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Risk Management and Public Perception of Hydropower BY Engr. Munawar Iqbal Director (Hydropower) PPIB, Ministry of Water and Power, Kathmandu, Nepal Government of Pakistan 9-10 May 2016 C O N T E N T S Overview of Power Mix Hydropower Potential of Pakistan Evolution of hydro model in Pakistan Salient futures of Power Policy 2002 & 2015 Success Stories in Private Sector Concluding Remarks PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - POWER MIX Power Mix is a blend of: • Hydel • Wind (50 MW) • Oil • Gas • Nuclear • Coal (150 MW) PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY MW % Wind Public Public Sector Private 50 MW Sector Hydel 7,013 28 Sector, Hydel, 11950, 7013, Thermal 5,458 22 47.4% 27.8% Nuclear 787 3 Total 13,258 53 Public Sector Private Sector Nuclear, Thermal, 787, 3.1% 5458, IPPs 9,528 42 21.6% K-E 2,422 10 Total Installed Capacity 25,208 MW Total 11,950 52 4 HYDROPOWER RESPONSIBILITY PUBLIC SECTOR • WAPDA • Provinces PRIVATE SECTOR • Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) • Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) • Provinces Tarbela Dam Capacity 3,478 MW Enhanced 4,888 MW Opening date 1976 Impounds 9.7 MAF Height 143.26 m Construction 1968-1976 Mangla Dam Coordinates 33.142083°N 73.645015°E Construction 1961-1967 Type of dam Embankment dam Impounds Jhelum River Height 147 m (482 ft) Total capacity 7.390 MAF Turbines 10 x 100 MW Capacity 1,000 MW Warsak Dam Capacity 243 MW Impounds 25,300 acre·ft Height 76.2 m Commission 1960 Ghazi Barotha Dam Capacity 1,450 MW Impounds 20,700 AF head 69 m Construction 1995-2004 HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION By WAPDA Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) 1 Tarbela KPK 3478 2 Warsak KPK 240 3 Jaban (Malakand-I) KPK 20 4 Dargai (Malakand-II) KPK 20 5 Kurram Garhi KPK 4 6 Mangla AJK 1000 7 Ghazi Barotha Punjab 1450 8 Chashma Punjab 184 9 Rasul Punjab 22 10 Shadiwal Punjab 6479 14 11 Nandipur Punjab 14 12 Chichoki Punjab MW 13 13 Satpara Gilgit-Baltistan 16 14 Kar Gah Phase VI Gilgit-Baltistan 4 HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 1 Malakand-III KPK 81 2 12 Small HPP KPK 3.2 3 Reshun KPK 2.8 87 MW GoAJ&K 1 Jagran AJ&K 30.4 2 Kathai AJ&K 3.2 3 5 Small HPPs AJ&K 3.1 4 Kundal Shahi AJ&K 2 38.7 MW HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) GoGILGIL-BALTISTAN 1 Naltar Gilgit Baltistan 18 2 Gilgit Gilgit Baltistan 10.63 3 Skardu-I Gilgit Baltistan 6.96 4 Chilas-I Gilgit Baltistan 5.62 5 Hunza Gilgit Baltistan 5.13 6 Shyok Gilgit Baltistan 4.85 7 Astore Gilgit Baltistan 3.11 8 Kachura Phase II Gilgit Baltistan 3 9 Ghizar, Thak, Phander Gilgit Baltistan 6 10 Bordas Gilgit Baltistan 2 Gilgit Baltistan 1 84 Small HPPs 47.7 HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION Installed S# Name of Project Province Capacity (MW) GoGILGIL-BALTISTAN 1 Naltar Gilgit Baltistan 18 2 Gilgit Gilgit Baltistan 10.63 3 Skardu-I Gilgit Baltistan 6.96 4 Chilas-I Gilgit Baltistan 5.62 5 Hunza Gilgit Baltistan 5.13 6 Shyok Gilgit Baltistan 4.85 7 Astore Gilgit Baltistan 3.11 8 Kachura Phase II Gilgit Baltistan 3 9 Ghizar Gilgit Baltistan 2 10 Thak Gilgit Baltistan 2 11 Phandar Gilgit Baltistan 2 12 Bordas Gilgit Baltistan 2 84 Small Hydropower Gilgit 113Baltistan MW 13 Projects 47.7 ( less than 2 MW each) ( off Grid) C H I N A G I L G I T B A L T I S T A N GilgitGilgit- BaltistanRiver Mastuj River Gilgit Frontier Undefined HYDROPOWER Chitral I ndus River Kalam Kandhia R. Khaplu Chilas Sakardu Chit ral River PanjkoraDir R. Madian Naran Sawat R. Kaghan Mangora Area of Focus Wolar Lake Malakand Neelam River Jehlum River MUZAFFARABAD Landi Kotal Mardan Sirinagar Kabul R. Punch Parachinar Peshawar ISLAMABAD K H Y B E R Punch River P A K H T U N Rawalpindi I ndus River J A M M U & K H A S H M I R K H W A Mangla Bannu Chakwal Miramshah A F G H A N I S T A N Mianwali Jehlum River Chinab River Sargodha Dera Ismail Khan Sheikhupura Lahore P U N J Faisalabad A B Zhob Jhang Ravi River Okara Sahiwal Khaniwal Loralai Dera Ghazi Khan Vehari Sutlej River Quetta Multan Bahawalnagar Kohlo Dadhar Bahawalpur Chagi Kalat Kharan Rahimyar Khan Jacobabad Shikarpur I N D I A Khuzdar Larkana B A L U C H I S T A N Khairpur I R A N Dadu I ndus River S I N D H Nawabshah Turbat Sanghar Uthal Mirpur Khas Gawadar Hyderabad Coal Reserved Thatha THAR PARKAR Karachi ARABIAN SEA HYDROPOWER NEXT POTENTIAL BACK Hydropower Potential – River Wise Indus 39717 MW Jhelum 5624 MW Swat 1803 MW Kandiah 1006 Kunhar MW others Punch 1480 MW 9704 MW 462 MW LOCATION OF HPPs ON JEHLUM RIVER N 500 MW Chakothi Hattian HPP AJ&K Mahl River Mahl 640 MW Azad Pattan 720 MW HPP Karot HPP 147 MW PH Mangla Patrind HPP 590 MW Mahl HPP PUNJAB Khyber Garhi Habibullah Pakhtunkhwa 18 BACK NEELUM VALLEY- MAJOR HYDEL SCHEMES Dudhnial 800 MW Athmuqam 350 MW Ashkot 300 MW N-J 969 MW Nara Total= 2419 MW Janawai Kagha n Sharda Halmat Dudhnial Toabat ATHMUQAM Jagran Legend Kundal Shahi NEELUM RIVER Panjgran TITHWAL BACK PROJECTS ON POONCH RIVER IN AJK Sehra HPP SEHRA 130 MW KOTLI 100 MW GLPUR 100 MW RAJDHANI 132 MW Total= 462 MW KOTLI Gulpur HPP Gulpur BACK PROJECTS ON 102 MW KUNHAR RIVER IN KP Batta Kundi HPP 188 MW Naran HPP Naran 870 MW Kaghan Suki Kinari HPP Bata Kundi 102 MW Naran 188 MW Paras Suki Kinari 870 MW Balakot 300 MW 300 MW Patrind 150 MW Balakot HPP Total= 1610 MW Balk ot 147 MW Patrind HPP BACK TANGUS LOCATION MAP 2100 MW RIVER INDUS Yulbo 3000 MW TRIBUTARIES KAIGAH 548 MW Diamer Bunji Basha 7100 MW 4500 MW Dasu 4000 MW SPATGAH Duber 496 MW Khwar 130 MW Khan PALAS Khwar 72 MW VALLEY 665MW Allai Khwar 121 MW Warsak 243 MW Tarbela 3478 MW BACK PROJECTS ON SWAT RIVER IN KPK Asrit Kedam HPP Kalam Asrit HPP P=215 MW P=197 MW H=214 m H=210 m PH PH PH PH SWAT VALLEY HPPs Madain HPP Gabral Kalam HPP P=157 MW P=137 MW H=150 m H=205 m BACK Shydo Shydo 79 MW Shydo Shydo Shydo CHITRAL Shydo 58MW Shydo Shydo BACK 21125 MW HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL 24736 MW 6450 MW 7291 MW 1 MW Total 193 MW =59796 MW STATUS OF HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN Under TOTAL =60000 MW Process (PPP) Un-Tapped PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR – CURRENT SCENARIO . Demand-supply gap up to 6000 MW resulting in load-shedding of up to 8-16 hours per day . Power Planners have projected a demand of 31757 MW by the year 2020 . If 18477 MW is assumed as de-rated capacity, country would need additional 13,300 MW (net) by the year 2020, requiring an investment of $15 billion . Scarcity of funds in government sector so private sector is the next option . For private sector, govt. have issued policies both federal and provincial levels EVOLUTION OF POWER MODELS IN PAKISTAN 1958 1994 1995 1998 2002 2012 2015 PUBLIC SECTOR (WAPDA) PPP Private Sector Power Policy 1994 Hydel Policy 1995 Power Policy 1998 Power Policy 2002 Renewable Policy 2006 KPK 2006, Punjab 2006 Power Policy 2015 POLICY - Features GENERAL FEATURES • HPPs to be developed on BOOT Basis • Concession Period allowed upto 30 years • Tariff to be calculated on COST PLUS basis • 100% foreign ownership allowed with minimum 20% equity contribution requirements • Sponsors can divest equity after six (6) years of project commissioning • Performance obligations of Power Purchaser and Provinces guaranteed by GOP • Responsibility of power transmission facilities rests with the Power Purchaser POLICY - Features FISCAL & FINANCIAL INCENTIVES • Tax Holiday • 5% concessionary Customs Duty • Tariff adjustable for changes in Benchmark Interest Rates (LIBOR/KIBOR) • Multi-Year, Long-term Tariff • Attractive Return on Equity (ROE 17%) • Two-part tariff structure of fixed 'Capacity' and variable 'Energy' components • Conversion of Pak Rupee and remittance of Foreign Exchange ensured by GOP • Exchange rate variation for up to COD POLICY - Features RISK PROTECTING FEATURES • Continuity of payments in case of Political Force Majeure • Protection against Change in Law Risk • Compensation Payment in case of project termination due to GOP default • Foreign component of fixed and variable O&M Cost to be indexed with US CPI • At COD, Capital Cost to be fixed in US dollars base • Periodic adjustments in the Debt Service Component to cover exchange rate variation • Hydrological Risk covered by assuring Capacity Payment upto 90%-95% of the Tariff PROJECT AGREEMENTS TARIFF DETERMINATION PROCESSING OF UNSOLICITED PROJECTS ON RAW SITES Expression of Interest Feasibility Monitoring by Study POE Reg. of not completed Investors Feasibility LOI Completed Cancelled Proposal Successfully Completed submission Registration Cancelled Tariff Petition Project Re- before advertised NEPRA Evaluation Disapproved Ranking NEPRA Approval approved of Tariff Issuance of LOI Issuance of LOS CONTINUED……………….. Major Activities under LOS EPC Contractor Project Agreements Land Arrange through ICB WUA, PPA, IA(s) Acquisition Financing Environmental EPC Tariff Approval Approval Direct Agreements Fin. Close Construction COD IPP MODEL BEING EXECUTED BY PPIB CSA: Coal Supply Agreement GSA: Gas Supply Agreement PPA: Power Purchase Agreement GoP IA: Implementation Agreement DIA: Direct Implementation Agreement Tripartite DIA Provinces LOS Lenders LOI/ LOS/ IA Financing CPPAG Gas/ Fuel GSA/ FSA IPPs Purchase Supplier Licence NTDC Fuel Price EPC /O&M Contracts Transmission Licence EPC/ O&M OGRA Contractors NEPRA SUCCESS STORIES SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector 84 MW New Bong Escape HPP • Project Company : Laraib Energy Limited • Main Sponsor : HUBCO, Pakistan • Lenders : ADB, IFC, IsDB, Proparco, HBL, NBP • Project Cost : 215 Million US$ • Capacity : 84 MW • Energy : 471 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 8.545 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : December 2009 • Commissioning : March 2013 SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private
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