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Jobs AID Peace JOBS AID PEACE A Review of the Theory and Practice of the Impact of Employment Programmes on Peace in Fragile and Conflict-affected Countries Tilman Brück, Neil T. N. Ferguson, Valeria Izzi & Wolfgang Stojetz 16 September 2016 This report was prepared for and with support from the International Labour Organization (ILO), Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank Group (WBG). Acknowledging the different mandates of the institutions that supported the report (ILO, PBSO, UNDP and WBG) and areas of expertise, the findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in the report do not necessarily constitute the views or formal recommendations of the ILO, PBSO, UNDP and WBG, nor do they reflect the views of the governing bodies of these institutions or their Member States. ILO, PBSO, UNDP and WBG cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of ILO, PBSO, UNDP or WBG any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.The agencies are greatly thankful to the Governments of Norway and Switzerland for their financing of this trust fund. Published on 16 September 2016 in Berlin, Germany. This version: © held by the authors, 2016. Creative Commons licence: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International This report was jointly researched and written by Tilman Brück (lead author), Neil T.N. Ferguson, Valeria Izzi and Wolfgang Stojetz. Professor Tilman Brück is Director, ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, and Co-Director of the Households in Conflict Network ([email protected]). Dr. Neil T.N. Ferguson is Research Affiliate at ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin (neil. [email protected]). Dr. Valeria Izzi is Honorary Fellow, Centre of African Studies, University of Edinburgh ([email protected]). Dr. Wolfgang Stojetz is Research Affiliate at ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin (wolfgang. [email protected]). ISDC – International Security and Development Center is a Berlin-based, non-for-profit research centre conducting research, providing policy advice and building capacity on international security and socio-economic development. ISDC is unique in the global research scene for being dedicated to work exclusively on the security-development nexus. Further information can be found at www.isd-center.org JOBS AID PEACE 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................VI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................VI LIST OF MAIN ACRONYMS ..............................................................................................................VII LIST OF FIGURES, TaBLES AND BOXES ........................................................................................VIII FOREWORD ......................................................................................................................................IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... X 1. INTRODUCTION: CONTEXT 1 1.1 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 2 1.2 DEFINITIONS.................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 STUDY METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 SCOPE AND PaRAMETERS OF THE RESEARCH ............................................................................................. 7 1.4.1 Literature ............................................................................................................................................................7 1.4.2 Document Review ...............................................................................................................................................7 1.4.3 Field Visits ...........................................................................................................................................................8 1.4.4 Workshops ..........................................................................................................................................................9 1.5 GENDER CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 9 1.6 INNOVATIONS................................................................................................................................................. 9 1.7 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................................. 10 1.8 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................................... 12 1.9 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT ...................................................................................................................... 14 2. RATIONALE: WHY INTERVENE? .................................................................................................. 15 2.1 CONCEPTS ................................................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 CHANNELS OF IMPACT, THEORIES OF CHANGE AND TRANSFER MECHANISMS ........................................ 16 2.2.1 Transfer Mechanism 1: Contact .......................................................................................................................17 2.2.2 Transfer Mechanism 2: Grievance ...................................................................................................................19 2.2.3 Transfer Mechanism 1: Opportunity ................................................................................................................21 2.3 CONTEXTUALIZING THE THEORIES OF CHANGE .......................................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Unpacking Pre-/violent Behaviour ...................................................................................................................22 2.3.2 Gender Aspects of the Theories of Change .....................................................................................................23 2.3.3 The Socio-Economic Context ...........................................................................................................................23 2.3.4 Conflict Analyses and the Theories of Change ................................................................................................24 2.3.5 Micro- vs. Macro-level Considerations ............................................................................................................26 2.3.6 Empirical Evidence for the Link between Employment Programmes and Peace at the Micro Level ..........26 2.3.7 The Existence of Job Channels ........................................................................................................................27 2.3.8 Assessing Impact ..............................................................................................................................................27 2.3.9 ‘Do No Harm’ and Negative Externalities .......................................................................................................29 2.3.10 The Role of the Context ..................................................................................................................................30 2.3.11 Overlaps in the Theories of Change ...............................................................................................................30 2.4 EVIDENCE FOR THE THEORIES OF CHANGE FROM THE REVIEW OF INTERVENTIONS................................. 31 2.4.1 Programme Example: Guinea-Bissau .............................................................................................................33 2.4.2 Programme Example: Lebanon .......................................................................................................................33 2.4.3 Programme Example: Nepal ...........................................................................................................................34 JOBS AID PEACE 3 2.5 EVIDENCE FOR THE THEORIES OF CHANGE FROM THE CASE STUDIES ...................................................... 35 2.5.1 Lebanon ............................................................................................................................................................35 2.5.2 Liberia ...............................................................................................................................................................36 2.5.3 Timor-Leste ......................................................................................................................................................37 3. EXPERIENCE: WHAT HAS BEEN DONE? ..................................................................................... 42 3.1 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PROGRAMME LoNGLIST............................................................................
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