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competition commission south africa DATA SERVICES MARKET INQUIRY FINAL REPORT NON-CONFIDENTIAL YEARS 2 DECEMBER 2019 competition regulation for a growing and inclusive economy TABLE OF CONTENTS: 02 LIST OF TABLES 05 LIST OF FIGURES 10 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 13 SUMMARY OF FINAL FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 33 1. Introduction 35 2. Overview of the provision of data services 46 3. International price comparisons and the level of prices 81 4. Mobile competition – retail 119 5. The structure of data prices and “anti-poor” pricing 172 6. Cost drivers – spectrum and facilities access issues 197 7. Mobile competition – wholesale 223 8. Fixed line supply gap 247 9. Recommendations 275 10. Appendix A: Price differentials data 279 11. Appendix B: International price comparisons 293 12. Appendix C: Regulatory intervention on MVNO access 296 13. Appendix D: Alternative fixed line access 302 14. Appendix E: Submission to ICASA on the assignment of spectrum in light of the Policy Directive issued on 26 July 2019 NON-CONFIDENTIAL FINAL REPORT 1 List of Tables 16 Table 1: 97 Table 11: Vodacom financial performance in South EBITDA margins of MTN over a five-year Africa and other markets (FY2019) period 16 Table 2: 98 Table 12: Vodacom South Africa’s price-cost mark- EBITDA margins, capital intensity and ups, FY2014 - FY2019 market share of MTN across countries (Year ended 31 December 2018) 49 Table 3: Replica of Table 3 of the Provisional Report 98 Table 13: - Prices for MTN prepaid data bundles ROCE of MTN over a 4-year period across countries (USD) (2017) 99 Table 14: 67 Table 4: Vodacom South Africa’s revenue and costs Tarifica overall rankings of mobile prepaid (Rm), FY2014 - FY2019 data-only plans (PPP) (Q1 2019) 100 Table 15: 68 Table 5: Vodacom South Africa’s total capital Tarifica overall rankings of mobile postpaid employed (Rm), FY2013 - FY2019 data-only plans (Q1 2019) 100 Table 16: 72 Table 6: Vodacom South Africa’s cost of capital (Rm), Vodacom South Africa 1GB data prices per FY2014 - FY2019 validity period (2017 and 2019) 101 Table 17: 72 Table 7: Vodacom South Africa’s price-cost mark-up, MTN South Africa 1GB data prices per FY2014 - FY2019 validity period (2017 and 2019) 101 Table 18: 95 Table 8: Vodacom South Africa’s actual return versus Vodacom's profitability analysis over a five- fair return (Rm), FY2014 - FY2019 year period 102 Table 19: 96 Table 9: The Vodacom Group’s price-cost mark-up, EBIT and EBITDA margins, capital intensity FY2014 - FY2019 and market share of Vodacom across countries (%) (year ended 31 March 2019) 103 Table 20: Vodacom International’s price-cost mark-up 97 Table 10: estimate, FY2014 - FY2019 ROCE of Vodacom over a 5-year period DATA SERVICES MARKET INQUIRY 2 103 Table 21: 120 Table 30: Vodacom International’s actual return Replica of Table 15 of Provisional Report - versus fair return, FY2014 - FY2019 Effective prices for various bands of data usage on the MTN Network (July 2018) 104 Table 22: MTN South Africa’s revenue and costs (Rm), 121 Table 31: FY2014 - FY2018 Replica of Table 16 of the Provisional Report - Effective prices for various bands 104 Table 23: of data usage on the Vodacom network MTN South Africa’s total capital employed (indexed) (Jan 2016-Aug 2018) (Rm), FY2014 - FY2018 133 Table 32: 105 Table 24: Effective prices for various bands of data MTN South Africa’s cost of capital (Rm), usage on the MTN Network (July 2018) FY2015 - FY2018 136 Table 33: 105 Table 25: MTN sample size (MSISDN-tariff MTN South Africa’s price-cost mark-up, combinations) used to generate Figure 7 of FY2015 - FY2018 MTN's Appendix C, February-July 2018 106 Table 26: 144 Table 34: MTN South Africa’s actual return versus fair ARPU relative to household income per return, FY2015 - FY2018 person, 2019 106 Table 27: 149 Table 35: MTN Group’s price-cost mark-up, FY2015 - Utilisation (paid only) by bundle size and FY2018 validity, 2018 107 Table 28: 150 Table 36: MTN Group’s actual return versus fair Utilization (paid only) of [] bundles by return, FY2014 - FY2019 income segment, July-December 2018 119 Table 29: Replica of Table 12 of Provisional 151 Table 37: Report - The extent to which the implied Utilization (paid only) of [] bundles by prices of smaller bundles (i.e. 5MB, 10MB, income segment, August 2018-April 2019 50MB, & 100MB) in South Africa exceed the prices of larger bundles (i.e. 1GB & 2GB) 205 Table 38: (Dec 2018) Estimates of spectrum per 100 000 customers NON-CONFIDENTIAL FINAL REPORT 3 217 Table 39: 283 Table 49: Average monthly changes in the roaming Non-price indicators price under the MTN/Cell C roaming agreement and the average monthly 287 Table 50: change in MTN’s effective price per GB CAPEX and OPEX savings relative to total CAPEX and OPEX had spectrum been 219 Table 40: assigned, 2012-2018 Average monthly changes in the roaming price under the Vodacom/Telkom roaming 304 Table 51: agreement and the average monthly Current spectrum allocation and CSIR change in Vodacom’s effective price per GB recommended minimum for WOAN 229 Table 41: IP Connect's price reductions over time 230 Table 42: Openserve IP Connect Price versus Vumatel and Frogfoot prices as submitted by stakeholders (2019) 230 Table 43: Estimated access fees on a 20 mbps FTTH product for Openserve and Vumatel per subscriber 231 Table 44: Telkom's 2017-2018 (Rm) IPC price-cost mark-up 232 Table 45: IP Connect's revenue and costs as a proportion to Openserve overall costs and revenue (FY2018) 234 Table 46: IP Connect EBITDA margins (Rm) for 2017- 2018 financial year 279 Table 47: Assessment of price changes per country in Figure 15 of Provisional Report in local currencies (updated to Q3 2019) 279 Table 48: Assessment of price changes per country in Figure 17 of Provisional Report in local currencies (updated to Q3 2019) DATA SERVICES MARKET INQUIRY 4 List of Figures 14 Figure 1: 47 Figure 11: Mobile prepaid data prices in USD (PPP), Replica of Figure 5 of the Provisional Report 500MB (2017) - Mobile prepaid data prices for BRICS in USD (PPP), 500MB (2016) 14 Figure 2: Comparison of 1GB price for SA against 36 48 Figure 12: African countries (Q3 2015 to Q3 2019) Replica of Figure 6 of the Provisional Report – Mobile prepaid data prices for African 15 Figure 3: countries in USD (PPP), 500MB (2016) Vodacom 1GB tariffs across Africa (2019) 48 Figure 13: 15 Figure 4: Replica of Figure 18 of the Provisional MTN 1GB retail data tariffs across Africa Report – SA rank for 1GB price against 41 (2019) African countries (Q3 2015 – Q2 2018) 17 Figure 5: 58 Figure 14: Example of Vodacom's price discrimination Mobile prepaid data prices in USD (PPP), by bundle size (2019) 500MB (2016) 20 Figure 6: 58 Figure 15: Price disparities between prepaid and Mobile prepaid data prices for BRICS in postpaid data plans on Vodacom USD (PPP), 500MB (2016) 35 Figure 7: 59 Figure 16: Data contribution to operator service Mobile prepaid data prices in Africa in USD revenue (2015-2018*) (PPP), 500MB (2016) 36 Figure 8: 60 Figure 17: Vodacom national coverage by technology Mobile prepaid data prices in USD (PPP), layer (Jan 2015-Dec 2018) 500MB (2017) 39 Figure 9: 60 Figure 18: Telecommunications sector Value Chain Mobile prepaid data prices for BRICS in USD (PPP), 500MB (2017) 47 Figure 10: Replica of Figure 4 of the Provisional Report 61 Figure 19: - Mobile prepaid data prices in USD (PPP), Mobile prepaid data prices in Africa in USD 500MB (2016) (PPP), 500MB (2017) NON-CONFIDENTIAL FINAL REPORT 5 62 Figure 20: 76 Figure 33: Mobile postpaid data prices in USD (PPP), CAGR per country for 13 African countries 1GB (2017) from Q2 2014 62 Figure 21: 77 Figure 34: Mobile postpaid data prices for BRICS in CAGR per country in Figure 17 of USD (PPP), 1GB (2017) Provisional Report (updated to Q3 2019) 62 Figure 22: 87 Figure 35: Mobile postpaid data prices for African Operator market share for Service Revenue, countries in USD (PPP), 1GB (2017) (2018)* 63 Figure 23: 88 Figure 36: Fixed data prices in USD (PPP), minimum Operator market share for Data Revenue, 1GB data cap per month (2017) (2018)* 64 Figure 24: 88 Figure 37: Comparison of 1GB price for SA against 11 Operator market share by Subscribers, African countries (Q2 2014 to Q3 2019) (2018)* 64 Figure 25: 89 Figure 38: SA rank for 1GB price against 11 African Historical Operator Service Revenue share, countries (Q2 2014 to Q3 2019) 2015 - 2018* 65 Figure 26: 89 Figure 39: Comparison of 1GB price for SA against 36 Historical Operator Data Revenue share, African countries (Q3 2015 to Q3 2019) 2015 - 2018* 65 Figure 27: 90 Figure 40: SA rank for 1GB price against 36 African Historical Operator Subscriber share, 2016 countries (Q3 2015 to Q3 2019) - 2018* 69 Figure 28: 91 Figure 41: Vodacom 1GB data costs across Africa Operator market share, Prepaid Data (2019) Revenue (Q3 2016 - Q1 2019) 70 Figure 29: 92 Figure 42: MTN 1GB data costs across Africa (2019) Operator Data Traffic market share (June 2016 - March 2019) 71 Figure 30: Vodacom 1GB retail data tariffs across 110 Figure 43: Africa (2017 vs 2019) 1GB prepaid bundles valid 1 month (in Rands) 71 Figure 31: MTN 1GB retail data tariffs across Africa 115 Figure 44: (2017 vs 2019) Record of Vodacom’s responses to Telkom’s monthly “big deals” 73 Figure 32: Global ICT indices measure overall ICT & broadband performance DATA SERVICES MARKET INQUIRY 6 130 Figure 45: 148 Figure 56: Example of Vodacom's price discrimination Sales (paid only) of selected bundles, by bundle size (2019) January 2016 - April 2019 134 Figure 46: 152 Figure 57: MTN’s paid in-bundle data usage
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