 • Commissioning : March 2017

Project Layout

TARCHEELA VILLAGE

WEIR JHELUM RIVER

KUNHAR ① SANDTRAP RIVER MUZAFFARAB AD HEADRACE TUNNEL PATRIND VILLAGE ACCESS BRIDGE POWER HOUSE

② ① WEIR & SANDTRAP ② POWERHOUSE SURGE TANK Current Status of Works POWERHOUSE SITE

④ ③ ① ⑤

② Physical Progress Diversion Tunnel Physical Progress

Access Bridge for Powerhouse Current Status of Works WEIR SITE

④ Weir Site Camp ② DT Outlet Portal ① DT Inlet Portal ⑤ ⑤ Stock Yard (In Progress) (Water Diversion, 09 Apr (Water Diversion, 09 Apr (Completed) ④ 2013) 2013)

① ②

⑦ Weir & Sandtrap Excavation ⑥ Adit Tunnel for HRT ⑥ (In Progress) (145m Excavated) WEIR SANDTRAP

⑦

BACK SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

102 MW Gulpur HPP

Project Company : Mira Power Limited • Main Sponsor : KOSEP, Korea • Lenders : ADB, IFC, KEXIM • Project Cost : 317.17 Million US$ • Capacity : 102 MW • Energy : 475 GWh/a • Tariff (levelized) : 9.0241 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : October 2015 • Commissioning : October 2019

102 MW GULPUR HYDROPOWER PROJECT 102 MW GULPUR HYDROPOWER PROJECT

BACK SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

870 MW Suki Kinari HPP

• Project Company : Suki Kinari Private Limited • Main Sponsor : Al-Jumaia, Saudi Arabia • Lenders : CEXIM, ICB China • Project Cost : 1956.22 Million US$ • Capacity : 870 MW • Energy : 3081 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 8.8145 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : June 2016 • Commissioning : June 2021

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs -in Private Sector

1100 MW Kohala HPP • Project Company : Kohala Hydro Co. Pvt. Limited • Main Sponsor : CSAIL, CTGC China • Lenders : CEXIM, ICBC China, IFC • Project Cost : 2300 Million US$ • Capacity : 1100 MW • Energy : 5093 GWh/a • Feasibility Tariff (levelized) : 7.2365 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : December 2017 • Commissioning : December 2023-24

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs -in Private Sector 720 MW Karot HPP • Project Company : Karot Power Co. Pvt. Ltd • Main Sponsor : CSAIL, CTGC China • Lenders : CEXIM, ICBC, IFC, SRF • Project Cost : 1698.26 Million US$ • Capacity : 720 MW • Energy : 3174 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 7.6152 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : August 2016 • Commissioning : August 2021 PUBLIC SECTOR PROJECT

969 MW NEELUM JHELUM HYDROPOWER PROJECT NEELUM JHELUM LAYOUT PLAN BACK INTRO PPIB’s PORTFOLIO OF UPCOMING PRIVATE POWER PROJECTS (IPPs)

Hydel Coal Gas Total No. of Description/ Year (MW) Projects MW No. MW No. MW No.

2017 150 1 3,300 3 0 0 3,450 4

2018 0 0 2,640 2 1000 4 3,640 6

2019 232 2 1910 4 0 0 2,142 6

2020 1,360 2 0 0 0 0 1,360 2

2021 870 1 0 0 0 0 870 1

2022 2,033 5 0 0 120 1 2,153 6

2023 1,690 2 0 0 0 0 1,690 2

2024 1,088 4 0 0 0 0 1,088 4

2025 80 1 0 0 0 0 80 1

Grand Total 7,503 18 7,850 9 1120 5 16,473 32

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How Hydropower is Renewable

The circulation of earth’s water as it circulates from the land to the sky and back again is called the ‘hydrological cycle’ or ‘water cycle’.

Methematical Concept

Renewable NON-Renewable P =ρ.g. η. QH

P = 8.5 x Q H (SI Units)

Head = H , Discharge = Q  CASA-1000 POWER SUPPLY PROJECT TO BE INAUGURATED ON MAY 12, 2016  The project, signed between Tajikistan and Pakistan, would be completed at a cost of $1.2 billion in two years

 The Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) 1000 project to supply one thousand megawatts electricity from Tajikistan to Pakistan would formally be inaugurated in Dushanbe on Thursday.  The project, signed between Tajikistan and Pakistan, would be completed at a cost of 1.2 billion dollars in two years.  The project would help Pakistan get cheaper and clean energy to minimize its electricity shortages.  Afghanistan has already given a guarantee to ensure security of 750 km long transmission line.  According to Ambassador of Tajikistan to Pakistan, all arrangements including necessary financial resources have been made to undertake the project forthwith. www.ppib.gov.pk