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An Investigation of Snow and Ice Phenology in the Arctic from 1997 – 2019

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An Investigation of Snow and Ice Phenology in the Arctic from 1997 – 2019 An Investigation of Snow and Ice Phenology in the Arctic from 1997 – 2019 by Alicia Loreta Adele Dauginis A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Department of Geography and Planning University of Toronto © Copyright by Alicia Loreta Adele Dauginis 2020 An Investigation of Surface Snow and Ice Cover in the Arctic from 1997 – 2019 Alicia Loreta Adele Dauginis Master of Science Department of Geography and Planning University of Toronto 2020 Abstract This study investigates the use of finer-resolution satellite observations for monitoring snow and ice phenology in the Arctic. The primary data used were the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow and ice products from 1997 – 2019. Snow and ice phenology were examined by detecting the first and last dates of snow and ice on and off. The largest trends in earlier ice-off dates and later ice-on dates were detected in the Alaska/Russia region, while earlier snow-onset trends were detected across Canada and Eurasia. Sea ice freeze in the Canadian Arctic is shifting earlier, while freeze onset across Eurasia continues to become later, likely due to strong warming across the region. In the Canadian Arctic, significant correlations were identified between snow and ice on/off parameters, and at the pan-Arctic scale, lake ice phenology parameters showed significant correlations to snow and sea ice parameters during the melt season. ii Acknowledgments I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Laura Brown for her leadership and guidance over the past three years (from undergraduate to Master’s) at the University of Toronto Mississauga. Dr. Brown has provided me with multiple opportunities to attend conferences, involvement in numerous projects related to my research, and experience doing field work related to snow and ice. Dr. Brown has been an excellent mentor and supervisor over the past three years, and without her guidance and knowledge this work would have not been possible. I would also like to thank the University of Toronto Mississauga Graduate Expansion Fund for providing me with funding to attend conferences and workshops related to my research over the past two years. Additionally, I would like to thank current and recent members of the Cryosphere Research Lab at the University of Toronto Mississauga including Alexis Robinson and Justin Murfitt. I would also like to thank Stephen Howell and Michael Brady from Environment Canada for their valuable input and technical support. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Appendices ...........................................................................................................................x Chapter 1 ..........................................................................................................................................1 General Introduction ...................................................................................................................1 1.1 Motivation ............................................................................................................................1 1.2 Significance..........................................................................................................................2 1.3 Literature Review.................................................................................................................3 1.3.1 Arctic Amplification ................................................................................................3 1.3.2 Observed Changes in Snow Cover ..........................................................................4 1.3.3 Observed Changes in Sea Ice ...................................................................................7 1.3.4 Observed Changes in Lake Ice ................................................................................9 1.3.5 Remote Sensing of Snow .......................................................................................10 1.3.6 Remote Sensing of Sea Ice ....................................................................................13 1.3.7 Remote Sensing of Lake Ice ..................................................................................15 1.3.8 IMS ........................................................................................................................18 1.4 Objectives and Thesis Structure.........................................................................................20 1.5 References ..........................................................................................................................22 Chapter 2 ........................................................................................................................................39 Sea ice and Snow Phenology in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1997 – 2018 .............39 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................39 iv 2.2 Study Area .........................................................................................................................42 2.3 Data and Methodology .......................................................................................................44 2.3.1 Data ........................................................................................................................44 2.3.2 Methodology ..........................................................................................................45 2.4 Results and Discussion ......................................................................................................47 2.4.1 Temporal Variability and Links Between Sea Ice and Snow Phenology ..............47 2.4.2 Regional Variability and Links in Sea Ice and Snow Phenology ..........................62 2.5 Conclusion .........................................................................................................................68 2.6 References ..........................................................................................................................71 Chapter 3 ........................................................................................................................................82 Pan-Arctic Sea Ice, Lake Ice, and Snow Phenology from 1997 – 2019 ...................................82 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................82 3.2 Data and Methodology .......................................................................................................86 3.2.1 Study Regions ........................................................................................................86 3.2.2 Data ........................................................................................................................87 3.2.3 Methodology ..........................................................................................................88 3.3 Results and Discussion ......................................................................................................90 3.3.1 Trends and Correlations .........................................................................................90 3.3.2 Regional Variability ...............................................................................................96 3.4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................106 3.5 References ........................................................................................................................108 Chapter 4 ......................................................................................................................................117 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................117 References ...............................................................................................................................120 Appendices ...................................................................................................................................121 v List of Tables Table 2.1. Sea ice and snow phenology parameters and definitions used in this study. ............... 46 Table 2.2. Spearman rank correlation coefficient (ρ) for 24 km and 4 km IMS products (2004 - 2018). Bold indicates significance at 95%. ................................................................................... 46 Table 2.3. Earliest and latest sea ice and snow phenology years and respective dates (day of year) detected by the 24 and 4 km IMS products. ** indicates that the 4 km product identified the same year as the 24 km product from 2004 – 2018. .............................................................................. 49 Table 2.4. Spearman rank correlations (ρ) for snow and sea
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